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T H E
I P O
A S
S T RA T E GI C
F I N A N C I N G
OP T I O N
exercise of their own judgement. Any opinions expressed in this material are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
Agenda
Page
2
12
39
T H E
I P O
A S
S T RA T E GI C
F I N A N C I N G
OP T I O N
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
F I N A N C I N G
AL T E R N A T I V E S
I N
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
Equity
Debt
Shares
Convertible Debt
Mezzanine
Bank loan
Leasing
ABS
Factoring
Bond
Investment Grade
High Yield
Leveraged Debt
Commercial Paper
Private Placement
Promissory note
USPP
F I N A N C I N G
AL T E R N A T I V E S
I N
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
Equity
COMMUNICATION
Liabilities
Short-term
Eigenkapital
assets
F I N A N C I N G
AL T E R N A T I V E S
I N
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
Long-term
assets
Verbindlichkeiten
Possible
financing
triggers
CAPEX financing
financing
CAPEX
Investments
Debt
Debt +
+ equity
equity
measures
measures
Acquisitions
Debt
Debt repayments
repayments
and
and strengthening
strengthening
of
of liquidity
liquidity
Divestiture
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
Euro High
Yield Bonds
Mezzanine
Euro Investment
Grade Bonds
Promissory Note
(Schuldschein)
Commercial Banks
US Private Placements
Leasing
closed
closed
On vacation
Early Christmas
vacation
Lunch break
Open 24/7
open
F I N A N C I N G
AL T E R N A T I V E S
I N
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
250
250
200
100.1
150
I N
100
AL T E R N A T I V E S
50
F I N A N C I N G
200
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
1
Volume
Volume and
and number
number of
of German
German corporate
corporate loans
loans by
by rating
rating class
class1
150
6.4
105.4
141.1
100
61.7
40.9
34.3
23.9
0
2006
50
3.3
1H2007
2H2007
4.6
5.3
1H2008
8.4
3.6
2H2008
AL T E R N A T I V E S
F I N A N C I N G
1,2
Volume
Volume and
and average
average price
price of
of USPPs
USPPs1,2
12
7.5
10
5.3
3.5
7.0
3.0
6.0
5.5
$ bn
8.0
5.0
200.0
2.0
5.4
2
1.0
0.7
0
2007
2008
0.0
200
150
137.8
136.3
121.9
3.2
109.0
3.0
2006
250
2.0
1.5
10.0
bps
2.5
4.0
I N
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
1
Volume
Volume and
and average
average coupon
coupon of
of bonds
bonds1
100
2.1
1.0
50
1.3
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.0
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Leasing
70
60
Business
Business cycle
cycle test
test for
for movables-leasing
movables-leasing
ifo business expectations
60
Volume property-leasing
50
40
50
30
40
30
44.3
44.9
50.3
56.3
20
10
F I N A N C I N G
2005
2006
2007
1H2008
(20)
09 2008
7.1
05 2008
7.1
01 2008
7.5
09 2007
5.7
05 2007
(10)
01 2007
10
09 2006
05 2006
20
01 2006
AL T E R N A T I V E S
I N
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
Development
Development of
of leasing
leasing volume
volume
Benefits
Benefits
Considerations
Considerations
Raise capital
investors
Increase financial and strategic flexibility
information
Increased corporate governance
Management/employee incentive
F I N A N C I N G
AL T E R N A T I V E S
I N
reporting
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
10
F I N A N C I N G
AL T E R N A T I V E S
I N
D I F F E R E N T
E N V I R O N M EN T
Objectives of an IPO
Selling shareholders
Company
Optimise
Optimiseproceeds
proceeds
Execute
Executeaasuccessful
successfuloffering
offering
Optimise
Optimisevalue
valueofofretained
retained
Raise
Raisecapital
capitalfor
forexpansion
expansionofof
the
thebusiness
business(if
(ifprimary)
primary)
ownership
ownership
Create
Createpositive
positivemarket
market
IPO
momentum
momentumfacilitating
facilitating
future
futureofferings
offerings
Establish
Establishattractive,
attractive,sustainable
sustainable
market
marketvaluation
valuation
Obtain
Obtainaabroad-based,
broad-based,
sophisticated
sophisticatedshareholder
shareholderbase
base
Broaden
Broadenshare
share
ownership/create
ownership/createliquidity
liquidity
for
forsubsequent
subsequentsales
sales
Raise
Raisecompany
companyprofile
profile
Investors
Secure good value
Establish sizeable holding
in company
Optimise share price
portfolio
Strong
Strongaftermarket
aftermarketperformance
performance
will
willfacilitate
facilitatefuture
futurefund
fund
raising
raisingand
andcorporate
corporateaction
action
Achieve
Achievebroad
broadresearch
research
sponsorship
sponsorship
Create
Createcapital
capitalstrength
strengthininthe
the
Company,
Company,benefiting
benefiting
commercial
commercialnegotiations
negotiationswith
with
customers
customersand
andsuppliers
suppliers
Create
Createvehicle
vehiclefor
formanagement
management
incentivisation
incentivisation
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
11
Agenda
Page
2
12
39
T H E
I P O
A S
S T RA T E GI C
F I N A N C I N G
OP T I O N
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
12
Right timing
Launch window / market conditions
Not too early / not too late: past accomplishment vs. remaining upside
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
13
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
14
operations and the involvement in a critical event in the life of the company
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
2 Hire/designate, early on, before the IPO process starts, an Investor Relations Officer
IPO preparation good training for life as a listed company
Typical profile: internal recruit with good vision of company and proficiency in English, or
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
15
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
Key
Keyworkshops
workshops//tasks
tasks
AN D
P R O C E S S
Investment case
Documentation/ legal/
accounting
Marketing/ distribution
Capital structure
Offer structure
Development of IR and
Corporate governance
Tax considerations
Valuation
Syndicate co-
Business plan/
ordination
Liaison with the
relevant regulatory
authorities
Lock-up
forecasts
Development of
investment case
Preparation of analyst
and roadshow
presentations
PR strategy
Investor education
Roadshow and
bookbuilding
Announcement of
offering
Pricing and allocation
Aftermarket
greenshoe/
stabilisation
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
16
Pre-IPO steps
Financial/Accounting
Financial/Accounting
Consolidation
Consolidation
financial statements
Discuss IPO with auditors to identify any
issues early on
Consider need to present financial track-
Engage appropriate
appropriate individuals/advisors
individuals/advisors
Engage
P R O C E S S
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
Establishing public
public company
company
Establishing
infrastructure/pre-IPO housekeeping
housekeeping
infrastructure/pre-IPO
AN D
record of business
directors
Identify Investor Relations Specialist to allow
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
17
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
Offer
Offer size
size
Primary
Primary vs
vs secondary
secondary
Investment case
case
Investment
Timing
Timing
Valuation
Valuation
Funding
Funding
Use
Use of
of proceeds
proceeds
Shareholder
Shareholder
Strategy
Strategy
Leadership
Leadership positions
positions
Optimal
Optimal valuation
valuation
Business
Business cycle
cycle
requirements
requirements
Demand
Demand
Free
Free float/liquidity
float/liquidity
Greenshoe
Greenshoe
Index
Index impact
impact
intentions
intentions
Nature
Nature of
of sale/seller
sale/seller
Overhang
Overhang // Lock-ups
Lock-ups
Operational
Operational track
track
Company
Company objectives
objectives
Market
Market conditions
conditions
Valuation
Valuation
Demand
Demand pools
pools
Syndicate
Syndicate structure
structure
Comparables
Comparables
Relevant
Relevant multiples
multiples
Domestic
Domestic
International
International
Syndicate
Syndicate size
size
Quality
Quality of
of research
research
Single
Single or
or dual
dual listing
listing
Peer
Peer group
group
Cross
Cross check
check
Retail
Retail
Index
Index
Distribution
Distribution
Research
Research coverage
coverage
Investor
Investor access
access
fundamental
fundamental
valuation
valuation
Targeting
Targeting
Employees
Employees
record
record
Solid
Solid financials
financials
Board
Board &
&
Management
Management
Growth
Growth // Value
Value //
Dividend
Dividend
Investment
Investment risks
risks
capabilities
capabilities
Aftermarket
Aftermarket support
support
Fees
Fees
Investor
Investor sentiment
sentiment
Listing
Listing location
location
Corporate
Corporate
Governance
Governance
Disclosure
Disclosure standards
standards
Costs
Costs
Liquidity
Liquidity
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
18
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
Cohesive strategy
and superior
management
Importance
Importance
Provides attractive base case growth outlook for company
Opportunity to drive growth in market through innovation
Superior product/service portfolio (as evidenced by leading
market share)
Effective relationships with industry players
Strong brand recognition
Management team that has delivered results in the past
Management has thorough understanding of macro and micro
Superior revenue
growth / scalability
Attractive
profitability profile /
Well-capitalized
balance sheet
19
Comment
Net present value of forecasted cashflows
Allows to capture 100% of management forecasts
Highly sensitive to discount rate and terminal value
Absolute valuation independent from stock market prices
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
20
Peer group
Target
investors
Index Impact
P R O C E S S
Liquidity
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
Valuation
AN D
Cost
Listing
market
capital raisings
Costs of listing on markets vary; tax treatment for selling shareholders
The selection of the right listing market is of the up most importance for future capital raising
as well as effective investor access
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
21
Open Market
Prime Standard
Perceived as the market for "blue
Characteristics
Accounting
Requirements
General Standard
issuers
(1)
issuers
(1)
Entry Standard
issuers
(1)
Prospectus
Requirements
9
Audited annual report
Quarterly reporting to the formal
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
Publication
Requirements
(1)
22
Analyst
Analyst
education
education
Investor
Investor
education
education
Roadshow/
Roadshow/
bookbuilding
bookbuilding
Pricing/
Pricing/
allocation
allocation
Aftermarket
Aftermarket
TT- xx weeks
weeks
T-7
T-7 weeks
weeks
T-4
T-4 weeks
weeks
T-2
T-2 weeks
weeks
TT
T+4
T+4 weeks
weeks
Management
Management
Preliminary
Preliminary
Price
Price range
range
Structuring
Structuring
Business
Business plan
plan
Capital
Capital
structure
structure
presentation
presentation
Research
Research
notes
notes
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
Flagship
Flagship
Management
Management
and
and board
board
Audited
Audited
accounts
accounts
Due
Due
diligence
diligence
Analyst
Analyst
presentation
presentation
investors
investors
prospectus
prospectus
Regulator
Regulator
sign-off
sign-off
Sales
Sales force
force
briefing
briefing
AnnounceAnnounce-
ment
ment
Analysts
Analysts visit
visit
Demand
Demand
Roadshow
Roadshow
BookBook-
building
building
Pricing
Pricing
scenarios
scenarios
Demand
Demand
review
review
Pricing
Pricing
decision
decision
Allocation
Allocation
Stabilization
Stabilization
Greenshoe
Greenshoe
On-going
On-going
research
research
Trading
Trading
support
support
Market
Market
making
making
Corporate
Corporate
relations
relations
profile
profile
Indicative
Indicative
price
price range
range
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
23
Roadshow/bookbuilding
Pricing/allocation
Aftermarket
The investor education process, the first contact of company with the market, will
Objectives
of investor
education
be undertaken by our research analysts and specialist sales and enable both the
management and underwriters to gather preliminary market feedback on the
offering
1. Research report
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
4. Price range
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
24
Roadshow/bookbuilding
Pricing/allocation
Aftermarket
Objectives
of the
roadshow
and performance of management team will be a critical factor for success of IPO
Banks specialists continue to host investor education meetings during roadshow
period
Banks role during the roadshow
Organise a number of 1-on-1 meetings
-o
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
operational manager(s)
- Boston
- New York
2 days
- Middle East: 2-3 days
- London: 2-3 days
- Edinburgh
- Paris
- Frankfurt
- Stockholm
5-6 days
- Netherlands
- Switzerland
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
25
1.769
Institutional tranche = 235.2m shares
incl. greenshoe
Bank communicates to
the market that books
are covered
1.135
459
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
336
Day:
Coverage:
98
121
140
143
10
0.0x
0.0x
0.4x
0.5x
0.6x
0.6x
1.4x
2.0x
4.8x
7.5x
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
26
Roadshow/bookbuilding
Pricing/allocation
Aftermarket
Bank
Bank would
would manage
manage a
a price
price discovery
discovery process
process in
in order
order to
to achieve
achieve the
the most
most favourable
favourable
results
results
Syndicate Valuation
Analyst Valuation
Price Range
Pricing
Valuation/
price range
15%
Roadshow
&
bookbuilding
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
10%
5%
0%
(5)%
Analyst presentation
Investor education
Pricing
10-20%
Marketing momentum
(10)%
(15)%
(20)%
(25)%
Time T
Preliminary valuation
range by Bookrunners
T + 3 weeks
Valuation range by
Syndicate research
T + 5 weeks
Bookbuilding price
range
T + 7 weeks
Pricing
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
27
Roadshow/bookbuilding
Pricing/allocation
Aftermarket
Pilot
Pilot fishing
fishing
Description
Preliminary meetings organised by the Bookrunners with selected lead investors to gather
companys preparedness)
Meetings organised in a discrete manner, no market publicity
Target key accounts with superior understanding of the sector and company comparables
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
Objectives
9 Test company positioning with investors and their potential interest/appetite for the story
9 Test valuation methodologies/trading multiples that will be used by investors to value company
9 Provide additional insight to company and its shareholders on feasibility of IPO
Risks
8 Partial investor feedback only, likely to evolve throughout the process
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
28
Objectives
of pricing
and
allocations
Roadshow/bookbuilding
Pricing/allocation
Allocation strategy
Quality/sophisticated investors
Outstanding knowledge of the
Tier I
S T R UC T UR E
institutional investors
70% of
demand
Execution
Tier II
AN D
P R O C E S S
I P O
Aftermarket
Tier III
Tier IV
Quality investors
Limited holdings in the sector
Followers rather than leaders
Uncertain holding period
Smaller inst. funds or local brokers
20% of
demand
8% of
demand
of shares to Tier 2
and Tier 3 accounts
Avoid allocating
shares to Tier 4
accounts, apart from
key investors
2% of
demand
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
29
Roadshow/bookbuilding
Pricing/allocation
Aftermarket
Allocation
Retail
7%
Hedge
funds
39%
54%
Retail
Long
only
27%
46%
Long
only
27%
Hedge
funds
Shares (bn)
1.8
Offer price:
5.40
I P O
Tier 1 investor
price sensitivity
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
Inst.
Tranche:
253.2m shrs
0.4
0.2
6.00
5.95
5.90
5.85
5.80
5.75
5.70
5.65
5.60
5.55
5.50
5.45
5.40
5.35
5.30
5.25
5.20
5.15
5.10
5.05
5.00
4.95
4.90
4.85
4.80
0.0
4.75
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
1.6
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
30
value
7%
Size of additional IPO discount required to attract investors into a transaction is subject to
several factors and can vary significantly from deal to deal. Key variables are:
Gauging range of IPO discount is possible by calculating difference between offer price and
value
phases commence, i.e. when the valuation is tested with investors for the first time
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
Impossible to accurately determine the IPO discount until pre-marketing and bookbuilding
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
31
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
32
7%
High
Low
Just right
Investor enthusiasm/
Risks
support is strained
No tolerance for
execution mistakes
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
Positives
P R O C E S S
Communicates hot
deal
expansion
Investors understand
in to value
Final Pricing
9 Create solid, experienced investor base with l-t commitment to company
9 Ensure steady and reasonable aftermarket share price progression to maintain
investor confidence and satisfaction
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
33
Roadshow/bookbuilding
Pricing/allocation
Aftermarket
Objectives of
aftermarket
phase
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
Listing
Market maker
Execution
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
34
Initial public
offering
business plan
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
Equity
Offerings
Fully marketed
offering,
Capital increase
Accelerated
bookbuildings
and block trades
Liquidity
Exit strategy for insiders and/or VC investors
Increase market float, reduce volatility
Equity-linked or
convertible
offerings
Marketing
Broaden research coverage
Opportunity to further educate investors on companys
story
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
35
Comparison of alternatives
Execution
timing
Description
Agency sale
Advantages
Considerations
P R O C E S S
AN D
S T R UC T UR E
Rights issue
Accelerated
bookbuild
Block trade
Offering period:
Offering period:
Rapid execution:
No regulatory or disclosure
Narrower discount
Opportunity to market
Potential to raise
issues
I P O
Fully marketed
Increased likelihood of
targeted investors
through extended
marketing and
bookbuilding process
2 weeks
Preparation time:
68 weeks
2 weeks
Preparation time:
6-8 weeks
with targeted
investors via
accelerated
bookbuilding process
13 days (sometimes
within hours)
underwritten offer
discount vis--vis
block trade
bigger % of company
No need to file
Preferential treatment prospectus
to existing
Allows for larger size
shareholders
vis--vis block trade
Opportunity to market
equity story
Certainty of disposal
No need to file
prospectus
No involvement of the
Companys
management required
Little or no market
risk during execution
as in case of block
deeply discounted
trade
offering
uncertain
vis--vis block trade and Long preparation time Size is an issue
Potentially negative signal
AGT
Limited ability to tap Increased market risk
vis--vis block trade
Requires management
to market resulting in
new investor base
Wider discount
downward pressure on share support
relative to fully
price
Longer preparation time
marketed offering
risk during the sale period
relative to
accelerated offering
Size and feasibility of
transaction greatly
influenced by liquidity
of the stock and
market conditions
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
36
GK
GK Software
Software (Software)
(Software)
MeVis
MeVis (Technology)
(Technology)
361.9m
361.9m
8.7m
8.7m
37.4m
37.4m
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
27 Jun
Jun 2008
2008
27
126.9m
126.9m
235.0m
235.0m
Strengthening of equity
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
P R O C E S S
8.7m
8.7m
--
basis
Germany
Internationalisation
International expansion
Expansion of development
Expansion of product
capacities
16 Nov
Nov 2007
2007
16
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
28.6m
28.6m
8.8m
8.8m
Expansion of business
activity
Strengthening of equity
basis
Expansion of R&D
department
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
19 Jun
Jun 2008
2008
19
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
37
Hamburger
Hamburger Hafen
Hafen (Logistics)
(Logistics)
Centrotherm
Centrotherm (Renewables)
(Renewables)
9.0m
9.0m
1,166m
1,166m
02
02 Nov
Nov 2007
2007
185.1m
185.1m
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
123.2m
123.2m
1,042.8m
1,042.8m
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
13 Nov
Nov 2007
2007
13
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
9.0m
9.0m
--
Expansion of business
operations
Strengthening of equity
Modernisation
Expansion of infrastructure
Increased financial
flexibility
of port
138.0m
138.0m
47.1m
47.1m
Strategic investments in
other companies
Strengthening of equity
basis
Expansion of R&D
department
I P O
S T R UC T UR E
AN D
P R O C E S S
basis
Maintenance
12 Oct
Oct 2007
2007
12
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
38
Agenda
Page
2
12
39
T H E
I P O
A S
S T RA T E GI C
F I N A N C I N G
OP T I O N
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
39
Event
July
E N V I R ON M E N T
Oct/Nov
January
March
April
August
I P O
March
September
2008
A N D
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
MA R K E T S
Kaupthing Bank files for bankruptcy and is taken over by the government
November
West LB, Commerzbank and HSH Nordbank claim German bail-out fund
40
Equity markets are likely to remain volatile, but medium term risk
reward is supportive as a deep recession is likely priced in
Key
Key market
market indicators
indicators (2007
(2007
2008
2008 YTD)
YTD)
Comments
Comments
Key
Key benchmark
benchmark indices
indices
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
MA R K E T S
A N D
I P O
E N V I R ON M E N T
15
11
7
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
EUR/USD
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
downwards
On the positive side, the medium term
is supportive
Significant steps have been taken to support
100
50
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08
Source: Bloomberg
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
41
700
A N D
MA R K E T S
DAX
500
400
5 years
10 years
(20.4%)
(23.6%)
(25.0%)
(29.2%)
(36.3%)
(37.2%)
(37.2%)
(40.2%)
(3.6%)
(12.2%)
(21.6%)
(15.2%)
(25.5%)
(30.9%)
(44.0%)
(42.4%)
29.2%
1.5%
9/11
attack
Russian
and Asian
crises
LTM
US
accounting
scandals
80%
70%
60%
Current
crisis
50%
Dot-com
bubble burst
40%
Spring 2006
correction
(growth fears)
300
30%
200
20%
100
10%
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
1 month
600
I P O
E N V I R ON M E N T
800
0%
0
Oct-98
Dec-99
Jan-01
Feb-02
Apr-03
May-04
Jun-05
Aug-06
Sep-07
Oct-08
Source: Bloomberg
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
42
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
Comments
Comments
2Q09
3Q09
Germany
(0.8)
(1.8)
(1.0)
0.5
1.0
Euro area
(1.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
0.5
1.0
U.S.
(0.5)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.5
UK
(2.0)
(3.0)
(2.5)
(1.5)
0.0
Japan
(0.7)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.8
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
MA R K E T S
A N D
I P O
E N V I R ON M E N T
% q/q
Weaker growth
growth
Weaker
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
43
Telecom
IT
(50.9)%
Consumer
discretionary
(51.3)%
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
MA R K E T S
Consumer staple
A N D
(18.4)%
(27.4)%
Energy
(34.1)%
Utilities
(35.3)%
(39.0)%
Materials
(54.3)%
Industrial
(54.6)%
Financials
Global
Global equity
equity markets
markets update
update and
and outlook
outlook for
for
4Q
2008
4Q 2008
The credit spreads are at 2-3x recession
(57.3)%
MSCI World: (47.5%)
Source: Bloomberg
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
44
EMEA
EMEA ECM
ECM issuance
issuance split
split by
by deal
deal type
type
Stoxx 600
Issuance, bn
IPOs
Follow on
Convertibles
300
275
30
A N D
250
20
225
10
200
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
MA R K E T S
325
40
I P O
E N V I R ON M E N T
50
experienced considerable
disruptions (e.g. only two
Equity-linked transactions were
placed in EMEA since beginning
of August)
2008YTD ECM volume has been
07 08
Jun
07 08
Jul
07 08
Aug
07 08
Sep
175
07 08
Oct
Source: Dealogic
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
45
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
MA R K E T S
A N D
I P O
E N V I R ON M E N T
By
By deal
deal type
type
By
By sector
sector
2003-2007
Fully marketed:
6%
Convert:
13%
ABB:
33%
Rights:
21%
IPO: 27%
2008YTD
Fully marketed:
3% ABB/other:
Convert:
18%
10%
IPO:
13%
Rights: 56%
2003-2007
2008YTD
Other:
Food & 22%
FIG: 31%
Other
40%
FIG: 59%
Bev.: 4%
Utility:
Telecom: 4%
10%
Utility: 7%
Telecom: 7%
Consumer Goods: 4%
1
EMEA
EMEA ECM
ECM issuance
issuance H2
H2 2008
20081
Date
07-Oct-08
25-Sep-08
22-Sep-08
22-Sep-08
19-Sep-08
18-Sep-08
08-Sep-08
22-Aug-08
24-Jul-08
21-Jul-08
18-Jul-08
14-Jul-08
07-Jul-08
01-Jul-08
Issuer
Sampo Oyj
Natixis
Mobile Telecom
Deutsche Bank
Lloyds TSB
Barclays
Commerzbank
IKB
Abu D. N. Energy
HBOS
Barclays
Ma'aden
AngloGold
Credit Agricole
1
Country
Finland
France
Kuwait
Germany
UK
UK
Germany
Germany
UAE
UK
UK
Saudi A.
S. Africa
France
Industry
Finance
Finance
Telecom
Finance
Finance
Finance
Finance
Finance
Utility
Finance
Finance
Mining
Mining
Finance
Type
ABB
Rights
Rights
ABB
ABB
ABB
ABB
Rights
Conv
Rights
FM
IPO
Rights
Rights
Size (mm)
1,314
3,727
3,133
2,200
972
884
1,112
679
717
5,202
5,011
1,547
1,108
5,900
Purpose
Secondary shares2
Strengthen cap.
General
Growth
Growth
Growth
Growth
Strengthen cap.
General
Strengthen cap.
Strengthen cap.
Secondary shares2
General
Strengthen cap.
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
46
DAX 30 (34.7%)
MDAX (45.2%)
SDAX (54.7%)
TecDAX (38.2%)
110
70
50
30
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
German
German equity
equity issuance
issuance since
since 2003
2003 in
in
bn
bn
29.8
MA R K E T S
29.7
IPO
21.7
86%
E C M
O F
100%
10%
14%
2004
2005
2003
Other1
26.5
20.9
90%
O V E R V I E W
Mar-08
Source: Bloomberg
A N D
I P O
E N V I R ON M E N T
90
69%
16.7
66%
93%
31%
34%
2006
2007
7%
2008
47
8.3m
4.2m
0.1m
7.4m
4.9
3.3
2.0
Q1
1.5
Q2
0.0
0.0
Q3
Q4
1.6
0.8
Q2
0.3
Q3
Q4
Q1
1.5
1.2
1.0
0.6
0.4
Q2
2005
Q3
Q4
Q1
2006
Q2
Q3
2008
2008 (Q1-Q3)
(Q1-Q3)
Sector
Sector
Convertibles
7.4m
2008: 16.7m
Source: Dealogic
0.1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Size
Size
Other1
16.3%
Capital
increase
8.3m
0.0
2008
German
German IPOs
IPOs by
by sector
sector &
& size
size since
since 2007
2007
IPO
1.1m
Q4
2007
German
German equity
equity issuance
issuance
O F
O V E R V I E W
Q1
2004
E C M
MA R K E T S
A N D
I P O
E N V I R ON M E N T
2.8
Transportation
18.6%
TMT
9.2% Real
Estate 7.5%
Automotive
28.6%
> 1,000m
3.9%
Consumerproducts
11.3%
5001,000m
3.9%
250-500m
7.8%
< 250m
84.3%
Machinery
8.5%
Other includes: Computer, Construction, Healthcare, Services, Finance, Food, Metal, Energy
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
48
20.00
Kromi Logistic
26.1
23.00
21-Mar-07
POLIS Immobilien
78.6
13.75
27-Mar-07
VITA 34 International
9.0
14.50
02-Apr-07
ESTAVIS
80.0
28.00
28.00
03-Apr-07
406.4
16.00
11-Apr-07
SMT Scharf
15.2
9.50
27-Apr-07
Versatel
720.7
29.00
16.00
9.50
29.00
15-May-07
Wacker Construction
352.0
18.00
24-May-07
DF Deutsche Forfait
13.5
7.00
11-Jun-07
Gerresheimer
880.0
37.00
18-Jun-07
InVision Software
30.0
32.00
28-Jun-07
VTG Aktiengesellschaft
174.0
16.00
02-Jul-07
Tognum
1,800.0
22.00
06-Jul-07
ZhongDe Waste
94.6
23.00
12-Jul-07
EnviTec Biogas
210.9
42.00
13-Jul-07
Homag Group
185.9
29.00
12-Oct-07
centrotherm photovoltaics
161.2
26.50
34.50 34.50
02-Nov-07
HHLA
1,017.6
43.00
53.00 53.00
13-Nov-07
FranconoWest
9.0
1.80
16-Nov-07
Asian Bamboo
82.6
13.50
16-Nov-07
37.4
55.00
55.00
65.00
19-Jun-08
GK Software AG
8.7
21.00
21.00
23.00
27-Jun-08
361.9
40.00
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
MA R K E T S
E N V I R ON M E N T
08-Mar-07
I P O
Company
A N D
Date
27.00
14.50
(71.6)%
(34.8)%
16.75
(69.9)%
35.00 (90.9)%
17.50
(67.9)%
15.00
17.50
(29.0)%
11.50
36.00
22.00 22.00
7.50 7.50
40.00
(65.4)%
(76.6)%
(22.7)%
(34.0)%
45.00
38.00
(71.9)%
18.00
20.00
24.00
26.00
(40.9)%
(54.3)%
(62.4)%
(69.3)%
(68.0)%
(17.1)%
(41.0)%
(35.0)%
(57.3)%
(53.6)%
(38.0)%
(4.3)%
32.00
26.00 26.00
47.00
31.00
52.00
35.00
1.80
2.20
17.00 17.00
47.00
52.00
49
O V E R V I E W
O F
E C M
MA R K E T S
A N D
I P O
E N V I R ON M E N T
DEUTSCHES EIGENKAPITALFORUM
50