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Turkey, Saudi Arabia Strive for Sunni Leadership

Analysis MARCH30,2015|09:16GMT Print TextSize

TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan(L)andSaudiKingSalman(R).(MohamedAbdiwahab/Mandel
Ngan/AFP/GettyImages)

Summary
WithIranonapathtowardnormalizingrelationswiththeUnitedStatesandtheUnitedStatesintenton
reducingitsburdenintheMiddleEast,theresponsibilityofkeepingIranianambitionsincheckhasfallento
theSunniheavyweightsintheregion:SaudiArabiaandTurkey.InleadingOperationDecisiveStormin
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Yemen,SaudiArabiaclearlymovedintothespotlightasaleaderoftheSunniArabworldwillingtoback
rhetoricwithactionincounteringIran.Turkey,meanwhile,hasbeenmorereservedinchallengingTehran,
stickingtosubtlemethodssuchasbackingIslamistrebelforcesinSyriaanddeepeningitseconomicfootprint
inIraqiKurdistanwhileworkingdirectlywiththeShiitedominatedgovernmentinBaghdad.
ButTurkeyisstartingtofeelovershadowedbySaudiArabia.Ontheonehand,Turkeydoesnotwanttobea
partnertoSaudiArabia,muchlessoneofseveralpartnersinaSaudiledcoalition.Itwantstoassumethe
leadershipmantleitself.Ontheotherhand,Turkey'shighlypolarizedpoliticalenvironmentmakesitdifficultfor
Ankaratoengageinriskymilitaryactionbeyonditsborders,reinforcingtheperceptionthatSaudiArabiaisthe
onetakingactionwhileTurkeystaysonthesidelines.

Analysis
IntryingtocompensateforTurkey'slackofparticipationintheSaudiledmilitaryinterventioninYemen,
TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogansaiditwasintolerabletohimthat"Iranistryingtodominatethe
region."ThiswasanextremelyrareandopenfacedcriticismofIranbyTurkey.Turkeyhasinsteadpreferred
tomaintainacordialrelationshipwithIranonthesurface,evenasthetwocountriescompeteonanumberof
battlegrounds.ErdoganisstillplanningtovisitIraninearlyApril,andbothsideswillkeepupappearancesto
anextent.However,theregionalenvironmentwilllikelypushAnkaraintoamoreconfrontationalstance
regardingTehranasTurkeyviesforaleadingroleintheSunniworld.
Turkey'sleadershipcredentialswillstillbeinquestion,atleastforthenearterm.ThoughTurkeyisinching
towardclosermilitarycooperationwiththeUnitedStatesinmanagingtheIslamicStatethreatinIraqand
Syria,itsvisionformainstreamIslamistpoliticalfactionstorisetopowerwillnaturallyclashwithaSaudi,
EmiratiandKuwaitiimperativetopreventMuslimBrotherhoodstyleIslamistsfromchallengingtheir
governments.ButTurkeyisplayingalonggameintheregion,knowingthatIslamistsinEgypt,Syriaandthe
Gulfregionwillstillbeapoliticalforcetobereckonedwithinthefuture.
SaudiArabiaunderKingSalmanhasbeenmorecognizantofthisfactandhastriedtoreconcilewithQatar,
anothersupporterofmainstreamIslamistsintheregion.Turkeycantakeadvantageofincreasedpliabilityin
theSaudipositiontoengagewithitsArabneighborsandofferselectivecooperationinIraqandSyria,where
Turkishinterestsareconcentrated.TurkeyisamajorcomponentofarebeltrainingprograminvolvingSaudi
Arabia,theUnitedStates,JordanandQatar.TurkeyhasalsoofferedlogisticalsupportthroughBaghdadfora
MosuloffensiveandisintalkswiththeUnitedStatesoverflyingarmedPredatorunmannedaerialvehiclesout
oftheIncirlikAirBase.Thesearesmallsteps,butTurkey'smilitaryactivityintheregionwillexpandovertime.

Fornow,SaudiArabiaholdsthereinsinmanagingtheaffairsoftheMiddleEast.Evenwithoilat$50abarrel,
theSaudisarestillmakingaprofitfromoilproduction.Largecashreserves,alongwithmilitarybackingfrom
capableArabforcesliketheUnitedArabEmirates,giveRiyadhthecapabilitytoresetexpectationsthatthe
GulfismadeupofpaperarmiesdependentontheirU.S.patron.
Evenso,SaudiArabiadoesnothaveaneasysolutiontoaproblemasintractableasYemen.Themilitary
campaigninYemenhasdisplayedSaudiresolveincontainingalHouthiexpansion,butSaudiArabiaisnot
goingtobeabletoinsulatethekingdomfromthearrayofthreatssimmeringtoitssouththroughanair
campaignalone.NorisSaudiArabiapreparedtoriskacomprehensivegroundinterventiontoneutralizethe
threatandoccupyhostileterritory.

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Ultimately,SaudiArabiaislikelytocometothenegotiatingtablewiththealHouthis.Thatispreciselywhat
Iranishopingfor.StratforreceivedinformationthatabackchannelnegotiationbetweenIranandSaudiArabia
tookplaceinMuscat,concerningYemen.Oman,whichoptedtostayoutofthemilitaryoperationtopreserve
itsneutrality,makesforanidealconduitforsuchadiscussion.Italsoprovedtobeacrediblemediatorin
backchanneltalksbetweenIranandtheUnitedStates.AnynegotiationbetweenIranandSaudiArabia
probablywouldcoversuchissuesasalHouthiwithdrawalsfromSanaaandAden,resolutionoverarmed
forcesloyaltoformerPresidentAliAbdullahSalehandpoliticalconcessionstothealHouthisinanew
government.Inreturn,IrancouldextractconcessionsfromSaudiArabiainIraqandSyria.
ItistoosoontotellwhetheraconversationbetweenRiyadhandTehrancouldleadtoapoliticalcompromise
todeescalatetheYemeniconflictorifIranisevenacredibleenforcerforsuchcompromise.Thepriorityfor
SaudiArabiawillbetosiphonoffSaleh'ssupportforthealHouthistomakeYemenamoremanageable
conflictratherthantoconcedetotheIraniansinabroadernegotiation.Nevertheless,evenasTurkeyand
SaudiArabiaworkintheirownwaystocounterIranianinfluence,theyarecompetingagainsteachotherfor
SunnileadershipinthefaceofIran'srehabilitation.

Sendusyourthoughtsonthisreport.

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