Soldiers of Fortune?

The geopolitical situation around Pakistan is so complex one cannot definitely say
where lies the fault line. There are political, sectarian, and ethic dimensions to a
Hydra headed conflict which, with the passage of time, keeps evolving into more
complex forms. It is an open secret that, for the last many years , those who matter
in Pakistan have looked the other way while Iran and Saudi Arabia fought their
proxy wars in Pakistan and its neighborhood. During the last few years Hazara ( a
Shia minority community in Balochistan) people have been routinely butchered
while travelling to pay homage to Shia holy shrines in Iran and Iraq. All of them,
however, are not simply Shia pilgrims. Some of them are Shia holy warriors
recruited by Iran to fight its proxy wars in Iraq and Syria. Not to be left behind,
Saudi Arabia also recruits and ships Sunni fanatics to fight its sectarian wars in the
arc of crisis extending from Lebanon to Afghanistan.
These soldiers of fortune are being recruited, through Saudi and Iranian money, by
various Pakistani religious outfits. The writer has interviewed some Pakistanis
belonging to the tribal areas. One of them told him that twenty people from his
village in Dir alone had gone to fight, may be in Syria or Iraq, he was not sure.
After a few months only eight of them returned. What happened to the rest is not
known. Similar replies were received from the others. This has been going on for
more than a year.
Pakistans dynamics of power are governed by two prominent centres of gravitythe civil government and the military ( more aptly the army). How do these centres
of gravity deal with this multi-dimensional war aimed at gaining the upper hand in
this volatile region?
According to the grapevine, last year there were three bones of contention between
Nawaz Sharifs government and the army:1. Relations with India : It is common perception in the army circles that
Nawaz wants to defang the army to please India.
2. Operation in North Waziristan : Fearing a militant backlash in his native
Punjab, Nawaz Sharif was shadow boxing with the Taliban. He wasted one
year in this. The army wanted to crack down. After the Karachi airport
episode, Nawaz willy nilly sanctioned the much delayed operation. Those

who have seen the movie Terminator II would recall how Skynet (the
organization controlled by robots) had removed human beings from strategic
decision making. This is what the army has done to Nawaz Sharif
government. Whether Nawaz approved it or not, army was all set to clobber
the Taliban in North Waziristan. (The writer is not suggesting though that the
army is run by robots).
3. The $ 1.2 billion dole out by Saudi Arabia: The money, it is said, was given
to Pakistan by Saudi Arabia on US insistence. As a quid pro quo, Pakistan
was to provide small arms(rocket launchers, anti-tank guided missiles along
with launchers, MGs, assault rifles, heavy mortars, etc) and soldiers of
fortune to engage in the proxy war Saudi Arabia was fighting with Iran in
Syria and Iraq. It was the army which put its foot down (why, we will
discuss subsequently). Resultantly, the deal was dead.
As the differences between the army and the civil regime were being gradually
sorted out, there appeared the latest crisis which , it seems, is all set to embroil
Pakistan into yet another lengthy conflict.
Gulf 1was fought between Iran and Iraq, Gulf 2 (A&B) between Iraq and US, and
Gulf 3 is gradually unfolding itself while the battle lines are still being drawn.
Some civilian power brokers in Pakistan are crying hoarse that the recent tiff has
no sectarian underpinnings. They conveniently ignore the fact that ,when it comes
to rivalry between Iran and the Arabs, every issue assumes a sectarian dimension.
Religion is but a faade for the chasm that has existed between these two very
proud people for the last thousand years.
Where lies the minefield ? US and her allies have found the real fissure in the
Muslim world and they are exploiting it. It is the Shia- Sunni divide. This explains
why US is sometimes on the side of the Shias and sometimes abets the Sunnis.
America stumbled on it during the Iran- Contra Affair. During the Gulf 1 US was
indirectly helping Saddam Hussain through the conservative Arab regimes . On the
other hand , it secretly facilitated the sale of arms to Iran, the subject of an arms
embargo. Some U.S. officials also hoped that the arms sales would secure the
release of several hostages and allow U.S. intelligence agencies to fund the
Nicaraguan Contras. It was planned that Israel would ship weapons to Iran, and

then the United States would resupply Israel. The Iranian recipients promised to do
everything in their power to achieve the release of the U.S. hostages.
The western world has only recently (15-20 years back)fully comprehended the
extent of Shia-Sunni divide. They are now exploiting it to the hilt. And they will
continue to make the Muslims stew in their own juices. It suits their interests by
keeping such a large area embroiled and in constant tumult. The writer
understands that in the future even India is going to exploit this chasm,
particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan. Iran is playing a fantastic role in controlling the
social and religious life of Shias living in Gilgit Baltistan region. For instance,
Shia lunar calendar for Gilgit- Baltistan is determined by the Imam of the Friday
mosque at Kargil. And the Imam of the Kargil mosque receives his instructions
from Iran. This is not something symbolic. It implies that the Shias living across
the line of control now have a single authority which regulates their secular as
well as religious life. This can have deep repercussions for Pakistan governments
authority in this region.
Whereas the forces inimical to the Muslims are expected to exploit the sectarian
divide, can we wash our hands off by heaping the entire blame on these hostile
forces? What is the big deal? Is the government inept to address the situation, as
being suggested by a portion of the media? What is the Pakistan armys role in this
imbroglio? Is the army again overstepping its domain, as propounded by some
others? These are the questions rankling the minds of the common people.
Pakistan Army trainers are in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates for the last
many decades . They have created and trained the armed forces of these countries
virtually from the scratch. Not only this, Pakistan has sold small arms, APCs,
armoured cars, and basic trainer aircraft worth millions of dollars to the Iraqs
predominantly Shia government. Iraq purchased 44 Talha tracked armored
personnel carriers and 60 Mohafiz internal security vehicles from Pakistan in 2006.
Analyst Usman Shabbir of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank reports 20
basic trainer aircraft, including training and spares, were purchased by Iraq for US
$94 million. The deal was signed sometime last year and can be verified on the
internet. Also, during the last five decades, Pakistan has had an active military
relationship with Iran (both under the Shah as well as the Ayatollahs), particularly
in training Iranian pilots and airmen . The level of military cooperation with Iran

keeps fluctuating , but the cooperation never ceases. So, if Pakistans military
cooperation with the Shia regimes in the region is pass , how does it become
taboo in case of Saudi Arabia?
For Pakistan army to involve itself in any sectarian fighting in the Gulf will be like
shooting itself in the foot. From 1982 till 1985 the writer had served in a Pakistani
armoured brigade stationed in Saudi Arabia. Saudis had asked for Sunni troops
only which GOP flatly refused. So the brigade consisted of both Shias and Sunnis.
And mind you at that time Zia was in power. He was a staunch Sunni . Zia refused
because to do so would have compromised the cohesiveness of the Army. And the
things have not changed. So much for the military cooperation.
It is easy to say that Pakistan should peacefully resolve its territorial differences
with India. It needs two to tango. One time or another one side refuses to dance.
May be in the 22nd Century there is peace between the two countries. Till then both
these countries , it is feared, will learn the things the hard way.
So, where does and how the army fit into this whole scenario. Contrary to the
general perspective prevailing in Pakistan, the armed forces are not so much
concerned about defending Pakistans ideological frontiers as its physical
boundaries. We are well aware about how serious both the civilians and the
military are about this ideology crap. The reasons are more mundane and down to
earth. Pakistan needs a military outfit to keep its neighborhood secure. And the
military has to keep its powder dry to ensure that India behaves. Those who talk of
downsizing the armed forces should understand that, to simply defend itself against
India, Pakistan needs an army one third the size of the Indian Army, plain and
simple.
What is the present state of affairs? It goes to the credit of Pakistans armed forces
that, whereas now the Indian military budget surpasses Pakistans entire budget,
the Pakistani military is keeping the Indian juggernaut at bay by making do with
mostly second hand equipment. Our air force needs F-16 Viper ( the latest version)
to counter Indias SU-30s and the projected induction of French Rafale. Due to
lack of funds it has resorted to buying second hand, old version F-16s from
Jordan. The air force also keeps re- building its around sixty years old Mirages to
keep them in flying condition. France has stopped producing these aircraft. Our

Army is buying second hand armoured personnel carriers from Italy. The navy,
except for its three Chinese origin frigates, is making do with Korean War vintage
hulks. It is also considering buying second hand submarines from Spain or France.
As for the nuclear deterrence, a nuclear bomb is a deterrent till it is not used. Once
used, it unleashes a mutual hara-kiri. So basically it is the conventional deterrence
reinforced (of course) by nuclear deterrence.
The economy of Pakistan, as it stands today, cannot support the armed forces to
even maintain a semblance of a viable defensive posture. And this when the army
and the air force are fighting the war on terror in FATA ,keeping more than an eye
on the eastern border , and embroiled in a foreign sponsored separatist war in
Balochistan. In such a situation, when our economy badly needs the life line of
fifteen billion dollars annual remittances from the Pakistanis living in Saudi Arabia
and the Gulf states, and when the armed forces need money for their sheer
survival, is it wise to annoy the Arabs.
By sending a brigade to Saudi Arabia, with the clear understanding that it would
not cross the Saudi border, heavens will not fall and Pakistan will not become more
unsafe than it is today. We should keep in mind the interest of 3-4 million
Pakistanis working in the Gulf region, and also how sending troops to Saudi Arabia
will indirectly benefit our defence budget. For the last 2-3 years, Pakistan is
trying to sell its indigenously built JF-17 fighter aircraft and Al-Khalid tanks to
Saudi Arabia, without success. If , as part of a military agreement, Saudi Arabia
buys this equipment from Pakistan, it will not only prompt the other countries in
the region to buy military hardware and software from us , but also make the
armed forces self-financing, decreasing the burden on the exchequer.
The ideological and sectarian dimensions of this conflict will have to be sorted
out by the political leadership. Presently this leadership is peeling off a huge onion
in the parliament, knowing full well that when they finish off peeling, nothing will
come out and some how the things will be sorted out for them by the army. They
think that they will , as usual, enjoy the best of both the worlds. Hence running
with the hare and hunting with the hounds. This will work no more. They will
have to deliver the goods. Our leaders should make it clear to Iran that it will have
to withdraw its support to the Houthis and stop its revanchist claims on a number
of Gulf emirates. On the other hand they should also convince the Saudis that

Pakistans support will be available to them only for defending the Saudi borders
against an external aggression. In the final analysis, more than anything else, the
Saudis are clamoring for Pakistan armys presence on the Saudi soil for
psychological reasons.