ACCURACYOFFURANANALYSISINESTIMATING

THEDEGREEOFPOLYMERIZATION
INPOWERTRANSFORMERS
NkosenyeSidwellMtetwa

AresearchreportsubmittedtotheFacultyofEngineeringandtheBuilt
Environment,UniversityoftheWitwatersrand,inpartialfulfillmentof
therequirementsforthedegreeofMasterofScienceinEngineering

TABLEOFCONTENTS
Abstract.......3
AbbreviationsandAcronyms..........4
Acknowledgements.............5
Chapter1ResearchBackground......6
1.1 Introduction.......6
1.2 OverviewoftheReport.........6
Chapter2PowerTransformerAspects....7
2.1 TransformerDesign,ConstructionandLifeExpectancy..............7
2.2 AgeingofTransformerInsulation.........8
2.2.1EffectsofOxygen...............9
2.2.2EffectsofMoisture.............9
2.3 DegreeofPolymerization............10
2.4 Furanicanalysis........12
2.5 CorrelationbetweenFuranicanalysisandDegreeofPolymerization........12
Chapter3DiscussionandAnalyses.............16
Chapter4CaseStudies........18
Chapter5ResearchConclusionsandRecommendations....21
5.1 Conclusions.........21
5.2 Recommendations...22
Chapter6ReferencesandBibliography....22
6.1 References...................22
6.2 Bibliography....23

ABSTRACT
Thelifeofatransformerisdeterminedbythelifeofitspaperinsulation.Theageofthe
paperinsulationisdeterminedbythemechanicalstrengthofthepaperandismeasuredin
termsofitsDegreeofPolymerization(DP).Thetraditionalmethodofdeterminingthe
DP,calledthedirectmethod,requiresactualpapersamplesandisthereforeintrusiveand
costly. The method used more recently, calledthe indirect method, estimates the DP
valuefromthefurancompoundsdissolvedintheoil.Theaimofthisresearchwasto
investigatetheaccuracyoftheindirectmethodindeterminingtheremaininglifeofa
transformer.Thiswasachievedbyfirstconsideringtheageingprocesses,ascoveredin
theliterature,andcheckingwhethertheexistingmathematicalmodels,relatingthefuran
contenttotheDP,haveintegratedallthefactorsoftheageingprocess.Itwasfoundthat
theindirectmethodisnot100%accurate,andthattheinaccuracyincreaseswithageas
more external factors come into effect. It is recommended that results based on the
indirectmethodbetreatedasanapproximation.Toreducethedegreeofinaccuracyitis
recommendedthatagoodhistoryofthetransformeroilbekept,theDPbedetermined
usingthedirectmethodbeforeatransformerisdispatchedfromthefactory,andtonot
usetheindirectmethodifoilhasbeenreplacedwithinthepastfiveyears.

ABBREVIATIONS
DP
DGA
PPB
PPM
TU
2FAL

DegreeofPolymerization
DissolvedGasAnalysis
PartsperBillion
PartsPerMillion
ThermallyUpgraded
2Furaldehyde

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
FirstandforemostthanksbetoGodAlmighty,whoistheonlygiveroflife,forthe
opportunityHehasgivenmeonearth.ThanksalsotoDr.JohnvanCollerwhoentrusted
me toresearchon thistopic.ThankstoEskom Enterprise TechnicalSupport Service
LaboratorystaffforassistingmewithdatabaseextractsandtoElmonSkhosanafrom
RotekEngineeringforhishelpidentifyingtransformerspecimens.
My thanks also go to my colleagues Roger, Nkosinathi, Michael and Keri for their
support,andadvice.Lastlybutnotleastthankstomywife,Thandazileandmysons
NtokozoandNtobekoforallowingmesometimetoconcentrateonthisresearch.Toyou
allUnweleOlude(Zuluidiommeaningmayyoulivelonger).

CHAPTER1BACKGROUND
1.1Introduction
Transformer failures are costly. Utilities prefer to retire a transformer just before it
reachestheendofitsusefullife.Thisendofusefullifepointisdeterminedbythe
remaining life of the paper insulation. A well established method of determining the
remaininglifeistodeterminethedegreeofpolymerization(DP)ofthepaper.Newpaper
hasaDPofmorethan910andagedpaper,thathasreachedtheendofitsusefullife,hasa
DPofabout200.TomeasuretheDP,apapersamplefromthehottestspotofthewinding
should be removed. This method is, however, intrusive, which makes its application
limited.
An alternative method is to estimate the DP from the oil furan concentration 2
furaldehyde in particular. This method is nonintrusive and is therefore preferred by
utilities.SincethismethoddeterminestheDPbasedonabyproductoftheageingprocess,
itneedstobeinvestigatedintermsofaccuracy.
Thisresearchprojectwasaimedatinvestigatingtheaccuracyoftheindirectmethodby
criticallyanalyzingtheexistingmathematicalmodelsusedtodeterminetheDPfromthe
furanconcentration.Recommendationsareincludedafterdiscussingthefindings.

1.2OverviewOfTheReport
InChapter2,transformersandtheirassociatedageingprocessesarediscussed,followed
byreflectingontheworkalreadydonebyvariousresearchersintermsofageingandthe
relationofDPtotheageingprocess.Finally,themathematicalmodelsthathavebeen
developedforthecorrelationofDPtothefuranconcentrationarediscussed.
InChapter3,themodelsarecomparedusingarbitrarydatafromatransformeroverits
servicelife.Thisisdoneinanattempttoreflecthowthesemodelsdifferfromeachother
astheyweredevelopedbasedonparticularconsiderations,andtoidentifyifthereisa
model that can best represent all these models irrespective of the different criteria
originallyused.
Chapter4givessomecasestudiestodemonstratethefindingsofChapters2and3.In
Chapter 5 conclusions are drawn in terms of the findings of this research and
recommendationsaregivenonhowthesemodelscanbeappliedtakingintoconsideration
theirlimitations.

CHAPTER2TRANSFORMERASPECTS
Oilfilled power transformers have been used for more than a century. Although the
principleofoperationofpowertransformershasremainedthesameforalltheseyears,
advancementshavebeenmadeintransformerinsulationsystems.Ifcomparedwithother
keyassets,suchasmotorsandgenerators,apowertransformerhastheadvantageofbeing
stationary,whichmeans thatmechanical wearisminimal (limitedto thetapchanger
mechanism).
Thepowertransformeralsoformsasignificantpercentageofthetotalinvestmentinthe
powersystem.Everytransformerownerthereforerequiresimplementationofthebest
practicesavailabletoeffectivelymanagetransformerlifeandinturngetagoodreturnon
investmentandrevenuefromtheasset,andtominimizecostlyfailures.

2.1TransformerDesign,ConstructionandLifeExpectancy
AlthoughpublicationssuchasIEEEC57.911995mentionalifespanofabout20years
for a power transformer, today the common belief is that an oilfilled transformer is
designedforalifeexpectancyof30to40years.Therearehowevertransformersthat
have gone beyond this age and are still in operation. Fundamentally, the major
componentsofatransformerarewindingswithassociatedsolidinsulation,andthesteel
partse.g.core,frame,andtank.Thesteelpartscanlastformanyyears.Thisistruealso
forthecopper,fromwhichthewindingsaremade.Thisishowevernotthecasewiththe
insulationsystem.
Thetransformerinsulationsystem,primarilyconsistingofmineraloil,paperandother
cellulosicmaterials,hasafinitelife,evenunderidealoperatingconditions.Thepaper
insulationlifeisdefinedbyachemicalprocessnormallycalledageingwhichdepends
primarilyontemperatureandtime.Moistureandthepresenceofoxygenareotherfactors
thatacceleratetheageingprocess.
When the insulating oil degrades, it can either be regenerated by treatment or even
replacedifnecessary.Forthecellulosicmaterials,incontrast,thereisnoeasyandcost
effectivewayofreplacingthepaperinsulationanditslostlifecannotberecovered.This
isthereasonwhytransformerownersareconcernedwithestimatingtheremaininglifeof
theirtransformersandthereasonwhygoodmanagementoftransformerlifeisimportant
rightfromthestart.
Through research it has been found that there is a relationship between the tensile
strengthofthepaperandtheassociatedDPvalue.TheDPvalueindicatesthenumberof
monomerunitsinthepolymerasthecelluloseisalinearpolymercomposedofindividual
anhydrous glucose units linked by glucosidic bonds [1]. The current practice is to
measure the quality of the cellulose (remaining life) in terms of the DP value. To
determine the DP value, paper samples are taken from various locations within the
transformerwindingsandsenttoalaboratorywheretheyareanalyzed.Thisiscalledthe
directmethod.
Theproblemwiththismethodisthatitisinvasive,andeveryutilitywantstomaximize
the time its assets are in service. An alternate method of determining the DP value,
withouttakingthetransformeroutofservice,involvesanalyzingtheinsulatingoilfor
furaniccompounds,whichareproducedduringtheageingofthecelluloseinsulation.

Thismethodisreferredtoastheindirectmethod.Studieshavebeendonewhichcorrelate
the DP value with the furan content in the oil. Mathematical models showing this
correlationhavealsobeendeveloped[23].
Furaniccompoundsthatareformedduringcelluloseageinginclude2furaldehyde,5
methul2furaldehyde, 5hydroxylemethyl2furaldehyde, 2acetyl furan, and 2furfuryl
alcohol. It has been found that the most stable byproduct is 2furaldehyde, and its
concentrationisthereforeusedbytheindirectmethodforestimatingtheDPvalue.

2.2AgeingofTransformerInsulation
Theinsulationsystemofapowertransformerconsistsofhydrocarbonoilandcellulose
paper.Bothoilandpaperhavebeenusedasinsulatingmaterialsinoilfilledtransformers
for more than a century. These are effective insulators more especially in their
combinationasitisrevealedintheirobservedsynergism[3].

Figure1:Transformersolidinsulationsysteminawindingblock.
Evenunderidealconditionsthesetwoinsulatorsage.Theirageingisafunctionofthe
operatingconditions,withthermalstressesbeingthefundamentalandbiggestcontributor
totherateoftheageing.Oilageingcanbeeasilydetectedfromoilsampleanalysesand
oilcaneitherberejuvenatedbysomeprocessorbereplacediftheendofitsusefullife
hasbeenreached.
With the paper insulation, this is not the case. The lost life cannot be recovered. In
addition,thereiscurrentlynocosteffectivemethodofreplacingthepaperonceithas
reachedtheendofitsusefullife.Oncethepaperhasreachedtheendofitsusefullife,the
transformerisalsodeclaredashavingreachedtheendofitsusefullife.Accordingto
manypublicationstheexpectedlifeofthepaperundernormaloperatingconditionsis
approximately 20 years [4 5]. This life expectancy is based purely on the thermal
ageing,anddoesnotconsiderotherfactorsthatacceleratetheageingprocess.
Cellulose,whichisthemajorconstituentoftheKraftpaper,isalongstraightchainof
glucosemolecules.Kraftpaperisusedinpreferencetootherpapertypesbecauseofits

high purity. This paper is prepared for the electrical industry to a specific electrical
resistivity, and is a cheap source of insulation. The latter point is an important
considerationintheconstructionofthetransformertakingintoconsiderationthequantity
ofpaperthatwillberequired.Inthispaper,theglucoseringsarelinkedbyglucosidic
bonds,andmuchofthemechanicalstrengthofthepapercomesfromthelongchain
cellulosepolymer.
Asthecelluloseages,thepolymersarecleavedandbecomeshorter,hencethemechanical
strengthisreduced.Themainfactorcausingdegradationofpaperinsulationisthermal
stress. Degradation occurs even under normal operating temperatures, however this
processisacceleratedathighertemperatures.Other factorsthataccelerate theageing
processarethepresenceofmoistureandthepresenceofoxygen.
Paper ageing in transformers is not uniform. The ageing will follow the thermal,
oxidationandmoisturegradients.Transformerwindingsandleadsareoftenwrappedwith
anumberofinsulationpaperlayers,typicallyfromsevenlayersup,dependingonthe
voltage stress levels. These paper layers constitute a great percentage of the entire
celluloseinsulation.ThepurposeoftheKraftpaperlayersistoactasbothelectrical
insulationandtooffermechanicalstrengthtothewindingsduringfaultsandvibration
stresses.Liketherestoftheinsulation,thispaperwillageasthetransformercontinuesin
service.Itisnormallyintheselayersthattheweakestspotisdevelopedduringservice
life.Thisisbecausethepaperlayersaregreatlyexposedtoallfactorsoftheageing
process.

For a transformer that is running with inadequate cooling, overloading, and/or

localizedhotspots,thepaperlayersthataretheclosesttotheconductorwillagefaster
thanthosefurtheraway.Thereasonforthis,isthattheconductoristhesourceofheat.
Thepaperaroundtheconductors/turnsthatareattheupperpartofthewindingage
fasterthanthoseatthebottomduetotheheatgradientalongtheaxiallengthofthe
windingblock.Thepaperofthehotterwinding(HVorLV)willalsoagefasterthan
thatontheother
2.2.1EffectsofOxygen
Paperageingisinfluencedbythepresenceofoxygen.Thermallyupgradedpaperisless
sensitivetothepresenceofoxygenthanthenormalKraftpaper[5].Foratransformerthat
issubjectedtoahighconcentrationofoxygen,theouterpaperlayerswillhavealower
DPvaluethanthoseinside,judgedpurelybytheeffectofoxygen.Thisistrueforthe
entire winding length because the oxygen gradient is along the radial axis of the
conductororlead.Suchagradientpatternisbecausethepaperprovidesaphysicalbarrier
forthegasdiffusion.Thispatternismorevisibleontransformersthathavefreebreathing
conservatorsastheyhaveahighoxygencontent.
2.2.2EffectsofMoisture
Theeffectofmoisture(water)ontheageingofpaperinsulationissignificant.Therateat
which the paper will degrade is directly proportional to the water content. Through
researchithasbeenfoundthatdecreasingthewatercontentfrom1%to0.5%doublesthe
lifeofthepaperinsulation[6].Inatransformer,wherethereisahighwatercontent,the
ageingwilldependontheloading.Foratransformerthatisheavilyloaded,theinner
layersaremuchwarmerthantheouterones.Thiswillmakethewaterthathasbeen
trappedintheinnerpaperlayersmovetotheouterlayerandtothesurroundingoil

whereinitwillgetdissolved.Theouterlayerswill,however,stillbeincontactwithoil
andhencemoisture.Thereforetheouterlayerswillbemoreaffectedbymoisturethanthe
innerones.
For lightly loaded transformers, the temperature gradient is not significant since
temperaturedistributionisalmostuniform.Thewatereffectisthereforealsorelatively
uniforminallthelayers.
ThesefactsaretobeconsideredwhenpapersamplesaretakenfromatransformerforDP
valuedetermination.Ifthesearenottakenintoaccountthewrongconclusioncouldbe
drawnforaparticulartransformer.
Asthesecellulosicmaterials deteriorate,some byproductsareformed,andthesecan
serveasindicatorsoftheageingprocess.Thetwomostusedbyproductsoftheageing
processarethefuraniccompoundsandthecarbonoxidegasses.Theadvantageofusing
thesebyproductsisthattheageingprocesscanbemonitoredwhilethetransformerisin
serviceasopposedtotakingapapersamplewhichrequirestheunittobetakenoutof
service.Inmostutilitiestheoutageoftheunitforanalysesmaynotbefavouredbecause
ofproductionlossesandothercoststhatareincurredduringtheanalyses.
The paper deterioration leaves the transformer vulnerable to stresses generated by
thermal,mechanicalandelectricaltransients.

2.3DegreeofPolymerization(DP)
Thesolidinsulationusedtoinsulatetransformerwindingconductorsisasheetofmaterial
madefromcellulose.
The main source of this cellulose fiber is wood, since wood contains up to 50% of
celluloseinadrycondition[3].Celluloseisalinearpolymercomposedofindividual
anhydrousglucoseunitslinkedatthefirstandfourthcarbonatomsthroughaglucosidic
bond.Themechanicalstrengthofcelluloseisafunctionofthepolymericandfibrous
nature.ThenumberofmonomerunitsinthepolymerchainisknownastheDPvalue.
ThequalityofthecellulosematerialismeasuredintermsofthisDPvalue[1].
TheDPvalueiscurrentlyusedbyutilitiesasadiagnostictooltodeterminethecondition
ofthesolidmaterial(particularlypaper).NewpaperisestimatedtohavetheDPvalueof
1000to1500.TheDPvalueisfirstreducedbythedryingprocessesthattakeplaceduring
theassemblingofthetransformer.ItisbelievedthatafterthisprocesstheDPvalueofthe
paperisabout950[3].Thepaperwillageinserviceasmentionedintheprevioussection
untilacriticalpointisreached(seefigure2).Thisiswhenthepaperisdeclaredtohave
reachedtheendofitsusefullife.Thisisalsoregardedastheendofthetransformer
servicelife.

10

a)

b)

Figure2:Microscopicviewofa)newpaperwithhighDPvalue,b)agedpaperwith
lowDPvalue
Overtheyears,therehavebeenanumberofstudiesoninsulationageing.However
eventodaythereisnoconclusionastowhattheendoflifeDPvalueis,althoughmany
researchersspecifyitforaDPvalueof300andlower.Comprehensiveliteratureisnow
availablebasedonacceleratedageingofpaper/oilinsulation.Mostofthesepaperstake
the end of paper life criterion as 50% of its original tensile strength, which is an
equivalentofDPvaluebetween200and250[1],[3].
Traditionally,todeterminetheDPvalueoftheinsulationofaparticulartransformer,
papersamplesfromvariouspointsanddifferentwindingsarerequired.Thegeneral
practiceistotargetthespotsofhighesttemperaturei.e.windinghotspots.Howeverit
isnotalwaysatthewindinghotspotwheremuchageingwillbeexperienced.For
example,foratransformerthatiswetorhasahighoxygencontent,thepatternofthe
ageinggradientacrossandalongthewindingwillbedifferenttothatofthetransformer
thatispurelyageingthermally.
Someofthetransformersinservice,moreespeciallytransmissiontransformers,are
idlingforasignificantportionoftheirservicelivesbecausesubstationsaredesigned
withredundancy;however,theymayhavehighoxygenlevelsandhighwatercontent
andwillthereforeexhibitadifferentageingpatterntoothertransformerswhichhavea
highloadingfactor.Examplesoftransformerswithhighloadingfactorsaregenerator
stepuptransformers,whichmusttransformthetotalpowergeneratedbygenerator.
Thisbringsustothecriticalpointofacquiringthepapersamplefromatransformer
insulation system i.e. the direct method. It is critical to understand the operating
conditionsofthetransformer,inordertoidentifyortochoosetherelevantspotsfor
samplingandhenceobtainmostaccurateresults.Inadditiontothis,thedisadvantage
ofthisdirectmethodisthatitrequiresthetransformertobetakenoutofservice.
Moreover,itmayberequiredtodismantleatransformerthathasnotfailedinorderto
accessthepaperintheinnerwindingsoftheconcentricwindingassembly,andinturn
posesriskssuchasreducedinsulationintegrityandpoorworkmanshipfortransformers
thatareexpectedtocontinueinservice.
Thisdirectmethodgivesrealresults,howevertheacquiringofthesampleitselfisnot
thatstraightforwardatall.Utilitiesavoiditfortheabovementionedreasons.

1
1

2.4Furanics
An alternative method for estimating the DP value of the paper insulation is non
intrusive.Sincesomebyproductsareformedduringageingandgetdissolvedinoil,the
oilcanthereforebeanalyzedforfurancontent.Thereasonthefurancontentanalysisis
preferred to carbonoxide gas analyses, is that the carbonoxide gasses are not only
formedduringpaperageing.Theyarealsoformedfromotheractivitiessuchaspartial
dischargesandoverheating.Duringanelectricaldischarge,carbonmonoxideandcarbon
dioxideareformed.
Carbonoxide gasses can also be formed from materials other than those comprising
cellulose,suchasoil,undersomeconditions.Recentstudies[5]haveshownthatfuranic
compoundsaregeneratedalsoifthecelluloseissubjectedtoelectricaldischarges,butin
verysmallquantities.Duringthermalageing,largequantitiesoffuraniccompoundscan
begeneratedwhencellulosicmaterialsareexposedtoveryhightemperatures(typically
above120C).Therateofaccumulationwillalsobeafunctionofotherfactors:oxygen
concentrationandwatercontent.
Accordingtothefindingsof[5],onceformed,thefuraniccompoundscanthensurvive
forprolongedperiodsoftimeinbulkoil,whichisatamuchlowertemperaturethanthe
hottest spotin the insulation (winding). The types offuranic compounds thatcan be
formedare

1
2
3
4
5

2furaldehyde
5methul2furaldehyde
5hydroxylemethyl2furaldehyde
2acetylfuran
2furfurylalcohol.

Thestabilityofthefuraniccompoundsisofmuchinterestinordertobeabletodraw
someconclusionfromtheanalyses.Compoundswhicharenotstableforalongperiodof
timewillleadtheanalystortheengineertoinaccurateconclusion.Someoftheabove
mentionedfuraniccompoundsareformedduringageingbutareveryunstableundera
numberofconditions.These,therefore,cannotbeusedorarenotusefulfordiagnostics.
Thestudieshaverevealed,throughlaboratorytests,that2furfuralalsoreferredtoasthe
2furaldehyde(2FAL)isthemoststablebyproductofcelluloseageingasitisstablefor
years.ItisthereforewidelyusedasanindicatorinordertopredictthepaperDPvalue
[5].
Intheliteraturethereisstilldebateontheissueoffuraniccompoundaccumulationfrom
thermallyupgradedpaperandfromnormalKraftpaper.Someliterature[5]statesthatthe
behaviourisdifferentifusingthermallyupgradedpaperwhilethereareafewwhostate
that there is no difference in furanic compound behaviour between the thermally
upgradedpaperandnormalKraftpaper.Thisreportassumesadifferentpatternforthe
twotypesofinsulatingpaper.

2.5CorrelationBetween2FALandDegreeofPolymerization
The removal of paper from a transformer is extremely difficult, especially if the
transformerisstillexpectedtocontinueinservice,andmayleadtothefailureoftheunit
ifnotdonewithappropriateskill.Theabilitytoestimatetheconditionofthepaper

12

withoutexposingthetransformertosuchariskisthereforedesirable.Ithasbeenfound
thatindirecttestingcanbedonebyanalyzingtheoilfortheconcentrationofthefuranic
compounds,whichareformedduringtheageingprocess.Aftertheirformationduringthe
ageingprocess,thefuraniccompoundsmigratefromthepaperintotheoilandhenceby
analyzingtheoilthe,DPvaluecanbeestimated.
Althoughthemeasurementoffuraniccompoundsfromanoilsampleisrelativelysimple,
theinterpretationiscomplex.Asithasbeenmentionedbefore,morethanonemechanism
isinvolvedintheageingprocess.Atlowtemperatures,moistureandcarbonoxidegasses
are the more dominant products of the ageing process. The furanic compounds are
dominantatintermediatetemperaturesandareunstableathightemperatures[3].Several
authorshavestudiedpaperageingandhaveattemptedtorelatefuranicstotheDPvalue
[17].
Suchstudieshavebeendonebasedondataobtainedfromvariousspecimensincluding
laboratory studies and transformers taken out of service for repair or investigation.
MathematicalmodelshavebeendevelopedfortheobservedrelationshipbetweentheDP
valueandthefuraniccompound(2FAL)concentration.
ThetransformerlossoflifemodelbyArrheniusiswellknown.Itisbasedontheconcept
that temperature is the only ageing parameter. According to this model, transformer
ageingisdictatedbytheageingofthemostthermallystressedlocationi.e.thehottest
spotusuallyreferredtoasjustthehotspot.Thismodelisgivenbyequation1below[2].
B

LoL%100t10

273

where:
LoL%lossoflife
A,BANSIstandardparameters
hotspottemperatureindegreesCelcius
ttransformeroperatingtimeinhours,withhotspottemperatureof
TheArrheniusmodelassumesthatthepaperageingiscausedonlybytemperature.Itis
thereforebasedontheprevailinghotspottemperatureonthewindingblocksandthe
associated time duration of the thermal excursion. From these two main parameters
(temperatureandtime),the%lostlifeisestimated.
Thechallengetogetaccurateestimationofremaininglifefromthismodelisdueto

1
Thedifficultyofaccuratelymeasuringthehotspottemperatureanditsdurationas
thesecanonlybeestimated.
2
Thefactthatageingisnotonlyduetothermalexcursionbutalsofromnormal
operatingtemperaturesandisaggravatedbythepresenceofmoistureandoxygen.
3
Therequirementtocontinuallyintegrateallcalculatedlostlifeanddeductitfrom
originallife(100%)todeterminetheresiduallife.
TheArrheniusmodelwilltendtooverestimatetheremaininglife.
CheimandDupont[6]builtupontheArrheniusmodeltocomeupwiththeexpression
that will relate the universal parameter 2FAL to the DP value. In their model they
consideredthatageingshouldbeanindicationoftheaveragedegradationofthewinding.
Theycameupwiththeexpression.
13

(1)

LoL.ln(2FAL)
where:
,fittingparametersbasedontypeofpaper
2FALaveragevalue,inppm,foratransformeroperatingthours,havinga
temperaturegradientofthewindingbeing.
Thismodel,likeArrheniuss,canbeuseddeterminetheremaininglifebydeductingthe
lostlifefromtheoriginali.e.initiallife.
InrelationtotheDPvalue,theCheimDupontexpressionis:
1

2FAL d
DP

where,
representingshortenedexpression[2]
dparameterrepresentingtypeofpaper(thermallyupgradedpaperornormalKraft)

The model byCheimDupont is a better expression of the ageing process because it

relatespaperageingtoboththehotspotgradienttemperatureandthepapertype.Above
all, it gives a DP value that is based on the byproduct of ageing (2FAL). The
shortcoming of this model is that when oil is either processed e.g. regenerated or
replaced,the2FALconcentrationwillchangeandthiswillbringaboutmoreinaccuracy.
Furthertothis,the2FALconcentrationisanaveragevalueofdifferentpaperageingrates
fromvariousspotsofthewindingblock,andisthereforenottheaccuratemeasurementof
theweakestspot.
Like the Arrhenius model, the ChemDupont model does not directly take into
considerationtheeffectofmoistureandoxygeninaccountingforthepaperageing.The
effectofthesetwoparametersisindirectlyaccountedforbythefactthatthe2FALis
producedbyageingprocessandnotonlybythermalageing.
Theothermostdiscussedmodelsinliteraturearethoseof
1
Chendong
2
DePabloand
3
Burton
TheChendongmodelisexpressedasshowninequation4:

DP

log(2FAL)
1.51
0.0035

wheretheconcentrationof2FALisinppm
Thisequationwasdevelopedbasedonthedatacollectedfromtransformersthathave
normal Kraft paper and free breathing conservators. Stebbins proposed a modified
Chendongequationtobeusedforthermallyupgradedpaper.Stebbinssequationisgiven
byequation5.

(4)

14

log(2FAL*0.88)
4.51
0.0035

DP

Forthisequationtheconcentrationof2FALisexpressedinpartsperbillion(ppb).
Both the Chendong's and Stebbins's models are limited to only certain transformers, i.e.
accordingtothetypeofpaperusedforinsulation.ThesemodelscalculatetheprevailingDP
valuebypurelyconsideringtheconcentrationofthefuransinoil.Theuseoffuransisbetter
thanusingpurelyhotspotgradient,becausetheformerisbasedonthebyproductofthe
ageingprocess,whichmaybeduetoeventheotherfactors.
The major setback with these models is in case where the oil has been replaced or
regenerated,whichwillvarytheconcentrationofthefuransasindicatedinthecasestudies.
LikeintheCheimDupontmodel,theconcentrationof2FALisanaveragevalueandnotthe
realpresentationoftheweakestpoint.
DePablocamewiththemodelthatisgivenby

DP7100(6)8.82FAL
where2FALisinppm,andtheequationislinear.
The De Pablo model was also modified by Pahlavanpour et al.[3] in order to take into
considerationthatpaperageingisnotuniformandtheassumptionthat20%oftheinnerpaper
layersinthewindingdegradetwiceasfastastherestoftheinsulationpaper.Themodified
DePablosequationis

800

DP
[0.186*2FAL]1
and2FALisexpressedinppm.

ThemodelswhereintheDPvalueiscalculatedfrom2FALpresentabetterestimationofthe
DPvalueifcomparedtotheearliermodelswhereahotspotgradientanditstimedurationare
usedtocalculatelostlife.Theuseof2FALcompoundtocalculatetheDPvalueisabetter
method because it indirectly takes into consideration the other factors of ageing because
2FALisabyproductofageing.Variousmodels,using2FALconcentration,asgivenabove
(equations(3)(7))differfromeachothereitherbecauseofdatasamplestheyarebasedupon
or certain assumptions considered, but they do not present a total different new way of
determiningtheDPvaluei.e.theyallusefuransasakeyparameter.
Thecommonlimitationwithallthesemodels[(3)(7)]isthattheconcentrationof2FALis
affectedbyoilreplacementorbyoilreconditioningprocessese.g.regeneration.Insuchcases,
whenoilhasbeenreplacedorregenerated,thetotalpictureintermsof2FALconcentrationis
distortedandveryinaccurateresultsaretheonlyoutcome.Thisdistortionof2FALisbecause
oilprocessingthatisdonetotreattheoilforbetterinsulationpropertieswilldiscardorvary
thefuranconcentration.
Suchoilprocessesare[6]:
1
Degassingbypartialvacuum
2
Mechanicalfiltration
3
Oilreclamation

(5)

15

OilChange
Othersourcesoffuran(2FAL)concentrationdistortionare
1
Thestabilityofthefuraniccompoundsitselfatvarioustemperaturelevels
2
Useofmixedpaperi.e.normalKraftandTUpaper
3
Electricaldischargeandhightemperatureswhichalsoyields2FAL
4
Transformeroilpreservationsystems
5
Partialrewindsonatransformer
These models can therefore only be used in transformers where the oil has never been
replacedorreconditioned.

CHAPTER3DISCUSSIONANDANALYSES
Ofmuchinteresttotheengineerorthetransformerownerisknowledgeofwhichmodelgives
moreaccurateestimationoftheremaininglife,determinedasaDPvalue.Thepurposeofthis
chapteristobringtogetherthemodelsintroducedinChapter2sothattheycanbeevaluated
fromacommonsetoftransformerhistory.
Suchacomparisonwillassistindemonstratingifanyofthesemodelscanbegenerallyused
for any transformer, and not only limited to certain categories as was mentioned in the
previouschapter.
Chendongsmodel,althoughbasedonthedatafromunitscontainingnormalKraftpaperand
freebreathingconservators,hascometobeusedbysometoevaluatethepaperDPvaluefor
alltransformers.Isthisapplicationjustified?
Table1belowshowsthedifferencebetweenDPvaluesgivenbythefourmodels,forthe
rangeoffuranicconcentrations,usingsyntheticdata(datanottakenfromanyexistingunit).
Thiswillbeusedtoexplainwhathasalreadybeendiscussedintheliterature.Itcanbenoted
thatthereisnoliteraturethathascomparedthesefourmodelstogether.Intheliterature,
differentcombinationsofmodelsarecomparedasisthecasewith[2].FromTable1,Figure3
wasobtained.
Table1:Dataofarbitrary2FALconcentrationvs.DPvaluesusingmodels
Furan
[2FAL]
0.01
0.1
0.5
1
2.5
5
10
15

Chendong
1003
717
517
431
318
232
146
95

DegreeofPolymerization
Stebbins
DePablo
1316
806
1031
798
831
763
745
724
631
628
545
514
459
378
409
298

Pahlavanpour
799
785
732
675
546
415
280
211

16

DP vs Furans
1400

1200

1000

800

Chendong

DP

Stebbins
De Pablo
600

Pahlavanpour

400

200

0
0.01

Furans concentration in ppm

Figure3:GraphicalpresentationofDPvaluesdeterminedfromfuransbydifferentmodels
Thegraphicalrepresentationofthesyntheticdatareflectsasimilarpatterntothatshownby
the Chendongs and Depablos plots in [2]. Chendongs model suggests that the furan
production is slow initially with rapid production once the DP reaches a value of
approximately450.Theendoflifevalue(200DP)isreachedatabout7ppmof2FAL.
ChendongsmodelgivesthelowestDPvalue,foragivenfuranconcentration,ifcomparedto
allothermodels.Ascanbededucedfromthepreviouschapter,theindirectmethodwilltend
tooverestimatetheresiduallife.TheChendongsmodelwillgivethelowestoverestimation
orpossiblyunderestimationfortransformerswiththermallyupgradedpaper,whichissafer.
ThisresearchthereforeacceptstheuseoftheChendongmodelasageneralmodel.
Stebbinsmodelsuggeststhatthethermallyupgradedpaperproducesmorefuransthannormal
Kraftpaperforagivenageing.Thiscanbeseenfromthefactthatforthesamelevelof
furans,thereisstillmoreDPvalueremainingonthethermallyupgradedpaperaspresented
byStebbinsmodel.TheChendongmodelandthatofStebbinshowasimilarpattern.
Thisisexpectedasthesemodelsdifferonlyonthetypeofpaper(normalKraftorthermally
upgraded)usedinatransformer.Thethermallyupgradedpaperproducesmorefuransthanthe
normalKraftpaperforagivenageing.
DepablosmodelshowsthattheDPstartsatavalueofabout800.Thisiscontrarytowhat
most literature says and what is found in reality from direct samples. Some fairly new
transformers,aroundthreeyearsofservice,haveshownDPvaluesofabout900.
This model also shows steady ageing. Compared with Chendongs model, there is a big
discrepancy.Forexample,forthesamevalueof2FAL=7ppm,Chendongsmodelsaysa
transformer has reached the end of its useful life while from the De Pablos model a
transformer has not even reached 50% (400DP) of original value (800DP). The model
developedbyCheimandDupontasitappearsin[3]isclosetoChendongsbutshowsavery
rapidproductionoffuransonlywhentheDPvaluefallsbelow300.

17

The discrepancy among thesemodels is an indicationthat more work is still requiredin

comingupwithamoreaccuratemethod.Deviationsfrommodeltomodelarealsodueto
differentageingfactorsandageingassumptionsbeingconsideredbydifferentmodels.
Inordertoidentifywhichmodelismoreaccurate,casestudiesformpartofthisresearch.In
thiswayDPvaluedeterminedusingthedirectmethodwascomparedtotheDPvaluebythe
indirectmethod,givenbyeachofthediscussedmodels.Itwasexpectedthatnomodelwould
be100%accuratebecauseofthesefacts:

2FAL,whichisacommonlyusedparameterfortheindirectmethod,isanaverage
valueandisnotanactualreflectionofamostagedspot.
2
2FALisnotproducedatallageingtemperatures[3].
Therewasdifficultyinobtaininggoodspecimensbecause:

Nospecimenwasavailablewhichcontainedoilthatwasputinfromthebeginningof
thetransformerservicelife.Mostofthefailedunitsfromwhichthephysicalpapersamples
weretakenhadundergoneoilreplacementafewmonths(mostly630months)previously,
andtheothershadnoavailableageassessmentreportsatall.Theeffectofoilreplacementis
showninthefirstcasestudygivenbelow.

Onthefailedunits,theoilisinterferedwithquickly.Inmostcasesduetothenatureof
failure,the2FALwouldnotbefromageinginservicealone.
Therefore, the analyses that could be done withthese samples would not be an accurate
reflectionoftheageingprocess.

CHAPTER4CASESTUDIES
CaseStudyNo.1
Ageneratorstepuptransformerwithserialnumber28042wasmanufacturedin1984byABB
andwasfirstcommissionedin1985.Thiswasdoublewound,withnormalKraftpaper,and
freebreathingconservatorunit.Theothernameplateinformationisshownintable2below.
Table2:Nameplateinformation
RatedPower
RatedVoltages
RatedFrequency
VectorGroup
OilVolume

700MVA
22/400(388.5to451.5kVOLTC)
50Hz
YNd1
103000Litres

Thisunitwas,onaverage,keptatabout70%loadingforitsservicelife.Itunderwentnormal
maintenanceschedules.InApril2002,anoilreplacementwasdoneontheunittogetherwith
thefittingofanairbag(rubberbag)intheconservator.
TheageassessmentwasdoneinNovember2003.ThereportindicatedthattheDPvaluewas
greater than 910. In the same month abnormal gassing was observed on the unit and in
January2004itwastakenoutofserviceduetohighacetylenelevels.
InternalinspectiondoneonsiteindicatedoverheatingontheLVwindings.Theunitwasthen
senttotheworkshopforfurtherinvestigation.

18

Direct samples were taken from various areas of the windings. The results indicatedDP
valuesrangingfrom250to570.
Fromthisitcanbeseenthatoilreplacementhasalargeimpactinthechangeinconcentration
offurans(2FAL).Lotsofinformationgetsdistortedandcannotberecoveredinashortperiod
oftime.

CaseStudyNo.2
Two80MVAsisterunitsinstalledatthesamesubstationfailedon3May2007afterthey
weresubjectedtoanetworkfault.ThesetwotransformersweremanufacturedbyGECin
1977.TheothernameplateinformationisshowninTable3below.
Table3:Nameplateinformation
Voltage
VectorGroup
Frequency
OilVolume

132/66/22kVautotransformer
Yyn0d1
50Hz
30000L

Ageassessmentthatwasdoneapproximately4.5yearspriortothefailureindicatedthe
following:
Table4:Extractsfromtheageassessmentreports
7282/2

7282/1

590

650

0.09

0.08

0.0507

0.027

Colour

2.5

Estimated
remaininglife

76%

80%

DP
calculated
furans
Acidinoil
Tandelta

value
from

Remarks
TheFuraniccontentindicatessignificant
paperdeteriorationbutstillwellaway
fromthecriticalpointfor7282/2and
mildtominimalpaperageingfor7282/1
Highaciditylevelsbutnotyetcritical
forbothunits.
Thisisstillwithinthespecificationlevel
oflessthan0.15
Thecolourgradingindicatesoxidation
onbothunitsbutjustbelowthelimitof
lessthan2.5for7282/1
Transformershaveonlylostlessthan
30%oforiginallifeinthepast25years

19

Ageing graph
1000
900
800
700

DP Value

600

7282/2 DP (furans)
7282/1DP (furans)
7282/2DP (direct)

500

7282/1DP (direct)
end of life

400
300
200
100
0
1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

2017

2022

2027

2032

time in years

Figure4:TrendsofDPvaluesbasedonfuransandondirectmethod
Forboththeseunitstheonlyavailabledata,intermsoftheageassessmentreports,wasfor
the year 2002. After the units were sent to the workshop, following their failure, paper
samplesweretakenduringtheteardowninordertodeterminetheDPvalueusingthedirect
method.
Assumingalinearageing,theDPvaluesbasedontheindirectmethodwerecalculatedfor
bothunitsattheyearoffailure(2007).Thiswasdonetocomparetheresultsofthesetwo
methodsatthesameageofthetransformers.TheinitialDPvalueof910isbasedonthe
EskomlaboratoryreportsthatspecifyDPvalueupto910,beyondthat.TheDPvalueis
indicatedas>910,whichisalsotheaccepteduppervalueintheavailableliterature.
ThecalculatedDPvaluesforboth7282/1and7282/2attheyearoffailurewere600and530
respectively.Theresultsfromthedirectmethodshowedthatfor7282/1theminimumDP
valuewas328andfor7282/2,theminimumDPvaluewas465.Fromthesecalculationsand
measurements,itisobservedthattheindirectmethodgaveanoverestimationofabout83%
for7282/1and14%for7282/2.
Thedeviationbetweenthetwomethodsasobservedin7282/2iswithinanacceptablerange
intheviewoftheauthorofthisreport.Suchadeviationisjustifiedtakingintoconsideration
thattheindirectmethodgivesanaveragevalueofageingasopposedtotheactualvalueofthe
directmethod.Thedeviationasseenin7282/1isverywide.
Suchawidedeviationcanbeattributedtooilprocessingthatmighthavetakenplaceduring
thelifeofthistransformer,andnorecordscouldbefoundtojustifythis.
Fromthiscasestudytwoobservationsaremade.Thefirstoneisthattheindirectmethodcan
give results that are very close to the direct method i.e. within +20% (which the author
assumestobethemaximumdeviationnolimitisspecifiedintheliterature)oftheactualDP
value,givenbythedirectmethod,asinthecaseof7282/2.

20

Itisalsopossiblethatsuchgoodresultswereobtainedbecausetheweakestspotwasmissed
whenthephysicalpapersamplewastakenforthedirectmethod.Thesecondobservationis
thattheresultsfromtheindirectmethodcanalsobeveryinaccurateasseenin7282/1.Sucha
widedeviationisconcludedtobeduetooilprocessingand/oroilchangeduringservicelife,
orbecausetheweakestspotwasmissedduringtheacquiringofthepapersampleforthe
directmethodsmeasurement.

CHAPTER5CONCLUSIONSAND
RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1Conclusions
Itisnotpossibletoobtainan100%accurateDPvaluefromfurananalysisasanindicationof
themostagedspotoftheinsulation.TheDPvalueobtainedfromthefurananalysis(indirect
method)willtendtooverestimatetheremaininglifeofthetransformer.Thisisbecausethe
2FALconcentrationthatisobtainedfromtheinsulatingoilistheaverageofallageingrates,
atvariouswindingblockpositions,andisnotavaluefromthehotspotorfromthemostaged
spot.Thedegreeofinaccuracywillalsodependmostlyontheexternalfactorsthathave
influencedtheconcentrationofthemainfurancomponent,2FAL,e.g.oilreplacement.
Therefore the use of 2FAL concentration in isolation of the history and design of a
transformer,i.e.todeterminewhatprocessesdidtheoilundergoandwhattypeofinsulation
paperisinatransformer,willyieldaveryweakconclusionintermsoftheremaininglife.
Thesearenottobeoverlookedduringatransformerlifeassessment.
Correlation exists between the 2FAL concentration in oil and the DP value of a paper
insulation.Mathematicalmodelsforthiscorrelationhavebeensuccessfullydevelopedtoa
certaindegreeofaccuracy,andapplicationofeachmodelislimitedbycertainassumptions.
FromthediscussioninChapter3,theauthorconcludesthattheChendongmodelcanbeused
foranytransformer,irrespectiveofthetypeofinsulationpaperandwhetheratransformeris
freebreathingornot,andresultswithleastinaccuracywillbeobtained.Howeveroilhistory
muststillbetracedevenwhenusingthismodel.
Theindirectmethodisusedbecauseofitsnonintrusivenessratherthanbecauseitgivesatrue
reflectionoftheresiduallifeinthetransformer.Thiscanbeseenfromthecasestudies.The
indirectmethodhasstillmanyuncertaintiesanddynamicswhichmustberesearched.
Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto
Thestabilityof2FALinoilintermsoftemperatureandtime

1
2

Theperiodsittakesaftertheoilprocessingtohavea2FALconcentrationthatisa
truerepresentationoftheageingprocess
3
Whatlevelofinaccuracyisacceptedwhenusingindirectmethodandwhy.

The integrity of 2FAL, in terms of stability, taking into consideration the recent
discoveriese.g.chemicalinjectionfortheprocessofpassivatingthecorrosivesulphurinoil.
ThishasprovedtoaffecttheDGApattern
Theadvantagewiththeindirectmethodisthatifitidentifiesaproblem(verylowDPvalue),
a problem definitely exists, however, problems can escape identification because it is an
averagevalueanddoesnotpinpointtheweakestspot.Useoffuranicanalysistodeterminethe
DPvalueisnotanaccuratemethodifthisisdonepurelybymathematicalmodels.

21

Knowledgeofthetransformerdesign(papertype),dominatingageingfactor,andoilhistory
isrequiredtoreducethedegreeofinaccuracyortobringmoreunderstandingoftheobtained
results.
Thesemodels(fortheindirectmethod)canbeapplied,whenintegratedwithunderstandingof
thetransformerdesignandhistoryofthetransformerservicelife,togetreliableestimationof
the DP value. In order to use the indirect method and make as accurate as possible
conclusions,somerecommendationsaremadeinthenextsection.

5.2Recommendations

Atthetimeofdispatchingthetransformerfromthefactory,theDPvalue,usingthe
directmethod,mustbedeterminedortheaccepted910DPvaluemustbeusedastheinitial
DPvalue.BoththeArrheniuss(equation1)andChemDuponts(equation2)modelscan
thenbeusedtocalculatethelostlifewhentheunitisinservice.Thedifferencebetweenthe
lostlifeandoriginalDPvalueisthentheestimatedremaininglife.

Theothermodelscanbeusedforthesameexercise;however,thetransformermust
havenotundergoneoilreplacement/processingatleastforthepreviousfiveyears.Thereisno
strongconclusioninliteratureintermsofthis5yearsperiod.

Thechoiceofmathematicalmodelusedmustbebasedontheunderstandingofthe
transformerdesignintermsofthepaperused(TUornormalkraft),andonthedominating
ageingfactori.e.thermaloroxidation.TheChendongsmodelisrecommended.

Itmustbetakenintoaccountwhentakingdecisions,basedontheDPvaluecalculated
fromtheconcentrationoffurans(indirectmethod),thattheactualremaininglifeisless.The
degreeofinaccuracyisexpectedtoincreasewiththeageoftheunitasmoreexternalfactors
wouldhavecreptin.

CHAPTER6REFERENCESANDBIBLIOGRAPHY
6.1References

[1] TK,ReviewofModernDiagnosticTechniquesforAssessingInsulationConditioninAged
Transformers. IEEE Transaction on Dielectrics and Electrical insulation, Vol. 10, No. 5;
October2003

[2] Cheim L Dr. , Dupont C, On the Correlation Between 2Furfural and DP A New
TransformerAgeingModel.DobleEngineeringCompany,2004.

[3] PahlavanpourB(Prof.),EklundM(Dr.),ThermalAgeingofMineralInsulatingOiland
KraftsPaper,NynasNaphthenicsAB,SE14982Nynashamn,Sweden

[4] PrevostTA,GasserHP,WicksR,GlennB,DuPontRM, EstimationofInsulationLife

BasedonaDualTemperatureAgingModel. WeidmannACTIInc.FifthAnnualTechnical
ConferenceAlbuquerque,NMNov.13152006.

[5] Griffin PI, Assessment of Paper and Other Cellulosic Materials in ServiceAged
Transformers.DobleEngineeringCompany,PresentationatSoutheasternElectricExchange,
June24,1999.

22

[6] Lewand LR. Practical Experience Gained from Furanic Compound Analysis. Doble
EngineeringCompany.200673rdAnnualInternationalDobleClientConference.

[7] McShaneCP,RappKJ,CorkranJL,GaugerGA,LuksichJ,AgingofPaperInsulationin
Natural Ester Dielectric Fluid. IEEE Transmission and Distribution Conference &
Exposition,Oct28Nov.02,2001,AtlantaGA.

6.2Bibliography

[1] PradhanMK,RamuTS,DiagnosticTestingofOilImpregnatedPaperInsulationinPro

ratedPowerTransformersunderAcceleratedStress. ConferenceRecordofthe2004IEEE
InternationalSymposiumofElectricalInsulation,Indianapolis,INUSA,1922September
2004.

[2] Hohlein I, Kachler AJ, Impact of Moisture on DP of Solid Insulation and Furan
DevelopmentinOilatTransformerServiceTemperatures.CigreSession2004,D1309.

[3] Koch M, Prof Dr.Ing. Dr.h.c. Feser K, Reliability and Influences on Dielectric
DiagnosticMethodstoEvaluatetheAgeingStateofOilPaperInsulation.

[4] WeidmannPresentation,Furans.
[5] SparlingBD.AssessingtheLifeoftheTransformer.GESyprotecInc.April2004.
[6] DePabloA,MollmannA.NewGuidelinesforFuranAnalysisAsWellAsDissolvedGas
AnalysisinOilFilledTransformers.Cigre1996:15/21/3319.

[7] LombardAE,DegreeofPolymerization,EskomGenerationFlyer
[8] LombardAE,Furanics,EskomGenerationFlyer.
[9] LapworthJ,WilsonA. TransformerLifeManagement. ADoblepresentationduringthe
IEEEconferenceatWitsUniversityinJohannesburg.July2007

[10]

LoadingGuideforOilImmersedPowerTransformers.IEC600767(2005)

23