ADMISI Commodities Research

March 24, 2015

Sriram Iyer: sriram@admisi.in

Economic Data
March 23, 2015

Country
GBP
USD
EUR
USD

Economic Data
CBI Trends Total Orders Mar
Existing Home Sales Feb
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar A
Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Speaks in New York

Actual
0
4.88M
-4

Expected
9
4.94M
-6

Previous
10
4.82M
-6.7

Actual
0.40%
50.4
49.2
1.50%
48.2
52.8
52.4
55.3

Expected

Previous
0.40%
51.6
50.7
0.90%
47.6
53.4
51.1
54.7
51
53.7
-0.90%
0.30%
1.40%
-0.80%
1.10%
-3.70%
-14.20%
-0.50%
-1.80%
0.20%
0.50%
9.80%
-0.70%
-0.10%
0.20%
1.60%
0.80%
481K

March 24, 2015

Country
AUD
JPY
CNY
CNY
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
GBP
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD

Economic Data
Conference Board Leading Index Jan
Manufacturing PMI Mar P
HSBC Manufacturing PMI Mar P
Conference Board Leading Economic Index Feb
France Manufacturing PMI Mar P
France Services PMI Mar P
Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar P
Germany Services PMI Mar P
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar P
Eurozone Services PMI Mar P
CPI M/M Feb
CPI Y/Y Feb
Core CPI Y/Y Feb
RPI M/M Feb
RPI Y/Y Feb
PPI Input M/M Feb
PPI Input Y/Y Feb
PPI Output M/M Feb
PPI Output Y/Y Feb
PPI Output Core M/M Feb
PPI Output Core Y/Y Feb
DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Jan
CPI M/M Feb
CPI Y/Y Feb
CPI Core M/M Feb
CPI Core Y/Y Feb
House Price Index M/M Jan
New Home Sales Feb

52.1
50.3
48.9
53.1
51.5
55
51.6
53.9
0.30%
0.10%
1.30%
0.50%
1.00%
1.60%
-12.40%
0.10%
-1.90%
0.10%
0.40%
0.20%
-0.10%
0.10%
1.70%
0.50%
475K

ADMISI Commodities Research

March 24, 2015

Sriram Iyer: sriram@admisi.in

International Market Recap

LME

Previous

Close

Open

High

Net
Chg.
109.50
155.00
-2.00
60.00
30.00

Low

Copper
6040.50 6150.00 6053.50 6154.00 6045.50
Nickel
14135.00 14290.00 14200.00 14365.00 14100.00
Aluminium 1797.00 1795.00 1797.00 1809.00 1786.00
Lead
1776.50 1836.50 1775.00 1839.00 1772.00
Zinc
2055.00 2085.00 2054.00 2092.00 2047.00

Comex
Copper
MAR5
APR5
MAY5
JUN5
JUL5

Previous

Close

Open

High

Low

2.775
2.767
2.761
2.761
2.759

2.808
2.797
2.790
2.790
2.788

2.801
2.775
2.761
2.760
2.755

2.924
2.913
2.915
2.904
2.911

2.785
2.765
2.755
2.760
2.754

Spread
MAR5
APR5
MAY5
JUN5

APR5
0.011

MAY5
0.019
0.008

JUN5
0.019
0.008
-

%
Chg.
1.81
1.10
-0.11
3.38
1.46

Net
Chg.
0.033
0.031
0.028
0.028
0.029

% Vol.
Chg.
-35.77
-30.25
-23.85
4.68
1.89

Volume
23663
4333
11956
8269
12025

%
Chg.
1.19
1.10
1.03
1.03
1.05

JUL5
0.020
0.009
0.002
0.002

Indian Market Recap

Copper Previous

Close

Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15

386.20 384.20 387.30 381.80

390.95 388.90 391.65 386.55
394.70 393.70 395.90 391.90

382.25
386.85
389.45

Open

High

Low

Net
Chg.
3.95
4.10
5.25

%
Chg.
1.03
1.06
1.35

Volume
46232
991
71

% Vol.
Chg.
-34.76
-40.87
222.73

OI
13898
915
248

OI
Chg.
777
84
35

Net OI Change = 896

Spread
Apr-15
Jun-15

Jun-15
-4.75

Nickel

Previous

Close

Open

High

Low

Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15

880.10
887.40
893.10

885.90
893.40
897.60

881.60
888.70
895.20

893.50
900.50
903.00

878.20
885.70
893.20

Aug-15
-8.50
-3.75
Net
Chg.
5.80
6.00
4.50

%
Chg.
0.66
0.68
0.50

Volume
25228
826
21

% Vol.
Chg.
-28.22
-23.52
10.53

OI
6651
1011
39

OI
Chg.
-498
13
9

Net OI Change = -476

Spread
Mar-15
Apr-15

Apr-15
-7.50

May-15
-11.70
-4.20

ADMISI Commodities Research

March 24, 2015
Aluminium Previous

Close

Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15

111.45 111.65 112.50 111.05

112.40 112.50 113.35 112.10
114.05 114.00 114.15 114.00

111.55
112.50
112.85

Open

Sriram Iyer: sriram@admisi.in

High

Net
Chg.
-0.10
-0.10
1.20

Low

%
Chg.
-0.09
-0.09
1.06

Volume
7793
460
6

% Vol.
OI
Chg.
-23.50 2991
8.24
486
-25.00
19

OI
Chg.
165
86
Unch

Net OI Change = 251

Spread
Mar-15
Apr-15
Lead

Previous

Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15

111.40
111.75
111.05

Close

Open

High

Apr-15
-0.95

Low

114.90 111.30 115.10 111.10

115.25 111.85 115.40 111.60
115.45 112.30 115.45 112.30

May-15
-2.60
-1.65

Net
Chg.
3.50
3.50
4.40

%
Chg.
3.14
3.13
3.96

Volume
17839
1245
34

% Vol.
OI
Chg.
10.07
2876
11.66
775
183.33
101

OI
Chg.
134
-278
-13

% Vol.
Chg.
4.59
99.19
1000.00

OI
Chg.
124
215
8

Net OI Change = -157

Spread
Mar-15
Apr-15
Zinc

Previous

Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15

127.95
128.75
128.80

Close

Open

High

Apr-15
-0.35

Low

129.55 127.70 129.90 127.40

130.35 128.45 130.55 128.30
130.20 128.95 130.80 128.95

May-15
-0.55
-0.20

Net
Chg.
1.60
1.60
1.40

%
Chg.
1.25
1.24
1.09

Volume
11804
737
11

OI
2597
953
13

Net OI Change = 347

Spread
Mar-15
Apr-15

Apr-15
-0.80

May-15
-0.65
0.15

Copper futures extended gains on Monday amid speculation demand for the industrial metal will
increase as a result of accommodative central bank policies in the U.S., Europe and China.
Nickel, Zinc and Lead moved higher on Monday. Lead prices upside was supported amid concern
about potential shortages after a dramatic drop in available inventories. Aluminium ends flat.
The Dollar remained broadly lower against a basket of other major currencies on Monday, after
data showed that U.S. existing home sales rose less-than-expected in February.
The Dollar also fell as investors remained uncertain over the timing of a U.S. rate hike. This also
supported prices.
The Euro rallied against the Dollar on Monday amid hopes for progress on the Greek debt front.
The daily inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed a rise in the
inventory levels of Aluminium and Lead. Meanwhile, the inventory levels of Copper, Nickel and
Zinc fell on Monday.
The weekly inventory data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) showed a rise in
the inventory levels of Lead and Zinc. Meanwhile, the inventory levels of Copper and Aluminium
fell on Friday.
Except for Aluminium, rest of the base metals futures moved higher on Monday on MCX.
3

ADMISI Commodities Research

March 24, 2015

Sriram Iyer: sriram@admisi.in

LME Official Stocks in MT

20-Mar-15 23-Mar-15 Net Chg.
3,976,650
3,983,725
7,075
341,750
340,925
-825
430,482
430,008
-474
234,875
238,050
3,175
524,075
521,400
-2,675

% Chg.
0.18
-0.24
-0.11
1.35
-0.51

SHFE Official Stocks in MT

Commodity 13-Mar-15 20-Mar-15 Net Chg.
Aluminium
217,917
208,318
-9,599
Copper
241,616
239,349
-2,267
Lead
49,023
49,045
22
Zinc
138,364
139,196
832

% Chg.
-4.40
-0.94
0.04
0.60

Commodity
Aluminium
Copper
Nickel
Lead
Zinc

Commitment of Traders - 3/10/2015 - 3/17/2015

Non-Commercial
Commercial
Non-Reportable
Weekly
Weekly
Weekly
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Net
Position
Position
Position
Change
Change
Change
Futures
-17,547
3,981
28,170
-4,184 -10,623
203
and Options
-17,527
3,983
28,155
-4,176 -10,628
193
and Options - Disaggregated
NaN
NaN
NaN
NaN
NaN
NaN

ADMISI Commodities Research

March 24, 2015

Left CFTC net positions of copper, Right LME Copper

Sriram Iyer: sriram@admisi.in

Source: Reuters

LME Copper - (6138.00)

Trade Recommendations None.

Source: Reuters

MCX Copper April - (386.9)

Trade Recommendations Buy above 380.00 with targets 389.10-393.40 and an S/L at 374.50. Book
profits and exit this call.
Outlook LME Copper could trade range bound to weak as weak data from china could weaken
demand from the country. Resistance is at 6208. Support is at 6059. MCX could trade range bound to
weak, tracking weak overseas prices. A strong Rupee could support prices. Support is at 383.75.
Resistance is at 390.00.

ADMISI Commodities Research

March 24, 2015

Left LME warehouse inventories, Right LME Nickel

Sriram Iyer: sriram@admisi.in

Source: Reuters

LME Nickel - (14155.00)

Trade Recommendations None.

Source: Reuters

MCX Nickel March - (879.7)

Trade Recommendations None.
Outlook LME Nickel could trade range bound to weak. Support is at 13970. Resistance is at 14530.
MCX Nickel could track overseas market and move higher. Support is at 866.15. Resistance is at 894.95.

ADMISI Commodities Research

March 24, 2015

Sriram Iyer: sriram@admisi.in

DISCLAIMER:
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be
reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to
observe these restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not
soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy
any commodity or commodity derivative in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for
the general information of clients of ADMISI Commodities Private Limited. It does not constitute a personal
recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual
clients. We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be
reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM),
ADM Investor Services International Limited (U.K) nor ADMISI Commodities Private Limited, nor any
person/entity connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material
should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred
to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions
including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities involve
substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a
stock's price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a commoditys fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a commodity's fundamentals. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing
on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there
may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are
cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our
investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.
No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without ADMISI Commodities Private
Limited prior written consent.