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Standard Form 424 (Rev 4-88)
Prescribed by OMB Circular A-102
CANVIDEOSURVEILLANCEREDUCECRIME?
QUANTIFYINGTHESIZEANDGEOGRAPHICEXTENT
OFCCTVSIMPACT
DepartmentofCriminalJustice |TempleUniversity
Page|i
Abstract
ClosedCircuitTelevision(CCTV)isanappliedtechnologythatseekstoreducecrimeby
increasingtheperceivedriskofcapture(Ratcliffe2006:8).Whiletherearenonational
estimatesontheextentofCCTVacrossAmerica,newspaperaccountssuggestthatCCTV
camerasarebeingimplementedatarateneverseenbefore.Forexample,SanFranciscohas
spentcloseto$1mon74camerasat25locations,andafurther25camerasareplanned(Bulwa
2008);andWashingtonDCplansa$4.5millionexpansionofitssurveillancesystem(Klein
2008).Thisrapidandunprecedentedexpansionofvideosurveillancetechnologyisnotjust
limitedtothemajorurbanareas(Farrington&Welsh2007).Reductionsintechnologycostand
aperceptionthatCCTVisacosteffectivecrimepreventiontoolhavedriveninvestmentinvideo
surveillanceinmunicipalareasacrossAmerica.
Forallthisenthusiasmforvideosurveillance,therehasbeenalackofhighquality,
independentevaluationstudies(Eck1998,Greenberg&Roush2009).Astoundingly,when
FarringtonandWelsh(2007)conductedarecentmetaanalysisofevaluationsofCCTVincity
andtowncenters,theycouldonlyfindasinglestudyfromtheUSthatwasmethodologically
andstatisticallyrobustenoughtowarrantinclusionintheirreport.ThissingleUSstudy
examinedanundisclosednumberofunmonitoredcamerasinthreeareasofCincinnati,Ohio;
camerasthatusedtechnologydatingfromearly1999(Mazerolleetal.2002).
TownsandcitiesacrosstheUSarespendingaphenomenalamountofmoneyonCCTV.
Giventhecurrententhusiasm,thereisanurgentneedforalargescale,empiricallysoundand
methodologicallyrobustevaluationofCCTVcamerasintheurbanenvironment.
Page|iii
Inlightofarecentsuccessfulpilotproject,weproposetoconductalargescale,multi
method,quasiexperimentalresearchstudythatwillbespatiallytailoredtotheviewshedof
eachof220camerasinPhiladelphia,PA.Unliketraditionalspatialapproachesthatsimply
measurecrimeoutfromacameratoanarbitrarilyselecteddistance,individuallyconstructed
polygonsforeachcamerasitewillbenestedwithinbufferareastodetectdisplacementand/or
diffusionofbenefitstosurroundingareas.Advancedinterruptedtimeseriesmodelsthatcan
incorporatevaryingimplementationdatesofdifferentcameraswillbepopulatedwithcontrols
forseasonalityandlongtermcrimetrends,andfouryearsofpriorcrimehistoryinthecity.
Fieldobservationsateachsiteandqualitativeinterviewswithpolicecameraoperatorsacross
varyingshiftswillcombinewiththequantitativeworktoproduceadefinitiveevaluation,and
createabestpracticeguideforcrimepreventionpracticewithCCTV.
Page|iv
Resubmit response
Thisapplicationwassubmittedoneyearagoasapplication200891640PAIJwiththesame
projectname(Canvideosurveillancereducecrime?Quantifyingthesizeandgeographicextentof
CCTVsimpact).Forsection1(UnderstandingoftheProblemandItsImportance)andsection2(Quality
andTechnicalMerit)thereviewersfoundNorelevantweaknesseswereevidentinthisapplicants
responsetothissectionoftheApplication.
Forsection3(ImpactoftheProposedProject)thereviewerswrotethatWhilenotatrue
weakness,thereappearstobenoimmediatepotentialforcommercializationofthisprojects
deliverables.
Response:ThereisalreadysufficientcommercializationofCCTVtofulfillthenationsneedfor
videosurveillancesystems.Thebroaderquestion,thatwefeelismuchmorepertinent,is;whatisthe
sizeandgeographicextentofanydisorderandcrimebenefitsofCCTV,ifany?Ifastrong
methodologicalstudysuchasweproposeiscapableofdemonstratingabenefit,thentherewillbean
increaseincitiespursuingcommercialCCTVsystems.
Forsection4(Capabilities,DemonstratedProductivity,andExperienceofApplicants)the
reviewersfoundNorelevantweaknesseswereevidentinthisapplicantsresponsetothissectionofthe
Application.
Page|v
Forsection6(DisseminationStrategy)thereviewersfoundNothingwasmentionedinthe
applicationthatwouldindicateanyspecialeffortstobetakentogettheirfindingstothenationscity
managers.
Response:Thisisaperfectlyreasonablecriticismandwehavethisyearincludedtwo
disseminationactivitiesthatwouldtargetthenationscitymanagers.First,weplantopublishan
articleregardingthisresearchintheLeadershipBulletinoftheNationalExecutiveInstituteAssociates,
apublicationthatiscopiedtograduatesoftheFBINationalAcademyandmembersofboththeMajor
CitiesChiefsAssociationandtheMajorCountySheriffsAssociation.Secondly,wewillseektopresent
thefindingsofourresearchattheannualmeetingoftheInternationalCity/CountyManagement
Association,anationalbodybasedinWashingtonDCwithalargemembership.Theirannualmeeting
for2011willbeinWisconsin,andabudgetitemforthisisincluded.
Finally,wewouldliketoexpressourthankstothereviewersfromthefirstreview,whosummarizedour
applicationthusNIJshouldhavethehighestlevelofconfidencethatthesolicitationrequirementswill
bemet,ifnotexceeded.Intheinterveningperiod,wehaveworkedevenmorecloselywiththe
PhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmentandarecurrentlyengagedinasignificantcitywidefootbeatpolicing
experimentwiththem.Theexperimentwillconcludebythetimethisprojectwouldcommence,butit
demonstratesthatwemaintainexcellentrelationswiththePoliceDepartmentandNIJshouldfeelas
confidentinthecompletionofthisresearchasthereviewersfeltlastyear.
Page|vi
Contents
ABSTRACT..................................................................................................................................................III
RESUBMITRESPONSE..................................................................................................................................V
VII
CONTENTS.................................................................................................................................................
PURPOSE,GOALS,ANDOBJECTIVES.............................................................................................................
OBJECTIVES...........................................................................................................................................................2
REVIEWOFRELEVANTLITERATURE..............................................................................................................
RESEARCHDESIGNANDMETHODS.............................................................................................................. 9
ALONGITUDINALSTUDYEMPLOYINGINTERRUPTEDTIMESERIESANALYSES.......................................................................10
ACOMPARATIVESTUDYWITHNONCAMERALOCATIONS...............................................................................................13
ASPATIALSTUDYEXAMININGPOTENTIALDISPLACEMENTORDIFFUSION...........................................................................14
REGULARFIELDOBSERVATIONSOFCAMERALOCATIONSTOCONFIRMIMPLEMENTATIONCRITERIA.........................................18
INTERVIEWSWITHCAMERAOPERATORSANDKEYSTAKEHOLDERS....................................................................................20
EVALUATIONSUMMARY............................................................................................................................21
IMPLICATIONSFORCRIMINALJUSTICEPOLICYANDPRACTICE....................................................................22
MANAGEMENTPLANANDORGANIZATION................................................................................................23
DISSEMINATIONSTRATEGY........................................................................................................................25
FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................................28
REFERENCES...............................................................................................................................................30
OTHERAPPLICATIONREQUIREMENTS........................................................................................................33
DATAARCHIVINGSTRATEGY....................................................................................................................................33
LISTOFKEYPERSONNEL..........................................................................................................................................34
RSUMSOFKEYPERSONNEL..................................................................................................................................35
LISTOFPREVIOUSANDCURRENTNIJAWARDS............................................................................................................38
LETTEROFCOOPERATION/SUPPORTFROMTHEPHILADELPHIAPOLICEDEPARTMENT..........................................................38
Page|vii
crimeincreasedordecreasedincameraandbufferareas,basedonfieldobservationsat
camerasitesandinterviewswithkeypersonnelandstakeholders.
Objectives
Maptheexactenvironmentofeachof220camerasacrossPhiladelphia,PA
Establishexactspatialviewshedsforeachcamera,andliaisewithdistrictofficers
andcameraoperatorstomapthelikelydisplacementzonesaroundeachcamera
Buildmonthlytimeseriesmodelsofdisorderevents,propertycrimeandviolent
crimeforuptofouryearspriortocameraimplementation
Continueregularvisitstoallcameraandbufferareasduringtheimplementation
periodtomonitorthecontextoftheurbanenvironment
Assesschangesinviolentcrime,propertycrimeanddisorderactivityintargetareas,
bufferareasandcontrolareasusingavarietyofrobuststatisticalmethods(ARIMA
timeseriesanalysis,WeightedDisplacementQuotientanalysis,comparisonanalysis
withcontrolsites)
Conductqualitativeinterviewswithcameraoperators,policedepartment
leadership,andpatrol(district)officersinpolicedistrictswithcameras
Disseminatefindingsnotonlywithinacademia,butthroughoutthepractitioner
communitywithpublicationsandpresentationsspecificallytargetedtoITmanagers
andpoliceexecutivesratherthancollegeprofessors
Completefinalreportandaccompanyingpublications
Archivedataforfutureprojectreplication
Page|2
Page|3
Methodologicallyweakstudieshavelackedcontrolareas,controlsforseasonalvariation,or
havelackedanymeasureofpotentialdisplacement(ordiffusion).
Theexistingevaluationliteraturehasconsiderablevariationinnotonlymethodology,but
alsooutcomemeasuresandindependentvariables.Someexaminetheimpactofcamerason
crimewithinadefineddistanceofCCTVcameras(Haradaetal.,2004),whileotherssurveyed
residentsincameraareasfortheirperceptionsofhowcrimehaschanged(Squires,2003).
Otherstudieshaveinterviewedkeystakeholders(Hood,2003)orexaminedemergencyroom
attendancelevelsrelatedtoassaults(Sivarajasingam,Shepherd,&Matthews,2003).
IrrespectiveofthenumerousuniversallyglowingreportsofCCTVintrademagazinesand
technologyperiodicals,thenumberofstatisticallysoundandindependentevaluationsis
substantiallysmaller.FarringtonandWelshs(2007)systematicreviewidentifiedfouressential
criteriaforinclusionintheirstudy:
1. CCTVwasthemaininterventionexamined;
2. Theoutcomemeasurewascrime;
3. Theevaluationhadaminimummethodologicaldesignthatincorporatedatleastbefore
andaftermeasuresofcrimeinexperimentalandcomparablecontrolareas;and
4. Therewasaminimumnumberofcrimes(20)recordedintheexperimentalareapriorto
theCCTVimplementation.
Withinthesebasicevaluationcriteria,theywereabletoidentify44studies,butonly22that
wereapplicabletocitycentersandpublicurbanareas.Ofthese22,17wereconductedinthe
Page|4
UK,2isScandinavia,and3fromtheUS;however,the3fromtheUSareactuallyon3locations
inCincinnati,Ohio,andarereportedinonesinglejournalarticle(Mazerolleetal.2002).
Furthermore,thissinglestudydoesnotusecrimeasanoutcomemeasure,butcallsforservice.
WhilethestudyconductedbyLorraineMazerolleandcolleaguesismethodologicallysoundand
empiricallysophisticated,theuseofcallsforserviceratherthanrecordedcrimebasicallymeans
thattherehasnotbeenasinglestudyofCCTVinAmericathatusesrecordedcrimeinpublic
spaceasanoutcomemeasureinamannerthatsatisfiesFarringtonandWelshssystematic
reviewcriteria.
Sinceourapplicationlastyeartherehas,however,beenoneUSstudyofnote.Greenberg
andRoush(2009)evaluatedaCCTVsystemataprivateapartmentcomplexinNewYork,NY.
Thoughhamperedbylowcrimecounts,theirmethodologicallysoundevaluationfoundthat
CCTVmaybemoderatelyeffectiveinpreventingminorcrimesbuttheresultsforseriouscrime
wereunclearbecauseofthedearthofseriouscrimetobeginwith.Itisworthnotingthateven
writingin2009,theynotedapaucityofAmericanstudies(2009:5)andoncallingformore
researchtheypointedoutthatbecausethebenefitsofreducingmajorcrimearegreaterthan
ofreducinglessercrimes,wesuggestthatfutureresearchfocusonareasinwhichseriouscrime
ratesarehigherthanintheirresearchedlocation(2009:22).Theresultsfromtheirprivate
apartmentcomplexmaynottranslatetothepublicspaceenvironmentsthatweseekto
examineinourstudyandwheremostCCTVsystemsareimplemented.Fortunately,with220
camerasacrossPhiladelphia,weanticipatesignificantlygreaterlevelsofviolentandserious
crimeonwhichtotesttheeffectivenessofCCTV.
Page|5
OftheCCTVreviewsfromoverseas,thevastmajoritystemfromtheUK.AsFarringtonand
Welshreportfromthe22studiesincludedintheirreview,tenhadpositiveoutcomesasregards
areductionincrime(orequivalentmeasure,forexamplecallsforservice),fivehadundesired
outcomes,andtheremainderhadnullormixedresults.Whileitmaybetemptingtosimply
translatetheseresultstotheUS(albeittheresultsaretoomixedintermsofoutcomeand
methodology),thereisaproblemwiththatapproach.AsAnderssonnotesThereisalsogood
reasontoweightheinternationalresultsandexperiencesagainstourownhistoryandour
currentsituationasregardstheuseofCCTV,whichareverydifferentfromthoseofcountries
liketheUnitedKingdom,forexample,whichhaslongbeendevelopinglargescaleCCTV
surveillanceasameansofcombatingterrorism(Andersson2007:6).
TheUKsattempttocombatterroristattacksfromtheProvisionalIRAspurrednumerous
technologysolutions,suchasCCTVacrossthepublictransportnetwork.Thiscameranetwork
datesbacktothemid1980s,butevaluationsofthesecamerashavelimitedapplicabilitytothe
modernUSexperience:thecameratechnologyhasadvancedsignificantlyduringthe
interveningyears,andalthoughweareinapost9/11homelandsecurityerathathasexpanded
thenumberofcamerasincitiessuchasNewYork,thevastmajorityoftownsandcitiesacross
thecountrystillimplementsurveillancetechnologytocombatstreetcrimeandproperty
offensesratherthanasacounterterrorismmeasure.Moreover,violentcrimerates(especially
shootingsandhomicides)intheUKaresignificantlylowerthanintheUSandthecrimedynamic
(intermsofthemixofstreetoffensesandpublicdisordercrime)isnotastransferabletotheUS
(Gill&Springs2005).Finally,thestreetpatterninmuchoftheUS(oftenbuiltonagridpattern
Page|6
rarelyseenintheUK)betterfavorsthelinearviewschemeofCCTVcameras,suggestingthat
camerasintheUSmayhavegreaterapplicabilitytotheexistinggeography.
TheliteratureonCCTVrarelyaddressesthetheoreticalperspectiveofcamerabenefit;in
otherwords,howdoesasurveillancesystemreducecrime?Drawingontheliteratureof
environmentalcriminology,Ratcliffe(2006)suggeststhatcamerasmayworktopreventcrimeif
twocriteriaaremet;theoffenderisawarethatthecameramaybewatchingtheiractivity,and
secondlythattheoffenderperceivesthattheriskofcapturebypolicemayoutweighthe
benefitsofthecrimetheyareconsidering.Ascrimepreventionisthereforeafeatureof
offenderperception,itmaybethatalthoughthecamerasmayonlybeabletoseeacertain
amountofpublicspace,offendersperceivethatthecamerascanobservetheiractivitytoa
greaterorlesserrange.Thechoiceisthereforetodefineevaluationareasbasedonpossible
offenderperceptionofcamerarange,orontheactualareathatthecameracanview.Inthis
researchwetaketheapproachofmappingtheactualareasthatthecamerascansee.Thisis
becauseoffenderperceptionisnotpossibletomeasurewithoutextensiveandexpensive
interviewing,andsecondlybecauseoffenderperceptionwillvaryfrompersontoperson.
Fortunately,asexplainedinalatersection,theweighteddisplacementquotientanalysisisable
toincorporateameasurefordiffusionordisplacement,intheeventofamisspecificationofthe
surveillancezone.Thiswillallowustomeasureanydiffusionofbenefitsordisplacementto
theneighboringareaaroundeachcamera,andtolimittheimpactofareaswheretheboundary
ofthetargetareadoesnotexactlymatchwithoffenderperception.Thisapproachis
significantlypreferabletothestandardmethodofestimatingcameraimpact.
Page|7
Ifthereisastandardmethod,thenitistouseasimplebufferthatdoesnotreflectthe
underlyinggeographyoftheurbanmosaicaroundcameralocations.Forexample,anumberof
studieshavemappedcrimeacertaindistancefromthecameras;Haradaandcolleagues(2004)
studyinaTokyoneighborhoodexaminedcrimeoutto50meters(164feet);Mazerolleand
colleagues(2002)bufferedregionsto200,500and1,000feetradiallyoutfromcameras;Sarno
etal.(1999)bufferedoutfor200meters(656feet);andarecentDCpoliceevaluation
examinedcrimewithin250feetofcameras,butdidnotconsiderdisplacement(Klein2008).
Theproblemwithexaminingcrimebycountingeventswithinacertainsetdistancefrom
everycameraisthatcameraimplementationhasasignificantimpactontheviewshedof
cameras,andnotwocamerashavethesamerangeofvision.Forexample,roadsigns,trees,
cameraheightandcameratechnologyallenhanceorlimittheviewablerangeofCCTVcameras.
Thusarobustapproachisonewheretheactualviewablegeographyofthestreetscapeunder
surveillancebecomestheexperimentalarea,anareathatistailoredtoeachcamera.Mapping
theactualviewshedofeachcamera,asweproposetodo,isthemostempiricallysound
approach,yetithasnotbeenconductedinanyevaluationstudyofmerit.
Insummary,theliteraturereviewfindsthefollowingkeypoints:
Thereisacompletelackofempiricallysound,crimefocusedevaluationsofpublicstreet
CCTVcamerasintheUnitedStates(US).
MuchoftheexistingliteraturefromoverseasmaylackrelevancetotheUS
environment,giventhedifferentcrimedynamicfromBritishurbancenterstoUScities.
Page|8
Muchoftheevaluationliteraturelackstailoringtotheindividualviewshedsofthe
cameras,simplyemployingafixeddistancearoundcamerasadistancethatvariesby
study.
Existingevaluationsareoftenmethodologicallyweak,lackingcontrolsforseasonality,
limitedhistoricaldataonwhichtoestimateprecameratrends,andrarelyexplicitly
testingfordisplacement.
Thestudyweproposeresolvesalloftheseissues,anddoessoovermorecamerasthanever
beforeexamined.
Page|9
locations.Theresearchincorporatedcontrolsforlongtermtrendsandseasonalityandfound
thattheintroductionofcameraswasassociatedwitha13percentreductionincrime.This
researchhasbeenacceptedforpublicationinJusticeQuarterly(Ratcliffeetal,inpress).Based
onourexperienceswiththepoliceandthepilotprojectaswellastheclearneedforamore
expansiveevaluation,wenowseektoconductanextendedresearchprojectonamuchgreater
scale.
Weproposeamultimethod,multiprongedapproachforthisextendedproject.Our
researchdesignemploysanumberofapproachestoevaluationtheimpactofCCTVcameras,
specifically;
Alongitudinalstudyemployinginterruptedtimeseriesanalyses;
Acomparativestudywithnoncameralocations;
Aspatialstudyexaminingpotentialdisplacementordiffusion;
Regularfieldobservationsofcameralocationstoconfirmimplementationcriteria;and
Interviewswithcameraoperatorsandkeystakeholderstointerpretthequantitative
results.
Alongitudinalstudyemployinginterruptedtimeseriesanalyses
Wewillemploytwotimeseriesmethodologiestocrossreferencethequantitativeimpact
ofCCTVimplementationonrecordedcrimeandcallsforservice(CFS).Itisimportantto
examinebothcrimeandCFSdata.Recordedcrimeisoftenthemeasurebywhichmunicipalities
measuresuccessofacrimepreventionintervention,whileCFSareausefulindicationofpolice
Page|10
workloadandmuchoftheminorpublicdisorderthatplaguesurbanareasbutthatdoesnotrise
tothelevelofrecordedcrime.Wewillexaminebothdatasources.
OnemethodologyisAutoRegressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(ARIMA)timeseries
modeling.Theanalysisofatimeseriesasthequasiexperimentaldesigntobeemployedinthis
studyiseffectivelyatestofthenullhypothesis,inourcase,thattheintroductionofCCTV
camerashadnosignificantimpactoncrime.Thenullhypothesisistestedbycomparingthepre
andpostseries.Timeseriesanalysiscanalsobeusedtoestimatetheimpactthatthe
interventionhadontheseries.Inotherwords,iftheintroductionofCCTVcamerashasa
positive(ornegative)significantimpactoncrimerateswithinthetailoredviewshedofa
camera,whatistheestimateofthatimpact?Forexample,whenapoliceoperationtoreduce
burglarywasexaminedusingARIMAmodeling,itwasfoundthatthepolicehadreduced
burglariesinoneAustraliancitybyabout50perweek(Makkaietal.2004,Ratcliffe2008).
Whenexaminingtimeseries,morecommonapproachessuchasOrdinaryLeastSquares
(OLS)regressionarestatisticallyflawedandshouldbeavoided,becausetimeseriesdataviolate
theassumptionofindependenceofindividualevents.Inotherwords,atimeseriesisoften
comprisedofmeasurementsthatareinfluencedbypreviousperiodsintheseries(Ross1982,
Yaffee&McGee2000).Thiscouldbeduetoseasonalvariation(weknowthatviolentcrime
usuallyincreasesinsummermonths)orinterventions(risingcrimeratesoftentriggerapolice
reaction)(Langworthy1989,Lawtonetal.2005).TheadvantageofARIMAmodelingoverother
typesofregressiondiscontinuityapproachistheabilityofARIMAmodelstoincorporatea
measureoftemporalcausationsuchthatpreviouseventcountshaveanimpactonfuture
Page|11
values(Block1984,Box&Jenkins1976,Chatfield1989).ARIMAmodelinghasbeenusedin
numerousevaluationsofcrimereductionschemes;includingburglarypreventionoperations
(Ratcliffe2002),vehicletheftprevention(Krimmel&Mele1998),heroincrackdowns
(Degenhardtetal.2005),andCompstat(Mazerolleetal.2007).
AlimitationofARIMAmodelingisthatthepreinterventionmodelrequiresasmanyas40
to50measurementpointsinordertoestablishapreinterventiontrend.Forthepilotproject,
wewereforcedtouseanalternativeapproachduetoalimitedhistoricaltrendhistory.Forthe
pilot,weemployedHierarchicalLinearModeling(HLM).Asstatedearlier,thisisatypeof
statisticalanalysisthatrecognizesnesteddatastructures,andlookedattimenestedwithin
cameralocations.
UsingHLMforthepilotstudyhadanumberofpracticalbenefits.First,itincludedvariables
thatstatisticallycontrolledforseasonaleffectsoncrime.Failingtocontrolforseasonaleffects
(i.e.thedifferenceincrimebetweenwinterandsummer)canlimitthevalueofanyfindings.
Thiscouldbeespeciallytrueforstreetcrimes,becausepeoplespendmoretimeoutsidewhen
theweatheriswarmer.Secondly,theanalysiscontrolledforpreexistingtemporaltrendsat
eachcameralocation.Forexample,ifregenerationwastakingplacenearacameralocation,
thiscouldsometimesmeanthatcrimewasslowlyfalling,anadditionaleffecttotheseasonal
variation.Failingtocontrolfortheseprecameraimplementationtrendscouldresultinunder
oroverestimatingthecameraseffectsoncrimepatterns.
TheresultsfromHLMareeasilyconvertedtoIncidentRateRatio(IRR)scoresandthisis
hugelybeneficialinconvertingratherdensestatisticaloutcomesintomeasuresthatthepublic
Page|12
andpolicymakerscanunderstand.Forexample,afindingthattheintroductionofCCTV
cameraswasassociatedwitha13%reductioninstreetcrimeintheviewshedofCCTVcameras,
isagreatdealeasiertoexplainthanlargetablesof(oftenincomprehensible)data.
Intheproposedstudy,wewillusebothmethods.Wehavearrangedforcrimeandcallfor
servicedatagoingbackto2003,thusenablingthestudytomodelenoughmonthsofcrimepre
interventionthatwewillbeabletoconstructARIMAmodels.Furthermore,wewillalso
constructaglobalmodelusingthesameHLMapproachasbeforeforbothcontinuitywiththe
pilotstudyandbecausetheuseofHLMasaregressiondiscontinuitymodelwillactasacross
checkontheARIMAapproach.
Acomparativestudywithnoncameralocations
Beyondthetwotimeseriestechniques,comparativemethodologiesareacommonwayto
conductquasiexperimentalstudies.Thisnormallyinvolvesacontrolgroupmeasurefrom
whichtocomparechangesbetweengroups.Thestudycannotrandomlyassigncamerasto
streetcornersbecausetheCCTVprojectisbeingimplementedunderconsiderablemediaand
politicaloversight;aproblemnotuncommontopreviousattemptstoevaluateCCTV(Honess&
Charman1992).Asaresult,thecamerasplannedforthecitywillbeimplementedinareasof
thehighestcrimeactivityoralongimportantcommercialcorridors.Furthermore,ifcameras
wereintroducedtolowercrimeareasforthepurposesofasocialscienceexperiment,thecost
ofsubsequentlyrelocatingthecamerastohighcrimeareaswouldbeprohibitive.
Thereforetocompensateforthis,wewillidentifynearequivalentlocationsforthemajor
camerasitesthroughloosecouplingmultiplecriteriadecisionmaking(Jankowski1995)asa
Page|13
precursortousingpropensitymatchingtoidentifycomparisonsites,duetopropensity
matchingsabilitytocorrectforsampleselectionbiasduetoobservabledifferencesbetween
thetreatmentandcomparisongroups(Dehejia&Wahba2002:151).Giventheconstraints
thatcamerasarelikelytobeimplementedinhighcrimeareas,andthatcomparisonareashave
toresideoutsideofthebufferareasforanycameras,wewillaimtomatchwithreplication,a
processbywhichthenearestcomparisonunitisused,irrespectiveofwhetheritisalsoa
comparisonunitforanothercamera.Thishasanumberofadvantages,includingthatitwill
mostlikelyimprovetheprecisionoftheestimates,andreducesthelikelihoodofcomparison
areaorderselectionintroducingselectionbiasintotheprocess(Rosenbaum,1995).
Wewillalsoimprovetheprocessbyreducingthedimensionalityofthecomparisonareasby
identifyingmajorcrimetypesandthenusinggeneralizedsocioeconomicdemographicsderived
frombroadindices.Thiscapacitytolimitthenumberofcriteriaenteringthematching
procedurewillallowanumberofvariablestoenterthedecisionmakingprocesswithout
permittingasinglefactortooverinfluencetheselectionprocess.Directregression
measurementswilltheninformtheoutcomeofthispartofthestudy.
Aspatialstudyexaminingpotentialdisplacementordiffusion
CCTVcamerasmayormaynothaveanimpactinthetargetarea;however,itispossiblethat
camerasmayalsohaveanimpactonneighboringareasthatarenotdirectlyunderthe
surveillanceofacamera.Thetermdisplacementisusedtoindicatewhencamerasdisplace
crimeactivityoutoftheirviewandintonearbyareas(Cornish&Clarke1989,Green1995,
Ratcliffe2002,Weisburd&Green1995).Thiscanhappenwhenoffendersdecidetheriskof
Page|14
operatingwithinthesightofacameraistoogreat,andmovecriminalactivitytoanearby
location.BarrandPease(1990:278)considereddisplacementasbothafrustratingsideeffect
andapredictableeffectofspecificpoliciesandamanipulativetoolofcrimecontrol;
howeverothershavearguedthattherearestillnetbenefitstoacrimepreventioninitiative
evenifdisplacementoccurs(Ratcliffe2002,Clarke&Weisburd1994).Thisisbecausethe
amountofcrimedisplacedrarely,ifever,exceedsorevenequalstheamountofcrimereduced
atthetargetsite(Hesseling1994).
Itisalsopossiblethatadiffusionofbenefitscanoccur(Clarke&Weisburd1994,Ratcliffe&
Makkai2004,Weisburdetal.2006).Thishappenswhenthebeneficialeffectofacrime
preventioninitiativespillsoverintosurroundingareas.Whilemanycrimeprevention
practitionersassumethatdisplacementisthemostlikelyoutcome,researchsuggeststhat
diffusionofbenefitsisamorelikelyoutcomefromasuccessfulcrimepreventioninitiative.
Inthisstudy,BowersandJohnsons(2003)weighteddisplacementquotient(WDQ)willbe
employedtodeterminewhetherornotcrimedisplacementordiffusionofbenefitshastaken
place.ThedeterminationofaWDQfirstrequirestheresearchertodeterminethreeoperational
areas;thetargetareawherethecrimereductionstrategyhasbeendeployed(inthiscase,CCTV
cameraviewsheds),abufferareathatisestimatedtobethemostlikelylocationthatcrime
wouldbedisplacedto,andacontrolareathatactsasacheckongeneralcrimetrendsthatare
affectingtheregioningeneral.Theequationfortheweighteddisplacementquotientisas
follows,
WDQ=(Bt1/Ct1 Bt0/Ct0)/(At1/Ct1 At0/Ct0)
(1)
Page|15
whereAisthecountofcrimeeventsinthetargetarea,Bisthecountofcrimeeventsinthe
bufferarea,Cisthecountofcrimeeventsinthecontrolarea,t1isthetimeoftheintervention,
andt0isthepreinterventiontimeperiod(Bowers&Johnson2003).Theexaminationofthe
differencebetweenthebufferandcontrolareasfromthepreinterventiontotheintervention
(orpostintervention)periodprovidesthemeasureofdisplacementordiffusionintothebuffer
area,whilethedifferencesbetweenthetargetandcontrolarearatiosatbothtimesprovides
themeasureofsuccessfortheintervention(JohnsonandBowers2003).Theequationat(1)is
thereforecomprisedofbothaBufferDisplacementMeasure(Bt1/Ct1 Bt0/Ct0)andaSuccess
Measure(At1/Ct1 At0/Ct0).ApositiveBufferDisplacementMeasureisindicativeofpotential
displacement,whileanegativevalueindicatespossiblediffusionofbenefits.ApositiveSuccess
Measureindicatesthatcrimedidnotimproveasaresultoftheintervention,whileanegative
SuccessMeasuresuggeststhepoliceoperation(orotherformofintervention)wassuccessfulin
reducingcrime.
Thisapproachrequiresthedesignationoftwoareasaroundeachcamerasite.Thefirstarea
isdesignatedthetargetarea theareawherethecamerasareexpectedtohaveapositive
effect.Forpan,tiltandzoom(PTZ)cameras,wewillwork(aswedidforthepilotstudy)with
PhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment(PPD)officerstomaptheindividualviewshedsofthecameras
bypanningandzoomingthecamerasanddiscussingactiveviewingareaswiththeofficers.
Wewillthendesignatebufferareasaroundeachcamera.CornishandClarke(1987)
conceptualizeddisplacementfromtheperspectiveofrationalchoicetheory.Fromtheir
examinationofthechoicesmadebyoffendersinthedecisiontocommitcrimesandtheir
Page|16
choiceoftargets,theybelievedthatdisplacementcouldbestbeexplainedandunderstoodby
concentratingontheoffenderspersonaldecisionsandchoicesmadeinthecommissionof
crime.Thedecisions,opportunities,costsandbenefitsassociatedwithparticularoffenses,in
CornishandClarkesview,worktoestablishtheconfinesofdisplacementwithindifferent
categoriesofoffense.Ifthisisthecase,thenitbecomeslessplausibletojustifyageneralized
approachtodisplacement.Inotherwords,standardbuffersthatspreadoutfromaCCTV
cameraarenotappropriate.Rather,thetheoreticalgroundworkrequirespractitionersand
researcherstobeopentothepossibilitythatdisplacementmayormaynotoccurwithdifferent
spatiotemporal(andotherdisplacementtypology)characteristicsfordifferentcrimetypesand
situations.
Thisraisesthespecterthatdisplacementareas placesordistancesthatoffenderswould
naturallybedisplacedto maynotexist;withthecorollarythatthespatialcontextofthewider
environmentsurroundingacrimepreventionoperationmustbeconsidered.Theseareasare
likelytobeplacesinthesurroundingneighborhoodofthecameraswherecrimeactivitycould
potentiallybedisplaced.Thebufferareaisalsoazonewherepotentialdiffusionofbenefits
couldoccur.Thiscanhappenwhenthecamerasexertabenefittosurroundingareasbeyond
theirtargetarea,andhappenswhenoffendersmoveoutofthegeneralareaofthecamera,or
offendersatunviewedareascurtailtheiractivitybecausetheythinkthecameracanstillsee
them.
WewillvisiteachsitewithPPDofficersanddiscussthespatialconstraintsoflikelybuffer
areaswithpatrolofficersfamiliarwiththelocationontheground.Thislocalcontactlocal
Page|17
contextapproachenablesustoincorporateintoourtargetandbufferareassimilarsetsof
crimepronecharacteristicsthatattractedtheneedforacamerainthefirstplace,
characteristicsthatwouldbelikelytargetsforspatialdisplacement.
Finally,asacontrolongeneraltrendsinthesurroundingareasbeyondthetargetandbuffer
area,wedesignatethesurroundingpolicedistrict(s)asthecontrolarea.Thecontrolareavaries
foreachcamera.
Auniqueaspectofthisapplicationovereveryotherattempttoexaminethelevelofcrime
aroundCCTVcamerasisthecustomizationofthecameraviewshedareathatwewillconduct
foreachcamera.Theidentificationoftargetandbufferareasthatactuallyreflectcamera
viewshedsandlikelyoffenderresponseisnotanissuethatcanbelefttogenericmeasuressuch
asuniformbuffersaroundeachcamera.Rather,wewillexamineindividualcameraviewsheds,
aswasdoneinourpilotstudyinPhiladelphia.Figure1showsaTempleUniversitygraduate
studentworkingwithaPhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmentofficertomaptheexactcontoursofthe
viewablearea.Fromthis,discussionwithdistrictofficersenabledustomapuniqueareas,as
showninFigure2.Inthissecondfigure,thecameraslocationsareidentifiedaswhitecrosses,
whiletightpolygonsshowthelimitedviewshedofcamerasalongsurroundingstreets.The
viewshedisuniqueforeachcamera,aptlydemonstratingthelimitationoffixedbuffers,an
approachcommonlytakenintheresearchliterature.
Regularfieldobservationsofcameralocationstoconfirmimplementation
criteria
Page|18
Initialvisitstocameralocationsareessential.AsPawsonandTilleypointedout,toofew
evaluationsofcrimepreventionschemesfailtounderstandtheunderlyingcontextofthe
environmentoftheevaluation(Pawson&Tilley1994,Pawson&Tilley1997).Theseinitialvisits
willbemadewithpatrolofficersfromthePPDdistrictinwhichthecameraissituated.Wewill
combinethefindingsofdiscussionswiththepatrolofficersandwithcameraoperatorsatpolice
headquarterstodeterminethesizeandshapeofbothviewshed(target)andbufferareas.
Regularfollowupvisitsareplannedtoeverycameralocationeverymonthalongwith
contactwithDistrictpersonnel.Thisisimportantinordertoestablishiftheenvironmenthas
changedinanyway;forexample,havenewstoresopened,hastheroadbeenclosedfor
repairs,havefloweringtreesimpededtheviewofthecamera?Someofthisinformationcanbe
gatheredfromthecontactwithcameraoperatorsatPoliceDepartmentHeadquarters(see
Figure1),howevertherearebenefitstoaccessinglocalknowledgethatareessentialtogetting
animprovedunderstandingofthecontextofthesetspace(toadaptagangresearchterm
fromTitaetal.2005)aroundeachcamera.
ItisalsovaluabletomaintainregularcontactwithDistrictpersonneltoseeiftheyhave
noticedchangesinoffenderbehaviorinthearea,anexpectedadaptationgiventhe(albeit
limited)researchinthisarea(Mazerolleetal.2002).Overtime,thisrichsourceofqualitative
informationwillinformtheresultsofthequantitativestudy,andwilldirectlyfeedintothe
interpretationofthefindingsoftheresearch.
PatrolofficerswillbeselectedbythePPDwiththecriteriaoffindingofficersineachDistrict
whoarefamiliarwiththearea,haveworkedthereforsometime,andwhoareknowledgeable
Page|19
aboutboththecrimepatternsforthecameraarea,aswellastheknownoffendersforeach
site.ResearcherswillalsoattendthePPDCompstatmeetings.Thesemeetingsarenowclosed
tothepublicandmediabecauseindividualoffendersandcriminalintelligencemattersarenow
discussedatthemeeting,howevertheresearchteamhaslonghadastrongrelationshipwith
theleadershipofthePPDandwehaveopenaccesstothismeeting.
Interviewswithcameraoperatorsandkeystakeholders
InfurtheranceofthesitevisitsandcontactwithDistrictpersonnelatthecameralocations,
wewillinterviewcameraoperatorsatthebeginningandendoftheproject,aswellasthe
leadershipofthePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmentandinformationtechnologymanagersforthe
city.Thesewillbeindepth,semistructuredinterviews,structuredaroundGreenhalghetal.s
(2004)conceptualmodelforinnovationdiffusionandwillidentifytherelevantrolesofkey
factorsattheintrapersonal,agencyandcontextuallevels.Thesekeypersoninterviewswill
generatesuggestionsaboutpotentialcultural,structural,andincentivechangesthatmay
facilitatebetterintegrationofCCTVtechnologyintotheoperationalplanningofthecity.Most
importantly,theywillprovidearich,qualitativepictureoftheuseofcamerasacrossthecity,a
picturethatwillinformandinfluenceourinterpretationofthequantitativefindings.
Topicsfordiscussionwillemphasizetherelationshipandlevelsofcontactwithlocalpolice,
animportantfindingfromBritishqualitativeresearchintoCCTVimplementation(Goold,2004),
andoperatingconditionsregardingnumbersofcamerasviewedatanyonetimeandthetime
spentoneachscreenagain,anissueidentifiedintheresearchliterature(Fyfe&Bannister
1996).
Page|20
Evaluation summary
AswithmostCCTVimplementations,thePhiladelphiaexperimentisunabletotake
advantageofarandomizedcontrolexperimentduetotheconstraintsofpoliticsandcost.There
arepoliticalimperativesinthatthestudycannotrandomlyassigncamerastotriallocationsthat
arenotintheworstcrimehotspotsbecausetheCCTVprojectisbeingimplementedunder
considerablemediaandpoliticaloversight:thisisanimportantprojectforthecity.
Furthermore,ifcameraswereintroducedtolowercrimeareasforthepurposesofasocial
scienceexperiment,thecostofsubsequentlyrelocatingthecamerastohighcrimeareaswould
beprohibitiveandnotacostthatcanbeincorporatedintothisgrant.
However,themultimethoddesignthatwehaveproposedaddressesallofthe
requirementsofastrongquasiexperimentaldesignandwouldrankhighlyontheMaryland
ScaleofEvaluationResearch(Farrington2002,Shermanetal.1998)andspecificallyaddress
issuesofselectionbiasinthecameralocations.TheuseofARIMAinterruptedtimeseries
analysisandHLM(employedhereasaregressiondiscontinuitytool)bothaddressissuesof
temporaltrendrelationshipsthatarenotreliablymeasuredbynormalregressionmethods.The
techniqueswewillemployarebothstatisticallyrobustandwillresultinmeaningfulandreliable
findingsthatcanbeconvertedintomeasurablecrimereductionoutcomesthatpractitioners
andcrimepreventionprofessionalsconsideringCCTVwillbeabletounderstand.
Furthermore,theidentificationthroughmulticriteriapropensitymatchingofcomparable
streetcornerswillallowadirectcomparisonwithquasirandomizedcontrollocations,andthe
introductionofBowersandJohnsonsWeightedDisplacementQuotientasthemechanismto
Page|21
evaluatedisplacementordiffusionwilladdressaparticularlycommonquestiondirectlyand
withmethodologicalrigor,basedoncustomizedspatialparametersateachcameralocation.
Finally,thescaleoftheimplementationacrossPhiladelphiathesixthlargestcityinthe
countryprovidessufficientlevelsofcriminalactivityandlocationstoestablishreliable
measuresthatarestatisticallyvalid.
areafortheUS.Thisinformationwillprovidecrucialinputstocostbenefitanalysesconducted
toanswerwhetherCCTVsbenefitsoutweighthecosts.Theresearchwillalsobeabletoconfirm
ordenythecommonmythofdisplacement(Ratcliffe2002),andclearlyarticulatethe
implicationsofcameraimplementationfornotjustcameraareas(i.e.,targetareas),butalso
adjacentareas(i.e.,bufferareas)andeventhesurroundingneighborhoods.
Page|23
Earlytasksinvolvereestablishingcontactandconfirmingdataarrangementswiththe
PhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment,andidentifyingandinterviewingtheliaisonofficerswewill
workwithinallofthepolicedistrictswherecamerasfunction(upto25policedistricts).
Fieldworkcommencesearly,inthesecondmonthoftheproject,wherewevisitandmap
CCTVcameralocations,andworkatpoliceheadquartersandthePPDcameraoperatorsto
identifyviewshedsforcameras.Furthermore,wewillliaisewiththedistrictofficerstoconfirm
orcorrecttheareaschosentobebothtargetandbufferareas.
WorkloadwillbedistributedbetweenRatcliffeandGroff,eachaccompaniedbyagraduate
student.Thisspreadstheworkload,butitalsoenablesthegraduatestudentstobeintimately
involvedwitheveryaspectoftheproject.TheDepartmentofCriminalJusticeatTemple
Universityisregularlyrankedinthetop10ofCriminologyandCriminalJusticegraduate
programs,andintegrationofourgraduatestudentsintoallofourprojectsisonewaythatwe
mentorfutureresearchers.
Quantitativeworkcommenceswithpreimplementationdatagatheringandprocessing
priortothebuildingoftheinitialARIMAtimeseriesmodelsofthepreinterventiontimeseries.
WewillalsoworkwithSPSSandArcGIStoconductmulticriteriadecisionmakingand
propensitymatchingforcomparisonsites.Muchofthisworkisscheduledforthesummerof
2010,whenbothRatcliffeandGroffcandedicatedtheirfulltimeactivitytothesetasks.Atthe
sametime,wewillcontinueregularlymonthlyvisitstocamerasites(predominantlytheworkof
thegraduatestudents).Forsafetyreasons,researcherswillconductcamerasitevisitsofbuffer
andtargetzonesinpairs.
Page|24
Aftercompletionoftherequiredendofyearreport,wewillcompletedatagatheringforat
leastoneyearofpostimplementationateverysite.Thesedatawillfeedintothecomplete
ARIMAinterruptedtimeseriesanalysisandwewillbeabletousecomparisonanalysiswithall
ofthematchingsitesidentifiedfromthepropensitymatching.Withthecompletionofthe
WeightedDisplacementQuotientanalysiswewillbeinapositiontocompiletheinitial
evaluationresultsandreportthesebacktothePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmentandtothecity
DeputyMayorforPublicSafetybythesummerof2011.Wehopethatearlyresultswillbe
availablebythetimeoftheIACPannualconference,andtheNIJtechnologydaythatprecedes
theconference.
Withtheinitialquantitativefindings,wewillinterviewDistrictliaisonofficersregardingthe
findingsandalsointerviewcameraoperatorsregardingtheoutcomesidentified.Thefinal
reportwillbeacomprehensivemixedmodelevaluation(quantitative/qualitative).
Dissemination strategy
Thetargetaudienceforthefindingsofthisresearchiscrimepreventionpractitioners,city
managersandpoliceofficerslookingtoCCTVtosolvetheircrimeproblems.Asaresult,the
traditionalmodelofdisseminatingacademicresearchislargelyunhelpfulingettingthese
findingsdisseminatedtothetargetaudience.
However,academicresearch(bothatconferencesandinpeerreviewedjournals)does
provideanopportunitytoestablishthelegitimacyfortheresearchthatcanthenbeusedto
enhancethedecisionsthatcitymanagersmake.Asaresult,wewillinitiallyseektodisseminate
Page|25
thefindingsonatleastonepeerreviewedacademicjournalarticle,andattheannualmeeting
oftheAmericanSocietyofCriminology.
Withthereassurancethatthisacademiccheckupprovides,wewillthenmovetoasecond
disseminationphasethatwillincludepublicationstargetedtotheaudienceweseek.For
example,weanticipatebeingabletosubmitarticlestoLawEnforcementTechnologymagazine,
PoliceChiefmagazine,andtoattendconferencesthataretargetedmoretowardsouraudience.
InthiscaseweanticipatepresentingthefindingsattheAcademyofCriminalJusticeSciences
conference,andattheNationalInstituteofJusticetechnologydaythatprecedesthe
InternationalAssociationofChiefsofPoliceconference.
Thenationscitymanagersareclearlyakeyspecificaudience,andwewillseektwoavenues
tospreadthisresearch.Firstweaimtopublishanarticleregardingthisresearchinthe
LeadershipBulletinoftheNationalExecutiveInstituteAssociates,apublicationthatiscopiedto
graduatesoftheFBINationalAcademyandmembersofboththeMajorCitiesChiefs
AssociationandtheMajorCountySheriffsAssociation.Secondly,wewillseektopresentthe
findingsofourresearchattheannualconferencemeetingoftheInternationalCity/County
ManagementAssociation,anationalbodybasedinWashingtonDCwithalargemembership.
Theirannualmeetingfor2011willbeinWisconsin,andabudgetitemforthisisincluded.
Finally,wewillestablishawebsitehousedattheDepartmentofCriminalJusticewebsiteat
TempleUniversitythatdetailstheresearchandcontainslinkstothefinalreportandother
publications.Thiswillbearesourceforpractitionersattownsandcitiesthatarestartingthe
processwithawebsearch.Theaimofthisistobringtheresearchandtheresultstothenotice
Page|26
ofpeoplewhousewebsearchesastheirpredominantresearchtool.Thelinkfromthe
DepartmentofCriminalJusticewillensurethatwithinafewweeks,websearchbotswillfind
andcataloguethepages.
Page|27
Figures
Figure1.TempleUniversitygraduatestudentTravisTaniguchi(left)workswithadetective
fromthePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmenttoestablishindividualviewpointparametersforeach
PTZcamerainthecityduringthepilotproject.Eachcameraviewmustbeexaminedtoidentify
obstructions,viewsheds,realisticdistanceestimatesandcameraoperabilityconstraints.
Page|28
Figure2.TargetandBufferareasaroundthreeCCTVcamerasnearTempleUniversity
campus,PhiladelphiaPA.Thewhitecrossshowsthecameralocation,whiletheimmediate
irregularshapedcrosscenteredonthecamerashowsthateachcamerahasadistinctand
uniqueviewshedarea.Thelargerheavylineindicatestheestimatedbufferarea,againunique
inshapeandsizetoeachcamerasite.
Page|29
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Page|32
Page|33
Listofkeypersonnel
DrJerryH.Ratcliffe
Professor,DepartmentofCriminalJustice,TempleUniversity,PhiladelphiaPA.
DrElizabethGroff
AssistantProfessor,DepartmentofCriminalJustice,TempleUniversity,Philadelphia,PA.
Page|34
Rsumsofkeypersonnel
JerryRatcliffe
DrJerryRatcliffeisProfessorofCriminalJusticewiththeDepartmentofCriminalJustice,
TempleUniversity,Philadelphia.InapreviouslifehewasapoliceofficerwiththeMetropolitan
PoliceinLondon(UK)whereheservedforanumberofyearsonpatrolduties,inanintelligence
andinformationunit,andasamemberoftheDiplomaticProtectionGroup.Duetoasevere
wintermountaineeringaccidentwhileiceclimbingintheScottishHighlands,heleftthepolice
after11yearsofservice.HecompletedaB.Sc.withhonorsinGeographyandGISatthe
UniversityofNottingham(UK)andhasaPh.D.fromthesameinstitution.
Asalecturerinpolicing(intelligence)withCharlesSturtUniversitybasedattheNewSouth
WalesPoliceCollegeinAustralia,herangraduateprogramsincriminalintelligence,andfora
numberofyearscoordinatedAustralia'sNationalStrategicIntelligenceCourse.DrRatcliffewas
alsoaseniorresearchanalystwiththeAustralianInstituteofCriminology,whereheconducted
oneofthefirstevaluationsofanintelligenceledpolicingoperation.In2007,DrRatcliffewas
awardedtheProfessionalServiceAwardforoutstandingcontributionstocriminalintelligence
analysisbytheInternationalAssociationofLawEnforcementIntelligenceAnalysts(IALEIA).
Hehaspublishedover50researcharticlesandfourbooksincluding:'StrategicThinkingin
CriminalIntelligence'(FederationPress,2004,secondedition2009);'GISandCrimeMapping'
(Wiley,2005)and'PolicingIllegalDrugMarkets'(CriminalJusticePress,2005).Hismostrecent
book,IntelligenceLedPolicing'waspublishedbyWillanPublishinginMarch2008.Recent
researcharticleshaveexaminedshootingpatternsinPhiladelphia,streetcornerdrugdealingin
Camden,NJ,anddrugganginvestigationsbytheNewJerseyStatePolice.
Ofparticularrelevancetothisresearchproject,isthatProfessorRatcliffeisauthorofthe(COPS
Office)CenterforProblemOrientedPolicingsresponseguide,VideoSurveillanceofPublic
Spaces.ThisreportcombinedametaanalysisoftheavailableliteratureonCCTVwitha
practitionersguide.ThereportwritingprocessidentifiedalackofqualityCCTVevaluations,
thatthisproposedprojectisanattempttorectify.
Afullresumewithpublicationsinavailableonrequest(butnotincludedinthisapplicationas
withpublicationsandconferencepresentationsitrunstomorethan20pages),oronlineat
www.jratcliffe.net.
ElizabethGroff
DrElizabethGroffjoinedtheTempleUniversityDepartmentofCriminalJusticeinAugust2007.
PriortojoiningtheCriminalJusticeDepartment,Dr.Groffwasfrom2002to2007aSenior
ResearchAssociateattheInstituteforLawandJustice(ILJ).From19982002shewasaSocial
ScienceAnalystattheNationalInstituteofJusticesCrimeMappingResearchCenter.Shehas
Page|35
alsobeentheGISCoordinatorfortheCharlotteMecklenburgPoliceDepartmentinCharlotte,
NC.Dr.GroffreceivedherB.S.andM.A.degreesingeographyfromtheUniversityofNorth
CarolinaatCharlotteandPh.D.ingeographyfromtheUniversityofMarylandatCollegePark.
ShealsohasanM.A.incriminologyandcriminaljusticefromtheUniversityofMarylandat
CollegePark.
Dr.Groffsprimaryresearchinterestsareincrimeandplace;modelinggeographicalinfluences
onhumanactivity;agentbasedmodelingasamethodology;crimeprevention;andpolicing.
Hercurrentresearchprojectsinclude:(1)amicrolevellongitudinalstudyofcrimeinSeattle,
WashingtonwithDr.DavidWeisburdandDr.SueMingYang;(2)exploringtheuseofsimulation
modelsforunderstandingstreetrobberyandtestingtheory;(3)examiningtheimpactsof
technologyacquisitionsinlawenforcementagencieswithDr.TomMcEwen;and(4)amicro
levellongitudinalstudyoftheplacecharacteristicsrelatedtowherejuvenilescommitcrimein
Seattle,WashingtonwithDr.DavidWeisburdandDr.NancyMorris.
JournalPublications:
Groff,E.R.(2008).AddingtheTemporalandSpatialAspectsofRoutineActivities:AFurther
TestofRoutineActivityTheory.SecurityJournal,21(12):95116.
Groff,E.R.2007.'Situating'SimulationtoModelHumanSpatioTemporalInteractions:An
ExampleUsingCrimeEvents.TransactionsinGIS,11(4):507530.
Groff,E.R.2007."SimulationforTheoryTestingandExperimentation:AnExampleUsing
RoutineActivityTheoryandStreetRobbery."JournalofQuantitativeCriminology23:75
103.
Groff,E.R.andT.McEwen.2007."IntegratingDistanceIntoMobilityTriangleTypologies."
SocialScienceComputerReview25:210238.
Groff,E.R.,B.Kearley,P.Beatty,H.Fogg,H.Couture,andJ.Wartell.2005."ARandomized
ExperimentalStudyofSharingCrimeDatawithCitizens:DoMapsProduceMoreFear?"
JournalofExperimentalCriminology1:87115.
Beckman,K.,L.Wyckoff,E.R.Groff,andP.Beatty.2004.TrendsinPoliceResearch:ACross
sectionalAnalysisofthe2001Literature,PolicePracticeandResearch5(2):165189,
2004.
Groff,E.R.,andN.G.LaVigne.2001.MappinganOpportunitySurfaceofResidentialBurglary,
JournalofResearchinCrimeandDelinquency38(3):257278.
BookChapters:
Groff,E.R.,D.WeisburdandN.Morris(Forthcoming2008).WheretheActionisatPlaces:
ExaminingSpatioTemporalPatternsofJuvenileCrimeatPlacesUsingTrajectory
AnalysisandGIS.InD.Weisburd,W.BernascoandG.Bruinsma(eds),PuttingCrimein
itsPlace:UnitsofAnalysisinSpatialCrimeResearch.SpringerVerlag.
Groff,E.R.2008.CharacterizingtheSpatioTemporalAspectsofRoutineActivitiesandthe
GeographicDistributionofStreetRobbery.InL.Liu&J.Eck(Eds.),ArtificialCrime
Page|36
AnalysisSystems:UsingComputerSimulationsandGeographicInformationSystems.
IdeaGroup:Hershey,PA.
Groff,E.R.,andT.McEwen.2005.DisaggregatingtheJourneytoHomicide.InF.Wang(ed.),
GeographicInformationSystemsandCrimeAnalysis.IdeaGroup:Hershey,PA.
Groff,E.R.,andN.G.LaVigne.2002.ForecastingtheFutureofPredictiveCrimeMapping.InN.
Tilley(ed.),AnalysisforCrimePrevention(Vol.13,pp.2958).CriminalJusticePress:
Monsey,NY.
Groff,E.R.,andN.G.LaVigne.2001.EvolutionofCrimeMappingintheUnitedStates:From
theDescriptivetotheAnalytic.InA.HirschfieldandK.Bowers(eds),Mappingand
AnalysingCrimeData:LessonsFromResearchAndPractice(pp.203221).Taylorand
Francis:NewYork.
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ListofpreviousandcurrentNIJawards
Principalinvestigator,Ratcliffe,JH,Astandaloneapplicationtodetectthenearrepeat
phenomenoninlocalandregionalcrimedata,NationalInstituteofJustice200607,grant
number2006IJCXK006,$95,350.
CoPrincipalinvestigator,Rengert,GFandRatcliffe,JH,GeographicToolstoImproveOfficer
SafetyinCorrectionalInstitutions.NationalInstituteofJusticegrant200205,grantnumber
2002MUMU0016,$397,394.
CoPrincipalInvestigator,Weisburd,DL,Groff,ERandJones,G,"SmartPoliceDeployment:
EvaluatingtheUseofAutomatedVehicleLocatorTechnologiesinPolicing."NationalInstituteof
Justicegrant20072009,grantnumber2007IJCXK153,$235,421.
PrincipalInvestigator,Groff,ER,ModelingtheDynamicsofStreetRobberytoInformPolicyand
Prevention.NationalInstituteofJusticegrant20052008,grantnumber2005IJCX0015,
$141,163.
CoPrincipalInvestigator,Weisburd,DL,Groff,ER,"ExplainingDevelopmentalCrime
TrajectoriesatPlaces:AStudyofCrimeWavesandCrimeDropsatMicroUnitsof
Geography."NationalInstituteofJusticegrant20052008,grantnumber2005IJCX0006,
$271,882.
CoPrincipalInvestigator,McEwen,TandGroff,ER,DistancetoCrime:AnalyzingandMapping
ViolentCrime.NationalInstituteofJusticegrant20032006,grantnumber2003IJCX0150,
$100,487.
Letterofcooperation/supportfromthePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment
Seenexttwopages
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CLARIFICATIONONGRADUATESTUDENTTUITION
Intheoriginalapplication,webudgetedfor$43,176ofgraduatestudenttuitiontosupportour
graduateresearchassistants.Sincethattime,TempleUniversityhasclarifiedthetuitionratesfor
theforthcomingyear.Inlightofthat,ourrevisedcalculationisasfollows:
Graduatestudenttuitionpercredithourissetat$590forinstatestudentsand$861foroutof
state(seeCollegeofLiberalArtsfiguresat
http://www.temple.edu/bursar/about/tuitionrates.htm).Webudgetedonthelowerrate.
Templegraduateclassesarethreecredithoursperclass,thereforeeachclassis3x590=1770.
Wesupportthemuptothreeclassespersemester,thereforeeachsemester3x1770=5310.
Therearetwosemestersperyear=2x5310=10,620peryearperstudent.
Therearetwostudentsallocatedtotheprojectthereforeyear1costis2x10,620=21,240.
Weareunabletopredictthelikelyincreaseintuitiongiventhecurrentfinancialclimate;howevera
conservativeestimateofa3%riseintuitioncostsforthesecondyearoftheprojectwouldincrease
theyeartwotuitionfrom21,240x1.03=21,877.
Addingyearoneandtheyeartwoprojectionresultsin21,240+21,877=43,117.