Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Research
Budget FY2016
Strong positives over the medium term
Price Performance
28 Feb15
Nifty
1M 3M 1Y
(%) (%) (%)
8,902 -0.1
3.7 41.8
Sensex
29,362 -0.7
2.3 39.0
BSE Midcap
10,811
5.3 66.3
0.0
Indices Performance
28
Feb15
+ /1M
+ /YTD
(%)
(%)
Bank Nifty
19,691
-3.9
5.1
CNX Auto
8,935
-1.2
7.9
CNX Energy
8,696
-1.8
0.6
CNX Pharma
11,799
1.9
7.8
CNX Finance
8,033
-2.9
7.6
CNX FMCG
21,102
0.4
4.9
CNX IT
12,660
7.2
12.9
CNX Media
2,231
-6.8
-6.5
3,858
-12.7
-9.6
239
6.3
17.9
3,307
0.8
8.8
CNX Realty
CNX Infra
The contraction in the Fiscal Deficit to 4.1% of GDP and, the likely further
decline to 3% in three years can be a strong enabler of positive changes e.g.
holding inflation down over the medium term. A few other proposals too have
potentially strong medium term positive effects. The plug-and-play model
could catalyse projects in power and other infrastructure sectors. The move
towards lower and simpler tax regulations, coupled with the above, could add to
Indias attraction as a destination for manufacturing FDI. These positives are
likely to prevail over the negative effects of proposals that raise the effective tax
rate in the near term and of expectations unmet.
Tax revenue grew at half the 20% budgeted pace: All segments of tax
revenue are seen to grow below budget in FY2015, particularly Service tax and
Excise. The exception is Income tax that grew by 15% y-o-y.
And yet, the deficit target was reached: The Fiscal Deficit for FY2015 is
now estimated at INR5.1 trillion. This would be 2% higher than that for FY2014
but, 3% lower than the budgeted amount of INR5.3 trillion. Total Expenditure
for FY2015 was restricted to 6% below budget. Plan Expenditure cut by 20%,
Non-Plan Capital Expenditure by 13% and Interest Expenditure by 4%.
Deficit compression is likely to be sustained: The elasticity in several items
of expenditure is likely to persist. The budget for FY2016 projects a further fall
in Plan Expenditure and 9% y-o-y fall in Subsidies. After budgeting for 25%
growth in Excise and Service tax and only 10% growth in Corporation Tax the
Fiscal Deficit for FY2016 is projected to rise 8% y-o-y, well below the projected
growth in nominal GDP.
Several medium-term positives outweigh a few near-term negatives:
FY2016 corporate earnings would be impacted by the rise in surcharge on taxes.
The uptick in Service tax and Excise duty too could dampen sentiment on
equities. These negatives forces are likely to be offset by the positive effect of
the anticipated acceleration in economic activity in FY2016. Other proposals in
this budget, such as the decline in the fiscal deficit ratio, the move towards a
lower and simpler tax regime and the stimulus to infrastructure that would be
provided by plug-and-play projects could create conditions that extend the
high-growth phase beyond FY2016. The combination of USD2trillion economy
growing at c8%, with improving public finances, falling inflation and simpler tax
rules can draw in larger FDI into manufacturing.
Anand Shanbhag
Email: anand.shanbhag@tatacapital.com
Tel: +91 22 6606 9402
March
2015
02 02
March
2015
Risk factors: Conditions that may follow the planned withdrawal of stimulus in
the advanced economies may impact global interest rates and capital flows. A
significant rise in global energy prices may have a large impact on the
expenditure projected in the budget.
Budget FY2016
Mar11
Mar12
Mar13
Mar14
Mar15
Mar16
INRbn
Actual
Actual
Actual
Actual
RE
BE
Receipt
8,237
7,884
9,202
10,566
11,685
12,218
5,699
6,298
7,419
8,159
9,085
9,198
Corporation Tax
2,987
3,228
3,563
3,947
4,261
4,706
Taxes on Income
1,466
1,703
2,015
2,429
2,786
3,274
10
10
Customs
1,358
1,493
1,653
1,721
1,887
2,083
1,383
1,456
1,765
1,702
1,855
2,298
710
975
1,326
1,548
1,681
2,098
20
28
31
31
34
36
Tax revenue
Wealth Tax
Service Tax
Others
Less - NCCD transfer
Less - State's share
Non-tax revenue
Expenditure
Non-Plan Revenue
Defence Services
-39
-40
-44
-47
-51
-57
-2,193
-2,554
-2,915
-3,182
-3,378
-5,240
2,186
1,217
1,374
1,989
2,178
2,217
11,973
13,044
14,104
15,594
16,812
17,775
4,925
5,389
6,011
6,448
7,105
7,499
921
1,030
1,113
1,244
1,404
1,521
1,734
2,179
2,571
2,546
2,667
2,438
498
515
480
606
803
1,086
Pensions
574
612
695
749
817
885
Police
Other General Services (Organs of State, tax collection, external affairs
etc.)
Social Services (Education, Health, Broadcasting)
273
331
373
421
481
518
169
192
218
238
258
309
350
194
212
256
256
291
281
218
222
250
271
290
Other
125
117
129
139
149
160
2,340
2,732
3,132
3,743
4,114
4,561
Subsidies
Non-Plan Interest
Non-Plan Capital
918
799
824
871
913
1,062
Defence Services
621
679
705
791
820
946
Others
298
120
119
80
94
116
3,142
3,337
3,292
3,527
3,669
3,300
648
786
844
1,006
1,011
1,353
Revenue Deficit
2,523
3,943
3,643
3,570
3,625
3,945
Fiscal Deficit
3,736
5,160
4,902
5,029
5,126
5,556
Plan Revenue
Plan Capital
02 March 2015
Budget FY2016
The largest variance from the budgeted revenue was in Service Tax, that is now
estimated at INR1,681bn (+9% y-o-y) compared with the budget of INR2,160bn
(+40% y-o-y). Excise is now estimated at INR1,855bn (+9% y-o-y) compared
with the budget of INR2,071bn (+22% y-o-y). Revenue from Corporation Tax
and from Customs is estimated to grow 8% and 10% y-o-y; about 6% lower
than budgeted growth. Income Tax is estimated to grow 15% y-o-y for FY2015,
only 2% lower than budgeted growth.
The success in reaching the targeted deficit was the result of restricting Plan
Expenditure (c30% of total expenditure) to 20% below budget and Non-Plan
Capital Expenditure (c6% of total) to 13% below budget. Non-Plan Interest
Expenditure (c24% of total) is reported to be 4% below budget.
Non-Plan Revenue Expenditure is the largest segment comprising over 40% of
total expenditure of the Central Government. It is now estimated to have grown
10% y-o-y for FY2015, higher than the budgeted 7% growth. Subsidies, the
largest item accounting for more than a third of the Non-Plan Revenue
Expenditure grew 5% y-o-y, compared with budgeted growth of 2% y-o-y.
02 March 2015
Budget FY2016
y growth for FY2015 and is modest compared with the 20% growth that had
been budgeted for FY2015.
FY2016 growth in Service
tax and Excise could
accelerate as the GDP
recovers. Lower target for
Corporation
Tax
may
reflect slower rise in
profitability.
The budgeted growth in Excise (24% y-o-y) and in Service Tax (25% y-o-y)
could be realized if the real growth of Indias GDP does recover to c8%, as
projected by a few global institutions and by credit rating agencies. Revenue
from Corporation Tax (10% y-o-y) and from Customs (10% y-o-y) is modest and
virtually unchanged from the actual growth for FY2015. The targeted growth in
Corporation Tax may also suggest that corporate profitability is not expected to
materially improve in FY2016. Income Tax (on individuals and non-corporates) is
budgeted to grow 18% y-o-y, a small rise from the 15% growth for FY2015.
Net tax revenue is projected to grow by only 1% y-o-y for FY2016 because the
budgeted transfer to States would grow 55% y-o-y. The States share of gross
tax revenue is projected to rise to 36% in FY2016 from an average of 28% in the
preceding five years.
The budget projects c5% y-o-y fall in Plan Expenditure for FY2016. Non-Plan
Capital Expenditure is budgeted to grow 16% y-o-y while Plan Interest
Expenditure is projected to grow 11% y-o-y. Non-Plan Revenue Expenditure is
budgeted to grow 6% y-o-y despite a 9% fall in Subsidies. Grants to States and
Union Territories are budgeted to grow 35% y-o-y.
The budgeted Fiscal Deficit for FY2016 would rise by 8% y-o-y to INR5.6 trillion.
However, the budget projects only a 2% rise y-o-y in market borrowings for
funding the deficit.
02 March 2015
Budget FY2016
The ability to meet the deficit target despite low growth in tax revenues suggests
that the government is regaining control over expenses. So, it could have
targeted an even lower growth in Fiscal Deficit for FY2016 i.e. the deficit could
possibly be pushed below 3.9% of GDP and the milestone of 3% be realized
quicker. However, a rapid compression of the deficit could create an obstacle to
the recovery of economic growth. So, the gradual decrease in the deficit is likely
to be a supporting factor for a quicker return to the high growth path.
The plug-and-play model for Ultra Mega Power Projects could be capable of
rapidly reviving investment demand in a critical segment of the economy. The
intentions behind the plug-and-play projects are to resolve the well known
obstacles to such projects at the inception stage itself and could enable rapid
progress and commissioning of these projects.
02 March 2015
Budget FY2016
Annexure
Direct Taxes
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
Surcharge proposed to be levied on individuals, HUFs,bAOPs, BOIs, artificial juridical persons, firms,
cooperative societies and local authorities having income > Rs. 1 cr = 12%
Surcharge proposed to be levied in the case of domestic companies
a) Having income > Rs.1 cr and upto Rs.10 cr = 7%
b) having income > Rs.10 cr = 12%
Surcharge proposed to be levied in the case of foreign companies
a) Having income > Rs.1 cr and upto Rs.10 cr = 2%
b) Having income > Rs.10 cr = 5%
Proposed to levy a surcharge @12% as against current rate of 10% on additional income-tax payable by
companies on distribution of dividends and buyback of shares, or by mutual funds and securitisation
trusts on distribution of income.
Education cess on income-tax @ 2% for fulfilment of the commitment of the Government to provide quality
based education and
1% of additional surcharge called Secondary and Higher Education Cess on tax and surcharge is proposed to
be continued for the FY16 for all taxpayers.
Proposed to amend the provisions of section 269SS and 269T of the Income-tax Act so as to prohibit
acceptance or re-payment of advance in cash of Rs. 20,000 or more for any transaction in immovable
property. It is also proposed to provide a penalty of an equal amount in case of contravention of such
provisions.
Reduce rate of Corporate Tax over next 4 years from 30% to 25% along with rationalisation and removal of
various kinds of tax exemptions and incentives for corporate taxpayers
It is proposed to defer applicability of General Anti Avoidance Rule (GAAR) by 2 years. It is proposed to be
applicable for income of the FY 2017-18 (A.Y. 2018-19) and subsequent years. It is also proposed that the
investments made upto 31.03.2017 shall not be subjected to GAAR.
Proposed to provide pass through status to all the subcategories of category-I and also to category-II
Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) governed by the regulations of SEBI.
10
To facilitate technology inflow to small business at low cost, Income tax rate on royalty and fees for technical
service proposed to be reduced from 25% to 10%.
11
12
13
14
15
16
It is proposed to amend the provisions of section 194LD of the I-T Act so as to extend the period of
applicability of reduced rate of tax at 5% in respect of income of foreign investors (FIIs and QFIs) from
corporate bonds and government securities, from 31.5.2015 to 30.06.2017.
It is proposed to abolish the levy of Wealth-tax with effect from 2016-17(AY).
The revenue loss on account of such abolition is proposed to be compensated by increase in the existing
surcharge by 2% in case of domestic companies and all non corporate taxpayers ( for income > Rs.1 cr)
Increase the deduction unit u/s 80 D for health insurance premium from Rs.15000 to Rs.20000 for individuals
and from Rs.20000 to Rs.30000 for senior citizens
Increase the deduction limit u/s 80CCD for contribution to National Pension Scheme from Rs.1 lakh to
Rs.1.5 lakh.
Increase the deduction limit u/s 80CCC for contribution to pension fund of LIC or IRDA approved insurer
from Rs.1 lakh to Rs.1.5 lakh.
Transport allowance exemption increased from Rs.800 to Rs.1600 per month.
02 March 2015
Budget FY2016
Indirect Taxes
A)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
B)
Excise Duty
Central Excise Duty increased from 12.36% to 12.5% to subsume education cess.
Hike in excise duty on cigarettes to 25% for length upto 65mm and 15% for other cigarette lengths.
Reduction in excise duty on leather footwear with retail price> Rs.1000 from 12% to 6%
Clean Energy Cess increased from Rs.100 to Rs.200 per metric tonne of coal
Inputs for use in the manufacture of LED drivers and MCPCB for LED lights, fixtures and LED lamps from
12% to 6%.
Excise duty on chassis for ambulances is being reduced from 24% to 12.5%
Excise duty on sacks and bags of polymers of ethylene other than for industrial use is being increased from
12% to 15%.
Service Tax
Increase in service tax rate plus education cess from 12.36% to 14%
Service tax exemption to be provided on Varishta Bima Yojana for Senior Citizen
Service provided by a Common Effluent Treatment Plant operator for treatment of effluent is being exempted
from service tax.
Service tax to be levied on the service provided by way of access to amusement facility such as rides,
bowling alleys, amusement arcades, water parks, theme parks, etc.
Service tax exemption extended for pre cold storage services to incentivize value addition in fruits and
vegetables sector.
A uniform abatement is being prescribed for transport by rail, road and vessel to bring parity in these
sectors. Service Tax shall be payable on 30% of the value of such service subject to a uniform condition of
non-availment of Cenvat Credit on inputs, capital goods and input services. Presently, tax is payable on 30%
of the value in case of rail transport, 25% in case of road transport and 40% in case of transport
by vessels.
Customs Duty
Proposal to reduce the rates of basic customs duty on certain inputs, raw materials, intermediates and
components (in all 22 items) so as to minimise the impact of duty inversion and reduce the manufacturing
cost in several sectors.
Basic customs duty on sulphuric acid for the manufacture of fertilizers is being reduced from 7.5% to5%.
The tariff rate of basic customs duty on bituminous coal is being reduced from 55% to 10%.
3
4
5
C)
1
5
6
7
The effective rates of Additional Duty of Customs levied on imported Petrol and High Speed Diesel Oil
(commonly known as road cess) are being increased from Rs.2/litre to Rs.6/litre only.
02 March 2015
Budget FY2016
02 March 2015
Budget FY2016
Market Outlook:
02 March 2015
Budget FY2016
SKS MICROFINANCE
SKS MICROFINANCE
BUY
Market Price
Buy Range
Targets
Stoploss
Holding Period
:
:
:
:
:
Source: Bloomberg
BIOCON
BUY
Market Price
Buy Range
Target
Stoploss
Holding Period
:
:
:
:
:
Source: Bloomberg
02 March 2015
10
Budget FY2016
SINTEX INDUSTRIES
BUY
Market Price
Buy Range
Target
Stoploss
Holding Period
:
:
:
:
:
Source: Bloomberg
BUY
Market Price
Buy Range
Target
Stoploss
Holding Period
:
:
:
:
:
Source: Bloomberg
02 March 2015
11
Budget FY2016
YES BANK
BUY
Market Price
Buy Range
Target
Stoploss
Holding Period
:
:
:
:
:
Source: Bloomberg
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER
BUY
Market Price
Buy Range
Targets
Stoploss
Holding Period
Source: Bloomberg
:
:
:
:
:
Source: Bloomberg
02 March 2015
12
Budget FY2016
BAJAJ AUTO
BUY
Market Price
Buy Range
Target
Stoploss
Holding Period
:
:
:
:
:
Source: Bloomberg
02 March 2015
13
DISCLAIMER
This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment,
legal or taxation advice to you. Tata Securities Limited (Tata Securities or TSL) is not soliciting any action based
upon it. Nothing in this research report shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or
to engage in or refrain from engaging in any such transaction. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or
take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of the reader.
This research report has been prepared for the general use of the clients of the TSL and must not be copied, either
in whole or in part, or distributed or redistributed to any other person in any form. If you are not the intended
recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research report in any way. Though disseminated to
all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. TSL will not treat
recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be
taken or transmitted into the United States (to US Persons), Canada or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in
the United States or Canada or distributed, or redistributed in Japan to any residents thereof. The distribution of
this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by the law applicable in the relevant jurisdictions and persons
into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions.
We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be
reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither TSL, nor any person connected with it,
accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own
investigations and take their own professional advice. Price and value of the investments referred to in this material
may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions -including those
involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk
and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock's
price movement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and as such, may not
match with a report on a company's fundamentals.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to
update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance or
other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forwardlooking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading and
investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed
herein.
Further, the report is based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but TSL does not make
any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up to date and it should not be relied upon as such.
It does not have any obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. TSL or any of its affiliates or
employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any
inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. TSL or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide,
at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including
without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. This information is subject to change without
any prior notice. TSL reserves at its absolute discretion the right to make or refrain from making modifications and
alterations to this statement from time to time. Nevertheless, TSL is committed to providing independent and
transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to specific client
queries.
02 March 2015
14
Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without
the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs,
objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and
does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the
additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market
or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. Neither TSL nor the director or the
employee of TSL accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from
any use of this research report and/or further communication in relation to this research report.
02 March 2015
15