1/10/2015

CIRCULAR PERMUTATIONS

Continuation of Ch. 2

The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is (n 1)! where one of
the objects is considered fixed in its location.
Examples:
1. In how many ways can a party of 4 (A,B,C, & D) persons
arrange themselves around a circular table?
Answer: (4-1)! = 3! = 6

Circular Permutation

1. ABCD

4. ACBD

2. ABDC

5. ADBC

3. ACDB

6. ADCB

A---fixed
B

In how many ways will A & B sit in adjacent seats? Ans. 4

CIRCULAR PERMUTATIONS

CIRCULAR PERMUTATIONS
2. In how many ways can a party of 6 (A,B,C, D,E,& F)

c. A B & C must not sit in adjacent seats?

persons arrange themselves around a circular table?

5! 36 = 84

Answer: (6-1)! = 5! = 120 ways

In how many ways will:
a.) A & B sit in adjacent seats?

d. the male (ACE) and the female (BDF) sit alternately?

(2)( 4! ) = 48
(1)(2!)(3!) = 12

b.) A B & C sit in adjacent seats?

(3!)(3!)=36

1. A B C D E F
2. A B E D C F
3. A B C F E D
4. A F C B E D

5. A F C D E B
6. A D C F E B
7. A D C B E F
8. A B E F C D

9. A F E B C D
10. A F E D C B
11. A D E F C B
12. A D E B C F

REMALYN QUINAY-CASEM

CHAPTER 3
Conditional Probability and Independence

Conditional Probability
Multiplication Theorem for Conditional Probability
Partition Rule and Bayes Theorem
Independence, Independent or Repeated Trials

A die is rolled. Find the probability that a 3

comes up if it is known that an odd
number turns up.
Let T be the event in which a 3 turns up
and Q be the event in which an odd
number turns up.

Two dice were thrown, and a friend tells us

that the numbers that came up were
different. Find the probability that the sum
of the two numbers was 4.
Let D be the event in which the two dice
show different numbers, and let F be the
event in which the sum is 4.

Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability

Suppose that we toss 2 dice, and suppose

that each of the 36 possible outcomes is
equally likely to occur and hence has
probability 1/36. Suppose further that we
observe that the rst die is a 3. Then,
given this information, what is the
probability that the sum of the 2 dice
equals 8?

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

1/10/2015

In conditional probability problems, the sample

space may be reduced.
Conditional probability
= # of outcomes that satisfy the conditions /
# of outcomes in the sample space

A coin is tossed; then a die is rolled. Find

the probability of obtaining a 6, given that
heads comes up.
Let S be the event in which a 6 is rolled,
and let H be the event in which heads
comes up.

Two dice are rolled, and a friend tells you

that the first die shows a 6. Find the
probability that the sum of the numbers
showing on the two dice is 7.
Let S1 be the event in which the first die
shows a 6, and let S2 be the event in which
the sum is 7.

Suppose that you hold a ticket in a lottery

game (1-30 numbers) with the numbers 1,
14, 15, 20, 23 and 27. You turn on your
television to watch the drawing but all you
see is one number, 15, being drawn when
the power suddenly goes off in your house.
You dont even know whether 15 was the
first, last, or some in-between draw. What is
the probability that your ticket bears the
winning number combination?

Conditional Probability

Assume that 2 cards are drawn in succession and

without replacement from a standard deck of 52
cards. Find the probability that
a. the second card is the ace of hearts, given that
the first card was the ace of spades.
b. the second card is a king, given that the first
card was a king.
c. the second card is a 7, given that the first card
was a 6.

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

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A coin is ipped twice. Assuming that all

sample points are equally likely, what is the
probability that both ips land on heads,
given that:
(a) the rst ip lands on heads?
(b) at least one ip lands on heads?

In the card game bridge, the 52 cards are

dealt out equally to 4 players called East,
West, North, and South. If North and
South have a total of 8 spades among
them, what is the probability that East has
3 of the remaining 5 spades?

(5C3 x 21C10) / 26C13 = 0.339

1 / 29C5 = 0.0000084

Suppose a 2004 fatal crash is selected at random.

What is the probability that it occurred
a. in a rural area?

The likelihood of a fatal vehicular crash is affected by

numerous factors. The fatal crashes by speed limit and
land use during 2004 are given in the table that follows.

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

The likelihood of a fatal vehicular crash is affected by

numerous factors. The fatal crashes by speed limit and
land use during 2004 are given in the table that follows.

Suppose a 2004 fatal crash is selected at random.

What is the probability that it occurred
b. in an area with a speed limit of no more than
50 mph?

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Suppose a 2004 fatal crash is selected at random.

What is the probability that it occurred
c. in a rural area, given that the speed limit was no
more than 40 mph?

The likelihood of a fatal vehicular crash is affected by

numerous factors. The fatal crashes by speed limit and
land use during 2004 are given in the table that follows.

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

The likelihood of a fatal vehicular crash is affected by

numerous factors. The fatal crashes by speed limit and
land use during 2004 are given in the table that follows.

Conditional Probability

EXERCISES

8. Suppose that two dice were rolled and it

was observed that the sum of the two
numbers was odd. Determine the
probability that the sum was less than 8.

9. The numbers of workers, in thousands, in the country

workforce in 2004 are shown in the table.

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

Conditional Probability

EXERCISES

Suppose a 2004 fatal crash is selected at random.

What is the probability that it occurred
d. in an urban area, given that the speed limit was
no more than 40 mph?

What is the probability that a randomly selected worker is a.

male who is at least 65 years of age?
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected worker is
a female?
c. What is the probability that a randomly selected worker
between 16 and 24 years old is a male?
d. What is the probability that a randomly selected female
worker is between 25 and 64 years of age?

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Generalized Multiplication Rule

An ordinary deck of 52 playing cards is

randomly divided into 4 piles of 13 cards
each. Compute the probability that each
pile has exactly 1 ace.

Multiplication Theorem
Multiplication Theorem

P(AB) = P(B) P(AB)

Independence, Independent or
Repeated Trials

Multiplication Theorem

Multiplication Theorem

Multiplication Theorem

P(AB) = P(B) P(AB)

Suppose that an urn contains 8 red balls
and 4 white balls. We draw 2 balls from the
urn without replacement. What is the
probability that both balls drawn are red?
P(R1 R2) = P(R1) P(R2 R1)
P(R1 R2) = (8/12) (7/11)
P(R1 R2) = 0.4242

An ordinary deck of 52 playing cards is

randomly divided into 4 piles of 13 cards
each. Compute the probability that each
pile has exactly 1 ace.

or P(B|A) = P (B)
The conditional probability of A given B equals the
probability of A.

Suppose that youre rolling a fair six-sided die. If

A is the event that the die comes up 1 and B is
the event that the die comes up odd, are these
two events independent?
NO!

Two coins are tossed. Let E1 be the event the first

coin comes up tails, and let E2 be the event the
second coin comes up heads. Are E1 and E2
independent? independent
We have two urns, I and II. Urn I contains 2 red
and 3 black balls, whereas urn II contains 3 red
and 2 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from
each urn. What is the probability that both balls
are black? independent (3/5) (2/5) = 6/25

Independence, Independent or
Repeated Trials

Independence, Independent or
Repeated Trials

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Suppose that two machines 1 and 2 in a factory

are operated independently of each other.
Machine 1 will become inoperative during a given
8-hour period with a probability of 1/3. Machine
2 will become inoperative during the same period
with a probability of 1/4. Determine the
probability that at least one of the machines will
become inoperative during the given period.
P(A or B)
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
P(A or B) = 1/3 + 1/4 (1/3)(1/4)

or P(B|A) = P (B)
The conditional probability of A given B equals the
marginal probability of A.

Independence, Independent or
Repeated Trials

Independence, Independent or
Repeated Trials

P(A or B) = 0.5

Bob is taking Math, Spanish, and English. He

estimates that his probabilities of receiving As in
these courses are 1/10, 3/10, and 7/10,
respectively. If he assumes that the grades can be
regarded as independent events, find the
probability that Bob makes
(a) all As (event A).
(b) no As (event N).

PARTITION RULE/ Total Probability

If two events are independent, does it mean that
they cant happen at the same time? NO!
Why? Cite an instance.
If two events are independent, does it mean that
they are always mutually exclusive? NO!
Why? Cite an instance.

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Independence, Independent or
Repeated Trials

(c) exactly two As (event T).

E = EF + EFC
P(E )= P(EF) + P(EFC )
P(E )= P(EF)P(F) + P(EFC ) P(FC ) OR
P(E )= P(EF)P(F) + P(EFC ) (1 - P(F))

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PARTITION RULE/ Total Probability

P(E )= P(EF)P(F) + P(EFC ) P(FC )E

Two boxes contain long bolts and short

bolts. Suppose that one box contains 60
long bolts and 40 short bolts, and that the
other box contains 10 long bolts and 20
short bolts. Suppose that one box is
selected at random and a bolt is then
selected at random from that box, what is
the probability that this bolt is long?

P(E )= P(EF)P(F) + P(EFC ) P(FC )E

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Conditional Probability and

PARTITIONS

PARTITION RULE/ Total Probability

(60/100) (1/2) + (10/20) (1/2) = 0.46667

Suppose that customers have three restaurants to choose

from in a certain town: R1, R2, R3. Previous data collection
has shown that these restaurants get 50%, 30% and 20% of
the customers, respectively. Suppose you also know that 70%
of the customers who dine at R1 are satisfied (and 30% are
not), 60% of those who dine at R2 are satisfied, and 50% of
the customers who dine at R3 are satisfied. What is the
probability that someone who eats at a restaurant in this
town will be satisfied?
First R second S
Joint Probabilities
0.7
0.5 0.7 = 0.35
0.3
0.5
0.15
0.6
0.18
0.3
0.4
0.12
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
P(S) = 0.35 + 0.18 + 0.1 = 0.63

P(E )= P(EF)P(F) + P(EFC ) P(FC )E

A company buys microchips from three suppliersI, II, and
III. Supplier I has a record of providing microchips that contain
10% defectives; Supplier II has a defective rate of 5%; and
Supplier III has a defective rate of 2%. Suppose 20%, 35%, and
45% of the current supply came from Suppliers I, II, and III,
respectively. If a microchip is selected at random from this
supply, what is the probability that it is defective?

0.20(0.10) + 0.35(0.05) + 0.45(0.02) = 0.0465

Bayes Formula

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Bayes Formula

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

(0.4)(0.3) + (0.2)(0.7) = 0.26

Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year
of purchasing a policy, what is the probability that he or she is
accident prone? (0.3)(0.4) / 0.26 = 0.4615

PARTITION RULE/ Total Probability

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

EXAMPLE P(E )= P(EF)P(F) + P(EFC ) P(FC )

An insurance company believes that people can be divided into

two classes: those who are accident prone and those who are
not. The companys statistics show that an accident-prone
person will have an accident at some time within a fixed 1-year
period with probability .4, whereas this probability decreases to
.2 for a person who is not accident prone. If we assume that 30
percent of the population is accident prone, what is the
probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within
a year of purchasing a policy?

Based from the partition rule

P(E )= P(EF)P(F) + P(EFC ) P(FC )

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EXAMPLE

Bayes Formula

A company buys microchips from three suppliersI, II, and

III. Supplier I has a record of providing microchips that contain
10% defectives; Supplier II has a defective rate of 5%; and
Supplier III has a defective rate of 2%. Suppose 20%, 35%, and
45% of the current supply came from Suppliers I, II, and III,
respectively. If a microchip is selected at random from this
supply, what is the probability that it is defective?

0.20(0.10) + 0.35(0.05) + 0.45(0.02) = 0.0465

If a randomly selected microchip is defective, what is the
probability that it came from Supplier II?

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

P(B|A) P(A)
P(A|B) =
P(B|A) P(A) + P(B|AC) P(AC )

(0.05) (0.35) / 0.0465 = 0.376

Bayes Formula

Bayes Formula

P(B|A) P(A)
P(B|A) P(A) + P(B|AC) P(AC )

EXAMPLE
Whats the chance that a customer ate at R2,
given that he or she is satisfied?

0.5
0.3
0.2

0.7
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5

First R second S
Joint Probabilities
0.5 0.7 = 0.35
0.15
0.18 P(R2|S)
0.12 = 0.18/0.63
0.1
= 0.286
or 28.6%
0.1

P(A|B) =

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

P(A|B) =

P(S) = 0.35 + 0.18 + 0.1 = 0.63

P(B|A) P(A)
P(B|A) P(A) + P(B|AC) P(AC )

EXAMPLE
Assuming that the costumer is satisfied, which
restaurant was he or she most likely to have eaten at?

0.5
0.3
0.2

0.7
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5

First R second S
Joint Probabilities
0.5 0.7 = 0.35
0.15
0.18 P(R1|S)
0.12 = 0.35/0.63
0.1
= 0.556
or 55.6%
0.1

P(S) = 0.35 + 0.18 + 0.1 = 0.63

P(R2|S) = 0.286

Bayes Formula
P(B|A) P(A)
P(A|B) =
P(B|A) P(A) + P(B|AC) P(AC )

This makes sense because Restaurant 1 has

the most customers and gets the highest
costumer satisfaction rating.

EXAMPLE
Assuming that the costumer is satisfied, which
restaurant was he or she most likely to have eaten at?

EXAMPLE
Assuming that the costumer is satisfied, which
restaurant was he or she most likely to have eaten at?

0.5
0.3
0.2

0.7
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5

First R second S
Joint Probabilities
0.5 0.7 = 0.35
0.15
0.18 P(R3|S)
0.12 = 0.1/0.63
0.1
= 0.159
or 15.9%
0.1

P(S) = 0.35 + 0.18 + 0.1 = 0.63

P(R2|S) = 0.286 P(R1|S) = 0.556

at Restaurant 1

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Suppose that customers have three restaurants to choose

from in a certain town: R1, R2, R3. Previous data collection
has shown that these restaurants get 50%, 30% and 20% of
the customers, respectively. Suppose you also know that 70%
of the customers who dine at R1 are satisfied (and 30% are
not), 60% of those who dine at R2 are satisfied, and 50% of
the customers who dine at R3 are satisfied. What is the
probability that someone who eats at a restaurant in this
town will be satisfied?
First R second S
Joint Probabilities
0.7
0.5 0.7 = 0.35
0.3
0.5
0.15
0.6
0.18
0.3
0.4
0.12
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
P(S) = 0.35 + 0.18 + 0.1 = 0.63

0.5
0.3
0.2

0.7
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5

First R second S
Joint Probabilities
0.5 0.7 = 0.35
0.15
0.18 P(R3|S)
0.12 = 0.1/0.63
0.1
= 0.159
or 15.9%
0.1

P(S) = 0.35 + 0.18 + 0.1 = 0.63

P(R2|S) = 0.286 P(R1|S) = 0.556

at Restaurant 1

An industrial company manufactures a certain

type of car in three towns called Farad,
Gilbert, and Henry. Of 1000 made in Farad,
20% are defective; of 2000 made in Gilbert,
10% are defective, and of 3000 made in Henry,
5% are defective. You buy a car from a distant
dealer. Let D be the event that it is defective, F
the event that it was made in Farad and so on.
Find: (a) P(F|Hc);
(b) P(D|Hc);
(c) P(D);
(d) P(F|D).
Assume that you are equally likely to have
bought any one of the 6000 cars produced.

(b) P(D|Hc)

conditional probability

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

(d) P(F|D)

What if F G =

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

200
200
+
6000
6000
=
3000
6000
400
2
=
=
3000 15

conditional probability

1 1000
5 6000
=
11
120
1
4
30
=
=
11
11
120

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Hc = F G
FG=

(a) P(F|Hc)

conditional probability

(c) P(D)

total probability/partition rule

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

1/10/2015

1 3000
2 3000
+
20 6000
15 6000

1
1
+
40 15

11
120

Suppose there is a school having 60% boys

and 40% girls as students. The female
students wear trousers or skirts in equal
numbers; the boys all wear trousers. An
observer sees a (random) student from a
distance; all the observer can see is that this
student is wearing trousers. What is the
probability this student is a girl?
first stage = sex
second stage = uniform

A laboratory blood test is 95 percent effective in

detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact,
present. However, the test also yields a false
positive result for 1 percent of the healthy
persons tested. (That is, if a healthy person is
tested, then, with probability .01, the test result
will imply that he or she has the disease.) If .5
percent of the population actually has the disease,
what is the probability that a person has the
disease given that the test result is positive?
1st= real health condition
2nd = test result

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

Partition Rule and

Bayes Theorem

1/10/2015

EXERCISES

Conditional Probability and

Independence

Conditional Probability and

Independence

EXERCISES

EXERCISES

Conditional Probability and

Independence

EXERCISES

Conditional Probability and

Independence

Consider two urns. The rst contains two white

and seven black balls, and the second contains
ve white and six black balls. We ip a fair coin
and then draw a ball from the rst urn if the coin
lands on heads. If tails comes up, draw a ball
from the second urn. What is the probability that
the outcome of the toss was heads given that a
white ball was selected?
Let W be the event that a white ball is drawn, and
let H be the event that the coin comes up heads.
P(W | H)P(H)
P ( H | W) =
P(W | H)P(H) + P(W | H c )P(Hc )
first stage = ?
1
2 1
second stage = ?
22
9
2
= 9 =
=
67
2 1 5 1
67
+
9 2 11 2 198

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EXERCISES

Conditional Probability and

Independence

Conditional Probability and

Independence

EXERCISES

12. The probability that an archer hits the

target when it is windy is 0.4; when it is not
windy, her probability of hitting the target
is 0.7. On any shot, the probability of a
gust of wind is 0.3. Find the probability
that:
(a) On a given shot, there is a gust of wind
and she hits the target.
(b) She hits the target with her first shot.
(c) She hits the target exactly once in two shots.

EXERCISES

Conditional Probability and

Independence

Conditional Probability and

Independence

EXERCISES

13. You enter a chess tournament where your

probability of winning a game is 0.3 against
half the players (call them type 1), 0.4
against a quarter of the players (type 2),
and 0.5 against the remaining quarter of
the players (type 3). You play a game
against a randomly chosen opponent. What
is your probability of winning?

EXERCISES

Conditional Probability and

Independence

Conditional Probability and

Independence

EXERCISES
14. You have a blood test for some rare disease
that occurs by chance in 1 in every 100 000
people. The test is fairly reliable; if you
have the disease, it will correctly say so
with probability 0.95; if you do not have
the disease, the test will wrongly say you do
with probability 0.005. If the test says you
do have the disease, what is the probability
that this is a correct diagnosis?

11. A jar contains 7 red, 6 green, 8 blue, and 4

yellow marbles. A marble is chosen at
random from the jar. After replacing it, a
second marble is chosen. What is the
probability of choosing
a. a red and then a yellow marble?
b. 2 yellow marbles?
c. no blue marbles?
d. 2 marbles of the same color?
e. at least one red marble?

15. Two methods, A and B, are available for

teaching a certain industrial skill. The
failure rate is 30% for method A and 10%
for method B. Method B is more
expensive, however, and hence is used only
20% of the time. (Method A is used the
other 80% of the time.) A worker is taught
the skill by one of the two methods, but he
fails to learn it correctly. What is the
probability that he was taught by using
method A?

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Conditional Probability and

Independence

EXERCISES
16. John flies frequently and likes to upgrade
his seat to first class. He has determined
that if he checks in for his flight at least 2
hours early, the probability that he will get
the upgrade is 0.8; otherwise, the
probability that he will get the upgrade is
0.3. With his busy schedule, he checks in at
least 2 hours before his flight only 40% of
the time. What is the probability that for a
randomly selected trip John will be able to
upgrade to first class?

End of Presentation

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