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http://www.theguardian.com/environment/keep-it-in-the-grou...
25/03/2015 16:33
What the numbers tell us about how much fossil fuel reserves...
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/keep-it-in-the-grou...
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25/03/2015 16:33
What the numbers tell us about how much fossil fuel reserves...
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/keep-it-in-the-grou...
warming agents quickly would increase the CO2 budget for any given odds of 2C,
whereas allowing them to increase would have the opposite eect. As the last
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report shows, success or failure
on these other fronts could make a big dierence to our carbon budget. And thats not
all: although fossil fuel combustion is the main source of CO2, we also release the
same gas by clearing forests and producing cement. The more of our carbon budget
we eat through in these other ways, the less will be left for burning fossil fuels.
With all these factors at play, there is plenty of scope for conicting, confusing and
out of date estimates. If I had to run the numbers myself (as I did for the Guardians
new interactive fossil fuel counters) I would start with the IPCC stat signed o last
year by almost every government in the world: a carbon budget of 1,000 GT of CO2
from 2011 to give a 66% chance of staying under 2C. Subtract the roughly 150 GT
weve already burned since then and that leaves about 850 GT for all sources of CO2.
If we rapidly stopped deforestation and pushed down hard on the other drivers of
global warming, we might be able to stretch our fossil fuel budget to 1,000 GT which
would let us burn around a third of proven reserves. Let deforestation and other
warming agents run amok, however, while also aiming for better odds of staying
below 2C, and we might have as little as 300 GT left for fossil fuels which would be
closer to a 10th of proven reserves.
In other words, while the familiar Bill McKibben/Carbon Tracker numbers are within
the sensible range, nothing is written in stone. Everything from our view of risk to our
eorts to reduce nitrous oxide emissions from cars and methane emissions from cows
will determine how much of the worlds fossil fuel we need to leave in the ground.
And thats not to mention any disruptive carbon capture technologies that might
come along to help us burn more of the fuel without cooking the climate.
For now, however, all of this detail remains academic. Political leaders negotiating at
the UN have failed to even discuss a total global carbon budget, while fossil fuels
companies (both state owned and private) continue to pump huge sums of money
into nding and developing yet more reserves.
So while it is good to understand what factors will determine our carbon budget, it is
much more important to call on politicians and investors alike to get a grip on this
issue and face up to the simple and incontestable reality: theres far more fossil fuel
than we can burn, and the more of it that we take out of the ground, the greater the
risk of an irreversible climate catastrophe.
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Topics
Climate change
Fossil fuels
Greenhouse gas emissions
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25/03/2015 16:33
What the numbers tell us about how much fossil fuel reserves...
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/keep-it-in-the-grou...
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25/03/2015 16:33