Ao

Mes
Mar

2001

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2002

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2003

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2004

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2005

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2006

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2007

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2008

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2009

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2010

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2011

Jun
Sep
Dic

Tasa de Desempleo
15.7
15.2
14.3
13.8
15.0
16.3
14.6
15.8
13.0
14.1
14.3
12.2
13.6
14.0
12.5
12.1
12.9
11.5
11.2
10.3
11.3
10.6
12.9
11.8
11.9
11.2
10.8
9.9
11.2
11.2
10.9
10.6
12.0
11.3
12.2
11.3
11.8
11.6
10.6
11.1
10.9
10.9
9.7
9.8

T. D. Trimestral
16.6
14.7
14.7
14.0
16.2
15.7
15.2
15.1
15.1
13.9
14.4
12.9
15.4
14.1
12.8
12.1
13.5
12.0
11.6
10.2
12.6
11.5
12.7
11.4
12.9
11.2
10.9
9.8
12.1
11.0
11.4
10.5
12.9
11.7
12.2
11.3
13.0
12.0
11.5
10.7
12.4
11.1
10.5
9.3

Mar
2012

Jun
Sep
Dic
Mar

2013

Jun
Sep
Dic

10.4
10.0
9.9
9.6
10.2
9.2
9.0
8.4

11.6
10.5
10.2
9.2
11.4
9.6
9.4
8.2

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.8394338626
0.7046492097
0.6987421939
1.0815597643
52

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

1
50
51
Coeficientes
21.8855004521
-0.0001010239

Intercepcin
Producto Interno Bruto Oferta

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Pronstico T. D. Trimestral
14.6281455423
14.6087489535
14.5491448527
14.5056035519
14.5735926364
14.3194165046
14.3426520016
14.3235584845
14.2622369774
14.134643792
14.045944808
13.9415871196
13.7960116801
13.7937891543
13.69731133
13.4356594297
13.4562683052
13.3052375751
13.2562409837
13.1603693029
13.0025699715

22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52

12.8070887255
12.5974641335
12.4694668525
12.2942914104
12.233171951
12.027588315
11.7913944374
11.8098818111
11.7221930661
11.6720852118
11.7520961404
11.7013821428
11.6019746254
11.5357029472
11.4469029393
11.3312305741
11.2370762995
11.1827254415
10.8963226857
10.735795709
10.5655704379
10.332710349
10.1867308139
10.0599458197
9.9802379628
10.0426707328
9.8866898316
9.7479840173
9.4985560088
9.3999566827
9.29782152

Suma de cuadrados
139.5423013424
58.4885761892
198.0308775317
Error tpico
0.89489726
9.249573571514E-006

Residuos
1.9407740485
0.0739867211
0.1208727589
-0.5134597169
1.653352357
1.3357695601
0.9066567134
0.7728937616
0.8646129291
-0.1913575658
0.3326331533
-1.0088833738
1.6421576841
0.3479185248
-0.8507039168
-1.2883584859
0.0090288028
-1.3419566674
-1.6155006833
-2.9947716435
-0.4185163539

Promedio de los cuadrados

F
Valor crtico de F
139.5423013424 119.29021908 7.608781411E-015
1.1697715238

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
24.4558805006 1.779869E-029
-10.9220061837 7.608781E-015

Inferior 95%
20.0880464061
-0.0001196022

-1.3068652075
0.0930429575
-1.1109292505
0.5886786501
-1.0340160135
-1.118529435
-2.0055715587
0.2864626562
-0.6755388515
-0.2626850995
-1.2416025434
1.2082990029
0.1123479834
0.6414572776
-0.1351111562
1.6770110236
0.7339838855
0.290631969
-0.2079258911
1.6931279822
0.5476747365
0.11898849
-0.8415301414
1.5101876867
0.5530317919
0.1418379594
-0.6693329281
1.6071144734
0.1119410485
-0.023632842
-1.0596972634

Superior 95% Inferior 90,0% Superior 90,0%

23.6829544982 20.385737637 23.3852632673
-8.24456E-005 -0.0001165253 -8.5522493E-005

Periodo

Trimestre

2001

2002

II
III
IV
I

2003

II
III
IV
I

2004

II
III
IV
I

2005

II
III
IV
I

2006

II
III
IV
I

2007

II
III
IV
I

2008

II
III
IV
I

2009

II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

Producto
Importaciones
Interno Bruto
T. D. Trimestral
Totales
Oferta

71,838
72,030
72,620
73,051

11,979
12,208
11,848
11,678

16.57
14.68
14.67
13.99

72,378
74,894
74,664
74,853

11,001
12,093
12,289
12,487

16.23
15.66
15.25
15.10

75,460
76,723
77,601
78,634

12,839
12,316
13,272
13,354

15.13
13.94
14.38
12.93

80,075
80,097
81,052
83,642

13,799
13,943
13,981
15,377

15.44
14.14
12.85
12.15

83,438
84,933
85,418
86,367

14,721
16,086
16,391
16,698

13.47
11.96
11.64
10.17

87,929
89,864
91,939
93,206

17,703
19,251
19,863
19,838

12.58
11.50
12.69
11.36

94,940
95,545
97,580
99,918

20,720
21,495
22,432
22,775

12.88
11.20
10.91
9.79

99,735
100,603
101,099
100,307

23,242
23,488
24,419
25,431

12.10
11.05
11.41
10.51

100,809
101,793
102,449
103,328

22,999
20,814
21,240
22,691

12.91
11.71
12.18
11.31

2010

2011

II
III
IV
I

2012P

II
III
IV
I

2013Pr

II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV

1.485437824

Ahora buscar en la tabla Watson

n

104,473
105,405
105,943
108,778

23,054
23,651
24,865
25,690

13.01
11.97
11.47
10.69

110,367
112,052
114,357
115,802

27,931
29,450
29,805
30,972

12.43
11.11
10.45
9.35

117,057
117,846
117,228
118,772

31,567
32,456
32,541
32,166

11.57
10.53
10.18
9.22

120,145
122,614
123,590
124,601

31,460
33,087
33,266
33,623

11.36
9.61
9.38
8.24

Residuos
(Perturbaciones
Estocsticas) M

1.9
0.1
0.1
-0.5

(Miut-(Miut1))^2

Miu t-1

1.9 3.484894926
0.1 0.002198301
0.1 0.40237769

Miu^2

3.767
0.005
0.015
0.264

1.7
1.3
0.9
0.8

-0.5
1.7
1.3
0.9

4.695074564
0.100858833
0.184137835
0.017892527

2.734
1.784
0.822
0.597

0.9
-0.2
0.3
-1.0

0.8
0.9
-0.2
0.3

0.008412406
1.115073686
0.274566274
1.799666593

0.748
0.037
0.111
1.018

1.6
0.3
-0.9
-1.3

-1.0
1.6
0.3
-0.9

7.028018691
1.675055002
1.436695758
0.191541522

2.697
0.121
0.724
1.660

0.0
-1.3
-1.6
-3.0

-1.3
0.0
-1.3
-1.6

1.683213777
1.825161741
0.074826329
1.902388382

0.000
1.801
2.610
8.969

-0.4
-1.3
0.1
-1.1

-3.0
-0.4
-1.3
0.1

6.637091317
0.789163686
1.959742871
1.449549078

0.175
1.708
0.009
1.234

0.6
-1.0
-1.1
-2.0

-1.1
0.6
-1.0
-1.1

2.888667016
2.633137971
0.007142518
0.786843729

0.347
1.069
1.251
4.022

0.3
-0.7
-0.3
-1.2

-2.0
0.3
-0.7
-0.3

5.253420842
0.925446901
0.170448221
0.958279362

0.082
0.456
0.069
1.542

1.2
0.1
0.6
-0.1

-1.2
1.2
0.1
0.6

6.002017587
1.201108637
0.279956645
0.603058532

1.460
0.013
0.411
0.018

1.7
0.7
0.3
-0.2

-0.1 3.283786794
1.7 0.889300183
0.7 0.196560922
0.3 0.24855994

2.812
0.539
0.084
0.043

1.7
0.5
0.1
-0.8

-0.2
1.7
0.5
0.1

3.614005829
1.312063138
0.183771898
0.922596041

2.867
0.300
0.014
0.708

1.5
0.6
0.1
-0.7

-0.8
1.5
0.6
0.1

5.530576743
0.916147407
0.169080368
0.657998209

2.281
0.306
0.020
0.448

1.6
0.1
0.0
-1.1

-0.7 5.182212772
1.6 2.23554357
0.1 0.01838028
0.0 1.073429485

2.583
0.013
0.001
1.123

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.8397500487
0.7051801442
0.6931466807
1.0915579088
52

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

2
49
51
Coeficientes
20.9841300909
-8.20387236795298E-005
-4.32942109317385E-005

Intercepcin
Producto Interno Bruto Oferta
Importaciones Totales

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Pronstico T. D. Trimestral
14.5720109064
14.5463450972
14.5135281661
14.4855294921
14.5700517339
14.3163650268
14.3267482679
14.3026706954
14.2376336279
14.1566615922
14.0432423271
13.9549462003
13.8174624756
13.8094232573
13.7294310962
13.4565120834
13.5016489854
13.3199044955
13.2669109802
13.1757649087

21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52

13.0041097403
12.7783453715
12.5816189628
12.4787582551
12.2983176142
12.2151311729
12.0076156946
11.8009592443
11.7957539342
11.7138939462
11.6328958288
11.6540567565
11.7181648382
11.732036585
11.6597758484
11.5248439103
11.4151937731
11.3128870387
11.2161910333
10.9478935276
10.720511669
10.5165125132
10.3120438102
10.1429735104
10.0142548566
9.9110377501
9.9580576734
9.8476252132
9.7655517585
9.4925584685
9.4047390105
9.3063418275

Suma de cuadrados
139.6474427833
58.3834347483
198.0308775317
Error tpico
3.1658942285
0.000064589
0.0001457437

Residuos
1.9969086844
0.1363905775
0.1564894454
-0.4933856571
1.6568932595
1.338821038
0.9225604471
0.7937815507
0.8892162786
-0.2133753659
0.3353356342
-1.0222424545
1.6207068886
0.3322844217
-0.882823683
-1.3092111396
-0.0363518773
-1.3566235878
-1.6261706798
-3.0101672493

Promedio de los cuadrados

69.8237213917
1.1914986683

F
Valor crtico de F
58.60159415 1.009577980E-013

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
6.6281841958 0.000000025
-1.2701657526 0.2100240258
-0.2970572673 0.7676784565

Inferior 95%
14.6220274459
-0.0002118352
-0.000336177

-0.4200561227
-1.2781218535
0.1088881282
-1.1202206531
0.5846524462
-1.0159752354
-1.0985568146
-2.0151363655
0.300590533
-0.6672397316
-0.2234957166
-1.1435631595
1.1915163074
-0.0177139762
0.5173843763
-0.2130521271
1.5930478246
0.6581731463
0.2571663772
-0.259496733
1.7084120222
0.5967326612
0.1396550288
-0.7977728379
1.5558786498
0.6222320046
0.2264510188
-0.6302683097
1.5895467322
0.1179385888
-0.0284151698
-1.0682175709

Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%

27.3462327358 14.6220274459 27.3462327358
4.775771E-005 -0.0002118352 4.77577121E-005
0.0002495886
-0.000336177
0.0002495886