Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2015-03-25
Presentation Outline
Asian Economic Outlook
GDP growth
Inflation
External sector
Fiscal and monetary developments
2015-03-25
2015-03-25
6
4
9.3
7.3
6.2
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.3
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
2
0
2010
2011
f: forecast
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.15
Global GDP growth: 3.5%
0.55
0.13
PRC
0.52
India
Indonesia
0.05
US
0.04
Japan Germany
Asia accounts for about 60% of global growth; still fastest-growing region
5
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Moderation in PRC
US
Euro
area
Japan
f: forecast
6
Futures
Brent crude
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
Food
Gold
Copper
Beverage
Natural gas
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
6
5-year average: 4.3
10-year average: 4.1
4
6.0
2
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.1
2.6
3.0
2012
2013
2014
2015f
2016f
0
2010
2011
f: forecast
10
5
Developing Asia
Japan
0
European Union
-5
US
-10
f: forecast
9
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10
FY2014 Overview
11
Industry
Agriculture
Percentage
points
6
5.2
4.6
4.3
Favorable monsoon
Agricultural growth at
4.7%
3.8
4
3.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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12
Inflation
Annual average inflation stayed
high at 9.1% in FY2014
Monthly inflation
% change
20
Overall
15
10
0
Aug20 Feb20
10
11
Aug
Feb20
12
Aug
Feb20
13
Aug
Feb20
14
Aug
Jan
Supply-side bottlenecks
persisted
Food inflation worsened in India
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Oil imports
Tourism and travel
Current account balance
% of GDP
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
-40
2010
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2011
2012
2013
2014
14
% of GDP
30
Grants
Capital expenditure
%
15
10
20
10
0
0
-5
-10
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
BE
-10
Jul2012
Jan2013
Jul
Jan2014
Jul
Jan
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17
FY2016: 5.1%
Unfavorable monsoon
Natural disasters (floods & landslides)
Political uncertainty
(Improved business confidence and
reform-oriented budget)
Normal monsoon
Timely full budget & effective budget
execution
High remittance inflows
Normalization of political uncertainties
Strong investor confidence
4.6
5.1
4.6
4.3
3.5
0
FY2011
FY2012
Agriculture
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FY2013R
Industry
FY2014P
Services
FY2015f
FY2016f
18
FY2016: 7.3%
9.9
9.6
9.1
8.3
7.7
7.3
6
4
2
0
FY2010
FY2011
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FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
Nepal-CPI
FY2015f
FY2016f
India-CPI
19
6
5
3.5
3.4
2.7
3
2
1
0
FY2012
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FY2013
FY2014
FY2015f
FY2016f
20
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21
120
100
120
80
100
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
120
100
70
60
OECD avg
80
50
60
40
40
30
20
20
10
0
Bhutan
(2009)
2015-03-25
Sri Lanka
(2011)
Nepal
(2013)
Bangldesh
(2013)
India
(2014)
Pakistan
(2007)
PRC
(2012)
22
Fairly stable finance sector compared the time when real estate and housing
prices collapsed.
Banking sector troubles surfaced prompting proactive role of the central bank
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Inflation
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
FY2013
FY2014
10
12
10
8
6
4
2
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2013
FY2014
9.9
9.6
9.1
8.3
7.7
7.3
6
4
2
0
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
Nepal-CPI
FY2015f
India-CPI
FY2016f
FY2015
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
FY2015
12
14
Aug
Y-o-Y inflation
Sep
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
30
25
20
20
20
15
10
10
10
5
0
FY2014
-10
Mid-year
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2015
Commerical banks
Development banks
Finance companies
Total deposit
0
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2015
Commerical banks
Development banks
Finance companies
Total credit
-5
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 Mid-year Mid-year
FY2014 FY2015
-10
-15
Construction
Real estate
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Interbank rate
FY2014
14
1200
12
1000
10
800
8
600
400
200
0
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
FY2015 Deposit
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
FY2015 Lending
Jun
Jul
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2014
Mid-year
FY2015
2015-03-25
28
% of GDP
Budgeted
10
Insufficient capital
investment to bridge
infrastructure gap
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
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100
82.6
80
71.8
74.9
71.6
70.8
60
40
20
0
FY2009
FY2010
FY2012
Recurrent
2015-03-25
FY2013R
FY2014P
Capital
30
100
80
24.1
60
3.1
40
8.4
4.9
3.5
3.3
20
0.6
2.0
2.2
Nov
Dec
6.6
5.0
Apr
May
0.1
0
Aug-13
Sep
Oct
Recurrent
2015-03-25
Jan-14
Feb
Capital
Mar
Jun
Jul
Financing
31
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2015-03-25
Innovation
Business
sophistication
Market size
Technological
readiness
Financial market
development
Minimum
Labor market
efficiency
Goods market
efficiency
Maximum
Higher education
and training
Macroeconomic
environment
Infrastructure
Institutions
GCI 2014-2015
More competitive
33
Structural issues
Limited capacity of line ministries (planning & implementation)
Lack of strong pipeline of projects ready for implementation
Legislation hurdles (procurement & processes)
Detailed design
Land acquisition
Project staff and offices
Procurement plans
Weak contractors capacity & construction management
Political instability
Poor quality at entry affects budget allocation efficiency as well
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4.6
5.1
Inflation
7.7
7.3
2.7
3.5
THANK YOU!
2015-03-25
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