Defining terrorims and the Terrorist Threat

Why is terrorismo so hard to define?

Political Reasons
Inconvenient for government to label a terrorist group.
Many nations gain Independence through the use of terrorism.
Sometimes overcome tyranny or oust invading army.

For many, this is seen as freedom fighting.

- Governments may come into power after violence.
- Governments may find it useful to assist insurgents or rebels.

Terrorist organizations used as deterrence.

Empathy for the cause
- Politician doesnt want to alienate constituency.
- Constituency has empathy for the terrorists goals.

Bureaucratic reasons
- Agencies use different vocabulary in describing terrorism.
- Definitions seen as tied to legitimacy and Budget.

Arbitrariness
- Terrorism is a tactic - can be used by various organizations &
entities.
- Terrorism must be defined for discussion & clarity

Non-state Actors

We will focus on non-state actors.

State violence is not somehow better or less evil, bad or wrong.
But must have definition we can all agree on for purposes of discussion.

Global terrorism Database

Definition: Acts by non-state actors involving the threatened or actual use of
ilegal forc or violence to obtain a political, economic, religious or social goal
throug fear, coercin or intimidation.
Inclusion Criteria
Mandatory Criteria
1 Violence is intentional: volition.
2. Use of violence or threat of violence.
3. Actor is a non-nation state. (Does include state-sponsored terrorism, does
not include sirian regimes use of chemical weapons on rebels).

Reseachers trying to answer specific set of questions.

Definition of terrorism can be different for different research projects.
Must be transparent.
Key concepts

Terrorism is a tactic. Used in concert with other tactics as part of differing

strategies.

Geographic Trends in the Global

Terrorism Database Part 1
Part 1: Worldwide and regional patterns.
Part 2: Country and city level patterns.
Geographic Trends

Terrorist attacks are highly concentrated in very specific locations.

Major regions of the world differ enormously in how common terrorism
has been.
The regional distribution of terrorism has changed over time.
Geographical distribution displays important differences in regions
across the world.

Start broad
-Split the world into 13 different regions.
Concentrated in three regions: Middle East, North Africa and South Asia and
South America.
Findings
-

Spatial patterns:
More fatalities than attacks.
More attacks than fatalities.
Overall:
1970: Western Europe = 47%
1980: Latin America =55%
1990: South America, South Asia, Western Europa = 50%
2000: MENA, South Asia= 66%

Western European groups: IRA, ETA and Red Brigades in Italy.

South American groups: Shining Path in Peru, Movement of the
Revolutionary Left in Chile.

Central America groups: Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front,

Nicaraguan Democratic Force.
Changes in regional patterns
MENA groups:
-Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey.
- Al-Gamaa al Islamiayya (IG) in Egypt.
-Salafist Group for Preaching and Fighting in Algeria.
- Al-Qaida (various countries)
-HAMAS in Israel and Palestinian territory.
South Asian groups:
-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka
-Muttahida Quami Movement in Pakistan
-Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
-Communist Party in India.

Country and city level patterns.

72% of terrorism attacks occur in less than 10% of all countries in the
world.
Nearly 27% of attacks took place in just 4 countries:
-Colombia
-Iraq
-India
-Peru
10 countries account for almost half of the worlds terrorist attacks.

Conclusion
Terrorist attacks are highly concentrated in specific countries.

Findings

Since 1970, almost of all terrorist attacks have occurred in just 20

countries.
Fatalities are even more concentrated than attacks. 80% took place in
only 20 countries.

Conclusion

Communication and media can skew our perception of terrorism.

Analysis has shown concentration of terrorism by:
-Region
- Country
- City
Geographic concentration varies over time.

Module 2: Individual Radicalization

We will consider individual radicalization as a function of four interrelated

ingredients: grievance, cognitive opening, ideology and mobilization.
Introduction to individual radicalization
Introduction
Every terrorist group has had to convince recruits of the necessity of violence.
Talking about radicalization and recruitment: production of propaganda in order
to inspire a radicalized response.
Must continue to focus on the organization, not just receiver of information.
Acceptance of an extreme belief or radicalism not equal to acceptance of
violence as necessary to advance belief.
Things to Consider.
Extreme belief not held by majority of society.
Violence as necessary to advance belief.
But, terrorist can use violence to advance beliefs held by majority of
mainstream society.
Should not conflate radical beliefs and violence to advance radical beliefs.
Radical beliefs are not criminal, but engaging in material support for groups is a
crime.
Radicalization = acceptance of violence as necessary to advance an ideological
goal.
Still must consider authors point of view.
Four basic components of radicalization

1.
2.
3.

4.

Peter Neumann: Grievance, Ideology, mobilization and Cognitive

opening.
Grievance: idea that something is wrong with the world: inequality,
wrong to be righted, issue to be addressed.
Cognitive opening: an individual is able to be influenced by an outside
force: compelling idea, charismatic individual.
Ideology: set of beliefs that describes the world: describes both what is
wrong with the world and what the world should be. Provides a blueprint
for action (moving towards a real world outcome)
Mobilization: takin action in the real world by taking resources, money,
etc. and using them towards a real world outcome.

Common Wisdom: radicalization starts with grievance (personally and

community), creates cognitive opening looking for answers.
Militant ideology provides these answers.

-Why persected
-Whos responsible
-What to do to address persecution.
Socializes ideas with others
-

Online
In-person

Mobilize towards violence.

Real world case study Boston Marathon bombing 2013- Slightly different
chain of events.
Different Focuses
Political scientists/socioloists =grievance and ideology. Using
social movement theory to understand mobilization.
Psychologists = cognitive opening.
All 4 initiatives must be taken in parallel because an individual may not hit 4
steps. Again, radicalization is not linear and not all 4 elements are necessary.
This creates an opportunity to stem radicalization at a broader, societal level.
Others terms in the context of radicalization
Deradicalization: convincing someone to abandon militant beliefs Changing
their mind.
Counter- radicalization: similar to what weve discussed. Idea of preventing the
radicalization process from occurring in the first place. Countering ideologies.
Addressing grievances.
Disengagement: Disengage from violent behavior, even without giving up
radical beliefs. Many people never fully abandon beliefs but decide to not
engage in violent action.
Wrap Up
Ingredients of radicalization. Four key ingredients suggest counter-strategy.
Explore there topics in depth in the readings.
IDEOLOGY
Ideology is one of the four characteristics weve already mentioned in the
previous lecture on radicalization.
-

Are specific belief systems.

Interpreted grievances
Assign blame for things that are wrong in the world.

Provide a vision for how that world should be, and tell an
individual what they can/need to do in order to take the world
from the way it currently is to the way it should be.

Characteristics of Extremist Ideologies

Black and white simplifications of a very complex world.

Sense of timeliness or urgency.
Desire for change or to resist change
Provide exclusive knowledge.

Ideology and fact?

For an ideology, persuasion is more important than factual accuracies.
Then how do we counter an ideology? Presenting facts likely wont be
persuasive.
Examples of Extremist Ideologies
- Separatist: group of people want autonomy and to separate from
the powers that be.
- Ethno-nationalist: idea of creating a nation state based on an
ethno-naitonal or linguistic identity.
- Racist. Claim that members of one race are superior, or shouldnt
integrate between races.
Why are ideologies important?
-Help to polarize society create an US V. THEM
-The polarization helps to radicalize, recruit, and mobilize individuals towards
violence.
- Ideolgy can define the parameters of violence a group may use.
- Helps to shape propaganda.
How are ideologies spread?
-Propaganda
- Indoctrinated veterans of the movement.
In summary
- Ideologies are roadmaps to action.
- Not just beliefs, but beliefs that shape behaviors.
- Not just a one way system ideology impacts the carriers, and
allows them to carry this ideology to new areas and bring with
them resources and targeting/tactical preferences.
Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS)
Different because focuses on individuals rather than events/groups.
Need for Research: 1. Few large scale quantitative studies.
2. Few theoretically informed etiological studies.
3. Few comparisons of radicalization across ideologies.

4. Few studies that include both quantitative and qualitative

approaches.
Key Questions
1. Differences in violent vs. nonviolent?
2. Relationship between beliefs and behaviors?
3. Differences across ideologies?
4. Which theories are most promising?