Probability and Statistics

IISER Pune
Assignment 3, Page 1 of 3 January 2015

January 2015

1. Assuming all sex distributions to be equally probable, what proportion of families

with exactly six children should be expected to have three boys and three girls?
Ans: Let X denote
the number of boys in a family of 6 children.


6 1 6
5
= 31.25%
P (X = 3) = 3 ( 2 ) = 16
2. If the probability of hitting a target is 51 and ten shots are fired independently, what is
the probability of the target being hit at least twice? Find the conditional probability
that the target is hit at least twice, assuming that at least one hit is scored.
Answer: Let X denote the number of successful shots. X Bin(10, 15 ).
P (X 2) = 1 (P = 0) P (X = 1) = 1 ( 45 )10 10 15 ( 45 )9 .
P (X 2 | X 1) =

P (X2)
P (X1)

1( 54 )10 10 15 ( 45 )9
1( 45 )10

3. A lot consisting of 100 bulbs is inspected by taking at random 10 bulbs and testing
them. If the number of defective bulbs is at most 2, the lot is accepted, otherwise it
is rejected. If there are in fact 10 defective bulbs in the lot, what is the probability
of accepting the lot.
P
(10)( 90 )
And: P (Accepting the lot ) = 2x=0 x 10010x
( 10 )
4. A book of 500 pages contains 500 misprints. Estimate the chances that a given page
contains at least three misprints.
Ans: X=number of misprints on given page. X P oisson(1). P (X 3) = 0.08.
5. Two people toss a true coin n times each. Find the probability that they will score
the same number of heads.
Ans: X=number of heads by the first person. Y =number of head by the second
person.

2
P
P
P
P (X = Y ) = nk=0 P (X = k, Y = k) = nk=0 P (X = k)P (Y = k) = nk=0 nk ( 12 )2n
6. In rolling six true dice, find the probability of obtaining (a) at least one, (b) exactly
one, (c) exactly two, aces. Compare with poisson approximations.
Ans: Success(S)=getting an ace; Failure(F)=not getting an ace. P (S) = 61 , P (F ) =
5
. Random experiment here is a sequence of 6 independent Bernoulli trials with
6
probability of success 16 . X = the number of successes in 6 independent Bernoulli
trails. X Bin(6, 61 ). (a) P (X 1) = .6651, (b) P (X = 1) = .4018, (b) P (X =
2) = .2009
Poisson Approx. X P oisson(1). (a) 1 e1 = .6321, (b) .3679, (c) 0.1839
7. If there are on the average 1 per cent left-handers, estimate the chances of having at
least four left-handers among 200 people. And: X=number of left-handers among
200 people. E(X) = = 2. X P oisson(2). P (X 4) = 0.143.

8. A burnt out bulb was mistakenly placed in a box containing 3 good bulbs. In order
to locate the bad bulb, bulbs are randomly tested one by one, without replacement.
Let X denote the number of bulbs tested to determine the bad bulb. Find the pmf
and the cdf of X.
Ans: P (X = i) = 41 , for i = 1, 2, 3, 4.
9. An animal either dies (D) or survives (S) in the course of a surgical experiment. The
experiment is to be performed first with two animals. If both survive, no further trails
are to be made. If exactly one animal survives, one more animal is to undergo the
experiment. If both animals die, two additional animals are to be tried. Assuming
that the trails are independent and that the probability of survival in each trial is
2/3, find the probability distribution of the number of survivals and the number of
deaths.
10. Suppose that the distribution function of X is given by

F (x) =

(a) Find P (X = i), i = 1, 2, 3.

1
+
2

11

12

x1
4

x<0
0x<1
1x<2
2x<3
3x

(b) Find P { 12 < X < 23 }.

11. If the distribution function of X is given by

F (x) =

3
5

10

x<0
0x<1
1x<2
2x<3
3 x < 3.5
3.5 x

Find the probability mass function (pmf) of X, E(X) and V (X).

12. Let

x 2
F (x) =

1 3(1 x)2

x<0
0 x < 21
1
x<1
2
x1

Verify that F is a cumulative distribution fuction of some random variable X.

Determine P ( 14 < X < 34 ), E(X) and V (X).

13. A state lottery has one million tickets each costing Rs. 10. There is one first prize of
Rs. 50,000; nine second prizes of Rs. 2,500 each; ninety third prizes of Rs. 250 each
and 900 prizes of Rs. 25 each. Find the expected profit if you buy 5 tickets. What
is the expected profit to the state if only 80% of the tickets are sold?
14. Let X be the continuous random variable

x+1

4
f (x) = 3x
4

with probability density function

1 x 1
1x3
otherwise

Find the cumulative

distribution
function, mean and variable of X. Also evaluate


P 12 < X 52 and P | x |< 32 .