JAES - Vol.10 - No.3

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Institute for Research and Design in Commerce
and Industry - IIPP; www.iipp.rs
For publisher: Prof. dr Branko Vasi
Copublisher
Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering Belgrade
University; www.sf.bg.ac.rs
For copublisher: Prof. dr Slobodan Gvozdenovi
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Prof. dr Jovan Todorovi
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade;
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Editorial Board
Prof. dr Gradimir Danon,
Faculty of Forestry, Belgrade;
Doc. dr Duan Milutinovi,
Institute for Transport and Traffic CIP, Belgrade;
Mr ore Milosavljevi,
CPI - Process Engineering Center, Belgrade;
Prof. dr Miodrag Zec,
Faculty of Philosophy, Belgrade;
Prof. dr Nenad aji,
Mining and Geology Faculty, Belgrade;
Prof. dr Vlastimir Dedovi,
Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engeneering, Belgrade;
Prof. dr Mirko Vujoevi,
Faculty of organizational sciences, Belgrade;
Doc. dr Vladimir Popovi,
Doc. dr Vesna Spasojevi Brki,
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade.
ISSN 1451-4117 UDC 33
International Editorial Board

Prof. dr Vukan Vui,
University of Pennsylvania, USA;
Prof. dr Robert Bjekovi,
Hochschule Ravensburg-Weingarten, Germany;
Prof. dr Jozef Aronov,
Research Institute for Certification JSC, Russia;
Prof. dr Jezdimir Kneevi,
MIRCE Akademy, England;
Dr Neboja Kovaevi,
Geotechnical consulting group, England;
Adam Zielinski,
Solaris Bus & Coach, Poland;
Prof. dr Milo Kneevi,
Faculty for Civil Engineering, Montenegro;
MSc Sinia Vidovi,
Energy Testing & Balance Inc, USA;
Dr Zdravko Milovanovi,
Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Banja Luka.
Publishing Council
Prof. dr Milorad Milovanevi,
Milutin Ignjatovi,
Institute for Transport and Traffic CIP, Belgrade;
Dragan Beli,
Transport Company Lasta, Belgrade;
Dr Deda elovi, Port of Bar, Bar;
Dr Drago erovi, Adriatic Shipyard, Bijela;
Cvijo Babi,
Belgrade Waterworks and Sewerage, Belgrade;
Nenad Jankov, Power Plant Kostolac B, Kostolac;
Miroslav Vukovi, Mercator Business System, Belgrade;
Duan uraevi, Euro Sumar, Belgrade.
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Journal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)2
CONTENTS
Dr Goran Putnik
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS AND ENTERPRISES: CLOUD AND 127 - 134
UBIQUITOUS MANUFACTURING AND AN ARCHITECTURE
MSc Bojan Jovanovski, Dr Robert Minovski, Dr Siegfried Voessner,
Dr Gerald Lichtenegger
135 - 142
COMBINING SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND DESCRETE EVENT SIMULATIONOVERVIEW OF HYBRID SIMULATION MODELS
Dr Isabel L. Nunes
143 - 146
FUZZY SYSTEMS TO SUPPORT INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
Dr Mirjana Misita, Dr Galal Senussia, MSc Marija Milovanovi
A COMBINING GENETIC LEARNING ALGORITHM AND RISK MATRIX MODEL 147 - 152
USING IN OPTIMAL PRODUCTION PROGRAM
Jelena Jovanovi, Dr Dragan Milanovi, Dr Mili Radovi, Radisav uki
INVESTIGATIONS OF TIME AND ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF THE COMPLEX 153 - 160
PRODUCT PRODUCTION CYCLE
Dr Vidosav Majstorovi
TOWARDS A DIGITAL FACTORY - RESEARCH IN THE WORLD 161 - 165
AND OUR COUNTRY
Dr Jezdimir Kneevi
TIME TO CHOOSE BETWEEN SCIENTIFIC AND ADMINISTRATIVE 167 - 173
APPROACH TO RELIABILITY
EVENTS REVIEW
174
ANNOUNCEMENT OF EVENTS 175 - 176

BOOK RECOMMENDATION
177
INSTRUCTIONS FOR AUTHORS 178 - 179

EDITORIAL AND ABSTRACTS IN SERBIAN LANGUAGE 180 - 184
Institute for research and design in commerce & industry, Belgrade. All rights reserved.
EDITORIAL
President of the SIE 2012

Organizing Committee
PREFACE TO SPECIAL TOPIC: SELECTED PAPERS FROM
THE 5TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM OF INDUSTRIAL
ENGINEERING SIE 2012
The 5th International Symposium of Industrial Engineering SIE 2012, held in June, 2012 in
Belgrade, Serbia, was aimed at providing a unique platform to meet frontier researchers, scientists,
as well as practitioners and share cutting-edge developments in the field. The SIE 2012, fifth in the series
of SIE meetings, was organized by Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty f Mechanical Engineering, University of Belgrade, Serbia and Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies Stuttgart, Germany.
The Symposium also fostered networking, collaboration and joint effort among the conference participants to advance the theory and practice as well as to identify major trends in Industrial Engineering
today. Proceedings with over 70 papers and disscusions by more then 160 authors have contributed
to better comprehension the role and importance of Industrial Engineering in this country, both in domain of scientific work and everyday practice. Despite the widely varying backgrounds and interests
of the participants, the schedule of the meeting kept them all fully engaged by providing a platform
where ideas at the cutting edge of industrial engineering could be exchanged with great enthusiasm.
We think that the synergies and international collaborations resulted through sharing of knowledge
and cross-fertilization of ideas at the earlier SIE meetings led to greater maturity at the SIE 2012.
This traditional symposium has made a great contribution to improving awareness of the importance
of industrial engineering at the international, national and local levels. The presentations, which
were organized during the symposium, presented the achievement at all levels of scientific research
through a systematic approach, to specific practices, both in large systems and small and medium
enterprises. Also, further development of cooperation in the field of industrial engineering with the
aim of realization of a larger number of projects of international domain is necessary. Great dynamics
trends in the field of industrial engineering require expertise and wisdom to preserve the long-lasting
knowledge base of industrial engineering, together with establishment of flexibility and customization, that new challenges brought by the times in which we live and do business.
Issues number 3 and 4 of the Journal of Applied Engineering Science contain a selection of papers
on all aspects of interdisciplinary themes treated in the SIE 2012. There are 11 papers that cover topics in the fields such as quality management, production management, risk management, project`s appraisal
etc. The most relevant contributions are selected after a standard review process by disciplinary experts.
We give thanks to the members of SIE Scientific Committee and authors, as well to our sponsors.
Special thanks are due to the staff of the Journal of Applied Engineering Science and all the referees
for their careful work.
Belgrade, June 2012
Prof. dr Vesna Spasojevi-Brki
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2511
Paper number: 10(2012)3, 229, 127-134
ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS AND

ENTERPRISES: CLOUD AND UBIQUITOUS
MANUFACTURING AND AN ARCHITECTURE
Dr Goran Putnik *
University of Minho, Faculty of Engineering, Braga, Portugal
In this paper, in the first part an introduction to development of the concepts of Ubiquitous and Cloud
Manufacturing is presented, as a model of advanced manufacturing systems and enterprises. In the
second part an architecture, that might guide the implementation and exploitation of the Ubiquitous
and Cloud Manufacturing is presented through an informal and conceptual presentation.
Key words: Ubiquitous, Manufacturing systems, Enterprises, Clouds, Architecture, Paradigm
INTRODUCTION
The traditional Manufacturing was superseded. The new dynamic and global business
model forced traditional production processes
to change in the sense of to be integrated in a
global chain of resources and stakeholders. The
agility and quick reaction to market changes is
essential, and the high availability and capacity
to effectively answer to requirements is one of
the main sustainability criterion.
Globalization, innovation and ICT are transforming many sectors to anywhere, anytime platforms, towards an intelligent business model
under design anywhere, make anywhere, sell
anywhere paradigm [03]. We would add anytime too. Traditional suppliers and customers
are transformed in services, where supplying
or using profiles are a question of needs or context. One service (a Calculator, for instance) can
execute (supply) something using other services
(Add, Sub, Mult and Div operations) [15].
All these performances are considered on Ubiquitous and Cloud Manufacturing [08, 09, 18] suggest a manufacturing versionof ubiquitous and
cloud computing (respectively) ubiquitous and
cloud manufacturing and manufacturing with
direct adoption of ubiquitous and cloud computing technologies. In this context, resources are
seen as services, essentially. This manufacturing
service-oriented network can stimulate productionoriented to service-oriented manufacturing [01].
towards these virtual architecture. To use efficiently those infra-structures the applications
must be transformed and follow services oriented applications pattern.
In this paper, in the first part an introduction to
development of the concepts of Ubiquitous and
Cloud Manufacturing is presented, as a model
of advanced manufacturing systems and enterprises. In the second part an architecture, that
might guide the implementation and exploitation
of the Ubiquitous and Cloud Manufacturing is
presented through an informal and conceptual
presentation.
MANUFACTURING AS SERVICE SYSTEMS
Industrial and Product-Service Systems (IPS2)
represents a paradigm shift from the separated
consideration of products and services to a new
product understanding consisting of integrated
products and services creates innovation potential to increase the sustainable competitiveness
of mechanical engineering and plant design. The
latter allows business models which do not focus on the machine sales but on the use for the
customer e.g. in form of continuously available
machines. The business model determines the
complexity of delivery processes. Characteristics
of Industrial Product-Service Systems allow covering all market demands [05]. Figure 1 shows
service offer of Mori Seiki, while Figure 2 and
Figure 3 shows types of Product-Service Systems and scientific fields of action respectively.
Many of existent infra-structures are already

ubiquitous and/or cloud based or are changing
* Faculty of Engineering, Largo do Capo, 4704-553, Braga; putnikgd@dps.uminho.pt
Paper presented at the SIE 2012
127
Dr Goran Putnik - Advanced manufacturing systems and enterprises: cloud and ubiquitous
manufacturing and an architecture
Figure 1: Service offer of Mori Seiki [06, 05].
Figure 2: Types of Product-Service Systems [06,05]
Figure 3: Scientific fields of action [05]
UBIQUITOUS SYSTEMS
Ubiquity is a synonym for omnipresence, the property
of being present everywhere (Wikipedia). The state
or quality of being, or appearing to be, everywhere at
once; actual or perceived omnipresence: the ability
to be at all places at the same time; usually only attributed to God (Wiktionary).
128
According to Weiser (1993) Ubiquitous Computing represents: Long-term the PC and workstation will wither because computing access will be
everywhere: in the walls, on wrists, and in scrap
computers (like scrap paper) lying about to be
grabbed as needed.
Journal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)3, 229
Computing technology has evolved up to the

point when Ubiquitous Computing System development and operation are possible, using present network devices, protocols and applications.
From the other hand, ubiquity has been addressed in relation to manufacturing systems as
well. In (Foust, 1975) [04] the term ubiquitous
is explicitly defined to be functional in an empirical context The types of manufacturing which
are both market oriented and have a frequency
of occurrence greater than a specific limit which
can be empirically defined are ubiquitous. .
Foust (1975) cites Alfred Webers definition of
ubiquitous manufacturing too: Ubiquity naturally
does not mean that a commodity is present or
producible at every mathematical point of the
country or region. It means that the commodity
is so extensively available within the region that,
wherever a place of consumption is located,
there are opportunities for producing it in the
vicinity. Ubiquity is therefore not a mathematical,
but a practical and approximate, term (praktischerNaherungsbegriff).
To the above definitions (by (Foust, 1975) and (Weber, 1928)), [16] which consider ubiquity of resources anywhere, we add the ubiquity in time anytime, which (the anytime), from its side, implies
the dynamic, on-line, seamless, enterprises organizational and manufacturing system networking and
reconfigurability, or adaptability, that requires new
organisational architectures and meta-enterprise
organizations as creating and operating environments, makes the UMS a true new paradigm.
Theredore, Ubiquitous Manufacturing Systems

and Enterprises concept is related to the availability of management, control and operation
functions of manufacturing systems and enterprises anywhere, anytime, using direct control,
notebooks or handheld devices. It is related with
Ubiquitous Computing Systems.
Ubiquitous Manufacturing Systems (UMS),
therefore, implies ubiquity of three general types
of resources in organizations:
material processing resources (e.g. machine
tools and other manufacturing/production
equipment as resources),
information processing resources (e.g. computational resources includes hardware
and software), and
knowledge resources (i.e. human resources,
considering the humans as unique resources
for knowledge generation and new products
and services creation, and, at the end, the
ultimate effectiveness of organizations).
However, there are two quite different approaches to the concept of UMS.
The first concept, considers ubiquity of the
MS based on, i.e. uses, the ubiquitous computational systems (UCS), Figure 4.a,
The second one which is original our approach, considers ubiquity of the MS as a
homomorphism , i.e. it is a mapping, of the
ubiquitous computational systems (UCS),
Figure 4.b [08, 09, 10].
Figure 4: a) UMS has UCS as an operating system only Ubiquity of Computational resources only; b)
UMS operates as UCS Ubiquity of all Resources: Material processing, Knowledge, and Computational
resources [10]
The similar idea was referred in (Murakami &Fujinuma; 2000), (ref. in (Serrano & Fischer; 2007)).
This approach is referred as well as Ubiquitous
networking that emphasises the possibility of

building networks of persons and objects for
sending and receiving information of all kinds
129
and thus providing the users with services anytime and at any place.
The hypothesis is that UMS should be based on
a hyper-sized manufacturing network, consisting of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or millions of nodes, i.e. of manufacturing resources
units, freely accessible and independent, Figure 5.
Further implications are that
1) UMS manufacturing units should be, in the
limit,primitive, i.e. individuals, or individual
companies, and individually owned headwear/software resources,
2) Management and operation of UMS should
ne informed by the discipline of chaos and
complexity management in organizations, e.g.
Chaordic System Thinking (CST) model [02]
3) Specific instruments should be used, such

as meta-organizations (e.g. Market of Resources model), brokering and virtuality,
4) These UMS hyper-sized manufacturing
networks could be seen as manufacturing
resources Internet of Things,
networks could be seen as manufacturing
production social networks,
networks form and use clouds.
CLOUD BASED PLATFORM
Presentation of the cloud is transcribed from
(Schubert L., ) - as the reference source created within the EC initiative and therefore it is
the most relevant for an advanced Manufacturing Systems and/or enterprise.
Figure 5: Figurative presentation of VE evolution: from conservative, minimal network domain

(a), towards ubiquitous network domain (d)
A cloud is a platform or infrastructure that enables execution of code (services, applications

etc.), in a managed and elastic fashion, whereas
managed means that reliability according to
pre-defined quality parameters is automatically
ensured and elastic implies that the resources
are put to use according to actual current requirements observing overarching requirement definitions implicitly, elasticity includes both up- and
downward scalability of resources and data, but
also load-balancing of data throughput.
130
Cloud has a number of particular characteristics that distinguish it from classical resource
and service provisioning environments: (1) it is
(more-or-less) infinitely scalable; (2) it provides
one or more of an infrastructure for platforms, a
platform for applications or applications (via services) themselves; (3) thus clouds can be used
for every purpose from disaster recovery/business continuity through to a fully outsourced ICT
service for an organisation; (4) clouds shift the
costs for a business opportunity from CAPEX to
OPEX which allows finer control of expenditure
and avoids costly asset acquisition and maintenance reducing the entry threshold barrier; (5)
currently the major cloud providers had already
invested in large scale infrastructure and now
offer a cloud service to exploit it; (6) as a consequence the cloud offerings are heterogeneous
and without agreed interfaces; (7) cloud providers essentially provide datacentres for outsourcing; (8) there are concerns over security if a business places its valuable knowledge, information
and data on an external service; (9) there are
concerns over availability and business continuity with some recent examples of failures; (10)
there are concerns over data shipping over anticipated broadband speeds.
Concerning the EU policy towards clouds, the
document refers two main recommendations:
Recommendation 1: The EC should stimulate
research and technological development in the
area of Cloud Computing
Recommendation 2: The EC together with
Member States should set up the right regulatory framework to facilitate the uptake of Cloud
computing
Concerning the types of clouds, for an advanced
Manufacturing Systems and/or enterprise, the
most important are the concepts of cloud types:
(1) IaaS - Infrastructure as a Service, (2) PaaS
- Platform as a Service, (3) SaaS - Software as
a Service, and collectively *aaS (Everything as
a Service) all of which imply a service-oriented
architecture.
AN OVERALL SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE FOR

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING
Advanced manufacturing system architecture,
Figure 6, is a cloud based architecture that represents the manufacturing system as a service
system, integrating the services for
1) Real-time Data Acquisition Services for realtime data acquisition from the equipment
through the embedded intelligent information
devices services type/group Equipment Intelligent Monitoring Systems,
2) Product Design Services, that integrates four
environments: 1) Computer Aided Design, 2)
Product data repository with embedded Intelligent System for Decision Making (for accessing all relevant data, actual and historic
as well as data analysis) from the equipment
in use, 3) Mixed-reality Environment, and
4) Co-Creation (Collaborative) Environment
for co-creative design services type/group
Product Design Services;
3) Equipment Operation Services, that integrates four environments: 1) Equipment
Data Real-time with embedded Intelligent
System for Decision Making, that provides all
relevant data, actual and historic as well as
data analysis and management suggestions,
necessary for the productuion management
Figure 6: Overall System Architecture for development, implementation and validation

131
2) Management environment, for monitoring, scheduling and controlling management

activities, with embedded Intelligent System
for Decision Making, 3) Mixed-reality Environment, and 4) Co-Creation (Collaborative)
Environment for co-creative management
services;
4) The cloud infrastructure, that will provide the
1) infrastructure for the manufacturing system
applications of all three types of resources:
material processing resources, information
processing resources (i.e. computational resources), and knowledge resources in the
form of IaaS - Infrastructure as a Service; 2)
platform for the manufacturing system applications in the form of PaaS - Platform as a
Service, and 3) manufacturing system software business applications in the form of
SaaS - Software as a Service.
ICT Platform Architecture
The logical architecture of the ICT Platform is
architecturefor integration of Representation,
Mixed-reality representation, Real-time management model, and Communication for collaborative management.
It is basically a 3.tier layer architecture consisting of (1) Presentation Layer, (2) Business Layer
and (3) Data Layer.
The Presentation Layer represents/defines applications and support for all interfaces, views,
presentations and communications for users.
The Business Layer represents/defines applications and support for all business applications
such as Decision Making applications, Intelligent
System applications, Services Workflows.
The Data Layer represents/defines applications
and support for all applications for data repository and management, including knowledge bases
(e.g. for Intelligent System on the upper level).
For each layer the corresponding technology to
be employed is referred.
Co-Creation and Semiotics and Pragmatics
platform
Advanced manufacturing system architecture will
integrate environments, or so-called, co-creative
platforms, for three co-creative environments: 1)
for product design processes, 2) for operation, or
production, management processes, and 3) for
integrated design-production processes.
Figure 7: Advanced manufacturing system co-creative platform, for three co-creative environments: 1) for
product design processes, 2) for operation, or production, management processes, and 3) for integrated
design-production processes
132
Figure 8: A vision of the multi-user video-conferencing system as the co-creative environment
It means that the co-creative processes both

group of agents will perform independently, i.e.
the designers will be capable to perform their
processes in their own environment separately
from the managers 1st Co-Creative cycle, and
the managers will be be capable to perform their
processes in their own environment separately
from the designers 2nd Co-Creative cycle,.
However, additionally, both groups will be capable to perform their processes jointly in a fully
integrated and systemic way 3rd Co-Creative
cycle, Figure 7.
Social sustainability: Advanced manufacturing

system components will support Social sustainability goals enabling The creation of new jobs
This effect will be possible because the advanced
manufacturing system is conceived as a service
system meaning a great degree of openness
for performing these services, the maintenance
management and design services, by individuals (free-lancers), micro and small companies,
that would form a dynamic network of services
providers. In this way a potential for new jobs
creation will be dramatically increased.
The supporting technique will be the multi-user

video-conferencing with auxiliary functionalities.
A vision is presented on the Figure 8.
These three cycles, and the video-conferencing
environment, will provide full semiotic/pragmatics effects and support in order to enhance to
maximum the cognitive and creative capacities
of the participants, and a full co-creative, or codesign or co-evolving, and truly systemic environment.
CONCLUSIONS
Sustainability
The three aspects of sustainability: economic,
environmental and social should be implemented in the following way: Figure 7 and Figure 8.
Economic and environmental sustainability:
Economic and environmental sustainability will
be based on implementation of specific softwaremodules, with corresponded analytical models,
for continuous evaluation of energy consumption and
costs, environmental pollution and associated costs.
These models and applications will be embedded in data acquisition services, see the System
Architecture, Figure 15.
The architecture presented is of a general nature andopen in various aspects, with structural
elements, in nature and in number, that enables
development of an advanced manufacturing system or enterprise on different complexity levels
which is on of the primary requirements for the
capacity of achieving sustainability. Therefore,
the architecture presented may have a number
of implementation forms.
It would be useful to remind that a number of underlying technologies should be considered, and which
were not possible to analyze due to the papers
limited space. E.g. embedded intelligent information devices, real-time management (and design),
mixed reality and augmented reality, semiotics and
pragmatics, co-creation, chaos and complexity
management, the theory of sustainability, web 2.0 to
web 4.0, and others. In short, many of technologies
are already present. However, from the other hand,
there is a number of open technical, organizational
and conceptual problems that requires hard work in
the future. Two of the virtually most important problems to work on are the interoperability, or integration, of the Ubiquitous and Cloud Manufacturing and
their adoption in society (and industry of course).
133
ACKNOWLEGMENTS
The authors wish to acknowledge the support of:
1) The Foundation for Science and Technology
FCT, Project PTDC/EME-GIN/102143/2008,
Ubiquitous oriented embedded systems for
globally distributed factories of manufacturing
enterprises, 2) EUREKA, Project E! 4177-ProFactory UES
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Project reference: POSC/EIA/60210/2004,
submitted to Fundaopara a Cincia e a
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PTDC/EME-GIN/72035/2006,
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Paper sent to revision: 28.08.2012.
Paper ready for publication: 27.09.2012.
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2512
Paper number: 10(2012)3, 230, 135-142
COMBINING SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND DISCRETE

EVENT SIMULATIONS - OVERVIEW OF HYBRID
SIMULATION MODELS
MSc Bojan Jovanovski *
Ss. Cyril and Methodi University, Faculty of Mecahical Engineering, Skopje, Macedonia
Dr Robert Minovski
Ss. Cyril and Methodi University, Faculty of Mecahical Engineering, Skopje, Macedonia
Dr Siegfried Voessner
Institute of Engineering and Business Informatics, TU Graz, Austria
Simulation and modelling has been widely accepted as one of the most important aspects of the
Industrial engineering. The application and use of simulation models has grown exponentially since
the 1950 until today. Over the years, the complexity of the simulated aspects has been adapted to
the complexity of the analysed cases which has risen proportionally too. That is why techniques
used many years ago, can often not give an adequate representation of the real world any more.
For that reason, we propose to use hybrid simulation models, which are a combination of simulation paradigms in order to cope with this problem. In this paper, we will give an overview of selected
researches and applications with an emphasis on Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics,
as one of the core simulation based techniques in that area.
Key words: Hybrids, Models, Simulation of models, System dynamics, Discrete-event simulation
INTRODUCTION
The advances in Industrial Engineering (IE) have
gone a long way since the early beginnings and
the experiments of Taylor, Gilbreth, Babbage,
Towne and others. Not so much in the area of
the field, but in the direction of tackling even the
smallest details possible. In order to do this the
complexity of the problems grew, with that the
data needed to be obtained and processed was
also getting bigger. The computers played huge
factor in keeping the Industrial Engineering alive
and constantly being in trend. Not only because
of the hardware possibilities and the calculations
that could have been made now, but also from
the point of view that many software packages
have been developed in order to solve some
kind of an IE problem. There are solutions for
finding an optimal layout, managing production
processes, tackling ergonomic issues, calculating cost/profit etc. (the intention is not to name
vendors here).
Simulation and modelling has been widely accepted as one of the most important aspects of
the Industrial Engineering. The application and
use of the simulation models has grown exponentially since the 50 until today. This is mainly
because of the advances in the computation
field, but also because of the increased number
(percentage) of acceptance by the academia and
the industry (Robinson 2004a). The complexity
of the simulated issues has been adapted to the
complexity of the real world cases and has risen
proportionally. Many of the tools and techniques
used many years ago can not present the level
of details that is needed today in some cases.
One of the theses for future trends in the field
of simulation by Robinson (2004) is that in order to deal with this, a combination of techniques
would be required. Also, in (Banks et al. 2003)
few of the experts asked for bigger accent to be
put in interoperability of simulation software. In
that direction, the best from the selected techniques would be taken and they would complement each other, resulting in the synergy factor.
*Ss. Cyril and Methodi University, Faculty of Mecahical Engineering, Skopje, Macedonia; bojan.jovanoski@mf.edu.mk
135
MSc Bojan Jovanovski - Combining system dynamics and discrete event

simulations - overview of hybrid simulation models
In this paper, a comparison and combination of

System Dynamics and Discrete Event Simulation (DES) will be presented. At the end one research example will be presented, showing why
and when this should be done.
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
System Dynamics (SD) is a relatively new technique that has been populated in the last 20
years. The basic principle underlying system
dynamics is that the structure of a system determines its behaviour over time (Forrester 1968;
Sterman 2006). SD is all about the whole and
looking at the system as a unit. In normal cases,
a lot of people use the divide-and-conquer system in order to solve complex problems. The philosophy of SD is that every element is connected
somehow with other element(s) and those relationships determine how the system performs
over time. It is best used when modelling very
complex systems that are very hard to perceive
and understand.
There are two main approaches that help define
a SD model. The first one is the causal loops
(and feedback loops), which are widely spread
and very useful. Most of the time, they are the
first step in developing a SD model, helping in
the conceptualisation. The second tool is the
stock and flow diagrams, which aid to describe
the model using data. The easiest way to describe this is to think of models like system of water tanks with pipes and valves.
In the research conducted by Helal et al. (2007)
they have stated that using SD at the operational level of the manufacturing system has failed
to offer the needed granularity (Godding et al.,
2003; Barton et al., 2001; Baines and Harisson,
1999; Bauer et al., 1982) [03, 07, 08]. The same
was observed by Choi et al. (2006) who could
not use SD to model the performance of the individual processes in a software development
system. In (zgn & Barlas 2009) the authors
needed to increase the values of some variables
by tenfold in order for SD to capture them and
for the model to make sense.
In addition, while SD permits the study of the stability of the system over the long range, the trends
of behaviour that it generates do not indicate what
specific actions to be made and at what values of
the action parameters. Such specifications require
more detailed considerations that SD does not seem
to work with, while DES has been effective at.
136
DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION

DES is a more widely established simulation
technique (Banks et al. 2004). The system is
modelled as a series of events, that is, instants
in time when a state-change occurs, (Robinson
2004). The models are stochastic and generally
represent a queuing system. From the beginning
until now, the models are based on a specific
code that manages the simulation.
At the beginning, DES was developed and used
in the manufacturing sector. But, as the times
have changed, so have the areas where DES
has found its applicability (hospitals, public offices, document management etc.) Still, the main
advantages and principles have never changed
no matter if the simulated entities are products,
people, documents etc. (Law 2006; Banks 1998).
COMPARISON
The SD and DES are very different approaches
when trying to model a situation and there are
distinctive communities that follow each, respectively. Little bit inspired by the title of Sherwood
(2002), the following comparison will be made
in order to clarify some things. If a task of analysing a forest is given to these two types of
modellers, the SD modellers will try to look at
the forest from above, or from far away. They
will look at the landscape, see how the trees are
spread and grouped, analyse the types of trees
etc. Meanwhile, the DES modellers will try to go
in the forest and search in it, look at every tree as
an entity, the leaves of the trees, the structure of
the trees etc. Having this in mind, it was not very
difficult to accept SD a technique for the attempt
to model strategic decisions and use DES for
the operational processes and decisions. Based
on the work of Chahal & Eldabi (2008c) and Lane
(2000) a meta-comparison of both approaches is
shown in Table 1.
There are numerous articles that describe and
compare these techniques, particularly. Maybe
one of the first attempts was done by Ruiz-Usano et al. (1996) and before that Crespo-Mrquez
et al. (1993) concentrating on discrete vs. continues systems. All of them give some kind of
proposition or direction what technique is most
suitable in which cases. Most of them (Brailsford
& Hilton 2001; zgn & Barlas 2009; Sweetser
1999; Huang et al. 2004; Wakeland & Medina
2010) share the idea of the authors, presented

earlier that SD is more suitable when modelling

a system and analysing it as whole and DES
when more details are needed for the better representation. The researches have been mainly
focused on developing two same models in the
different approaches and analysing and sharing
the results (Robinson & Morecroft 2006; Crespo-Mrquez et al. 1993; Wakeland & Medina
2010; Johnson & Eberlein 2002). Tako & Robinson (2008) have gone a step further and have
analysed a model building process by five SD

and five DES modellers on a same situation- a
prison population problem. One of the detailed
and structured comparison has been done by
Chahal & Eldabi (2008), dividing the analysis in
more than thirty categories and explaining every
one of them. There are even researches that deal
with the third possible option when simulating (e.g. a
supply chain) - simulation with agents and compare
that along the previous two (Owen et al. 2008).
Table 1: Meta-comparison of two approaches

DES
SD
Problem
Seeking to understand the imapct

of randomness on the system
Aiming to understand the feedback within the

system and its impact
Scope
Operational
Strategy / Policy
System
High level of detail that physically

represents the system (detail complexity)
More macro level of detail that summarises the

system (dynamic complexity)
Methodology
Process view
Systems view
Philosophy
Randomness
COMBINING TWO MODELLING

TECHNIQUES
There are couple of examples where the idea of
hybrid models has been taken and proved useful, especially combining SD and DES. They
will be analysed according the area/industry for
which the model was created, how the models
are connected, to which level this was applied in
the organization, are the models dependent\independent and the format of the hybrid model.
In the next section, we will share our insights regarding each of these issues and present you an
example of a hybrid model being developed in
mean time.
Area/industry of application
In the manufacturing industry, there is a good example for modelling hierarchical production systems (Venkateswaran et al. 2004; Venkateswaran
& Son 2005). The authors are concentrated on
the production and production related elements,
and have developed a SD model for the longterm plans (developed by the Enterprise-level
decision maker) and short-term plans (developed by the Shop-level decision maker). In the
Feedback
paper (Rabelo et al. 2005) the authors have also

examined a manufacturing enterprise, where
they used SD to simulate a financial (reinvestment) policy and DES to simulate the production
process of one machine. They have represented
the number of machines in the SD model, so by
multiplying this variable with the output of the
DES process they can generate the production
output of the enterprise. Based on the framework
of (Helal et al. 2007), same has been tested and
a hierarchical production model has been developed (Pastrana et al. 2010).
In the recent decade, the healthcare management has been seen as a very interesting field
for the industrial engineers (the Institute of Industrial Engineers <www.iienet.org> have classified Healthcare Management in the same importance as Lean & Six Sigma, Supply Chain
Management, Ergonomics, Quality systems etc.
and some universities have a special IE curriculum for Healthcare management, e.g. TU
Eindhoven <www.tue.nl>). This interest has also
been shown in using the simulation for tackling
issues in the healthcare. Chahal and Eldabi
(2008a) have distinguished three formats how
137

the models inside a hybrid mode can communicate: Hierarchical, Process- Environment and
Integrated format. Later they have suggested a
framework for hybrid simulation in the healthcare
(Chahal & Eldabi 2010). In the work of Brailsford
et al. (2010) the authors used the hybrid models to represent two case. The first one is when
the DES model simulates a process of a patient
being examined with a whole configuration of a
hospital, while the SD simulates the community
and how a specific disease would spread. In the
second case, the DES was used to simulate operations of a contact centre, and SD to simulate demographic changes of the population being examined.
The use of hybrid modelling has found its applicability in the civil engineering as well (PenaMora et al. 2008; SangHyun Lee et al. 2007;
Alvanchi et al. 2009) dealing with problems that
are more complex to be solved with independent
simulation models or project management tools.
One of the few advantages that the authors
found with this approach is the benefit of proposals for improvement they got from the models. In
the same direction as the previous two papers,
Martin and Raffo (2001) have also suggested a
hybrid approach in the software industry. They
have worked on an issue that can be managed
with project management software as well, but
they argue that the benefit of the hybrid simulation is the experimentation that can be done. The
use of agent-based modelling and SD as hybrid
architecture can be also adapted for the automotive industry (Kieckhafer et al. 2009).
Type of connection
Combining the two different models in one hybrid one is one of the most important thing in
this whole process. This defines also how the
models will communicate, share data, behave at
a certain time point etc. Back in the 1999 there
were two papers that stress out the possibilities
and the advantages when using HLA (High Level Architecture) to combine two or more models
(Schulze 1999; Davis & Moeller 1999). Some
research done so far has employed this tool in
order to combine their models (Venkateswaran
et al. 2004; Rabelo et al. 2003; Alvanchi et al.
2009). Clearly, the benefits are enormous, but
also the effort, time and the technicality when using this approach. Some have used a more usual
ways to do this, like Excel and Visual Basic for
Applications (Brailsford et al. 2010). There are
even cases where a specific research has been
138
conducted in order to define a generic module in

order for SD and DES models to communicate
and function (Helal et al. 2007).
There are even examples where the modellers
have a single software solution (Anylogic, <www.
xjtek.com>) and combined a DES model with differential equations (Marin et al. 2010). Maybe it
is not as same as the rest of the cases, but is
worth mentioning as an approach.
Scope of the hybrid model
In this section we would like to address at what
scope is the hybrid model applied inside one
area/organization; whether the hybrid model is
about whole organization, two different functional areas inside organization, only one functional
area etc. For example, the work of Brailsford et
al. (2010) has two different cases, but both use
DES to simulate inner situations (hospital and
calling centre operations), while SD simulates
very broad scenarios (whole community or population demographics). In the case of (Martin &
Raffo 2001) the model is a representation of a
project being under away. Rabelo et al. (2005)
have modelled two different functional areas
SD for the decisions concerning allocation of
the financial resources (of the plants) and DES
for operational decisions of the plant (number
of machines, people etc.). In the case of (Venkateswaran et al. 2004), the whole hybrid model
is about the production in the enterprise; SD for
the aggregate-planning level and DES for detailed-scheduling level.
Dependent\independent models inside
hybrid model
The intention of the authors was to distinguish
if the singular models inside the hybrid one are
independent or dependent on each other. The
idea was that maybe two different modellers can
model their own model independently and then
combine the model, which is thought of as very
practical and less time consuming. This was
very hard to distinguish during the research of
the papers, because there is not so specific information regarding this issue. The authors have
made experiments by themselves regarding this
and have successfully paired two independent
models.

Type of hybrid model format

Chahal and Eldabi (2008a) have distinguished
three formats how the models inside a hybrid
model can communicate: Hierarchical, Process
- Environment and Integrated format.
The works of (Venkateswaran et al. 2004; Rabelo et al. 2005; Rabelo et al. 2003; Pastrana et
al. 2010) have a hierarchical model. (Brailsford
et al. 2010) and (Martin & Raffo 2001) both deal
with processes and how the environment deals
with the changes that they bring. In (Brailsford et al.
2010) the authors argue that no one until now has
achieved to develop a hybrid model by the Integrated format, but given the progress of the development of hybrid models, the gap is getting narrower.
EXAMPLE / CASE
For the research that is going on right now, we
are in a process of developing a hybrid model,
based on the case of one production enterprise.
This was not possible to be done in DES only

environment, and when we experimented only
with SD we did not get the needed detail level of
the production.
Because of the nature of the situation, we are
developing two separate models. One SD model
that will represent the top management decision about how many sales personal need to
be (hired/fired) and one DES model about the
process of production of the products been sold.
The models are of hierarchical format according the classification of (Chahal & Eldabi 2008a)
and aid each other so that the number of sales
personnel is according the demand, but also according the production capacity (from the DES
model). The connection was established using
the built-in functions of the used software (Plant
Simulation for DES and PowerSim for SD) and
we used Excel as data storage media through
the simulation runs. The functioning of the hybrid
model is presented in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Structure of the hybrid model

139

The model works in that way that the SD model

runs and triggers the DES model (the production) and sends the information regarding the
demand. After the production cycle is finished, it
sends back to the SD model the number of produced products. This information is received and
taken in the SD model in order to calculate the
possible sales that is one of the main inputs for
determining the number of sales people (which
was the initial goal of the simulation model).
CONCLUCSIONS
This paper summarizes and analyses different
hybrid simulation models from selected papers.
This is a relatively new area and only handful of
research papers exist. Based on the papers and
the authors view, the need for this kind of models
is very justified and will be even more important
in the near future. In order to get the most appropriate and convincing representation of the real
world, the suitable modelling approach should
be used. Because we try to simulate very complex scenarios, the need for hybrid simulation
and modelling is inevitable. For our needs, the
usage of System Dynamics and Discrete Event
Simulation has been proven most suitable.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research is supported by a MacedonianAustrian research project titled as Joint simulation model for strategic decision support funded
by both Governments.
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Paper number: 10(2012)3, 231, 143-146
FUZZY SYSTEMS TO SUPPORT

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
Dr Isabel L. Nunes *
Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculty of Science and Technology, Portugal
This paper presents the potentialities of Fuzzy Set Theory to deal with complex, incomplete and/or
vague information which is characteristic of some industrial engineering problems. Two systems
that were developed to support the activities of industrial engineering managers are presented as
examples of the use of this mathematical methodology.
Key words: Work related musculoskeletal disorders, Ergonomics, Resilience, Supply chain,
disturbances, Industrial engineering, Fuzzy systems
INTRODUCTION
Many problems in Industrial Engineering are
complex and have incomplete and/or vague information. Also the dynamics of the decision environment limit the specification of model objectives, constraints and the precise measurement
of model parameters (Kahraman et al., 2006).
Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) developed almost fifty
years ago by L.A. Zadeh (Zadeh, 1965), is an
excellent framework to help solve these problems. According to (Kahraman, 2006) Industrial
Engineering is one of the branches where FST
found a wide application area. (Kahraman et al.,
2006) present an extensive literature review and
survey of FST in Industrial Engineering. A review
of the application of FST to human-centred systems can be found in (Nunes, 2010).
This paper presents two application examples of
fuzzy decision support systems aiming to support industrial engineering managers in two different areas of risk management: ergonomics
and supply chain disturbances management.
FUZZY SET THEORY
FST provides the appropriate logical/mathematical framework to deal with and represent knowledge and data, which are complex, imprecise,
vague, incomplete and subjective (Zadeh, 1965).
It allows the elicitation and encoding of imprecise
knowledge, providing a mean for mathematical
modeling of complex phenomena where traditional mathematical models are not possible to
apply.
A fuzzy set (FS) is the generalization of classical
(crisp) set. By contrast with classical sets which
present discrete borders, FS presents a boundary with a gradual contour. Formally, let U be the
universe of discourse and u a generic element
of U, a fuzzy subset A, defined in U, is a set of
dual pairs:
where A(u) is designated as membership function or membership grade u in A. The membership function associates to each element u, of U,
a real number A(u), in the interval [0,1], which
represents the degree of truth that u belongs to A.
Using FST it is possible to evaluate the degree of
membership of some observed data, originating
either from an objective source or a subjective
source, to some high-level concept. Let us consider, for example, the evaluation of the delay
disturbance based on the continuous membership function presented in Figure . A low degree
of membership to the disturbance concept (i.e.,
values close to 0) means the delay is acceptable; while a high degree of membership (i.e.,
values close to 1) means the delay is unacceptable (Nunes & Cruz-Machado, 2012).
The human-like thinking process, i.e., approximate reasoning is well modeled using Fuzzy
Logic (FL), which is a multi-value logic concept
based on FST (Zadeh, 1996). Thus FL permits
to process incomplete data and provide approximate solutions to problems that cannot be
solved by traditional methods. It allows handling
the concept of partial truth, where the truth value
may range between completely true and completely false. Furthermore, when Linguistic Variables (LV) are used, these degrees may be managed by membership functions (Zadeh, 1975a;
* Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculty of Science and Technology, Portugal; imn@fct.unl.pt

143
Dr Isabel L. Nunes - Fuzzy systems to support industrial

engineering management
1975b; 1975c). A LV is a variable that admits as

values words or sentences of a natural language
(Figure 2), their terms can be modified using
linguistic hedges (modifiers) applied to primary
terms.
Figure 1: Fuzzy set delay disturbance

(Nunes & Cruz-Machado, 2012)
FST can be used in the development of, for instance, fuzzy expert systems or fuzzy decision
support systems. The following cases are examples of these types of systems that can support
industrial engineering managers activities.
FAST ERGO X (Figure 3) is a fuzzy expert system designed to identify, evaluate and control the
risk factors existing in a work situation, due to lack
of adequate ergonomics that can lead to the development of WMSD (Nunes, 2006; Nunes, 2009).
Fast Ergo X evaluates the risk factors based on
objective and subjective data and produce results regarding the degree of possibility of development of WMSD on the upper body joints
and about the main contributing risk factors. The
results (Conclusions) are presented both quantitatively (as membership degrees to inadequacy
fuzzy set, defined in the interval [0, 1]) and qualitatively (as terms of a linguistic variable intensity). For instance The possibility for development of a WMSD on the Right Wrist is extreme
(0.92). The Conclusions can be explained (Explanations) by presenting the computed risk factors inadequacy degrees that contributed to the
overall result, e.g. The number of Repetitions
performed by the Right Wrist is very high. The
system also presents Recommendations that
users can adopt to eliminate or at least to reduce
the risk factors present in the work situation.
Some of the recommendations are in the form of
good practices and graphical illustrations.
EXAMPLES OF FUZZY SYSTEMS

FAST ERGO X
Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD)
are diseases related and/or aggravated by work
that can affect the upper and the lower limbs as
well as the neck and lower back areas. WMSD
can be defined by impairments of bodily structures such as muscles, joints, tendons, ligaments,
nerves, bones and the localized blood circulation system, caused or aggravated primarily by work itself or
by the work environment (Nunes & Bush, 2012).
Figure 3: Activities performed on the analysis of a

work situation by FAST ERGO X (Nunes, 2009)
A Fuzzy Decision Support System to manage

supply chain disturbances
Figure 2: Linguistic variable inadequacy used

to evaluate protection inadequacy
(Nunes & Simes-Marques, 2012)
144
Supply Chains (SC) are subject to disturbances that can result from acts or events that are
originated inside of the SC (e.g., supplier failures,
equipment breakdown, employees absenteeism)
or may result from extrinsic events (e.g., social
turmoil, terrorist attacks, or acts of God such as
volcanic eruptions, hurricanes or earthquakes)
Dr Isabel L. Nunes - Fuzzy systems to support

industrial engineering management
(Nunes & Cruz-Machado, 2012). The Supply

Chain Disturbance Management Fuzzy Decision Support System (SCDM FDSS) developed
by (Nunes et al., 2011) was designed to assess
the SC and the organizations belonging to the
SC based on their performance considering the
following different scenarios, normal operation,
when a disturbance occurs and when mitigation
and/or contingency plans are implemented to
counter the disturbance. The aim of the SCDM
FDSS is to assist managers in their decision process related with the choice of the best operational policy (e.g., adoption of mitigation and/or
contingency plans) to counter disturbance effects
that can compromise SC performance.
The system combines the use of FST to model
the uncertainty associated with the disturbances
and their effects on the SC with the use of discrete-event simulations using the ARENA software (a commercial simulation tool) to study the
behavior of the SC subject to disturbances, and the
effects resulting from the implementation of mitigation or contingency plans. The block diagram of the
proposed SCDM FDSS is illustrated in Figure 4.
Figure 4: Relationship between SCDM FDSS and

ARENA (adapted from (Nunes et al., 2011)).
The Inference Engine offers the reasoning capability of the system. It performs the FDSS
analysis using a Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making model, and fuzzy data that characterizes the analyzed situation, using for instance
fuzzified Key Performance Indicators (KPI). The
inference process includes 7 steps (Nunes et al.,
2011):
1. Computing the KPI for each scenario and SC
entity for each simulation time period. The
KPI are obtained at the end of each ARENA
SC simulation;
2. Synthesizing the time discrete KPI into an
equivalent KPI for the relevant period considered (obtained through a mean function);
3. Fuzzifying the equivalent KPI into a fuzzy KPI
(FKPI). Fuzzy sets convert KPI in normalized
FKPI, i.e., fuzzy values in the interval [0, 1],
where a fuzzy value close to 0 means a bad
performance and a fuzzy value close to 1
means a good performance;
4. Computing of a fuzzy performance Category
Indicator (CI) for each scenario and SC entity using weighted aggregations of FKPI,
through the following expression:
where:
CIik is the fuzzy performance Category Indicator for ith category of KPI and for kth SC entity;
FKPIijk is the jth Fuzzy Key Performance Indicator of the ith category of KPI and the kth SC
entity;
wijk is the weight of jth Fuzzy Key Performance
Indicator of the ith category of KPI and the kth SC
entity.
5. Computing of a fuzzy Performance Index
(PI) for each scenario and SC entity using a
weighted aggregation of CI, using the following expression:
where:
PIk is the Performance Index of kth SC entity;
CIik is the fuzzy performance Category Indicator for ith category of KPI and for kth SC entity;
wijk is the weight of the ith category of KPI and
the kth SC entity.
6. Computing of a fuzzy Supply Chain Performance Index (SCPI) for each scenario using
a weighted aggregation of PI, using the following expression:
where:
SCPI is the Supply Chain Performance Index
of the SC for the current scenario;
PIk is the Performance Index of kth SC entity for
the current scenario;
wk is the weight of the kth SC entity.
7. Ranking alternatives. Scenario results for
each entity and for the SC are ranked based
on their PI and SCPI, respectively, in order to
identify the operational policy with more merit.
145
Dr Isabel L. Nunes - Fuzzy systems to support industrial

engineering management
Using the results produced by the system (PI

and SCPI) managers can: forecast the effects
of disturbances in SC entities and on a SC as
a whole; analyze the reduction of the negative
impacts caused by the disturbance when operational policies are implemented; and selecting the operational policy that makes the SC
more resilient. The best operational policy corresponds to the implementation that leads to the
highest PI/SCPI value.
The use of fuzzy modeling and simulation offers
several benefits, inter alia, promotes a proactive
SCDM, and improves the understanding of the
impact of applying different operational policies
meant to prevent or counter the effects of disturbances, allowing the selection of the ones that
are more effective and efficient.
CONCLUSIONS
FST has been used since the sixties as a way to
deal with complex, imprecise, uncertain and vague
data in different areas of industrial engineering.
In this paper the main characteristics and advantages of the use of FST were highlighted. Two
examples of fuzzy systems applied to support
decision-makers in the industrial engineering
context were very briefly presented (one in the
field of ergonomics and other in the field of supply chains management).
The objective was to raise awareness to the industrial engineers present in this conference to
the potential that FST offers as a modelling tool
to address complex phenomena that many industrial problems present.
REFERENCES
1) Kahraman, C. (2006). Preface. In: Fuzzy Applications in Industrial Engineering, C. Kahraman (ed). Springer, New York
2) Kahraman, C., Glbay, M. & Kabak, .
(2006). Applications of Fuzzy Sets in Industrial Engineering: A Topical Classification In:
Fuzzy Applications in Industrial Engineering,
C. Kahraman (ed). pp. 1-55. Springer, New
York
3) Nunes, I. L. (2006). ERGO_X - The Model of
a Fuzzy Expert System for Workstation Ergonomic Analysis. In: International Encyclopedia of Ergonomics and Human Factors, W.
Karwowski (ed). pp. 3114-3121. CRC Press,
ISBN 041530430X.
146
4) Nunes, I. L. (2009). FAST ERGO_X a tool

for ergonomic auditing and work-related musculoskeletal disorders prevention. WORK: A
Journal of Prevention, Assessment, & Rehabilitation, 34(2): pp. 133-148.
5) Nunes, I. L. (2010). Handling Human-Centered Systems Uncertainty Using Fuzzy Logics A Review. The Ergonomics Open Journal, 3: pp. 38-48.
6) Nunes, I. L. & Bush, P. M. (2012). Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders Assessment
and Prevention. In: Ergonomics - A Systems
Approach, I. L. Nunes (ed). pp. 1-30. InTech,
978-953-51-0601-2.
7) Nunes, I. L. & Cruz-Machado, V. (2012). A
fuzzy expert system model to deal with supply chain disturbances. Int. J. Decision Sciences, Risk and Management, 4(1/2): pp.
127151.
8) Nuens, I. L., Figueira, S. & Machado, V. C.
(2011). Evaluation of a Supply Chain Performance Using a Fuzzy Decision Support System. Proceedings of The IEEE International
Conference on Industrial Engineering and
Engineering Management - IEEM2011Singapore, 6-9 Dec
9) Nunes, I. L. & Simes-Marques, M. (2012).
Applications of Fuzzy Logic in Risk Assessment - The RA_X Case. In: Fuzzy Inference
System theory and applications, M. F.
Azeem (ed). pp. 22-40. InTech, 978-953-510525-1.
10) Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information
and Control, 8(3): pp. 338-353.
11) Zadeh, L. A. (1975a). The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning-part I. Information Sciences,
8(3): pp. 199-249.
12) Zadeh, L. A. (1975b). The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning-part II. Information Sciences,
8(4): pp. 301-357.
13) Zadeh, L. A. (1975c). The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning-part III. Information Sciences, 9(1): pp. 43-80.
14) Zadeh, L. A. (1996). Fuzzy Logic = Computing with words. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy
Systems, 4(2): pp. 103-111.
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2523
Paper number: 10(2012)3, 232, 147-152
A COMBINING GENETIC LEARNING ALGORITHM

AND RISK MATRIX MODEL USING IN OPTIMAL
PRODUCTION PROGRAM
Dr Mirjana Misita
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Belgrade, Serbia
Dr Galal Senussia *
Omar El-Mohktar University, Industrial Engineering Department, El-Baitha, Libya
MSc Marija Milovanovi
One of the important issues for any enterprises is the compromise optimal solution between inverse
of multi objective functions. The prediction of the production cost and/or profit per unit of a product
and deal with two obverse functions at same time can be extremely difficult, especially if there is a
lot of conflict information about production parameters. But the most important is how much risk of
this compromise solution. For this reason, the research intrduce and developed a strong and cabable model of genatic algorithim combinding with risk mamagement mtrix to increase the quality of
decisions as it is based on quantitive indicators, not on qualititive evaluation. Research results show
that integration of genetic algorithim and risk mamagement matrix model has strong significant in the
decision making where it power and time to make the right decesion and improve the quality of the
decision making as well.
Key words: Multi-objective function, Genetic Algorithim, Risk Management, Optimum Production
Program, Matrix, Costs
INTRODUCTION
The analysis of the production program of enterprises is an important and complex segment of
managing the enterprise, considering the fact that
it influences all elements or resources, such as
planning of the material, human resources, machinery resources, research and development,
marketing etc. All of these resources influence in
multi-criteria optimization of production program.
To reduce and improve the decesion making quality, it is important and necessary to evaluate them
to minimize the risk of operating losses.
In investigations carried out to date the production program optimization was based on multicriteria approach using linear functions [01, 09].
Using nonlinear functions in multi-objective optimization enables the application of genetic algorithms and is a step forward in the analysis of
the product optimal quantities to maximize production resources utilization [06, 10, 07]. On the
other hand, economic calculation of the product
cost price is a complex procedure, so that the
analysis of optimal production program most
commonly employed direct costs to determine

the cost price and to define the cost function.
However, cost functions based only on product
variable costs cannot provide real optimal product quantities but are more suitable for ranking
products that should be given priority in manufacturing. Introducing overhead costs in the function of cost price is a complex calculation procedure most often difficult to understand by the
user in a concrete enterprise, considering that it
is not easy to classify individual expenses. It is
thought that in metalworking companies, roughly
assessing, direct costs account for about 60%
of total unit costs, while the share of overhead
costs is 40% [03].
In business of enterprises, there are several categories of risk: risk of equipment failure (estimated in relation to human safety, to evironment, to
business losses, ect.), risk management as a security measure, finacial risk assessment in cases
of loan approval, quality management risk, ect.
Generally, Enterprise Risk Management is relatively new concept, Fraser and Simskins [05] distinguish following risk categories: Shareholder
* Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Kraljice Marije 16, 11000 Belgrade; mmisita@mas.bg.ac.rs

147
Dr Mirjana Misita - A combining genetic learning algorithm and risk

matrix model using in optimal production program
value risk, Financial reporting risk, Governance

risk, Customer and market risk, Operations risk,
Innovation risk, Brand risk, Partnering risk, Communications risk.
Risk management consisit of strategic risk, operational risk, financial risk and risk acceptance.
Strategic risk deal with competition, market position and economic conditions. Operational risk
Concerned with the daily operations, precisely,

to the consequences of daily decisions made in
the company. The financial risks are related to
relations with banks and stockholders, etc. The
types of risk and process steps itroduced by Risk
Management Committee 2003 [11].
Table 1: Enterprise Risk Management [8]

ERM Framework
Process steps
Type of risk
Hazard
Financial
Operational Strategic
Establish Context
Identify risk
Analyze / quantify risks
Integrate risk
Assess / Prioritize Risks
Treat / Exploit Risks
Monitor & Review
Figure 1: Risk Impact/Probability Chart
The risk is defined as product of probability and

consequence of certain events, which can be expressed in formula:
R = P*Q
P - Probability a particular event.
Q Consequences of particular event.
For any enterprises, there are external and internal of n-sources of risk. The total risk will represented by high-risk, medium-risk and low-risk
sources of operating losses.
148
The based approach of applying risk are risk

identification - what can affect the implementation of production program, risk analysis - defining the probability of occurrence of that, and risk
assessment - determining the consequences,
expressed in the form of operating losses.The
most low-risk sources of operating losses refer
to good quality decision. Figure 2 shows the map
for identifying Business risks.
Glover at all [9] states that the most real life optimization and scheduling problems are too complex to be solved completely and that the complexity of real life problems often exceeds the

ability of classic methods. Miettinen [08] considered that a key challenge in the real-life design
is to simultaneously optimize different objectives
through taking into account different criteria low
cost, manufacturability, long life and good performance, which cannot be satisfied at the same time.
Profit maximization is the main objective of business enterprises and as such the subject of numerous investigations. Profit is defined as the
difference between the total revenue generated
by selling products on the market and the overall
costs, i.e.:
P = TR TC
Where:
P Total profit
TR Total revenue
TC Total cost
When analyzing the possibilities of profit maximization, it is important to consider the fluctuation of the TR and the TC. The TR depends on
supply and market demands for particular types
of goods, while the TC depends on different
constraints faced by the company, such as the
mechanical facilities, number and structure of
employees, possibility of providing necessary
specific materials for the manufacturing process implementation, delivery etc. For the company, to be competitive on the market means to
produce a product at an appropriate price and
quantity with the use of capital and labor in the
appropriate volume and costs. Therefore, profit
maximization refers to the optimization of variable parameters in the observed model, with
given production constraints.
Where:
P Profit
Q Quantity of product
Wpi Selling price of the ith product
Wvi Variable cost of the ith product
Tc Constant cost
Figure 2: Graphic representation of profit

maximization
In real enterprises operating conditions the functions of the TR and the TC are nonlinear and to determine them two different approaches must be applied.
The TR function consists of the sum of variable and fixed costs, therefore, the sum of linear mathematical form by applying the Lagrange
interpolation polynomial based on the values of
variable costs from the previous period.
It is possible to determine the nonlinear function
of fixed costs in a Lagrange interpolation polynomial is, in our case, a function of production quantity P (Q) with (n-1) level if we have n data points
on the value of costs from the previous period.
Where:
In real life, the functions of dependence of production quantity and the TR and the TC are
nonlinear. The maximum profit is the maximum
difference between the total profit curve and the
total cost curve, as represented in the Figure 3.
149

METHODOLOGY
Methodological steps in developing model for risk management integration methodology and GA is
shown on Figure 3.
Figure 3: Steps in developing model for risk management integration methodology and GA
CASE STUDY
In the company engaged in manufacturing precision measuring instruments, we have analyzed
the available data and formed nonlinear functions
of the TR and the TC for the three products:
a) Clocks
Revenue function:
150
Cost function:
b) Water meter
Revenue function:
Cost function:

The functions of criteria for profit maximization

will have the form:
c) Gas meter
Revenue function:
Cost function:
Table 2: Evaluation of risk sources and determination of trend

Risk Source
Risk rating
1st Q. 2010
Risk
2nd Q. 2010
Risk
3rd Q. 2010
Operation cost.
Low
Medium
Medium
Labor cost
Low
Medium
Medium
Lubricant cost
Raw martial cost
Low
Low
Low
Medium
High
High
Fixed cost
Medium
Medium
Medium
capital availability
Medium
Medium
Medium
business operations
supply chain management
Medium
Medium
Medium
information technology
Medium
High
High
planning
Medium
Medium
High
reporting
Low
Medium
Medium
Respectively:
After getting the optimum solution, the second

step is Identify and analysis of risk sources for
the observed optimum product program. In our
case, we have focused on the internal resources
only. Identification, evaluations, and determination of trend are shown in the table 2.
Constraints:
If we consider the production capacity as a key
constraint in the production quantity of some
products, temporarily ignoring the structure of
demand for mentioned products on the market,
the restrictions are:
***Employees and raw material in the observed

company are not of limiting character.
The Pareto front and values of the functions f1
and Figure 1 are shown in Figure 4.
From the Pareto front diagram, it is evident that
optimum solution for production quantity and
profit maximization under given constraints is a
set [2312; 219; 944], where the maximum profit
is 5,950,340 RSD calculated as max (f1-f2).
Figure 4: The Pareto front of optimum solution
This figure 5 shows a two-dimension risk map.

The vertical axis represents loss likelihood and
the horizontal axis represents loss impact. The
four quarter panels stand for different combinations of likelihood and impact.
151

REFERENCES
Figure 5: A Two-Dimensional Risk Map
Risk matrix indicates a small number of highrisky, a small number of low-risk risk sources, but
the largest number risk sources with medium probability and consequences for business losses, namely:
Over all research results indicate that at these

restrict conditions of production, there is comparatively high risk of production losses. Therefore, it is necessary to resolve our problem to
find another optimal solution and repeat analysis
until achieved an optimal production program.
CONCLUSIONS
A strong and cabable model of genatic algorithim
combinding with risk mamagement mtrix is intrduced and developed to get optimal production
program and increase the quality of decisions.
Applying genatic algorithm as a technique deals
with huge conflect constrains to create one or altrenative optimal solusions. On ther hand, applying risk mamagement mtrix for choice of optimal
production program reduces the risk of operating
losses and affects the efficiency of management.
Furthermore, qualitative aspects that are defined
trough risk sources and by its identification and
evaluation, more realistic production program
evaluation can be taking into account. Integrated
both of them, genetic algorithim and risk mamagement mtrix guide to optimal production program.
1) C. McNair: Defining and Shaping the Future of

Cost Management, Journal of Cost Management,
Vol. 14, No. 5, 2000, pp. 28-32, ISSN 1092-8057.
2) Curovi, D., Vasi, B., Popovi, V., Curovi, N.:
Ekspertsko planiranje proizvodnje, (2008) Journal of Applied Engineering Science (Istraivanja
i projektovanja u privredi), no. 20, p.49-57
3) Eckart, Z., Evolutionary Algorithms for Multiobjective Optimization: Methods and Applications. PhD thesis, Swiss Federal Institute
of Technology (ETH), Zurich, Switzerland,
November 1999.
4) Glover F., Kelly J.P., Laguna M., New Advances for
Wedding Optimization and Simulation, Proceedings
of the 1999 Winter Simulation Conference, 1999.
5) J. Fraser, B.J. Simskins: Enterprise risk management: Todays Leading Research and Best Practices for Tomorrows Executives, John WIley &
Sons, ISBN 978-0-470-49908-5, USA, 2010.
6) J. Sanchis, et al.:A new perspective on multiobjective optimization by enhanced normalized normal constraint method, Structural
and Multidisciplinary Optimization, 2008, Vol.
36, No. 5, pp. 537546, ISSN 1615-1488.
7) L. Chi-Ming, G.Mitsuo: An Effective DecisionBased Genetic Algorithm Approach to Multiobjective Portfolio Optimization Problem,
Applied Mathematical Sciences, 2007, Vol.
1, No. 5, pp. 201 210, ISSN 0066-5452.
8) Miettinen, K., Nonlinear multi-objective optimization. Springer, 1999.
9) N. Fafandjel, A. Zamarin, M. Hadjina: Shipyard production cost structure optimization
model related to product type, International
Journal of Production Reasearch, 2010, Vol.
48, No. 5, pp. 1479-1491, ISSN 0020-7543.
10) S. Utyuzhnikov, P. Fantini, M. Guenov: A
method for generating a well- distributed
Pareto set in nonlinear multi-objective optimization, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 2009, Vol. 223, No. 2, pp.
820841, ISSN 0377-0427.
11) The CAS Enterprise Risk Management
Committee: Overview of Enterprise Risk,
Management,Casualty Actuarial Society Forum, 2003, Pages 99-164, ISSN 1046-6487
152
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2514
Paper number: 10(2012)3, 233, 153-160
INVESTIGATIONS OF TIME AND ECONOMIC

DIMENSIONS OF THE COMPLEX PRODUCT
PRODUCTION CYCLE
Jelena Jovanovi *
Technical College of Applied Studies, aak, Serbia
Dr Dragan Milanovi
Dr Mili Radovi
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia
Radisav uki
Office of the Manufacturing and Engineering Management, Sloboda Co. aak, Serbia
The features of contemporary production process of top organization and management methods
are grounded on the principles of economies of times and the principles of lean production, a new
philosophy of production. Production should be organized according to the push-pull principle, with
minimum inventories, manufacturing only what is really necessary, neither too early, nor too late.
The paper presents the design procedure and results of investigations on the production cycle of a
complex product included in the production program of Sloboda aak Co.
Key words: Complex product, Production cycle, Designing, Coefficient of running time, Current assets
INTRODUCTION
The achievement of Business and Production
System (BPS) is largely dependent of adjusting
production to the conditions of demand and application of innovative solutions in the sphere of
technology, organization and management. To
make the price competitive, the costs of business operations should be reduced, the observed losses should be eliminated or reduced
to acceptable levels and resources should be
engaged accordingly by using the corresponding
management methods. Current assets should
be engaged to the maximum in the production
process, which is determined by the size of the
production series, length of production cycle
(PC) time, moment and manner of their engagement. The time and economic dimensions of
PC should be mastered, so that the system responds promptly, in real time, no matter whether
the orders are small-scale, large-scale, standard
or special. Investigations of PCs implies a set of
activities that have to define optimum production
series, calculations for the amount of components required, cycle design, production preparation and launching, management of production
activities, with current assets engagement and
the analysis and calculations of the coefficient of

material running time.
OPTIMUM PRODUCTION SERIES
To manufacture only what can be sold, to consolidate all requirements in a single spot, to enable
flexible and economic production in smaller-scale
series; all this represents the first and foremost
principle of contemporary production. So, a
problem is posed of inventing the relations that
will enable the calculations of optimal production
series, with minimizing total business operating
costs. This problem comes to the fore particularly in series production performed in Sloboda
Co. Having in mind that the behavior of costs in
series production depends on the volume of production (linear, non-linear, independent), the size
of production series should be calculated in such
a way that the opposite orientation of the nature
of costs is optimally harmonized. This means
that the optimum series size (q0) is characterized
by minimal costs per unit of product. Respecting
mentioned constraints, the analytical expression
for calculations is defined by the relation (1):
* Tenical college of Applied Studies, 32000 aak, Serbia; jelena.jovanovic@live.com

(1)
153
Jelena Jovanovi - Investigations of time and economic dimensions

of the complex product production cycle
where:
Cn are total fixed costs required to accomplish the
order (Q), c1 are variable costs per unit of product
in unit of time (day), T is period of time required
to accomplish the delivery, N is the number of
optimumlaunched series. On the grounds of data
from the Companys annual balance sheet, for the
year 2011., corresponding technical documentation
and relation (1), the optimum size of the production
series was calculated, amounting to 3600 pieces.
CALCULATIONS OF THE QUANTITY

OF COMPONENTS
The plan of components is the most significant
production operational plan. Its creation requires:
calculations of optimum production series, drawing of products hierarchical structure graph (Figure 1), establishment of inventories in unfinished
production (warehouses, work tasks), definition of
planned technological waste and inventories at the
end of the year for the continuity in the production.
Figure 1: Graph of products hierarchical structure
Planned quantities of components (qijk) can be

calculated using the following formulas:
made for the quantity of components required for

further analysis (Table 2).
PRODUCTION CYCLE DESIGN
where: xijk is the component designation, qijk

are planned quantities of components, ijk is the
planned waste, qijkM are quantities of components
in a warehouse, qijkRN are quantities of components in launched work tasks, k is the coefficient
that takes into account work task accomplishment level (per cent), mi is the quantity of the i-th
component in a final article, ni is the quantity of
the i-th component in the first superior level of a
hierarchical scheme. For the optimum quantity of
3600 pieces of a complex product, using the corresponding formulas (2) (5), calculations were
154
The technological (ideal) PC comprises the time

required to perform all operations (ti) according
to the technological procedure on all products of
the optimum series (q0). The workpiece movement plays important role in calculating the technological cycle, where movement procedures can
be consecutive (6), parallel (7) and combined (8,
9). Combined movements are most commonly
encountered in a series production.
The complexity of a product imposes multi-level

approach to the analysis and design of PCs, beJournal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)3, 233

cause production interferes with the assembly of

units, sub-units and final article, so that parallel PC proceeding is possible by the stages of
manufacturing and assembly. Using above presented considerations, calculations of the PC
length for each operation will be made according
to formula (10), in compliance with the adopted
work organization, while PC for components will
be calculated based on a combined workpiece
movement applying the relations (11) and (12).
The designed PC length of a complex product

can be determined using a network diagram, a
gantogram (Figures 3 and 4) or calculations to
define the longest path in a complex-productstructure graph (Figure 1) in compliance with
relation (13):
(13)
where: T(pf)i is PC length of the i-th operation of
the observed production stage by days, pf is the
designation of the production stage (component),
qpf is planned quantity pf, qSi is the capacity in a
shift of the i-th operation, Sni is the number of
work shifts during the day on the i-th operation,
rmi is the number of workplaces where production of the i-th operation is organized, pni is norm
accomplishment on the i-th operation, Tpf is the
designed PC length pf, T(pf)1 is the designed
PC length of the first operation of the observed
pf, nopf is the number of operations pf (from the
technological procedure), p is the designation of
the operation that satisfies the condition: Tp > Tp-1,
Tcp is the designed PC length, T (i-j) is the PC
length of production stages found on the (i-j)-th
path of a complex-product structure (i is the designation of the graph initial node, j is the designation of the graph terminal node), l is the total number
of paths in a graph that connect the initial with the
terminal nodes, is average backup time between
operations (compensation for all losses in PC).
PRODUCTION CYCLE ANALYSIS AND

CALCULATIONS OF THE COEFFICIENT
OF RUNNING TIME
Unlike the technological (Tci) and designed PC
(Tcopt) length, the actual (Tcs) length, apart from
production (technological) time, includes PC
non-production time and disruptions that cause
losses Gc (Figure 2). In most cases PC disruptions are the result of inconsistency of production
processes, bottlenecks in production, shortage
of material, tools and energy, poor organization
and handling of workplaces, stoppages due to
machine breakdown, tool failure and lack of discipline in workers.
Figure 2: Production cycle duration
On the grounds of designed operation cycles

(Tcp) and components involved in a complex product, production documentation was
launched. The designed but also subsequently
accomplished dates of the initiation and termination of production are recorded in a production date chart, a constituent part of work tasks.
These data were used to determine the actual
PC lengths (Tcs) (Tab. 1) and the coefficients of
material running time (Kp) were calculated applying the relation (14).
The coefficient of running time indicates how

much the actual PC length is longer than the
designed one. Table 1 shows the designed and
actual PC lengths of all production stages of the
analyzed complex product, losses in the cycle
and corresponding values of the running time
coefficient. On the grounds of the PC designed,
Tcp = 96 days, and actual, Tcs = 122 days, length,
the running time coefficient of a complex product
Kp = 1.27 was established.
155

Table 1: PC lengths (Tcp and Tcs), losses in the cycle and coefficient of material running time
Tcp, Kp, Tcs
Designd PC
lenght Tcp (days)
Actual PC lenghts
Tcs (days)
Losses in the
cycle (%)
Coeficient
of running time Kp
5=(4-3)/4
6=4/3
E1
22
1.29
E2
14
19
26
1.36
E3
14
18
22
1.29
E4
12
17
29
1.42
E5
14
20
30
1.43
E6
40
51
22
1.28
E7
13
17
24
1.31
E8
14
19
26
1.36
P1
17
20
15
1.18
P2
16
20
20
1.25
SK1
12
14
14
1.17
SK2
24
30
20
1.25
19
21
10
1.11
Production stage
1
Elements
sub-assemblies
assemblies
final assembly
Note: Tcs value was established on the grounds of production monitoring and analysis of production and plan documentation
Figure 3: Gantt diagram The latest beginning
156

Figure 4: Gantt diagram the earliest beginning
CURRENT ASSETS ENGAGEMENT

The basic purpose of current assets is to finance the production process, i.e., to settle current obligations, to supply the material and to
pay salaries. Unlike fixed assets partially spent
in the production process, current assets are a
part of business assets that are entirely spent in
the production process and their overall value is
transferred onto the product. Current assets can
be engaged in the production process in a smaller- or larger-scale, depending on the production
series size, time period, moment and manner of
engagement. Business operating costs (Tp) can
be calculated using the formula (15):
Current assets engaged prior to the beginning of

production (point P, Fig. 5) amount to 17 093 264
dinars, relation (18):
Current assets engagement depending on the

actual PC length will be calculated using the
gantograms (Figures 3 and 4) and relation (19).
(15)
Other costs (To) are divided into variable and
constant, relation (16):
(16)
Results are presented in Tab. 3, correlation coefficient and regression curves are defined by relations (20) and (21), and diagrams of current assets engagement are given in Figures 5 and 6.
Using previous formula, one can derive the formula for calculating the value of norm-hours for
other variable costs (VN)ov:
157
158
S1
S2
P1
P2
E1
E2
K1
E3
E4
K2
K3
E5
K4
E6
K5
E7
E8
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
1.
Mark
0.05
0.05
TOTAL:
28
0.2
0.2
0.16
0.04
mi
ni
Production stage
Ordianl
number
76
1900
9042
2587
536
1553
1608
320
1850
536
3014
1553
2587
qi(3)
(piece)
126
8116
15090
41953
16046
229
3091
2112
5004
6287
2571
6335
526
8023
2112
5030
2571
3091
8.5035
10.5
0.1125
0.061
0.051
0.1375
0.125
0.275
0.45
0.425
0.475
0.3375
0.375
ti
qi(4)
(hourly
(piece) rates/ piece)
16920.41
1323
913.05
2559.133
1145
255.204
864.4625
791.875
144.65
3610.35
897.6
2389.25
867.7125
1159.125
8=6*7
qi(4)*ti
(hourly
rates)
4070
1967.4
117
42
175.4
25.5
6.6
94
15.75
200
180
276
60
320
Wmi (din/
piece)
1701
2100
22.5
12.2
1000
10.2
27.5
25
55
90
85
95
67.5
75
10
Wri
(din/
piece)
111
136.5
1.4625
0.793
65
0.663
1.7875
1.625
3.575
5.85
5.525
6.175
4.3875
4.875
11=7*VN
Woi=ti*(VN)ov
2747378
149522.4
222300
151152
5040
370000
96480
831864
93180
827840
12=5*9
Tmi (din)
15068.625
14=6*11
Tovi (din)
0.000
10294.375
1880.450
46934.550
11668.800
31060.250
0.000
14885.000
0.000
0.000
3317.625
3384082
264600
182610
219965
17199.000
11869.650
0.000
511826.6 33268.729
229000
51040.8
172892.5 11238.013
158375
28930
722070
179520
477850
173542.5 11280.263
231825
13=6*10
Tri (din)
Table 2: Parameters for determining total and variable business operating costs
6351426
431321.40
416779.65
0.00
545095.33
0.00
243885.00
0.00
0.00
54358.45
184130.51
0.00
319821.38
35850.45
1139004.55
287668.80
1340774.25
278002.76
1074733.63
15=12+13+14
Tvi din) (din)


Table 3: Dynamics and amount of current assets engagement in the latest and earliest beginning
The latest beginning
Or. nu.
The latest beginning

Day
Current assets
(Os)
Cumulative
Os
Current assets
(Os)
Cumulative
Os
1.
17093264.4
17093264.4
17621278.8
17621278.8
2.
15
160322.2
17253586.5
1102684.4
18723963.2
3.
31
171010.3
17424596.8
607533.2
19331496.4
4.
38
160176.8
17584773.6
234913.1
19566409.5
5.
49
251706.3
17836479.9
262787.5
19829196.9
6.
51
439421.3
18275901.2
417779.5
20246976.5
7.
60
757835.2
19033736.4
359253.7
20606230.1
8.
71
1787147.2
20820883.6
1254816.5
21861046.6
9.
82
538927.4
2135981.0
186600.4
22047647.1
10.
92
574364.0
21934175.0
169636.8
22217283.8
11.
101
1263621.9
23197796.9
980513.1
2319796.9
12.
111
117568.4
23315365.3
117568.4
23315365.3
13.
122
129325.2
23444690.5
129325.2
23444690.5
Figure 5: Diagram of current assets engagement (Os) as a function of time (Tcs),

the latest beginning
Figure 6: Diagram of current assets engagement (Os) as a function of time (Tcs),

the earliest beginning
159

CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
Respecting technical, technological, production

and plan documentation and graph theory the
paper describes the hierarchical structure of a
complex product (Fig. 1). The oriented graph
represents a basis for applying the algorithm that
synthesizes the processes of optimization, planning, designing and analysis of PC of a complex
product and components it is made up of. The
systems for weaponry and military equipment
production have a specific position and role in the
economic environment of the Republic of Serbia.
Threats to survival, uncertain trends of changes
in the environment, a host of constraints, globalization of business operations and impact of diverse markets impose to Sloboda Cacak Co.
two key dimensions of the strategy: forecasting
and risking. Viewed within this context, the principle of economies of times in the manufacturing domain requires thorough investigation and
mastering of time and economic dimensions of
PCs. The coefficient of time of a complex product is at the satisfactory level (1.27) having in
mind the designed and actual PC length (96 and
122 days). Taking into account the scale of uncompleted production, this coefficient value was
expected to be lower. The diagrams of assets
engagement for two diametrically opposed manners of production organization (Figs 3 and 4)
are similar, which indicates a great value of inventories in unfinished production process (point
P, Figure 5) amounting to 73%.
1) Curovi, D., Vasi, B., Popovi, V., Curovi, N.:

Ekspertsko planiranje proizvodnje, (2008) Journal of Applied Engineering Science (Istraivanja
i projektovanja u privredi), no. 20, p.49-57
2) Djukic R., Milanovic D., Klarin M., Jovanovic
J., Determinants of the dynamic managing of
the BPS, Tehnika i praksa, No 1, VSTSS Cacak, Cacak, 2010.
3) Eckert C., Clarkson P., Planning development processes for complex products, Research in Engineering Design, Vol. 21(3),
p153-171, 2010.
4) Jovanovic J., Milanovic D. D., Djukic R. et al.,
Analysis of the production cycle and the dynamics of the use of working capital, Tehnika
i praksa, No 6, VSTSS Cacak, Cacak, 2011.
5) Uskokovi, P.: Planiranje - jedna od osnovnih
aktivnosti menadmenta, (2009) Journal of
Applied Engineering Science (Istraivanja i
projektovanja za privredu), no. 8, p. 33-41
160

doi:10.5937/jaes10-2513
Paper number: 10(2012)3, 234, 161-165
TOWARDS A DIGITAL FACTORY - RESEARCH IN

THE WORLD AND OUR COUNTRY
Dr Vidosav Majstorovi *
This paper presents an analysis and synthesis of research carried out in the field of digital factory and digital manufacturing. The aim was to present different approaches and concepts, digital
manufacturing and digital factory, for the purpose of establishing a common research approach. The
engineering model of manufacturing based on digital models of products, processes and resources
is the future of manufacturing engineering in this area, and are therefore subject to analysis in this
study particularly important. At the end are particularly given to future research directions in the field
of digital factory and of manufacturing.
Key words: Digital factory, Digital manufacturing, Manufacturing, Modeling, Factories
INTRODUCTION
Todays business structure is more complex and
dynamic than ever before. The market requires
rapid changes in the industry with new products,
which directly reflects on the work of the factory.
On the other hand, digitization and information
technology (IT) provide new, unimagined possibilities, engineers in the design and planning.
These two approaches have led to two concepts
that have since emerged: the digital factory and
digital manufacturing. They allow to improve the
engineering product development and create a
new era in business and manufacturing, where
the sustainability of one of the most important
factors of business [18]. Targets set in the digital
factory are: to improve the manufacturing technology, reduce the costs of planning, improving
the quality of manufacturing / products, and increase adaptability to new demands of customers and markets [12].
In the area of production, the words digital factory, digital manufacturing, product modeling,
etc., are now widely used. What do these concepts actually mean? The answer is not simple,
because the meaning of these terms depends
on the views of users, their perception, application, knowledge, and much more. This requires
very careful use of these terms. There are some
concepts and acronyms that are related to the
digital factory and digital manufacturing, which
are essential to highlight. This specifically includes the definition of the concept of virtual factories and virtual manufacturing [20], the same
types of problems encountered and the digital

factory and digital manufacturing. Definitions of
these concepts varies depending on the time of
research and researchers who appointed them.
The definition of virtual factory should be synonymous with the digital factory, a virtual manufacturing should be synonymous with digital manufacturing. Our research shows that we should
not distinguish between the concept of virtual
and digital factory / manufacturing in this area.
According to [14] there are some common characteristics in the research areas of digital / virtual
manufacturing, factories and enterprises. These
are, for example: (a) an integrated approach to
improve products, processes and technologies
(integrated digital model), (b) the application of
computer tools, such as modeling and simulation, planning and analysis of real technological
processes, and (c) framework for the application
of new technologies, including development of
new methods and systems.
BASICS OF THE DIGITAL FACTORY
AND DIGITAL MANUFACTURING
Basic digital factory
No universally accepted definition for the digital
factory, but can give some of them: (a) on the
digital factory make animated visualization and
simulation, which includes: advanced methods and processes in planning, integration of
software tools and a competent staff, (b) digital
factory a static model that includes geometric,
technical and logistics data, given as an image
object. Digital Factory contains digital informa
* Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Kraljice Marija 16, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia; vidosav.majstorovic@sbb.rs
161
Dr Vidosav Majstorovi - Towards a digital factory - research

in the world and our country
tion on the plant and its resources: location, media, logistics, simulation tools, and so on, [07]
(c) is a generic digital factory digitized model
of the factory, with its technological systems as
key model from which others derive models as
a mirror of the real manufacturing system. The
digital factory design information (and present),
evolving from the initial state of design, the final
state, passing through various stages of reconfiguration. Information on manufacturing equipment and its features, tools, clamping accessories, material handling devices, etc., were also
identified in the digital model. Therefore, we can
say that digital information platform of factories
manufacturing system in its lifetime, (d) digital
factory generic term for a wide network of digital
models, methods and tools, including simulation
and 3D visualization [17]. If we now go from the
foregoing definitions, one can derive common
features for the digital factory / manufacturing,
[05] as: interoperability, database / knowledge,
information capture and digital plant architecture.
Interoperability data, together with the portability,
expandability and scalability is the most important features of information models . To achieve
this, the models should be in a neutral format,
which provides that the models and explicit information for them, or the system is independent.
One way to achieve this is to use existing standards for information modeling [10]. Database /
knowledge is used to generate different models
of digital factories, which are associated IT tools
for modeling and performing various processes
in it. The most common approach is to develop
joint / unified data base for the digital factory,
which develops after defining the information architecture of the digital factory. The most common
option is the development of these models in a
neutral format, because the information model is
the core of the digital factory. In developing the
information model must also be taken into account the life cycle of information, their domain,
resources and processes that affect them. But
the truth is here to say that the single database is
not the only solution, and the second solution is
a distributed database, which reduces the problems that appear errors in it. But no matter which
solution is used, it is necessary to have a good
information architecture and IT tools for its support. Information capture and digital plant architecture - generally speaking, digital factory planning is not only digital, but should be a database
for her life. Therefore the main issue, as the its
162
structure and organization affects an enormous

amount of information that is generated and
used constantly. As noted above, the digital factory is mainly used for digital planning products,
processes and resources for manufacturing, and
therefore for each of the elements necessary information. But here it must be noted that all of
this information need not be in the digital oblku.
What does it depend. The answer is that it depends on what we mean by the definition of business system, factory, manufacturing system and
its operation [01]. Only when these things have
clearly defined, then we can define the scope of
information for our definition of a digital factory.
If we look at the digital factory as a technological
system, it is a product of its materialization rather
than design. This means that the digital product
model should not be included in a digital model
of factories. But on the other hand, on (digital
model of the product) must be compatible with
the digital model of factories, to make it possible
simulation of manufacturing. As a result, digital
factory should be configured in the resource and
process information. The process is a set of one
or more activities related to the work process
or work flow processes, the manufacturing of
products in the factory itself. This manufacturing
process is necessary and appropriate support:
tools, accessories, transportation, maintenance,
etc., because the factory can not function without
them. Models of support processes provide better knowledge of them and reduce the volume of
uncertain knowledge in the factory. Resources
in the digital factory include: human resources
(employees and their skills), physical resources
such as machinery and equipment (all operating
data on them) and information resources (management and administration of the factory). Processes and resources are defined in such a way
to organize an information model, but thats not
enough, when the plant operates on the basis
of models of manufacturing activities. Because
of this process and resource model should be
presented so that their information domain can
be modeled as an activity.
BASIC DIGITAL MANUFACTURING
Today there are real industrial plants, based on
the concept of digital factory. Also, these studies deal with the load by research institutions,
so the concept of digital manufacturing will be
considered from two angles. From the perspective of industrial applications [15], manufacturing

of digital computer includes support for the planning, engineering and 3D computer visualization. On the other hand in [19], the digital output
is defined as a methodology that uses depth IT
knowledge and technology. Profound knowledge
in this model is used in digital form. CIRP dictionary, defines manufacturing as follows: the
whole of interrelated economic, technological
and organizational measures, directly related to
the processing of materials, ie. all functions and
activities that directly contribute to the creation
of goods. It includes all activities and operations
relating to the product and its maintenance after manufacturing, and everything in between
[20]. In this case, the digital output of the digital
factory. This definition is used by all researchers, members of the CIRPs. For example, the
manufacturing model of the web-based multi
agent system is defined as a digital manufacturing
[07]. This concept promotes collaboration between
product development and manufacturing, but different plants, using a digital model of the product.
Another example [17] proposes a model of
STEP-NC manufacture, using a digital concept,
which includes: (a) vane-standardized data exchange and use, (b) web communication and
decision making, and (c) integration of the entire chain of manufacturing process. From the
above analysis we can conclude that the volume
of digital manufacturing can vary, depending on
the definition that we use. Generally speaking,
becomes the three most important elements that
determine what is a digital manufacturing: IT system and its application, the theoretical concept
of digital manufacturing - the scope of profound
knowledge is used as a digital manufacturing
methodologies, and using specific techniques
and methods, such as for example web-based
multi agent systems and the like [14, 17]. When
we talk about the basic characteristics necessary information in digital manufacturing, we can
say is: its digital format, multiple use and its independence of distance, time and place of use.
Another aspect of digital manufacturing of its
framework and the principles it uses. If we start
from the principle, first defining the model, indicating that the two approaches for this purpose
may be used. The first is - common denominator
for simplification and abstraction of something
that may not be realistic [15]. The second is - If
we look at an object B, which is building a model,
and we ask him about the object A, and from him
(facility B) to get an answer on the object A [13].
If this definition digital transfer of manufacturing,

it is a virtual stock manufacturing, and these actions are performed on models of manufacturing
systems and factories. Thus, the digital output
should be a mirror of actual manufacturing with
a few limited detail. Digital manufacturing for
example uses a digital information product, you
can verify the digital manufacturing through various aspects of the planning process. Thats why
we say that product information is extremely important in the context of various activities carried
out in the factory and theyd never could be performed without them. Each product should have
a digital model that can be used to simulate the
benefits of digital manufacturing at the factory
or for verification of different planning scenarios. All this means that the essential compatibility between digital product models and factory.
The purpose of the digital output is: (a) verification through simulation facilities for manufacturing process planning, tool path and sensors for
the inspection, (b) verification and performance
analysis of digital manufacturing with the simulation of flow, geometry or performance machine
tools. Forward the facts clearly define the scope
of digital manufacturing, related to all manufacturing activities from beginning to end development of a product, where the IT system only tool
to support digital manufacturing [06, 02].Digital
manufacturing is performed and the analysis and
simulation of digital factories, creating its model,
using some or all models of the product, so that
digital manufacturing includes resources and
processes of the factory. This means that digital
manufacturing is a way to verify the manufacturing of appropriate options for the type of product.
The analysis shows that today still perform specific research in the field of digital manufacturing / factory, with no uniform definitions for these
areas. For these reasons, all studies in this area of
work, you need to start from the definition of digital
manufacturing / factory which is used in this study.
OUR RESEARCH ACTIVITIES IN DIGITAL
MANUFACTURING
Serbian as National Technology Platforms related to the Manufuture ETP was created in
individual Member States and adopt the main
development goals identified in both Manufuture
a vision for 2020 and the current document [11,
08, 09]. This initiatives can also encourage the
emergence at regional levels of equivalent concepts promoting competitiveness by stimulation
163

between sciences, education and industry in

Serbia. Our national Manufuture initiatives, while
adopting different models of organisation, should
share the common Manufuture vision and aim to
promote widening acceptance of, and participation in, Manufuture by Serbian industry, by [11,
08, 09]: (a) alerting public opinion and politicians
to the challenges that Serbian manufacturing
faces, as well as to industrys critical role in delivering economic output, skilled employment and
sustainable growth, (b) aligning the interests of
the R&D community and technology providers in
strong and effective cooperation networks that
develop and source knowledge and technology,
and (c) identifying and strengthening the highly
competitive local networks of large companies,
SME suppliers, technological partners, consultants and R&D contractors.
The most important contributions of these Serbian initiatives should be in: (i) build a clear link
to and incorporate a wide SME participation, as
especially smaller SMEs can harder participate
on European levels of platforms than international large companies, (ii) horizontal integration,
coordination and synchronisation of R&D efforts
in Serbia, (iii) vertical application of competitive
technologies, products, methods and processes
in enterprises (both OEMs and SMEs) including multidisciplinary networks coordinating R&D
activities in new industrial sectors such as medical technologies, telematics, nanotechnologies
and mechatronics in EU and Serbia. Manufuture
will promote successful Europe-wide implementation of solutions at various levels facilitating the
structuring of effort and funding, and encouraging
pan-European convergence between regional
centres of industrial competitiveness [11, 08, 09].
Over the next decade, the integration of Serbia
in EU will have a significant influence on European manufacturing of products for global markets.
In a strategy of integration and cohesion, they
could become world-class suppliers to OEMs
[11, 08, 09]. This can be seen as an EU/Serbia
strategy of transition, to maintain strong national/
regional sectors in the interim period, opening a
competition between EU members in all areas,
even in R&D as a key factor to promote excellence and fostering the European manufacturing
progresses connected to the high-added-value
industrial paradigm [10, 11, 08, 09]. Serbian as
national initiatives will be particularly important in
the new MS, such as Serbia. After many years of
164
socialist regulation, their move towards market

economy in R&D, as in other spheres is a major mental, organisational, technical and financial
challenge.
CONCLUSIONS
Starting from the facts stated in the text, according to some directions for research in the field
of digital factories, such as: (a) establishing a
single definition, scope and structure of the digital factory, (b) decomposition of the information
structure of digital factories and the use of ISO
10303 standards, (c) explore suitable IT architecture that will be used for the development, transfer and use different models of digital products,
processes and resources, and (d) development
of an ontological concept for linking models and
their structure in a digital factory. Our research
is now related to the last aspect of the systemic
approach to the development of digital manufacturing and digital factory [10, 11, 08, 09].
Note: This article is part of the research carried
out within the Project TR 35 022, supported by
the Ministry of Education and Science.
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165
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2507
Paper number: 10(2012)3, 235, 167-173
TIME TO CHOOSE BETWEEN SCIENTIFIC AND

ADMINISTRATIVE APPROACH TO RELIABILITY
Dr Jezdimir Kneevi *
MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, United Kingdom
If you watch a glacier from a distance, and see the big rocks fallings into the sea, and the way the
ice moves, and so forth, it is not really essential to remember that it is made out of little hexagonal
ice crystals. Yet if understood well enough the motion of the glacier is in fact a consequence of the
character of the hexagonal ice crystals. But it takes quite a while to understand all the behaviour of
the glacier (in fact nobody knows enough about ice yet, no matter how much theyve studied crystal). However, the hope is that if we do understand the ice crystal we shall ultimately understand the
glacier.
R. Feynman, The Character of Physical Law
INTRODUCTION
Reliability Theory, since its beginning in 1950s,
has been based on mathematical theorem rather then on scientific theories. Massive attempts
where made to further applications of the existing
mathematical and statistical methods and analysis without attempts for understanding failure
mechanics. Then, in 1980s, practicing reliability
engineers and analysts, who have neither ability
to understand the mathematics, turned to what
they have had, which is enormous practical experience of the observed failure modes of existing
systems. Thus, a large number of practical reliability methods have been developed and used,
all of which were based on the Failure Mode,
Effect and Criticality Analysis, FMECA, but still
without any attempt to understand and address
physical mechanisms that generate failures. Consequently, during the last 50 years the Reliability
Theory made very little progress, a part from a
few exceptions (one should put some references
here), in the direction of becoming the science,
in terms of making accurate predictions that
could be confirmed with practical observations.
The reason is very simple; neither statistics,
which does not study causes of statistical behaviour, nor engineers whose applied methods were focused on meeting contractual and
legal requirements, by doing FMECA to prove
Mean Time Between Failures, MTBF, were able
to provide a fertile ground for the development of
reliability.
To illustrate the above statement the fundamental expression for reliability will be used. It is generally accepted that reliability is the probability
that a system will operate without failure during
a stated period of time, which is mathematically
represented by the following expression:
(1)
where: TTF is a random variable known as the
Time To Failure and R(t) is the reliability function.
However, today there are two distinguished approaches to calculation of the probability defined
by the above equation. They are:
Approach 1, where calculation of the probability of a successful operation with internal of time
from 0 to t is based on the following expression:
(2)
where nfm is a total number of competing failure
mechanisms that can generate a failure event. It
is necessary to stress that a probability distributions that define individual failure mechanisms
are exclusively determined by the physical processes that generate them, like fracture, single
event upset, electrostatic discharge, fatigue,
creep, wear, radiation, hot electron, embrittlement, depolymerisation, charge trapping in oxides, glass transition and many others.
Approach 2, well established within western defence aerospace, oil and other industries, for all
reliability predictions, risk and safety as
* MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury park, Exeter, United Kingdom; jk@mirceakademy.com
167
Dr Jezdimir Kneevi - Time to choose between scientific and administrative

approach to reliabillity
sessments, conformances, contracting and similar activities, where the probability of operation
without failure during a given interval of time t is
defined by the following expression:
(3)
where: is the failure rate of each failure mechanisms that can generate a failure even.
Both expressions for reliability function clearly
demonstrate that the system reliability follows
the laws of probability. However, the expression 2 allows the probability laws to be driven by
physical processes and mechanisms that take
place in the system or result from the interaction of a system with natural and human environment, whereas the expression 3 has one, and
only one, predetermined future, irrespective of
physical properties of systems, their operational
conditions, maintenance policies and support
strategies. In fact the second approach completely ignores existence of corrosion, fatigue,
creep and many others, scientifically observed
and well understood mechanisms, which have
time-dependent failure mechanisms. To make
the distinction between these two approaches to
reliability the former will be called the scientific
approach and the latter the administrative approach.
Consequently, the main objective of this paper is
to argue that the scientific approach to reliability
is the only way forward for all members of the
reliability community who wish to make accurate
predictions that will be confirmed during the operational processes of the future systems. Only
then, accurate and meaningful reliability predictions become possible, which is imperative for
the development of Risk-Based Technology and
its successful applications.
SCIENTIFIC APPROACH TO RELIABILITY
Mathematically, reliability is defined as a probability that a system will maintain a required function during a stated period of time (see equations
1, 2 and 3). However, as a probability cannot
be seen or measured directly, engineers and
managers, have fundamental difficulty in understanding and interpreting statistical and probability functions associated with their systems. This
is because physical characteristics of a system
like the weight, temperature, volume and similar
168
have a clear and measurable meaning. However, the concepts of probability, and hence reliability, is an abstract property of a system that
obtains a physical meaning only when behaviour of a large sample of systems is considered.
Hence, understanding of reliability is reduced to
the scientific observation and analysis of system
failures, which are observable and measurable
physical phenomena.
According to the Mirce Mechanics, system failures are events that cause transition of a system
from positive to negative functionability state [1]
due to some of the following reasons, or combinations of them:
a) Built-in design errors (incorrect selection of
materials, stresses shapes, etc)
b) Production problems (human errors, material
and process deficiencies)
c) Irreversible changes in the condition of
components with time due to wear, fatigue,
creep, corrosion, and similar degradation
processes
d) Imposition of external overstress mechanisms resulting from collisions, harsh landings, extreme weather conditions, etc
e) Human errors in execution of maintenance
tasks
f) Human errors in execution of in-service support tasks
At the MIRCE Akademy a large number of failure
events and associated phenomena have been
observed and analysed to understand the physical
mechanisms that generate occurrences of failures.
Consequently, systematic studies are applied to
understand phenomena that cause thermal aging, thermal buckling, photo-chemical degradation, reduction in dielectric strength, evaporation,
metal fatigue, actinic degradation, photo-oxidation, swelling/ shrinking, degradation of optical
qualities, fogging, photochemical decomposition of paint, blistering, warping, thermal stress,
breakdown of lubrication film, increased structural loads, shift in the centre of gravity, jammed
control surfaces, attenuation of energy, clutter
echoes, blocking of air intakes, decreased lift
and increased drag, unequal loading, removal
of coating protection, pitting, roughening of the
surface, acid reactions, leakage currents, promotion of mould growth, reduction of heat transfer, caking and drying, premature cracking, hot
spots creation, erosion, bleaching preservatives,

abrasive wear, corrosion, alkaline reactions and

similar.
For years, research studies, international conferences, summer schools and other events
have been organised in order to understand just
a physical scale at which failure phenomena
should be studied and understood. In order to
understand the motion of failure events it is necessary to understand the physical mechanisms
that cause the motion. That represented a real
challenge, as the answers to the question what
are physical and chemical processes that lead to
the occurrence of failure events have to be provided. Without accurate answers to those questions the prediction of their future occurrences
is not possible, and without ability to predict the
future, the use of the word science becomes inappropriate.
After a numerous discussions, studies and trials,
it has been concluded that any serious studies
in this direction, from Mirce Mechanics point of
view, have to be based between the following
two boundaries:
the bottom end of the physical world, which
is at the level of the atoms and molecules that
exists in the region of 10-10 of a metre [03],
the top end of the physical world, which is at
the level of the solar system that stretches in the
physical scale around 10+10 of a metre. [04]
This range is the minimum sufficient physical
scale which enables scientific understanding of
relationships between system operational processes and system operational events. In other
words, this is the physical range within which, the
system operational processes mentioned above
(fatigue, the wind direction change, suncups formation on the blue ice runway, bird strike, perished rubber, carburettor icing) take place and as
such they could be understood and predicted.
THE BOTTOM END: ATOMIC SYSTEM
All matter in the Universe is made of elementary
building blocks called atoms. Complex interactions between atoms govern existence of larger
building blocks. [2] For example two or more atoms form molecules, ranging from simple oxygen molecules to large polymers and other macromolecules. Besides this way of building the
matter, atoms can arrange in periodic structures
called crystals. Examples of crystals are numerous, from the rock salt (crystal of Na and Cl),
over diamond (made of C atoms) and crystal of
Iron to recently synthesized crystals in the field

of Nanotechnology, to mention just nanotubes
and graphene the miracle materials with large
promise for the future applications. While the
average size of atoms is 10-10 m crystals can
grow to macroscopic dimensions of the order of
a meter, making objects like airplane wings, car
bodies etc. The very atomistic nature of these
objects governs their mechanical, electronic,
thermal and other physical properties, which
are of interest for Mirce Mechanics. Additionally material defects, fatigue and other features,
which can in the final instance, lead to the failure of material and finally a cancellation of flight
or even a disaster, are originated at the atomic
level. Quantum mechanics, a physical theory
developed in 1920s, in exact way describes the
matter at the atomic scale. This theory has the
power to predict the evolution of material under
stress, corrosion or other environmental influences, which complements Mirce Mechanics,
giving meaningful values to the missing parameters of the theory.
THE TOP END: SOLAR SYSTEM
The Solar System may seem enormous, looking
from the human perspective, but it is only a very
small corner of the Universe. However, the entire solar system contains only eight planets that
move in elliptic paths around the Sun. All of them
are lit by the Sun and do not produce their own
light. The distance between the Earth and the
Sun is 150 million kilometres; hence the number
for the top end of 1010. Thanks to its thermonuclear reactions which last for 5 billion years,
the Sun irradiates enormous energy each second in the form of electromagnetic and other radiations, out of which only ~1/109 fraction reach
the Earth. Owing to them rivers flow, winds blow,
forest rustle and the human race flourish.) About
a half of that energy (0.8x1017 watts) reaches
the terrestrial surface, which is 5x1014 square
metres, making the average power of the solar
radiation at ground level is 160 watts/m2. The
99.9 % of it is absorbed by the soil, and goes into
the evaporation of water, causing winds, thunderstorms, and all that we loosely call weather.
Thus, only 0.1 per cent of the radiant energy
of the Sun (around 1014 watts) is captured by
plants through photosynthesis of organic substances from carbon dioxide and water. This energy supports all the living things on Earth, from
bacteria to animals and human.
169

From system reliability point of view, the solar

system is significant in the respect to the making of the weather, which is the day-to-day condition of the atmosphere. It is one of the main
drivers of system reliability, as it is responsible
for the:
temperature and pressure of the air,
wind speeds and directions,
moisture in the air, precipitated as rain, snow,
hail, sleet, dew or frost.
All air contains moisture in the form of water vapour, which is water in gaseous form. As warm
air can hold more water vapour than cold air,
when it is cooled its capacity to hold water vapour decreases, and finally the air is completely
saturated, having a relative humidity of 100 per
cent, known as dew point. Further cooling beyond dew point leads to water vapour condensing around nuclei, such as specks of dust or salt,
to form water droplets or, in cold air, minute ice
crystals. Large quantities of condensed water
vapour form clouds, by which water is continually conveyed from the oceans to the land, where
it is released from the air as precipitation. This
provides the land with the fresh water needed
by animal and plant life. Finally, the water completes the cycle by returning to the oceans.
AN EXAMPLE: IMPACT OF COSMIC RAYS
ON AVIONICS RELIABILITY
In order to illustrate the necessity for the physical scale of studies of reliability phenomena proposed in this paper to be from 10-10 to 10+10 of
a metre, the impact of cosmic rays on reliability
of avionics will be presented here. It has been
concern for avionics, since the late 1980s when
the primary radiation phenomenon, which had
previously been observed in orbiting satellites
only, also began to appear in aircraft electronic
systems (Put some references here). The interaction of this radiation with avionics can result in
occurrence of Single Event Effect, SEE, which
can be manifested as a transient soft error effect such as a bit flip in memory or a voltage
transient in logic. Alternatively, a hard error can
be induced resulting in permanent damage such
as the burn out of a transistor. Due to the rapid
advances in electronics technology and the unrelenting demand for increased avionics functionality in the competitive commercial aircraft
industry, the complexity of avionics systems has
risen exponentially. If device memory cells used
170
for flight safety or mission critical functions are affected the concern is that the loss of key system
functionality due to corrupted data could cause a
flight safety or mission critical failure. Baumann
in [3] stated that: Left unchallenged, SEEs have
the potential for inducing the highest failure rate
of all other reliability mechanisms combined.
Advanced microprocessor and memory semiconductor devices used in modern avionics exhibit an increased susceptibility to SEEs caused
by ionising radiation from the following two main
sources:
Cosmic rays from space (10+10 of a metre
and beyond) that are individual energetic
particles that originate from a variety of energetic sources ranging from our Sun to supernovas and other phenomena in distant
galaxies all the way out to the edge of the
visible universe. Although the term cosmic
ray is commonly used, this term is misleading because no cohesive ray actually exists. The majority of cosmic rays consist of
the nuclei of atoms (atoms stripped of their
outer electrons) ranging from the lightest to
the heaviest chemical elements. In terms
of composition about 90% of the nuclei are
hydrogen, therefore just single protons, 9%
are helium, alpha particles with the remaining 1% a mix of heavier element nuclei, high
energy electrons, positrons and other subatomic particles. Within the atmosphere the
three most important parameters used to
define the variability of the particle flux at a
specific location are: altitude, latitude and
energy. Within the field of cosmic ray physics altitude is expressed in terms of atmospheric depth, which is the mass thickness
per unit of area in the Earths atmosphere.
Cosmic rays can be broadly divided into two
main categories, primary cosmic rays and
secondary cosmic rays. Primary cosmic rays
are particles accelerated at astrophysical
sources and generally do not penetrate the
Earths atmosphere. Secondary cosmic rays
are created when primary cosmic rays collide with oxygen and nitrogen nuclei in the
atmosphere and break into lighter nuclei in a
process known as cosmic ray spallation.
Alpha particles from radioactive impurities
in the materials of which device are made
(10-10 of a metre and below). They are doubly ionised helium atom consisting of two

neutrons and two protons that can also be

described as a helium atom that has been
stripped of its electrons. When an alpha particle travels through a material it will lose kinetic energy primarily through interactions
with the materials electrons, leaving a trail of
atoms with kicked out orbital valence electrons. This process is called ionisation and
it can be described as the physical mechanism that converts an atom or molecule, into
a positively or negatively charged state by
either adding or removing charged particles.
The resulting atom is then referred to as an
ion, or more specifically a cation if positively
charged or an anion if negatively charged.
The issue of alpha particle generating source
contaminates first arose in the late 1970s

when Intel discovered high soft error rates in
new DRAMs when the integration density increased from 16K to 64K. The problem was
traced to a semi-conductor packaging plant
that had just been built downstream from
an abandoned uranium mine. The ceramic
packages were being contaminated by radioactive contaminants in the water. Low energy
alpha particles are emitted from the decay of
trace radioactive materials in semi-conductor
device and packing materials.
The relationship between the radiation particles
and the failure mechanisms of the single events
upsets is shown in the Table below [04]:
Table 1: Summary of Failure Mechanisms

Radiation Type
Radiation Source
Method of Charge
Deposition
Failure
Mechanism
Thermal neutrons
Secondary cosmic
ray neutrons
Indirect Ionisation
Interaction between thermal

neutrons and materials containing
the Boron-10 isotope creates
secondary ionising particles.
Low energy alpha

particles
Radioactive decay
of uranium and
thorium impurities
located within the
device materials.
Direct Ionisation
4 to 9 MeV alpha particle, creating an

electron hole funnel.
High energy
neutrons
( 10 MeV - 1 GeV )
Secondary cosmic
ray neutrons
Indirect Ionisation
High energy neutron collisions with

silicon nuclei.
As the reliance on avionics systems within aircraft increases so do concerns regarding the reliability of these systems, particularly for those
systems, which are considered safety critical.
Hence, to take the appropriate mitigating actions
and enable decisions to be made at the design
stage a method need to be devised that will facilitate the calculation of soft errors rates due not
only to quiescent conditions, but also to take into
account more exceptional solar influenced events.
The research currently undertaken within the
MIRCE Akademy has two main objectives:
the development of an SEE functionability
prediction model
the use of the model to investigate the influence of space weather, flight route and a multitude of other aircraft and system design factors on the resultant shape of the distribution
of SEE initiated failure events throught time.
The main areas of research are: the investigation on the influence of the aircraft structure on
the internal neutron flux spectra at specific inside
locations of the architectures of future commercial aircraft and the evaluation of the methods
and techniques used by the electronics industry
today to assess their suitability for the inclusion
into the SEE functionability prediction model.
A plethora of device and circuit level simulation
methods exist together with a range of empirical techniques exist that could be used at various indentures levels. The integration of these
methods into an SEE functionability model may
lead to an improved understanding of SEE fault
propagation mechanisms resulting in a more accurate prediction of failure events at system level. The final goal is the creation of an innovative
SEE functionability prediction model that
171

will enable the future behaviour of an avionics

system to be predicted for a whole host of different external parameters such as the extremes of
space weather or different flight routes.
Furthermore the model should allow system designers the flexibility to examine the full range of
system design options such as device selection,
system configuration and SEE reduction solutions to allow early functionability improving design decisions to be made, with least investment
in time and resources.
As science is the proved model of reality that

is confirmed through observation, the summary
recommendation of this paper to reliability professionals is to move from the universe in which the
laws of science are suspended to the universe
that is based on the laws of science in order for
their predictions to become future realities.
It is encouraging to know that Rolls Royce reliability department in Darby, England, routinely
recognises over 50 different failure mechanisms
in reliability modelling of their jet engines.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The main objective of this paper was to present

the authors approach to Reliability, one that is
based on the laws of science. I do not believe
in the existence of parallel universes where the
laws are either ignored or bent to accommodate
administrative or contractual requirements. A
prime example of the later is the well accepted
model of system reliability that requires the acceptance of alternative universes to support the
argument that the components and consequently
systems possess a constant, time independent,
failure rate, as described by the equation 2. This
approach stems from neither science nor observation, but from imaginary steps envisaged in
the minds of its proponents who allowed all laws
of science to be suspended. However, this view
is in direct opposition to the observed functionability phenomena like corrosion, fatigue, creep,
wear, quality problems and many other time dependent physical processes that clearly demonstrated that the components/system reliability for
a stated period of time could have increasing,
constant and decreasing probability of success
in respect to the stage of the life of a system,
consisting components and maintenance policies applied, as the science based approach caters for through the reliability function defined by
the equation 1.
I wish with this paper to pass my very best

wishes to Dr Jovan Todorovic, retired Professor
of Mechanical Engineering from Belgrade University for his 80th birthday. Not that he introduced the
subject of Reliability to the University of Belgrade
in mid 1970s, but he has done it by applying the
scientific way, from the beginning, and enthusiastically shared his knowledge with all of those who
were able to embrace it. I was one, of many, benefactors of Professor Todorovics pioneering work in
reliability theory.
Finally, it is essential to distinguish the scientific

approach to the formulation and modelling of the
motion of reliability through the life of a system,
contained in Mirce Mechanics and presented in
this paper, from administrative approach that is
based on reliability models of systems that are
created to demonstrate the contractual compliance of the legally binding acquisition processes,
in western defence and aerospace industries.
172
REFERENCES
1) Bader, R.F.W., Atoms in Molecules: a Quantum Theory, Oxford University Press, Oxford,
UK, 1990.
2) Baumann, R Radiation-induced soft errors
in advanced semiconductor technologies,
IEEE Transactions on Device and Materials
Reliability, Vol 5, No 3, pp. 305316, Sept.
2005.
3) Knezevic J., Reliability, Maintainability and
Supportability A Probabilistic Approach,
with Probchar Software. pp 292, McGraw
Hill, UK, 1993.
4) Todorovi, J.: Upravljanje odravanjem na
bazi rizika, (2009) Journal of Applied Engineering Science (Istraivanja i projektovanja
za privredu, no. 1, p. 23-33
5) Zaczyk, I, Analysis of the Influence of Atmospheric Radiation Induced Single Event Effects on Avionics Failures, Master Dissertation, pp 77, MIRCE Akademy, UK, 2009.

Appendix 1: Mirce Mechanics Concept

Mirce Mechanics - scientific study of the motion of functionability through the life of a human
made and managed system to:
Experimentally determine the pattern of the
motion,
Scientifically understand mechanisms of the
motion,
Mathematically defined laws of the motion
Predict the pattern of the motion of a given
system.
Functionability, the ability of being functional,
is the fundamental property of in-service performance of any system. It is an emergence property of a system, in time domain, resulting from
the complex interactions of natural phenomena,
such as fatigue, corrosion, creep, wear, humidity, wind, hail, foreign object damage, solar radiation and similar, on one hand and from human
actions taken in respect to the type, content and
timing of operational, maintenance and support
processes, on the other.
To achieve the above objectives Mirce Mechanics concept, principles and methods have
evolved from the experimental, theoretical, computational and applied aspects of research, each
of which is briefly described below.
Experimental Mirce Mechanics focuses on
the determination of the pattern of the motion of
functionability through the life of a system resulting from the occurrence of functionability events.
Existing experimental and observed data clearly
demonstrate that the motion of functionability
through life of a large number of identical systems deliver a large number of different functionability patterns, while delivering identical
functionality. Consequently, it is statistical experiment that requires the use of statistical methods
to calculate the average pattern and associated
measures. However, as statistics does not study
the causes of statistical behaviour it is the task of
Mirce Mechanics to scientifically understand the
mechanisms that cause the motion of functionability in time. Thus, functionability phenomena
that cause occurrence of positive and negative
functionability events are subjected to the analyses within physical scale between 10-10 metre
(for the understanding atomic and molecular phenomena) and 10+10 metre (for the understanding of cosmic and environmental phenomena).
Theoretical Mirce Mechanics focuses on the

mathematical definition of the patterns of the
motion of functionability through the life of a system. Mathematically formulated law of the motion, in respect through time, which accurately
represents the observed patterns, is defined
by the expression, named Mirce Functionability Equation, which has been developed by Dr
J. Knezevic at the MIRCE Akademy. It defines,
in the probabilistic terms, the expected patterns
of functionability trajectory and associated measures for a given system, operational rules and
conditions. Although the laws of probability are
just as rigorous as other mathematical laws they
are not able to predict the motion of functionability through the life of each individual system, they
can only predict the probability of each individual
system being in a given functionability state at a
given instant of time.
Computational Mirce Mechanics focuses on the
quantitative evaluation of Mirce Functionability
Equation for a given system and given in-service
rules and conditions, as the analytical solutions
to these equations are too complex to be solved
mathematically. Consequently, it is the task of
Mirce Mechanics to develop effective computational methods that will enable construction of
models that accurately represent the observed
reality of system behaviour, rather then to simplify system reality to cope with mathematical
limitations. The Monte Carlo method has proved
very successful in Quantum Mechanics for finding practical solutions to multi-dimensional integral equations that are of similar nature to those
of the Mirce Mechanics.
173
EVENTS REVIEW
THE 5TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM

OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING SIE 2012
The 5th International Symposium of Industrial Engineering SIE 2012, held in June, 2012 in Belgrade, Serbia, was aimed at providing a unique platform to meet frontier researchers, scientists,
as well as practitioners and share cutting-edge developments in the field. The SIE 2012, fifth in the
series of SIE meetings, was organized by Industrial Engineering Department, Faculty Of Mechanical
Engineering, University Of Belgrade, Serbia and Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies Stuttgart,
Germany.
The Symposium also fostered networking, collaboration and joint effort among the conference participants to advance the theory and practice as well as to identify major trends in Industrial Engineering
today. Proceedings with over 70 papers and disscusions have contributed to better comprehension
the role and importance of Industrial Engineering in this country, both in domain of scientific work
and everyday practice. Despite the widely varying backgrounds and interests of the participants,
the schedule of the meeting kept them all fully engaged by providing a platform where ideas at the
cutting edge of industrial engineering could be exchanged with great enthusiasm. We think that the
synergies and international collaborations resulted through sharing of knowledge and cross-fertilization of ideas at the earlier SIE meetings led to greater maturity at the SIE 2012.
This special issue of the Journal of Applied Engineering Science contains a selection of papers on
all aspects of interdisciplinary themes treated in the SIE 2012. The most relevant contributions are
selected after a standard review process by disciplinary experts.
Special thanks are due to the staff of the Journal of Applied Engineering Science and all the references for their careful work.
174
ANNOUNCEMENT OF EVENTS
IIPP QUALITY MANAGEMENT SCHOOL
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expect a quality product, but they require a proof that the company is capable to produce high quality
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Examples, practice, Deming management experiment
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Time and location:
20.10.2012. - Belgrade, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
22- 24.10.2012. - Zlatibor, hotel Dunav, phone: +38131 841-126, contact person: Brankica Penezi
Institute for research and design in commerce & industry
Phone: 011/6300750; Fax: 011/6300751; E-mail: office@iipp.rs; web: www.iipp.rs
175
117
ANNOUNCEMENT OF EVENTS
IIPP MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT SCHOOL
Maintenance Management School presents practical experience in combination with adopted theoretical knowledge, thus creating maintenance management experts capable to perform and coordinate the maintenance of complex technical systems. Use unique opportunity to expand knowledge
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Corporate/Company Environment
Maintenance Concepts
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Condition Monitoring
Quality Assurance (Systems)
Fault Finding Techniques
Environment and Occupational Health and Safety
Spare Part Management
The school program merges best local knowledge and experience modernized and harmonized
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Since Maintenance Management School connected and unified local tradition and experience in
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20.10.2012. - Belgrade, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering
22 - 24.10.2012. - Zlatibor, Hotel Dunav,
Phone:+38131 841-126, contact person: Brankica Penezi
176
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relates to mechanical systems in a broad sense, with most examples
from motor vehicles presented within fourteen chapters.
The first chapter presents the basic definitions of design, the objectives pursued during the design process, the definition of virtual
prototypes, etc. while second chapter of the monograph is devoted to
describing of the characteristic operational regimes to which mechanical systems or motor vehicle are subjected in service conditions.
The importance of modeling as a basis for automated design of mechanical systems and motor vehicles is presented in chapter three.
Presented are types of commonly used models in mechanical engineering, starting from the simplified form of the imagination of actual
object, through the mechanical (or model of the other sort of models)
to the mathematical model. Within this chapter, it is particularly pointed out the importance of knowing the fundamental principles of theoretical disciplines as the basis for successful modeling.
Bearing in mind that mechanics is the fundamental of mechanical engineering and motor vehicles, the fourth
chapter shows the general theory of rigid body motion and mechanics of rigid bodies systems, because most
of the software for automatically writing of the differential equations of motion are based on these problems.
The fifth chapter is dedicated to the presentation of Finite Element Method and analysis of mechanical structures and problems in motor vehicles, using this method.
Modal analyzes is an important tool used in design of mechanical systems, in particular motor vehicles, because it allows for the successful resolution the problems of noise and vibration. The sixth chapter is dedicated to this theory.
The solutions based on fluid mechanics (various hydraulic and pneumatic installations, power-systems, etc.)
have a broad application in mechanical systems and in motor vehicles. Therefore, in the seventh chapter there
is a presentation of the theory of fluid mechanics, with emphasis on the compressible fluids. In the eighth
chapter, the basic concepts of thermodynamics are given. It is significant here to point out that over 90% of
the overall number of the existing vehicles is still driven by the internal combustion engine, whose operation is
based on thermodynamic cycles. In modern mechanical systems, especially in motor vehicles, electrical and
electronic systems have an important application. Therefore, the ninth chapter gives basic concepts of electrical engineering. Automation is a modem scientific discipline that is very common in all areas of mechanical
engineering, including motor vehicles. Therefore, the tenth chapter presents the basic concepts of the automation, including the most modern systems, and systems with multiple input and output variables.
The analogy of electrical and other physical variables has not lost its significance, despite the existence of powerful
computer systems for numerical solution of the problem. The reason for this is the fact that the knowledge of engineers
is focused on narrow areas, and for solving specific problems in practice (especially in automatics), it is suitable to
present some systems as a black box to solve a system by using the above-mentioned analogy. An example of this
can be a problem in the automation systems on vehicles, when electro-engineers can translate mechanical systems
into analogue electrical circuits, which makes them easier to solve. This problem is described in the eleventh chapter
and a number of examples from mechanics, acoustics, vibration and sound illustrates the procedures.
Twelfth chapter is devoted to optimization methods as the basis for optimal design of mechanical systems and
motor vehicles. Special attention was paid to the method of stochastic parameter optimization, and a process
of optimization is illustrated by a complex task of optimal design in the area of motor vehicles.
One of the stages of design is the experimental verification of the designed system. The experimental studies require expensive measuring chains, considerable time and significant financial resources. As it is known,
planning of the experiment is a discipline aimed to reducing costs for testing of mechanical systems and motor
vehicles. The thirteenth chapter is devoted to this issue while fourteenth chapter gives an example of optimal
design of a complex system - system of active suspension of motor vehicles.
Format B5, Publisher: Centr z nuno-istrivki rd SANU i Univerzitet u Krgujevcu; ISBN 978-86-81037-31-7
177
INSTRUCTIONS FOR AUTHORS

The benefits of publishing in Journal for Applied Engineering Science are:
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Every manuscript submitted to JAES will be considered only if the results contained in the paper
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obligated to adopt the observations and comments of the reviewers.
Articles presented at conferences may also be submitted, provided these articles do not appear in
substantially the same form in published conference proceedings.
All articles are treated as confidential until they are published.
Manuscripts must be in English free of typing errors.
The maximum length of contributions is 10 pages.
THE FORMAT OF THE MANUSCRIPT
The manuscript should be written in the following format:
A Title, which adequately describes the content of the manuscript.
An Abstract should not exceed 250 words. The Abstract should state the principal objectives
and the scope of the investigation, as well as the methodology employed. It should summarize the results and state the principal conclusions.
Not more than 10 significant key words should follow the abstract to aid indexing.
An Introduction, which should provide a review of recent literature and sufficient background
information to allow the results of the article to be understood and evaluated.
A Theory or experimental methods used.
An Experimental section, which should provide details of the experimental set-up and the
methods used for obtaining the results.
A Results section, which should clearly and concisely present the data using figures and
tables where appropriate.
A Discussion section, which should describe the relationships and generalizations shown by
the results and discuss the significance of the results making comparisons with previously
published work. (It may be appropriate to combine the Results and Discussion sections into
a single section to improve the clarity).
Conclusions, which should present one or more conclusions that have been drawn from the
results and subsequent discussion and do not duplicate the Abstract.
References, which must be cited consecutively in the text using brackets [1] and collected
together in a reference list at the end of the manuscript and in alphabetic order.
178
INSTRUCTIONS FOR AUTHORS

Units - standard SI symbols and abbreviations should be used.
Abbreviations should be spelt out in full on first appearance, e.g., variable time geometry (VTG).
Meaning of symbols and units belonging to symbols should be explained in each case or quoted in
a special table at the end of the manuscript before References.
Figures must be cited in a consecutive numerical order in the text and referred to in both the text and
the caption as Fig. 1, Fig. 2, etc. Figures should be prepared without borders and on white grounding
and should be sent separately in their original formats.
Pictures may be saved in resolution good enough for printing in any common format, e.g. BMP, GIF or JPG.
Tables should carry separate titles and must be numbered in consecutive numerical order in the text
and referred to in both the text and the caption as Table 1, Table 2, etc. The tables should each have
a heading. Tables should not duplicate data found elsewhere in the manuscript.
Acknowledgement of collaboration or preparation assistance may be included before References.
Please note the source of funding for the research.
REFERENCES must be written in alphabetical order and in the following form:
Journal:
/Number/ (must match number in the text), Last name, Initial of the authors name, (Year of publication). Article title: secondary title. Title of the Journal (italic), volume number (number of the journal),
page number.
/1/ Petrovi, G., Petrovi, N., Marinkovi, Z. (2008). Primena teorije Markova u mrenim sistemima
masovnog opsluivanja. FACTA UNIVERSITATIS Series Mechanical Engineering, 6 (1), 45 56.
Book:
/Number/ (must match number in the text), Last name, Initial of the authors name, (Year of publication) Book title: secondary title, Place of publishing: Publisher.
/2/ Vasi, B., Popovi, V. (2007) Inenjerske metode menadmenta, Beograd: Institut za istraivanja
i projektovanja u privredi.
Book chapter:
/Number/ (must match number in the text), Last name, Initial of the authors name, (Year of publication) Chapter title: secondary title, Book title: secondary title, Place of publishing: Publisher, page
numbers.
/3/ Vasi, B. (2004) Model Hardverskog resursa, Menadment i inenjering u odravanju, Beograd:
Institut za istraivanja i projektovanja u privredi, 95 97.
Internet source:
/Number/ (must match number in the text), link to the page from which the text is taken, retrieved on
(state the date)
/4/ http://www.autogume.net/veleprodaje/kelena/, retrieved on November 7th, 2010
179
SADRAJ
OD UREIVAKOG ODBORA
Prof. dr Vesna Spasojevi - Brki
UVODNIK
181
REZIMEI RADOVA
Dr Goran Putnik
NAPREDNI PROIZVODNI SISTEMI I PREDUZEA: CLOUD I UBIKVITNA
PROIZVODNJA I JEDNA ARHITEKTURA
182
MSc Bojan Jovanovski, Dr Robert Minovski, Dr Siegfried Voessner

KOMBINOVANI SISTEM DINAMIKE I SIMULACIJE DISKRETNIH DOGAAJAPREGLED HIBRIDNIH SIMULACIJSKIH MODELA
182
Dr Isabel L. Nunes
FAZI SISTEMI ZA PODRKU UPRAVLJANJU U INDUSTRIJSKOM INEMNJERSTVU
182
Dr Mirjana Misita, Dr Galal Senussi, MSc Marija Milovanovi

PRIMENA KOMBINOVANOG MODELA GA (GENETSKIH ALGORITAMA) I
RM (MATRICA RIZIKA) U ODREIVANJU OPTIMALNOG
PROIZVODNOG PROGRAMA
183
Jelena Jovanovi, Dr Dragan Milovanovi, Mili Radovi, Radisav uki

ISTRAIVANJE VREMENSKE I FINANSIJSKE DIMENZIJE PROIZVODNOG CIKLUSA
SLOENOG PROIZVODA
183
U SUSRET DIGITALNOJ FABRICI - ISTRAIVANJA U SVETU I U NAOJ ZEMLJI
184
Dr Jezdimir Kneevi
VREME JE ZA IZBOR IZMEU NAUNOG I ADMINISTRATIVNOG
PRISTUPA POUZDANOSTI
184
180
OD UREIVAKOG ODBORA
Predsednik Organizacionog
odbora SIE 2012
UVODNIK POSEBNOJ TEMI: ODABRANI RADOVI SA
5. MEUNARODNOG SIMPOZIJUMA INDUSTRIJSKO
INENJERSTVO - SIE 2012
Peti Meunarodni simpozijum `Ìndustrijsko inenjerstvo 2012`` (SIE 2012) imao je za cilj da obezbedi jedinstvenu platformu za susret istraivaa, naunika i strunjaka i razmenu najsavremenijih dostignua u oblasti. SIE 2012, odran je u organizaciji Katedre za Industrijsko inenjerstvo
Mainskog fakulteta Univerziteta u Beogradu, Srbija i Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies Stuttgart, Nemaka u junu 2012, u Beogradu, u Srbiji.
Ovaj meunarodni dogaaj takoe je ispunio cilj da umreavanje, saradnja i kolaboracija meu
uesnicima konferencije unaprede teoriju i praksu i identifikuju najznaajnije trendove u oblasti industrijskog inenjerstva danas. Zbornik sa preko 70 radova i diskusije od strane preko 160 autora doprineli su boljem razumevanju uloge i znaaja industrijskog inenjerstva, a uprkos prikazima
razliitih konteksta i razliitim interesovanjima uesnika, program skupa je spajajui razliitosti potpunim angamanom uesnika pruio mogunosti za razmenu razliitih stavova i ideja sa velikim
entuzijazmom i sinergetskim efektima.
Ovaj tradicionalni simpozijum dao je veliki doprinos unapreenju svesti o znaaju industrijskog
inenjerstva na meunarodnom, nacionalnom i lokalnom nivou. Prezentacije koje su organizovane
tokom simpozijuma, prikazale su dostignua na svim nivoima naunog istraivanja kroz primenu
sistemskog pristupa na prakse poslovanja kako velikih sistema tako i malih i srednjih preduzea.
Zakljuak je da jaki dinamiki trendovi u oblasti industrijskog inenjerstva zahtevaju strunost i mudrost da se ouva dugogodinja baza znanja u oblasti, zajedno sa uspostavljanjem fleksibilnosti i
prilagoavanjem, neophodnim za susret sa novim izazovima, koje donosi vreme u kome ivimo i
poslujemo.
Brojevi 3 i 4 asopisa `Ìstraivanja i projektovanja za privredu`` sadre izbor 11 radova, u oblastima
disciplina industrijskog inenjerstva kao to su menadment kvalitetom, upravljanje proizvodnjom,
menadment rizikom, ocena projekata itd. Najrelevantniji doprinosi odabrani su nakon standardnog
procesa revizije od strane Ureivakog odbora, a na osnovu miljenja recenzenata SIE 2012.
Ovim putem se zahvaljujemo lanovima Nauno-programskog odbora SIE 2012 i autorima, kao i pokroviteljima simpozijuma. Posebnu zahvalnost dugujemo uredniku i osoblju asopisa `Ìstraivanja i
projektovanja za privredu``, kao i recenzentima za njihov predan rad.
Beograd, jun 2012
Prof. dr Vesna Spasojevi-Brki
181
REZIMEI RADOVA
Broj rada: 10(2012)3, 229
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2511
NAPREDNI PROIZVODNI SISTEMI I PREDUZEA: CLOUD I UBIKVITNA PROIZVODNJA I

JEDNA ARHITEKTURA
Dr Goran Putnik
University of Minho, Faculty of Engineering, Braga, Portugal
U prvom delu rada je predstavljen koncept ubikvitne (svudaprisutne, sveprisutne) i cloud proizvodnje, kao model naprednih proizvodnih sistema i preduzea. U drugom delu, predstavljena je
jedna arhitektura, koja moe sadrati implementaciju i eksploataciju ubikvitne i cloud proizvodnje
kroz neformalnu i konceptualnu prezentaciju.
Kljune rei: Ubikvitna proizvodnja, Svudaprisutna proizvodnja, Sveprisutna proizvodnja, Proizvodni
sistem, Arhitektura, Sistem usluga, Paradigma
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2512
Broj rada: 10(2012)3, 230
KOMBINOVANI SISTEM DINAMIKE I SIMULACIJE DISKRETNIH DOGAAJA-PREGLED

HIBRIDNIH SIMULACIJSKIH MODELA
MSc Bojan Jovanovski

Ss. Cyril and Methodi University, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Skopje, Makedonia
Dr Robert Minovski
Ss. Cyril and Methodi University, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Skopje, Makedonia
Dr Siegfried Voessner
Simulacija i modeliranje su iroko prihvaeni kao jedan od najvanijih aspekata industrijskog
inenjerstva. Primena i upotreba modela simulacije je eksponencijalno rasla od 1950. godine do danas. Svih tih godina kompleksnost simulacionih aspekata je adaptirana u odnosu na kompleksnost
analiza sluaja koja je rasla proporcionalno. To je razlog zato davno koriene tehnike, esto ne
mogu vie dati adekvatnu predstavu realnog sveta. Iz tog razloga, predloeno je upotreba hibridnih
simulacionih modela, koji predstavljaju kombinaciju simulacionih obrazaca za reavanje problema. U
radu je predstavljen pregled odabranih istraivanja I upotreba sa naglaskom na simulacije diskretnih
dogaaja i dinamikih sistema, kao kljunu simulaciju zasnovanu na tehnikama i predstavljenoj oblasti.
Kljune rei: Hibrid, simulacije, Model, Dinamiki sistem, Simulacija diskretnih dogaaja
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2510
Broj rada: 10(2012)3, 231
FAZI SISTEMI ZA PODRKU UPRAVLJANJU U INDUSTRIJSKOM INENJERSTVU
Dr Isabel L. Nunes
Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculty of Science and Technology, Portugal

Rad predstavlja prikaz potencijala primene teorije Fuzzy`` skupova u reavanju problema, koji
sadre kompleksne, nepotpune i/ili nejasne informacije, esto karakteristine za probleme u industrijskom inenjerstvu. Predstavljena su dva sistema za podrku aktivnostima upravljanja u industrijskom inenjerstvu kao primer upotrebe ove matematike metode.
Kljune rei: Ergonomija, Poremeaji miine muskulature, Lanac snabdevanja, Otpor, Poremeaji
182
REZIMEI RADOVA
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2523
Broj rada: 10(2012)3, 232
PRIMENA KOMBINOVANOG MODELA GA (GENETSKIH ALGORITAMA) I RM (MATRICA RIZIKA)

U ODREIVANJU OPTIMALNOG PROIZVODNOG PROGRAMA
Dr Mirjana Misita
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Mainski Fakultet, Beograd, Srbija
Dr Galal Senussia
Omar El-Mohktar University, Industrial Engineering Department, El-Baitha, Libya
MSc Marija Milovanovi
Jedan od veoma vanih ciljeva u svakom preduzeu je nai optimalno reenje kod inverznih
viekriterijumskih funkcija. Funkcija kojom se opisuju trokovi i funkcija kojom se opisuje profit po
jedinici proizvoda su dve inverzne funkcije sa mnogo konfliktnih informacija o proizvodnim parametrima. Pored toga, za donosioca odluke veoma vano je ukazati na rizik koje optimalno reenje nosi
sa sobom, Iz tog razloga u radu je razvijen model koji predstavlja kombinaciju primene genetskih
algoritama (GA) i matrica riika, radi poboljanja kvaliteta odluke koja se bazira na na kvantitativnim
indikatorima, a ne samo na kvalitativnim. Rezultati istraivanja ukazuju da model integracije GA i RM
ima veoma veliki znaaj u olakanju procesa odluivanja o optimalnom proizvodnom programu uz
istovremeno i poveanje kvaliteta donesenih odluka.
Kljune rei: Trokovi, Matrice, Optimalni program proizvodnje, Upravljanje rizikom, Genetski algoritmi, Vie-ciljna funkcija
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2514
Broj rada: 10(2012)3, 233
ISTRAIVANJE VREMENSKE I FINANSIJSKE DIMENZIJE PROIZVODNOG

CIKLUSA SLOENOG PROIZVODA
Jelena Jovanovi
Tehniki fakultet, aak, Srbija
Dr Dragan Milanovi
Dr Mili Radovi
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet Organizacionih Nauka, Beograd, Srbija
Radisav uki
Kancelarija za proizvodnju i upravljanje inenjerstvom, Sloboda Co. aak, Srbija
Obeleja savremene proizvodnje sa vrhunskom organizacijom i metodama upravljanja zasnivaju se
na naelima ekonomije vremena i principima nove proizvodne filozofije-lean production. Proizvodnju
treba organizovati po principu usisavanja, sa minimalnim zalihama, radei samo ono to je stvarno
potrebno, ni prerano ni prekasno. U radu je prikazan postupak projektovanja i rezultati istraivanja
proizvodnog ciklusa sloenog proizvoda koji se nalazi u proizvodnom programu kompanije Sloboda aak.
Kljune rei: Kompleksni proizvod, Proizvodni ciklus, Projektovanje, Koeficijent radnog vremena,
Trenutna sredstva
183
REZIMEI RADOVA
Broj rada: 10(2012)3, 234
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2513
U SUSRET DIGITALNOJ FABRICI - ISTRAIVANJA U SVETU i U NAOJ ZEMLJI
Rad predstavlja analizu i sintezu istraivanja u oblasti digitalne fabrike i digitalne proizvodnje. Cilj
je predstavljenje razliitih pristupa i koncepta, digitalne proizvodnje i digitalne fabrike, za predlog
uvoenja slinog istraivakog pristupa. Inenjerski model proizvodnje zasnovan na digitalnom
modelu proizvoda, procesi i sredstva su budunost proizvodnog inenjerstva u ovoj oblasti, i ta vie
oni su subjekat analize u studiji od posebne vanosti. Na kraju posebno su predstvaljene budue
smernice za istraivanje u polju digitalne fabrike i proizvodnje.
Kljune rei: Digitalna fabrika, Digitalna proizvodnja, Proizvodnja, Modeliranje, Fabrike
Paper number: 10(2012)3, 235
doi:10.5937/jaes10-2507
VREME JE ZA IZBOR IZMEU NAUNOG I ADMINISTRATIVNOG

PRISTUPA POUZDANOSTI
Dr Jezdimir Kneevi
MIRCE Akademy, Woodbury Park, Exeter, United Kingdom
Glavni cilj rada je da predstavi autorov pogled na pouzdanost, pristup koji se zasniva na zakonima
nauke. Tipian primer koji je prikazan je dobro poznat i prihvaen model pouzdanosti sistema koji
zahteva prihvatanje alternativnih univerzuma da bi podrao tezu da komponente a i sami sistemi
poseduju konstantnu, vremenski nezavisnu meru otkaza. Ovaj pristup ne proizilazi niti iz konvencionalne nauke niti iz eksperimentalnih istraivanja, ve od imaginarnih koraka predvienih u glavama njegovih pristalica gde je po njihovom stavu dozvoljeno suspendovanje svih zakona nauke.
Meutim, ovaj pristup je u direktnoj suprotnosti sa uoenim pojavama kao to su korozija, zamor,
habanje, problem kvaliteta i sa mnogim drugim vremensko zavisnim fizikim procesima koji jasno
pokazuju da pouzdanost komponenti/sistema za odreeni vremenski period moe imati poveanu,
konstantnu i opadajui verovatnou uspeha potujui ivotni ciklus sistema, komponenti i primenjeni
nain odravanja, kao nauni pristup zasnovan na funkciji pouzdanosti.
Kljune rei: Nauka, Sistem, Pristup, Pouzdanost, Zakon
184

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IMPRESSUM

International Editorial Board

Papers are indexed by SCOPUS

Designed and prepress: IIPP

Printed by: Sigrastar, Beograd

ANNOUNCEMENT OF EVENTS 175 - 176

INSTRUCTIONS FOR AUTHORS 178 - 179

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)3

President of the SIE 2012

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)3

Paper number: 10(2012)3, 229, 127-134

ADVANCED MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS AND

Many of existent infra-structures are already

Figure 1: Service offer of Mori Seiki [06, 05].

Figure 2: Types of Product-Service Systems [06,05]

Figure 3: Scientific fields of action [05]

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)3, 229

Computing technology has evolved up to the

Theredore, Ubiquitous Manufacturing Systems

networking that emphasises the possibility of

3) Specific instruments should be used, such

Figure 5: Figurative presentation of VE evolution: from conservative, minimal network domain

A cloud is a platform or infrastructure that enables execution of code (services, applications

AN OVERALL SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE FOR

Figure 6: Overall System Architecture for development, implementation and validation

2) Management environment, for monitoring, scheduling and controlling management

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)3, 229

Figure 8: A vision of the multi-user video-conferencing system as the co-creative environment

It means that the co-creative processes both

Social sustainability: Advanced manufacturing

The supporting technique will be the multi-user

11) Putnik, G. D. (2010). Ubiquitous Manufacturing Systems vs. Ubiquitous Manufacturing

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)3, 229

Paper number: 10(2012)3, 230, 135-142

COMBINING SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND DISCRETE

MSc Bojan Jovanovski - Combining system dynamics and discrete event

In this paper, a comparison and combination of

DISCRETE EVENT SIMULATION

MSc Bojan Jovanovski - Combining system dynamics and discrete event

earlier that SD is more suitable when modelling

analysed a model building process by five SD

Table 1: Meta-comparison of two approaches

Seeking to understand the imapct

Aiming to understand the feedback within the

High level of detail that physically

More macro level of detail that summarises the

COMBINING TWO MODELLING

paper (Rabelo et al. 2005) the authors have also

MSc Bojan Jovanovski - Combining system dynamics and discrete event

conducted in order to define a generic module in

Journal of Applied Engineering Science 10(2012)3, 230

MSc Bojan Jovanovski - Combining system dynamics and discrete event

Type of hybrid model format

This was not possible to be done in DES only

Figure 1: Structure of the hybrid model

MSc Bojan Jovanovski - Combining system dynamics and discrete event

The model works in that way that the SD model

6) Banks, J. ed., 1998. Handbook of simulation,

MSc Bojan Jovanovski - Combining system dynamics and discrete event

17) Crespo-Mrquez, A., Usano, R.R. & Aznar,

29) Martin, R. & Raffo, D., 2001. Application of

MSc Bojan Jovanovski - Combining system dynamics and discrete event

47) Venkateswaran, J., Son, Y.J. & Jones, A.,