Project Risk Management: A Preparation Guide For The PMI-RMP Exam

23/05/2014
Project Risk Management

A Preparation Guide for the PMI-RMP Exam
Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP
Overview
23/05/2014
What is Risk Management?

Project risk management is actively managing the risks on your project
The goal of risk management is to be more proactive and less reactive
The objectives of Project Risk management are to increase the probability &
impact of positive events (opportunities), and decrease the probability &
impact of events adverse to the project (threats)
What is risk?
A risk is an uncertain event that could have a positive or negative effect on your
project
* This means there is a probability between 1-99% that the event could occur
If there is a 0% chance of an event occurring, there is no risk
(example; there is a 0% chance your project will be adequately funded, this is not
a risk, it is a reality)
If there is a 100% chance of an event occurring, this would be an issue, not a risk
Risks with negative consequences are called threats
Risks with positive consequences are called opportunities (Yes, risk can be good!
Stop thinking of risk as bad, and start thinking of it in terms of probabilities!)
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Unknown / knowns Risk

Known risks
Those that are identified and can be proactively managed & analyzed
Unknown risks (unknown knowns & unknown unknowns)

Cannot be proactively managed
Types of Risk
Risks can be broken out into two primary types
Pure Risk risk with potential loss only
ex. Fire, theft, personal injury
Business Risk (speculative risk) risk with potential loss or gain
ex. A highly skilled employee becomes available to work on your project,
reducing your schedule time, the tax rate changes, a new server costs less
(or more) than you budgeted for
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Considerations
Look for risks caused by things like poor project management, dependency
on uncontrollable external resources, concurrent multiple projects, etc.
Accept risks if they're in balance with a possible reward
Communicate about risk information openly & honestly
Provide risk responses in line with the organization's perceived balance

between risk-taking &risk-avoidance
To be successful, an organization should be committed to addressing the

management of risk proactively & consistently throughout the project
Who should be involved ..?
Project sponsor
Management
Project manager
Project team
Procurement deparment
Marketing deparment
Other deparment
Salespeople
Legal counsel
Project manager of previous,
similar projects
Customer
Customers competition
End users
Suppliers and vendors
Expert
Public
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Where to find them ..?
Project constraints
Assumptions
WBS
Network Diagram
Plans
Resource
Communications
Quality
Procurement
Organizational Process Assets

Historical Records from previous projects
Lessons learned from previous projects
Risk tolerance areas
What you need before You can

Effectively begin risk management?
by Rita Mulcahy
23/05/2014
Risk identified
Plan for how
and who will be
involved in risk
management
Short list of
risk through
qualitative and
quantitative
analysis
Potential risk
owners
Triggers
Potential
response
plans
Risks
eliminated by
changing the
project
management
plan
Additional
wachtlist items
What to do if an
identified risk
ocurrs:
contingency
plans
Probability
and impacts
reduced by
changing the
project
management
plan
What to do if
the contingency
plan is no
effective:
fallback plans
Residual risks
Risk that arise

from risk
response:
secondary risks
Risk
register
Time and cost

reserves
Final Project
management plan
Risk monitoring
and control
People to wacht
over each risk:
risk owners
Wachtlist of
non-top risks
Risk Management Processes
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There are six project risk management processes
Plan Risk Management

Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative Analysis
Perform Quantitative Analysis
Plan Risk Response
Monitor & Control Risks

Risk Planning this is how you plan on conducting risk management. You
wouldnt start managing your project without a plan, so why would you
approach risk management that way?
* Remember Plan the work, and work the plan? Applies to risk
management as well.
Identify Risks this is the phase where you attempt to identify most of your
risks
Qualitative analysis this is a subjective analysis of your risks that produces
a risk ranking, usually in the order of high, medium, low, or on an ordinal
scale. Rankings are by agreement of your project team, sponsors and key
stakeholders.
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Quantitative Analysis a numerical analysis of the probability and impact of
the risk on your project
Plan Risk Response a course of action you will take to deal with your risks
should they go from risk to issue
Monitor & Control Risks monitoring your lists (there are two lists which I
will discuss later) of risks to enact a risk response plan, to move a risk from
one list to the other, or to remove a risk because it is no longer a risk
Risk Management Planning
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Objectives
Create a plan for handing risk management for the project
Adapt any policies and procedure for risk to the needs of the project
Tailor risk management activities to the needs of the project to make sure the level,
type, and visibility of activities are commensurate with:
The type an size of the project
The experience of the project team
The importance of the project to the organization

Metrics
The number of unidentified risks that occurred in a reporting period
The number of times risk owners were not prepared to handle an identified risk
The amount of extra reserve requested
The number of fallback plans that needed to be implemented
Etc
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Before you start dealing with risks, you should first plan on how you will handle risk on
your project
Things to consider when creating your Risk Management plan
The risk tolerance of your project sponsors and stakeholders In order to gain buy-in,
you need to create a plan your sponsors can support. It is not likely they will support
a plan that is in opposition to their agenda or is out of their comfort zone
The size and value of your project there is a cost to risk management, you shouldnt
spend more on preventing the risk than the cost of the risk occurring
The methodology you will use the methodology you use is not as important as
gaining agreement and buy-in on the methodology chosen
Sources of risk risk categories; think of all possible areas or events that could
introduce risk to your project

Inputs to Risk Management Planning
Enterprise environmental factors company culture or existing systems the
project will have to deal with or can make use of
Organizational process assets processes, procedures, and historical
information
Project scope statement statement of what the project shall deliver and
what it should not deliver (if you dont know what the scope of your project
is, can you really identify all areas of risk?)
Project management plan the guide on how you will manage your project
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Inputs to Risk Management Planning
Cost Management Plan The guide on how you and your team will control
costs on the project to try to stay within budget
Schedule Management Plan The guide on how you and your team will
manage the schedule of the project
Communications Management Plan -The guide on who you need to
communicate to, what information, how it needs to be communicated and
how often

Tools and Techniques
Planning meeting and analysis
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Outputs of Risk Management Planning
Risk Management Plan
- Methodology
- Roles & Responsibilities
- Budgeting
- Timing
- Risk Categories
- Definitions of risk & impact
- Stakeholder tolerances
- Reporting formats
- Tracking

Chart of Responsabilities
Sponsor
Project Manager
Risk team
Team
Risk Owner
Other Stakeholders
Identify Risks
Perform Quanlitative Risk

Analysis
As needed
As needed
As needed
Perform Quantitative Risk

Analysis
Plan Risk Response
Monitor and Control Risk
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Confusing Terms
Risk rating: is a number between 1 and 10 chosen to evaluate the probability
or impact of the risk.
Risk score for each risk: to calculate this, you multiply probability times
impact. This gives you a numerical value for each risk. That value is then
compared to other risks in the project to determine the risk ranking for
each risk within the project.
Risk score for the project: To obtain the project risk score, you add up the risk
scores for each risk in the project.
Risk ranking within the project: to rank risks, you compare the risk scores for
all the risk. The risk with the hightest risk score becomes the hightest
ranking risk, the next hightest becomes second, etc
Risk ranking compared to other projects:
Identify Risks
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Identify Risks
Objectives
Identify and record a long list of threats and opportunities for the project
and by work package; long means hundreds of risks.
Make sure all risk are in the cause-risk-effcet format
Understand the risk
Identify Risks
This is the phase where you work with your team to identify as many risks as
possible
Things to remember
Identify Risks cant be completed without the project scope statement and
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
Identify Risks happens at the onset of the project and throughout the project
Risks can be identified at any time and during any phase of the project
Risk management is an iterative process, you should work to identify risk
during any changes to the project, working with resources, and when dealing
with issues
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Identify Risks
Inputs to identify risks
Project Chapter
Outputs from project planning
List of common risk categories
Historical records and project documents
Stakeholder register
Identify Risks
Methods of documenting Risk
Forms
Checklists
Sticky notes
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Identify Risks
Techniques to identify risk
Brainstorming - the free-flow of ideas on risk, done with the project team,
stakeholders, subject matter experts, and experienced resources
Delphi technique an anonymous surveying of experts in which information
is sent to a group of experts on the risk. The experts each provide input, the
responses are compiled and then sent back to all of the experts for further
review; the process is repeated until consensus is reached.
Interviewing interviews of experts, project stakeholders, or associates who
have worked on similar projects in order to discover risks
Assumptions & constraints Analysis what assumptions have you made or
been given about your project? Are they valid? If not, you could have risk
Identify Risks
Root Cause Analysis Determining the cause of the risk; you might be able
to identify more risks this way or you might be able to eliminate the risk by
eliminating the cause
SWOT Analysis An analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities
and threats on your project
Checklist Analysis after you have identified your categories of potential
risks on your project, you create a checklist of these categories to make sure
youre not neglecting any area where risk can hide
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Identify Risks
Document review
FMEA / Fault tree analysis
Force field analysis
Industry knowledge base
Influence diagrams
Nominal group technique
Post project review / lessons learned / historical information
Identify Risks
Prompt lists
Questionaire
RBS
Cause and effect diagrams
System dynamics
WBS review
* Whenever possible, deal with the cause, not the effect
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Risk Factors
When analyzing your risk, you should be aware of the following risk factors
-
The probability the risk will occur
The range of possible outcomes - Impact (consequence)
Expected timing, when in the project lifecycle the risk is likely to occur
* once the expected timeframe of the risk has passed and it is no

longer a risk, it can be removed from the risk list
-
Frequency or the event, how often the risk is expected to occur on the
project
Identify Risks
Outputs of Identify Risks
Risk Register
- List of risks
- List of potential responses
- Root causes of risks
- Updated risk categories
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Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

You need analytical skills

Objectives
Determinate which risks warrant a response.
Subjectively evaluate the probability and impact of each risk
Create a short list of risks by determining the top or critical risks that you will
process to Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis and / or Plan Risk Response
process
Make a go/no-go decision
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This is the phase where you rank the risks youve identified from Identify Risks
to come up with a list of risks you will create plans for dealing with
Things to remember
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is subjective
What is the probability of the risk occurring? High, medium, low? 1-10?
What is the impact if the risk does occur? High, medium, low? 1-10? What is
the financial impact, are the consequences positive or negative?
* the earlier you know about risk, the better prepared you will be

Inputs to Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Risk register (list of potential risks)
Project scope statement
Project type and an understanding of the work needed to complete the
project.
Data about the risks to be used during this step to measure their precision
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Inputs to Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Assumptions to test
Scales for probability and impact (if they are standardized for you
department or company)
Historical records how were similar risks qualified in the past?

Tools and Techniques of Qualitative Analysis
Probability & Impact Matrix a matrix that creates a consistent evaluation
of high, medium, or low for your projects. This helps to make the risk rating
process more repeatable between projects.
Risk Data Quality Assessment What is the quality of the data used to
determine or assess the risk? Think about the following
Extent of the understanding of the risk
Data available about the risk
Quality of the data
Reliability & Integrity of the data
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Tools and Techniques of Qualitative Analysis
Risk Categorization Which of your categories has more risk than others?
Which of your work packages could be most affected by risk?
Risk Urgency Assessment Which of your risks could occur soon, or require
a longer planning time? Risk urgency assessment helps move these risks
more quickly through the rest of the project management process
* Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is subjective

Outputs of Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Risk Register Updates
Risk ranking for the project compared to other projects
List of prioritized risks and their probability and impact ratings
Risks grouped by categories
List of risks requiring additional analysis in the near term
List of risks for additional analysis and response
Watchlist (non-critical risks)
Trends
Go / no-go decision
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Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis can help you determine the following
Which risks need to move on to Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis?
Which of your projects should be selected when compared with other
projects?
* You have two projects available and you can only complete one of them,
both projects are projected to have the same benefit, but the qualitative risk
score for one of the projects is higher than the other, would you want to
know this before you decided which project you would work on?
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

You need analytical and mathematical skills
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Objectives
Changes to numerically analyzing the probability and impact of each risk and
analyzing the extent of overall project risk.
Translate subjective risk score to objective risk score.
Calculate specific time and cost impacts of each risk

This is the phase of risk management where you conduct a numerical analysis of
the probability and impact of the risks with the highest risk rating score
determined from qualitative analysis
Things to remember
Quantitative analysis is used to.
Determine which of your risks should have a response plan
Determine overall project risk
Determine the probability of delivering your project objectives
Should be repeated after the Plan Risk Response process to determinate if
the lower amount of risk in the project is within the acceptable project time
and cost requirements
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Things to remember
Determine cost and schedule reserves
Identify risks that will require more planning
Create more realistic and achievable cost, schedule, or scope goals

Inputs to Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Risk register
Prioritized risks from Perform Qualitative Analysis process
List of risks carried forward for additional analysis
Historical records how were similar risks quantified in the past?

Output from other parts of project planning, including the cost management
plan, and schedule management plan
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Tools and Techniques of Quantitative Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis Which risks will have the most impact on the project?
Monte Carlo Analysis A technique that uses simulation to show the
probability of completing your project on time and within budget.
Determines the overall risk of the project, not the task
Determines the probability of completing the project on a specific day and for a
specific cost
Takes into account path convergence (places in the network diagram where many
paths converge into one activity)
Used to evaluate the impact to your schedule and budget
Due to the complicated mathematical computations used, Monte Carlo analysis is
usually done with a computer program
Creates a probability distribution triangular, normal, beta, uniform or lognormal
(learn these)
* Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is a numerical analysis

EMV Expected Monetary Value What is the probability of the risk occurring
multiplied by the impact if the risk does occur? If the risk occurs, what could the
financial or time loss be to your project?
In the example below, this project has an EMV of ($58,250), this means that you
need to put aside $58,250 in your risk reserve account for potential risks
Risk
Probability
Impact
EMV
20%
$ (100,000.00)
$(20,000.00)
90%
10,000.00
$ 9,000.00
5%
30,000.00
$ 1,500.00
65%
$ (75,000.00)
$(48,750.00)
Total
$(58,250.00)
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Decision Tree used for planning on individual risks instead of planning for
the whole project
Takes into account future events to make a decision today
Can calculate the EMV in more complex situations
Involves mutual exclusivity
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Decision Tree
Setup Cost
Make
Buy
Cost/Unit
Units Needed
Cost for Units
Defects/Unit
Defect
Cost
Total Cost
$200,000
$27.50
500,000
$13,750,000
20/10,000
$1,375.00
$13,951,375
$0
$30.00
500,000
$15,000,000
10/10,000
$1,500
$15,001,500
* It is cheaper to make the units rather than buying them

Outputs of Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Risk Register Updates
Prioritized list of quantified risks
Amount needed for contingency reserves for time and cost
Confidence levels of completing the project on a certain date for a
certain amount of money
The probability of delivering the project objectives
Trends - risk management is an iterative process; as you repeat the
process you can track your overall project risk and determine the trend
(if you are decreasing or increasing the level of risk on your project)
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Plan Risk Response

You need creativity
Plan Risk Response

Objectives
Determinate what can be done to reduce the overall risk of the project by
decresing the probability and impact of threat and increasing the probability
and impact of opportunities.
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Plan Risk Response

This is the phase of risk management where you decide how you will respond to
your most important risks
Risk Response Strategies
Threats
Avoid remove the cause of the risk so that it never materializes
Mitigate reduce the probability and or impact of the risk
Transfer transfer the risk to another party; usually done with insurance,
performance bonds, warranties, guarantees or outsourcing the work.
Opportunities
Exploit make sure the opportunity occurs, you can add work or make a
change to the project
Enhance increase the probability and or positive impact of the risk
Share share the opportunity with a third party to be able to take advantage
of the opportunity
Plan Risk Response

Risk Response Strategies
For both Threats & Opportunities
Accept
Active acceptance preparing a contingency reserve of cost or time
reserves in case the risk does happen
Passive acceptance preparing for the dealing with the effects of the risk
after the risk has occurred
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Plan Risk Response

Inputs to Plan Risk Response
Risk register
List of prioritized risks
Ranking of the project risks
Risk scores and expected monetary values of top risk
Potential risk owners
Wacthlist
Plan Risk Response

Inputs to Plan Risk Response
Forecast or potential schedule and cost for the project
Monte Carlo Analysis probability of achieving the project objectives
Historical records about risk responses from past projects and common risk
causes
Risk thresholds
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Plan Risk Response

Tools and Techniques of Plan Risk Response
Brainstorming
Check list
Contingency planning
Contingency reserve estimation
Critical chain project management (CCPM)
Decision Tree Analysis
Delphi Technique
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
Plan Risk Response

Force Field Analysis
Industry knowledge base
Interviews
Nominal Group Technique
Multi-criterion selection techniques
Post project review / lessons learned / historical information
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Plan Risk Response

Prompt Lists
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Root-Cause Analysis
Scenario Analysis
Plan Risk Response

Outputs of Risk Response Planning
Project Management Plan Updates Changes made due to risk
management will be changes made to the project and should be updated in
the project management plan
Updates to Risk Register
Residual Risks risks that are left over after Plan Risk Response
Secondary Risks new risks that result from the implementation of the
contingency plans for the primary risks
Contingency Plans plans of action in case the risk does occur
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Plan Risk Response

Risk Owner the person on the team responsible for monitoring the risk,
risk triggers, developing a response strategy, and implementing the
strategy should the risk occur
Risk Action Owners the person will implement preapproved risk
response, leaving the risk owner with the responsibility of ensuring that
risk response is effective
Risk Triggers early warning signs that there is a high probability the risk
will occur
Fallback Plans a secondary contingency plan, in case the contingency
plan does not work or is not effective
Plan Risk Response

Workaround
Reserves
Contingency reserves - covers the cost for known unknowns discovered
during risk management; covers the residual risks. The contingency
reserve is calculated and made part of the baseline.
Management reserves these are estimated and made part of the
project budget, not the baseline. Management approval is needed to
use the management reserve.
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Plan Risk Response

Calculate reserves
Percent
Guess
EVM
Montecarlo Simulation
Monitor and Control Risks
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Objectives
Implement the risk response plans, ensure compliance, and manage progress
Manage the contingency and management reserves
Create workarounds
Control de project risk
Refine and update the risk register
Perform additional risk identification, qualitative and quantitative risk
analysis, and risk response planning
Reestimate the project

This is the phase of risk management where you monitor the risk list for risks
that have a higher probability of affecting your project, and the risk watchlist
for risks that could change and should either be added to the risk list or
removed from the watchlist
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Things to Know
Workaround a response to a risk that has occurred when no contingency
plan exists
Risk audit a team of experienced project team members reviews the risk
management process and response strategies to see if youve effectively
identified the major risks on the project and developed effective strategies
for dealing with them
Risk Reassessment Risk management is iterative, you should review the
risks on your project throughout the project to update their qualitative and
quantitative values
* the earlier you know about risk, the better prepared you will be

Things to Know
Status meetings status meetings should be used to identify new risks or
changes to existing risks. This is a great opportunity to discuss with your
team and stakeholders existing risks and new risks
Reserve analysis has the reserve kept up with changes to the risk list? Does
the reserve still cover the costs of these risks should they occur?
Closing of risks Risks are expected to happen during a particular phase of
the project. When that phase has passed and the risk is no longer probable,
the risk should be removed from the risk list and any reserve associated
should be freed up
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Inputs to Monitor and Control Risks

Risk Register
Risks
Risk response plans
Risk owners
Triggers
Contracts
Wachtlist
Time and cost reserves

Inputs to Monitor and Control Risks

Work results
Project communications
Risk events
Project changes
Additional risk that have been identified as the project progresses
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Outputs of Monitor & Control Risks
Outcomes of the risk reassessments and risk audits
Updates to previous parts of risk management
Closing of risks that are no longer applicable
Details of what happened when risks occurred
Lessons learned
Requested Changes
Recommended Corrective & Preventive Actions
Updates to the Project Management Plan
Organizational Process Assets Updates
Risk Governance
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Risk Governance
Its extends throughout the project.
Risk governance involves oversight of the entire risk management process, making
sure the risk management activities are consistent, and that they are continuously
improved throughout the organization.
This is responsibility may fall to:

Project Manager
PMO
Risk Management Department
Management of the Organization
Risk Governance
Standards, Policies, Procedures, and Practices
Organizational risk tolerances and thresholds

Methods to use identify risks
Definitions of impact ratings to be used in perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process
Standard probability and impact matrix
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Risk Governance
Creation of Metrics
Metrics are standards of performance that, once evaluated, tell how work is
performing against the Plan and help you to measure the progress and to warn of
potential problems.
Risk Governance involves the creation of metrics for risk management activities in
the Organization.
Risk Governance
Lessons Learned Management
To ensure that lessons learned related to risk management are captured on all
projects and then made available for use on other projects.
Should include:
What went right?
What went wrong?
What would be done differently if the project could be done again?
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Questions?
42

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23/05/2014

Project Risk Management

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

What is Risk Management?

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Unknown / knowns Risk

Unknown risks (unknown knowns & unknown unknowns)

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Accept risks if they're in balance with a possible reward

Communicate about risk information openly & honestly

Provide risk responses in line with the organization's perceived balance

To be successful, an organization should be committed to addressing the

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Who should be involved ..?

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Where to find them ..?

Organizational Process Assets

Risk tolerance areas

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

What you need before You can

Risk that arise

Time and cost

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Risk Management Processes

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Risk Management Processes

Plan Risk Management

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Risk Management Processes

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Risk Management Processes

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Risk Management Planning

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Risk Management Planning

Create a plan for handing risk management for the project

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Risk Management Planning

The number of unidentified risks that occurred in a reporting period

The amount of extra reserve requested

The number of fallback plans that needed to be implemented

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Risk Management Planning

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Plan Risk Management

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Plan Risk Management

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Plan Risk Management

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Plan Risk Management

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Plan Risk Management

Plan Risk Management

Perform Quanlitative Risk

Perform Quantitative Risk

Plan Risk Response

Monitor and Control Risk

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP

Elmer Zapata Ramrez, PMP, PMI -RMP