Professional Documents
Culture Documents
AUGUST 2003
29 August 2003
Final Report
Version v1.0
Project Team: John Ross and Peter Barnett
Document Status:
The preparation of this report has been facilitated by DTG Management
Services Ltd a wholly owned subsidiary company of the Digital TV Group.
HLJHIKJIL
The report has been compiled by acknowledged industry experts with the
aim of providing answers to specific questions posed by the UK
Department of Trade and Industry. While every effort has been made to
ensure accuracy and to provide a consensus view when required, it should
not be assumed that all member organisations of the Digital TV Group
support all aspects of the report. The views expressed in the report are
those of the authors and not the collective views of DTG Council.
Prepared for:
Ian Dixon
Department of Trade & Industry
Facilitated by:
DTG Management Services Ltd
7 Old Lodge Place
Twickenham
TW1 1RQ
Tel: +44 20 8891 1830
Fax: +44 20 8891 1999
CONTENTS
1.
2.
SCOPE............................................................................................................ 5
3.
INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 6
4.
4.1.
4.2.
4.3.
4.4.
4.5.
4.6.
5.
6.
TRAINING ..................................................................................................... 14
6.1.
Existing Skills and Experience .................................................................. 14
6.2.
Existing training courses ........................................................................... 14
6.3.
Estimating the requirement for training courses ........................................ 15
7.
CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................ 16
8.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................. 17
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The nations stock of UHF TV aerial systems, either for individual homes or for
communal reception systems, is not ideally suited to reception of Digital Terrestrial
Television (DTT). The shortcomings have been discussed at some length
elsewhere1, but it is clear that before switchover can be undertaken, a considerable
number of aerial systems will have to be upgraded.
This report estimates the number of aerials and systems that will need attention, and
calculates the number of installation staff that will be required to achieve this.
Existing training courses are briefly reviewed, and the requirement for training is
examined, on the basis that only suitably qualified installers carry out aerial and
system installations.
In summary:
Action Plan Task 5.14: Improving UK Aerial Installations, Review of Technical Performance
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2. SCOPE
The following scope for this report has been agreed between the DTG and the DTI:
1.
2.
3.
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3. INTRODUCTION
Aerial installations in the UK can broadly be split into two categories: individual
installations for individual households, and shared or communal aerial systems for
multiple dwelling units (MDUs). The distinction between the two categories is not
always this clear; for example, in some housing estates detached houses are fed
from communal aerial systems. However, these categories are useful because they
represent roughly 80% and 20% respectively of all households, and have some
significant differences in the skills requirements of installers.
The objective of an aerial system is to deliver signals of adequate quality to outlets
close to the location of the receiving equipment. Therefore, in this document, the
term aerial system is taken to cover all equipment from the aerial itself to all of the
outlets that are fed by that aerial.
In both individual and shared aerial systems, complexity varies greatly. In individual
systems, the simplest installation would consist of a loft or roof mounted aerial, with a
downlead running to a single outlet. With a current average of over 2.2 televisions
and 1.8 VCRs per household, it is clear that a substantial number of households
would find a single outlet insufficient. In fact, internal distribution systems in
individual households currently represent about 60% of the average installers work
load.
Shared aerial systems can be subdivided into two categories: MATV (Master
Antenna TV) and IRS (Integrated Reception Systems). MATV systems have been in
use for many years, and are intended principally to deliver UHF TV services, but
sometimes also carry VHF radio services. IRS installations are a more recent idea,
and are commonly described as delivering everything to everyone. As well as UHF
TV, they carry satellite services, FM radio and even DAB. More detailed descriptions
of IRS and MATV systems are given in the Annexes to this report.
Little definitive data is available to support assumptions made throughout this report,
except where identified within the report, but each assumption is a judgement made
following input from various sources active within the trade.
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AUGUST 2003
6.4m
0.7m
2.1m
1.6m
10.8m
These three constituencies, satellite, cable and terrestrial, may be added together to
obtain the total number of households with digital services, assuming that the number
of households having more than one type of digital service available is insignificant.
We have not found figures to support this3, but believe it to be a reasonable
assumption at this stage.
4.3. Estimating the number of aerials requiring conversion
There are a number of approaches to identifying the number of households that may
use DTT. The one we use here is to attempt to identify the number that will not use
DTT, and subtract that from the total number of households.
2
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Sky has recently published a target of 7m subscribers by the end of 2003, and 8m by
2005. Assuming that this rate of increase is maintained (a view considered optimistic
by some), by switchover the total would be around 10m subscribers. On the same
basis, FTA satellite viewing might be in the region of 2m households, and digital
cable might be 4m. This is a total of 16m households.
Although very much open to conjecture and individual interpretation, if we assume
that half of these will take DTT, perhaps to feed second and subsequent TVs
inexpensively via a converter, then 8m households will not take DTT. This leaves us
with about 16.5m households. Deducting the 1.6m current DTT households leaves a
future potential market of about 15m households. Assuming that in this group the
same proportions apply as for the entire nation, 21% (3m) will be on shared systems,
and 79% (12m) will be individual houses.
Not all individual households will require aerial replacement. ITV Digital found that
on average about 40% actually required an upgrade. This was however shown to be
very sensitive to cost: when initially onDIGITAL offered a free upgrade, the
percentage taking up the offer was in excess of 80%, but reduced sharply to an
average of 40% when a fee of 40, well below cost, was introduced. Consistent with
this, a major retailer has recently confirmed that they find about 30% of DTT
installations require a new aerial.
If therefore say 35% of individual households buy an aerial upgrade, then this
represents up to about 4.2m aerials.
It should be noted that the number of aerial installations has not kept pace with the
recent growth of set top box sales since the launch of Freeview. A typical aerial
installation costs 100-150, although in some regions of the country it can be
considerably less. If anything, the price of aerial installations will rise with the
introduction of benchmarked aerials and cables. (A benchmarked 18-element aerial
is expected to cost about 10 to the trade, whereas a non-benchmarked equivalent
costs about 5. The cost of benchmarked aerials is expected to fall somewhat with
time.) In contrast, set top boxes now cost as little as 80, and the price can be
expected to fall further.
The lack of growth of aerial installations indicates a strong unwillingness of the public
to pay a substantial extra sum of money for an aerial installation after having bought
a box, and may account for many of the returns reported by retailers. If the existing
aerial is deficient, then an 80 purchase could become as much as a 230 purchase,
which for many people will be seen as a high barrier.
An alternative to replacement of the aerial may be to accept more instances of
interference, or to receive a reduced set of multiplexes, and there is some evidence
that this is happening. In some cases however, it may not be possible to receive any
DTT services without replacement of the aerial.
Although estimates vary throughout the industry, a conservative approach indicates
that outdoor aerials will on average require replacement about every 10 years. Whilst
the more substantial aerials of previous years could last up to 20 years, the currently
predominant reduced cost contract type aerials are likely to survive considerably less
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AUGUST 2003
time. The resulting rate of aerial replacements carried out by the installation industry
has been estimated to be running for some years at typically around 1.7m per
annum4. (Some claim as many as 2.2m aerials per year, but this figure is believed to
be somewhat inflated for commercial reasons.) Such is the uncertainty surrounding
the commercially sensitive replacement aerials number, the 1.7m is a best judgement
based on multiple inputs but should have a tolerance of +/- 20% applied, and that this
number includes the DIY market. Assuming these are distributed randomly
throughout the population of 20.28m individual households, of the 4.2m buying an
upgrade, about 350,000 a year will be covered by this background replacement rate.
In the five years between now and the start of switchover, about 1.7m of the 4.2m will
have been replaced, so the increase in activity that the industry must cover is about
2.5m aerial installations in individual households. Note that this assumes that when
an aerial is replaced, even at an early stage in this period, the replacement is suitable
for DTT. This is not always the case at present.
Another important factor is the switchover plan. The ITC has reported on the
development of plans to use the current analogue channels for digital transmissions
after switchover. Combined with an increase in the number of transmitter sites to
120, coverage of the three public service multiplexes should exceed 96% of
households, but it must be stressed that no decisions have yet been taken regarding
transmitter sites carrying either the three public service multiplexes or the additional
commercial multiplexes. Generally, re-use of the former analogue channels will keep
the new digital channels within group, so that existing grouped aerials will not have to
be changed for wideband. However, this is not possible in some locations, and the
ITC has indicated that between zero and 2m households may be affected, requiring
new aerials. If it turns out in reality to be at the high end of this range, then this
represents a major increase in the workload, compounded by being only in certain
specific regions of the country. Ideally this work should be carried out ahead of
switchover, to minimise the impact on viewers. The switchover plan is expected to
be published by October 2003, at which point it should be possible to make a better
assessment of the impact. In the meantime, this factor has been excluded from
calculations in this report.
It is also important to account for work arising from second and subsequent TV sets
in the home. Currently these analogue TVs are frequently fed using set top aerials,
taking advantage of the relatively forgiving nature of the response to poor analogue
signals. In many cases this will prove unsatisfactory for digital signals, except in
areas of particularly high signal strength, due to the digital threshold effect, and to the
increased level of impulsive interference picked up by set top aerials. As people
recognise that their analogue TVs will not work after switchover, many will choose to
have digital signals provided by an internal distribution system, and use inexpensive
converters to extend the useful life of their equipment. In most cases, the distribution
system will be supplied and fitted by aerial installers.
With a population of 20.28m individual homes and average aerial lifetime of 10 years, it
might be expected that the rate of replacement would be higher. We believe the difference is
accounted for mainly by the DIY market, but note that the calculations are fairly sensitive to
the average aerial lifetime, the figure for which is based only on judgements of members of
the installation trade.
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AUGUST 2003
Currently installers are spending about 60% of their time on fitting additional outlets,
rather than installing aerials. It seems likely that this sort of figure will be maintained
up to switchover, having a significant impact on the manpower available for aerial
installations.
4.4. Rate of installations for individual households
At the Action Plans Aerial Installation Strategy Seminar on 14th May, 2003, figures
were presented by others for projected installation rates between 2003 and 2011,
based on their view that there will be a total of 5m aerials replaced. Our calculations
(a total of 4.2m aerials) do not differ greatly from their figure. We need to estimate the
maximum rate of installations above the existing background installation rate, in order
to arrive at the number of additional staff that will be required. The background
installation rate has previously been identified as 1.7m resulting in a total requirement
of 2.5m additional aerials to be replaced. Their data have therefore been scaled to
give a total of 2.5m aerials, the number above the current background installation
rate, and are shown in the chart below.
Aerials, 000s
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
This clearly shows that activity will peak as switchover approaches. The shape of
this distribution may be affected to some extent by publicity given to the process well
before switchover starts, but this is unlikely to have much impact on the peak value of
about 415,000 aerials per year (note that this is in addition to the background 1.7m
per year).
4.5. Estimating the number of shared aerial systems requiring conversion
An estimate has been made in Section 4.1 that there will be 5.6m flats, etc. by 2009.
In the absence of definitive data estimates vary but with shared aerial systems
currently believed to be averaging 32 households per system, about 170,000
systems would be required to address this population.
About 900,000 outlets have been converted so far. About 100,000 are MATV
upgrades, and the remainder are IRS. Due to the increasing trend for more than one
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AUGUST 2003
outlet per household, we estimate that this represents about 750,000 households,
leaving another 4.85m shared aerial households to be converted by switchover.
It is usual practice for all outlets in a block to be converted, irrespective of whether
the services are actually used in every dwelling. MATV conversions cost typically
about 30 per outlet, while conversion to IRS generally costs about 150 per outlet,
although local requirements can raise these costs significantly.
MATV upgrades generally utilise the existing coaxial cable distribution network but
require the replacement of aerials and fittings and amplifiers with suitable DTT
compatible types enabling analogue and DTT signals to be received in each dwelling.
Many consider this to be a cost effective route to the provision of digital services to
householders even possibly a short term solution, and a stepping stone, towards full
IRS installation.
IRS installation requires the installation of a completely new suite of distribution
equipment including coaxial cables and TV face plates per dwelling but potentially
enables householders to enjoy terrestrial signals, both digital and analogue, including
FM and DAB where available as well as digital satellite programming.
4.6. Rate of installations for MATV and IRS
The rates of installations over the years leading up to switchover are likely to be
demand driven in a manner similar to that used above for individual households. On
this assumption, scaling the graph gives a maximum rate of 800,000 per year. The
current rate of conversions is 300,000 per year. This rate is low because many
landlords are delaying taking action due to cost, until demand increases significantly.
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Number of
employees
Number of
companies
1 to 5
6 to 29
30 plus
442
162
46
Approximate
average
% of
number of
membership
installers
per
company
68
2
25
11
7
33
TOTAL:
Total
number of
installers
886
1782
1518
4186
The number of companies which are not currently members of the CAI is more
difficult to determine as they are not part of any single association. Opinions in the
trade estimate between 2000 and 3000, the great majority of which are very small or
one man companies, giving a total of all installers of 8,000. In the region of 2000 of
these work part time as installers, so for the purposes of calculating manpower, we
have assumed there to be the equivalent of about 7,000 full time installers.
System conversions are currently running at a rate of about 300,000 outlets per year.
An industry rule of thumb assumes 2 man-hours per outlet, so we could calculate that
approaching 400 installers would be required to achieve this, if working full time.
However, it is known that installers do not devote their full working time to TV
installations; they undertake other similar tasks such as fitting door entry systems.
Although there will be variations, across the trade the best estimate is 70% of their
time on TV systems at most. This implies that the number of staff required is around
600, leaving the equivalent of 6,400 installers for individual installations.
Moving back to individual houses, currently there are about 1.7m aerial installations
per year, and we know that on average about 60% of the time of installers is taken up
with internal distribution systems. Using these figures we can calculate that for
aerials alone, installers are working at a rate of close to 3 aerials per day. Compared
with the historical benchmark of 4 aerials per day, this indicates that the industry is
running at about 75% capacity.
We have shown in Section 4.4 that the peak installation rate is expected to be an
additional 415,000 aerials per year. If the industry is running at 75% capacity, and is
managing 1.7m installations per year, then at full capacity it could handle 550,000
more aerials per year. This implies that no extra installers would be needed to cope
with the peak installation rate for individual households.
For MATV and IRS, the story is somewhat different. We have shown above that the
current rate of conversions is 300,000 per year, and that this is being achieved by
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AUGUST 2003
about 600 people. By simple scaling, we might assume that an additional 1000
installers would be required to achieve the peak rate of 800,000 per year. However,
two factors will reduce this number:
newly trained installers could be expected to spend virtually all their time on
the business they have just been trained for: TV systems;
cabling can be installed by other trades such as electricians.
We therefore estimate that the number of additional installers required to cover the
peak rate of installation of shared aerial systems is about 500.
It is believed that one system designer can design for and supervise up to 5
installation crews (i.e. 10 installers). There are 120 people qualified by the CAI
SMATV course to undertake this work, although many of these were qualified before
DTT started. In theory it would appear that these qualified people could manage the
expanded number of installers, but with little capacity for error, let alone sickness,
holidays, etc. It is likely that these numbers will have to grow to in the region of 200.
There is another important factor that will have some degree of influence on the
numbers of installers and designers of shared aerial systems. MDUs are not the only
places where such systems are needed. Hospitals, universities and certain
businesses are examples of other users of shared aerial systems that will require
installation work from the same group of installers. However, estimating their
numbers has been beyond the scope of this exercise.
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6. TRAINING
6.1. Existing Skills and Experience
With DTT in use in less than 10% of homes, a high percentage of aerial installers
have had limited experience of DTT installations, and most have had no formal DTT
training.
The exceptions to this are those installers who were employed by DTS during the
days of onDIGITAL/ITV Digital. They received basic training and had experience of
1.2m installations. At the peak of this activity some 780 companies (many of which
were one man businesses) had some DTT installation involvement through DTS
(Digital Television Services) with up to 1200 installers actually employed in the work.
Since the demise of ITV Digital a number of companies have dramatically reduced
workforces or have gone out of the business. Probably less than 500 installers
working today have had both training and experience of DTT installations. Even
these installers would benefit from further training focusing on the latest knowledge
available.
For shared aerial systems it is important to recognise that the design process
requires considerably greater skills and qualifications than is needed for installation.
At present, only 107 CAI member companies have between them 120 staff qualified
to this level, and many of these have not received formal training since DTT came
into operation. From these numbers it is clear that most companies have only a
single member of staff with the necessary qualifications to undertake all aspects of
system work, from system design to commissioning.
6.2. Existing training courses
A new one day DTT course has been developed by the CAI, which is City & Guilds
approved. However, the first run of this course, recently completed, had only 5
students. It can be argued that the marketing of the course was inadequate (this is
being addressed by the CAI), but it can also be taken to indicated that the demand is
not strong.
This DTT course requires that students have undertaken the basic Radio & TV
course so that some underpinning skills are in place. The course costs each student
125 if a CAI member and 180 if not. Due to the need to oversee practical aspects
of this training course by the single trainer, the numbers attending are currently
limited to between 10 and 12.
The CAI operates a distance learning course intended to provide the skills that are
required for the design of MATV and IRS systems, and supervision of their
installation. This is a 6 month course during which modules are self tested and
verified using tutor marked assignments. There is a three day attendance at a study
centre with practical assessments, followed by a day of examinations.
We have not been able to find any other DTT courses aimed specifically at the aerial
installation trade.
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Page 15 of 19
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7. CONCLUSIONS
In this document we have estimated the number of individual and multi-dwelling
aerial systems that will need to be upgraded for DTT. We have looked at the
numbers of installers that will be required, and at the training they will require in order
to meet the goal of only suitably qualified installers carrying out the work.
The results can be summarised as follows:
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8. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance and support given by the
following people and companies:
Tim Jenks, John Summerfield
Kieth White
Andy Wade
Adrian White
Martin Bell
Alan Gentle, Steve Mann
George Wojtowicz
Matt Seaman
Colin Ferrier
William Vickers
Martin Turner, Simon Turner
Andy Demetriou
Nick Gregory
Arthur Rowe
Vince Loxton
Peter Poulson, Dave Tomlins
CAI
Maxview
Labgear
Dixons
DTG
DTS
Fracarro/Philips
Freeview
Independent
J Noble
Martin Turner Direct
SCC International
Sky
Teldis
Televes
Triax
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Equaliser filter
Launch Amplifier
Page 18 of 19
Taps to feed
households
AUGUST 2003
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