EMERGENCY SIMULATION: STATE OF THE ART AND FUTURE

RESEARCH GUIDELINES
Francesco Longo
Modeling and Simulation Center Laboratory of Enterprise Solutions (MSC-LES)
M&SNet Center at Mechanical Department, University of Calabria,
87036 Rende (CS) Italy
f.longo@unical.it

Abstract
Emergency simulation has received increasing
attention in recent years (above all after 9/11)
and several research works (including
quantitative models, advanced methodologies
and tools) have been developed and proposed.
Since 2006, Emergency Simulation has
become one of the most important
tracks/workshop of the Summer Computer
Simulation Conference, SCSC, part of the
International Simulation Multiconference,
ISMC. Prior to 2006, specific tracks on
homeland security were often included in the
SCSC. The time seems right for presenting a
review of the articles (mostly submitted to the
Emergency Track at SCSC but also including
additional relevant articles) that address the
use of simulation for emergency situations,
including, among others, disaster management
and evacuation problems (both on large and
small scales). To this end, we provide a
comprehensive overview of the main scientific
approaches proposed (in the two areas
indicated above) by researchers and
simulation experts. The overview in each area
is presented through a detailed description of
the research work on which it is based.
Introduction
The complexity of most of real-world systems
is very much related to their stochastic nature
as well as to the interactions (at different
levels) among their main factors and variables.
Although traditional methodologies (i.e.
analytical approaches and models) contribute
confidence and knowledge about a real-world
system they provide theoretical solutions
whose validity is very much dependent on
initial (and usually restrictive) assumptions.

SCS M&S Magazine 2010 / n2 (April)

Historically the most suitable way to come up

with solutions to solve problems in real-world
complex systems is a modeling & simulation
(M&S) based approach. Indications of
simulation in terms of imitation of reality can
be found throughout our history (from the
very ancient Egypt culture to the Roman
Empire with the imitation of epic battles),
only during the last century and thanks to the
unstoppable growth of digital computers, has
simulation become a critical enabling
technology for many scientific disciplines and
social sciences. We note that the USA has
recently recognized Modeling & Simulation as
a National Critical Technology for the security
and prosperity of the United States (the House
Resolution 487).
In Banks (1998), simulation is defined as the
imitation of the operations of a real-world
system over the time that involves the creation
of an artificial history of the real-system.
According to Oren and Longo (2008)
simulation is used for two different but
equally important categories of usages: (i)
training and (ii) performing experiments.
When the artificial history of the system is
used with the aim of improving the
competence on the operations of the realworld system (and gaining knowledge about
it), then simulation is used for training
purposes. To this end, training of personnel
for operations can be achieved by using virtual
simulation, constructive simulation and live
simulation (Kelly and Phillips). When the
artificial history of the real world system is
used with the aim of performing experiments
than simulation is a powerful problem solving
methodology and decision support tool for
carrying out what-if analysis, evaluating
different alternatives, designing and managing
complex systems.

Longo Page 1 of 8

In recent years, M&S has been extensively

used for supporting both training and
experimental analysis in emergency scenarios.
Topics of interest include, among others,
disasters management and evacuation
problems both on large and small scale. Since
2006
an
Emergency
Simulation
track/workshop has been part of the SCS
Summer Computer Simulation Conference
(SCSC), contributing interesting papers and
providing an ideal framework for researchers
and simulationists from all over the world
working in this specific sector.
Therefore the aim of this article is to provide
the reader with a synthetic but useful literature
review in the Emergency Simulation area
based on both the best papers submitted to the
Emergency Simulation track/workshop of the
SCSC and other relevant research works.
In the sequel a brief overview of the article is
reported. Section 2 reports on the international
state of the art on the use of Emergency
Simulation for disaster management; the first
part of section 3 provides a literature review
on large scale evacuation simulation models;
the second part presents an analogous
literature review on small scale evacuation
simulation models. Finally last section gives
conclusions and future research guidelines.
Emergency Simulation for disasters
management
According to the American Heritage
dictionary, a disaster is an event occurring
suddenly and causing great loss of life,
damage or hardship. Similarly the MerriamWebster defines the disaster as a sudden
calamitous event bringing great damage, loss,
or destruction. As matter of fact, disasters are
unexpected events (i.e. terrorist attacks,
hurricanes, fires, accidents, etc.) that bring, as
consequence, unknown situations. During the
last decades severe disasters have struck
violently different countries. Hurricanes like
Katrina, the 9/11 terrorist attacks (as well as
London and Madrid bombs) are some of the
most significant disasters that have caused
huge damages in terms of both lives of people
and infrastructures and systems (i.e.
transportations, telecommunications, etc.).
Reduction of human life loses and economic
and financial damages are the major drivers
for developing tools able to model correctly a
disaster scenario (considering all the involved

SCS M&S Magazine 2010 / n2 (April)

actors and information flows) and optimize

the coordination of the major emergency
services. These tools are mainly based on
Modeling & Simulation and are used (at
different levels and with different modalities)
both for supporting operators and personnel
training and for the estimation of the impact of
the disaster.
Ontology is a suitable way for a formal
representation of a disaster. An example of
ontology for representing disasters and their
effects and for improving simulations ability
to come up with more accurate plans for
emergency situations (disasters mitigation) is
proposed by Joshi et al. (2007). The approach
proposed by authors to model disasters
domains is based on a Web Ontology
Language (OWL).
Formal representations of disasters are the
first steps toward the development of decision
support tools to be used for estimating the
impact of different types of disasters and
mitigating their effects both in terms of human
life loses and damages to various
infrastructures. However, as pointed out by
Dudenhoeffer et al (2007), an additional
aspect to be necessarily considered for
disasters management and effects mitigation is
the
correct
understanding
of
the
interdependency and vulnerabilities to the
critical portions of critical infrastructures or
operations (the authors clearly show the need
of understanding the interdependency among
critical infrastructures by used an architecture,
called CIMS, Critical Infrastructure Modeling
System, developed at Idaho National
Laboratory).
Interdependency
and
vulnerability of critical infrastructures (in
particular supply chains) in terms resilience
(capability to quickly react to unforeseen and
catastrophic events) is also presented in Longo
and Oren (2008).
The correct description of disasters domain in
terms of concepts and object and their
properties and relations, the interdependency
among critical infrastructures involved in a
disaster, have to be regarded as basis for M&S
support and planning tools for both training
and experimental analysis in emergency
scenarios. In the sequel, some relevant articles
that propose the use of simulation for both
personnel training and disaster scenario
analysis are described.

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Kanala et al. (2008) presents a prototype of

web-based tool based on M&S to be used by
responders for scenario analysis and
emergency services planning. Guimarans et al.
(2006) focus their attention on the
coordination and planning of the three major
emergency services (Police service, Medical
service and Fire service) in road accidents.
They propose a software architecture (based
on simulation and combined with optimization
algorithms) for the design of real-time
decision support tools to be used for the
coordination of the emergency services. In
addition
to
optimization
algorithms,
Simulation is often used in combination with
gaming technology; the integration of
simulation and gaming can effectively support
disasters management. As stated by Jain et al.
(2007), one of the major challenging problems
in the case of integration of simulation and
gaming is the effort required for building a
standard; to this end the authors present a very
interesting architecture (to define the scope of
simulation and gaming modules) and a
conceptual model (for organizing data
required for simulation).
When simulation is combined with gaming
technologies and 3D virtual environments,
then, in most of the cases tools developed are
used for personnel training in case of
emergency. Didderen et al. (2009) present a
TM

training system (NIFV-ADMS ) for training

of team in case of emergency. The training
system, based on virtual simulation, has been
jointly developed by the Netherlands Institute
for Safety (NIFV) and ETC Simulation, USA.
NIFV-ADMSTM is able to reproduce (in a
virtual environment) different types of
incidents/disasters (i.e. hazardous materials
incidents, cars incidents, fires in both
domestic and industrial locations, etc.). A
scenarios generator provides trainees with a
number of different unexpected and unknown
situations; different emergency responses are
available (fire brigade, polices, EMR, etc.). A
specific example of first responders training
(related to a well define type of disaster) by
using M&S combined with 3D video game
engine is briefly presented by Sanders and
Rhodes (2007). The authors consider as
disaster a radiological emergency and use a
validated engineering model, developed at the
Oako Ridge National Laboratory, that

SCS M&S Magazine 2010 / n2 (April)

realistically simulates the radiological

environment.
Others research work directly considers the
impact of disasters on specific infrastructures
or systems. Bruzzone et al. (2006)
demonstrate the potentials of M&S as a
support tool for evaluating the impact of huge
disasters (e.g., a Katrina style hurricane) or on
transportation systems in a large region (e.g., a
state). The authors conduct some preliminary
analysis to correlate the alert level to the time
requested by refugees to reach their
destination (defined as readiness). Arslan
(2009) describes the application of a Tactic
Nuclear
Biological
Chemical
Attack
Simulation (TNBCAS) software devoted to
simulate nuclear, biological and chemical
(NBC) contamination and propagation within
a typical NBC attack scenario with respect to
the atmospheric conditions and geographical
characteristics. The author provides a brief
description of the simulation software
potentials (including contamination and
diffusion models, damage assessment and
software graphic user interface).
Finally we note the critical role played by
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in
developing tools for disaster management.
They are currently used as support tools, for
many purposes (i.e. logistics planning,
resources mapping and distribution, various
information sources, etc.) and in different
types of disasters. To cite just few works as
application examples, Al-Hanbali et al. (2006)
and Chang and Hsueh (2007) use GIS system
for two different purposes. Al-Hanbali et al.
(2006) develop a GIS combined with a
Hospital Mapping Software both to provide
users for the most common functionalities of
GIS databases and to analyse the actual
hospital distribution in Amman city (in order
to improve service coverage). Chang and
Hsueh (2007) develop a GIS able to estimate
rescue demand in case of flood emergency and
provide the user with the information about
rescue supply (initial data are obtained from
aby GIS-based disaster prediction subsystem
and rescue resource subsystem).
Large Scale and Small Scale Evacuation
Simulation Models
The need for large scale evacuation is mostly
due to emergencies that involves civilians in
case of announced or happened disasters. A

Longo Page 3 of 8

review of methodologies used in existing

large-scale simulation evacuation models and
decision support systems is given by Pham et
al. (2008). The authors review 11 models
according to their first publication date.
Further details of model reviewed in Pham et
al. (2008) are reported in Table 1. In addition
to the evacuation models proposed in Table 1,
a number of research works have been
proposed; most of them propose a M&S based
approach and deal with scheduling problems,
evaluation of evacuation time and evacuation
control and management.
Dixit and Radwan (2008) deal with the
optimal scheduling problems for evacuation
orders.
Model Name
NETVAC1

Year
1982

CLEAR

1983

NESSY-IV

1983

I-DYNEV

1980

MASSVAC

1985

TEVACS

1990

REMS

1991

TEDSS

1994

OREMS

1994

CEMPS

1996

D4S2

2007

proved to be a useful tool to improve

evacuation operation efficiency. Russo and
Vitetta (2008) aim at constructing a prototype
laboratory system of models for public
administration where evacuation models and
procedures can be implemented. Such a
prototype will provide public administration
with guidelines for planning and managing
evacuation in an urban system under
emergency conditions. Oleson and Kaup
(2006) discuss a general procedure for
implementing a crowd based social potential
model. The procedure is based on the
accomplishment of the following six phases:

Usage
Network Emergency Evacuation model based on a
simulator capable of estimating traffic patterns and
evacuation time on road network surrounding nuclear
power plants
Calculates Logical Evacuation and Response model is
based on a microscopic simulator for evaluating
network evacuation time during a nuclear emergency
Net Structure Analyzing System IV model based on a
macroscopic simulator is suitable for small area and
works properly for earthquake emergencies
Interactive Dynamic Network Evacuation model is
used for emergency planning and evacuation in case
of nuclear power plant incidents
Mass Evacuation model is a simulation tool for the
assessment and analysis of urban area evacuation
plans.
Transportation Evacuation System model is used for
emergency management and evacuation is case of
nuclear incidents. It is based on an advanced version
of the NETVAC1 simulator
Regional Evacuation Modeling System model is a
decision support tool mainly used for traffic control
and management in case of emergencies
Transportation Evacuation Decision Support System
is based on MASSVAC model and used for traffic
management and evaluation of evacuation time for
nuclear power plants in Virginia
Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System is used for
emergency management in large scale evacuation
process and integrates a fortran based simulator, an
advanced graphic user interface and a Geographic
Information Systems

Configurable Emergency Management and

Planning System combines a discrete event
simulation model and a Geographic Informative
System to support evacuation planning
management.
Dynamic Discrete Disaster Decision Simulation
System combine san ARENA simulation model
with a GIS and SQLServer database to simulate
evacuation process and resources deployment.

Authors
Sheffi et al.

McLean et al.
Hiramatsu
Lieberman
Hobeika and Jamei; Hobeika and Kim
Han

Tufekci and Kisko

Hobeika

Rathi and Solanki; Rathi

Pidd et al.

Wu et al.

Table 1 A summary of the evacuation models reviewed in Pham et al. (2008)

A real time decision support system based on

simulation and optimization algorithms has

SCS M&S Magazine 2010 / n2 (April)

(environment, expectations, influences, model

choice, forces and force weights) and outlines

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a set of guidelines for building and testing

new social potential models along with
modifications to existing models.
Kaup et al. (2006) present a simulation model
for emergency planning and crowd
management purposes. In particular, the
model aims at simulating crowd behavior
under both panic and non-panic conditions
both in a constrained (room) and
unconstrained (outside) environment.
Perumalla and Beckerman (2007) propose an
analysis approach to large-scale vehicular
network simulations. In particular the authors
first develop an analysis methodology that
could be used to solve the problem of
presenting usable metrics to the decision
makers and to track the refinement of
simulation result quality across multiple runs
and then apply this methodology to the
evacuation phenomenon by developing
simplified models and observing the
evacuation time distributions.
Small scale evacuations mainly deal with the
evacuation of people and goods from small
areas (i.e. buildings) in case of emergency (i.e.
fires, bombs, etc.). Needless to say, as in the
case of large scale evacuation models, most of
the proposed approaches are based on M&S
(also combined with optimization algorithms)
and aim at improving the evacuation
efficiency in terms of evacuation times,
assessment and analysis of evacuation plans,
routes/path optimization. Specific studies also
focus on human behavior during evacuation.
In the sequel, some of the research works
submitted and presented at the Emergency
Simulation Track (part of the SCSC) are
briefly described.
Filippoupolitis et al. (2008) address the
building evacuation optimization problem by
developing an agent-oriented Distributed
Building Evacuation Simulator (DBES). The
DBES is integrated with a wireless sensor
network which offers a closed loop
representation of the evacuation procedure,
including the sensed data and the emergency
decision making.
Su et al. (2008) develop a discrete-event
computer simulation model for assessing
evacuation programs and provide a
comprehensive idea of evacuation plans for
hospital buildings in the event of a possible
bomb threat. In particular, a simulation model
for the hospital building located in Taipei has

SCS M&S Magazine 2010 / n2 (April)

been developed by using the object-oriented

simulation tool eM-Plant.
Filippoupolitis and Gelembe (2009) develop a
decision support system for disaster
management in buildings. In particular the
authors propose the use of a system that
provides movement decision support to
evacuees by directing them through the
shortest or less hazardous routes to the exit.
The system operates in a distributed manner,
and computes the best evacuation routes in
real-time while a hazard is spreading inside
the building.
Ekizoglu (2009) develops and use a Simulex
models for analyzing the emergency
evacuation problem within the Istanbul
Technical University. Several evacuation
scenarios have been tested and compared in
terms of evacuation times.
Kobes et al. (2009) address the possibility
using virtual reality for studying human
behavior in fires. In particular, they develop a
research tool (BART, Behavioral Assessment
and Research Tool) whose main aim is to
generate the information that fire safety
engineers need for the design of a safe
building that complies with actual human
behavior in fires.
Conclusions
A complete survey of all significant research
work developed in the Emergency Simulation
area is beyond the scope of this article.
Nevertheless the literature review provided
should help the reader to better understand
how Modeling & Simulation can be profitably
used for preventing disasters, mitigating their
effects, controlling and managing emergencies
and improving evacuation efficiency on both
large and small scale. Additional efforts are
still required to put together ideas for better
use and integration (i.e. standardization) of
M&S, 3D virtual environments (gaming
technologies), artificial intelligence techniques
and Geographic Informative Systems.
To this end, the Society for Computer
Simulation International (SCS) is strongly
promoting research in this specific area within
the International Simulation Multi-conference,
ISMC. The ISMC 2010, that will be held next
July in Ottawa (Canada), will include, not
only an Emergency Simulation Track (as part
of the Summer Computer Simulation
Conference,
http://www.msc-

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les.org/Conf/SCSC2010/emergency/), but also

a conference on International Cooperation on
Crises and Risky Enterprises (ICCRE, part of
the Grand Challenges in Modeling &
Simulation,
http://www.mscles.org/Conf/SCSC2010/GCMS). Together the
Emergency Simulation track and the ICREE
conference will provide a unique framework
for scientists, researchers and simulationists in
which to discuss M&S decision support
systems for major emergencies as well as
promising trends and innovative solutions for
emergency simulation.
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http://www.scs.org/newsletters/201001/index_file/Files/MSResolution487.pdf
Tufekci, S., and T. M. Kisko. 1991. Regional
Evacuation Modeling System REMS: A
Decision Support System for Emergency
Area Evacuations. Computers and
Industrial Engineering, 211-4: 89-93.
Wu, S., L. Shuman, B. Bidanda, M. Kelly, K.
Sochats, and C. Balahan. 2007.
Embedding GIS in Disaster Simulation.
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SCS M&S Magazine 2010 / n2 (April)

Biography
Francesco Longo received his PhD in
Mechanical Engineering from the University
of Calabria; he is currently an Assistant
Professor and Director of the Modelling &
Simulation Center, Laboratory of Enterprise
Solutions (MSC-LES). His research interests
include modelling and simulation for training
procedures in complex environments, supply
chain management and security. He has
published more than 80 papers in international
journals and conferences.
He is Associate Editor and Guest Editor of
Simulation: Transactions of the SCS. He is
Guest Editor of the International Journal of
Simulation and Process Modelling. He is
Editor-in-Chief of the SCS M&S Newsletter
and he has extensively supported the
organisation of international conferences as
General co-Chair, Program Co-Chair and
Track Chair (MAS, EMSS, I3M, SCSC, etc.).

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