Techniques of Forecasting of Human resource

Requirements
Demand forecast Techniques:
1. Management Judgement :
2. Expert forecasts:
3.

Human resources forecasting involves projecting labour needs

and the effects theyll have on a business.
An HR department forecasts both short- and long-term
staffing needs based on projected sales, office growth, attrition
and other factors that affect a companys need for labor. In
addition to forecasting the number and type of workers, HR
planning includes analyzing the various costs and
administrative work that go along with adding workers or
downsizing.
Requirement: something that is needed or that must be
done. : something that is necessary for something else to
happen or be done.
Demand forecast Techniques:
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The techniques are available for forecasting human

resource demand.
They are:
Management Judgment
Expert forecasts
statistical analysis
other methods
(1)

Management Judgement :

It is based on the judgment of management. it is based on

rule of thumb.(A rule of thumb is a principle with broad
application that is not intended to be strictly accurate or
reliable for every situation)The estimation of human
resource demand based on:
1. top down approach :
Top management prepares the estimation of
requirements and send information to lower level.
2. Bottom up approach
3. Participative approach
(2)

Expert forecasts:
1 Survey
2 Delphi techniques: It is pooling up judgments
and opinions about estimates of future human

resource requirements from a group of experts.

The experts are contracted.
3 Nominal group techniques: Experts sit face to
face and in second stage they work as inter
acting group to evaluate the ideas.
(3)
Statistical Analysis:
a)Trend analysis : Projects past trends
Extrapolation:
In mathematics, extrapolation is the process of
estimating, beyond the original observation
range, the value of a variable on the basis of its
relationship with another variable
past rate of change are extended into future.
Last year 50 employees were employed,
extrapolation will forecast the need for do
workers for the coming years.
Indexation:
Linking of a quantity to the rate of change in another
quantity or factor, as measured through an index. For
example, increases in government spending, interest
rates, wages,
etc.,
are
often
linked
to
the general price level as measured through consumer
price index (CPI): as the CPI increases or decreases,
the linked spending, interest rate, or wage increases or
decreases automatically. Compare with indexing.
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A particular index is used to forecast the future
demand of Rhone worker may be required for
500000 increase in sales. It is based on existing
rates of activities.
Regression analysis;
In statistics, regression analysis is a statistical
process for estimating the relationships among
variables.
Simple linear and multiple linear analysis is use .
Projection of future demand of her is based on
past relationships between variables.
Econometrics:
The application of statistical and mathematical
theories to economics for the purpose of testing
hypotheses and forecasting future trends.
This is based on analysis of movements in
various variables affecting human resource
needs.Variavles can be: sales, production, work
load ect.Relationship among variables is
mathematically described. Computers are used
for preparing econometric models.
b) Markov Analysis:

A method used to forecast the value of a variable

whose future value is independent of its past
history.
Statistical technique used in forecasting the
future behavior of a variable or system whose current
state or behavior does not depend on its state or
behavior at any time in the past in other words, it
is random.
It is a flow model for forecasting internal human
resource needs. It tracks past human resource
movements to project future needs.
o Determine time horizon
o Establish categories to which employees can be
assigned. It should not be overlapped. They can
be promoted transferred can resign and
terminate.
o Count annual flows or movements among
categories for several time period.
o Estimate the probality of transitions from one
category to another based on past trends. Demand
for HR is a function of replacing those who male
a transition.
o This method relies heavily on past oriented data.
c)Work study techniques
It is based on work measurement . It indicates how
much time has taken for the said task. Work standards
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The technique is systematic and it is concerned with

efficiency and economy in human work. It is divided
into two relative activities, namely method study and
work measurement. The former is concerned with the
identification and development of improved methods
and systems, while the latter is the technique used to
measure and assess human effectiveness.
Planned production
100000 units
Standard hours per units
2 hours
yearly standard hours 200000 hours
Productive hours per man year 2000 hours
Number of workers required 100

Work study techniques

This has been defined as:
"The systematic recording and critical examination of
existing and proposed ways of doing work, as a means
of developing and applying easier and more effective
methods and costs".
The objectives are:
The elimination of unnecessary movements.
The arrangement of the sequence of motions in
their most efficient order.
Method study can be usefully applied in planning
layouts, for example, kitchen, restaurant, bar, etc., and
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also in organising work procedures, for example the

method of cleaning a room, preparing dishes, etc.
There are six basic steps in a method study
investigation, which will be discussed -below:
Select the job to be studied (identify the problem).
There are three factors which are involved here,
economic, technical and human.
The first factor is concerned with finance, as Work
Study is an expensive and time consuming activity, the
gains which are realised may not necessarily exceed
the costs of the study. This, will of course, depend on
whether the savings are monetary instead of improved
conditions or improved morale, and whether the
investigation is a long term project.
The second factor is concerned with products or
processes and whether, technically, there are reasons
why a job has to be done in a particular way.
The third factor is probably the most critical.. There
may be reaction from the workforce whatever the
merits of the investigation. The timing is crucial. An
investigation should not be started at a time of unrest,
end it is necessary to avoid building up resistance or
else the study will be sabotaged.
The important factors regarding the selection of jobs
are:
What .is the problem, has it been identified, is it the
right one?
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Is the time right and has it been communicated

adequately?
Record the Facts About the Job
This step involves the recording of the facts about the
present method as
observed. Charts and diagrams are built up and used to
follow two areas, sequence and movement.
The principle sequence types are:
Outline process chart - this gives a broad picture
using only operation and inspection symbols.
Flow process chart - this is more detailed and uses
all symbols. It can represent man, material or
equipment type.
Two handed process chart - records the hands or
limbs of an operative in relationship to one another.

Further charts include the multi-activity chart and the

simultaneous motion cycle charts (Simo charts).
The movement of men and materials is recorded in the
following way to detect congestion, backtracking and
excessive journeys:
Flow diagram - this is a process chart which is
superimposed on a scale plan of the working area.
String diagram - this again uses a scale plan of the
area and records more complex paths of movement. (If
two or more objects are involved, the flow diagram is
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no longer useful). A continuous length of string is

threaded around terminal, points, which represent the
places to which the operatives or materials need to go.
This shows areas of high activity and the distance
travelled.

Other forecasting methods:

A )New venture Analysis
New Venture Analysis is a unique and
indispensable tool for entrepreneurs that are
planning a new business venture.
HR needs for new venture are estimated in
line with the needs of organizations that
perform similar operations.
B)Mathematical Model:

mathematical model is a description of a

system using mathematical concepts and
language
It is based on mathematics and can be
various for forecasting human resource
needs.
C )Computer simulations :

A computer simulation is a simulation, run

on a single computer, or a network of
computers, to reproduce behavior of a
system. They are used to create future
scenarios.
This is a complete online workbook that
introduces
the
use
of computer
simulations in applied social research
designs.

Read
more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/
definition/Markovanalysis.html#ixzz34JpE7Fv1

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more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definitio
n/indexation.html#ixzz34JiE6rCk
Human Resource Development in Nepal,Dr. Govind
Ram Agrawal(2013)Mk publishers and
distributors,Bhotahiti , Kathmandu, Nepal

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