Beyond the Norm: Social Network Analysis of International Trade Disputes Among the

Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO)

Baldwin Wallace University

Spring 2013

Abstract
Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a unique research framework centered on the
relationships among the interacting units, and the patterns of these relationships as the key to
understanding the dynamics of a given structure. This study explores the potential of the SNA
methodology in informing our understanding of the structure of international trade disputes by
comparing the results obtained through SNA tools to the results established by the traditional
statistical tools employed by economics researchers. A dataset of 454 World Trade Organization
(WTO) trade disputes over the period from 1995-2012 are analyzed using NodeXL, a network
analysis software. The paper discusses potential benefits and applications of network theory
with regards to international trade disputes.

Key words: Social Network Analysis (SNA), Graph Theory, WTO, International Trade Disputes,
Agents, Structure, Dispute Settlement (DS) System.

Table of Contents

Reform vs. Regression.....3

Understanding the WTO and DS Mechanism.4

Overview of the Literature...5

Theoretical Analysis........8

Empirical Analysis....10

Discussion and Conclusion....20

Data Appendix...22

References..23

Reform vs. Regression

Classical economic models and theory are gradually evolving from the premise of fully
forecasting the behavior of economic agents through the paradigm of rationality to its current
incarnation, which proposes an array of explanations for apparently complex issues and systems.
Behavioral economics and its recent outgrowth, neuroeconomics, are evidence of an upcoming
reform of traditional economic models. With the ever changing nature of economic problems,
primarily due to increased global politico economic interdependence, there is a need for novel
dynamic research tools capable of capturing the multidimensionality of todays questions.
Network analysis should belong to the tool set of researchers and academics aspiring to explore
the complex domains of economics.
Developed within the social and behavioral sciences, social network analysis has at its
heart the branch of mathematics called graph theory1 (Scott and Carrington quoting Harary and
Norman 1953; Harary et al. 1956; Harary 1969). Graph theory analyses the formal properties of
graphs, which are system of points and lines between pairs of points. The concept of the graph
can be extended to take account of the direction of a line, so as to represent asymmetric
relationships such as friendship choices made or alternatively flow of influence or resources.
SNA is a specific application of graph theory in which individuals and other social actors such as
groups, organizations and so on, are represented by the points and their social relationships are
represented by the lines (Scott and Carrington 2011). Most social scientists recognize the power

1 Graph theory is a set of axioms and deductions that originated in Eulers mathematical investigation of
the seven bridges of Kningsberg. He explored the problem of whether it is possible to walk through the
city crossing each bridge just once in order to visit each of the islands that made up the city. Converting
this problem into a model of points and lines, the points representing the islands and the lines representing
the bridges he showed that the task is impossible.

of the network approach in exploring standard social and behavioral science research questions
by defining the various aspects of the political, economic, or social structural environment.
Analyzing relationships and understanding their patterns calls for a set of methods and
analytical concepts that are different from those of traditional statistics, for instance regression.
While numeric variables, statistics and abstract mathematical models are useful in informing
social science researchers, they do fall short when it comes to assessing the bigger picture. Social
Network Analysis is more of a paradigm, rather than simply a theory or method. In other
words, SNA is more of a way of conceptualizing and analyzing the quantitative and qualitative
aspects of complex system structures. This project does not aim to discard regression or similar
traditional data analysis tools. The goal of this paper is to explore the potential of the SNA
methodology in informing our understanding of the structure of international trade disputes by
comparing the results obtained through SNA tools to the results established by the traditional
statistical tools employed by economics researchers.
Understanding the WTO and DS Mechanism
Established in January 1995, the WTO is the result of the Uruguay Round and previous
agreements under the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT). The nature of the WTO
as an international body is defined by the interactions and the relations among its 159 members,
of which 117 are developing countries (WTO2). The main purpose of the WTO is to provide a
forum for negotiating agreements aimed at reducing obstacles to international trade by ensuring a
level playing field for all. Over the past 60 years, the GATT and the WTO have helped to create a
prosperous international trading system, which in turn has fostered global economic growth.

2 WTO refers to the actual World Trade Organization Website.

Negotiating and compiling international agreements does not guarantee the success of the
organization. The signatories have to comply with the obligations of the agreement, and be held
accountable if they do not comply. In the cases when the signatories do not respect the negotiated
agreements, trade disputes arise. Disputes need to be settled in a timely and structured manner in
order to prevent unresolved international conflicts from disrupting economic growth and to
maintain a fair game based on common rules as opposed to power struggles between the stronger
and weaker players. As a result, the WTO Dispute Settlement (DS) system is considered one of
the major achievements of the Uruguay Round.
The DS system is critical for resolving trade quarrels and ensuring that trade flows
smoothly. A dispute arises when a member government believes that another member
government is violating an agreement or commitment it has made upon being awarded
membership in the WTO. These agreements are compiled by the member governments and are
the outcome. Nonetheless, disputes arise and the ultimate responsibility for settling them lies
with member governments through the DS System.
Overview of the Literature
There is abundant research in the literature on the SNA model and its applications, as
well as the DS system and trade disputes within the WTO. Some of the applications of the SNA
methodology, just to mention a few, include topics such as occupational mobility (White,
Boorman and Breiger 1976), the impact of urbanization on individual well-being (Fischer 1979),
the world political and economic system (Snyder and Kick 1979; Nemeth and Smith 1985) and
so on. There is no evidence of direct applications of the SNA perspective in specifically
analyzing the DS system or the dynamics of the WTO disputes. The majority of the research
works around this topic consist of traditional statistical models such as regression or simple

descriptive statistics. Alternatively, this study assesses the dichotomy between the numbers and
relationships among economic agents by applying SNA to the WTO Dispute Settlement (DS)
system trade dispute cases.
Disputes are defined in various ways by different scholars. This study adopts the dispute
definition provided by Horn, Johannesson and Mavroidis (2011), who describe a dispute as a
bilateral disagreement between two WTO members. For instance, if two members complain
against another member, each of them is counted as having a dispute with the other member.
According to this definition, the WTO Dispute Settlement Data Set (Ver. 3.0) indicates that there
have been 426 WTO disputes during the period from January 1, 1995 to August 11, 2011 (Horn,
Johannesson and Mavroidis 2011). The average number of disputes per year was 20 during
2001-2010, much lower compared to the period during 1995-2000 when it was 36.5 disputes per
year. Horn and his collaborators simply display the data without any attempting to explain why
certain patterns emerge, what are the reasons for the trends in the data and how does this speak to
the function of the DS system and WTOs role.
International trade disputes and the motivations of WTO members to engage in such
disputes have been thoroughly covered in the literature review. Some studies emphasize the
relationship between political systems and variables with trade disputes. Existing studies support
the assumption that democracies experience fewer trade conflicts or be more cooperative in
resolving disputes (Reinhardt 1999). Another hypothesis states that the increased number of
disputes being filed in an indication of the efficacy of the trade dispute settlement system.
Reinhart tested both hypotheses using data on dispute initiation within all GATT/WTO bilateral
trade relations from 1948 through 1998. Based on results obtained through multivariate

regression Reinhardt came to the conclusion democracies experience more trade conflict, and
democratic countries are less likely to solve trade disputes cooperatively.
From its genesis, the WTO was intended to be an apolitical body, but that is certainly not
the case. Given the political variables that have been driving dispute initiation and more
importantly their settlement, the question rises as to whether or not smaller members of the WTO
are able to use the DS system on an equal basis with the more powerful members (Guzman and
Simmons 2005). Guzman and Simmons analyzed the relationship between the political power as
well as the wealth of the WTO members and their ability to fully participate in the DS system.
According to their capacity hypothesis, low income states lack the financial, human, and
institutional capital to fully take advantage of the DS system; therefore they tend to complain
about behavior by high income states. The inability of the low income WTO members to fully
participate in the DS system might be the factor driving the increase in the number of disputes.
Another study conducted by Davey (2005) explores the operation of the WTOs DS
system from 1995 until 2004, utilizing the major users of the system including the United States,
the European Communities (EC), Canada, Japan, Brazil and India. Bilateral relations such as that
between the United States and the EC are given particular consideration. The goal was to
evaluate the success of the DS system in settling disputes in a timely fashion, though mutually
agreed solutions and the actual implementation of the panels reports (Davey 2005). Davey
concludes that since its inception in 1995 the system has successfully dealt with dispute
settlement at the consultation and implementation stage, but the lengthy period taken to achieve
these results demonstrates a lack of od time efficiency as well as promptness of the DS system.
The political factors involved in the dispute settlement process and the differences in power of
the WTO members might be playing a role in the lack of promptness.

A gap exists in the literature when it comes to SNA applications to trade disagreements.
Very few studies have applied network theory to international trade, and almost none have
considered trade disputes. Bhattacharya, Mukherjee, Saramki, Kaski, and Manna (2008)
acknowledged the fact that the International Trade Network (ITN) system of mutual trading
between countries in the world can be viewed as an interesting example of a real-world example.
What makes this study compelling is the combination of graph theory, network measurements
and standard statistical methods to explore the ITN dataset in depth. In the existing literature,
there is no comparable study concerning the WTO DS system and network theory applications.
In sum, the WTO and DS mechanism are complex systems based on relationships that resemble
a web-like structure. SNA exploration of the trade dispute relationships has the potential to yield
interesting and novel results by offering a new perspective supplementing the findings yielded by
traditional research methods.
Theoretical Analysis and Rationale
SNA was leveraged as an alternative model for looking at the structure and the
complexity of the relationships among the WTO members engaged in trade disputes. The WTO
trade dispute network is characterized by well-defined properties emerging from the economic
and political framework of the organization itself. As a result, a number of issues can be assessed
using network theory to survey the characteristics of trade dispute networks and how they have
changed over time. Various factors play a role in shaping the properties of the international trade
network disputes.
Economic variables are heavily emphasized when it comes to trade disputes due to the
assumptions and implications of international trade models. Political variables, essential in
capturing the dynamics of trade disputes, are often times left out of the equation. The new

enhanced WTO regulations and negotiated agreements among member states are thought to have
improved trade disputes, even though it is difficult to find measurable proof that this is indeed
the case. Unfortunately, the lack of a large enough data sample makes it challenging to test the
significance of political factors as applied to the WTO dispute mechanism.
Grinols and Perrelli (2002) assessed the significance of the political variables in trade
disputes in order to determine whether the WTO has been successful in ameliorating disputation.
Using data from the United States trade dispute record they found that political factors are
influential in the initiation of trade disputes and in the length of adjudication, which exhibited a
number of regularities. The study looked at American legislation regarding international trade,
and decided to use US section 301 trade dispute data which spanned a period of 25 years.
Domestic legislation and governmental organizations, such as the US Trade Representative, are
among the political factors that hold a considerable weight responsible for the success or
failure of the WTO regulations.
Additional political influences from the U.S.s standpoint include the presidential life
cycle, and the country against which the dispute is being filed. Relative trade, bargaining power
and membership in intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) impact trade disputes in a number of
ways (Grinols and Perrelli 2002; Ingram, Robinson and Busch 2005). When actors like the
European Union (EU) are involved, the dispute cases are expected to last longer due to the
extended layers of bureaucracy involved in the dispute resolution. Large countries, which higher
stakes in the game, are often more willing to devote longer periods of time and more resources to
negotiations.
Strength of political ties between nations is another aspect impacting the dynamics of
dispute initiation. For instance, in discussing the trade relations between US and Taiwan are

10

important to consider the asymmetries political present and their evolution over time (Grinols
and Perrelli 2002). Despite economic theory suggesting that countries should pursue liberal
trade policies and exchange goods and services on the basis of their comparative advantage, in
practice most states actively intervene in international trade Hoekman and Kostecki (2001).
While the principles of GATT and WTO have helped governments to liberalize trade by resisting
pressures for protectionist measures, and led to greater worldwide economic integration through
international trade. In return, the gamut of political variables has generated an immense level of
complexity in the trade dispute network which is hardly captured by conventional statistical
tools.
Applying network theory to the WTO trade dispute data set innovatively captures the
impact of non economic variables, such as political influences. Network theory allows for a
better visual representation of the complex structure of trade disputes, without leading to a
prescribed outcome. The resulting networks generated by using SNA methodology can be
interpreted based on the context of the project and the specific purpose of the research. SNA has
the potential to uncover a set of network properties that capture the nature of the relationships
between the members of the WTO in terms of international trade disputes oblivious to alternative
data analysis models.
Empirical Analysis
In building and analyzing dispute network maps this study used the software application
NodeXL, a powerful and easy-to-use interactive network visualization and analysis tool.
NodeXL uses Microsoft Excel as the platform for representing generic graph data, performing
advanced network analysis and visual exploration of networks. The tool supports multiple social
network data providers that import graph data into the Excel spreadsheet (Hansen, D.,

11

Shneiderman, and Smith 2010). While being very user friendly, the program comes with a set of
data analysis tools that provide several network measurements in addition to various graphical
layouts and structural iterations.
WTO trade dispute data from January 1995 December 2012, which encompasses the
current lifespan of the organization, were used to compile a database of 454 dispute cases.
Specific attributes recorded for the each dispute cases include complainant, respondent, case
number, year, subject, and third parties. Complainant refers to the country who initiates the
dispute, while the respondent is the country to which the dispute is directed. The case number is
designated by the WTO system, it consists of the letters DS followed by an orderly number.
Subject of a dispute consists of a WTO/GATT agreement, a product or a service about which two
or more countries are arguing about. Third parties are countries other than the ones officially
involved in the dispute that request to join the consultation process due to the ties that can gave
to one of the parties involved, or because they are effected by the potential outcome of the
dispute, and thus decide to take a side.
Following Horn, Johannesson, and Mavroidis (2011) model the countries included in the
dataset were divided into five different groups3, to facilitate the representation of the differences
among WTO members in terms of their participation in the DS system. Namely the five groups
were identified as G2, IND, DEV, LDC, and BIC. G2 consists of the European Union (EU) and
the United States, with the EU being taken as the EU-15 before the enlargement. The authors
emphasize that the number of countries considered as part of the EU does not make a significant
difference quantitatively, because most EU countries have been almost inactive as individual
members of the WTO. IND includes other industrialized countries, DEV accounts for all the
3 An updated list of the exact countries included in each group is included in the Appendix.

12

developing countries that are not classified as least developed countries (LDC), and BIC stands
for Brazil, India, and China. While the LDC lists of countries is the same as the one prepared by
the United Nations, the classification of IND and DEV countries is quite different. Countries
classified under IND are OECD Members, the non-OECD Members among the 12 countries that
most recently became members of the EU, which refers to countries currently at an advanced stage of
their accession negotiations, and countries that are not OECD Members but have a very high per
capita income, for instance Singapore. The significant number of cases in which Brazil, India and
China have participated, in addition to their overall participation in WTO, is the main reason for
classifying the three countries as their own group, the BIC. The rest of the countries that are not IND
or BIC were accounted for in the DEV group. When presenting the updated descriptive statistics
from Horn, Johannesson, and Mavroidis (2011), these same groups will be used.

Building on the work conducted by Horn, Johannesson, and Mavroidis (2011), the
descriptive statistics on WTO trade disputes were updated to include 2012 data. The bar graph of
the total number of disputes, extended to include the period from 1995 until 2012, shows various
fluctuations in the number of disputes. Starting in 2004, a consistent pattern of dispute case
trends emerges. After 2004, one year the number of new dispute increases, and the following
year it diminishes considerably. The greatest magnitude in the up down trend took place
between 2011 and 2012. Reading the graph enables the researcher to get a good idea of the
number of disputes and their change over time, while no information can be inferred regarding
the countries involved. Are new countries joining the trade dispute family? Are previous
countries included in trade disputes intensifying their complaints? How are the relative roles of
central countries within the organization changing over time? Crucial to understanding a body
such as the WTO, an organization of high strategic importance to the global economy, and a very

13

complex interdependent structure, the aforementioned questions cannot be answered by a bar

Figure 1: Updated overview of the number of WTO disputes initiated each year from 1995 to
graph.
Another way of looking at the entirety of trade disputes over this period of time, as
proposed by Horn and his collaborators, is to use a case count and weighted percentages.
After updating the statistics to include 2011 and 2012 data, the group that stands out with the
highest percentage number of total dispute cases is G2, which includes the US and the EU.
Country Status

Complainant

Respondent

Total

BIC

58

12%

65

13%

123

13%

DEV

112

23%

90

19%

202

21%

G2

190

39%

229

48%

419

43%

14

IND

121

25%

98

20%

219

23%

LDC

0%

0%

0%

Total

4824

100%

482

100%

964

100%

Table 1: General statistics of trade disputes from 1995-2012 by groups.

Second in the list are IND countries with 23% of the total dispute cases as indicated by Table 1.
Developing countries (DEV) follow with 21 % of the total cases, but that does not necessarily
speak to their relative power within the organization. One reason for the relatively high
percentage weight might be as simple as the fact that developing countries compose the largest
group in terms of members within the WTO. 117 out of the 154 members of the WTO are
developing countries (WTO). Therefore, if we were to compare the number of cases filed by
each individual member within these groups the disproportion would be obvious. Going back to
the G2 group, the idea is that the EU and US together hold the highest number of trade disputes
filed over the considered time period, but it is not obvious which of them has the highest number
of disputes in their individual records. This information could be obtained by breaking the
percentages down further, but even then nothing would be known about the fraction of the
disputes that the EU and U.S. have been filing against each other. The latter is a proxy of the
kind of relationship between the two major economic and political players of the WTO have.
Network theory provides an interesting and practical approach in answering the aforementioned
questions in a very elegant fashion.
Knowing what the general statistics and the metrics on the properties of the dispute
network are it is much easier to understand what network theory and specifically SNA has to

4 The total number of disputes is higher than 454 because some cases in the previous calculations made
by et. al. were double counted due to overlapping relationships among the designated groups

15

offer. First, lets have a look at a general overview of the WTO trade dispute network. In Figure
2, each node (sphere) represents a WTO member state that has been involved in at least one trade

Figure 2: A general overview of the WTO trade dispute network.

dispute. The node colored in red is the European Union (EU), while the blue node stands for the
United States (U.S.)5. As indicated by the network map the U.S and the E.U. are the central
players in the network with everything else revolving around them. This observation is consistent
with Horn, Johannesson, and Mavroidis (2011) results, but it does provide additional
information about the dynamics of the relationships between the two key players in the network.
Not only do the U.S and the E.U have the highest number of trade disputes with other members,
but they are also highly interconnected with each other. The two countries have been filing the
largest number of disputes against each other. The arrows connecting the E.U. and the U.S
indicate the aggregate number of disputes each country has, as a complainant or respondent.
5 The rest of the nodes have not been labeled in order to keep the picture clean, and also for the purpose
of the research at this point it is not necessary to overcomplicate the network.

16

Additionally, using NodeXl the network can be broken down 6 in order to center on the United
States. A close up view of the U.S piece of the network allows for a better analysis of the U.SE.U. relationship. After having weighted7 the network, it is clear that the major trade dispute
adversary of the U.S is the EU followed by Canada, China, Brazil, Japan, and surprisingly South
Korea. The two headed thick arrow linking the U.S and the E.U indicates that this is a
bidirectional relationship. Comparing the size of the arrow head going into the U.S to the going
out, it is obvious that the one going into is bigger, which means that the E.U has been filing a
greater number of complaints against the U.S. Interestingly enough, the majority of the questions
raised when looking at the descriptive statistics presented by Horn can be easily answered by
looked at network graphs of the trade dispute structure. Network maps identify the difference
between the highly central actors in the structure, and the marginalized countries that have only
participating in a few disputes. While before it was only obvious that the U.S. was a central
actor, SNA shows that the U.S. is an antagonistic member in the international trade dispute
network. Now the implication of political variables can be factored in to explain the relationship
between the U.S. and other major actors in the global economy, for instance the E.U., China and
Brazil as a representative of emerging economies. It can be inferred from this specific network
map that the nature of relationships among this group of countries revolving around the U.S. and

Figure 3: A general
overview
thethat
WTO
dispute
network concerning the United Sates
their dynamics
shape theof
effects
tradetrade
has on the
global economy.
Leveraging the subject property recorded in the initial dataset allows for the weighting of
the products or services involved in disputes according to their frequency of occurrence. Trade
6 This NodeXL function yields a similar result to zooming in and out in order to control the amount of
detail present in the network
7 Weighting is a process during which the software associates a positive or negative value with each line
indicating the magnitude of the relationships strength between the connected nodes

17

disputes in which the U.S. has been involved over time include a very diverse and extended
range of subjects. This additional piece of information can be used to validate the line of
arguments built based on the previous network maps. Also, being able to look at the product

space of the entirety of countries involved enables the researcher to understand the political
agenda of the member states in terms of protectionist measures. For example, the most common
product that the U.S has been disputing about is agriculture and food products, and comparing it
to the previous network graph, this specific relationship is with the E.U. The size of the arrow is
the clue indicating that the trading partner for that specific product is the E. U. disagreement in

18

the agriculture sector are mainly due to the fact that the European union heavily subsidizes
agriculture products.

Discussion and Conclusions

In sum, three network maps were enough to construct a better understanding of the DS
system database and in understanding the fundamental nature of international trade disputes.
SNA traveled from a birds eye view of the WTO trade dispute network, identifying central and
emerging actors, and exploring the U.S.s strategic ties to the rest of the members in the network
to pinpointing a specific product or industry as the corner stone of an entire web like structured
affected the worlds economy. These few sentences summarize the complete 20 some pages it
took to review previous work done in this area, and uncover properties that for decades have
been lost in regression equations and a multitude of numbers.
Network theory is a very strategic tool for exploration and the study of the international
trade disputes structure. The results obtained through SNA tools, were compared to the results
established by the traditional statistical tools prevailing in the literature review. While regression
and other more standard methods are very well suited to conventional economic questions,
network theory offers a different perspective for the exploration of complex phenomena in a
fairly simple way. Analyzing structures like the international trade dispute system, where
relationships are the underlying foundation of economic outcomes, inquires the use of
unconventional methods. Network maps can summarize vast amounts of information, and
organize it in a fashion that serves the purpose of examining specific issues. Patterns, trends,
clusters, weights and the network metrics nicely summarize the overall dynamics of the WTOs
DS system. The main advantage of SNA is the visual aspect of the application. By looking at the

19

completed map of trade disputes information that was not easily derived before, becomes selfevident. To a certain extent, one does not have to think about the questions. With SNA the
questions and the answers are both embedded in the network structure.
While broad in scope, this study has significant implications for future research.
Additional research might be more centered on the U.S and how its role in the WTO has changed
over time. Other political variables, including presidential terms or the political relationships
between the countries engaging in international trade disputes, and separating government
initiated disputes from business initiated ones, would be useful to consider. An interesting
application would involve isolating the trade dispute data during, for instance Presidents Bill J.
Clinton term and look at the policies he implemented and how they affected the structure of the
network.
Alternatively, interesting pairs of countries, such as U.S and China, or the U.S and the
E.U could hold the key to understanding what could make the DS system work better. The next
step is to move from observing patterns in the network into explaining their origin, existence and
potential evolution in the future as well as efficiency of the DS system. Depending on the end
result of this research track, strategic recommendations could be drawn with the objective of
reforming certain WTO mechanisms to properly handle external variables that have been
stagnating the world economy by disrupting the flow of free trade.
Being able to understand the complexity of the trade ties among countries not just as
numbers, statistics, or correlations, but as dynamic relationships that determine the success of the
WTO is an approach that the current research community has not leveraged almost at all. What
has been presented so far is an attempt to recognize the novelty of network theory and the
infinite realms of possibilities for further explorations. Network theory is a novel tool that

20

provides new lenses for looking at old problems with the premise of not only uncovering the
characteristics of those problems, but potentially offering unique insight that might
consequentially lead to feasible solutions.
Time has come for economists to upgrade their toolset to adopt the emerging complexity
of contemporary economic issues and for economic models to shift towards a more constructivist
approach factoring in human behavior. Before striving to predict the trajectory of economic
systems or microsystems, economists have to preoccupy themselves with accurately representing
and understanding these systems.

Data Appendix
Groupings based on Horn, Johannesson and Mavroidis, 2011: The WTO Dispute Settlement
System 1995-2012: Some Descriptive Statistics

21

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