Load forecasting:

The prediction of load and energy level for future by a utility for a given region is called load forecasting.

Objectives of Load Forecasting:

1.
2.
3.
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to make advanced decision for profitable and judicious investment in power sector
to satisfy the future needs of power demand by estimating additional installed capacity.
To keep the reliability of the power system at desired level.
To provide basis for examining energy supply problem of a country in a broader perspective.

Classification of Load forecasting:

A.

Based on duration of future period:

i.
Long term forecasting
ii.
Short term forecasting
iii.
Immediate forecasting
B.
Based on geographical areas:
i.
National load forecast
ii.
Regional load forecast
iii.
Specific area wise load forecast
C.
Based on power generation, transmission and distribution:
i.
Load forecasting for generation
ii.
Load forecasting for transmission and distribution
D.
Based on global consideration
A-i. Long term forecasting: This is a load forecasting for next 20-30 years or more which uses the last
years data to predict the load for coming years. This forecast is mainly used for planning thr
generation expansion strategy of the utility. This forecast also provides basis for examining the
energy supply problems of the country in a broader perspective.
A-ii. Short term forecasting: This is a load forecasting for next 2 to 5 years and is usually done to
decide operating procedure and to prepare budget estimates.
A-iii. Immediate forecasting: It is the prediction of next hour demand which requires the demand data
of same time of the last day, of same day of the last week, of same day of last month and so on. If
these data are known, possible growth rate can be calculated which is fed to the computer for
predicting next hours demand. This type of forecasting is vital for efficient operation of the
thermal system specially to save fuel cost.
B-i. National load forecast: This tells us about annual peak load and annual energy for the whole
country. This forecast is done by CGOU on a long term basis.
B-ii. regional load forecast: it is carried out for some large geographical region of a country. This is
done oth by CGOU and privately or investor owned utility. This is also forecasted on a long term
basis.
B-iii. Specific area wise forecast: this is a forecast done usually in a particular area usually carried out
by small local utility.
C-i. Load forecasting for generation: This is done to find the size of new power plant (both big and
small). The size of new power plant is the forecasted peak demand plus the additional spinning
reserve.
C.ii. Load forecasting for transmission and distribution: Accurate forecasting of demand to be met
by the transmission and distribution line is a must as otherwise it is difficult to select optimum
conductor and transformer size. If the line is constructed without load forecast, the line may cause
large voltage drops as demand increase which will deteriorate the quality of supply. In case of a
transmission line, steady state stability limit will be violated.

D. Global consideration: The energy requirement of the world for many years to come is predicted
mainly to evaluate the energy resources scenario and the environmental impacts associated with its
utilization. Institutions like World Bank, World Energy Commission etc. usually carry out this
forecasting.

Tools/Approaches of Load forecasting:

There are basically two approaches in load forecasting:
i. Explanatory approach ii. Time series approach
i. Explanatory approach:
In this approach, any change in the inputs will affect the output of the system in a predictable way
assuming that the cause and effect relationship between input and output is constant.

input

output
Cause and effect relationship

So the first task while forecasting is to find the cause and effect relationship by observing the
output of the system and relating that to the corresponding inputs.
ii. Time series approach:
In this approach of forecasting, the system is treated as a black box and no attempt is made to
discover the factors affecting its behaviour. The reasons for treating the system as black box are:
a)
the system may not be understood and even if it is understood, it may be extremely difficult
to measure the relationship governing its behaviour.
b)
The main concern may be only to predict what will happen and not to
know why it happens.

Energonomics:
Energonomics ( energy +economics) is the science dealing with the energy in relation to the economy. It is
seen that the yearly consumption in a country depends on the economic factors in the country.
Energonomics is helpful to forecast the future electrical energy demand taking the countrys economy into
consideration.

SIMCRED equation for forecasting electrical energy demand:

SIMCRED stands for the Simulation Model for Commercial, Non commercial and Electrical Energy
Demand. SIMCRED equation is used to predict demand of all types of energy i.e. commercial, non
commercial and electrical for future period. The SIMCRED equation to predict electrical energy is as
follows:
Log (EEL/N) =-0.896+1.1581*log(Y/N) +0.499*log ((NU)/N)
Where,
EEL=Electrical energy in 1000 KWH
N =Population in millions
NU =Urban population in millions
Y =Gross national product in billions US$
Y/N=per capita GNP in US$
If for any future period, the variables per capita GNP and (NU)/N are known, one can easily predict the
future requirement of per capita electrical energy (EEL/N).

Factors to be kept in mind while forecasting:

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7.
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9.

the general geographical region and sub regions where power is to be sold
Topography and climate of the region and its effect on the load requirement.
Population distribution, past growth and estimated future growth.
Availability of labor, past distribution and estimated future available labor.
Natural resources of the region viz. agriculture, timber, minerals and raw materials for
manufacturing industries.
Income per person.
Main economic activities i.e. agriculture, textile etc.
The existing use and the existing rate of consumption of electrical energy.
Relative cost of electrical energy and the other forms of energy available in the region

Errors and Uncertainties in Load forecasting:

Whatever be the method of forecast, the actual value in nth year never equals the predicted value for that
year.
Uncertainty results from error in any one of the past data, presently collected data and the error in the
degree of certainty with which historical trend supposed to continue in the future, the error in the survey
data (initialization data) and test data etc. The chief sources of errors are as follows:
1.
2.
3.
4.

5.

Error in the historically recorded data.

Error in measuring instruments.
Error in calculation.
Error introduced by particular forecasting method
Error in coincidence factor and load factors.