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APPLICATION FOR

OMB Approval No. 0348-0043


APPLICATION IDENTIFIER

2. DATE SUBMITTED
07/23/2009

1.TYPE OF SUBMISSION

3. DATE RECEIVED BY STATE

STATE APPLICATION IDENTIFIER

4. DATE RECEIVED BY FEDERAL AGENCY

FEDERAL IDENTIFIER

Application Non-Construction

5. APPLICANT INFORMATION
Legal Name

Organizational Unit

Temple University

College of Liberal Arts


Name and telephone number of the person to be contacted on matters involving
this application

(city, state, and zip code)

19122-6099
7. TYPE OF APPLICANT
6. EMPLOYER IDENTIFICATION NUMBER (EIN)

State related inst of higher ed

8. TYPE OF APPLICATION

9. NAME OF FEDERAL AGENCY

National Institute of Justice

New

10. CATALOG OF FEDERAL DOMESTIC ASSISTANCE


Number:

16.560

CFDA Title:

National Institute of Justice Research, Evaluation,


and Development Project Grants

11. DESCRIPTIVE TITLE OF APPLICANT'S PROJECT

CAN VIDEO SURVEILLANCE REDUCE CRIME?


QUANTIFYING THE SIZE AND GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT
OF CCTVS IMPACT

12. AREAS AFFECTED BY PROJECT


Philadelphia, PA
14. CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT(S) OF

13. PROPOSED PROJECT


Start Date:
01/01/2010

Ending Date:

a. Applicant

12/31/2011

PA01

15. ESTIMATED FUNDING


a. Federal

$486,161

b. Applicant

$0

c. State

$0

d. Local

$0

e. Other

$0

f. Program Income

$0

g. Total

$486,161

b. Project

PA01

16. IS APPLICATION SUBJECT TO REVIEW BY STATE


EXECUTIVE ORDER 12372 PROCESS?

Program is not covered by E.O. 12372

17. IS THE APPLICANT DELINQUENT ON ANY FEDERAL DEBT?


N

18. TO THE BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE AND BELIEF, ALL DATA IN THIS APPLICATION/PREAPPLICATION ARE TRUE AND
CORRECT, THE DOCUMENT HAS BEEN DULY AUTHORIZED BY THE GOVERNING BODY OF THE APPLICANT AND THE
APPLICANT WILL COMPLY WITH THE ATTACHED ASSURANCES IF THE ASSISTANCE IS REQUIRED.
a. Typed Name of Authorized Representative

b. Title

c. Telephone number

Director
d. Signature of Authorized Representative
Previous Editions Not Usable

e. Date Signed
Standard Form 424 (Rev 4-88)
Prescribed by OMB Circular A-102

CANVIDEOSURVEILLANCEREDUCECRIME?
QUANTIFYINGTHESIZEANDGEOGRAPHICEXTENT
OFCCTVSIMPACT

DepartmentofCriminalJustice |TempleUniversity

Page|i

Abstract
ClosedCircuitTelevision(CCTV)isanappliedtechnologythatseekstoreducecrimeby
increasingtheperceivedriskofcapture(Ratcliffe2006:8).Whiletherearenonational
estimatesontheextentofCCTVacrossAmerica,newspaperaccountssuggestthatCCTV
camerasarebeingimplementedatarateneverseenbefore.Forexample,SanFranciscohas
spentcloseto$1mon74camerasat25locations,andafurther25camerasareplanned(Bulwa
2008);andWashingtonDCplansa$4.5millionexpansionofitssurveillancesystem(Klein
2008).Thisrapidandunprecedentedexpansionofvideosurveillancetechnologyisnotjust
limitedtothemajorurbanareas(Farrington&Welsh2007).Reductionsintechnologycostand
aperceptionthatCCTVisacosteffectivecrimepreventiontoolhavedriveninvestmentinvideo
surveillanceinmunicipalareasacrossAmerica.
Forallthisenthusiasmforvideosurveillance,therehasbeenalackofhighquality,
independentevaluationstudies(Eck1998,Greenberg&Roush2009).Astoundingly,when
FarringtonandWelsh(2007)conductedarecentmetaanalysisofevaluationsofCCTVincity
andtowncenters,theycouldonlyfindasinglestudyfromtheUSthatwasmethodologically
andstatisticallyrobustenoughtowarrantinclusionintheirreport.ThissingleUSstudy
examinedanundisclosednumberofunmonitoredcamerasinthreeareasofCincinnati,Ohio;
camerasthatusedtechnologydatingfromearly1999(Mazerolleetal.2002).
TownsandcitiesacrosstheUSarespendingaphenomenalamountofmoneyonCCTV.
Giventhecurrententhusiasm,thereisanurgentneedforalargescale,empiricallysoundand
methodologicallyrobustevaluationofCCTVcamerasintheurbanenvironment.
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Inlightofarecentsuccessfulpilotproject,weproposetoconductalargescale,multi
method,quasiexperimentalresearchstudythatwillbespatiallytailoredtotheviewshedof
eachof220camerasinPhiladelphia,PA.Unliketraditionalspatialapproachesthatsimply
measurecrimeoutfromacameratoanarbitrarilyselecteddistance,individuallyconstructed
polygonsforeachcamerasitewillbenestedwithinbufferareastodetectdisplacementand/or
diffusionofbenefitstosurroundingareas.Advancedinterruptedtimeseriesmodelsthatcan
incorporatevaryingimplementationdatesofdifferentcameraswillbepopulatedwithcontrols
forseasonalityandlongtermcrimetrends,andfouryearsofpriorcrimehistoryinthecity.
Fieldobservationsateachsiteandqualitativeinterviewswithpolicecameraoperatorsacross
varyingshiftswillcombinewiththequantitativeworktoproduceadefinitiveevaluation,and
createabestpracticeguideforcrimepreventionpracticewithCCTV.

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Resubmit response
Thisapplicationwassubmittedoneyearagoasapplication200891640PAIJwiththesame
projectname(Canvideosurveillancereducecrime?Quantifyingthesizeandgeographicextentof
CCTVsimpact).Forsection1(UnderstandingoftheProblemandItsImportance)andsection2(Quality
andTechnicalMerit)thereviewersfoundNorelevantweaknesseswereevidentinthisapplicants
responsetothissectionoftheApplication.
Forsection3(ImpactoftheProposedProject)thereviewerswrotethatWhilenotatrue
weakness,thereappearstobenoimmediatepotentialforcommercializationofthisprojects
deliverables.
Response:ThereisalreadysufficientcommercializationofCCTVtofulfillthenationsneedfor
videosurveillancesystems.Thebroaderquestion,thatwefeelismuchmorepertinent,is;whatisthe
sizeandgeographicextentofanydisorderandcrimebenefitsofCCTV,ifany?Ifastrong
methodologicalstudysuchasweproposeiscapableofdemonstratingabenefit,thentherewillbean
increaseincitiespursuingcommercialCCTVsystems.
Forsection4(Capabilities,DemonstratedProductivity,andExperienceofApplicants)the
reviewersfoundNorelevantweaknesseswereevidentinthisapplicantsresponsetothissectionofthe
Application.

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Forsection6(DisseminationStrategy)thereviewersfoundNothingwasmentionedinthe
applicationthatwouldindicateanyspecialeffortstobetakentogettheirfindingstothenationscity
managers.
Response:Thisisaperfectlyreasonablecriticismandwehavethisyearincludedtwo
disseminationactivitiesthatwouldtargetthenationscitymanagers.First,weplantopublishan
articleregardingthisresearchintheLeadershipBulletinoftheNationalExecutiveInstituteAssociates,
apublicationthatiscopiedtograduatesoftheFBINationalAcademyandmembersofboththeMajor
CitiesChiefsAssociationandtheMajorCountySheriffsAssociation.Secondly,wewillseektopresent
thefindingsofourresearchattheannualmeetingoftheInternationalCity/CountyManagement
Association,anationalbodybasedinWashingtonDCwithalargemembership.Theirannualmeeting
for2011willbeinWisconsin,andabudgetitemforthisisincluded.

Finally,wewouldliketoexpressourthankstothereviewersfromthefirstreview,whosummarizedour
applicationthusNIJshouldhavethehighestlevelofconfidencethatthesolicitationrequirementswill
bemet,ifnotexceeded.Intheinterveningperiod,wehaveworkedevenmorecloselywiththe
PhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmentandarecurrentlyengagedinasignificantcitywidefootbeatpolicing
experimentwiththem.Theexperimentwillconcludebythetimethisprojectwouldcommence,butit
demonstratesthatwemaintainexcellentrelationswiththePoliceDepartmentandNIJshouldfeelas
confidentinthecompletionofthisresearchasthereviewersfeltlastyear.

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Contents
ABSTRACT..................................................................................................................................................III

RESUBMITRESPONSE..................................................................................................................................V

VII

CONTENTS.................................................................................................................................................

PURPOSE,GOALS,ANDOBJECTIVES.............................................................................................................
OBJECTIVES...........................................................................................................................................................2

REVIEWOFRELEVANTLITERATURE..............................................................................................................

RESEARCHDESIGNANDMETHODS.............................................................................................................. 9

ALONGITUDINALSTUDYEMPLOYINGINTERRUPTEDTIMESERIESANALYSES.......................................................................10



ACOMPARATIVESTUDYWITHNONCAMERALOCATIONS...............................................................................................13


ASPATIALSTUDYEXAMININGPOTENTIALDISPLACEMENTORDIFFUSION...........................................................................14


REGULARFIELDOBSERVATIONSOFCAMERALOCATIONSTOCONFIRMIMPLEMENTATIONCRITERIA.........................................18


INTERVIEWSWITHCAMERAOPERATORSANDKEYSTAKEHOLDERS....................................................................................20

EVALUATIONSUMMARY............................................................................................................................21


IMPLICATIONSFORCRIMINALJUSTICEPOLICYANDPRACTICE....................................................................22


MANAGEMENTPLANANDORGANIZATION................................................................................................23


DISSEMINATIONSTRATEGY........................................................................................................................25



FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................................28


REFERENCES...............................................................................................................................................30


OTHERAPPLICATIONREQUIREMENTS........................................................................................................33

DATAARCHIVINGSTRATEGY....................................................................................................................................33



LISTOFKEYPERSONNEL..........................................................................................................................................34


RSUMSOFKEYPERSONNEL..................................................................................................................................35


LISTOFPREVIOUSANDCURRENTNIJAWARDS............................................................................................................38


LETTEROFCOOPERATION/SUPPORTFROMTHEPHILADELPHIAPOLICEDEPARTMENT..........................................................38

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Purpose, goals, and objectives


ThehistoryofCCTVtechnologyisoneofrapidevolutionfromstatic,lowresolution
cameras,tohighqualitytechnologysolutionsthatcanpan,tiltandzoomatthecommand,
througheitherwirelessinterfaceorfiberopticcable,ofremoteoperatorsusuallyconnectedto
apoliceradionetwork.Althoughcameratechnologycontinuestoevolve,thevastmajorityof
camerasystemsplannedfortheUSaresimilartothetechnologytobeevaluatedinthis
researchproject;pan,tiltandzoom(PTZ)camerasconnectedtoapolicecontrolroom.This
leveloftechnologyisfullydevelopedandreadilyapplicableinanoperationalcriminaljustice
setting,andiseithercurrentlyorsoontobeutilizedacrossthecountryinmanytownsand
cities.Thatthematurityofthetechnologyisapparentmakesthelackofahighquality
evaluationeverconductedevenmoredifficulttofathom.
Therefore,thepurposeofthisstudyistoconductthefirst,largescale,multimethod
evaluationofCCTVusingrobustinterruptedtimeseriestechniquesappliedtorecordedcrime,
intheUnitedStates.
Thegoalofthisresearchistouseadvancedtimeseriesandmicrospatialevaluationtools
thatarecapableofmeasuringcrimewithinthespecificviewshedsofCCTVcamerastoestimate
thepreventionbenefitsofcamerasonrecordedpropertycrime,violentcrime,anddisorder
incidents.
Asecondgoalistocomplementthequantitativeresearchwithqualitativestudiesthat
enhanceourunderstandingofthestatisticaloutcomewithacontextualunderstandingofwhy
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crimeincreasedordecreasedincameraandbufferareas,basedonfieldobservationsat
camerasitesandinterviewswithkeypersonnelandstakeholders.

Objectives
Maptheexactenvironmentofeachof220camerasacrossPhiladelphia,PA
Establishexactspatialviewshedsforeachcamera,andliaisewithdistrictofficers
andcameraoperatorstomapthelikelydisplacementzonesaroundeachcamera
Buildmonthlytimeseriesmodelsofdisorderevents,propertycrimeandviolent
crimeforuptofouryearspriortocameraimplementation
Continueregularvisitstoallcameraandbufferareasduringtheimplementation
periodtomonitorthecontextoftheurbanenvironment
Assesschangesinviolentcrime,propertycrimeanddisorderactivityintargetareas,
bufferareasandcontrolareasusingavarietyofrobuststatisticalmethods(ARIMA
timeseriesanalysis,WeightedDisplacementQuotientanalysis,comparisonanalysis
withcontrolsites)
Conductqualitativeinterviewswithcameraoperators,policedepartment
leadership,andpatrol(district)officersinpolicedistrictswithcameras
Disseminatefindingsnotonlywithinacademia,butthroughoutthepractitioner
communitywithpublicationsandpresentationsspecificallytargetedtoITmanagers
andpoliceexecutivesratherthancollegeprofessors
Completefinalreportandaccompanyingpublications
Archivedataforfutureprojectreplication

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Review of relevant literature


ThevastmajorityofCCTVschemesarecurrentlybeingimplementedinpublicareasofcities
andtowns.Forexample,WashingtonDChasalreadyspent$4monstreetintersectioncameras,
andlookstospendaboutthesameagainexpandingthecameranetwork(Klein2008),andNew
YorkCityhasalreadyspentover$25monapublicsurveillancecameranetwork.These
implementationsareindicativeofagrowingtrendtowardtheuseofCCTVtoimprovepublic
safetyincitycentersandpublicareas.Philadelphia,Pennsylvania,isjoiningthistrendwithan
anticipatedimplementationof220camerasbyJune2009(thisprocessisabout50%complete
andaheadofschedule).Asaresult,thisprojectproposestoexaminecamerasimplementedin
publicareasandstreetintersectionsacrossPhiladelphia,PA.Thus,whilethereisamodest
researchhistoryofCCTVevaluationsinpublichousingareas,onpublictransportandincar
parks,thisliteraturereviewwillconcentrateoncityandtowncentercameraimplementations.
FromtheearliestwidescaleimplementationofCCTVtechnologyinthe1980s,many
evaluationshavelackedindependenceandhavebeeneitherconductedbycityagenciesor
technologycompaniesinvolvedinthescheme,bothofwhommaybeperceivedtohavevested
interestsintheevaluationoutcomes(Ratcliffe2006).Theearliestindependentevaluationofa
CCTVimplementationdatesfromKingsLynn,UK(Brown,1995)where19cameraswere
installedatpubliccarparksacrossthecity.Likemanystudiesthatfollowed,thisevaluationwas
methodologicallyweakandlackedcontrolsforlownumbersofinitialcrimesandforlongterm
temporaltrends.AsreportedinAppendixAofRatcliffe(2006),numerousstudieshavebeen
conductedthat,whileindependent,rangeinmethodologicalqualityfromweaktostrong.

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Methodologicallyweakstudieshavelackedcontrolareas,controlsforseasonalvariation,or
havelackedanymeasureofpotentialdisplacement(ordiffusion).
Theexistingevaluationliteraturehasconsiderablevariationinnotonlymethodology,but
alsooutcomemeasuresandindependentvariables.Someexaminetheimpactofcamerason
crimewithinadefineddistanceofCCTVcameras(Haradaetal.,2004),whileotherssurveyed
residentsincameraareasfortheirperceptionsofhowcrimehaschanged(Squires,2003).
Otherstudieshaveinterviewedkeystakeholders(Hood,2003)orexaminedemergencyroom
attendancelevelsrelatedtoassaults(Sivarajasingam,Shepherd,&Matthews,2003).
IrrespectiveofthenumerousuniversallyglowingreportsofCCTVintrademagazinesand
technologyperiodicals,thenumberofstatisticallysoundandindependentevaluationsis
substantiallysmaller.FarringtonandWelshs(2007)systematicreviewidentifiedfouressential
criteriaforinclusionintheirstudy:
1. CCTVwasthemaininterventionexamined;
2. Theoutcomemeasurewascrime;
3. Theevaluationhadaminimummethodologicaldesignthatincorporatedatleastbefore
andaftermeasuresofcrimeinexperimentalandcomparablecontrolareas;and
4. Therewasaminimumnumberofcrimes(20)recordedintheexperimentalareapriorto
theCCTVimplementation.
Withinthesebasicevaluationcriteria,theywereabletoidentify44studies,butonly22that
wereapplicabletocitycentersandpublicurbanareas.Ofthese22,17wereconductedinthe

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UK,2isScandinavia,and3fromtheUS;however,the3fromtheUSareactuallyon3locations
inCincinnati,Ohio,andarereportedinonesinglejournalarticle(Mazerolleetal.2002).
Furthermore,thissinglestudydoesnotusecrimeasanoutcomemeasure,butcallsforservice.
WhilethestudyconductedbyLorraineMazerolleandcolleaguesismethodologicallysoundand
empiricallysophisticated,theuseofcallsforserviceratherthanrecordedcrimebasicallymeans
thattherehasnotbeenasinglestudyofCCTVinAmericathatusesrecordedcrimeinpublic
spaceasanoutcomemeasureinamannerthatsatisfiesFarringtonandWelshssystematic
reviewcriteria.
Sinceourapplicationlastyeartherehas,however,beenoneUSstudyofnote.Greenberg
andRoush(2009)evaluatedaCCTVsystemataprivateapartmentcomplexinNewYork,NY.
Thoughhamperedbylowcrimecounts,theirmethodologicallysoundevaluationfoundthat
CCTVmaybemoderatelyeffectiveinpreventingminorcrimesbuttheresultsforseriouscrime
wereunclearbecauseofthedearthofseriouscrimetobeginwith.Itisworthnotingthateven
writingin2009,theynotedapaucityofAmericanstudies(2009:5)andoncallingformore
researchtheypointedoutthatbecausethebenefitsofreducingmajorcrimearegreaterthan
ofreducinglessercrimes,wesuggestthatfutureresearchfocusonareasinwhichseriouscrime
ratesarehigherthanintheirresearchedlocation(2009:22).Theresultsfromtheirprivate
apartmentcomplexmaynottranslatetothepublicspaceenvironmentsthatweseekto
examineinourstudyandwheremostCCTVsystemsareimplemented.Fortunately,with220
camerasacrossPhiladelphia,weanticipatesignificantlygreaterlevelsofviolentandserious
crimeonwhichtotesttheeffectivenessofCCTV.

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OftheCCTVreviewsfromoverseas,thevastmajoritystemfromtheUK.AsFarringtonand
Welshreportfromthe22studiesincludedintheirreview,tenhadpositiveoutcomesasregards
areductionincrime(orequivalentmeasure,forexamplecallsforservice),fivehadundesired
outcomes,andtheremainderhadnullormixedresults.Whileitmaybetemptingtosimply
translatetheseresultstotheUS(albeittheresultsaretoomixedintermsofoutcomeand
methodology),thereisaproblemwiththatapproach.AsAnderssonnotesThereisalsogood
reasontoweightheinternationalresultsandexperiencesagainstourownhistoryandour
currentsituationasregardstheuseofCCTV,whichareverydifferentfromthoseofcountries
liketheUnitedKingdom,forexample,whichhaslongbeendevelopinglargescaleCCTV
surveillanceasameansofcombatingterrorism(Andersson2007:6).
TheUKsattempttocombatterroristattacksfromtheProvisionalIRAspurrednumerous
technologysolutions,suchasCCTVacrossthepublictransportnetwork.Thiscameranetwork
datesbacktothemid1980s,butevaluationsofthesecamerashavelimitedapplicabilitytothe
modernUSexperience:thecameratechnologyhasadvancedsignificantlyduringthe
interveningyears,andalthoughweareinapost9/11homelandsecurityerathathasexpanded
thenumberofcamerasincitiessuchasNewYork,thevastmajorityoftownsandcitiesacross
thecountrystillimplementsurveillancetechnologytocombatstreetcrimeandproperty
offensesratherthanasacounterterrorismmeasure.Moreover,violentcrimerates(especially
shootingsandhomicides)intheUKaresignificantlylowerthanintheUSandthecrimedynamic
(intermsofthemixofstreetoffensesandpublicdisordercrime)isnotastransferabletotheUS
(Gill&Springs2005).Finally,thestreetpatterninmuchoftheUS(oftenbuiltonagridpattern

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rarelyseenintheUK)betterfavorsthelinearviewschemeofCCTVcameras,suggestingthat
camerasintheUSmayhavegreaterapplicabilitytotheexistinggeography.
TheliteratureonCCTVrarelyaddressesthetheoreticalperspectiveofcamerabenefit;in
otherwords,howdoesasurveillancesystemreducecrime?Drawingontheliteratureof
environmentalcriminology,Ratcliffe(2006)suggeststhatcamerasmayworktopreventcrimeif
twocriteriaaremet;theoffenderisawarethatthecameramaybewatchingtheiractivity,and
secondlythattheoffenderperceivesthattheriskofcapturebypolicemayoutweighthe
benefitsofthecrimetheyareconsidering.Ascrimepreventionisthereforeafeatureof
offenderperception,itmaybethatalthoughthecamerasmayonlybeabletoseeacertain
amountofpublicspace,offendersperceivethatthecamerascanobservetheiractivitytoa
greaterorlesserrange.Thechoiceisthereforetodefineevaluationareasbasedonpossible
offenderperceptionofcamerarange,orontheactualareathatthecameracanview.Inthis
researchwetaketheapproachofmappingtheactualareasthatthecamerascansee.Thisis
becauseoffenderperceptionisnotpossibletomeasurewithoutextensiveandexpensive
interviewing,andsecondlybecauseoffenderperceptionwillvaryfrompersontoperson.
Fortunately,asexplainedinalatersection,theweighteddisplacementquotientanalysisisable
toincorporateameasurefordiffusionordisplacement,intheeventofamisspecificationofthe
surveillancezone.Thiswillallowustomeasureanydiffusionofbenefitsordisplacementto
theneighboringareaaroundeachcamera,andtolimittheimpactofareaswheretheboundary
ofthetargetareadoesnotexactlymatchwithoffenderperception.Thisapproachis
significantlypreferabletothestandardmethodofestimatingcameraimpact.

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Ifthereisastandardmethod,thenitistouseasimplebufferthatdoesnotreflectthe
underlyinggeographyoftheurbanmosaicaroundcameralocations.Forexample,anumberof
studieshavemappedcrimeacertaindistancefromthecameras;Haradaandcolleagues(2004)
studyinaTokyoneighborhoodexaminedcrimeoutto50meters(164feet);Mazerolleand
colleagues(2002)bufferedregionsto200,500and1,000feetradiallyoutfromcameras;Sarno
etal.(1999)bufferedoutfor200meters(656feet);andarecentDCpoliceevaluation
examinedcrimewithin250feetofcameras,butdidnotconsiderdisplacement(Klein2008).
Theproblemwithexaminingcrimebycountingeventswithinacertainsetdistancefrom
everycameraisthatcameraimplementationhasasignificantimpactontheviewshedof
cameras,andnotwocamerashavethesamerangeofvision.Forexample,roadsigns,trees,
cameraheightandcameratechnologyallenhanceorlimittheviewablerangeofCCTVcameras.
Thusarobustapproachisonewheretheactualviewablegeographyofthestreetscapeunder
surveillancebecomestheexperimentalarea,anareathatistailoredtoeachcamera.Mapping
theactualviewshedofeachcamera,asweproposetodo,isthemostempiricallysound
approach,yetithasnotbeenconductedinanyevaluationstudyofmerit.
Insummary,theliteraturereviewfindsthefollowingkeypoints:
Thereisacompletelackofempiricallysound,crimefocusedevaluationsofpublicstreet
CCTVcamerasintheUnitedStates(US).
MuchoftheexistingliteraturefromoverseasmaylackrelevancetotheUS
environment,giventhedifferentcrimedynamicfromBritishurbancenterstoUScities.

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Muchoftheevaluationliteraturelackstailoringtotheindividualviewshedsofthe
cameras,simplyemployingafixeddistancearoundcamerasadistancethatvariesby
study.
Existingevaluationsareoftenmethodologicallyweak,lackingcontrolsforseasonality,
limitedhistoricaldataonwhichtoestimateprecameratrends,andrarelyexplicitly
testingfordisplacement.
Thestudyweproposeresolvesalloftheseissues,anddoessoovermorecamerasthanever
beforeexamined.

Research design and methods


Ourresearchproposalbuildsonourexperiencewithapilotprojectconductedinthelatter
halfof2007.InconjunctionwiththePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment,apilotevaluationof18
camerasat10pilotsitesacrossPhiladelphiawasconductedduring2007.Forthepilot,weused
twoyearsofcrimedata,geocodedandmappedtoindividuallyconstructedpolygonareasfor
exactcameraviewsheds.Theseviewshedswereestablishedbysitevisitsandbytrackingand
panningeachcameraduringvisitstothecontrolroominPhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment
Headquarters.ThequantitativeanalysiswasconductedusingHierarchicallinearmodeling
(HLM),atypeofstatisticalanalysisthatrecognizesnesteddatastructures.Atthemostbasic
levelthiscanbethoughtof,forexample,asindividualsnestedwithinaneighborhoodorpolice
beatsnestedwithinpolicedistricts.Thisanalysisalsoappliestorepeatedobservationsacross
individualsorlocations.Inthepilotstudy,theanalysislookedattimenestedwithincamera

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locations.Theresearchincorporatedcontrolsforlongtermtrendsandseasonalityandfound
thattheintroductionofcameraswasassociatedwitha13percentreductionincrime.This
researchhasbeenacceptedforpublicationinJusticeQuarterly(Ratcliffeetal,inpress).Based
onourexperienceswiththepoliceandthepilotprojectaswellastheclearneedforamore
expansiveevaluation,wenowseektoconductanextendedresearchprojectonamuchgreater
scale.
Weproposeamultimethod,multiprongedapproachforthisextendedproject.Our
researchdesignemploysanumberofapproachestoevaluationtheimpactofCCTVcameras,
specifically;
Alongitudinalstudyemployinginterruptedtimeseriesanalyses;
Acomparativestudywithnoncameralocations;
Aspatialstudyexaminingpotentialdisplacementordiffusion;
Regularfieldobservationsofcameralocationstoconfirmimplementationcriteria;and
Interviewswithcameraoperatorsandkeystakeholderstointerpretthequantitative
results.

Alongitudinalstudyemployinginterruptedtimeseriesanalyses
Wewillemploytwotimeseriesmethodologiestocrossreferencethequantitativeimpact
ofCCTVimplementationonrecordedcrimeandcallsforservice(CFS).Itisimportantto
examinebothcrimeandCFSdata.Recordedcrimeisoftenthemeasurebywhichmunicipalities
measuresuccessofacrimepreventionintervention,whileCFSareausefulindicationofpolice

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workloadandmuchoftheminorpublicdisorderthatplaguesurbanareasbutthatdoesnotrise
tothelevelofrecordedcrime.Wewillexaminebothdatasources.
OnemethodologyisAutoRegressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(ARIMA)timeseries
modeling.Theanalysisofatimeseriesasthequasiexperimentaldesigntobeemployedinthis
studyiseffectivelyatestofthenullhypothesis,inourcase,thattheintroductionofCCTV
camerashadnosignificantimpactoncrime.Thenullhypothesisistestedbycomparingthepre
andpostseries.Timeseriesanalysiscanalsobeusedtoestimatetheimpactthatthe
interventionhadontheseries.Inotherwords,iftheintroductionofCCTVcamerashasa
positive(ornegative)significantimpactoncrimerateswithinthetailoredviewshedofa
camera,whatistheestimateofthatimpact?Forexample,whenapoliceoperationtoreduce
burglarywasexaminedusingARIMAmodeling,itwasfoundthatthepolicehadreduced
burglariesinoneAustraliancitybyabout50perweek(Makkaietal.2004,Ratcliffe2008).
Whenexaminingtimeseries,morecommonapproachessuchasOrdinaryLeastSquares
(OLS)regressionarestatisticallyflawedandshouldbeavoided,becausetimeseriesdataviolate
theassumptionofindependenceofindividualevents.Inotherwords,atimeseriesisoften
comprisedofmeasurementsthatareinfluencedbypreviousperiodsintheseries(Ross1982,
Yaffee&McGee2000).Thiscouldbeduetoseasonalvariation(weknowthatviolentcrime
usuallyincreasesinsummermonths)orinterventions(risingcrimeratesoftentriggerapolice
reaction)(Langworthy1989,Lawtonetal.2005).TheadvantageofARIMAmodelingoverother
typesofregressiondiscontinuityapproachistheabilityofARIMAmodelstoincorporatea
measureoftemporalcausationsuchthatpreviouseventcountshaveanimpactonfuture

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values(Block1984,Box&Jenkins1976,Chatfield1989).ARIMAmodelinghasbeenusedin
numerousevaluationsofcrimereductionschemes;includingburglarypreventionoperations
(Ratcliffe2002),vehicletheftprevention(Krimmel&Mele1998),heroincrackdowns
(Degenhardtetal.2005),andCompstat(Mazerolleetal.2007).
AlimitationofARIMAmodelingisthatthepreinterventionmodelrequiresasmanyas40
to50measurementpointsinordertoestablishapreinterventiontrend.Forthepilotproject,
wewereforcedtouseanalternativeapproachduetoalimitedhistoricaltrendhistory.Forthe
pilot,weemployedHierarchicalLinearModeling(HLM).Asstatedearlier,thisisatypeof
statisticalanalysisthatrecognizesnesteddatastructures,andlookedattimenestedwithin
cameralocations.
UsingHLMforthepilotstudyhadanumberofpracticalbenefits.First,itincludedvariables
thatstatisticallycontrolledforseasonaleffectsoncrime.Failingtocontrolforseasonaleffects
(i.e.thedifferenceincrimebetweenwinterandsummer)canlimitthevalueofanyfindings.
Thiscouldbeespeciallytrueforstreetcrimes,becausepeoplespendmoretimeoutsidewhen
theweatheriswarmer.Secondly,theanalysiscontrolledforpreexistingtemporaltrendsat
eachcameralocation.Forexample,ifregenerationwastakingplacenearacameralocation,
thiscouldsometimesmeanthatcrimewasslowlyfalling,anadditionaleffecttotheseasonal
variation.Failingtocontrolfortheseprecameraimplementationtrendscouldresultinunder
oroverestimatingthecameraseffectsoncrimepatterns.
TheresultsfromHLMareeasilyconvertedtoIncidentRateRatio(IRR)scoresandthisis
hugelybeneficialinconvertingratherdensestatisticaloutcomesintomeasuresthatthepublic
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andpolicymakerscanunderstand.Forexample,afindingthattheintroductionofCCTV
cameraswasassociatedwitha13%reductioninstreetcrimeintheviewshedofCCTVcameras,
isagreatdealeasiertoexplainthanlargetablesof(oftenincomprehensible)data.
Intheproposedstudy,wewillusebothmethods.Wehavearrangedforcrimeandcallfor
servicedatagoingbackto2003,thusenablingthestudytomodelenoughmonthsofcrimepre
interventionthatwewillbeabletoconstructARIMAmodels.Furthermore,wewillalso
constructaglobalmodelusingthesameHLMapproachasbeforeforbothcontinuitywiththe
pilotstudyandbecausetheuseofHLMasaregressiondiscontinuitymodelwillactasacross
checkontheARIMAapproach.

Acomparativestudywithnoncameralocations
Beyondthetwotimeseriestechniques,comparativemethodologiesareacommonwayto
conductquasiexperimentalstudies.Thisnormallyinvolvesacontrolgroupmeasurefrom
whichtocomparechangesbetweengroups.Thestudycannotrandomlyassigncamerasto
streetcornersbecausetheCCTVprojectisbeingimplementedunderconsiderablemediaand
politicaloversight;aproblemnotuncommontopreviousattemptstoevaluateCCTV(Honess&
Charman1992).Asaresult,thecamerasplannedforthecitywillbeimplementedinareasof
thehighestcrimeactivityoralongimportantcommercialcorridors.Furthermore,ifcameras
wereintroducedtolowercrimeareasforthepurposesofasocialscienceexperiment,thecost
ofsubsequentlyrelocatingthecamerastohighcrimeareaswouldbeprohibitive.
Thereforetocompensateforthis,wewillidentifynearequivalentlocationsforthemajor
camerasitesthroughloosecouplingmultiplecriteriadecisionmaking(Jankowski1995)asa
Page|13

precursortousingpropensitymatchingtoidentifycomparisonsites,duetopropensity
matchingsabilitytocorrectforsampleselectionbiasduetoobservabledifferencesbetween
thetreatmentandcomparisongroups(Dehejia&Wahba2002:151).Giventheconstraints
thatcamerasarelikelytobeimplementedinhighcrimeareas,andthatcomparisonareashave
toresideoutsideofthebufferareasforanycameras,wewillaimtomatchwithreplication,a
processbywhichthenearestcomparisonunitisused,irrespectiveofwhetheritisalsoa
comparisonunitforanothercamera.Thishasanumberofadvantages,includingthatitwill
mostlikelyimprovetheprecisionoftheestimates,andreducesthelikelihoodofcomparison
areaorderselectionintroducingselectionbiasintotheprocess(Rosenbaum,1995).
Wewillalsoimprovetheprocessbyreducingthedimensionalityofthecomparisonareasby
identifyingmajorcrimetypesandthenusinggeneralizedsocioeconomicdemographicsderived
frombroadindices.Thiscapacitytolimitthenumberofcriteriaenteringthematching
procedurewillallowanumberofvariablestoenterthedecisionmakingprocesswithout
permittingasinglefactortooverinfluencetheselectionprocess.Directregression
measurementswilltheninformtheoutcomeofthispartofthestudy.

Aspatialstudyexaminingpotentialdisplacementordiffusion
CCTVcamerasmayormaynothaveanimpactinthetargetarea;however,itispossiblethat
camerasmayalsohaveanimpactonneighboringareasthatarenotdirectlyunderthe
surveillanceofacamera.Thetermdisplacementisusedtoindicatewhencamerasdisplace
crimeactivityoutoftheirviewandintonearbyareas(Cornish&Clarke1989,Green1995,
Ratcliffe2002,Weisburd&Green1995).Thiscanhappenwhenoffendersdecidetheriskof

Page|14

operatingwithinthesightofacameraistoogreat,andmovecriminalactivitytoanearby
location.BarrandPease(1990:278)considereddisplacementasbothafrustratingsideeffect
andapredictableeffectofspecificpoliciesandamanipulativetoolofcrimecontrol;
howeverothershavearguedthattherearestillnetbenefitstoacrimepreventioninitiative
evenifdisplacementoccurs(Ratcliffe2002,Clarke&Weisburd1994).Thisisbecausethe
amountofcrimedisplacedrarely,ifever,exceedsorevenequalstheamountofcrimereduced
atthetargetsite(Hesseling1994).
Itisalsopossiblethatadiffusionofbenefitscanoccur(Clarke&Weisburd1994,Ratcliffe&
Makkai2004,Weisburdetal.2006).Thishappenswhenthebeneficialeffectofacrime
preventioninitiativespillsoverintosurroundingareas.Whilemanycrimeprevention
practitionersassumethatdisplacementisthemostlikelyoutcome,researchsuggeststhat
diffusionofbenefitsisamorelikelyoutcomefromasuccessfulcrimepreventioninitiative.
Inthisstudy,BowersandJohnsons(2003)weighteddisplacementquotient(WDQ)willbe
employedtodeterminewhetherornotcrimedisplacementordiffusionofbenefitshastaken
place.ThedeterminationofaWDQfirstrequirestheresearchertodeterminethreeoperational
areas;thetargetareawherethecrimereductionstrategyhasbeendeployed(inthiscase,CCTV
cameraviewsheds),abufferareathatisestimatedtobethemostlikelylocationthatcrime
wouldbedisplacedto,andacontrolareathatactsasacheckongeneralcrimetrendsthatare
affectingtheregioningeneral.Theequationfortheweighteddisplacementquotientisas
follows,
WDQ=(Bt1/Ct1 Bt0/Ct0)/(At1/Ct1 At0/Ct0)

(1)
Page|15

whereAisthecountofcrimeeventsinthetargetarea,Bisthecountofcrimeeventsinthe
bufferarea,Cisthecountofcrimeeventsinthecontrolarea,t1isthetimeoftheintervention,
andt0isthepreinterventiontimeperiod(Bowers&Johnson2003).Theexaminationofthe
differencebetweenthebufferandcontrolareasfromthepreinterventiontotheintervention
(orpostintervention)periodprovidesthemeasureofdisplacementordiffusionintothebuffer
area,whilethedifferencesbetweenthetargetandcontrolarearatiosatbothtimesprovides
themeasureofsuccessfortheintervention(JohnsonandBowers2003).Theequationat(1)is
thereforecomprisedofbothaBufferDisplacementMeasure(Bt1/Ct1 Bt0/Ct0)andaSuccess
Measure(At1/Ct1 At0/Ct0).ApositiveBufferDisplacementMeasureisindicativeofpotential
displacement,whileanegativevalueindicatespossiblediffusionofbenefits.ApositiveSuccess
Measureindicatesthatcrimedidnotimproveasaresultoftheintervention,whileanegative
SuccessMeasuresuggeststhepoliceoperation(orotherformofintervention)wassuccessfulin
reducingcrime.
Thisapproachrequiresthedesignationoftwoareasaroundeachcamerasite.Thefirstarea
isdesignatedthetargetarea theareawherethecamerasareexpectedtohaveapositive
effect.Forpan,tiltandzoom(PTZ)cameras,wewillwork(aswedidforthepilotstudy)with
PhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment(PPD)officerstomaptheindividualviewshedsofthecameras
bypanningandzoomingthecamerasanddiscussingactiveviewingareaswiththeofficers.
Wewillthendesignatebufferareasaroundeachcamera.CornishandClarke(1987)
conceptualizeddisplacementfromtheperspectiveofrationalchoicetheory.Fromtheir
examinationofthechoicesmadebyoffendersinthedecisiontocommitcrimesandtheir

Page|16

choiceoftargets,theybelievedthatdisplacementcouldbestbeexplainedandunderstoodby
concentratingontheoffenderspersonaldecisionsandchoicesmadeinthecommissionof
crime.Thedecisions,opportunities,costsandbenefitsassociatedwithparticularoffenses,in
CornishandClarkesview,worktoestablishtheconfinesofdisplacementwithindifferent
categoriesofoffense.Ifthisisthecase,thenitbecomeslessplausibletojustifyageneralized
approachtodisplacement.Inotherwords,standardbuffersthatspreadoutfromaCCTV
cameraarenotappropriate.Rather,thetheoreticalgroundworkrequirespractitionersand
researcherstobeopentothepossibilitythatdisplacementmayormaynotoccurwithdifferent
spatiotemporal(andotherdisplacementtypology)characteristicsfordifferentcrimetypesand
situations.
Thisraisesthespecterthatdisplacementareas placesordistancesthatoffenderswould
naturallybedisplacedto maynotexist;withthecorollarythatthespatialcontextofthewider
environmentsurroundingacrimepreventionoperationmustbeconsidered.Theseareasare
likelytobeplacesinthesurroundingneighborhoodofthecameraswherecrimeactivitycould
potentiallybedisplaced.Thebufferareaisalsoazonewherepotentialdiffusionofbenefits
couldoccur.Thiscanhappenwhenthecamerasexertabenefittosurroundingareasbeyond
theirtargetarea,andhappenswhenoffendersmoveoutofthegeneralareaofthecamera,or
offendersatunviewedareascurtailtheiractivitybecausetheythinkthecameracanstillsee
them.
WewillvisiteachsitewithPPDofficersanddiscussthespatialconstraintsoflikelybuffer
areaswithpatrolofficersfamiliarwiththelocationontheground.Thislocalcontactlocal

Page|17

contextapproachenablesustoincorporateintoourtargetandbufferareassimilarsetsof
crimepronecharacteristicsthatattractedtheneedforacamerainthefirstplace,
characteristicsthatwouldbelikelytargetsforspatialdisplacement.
Finally,asacontrolongeneraltrendsinthesurroundingareasbeyondthetargetandbuffer
area,wedesignatethesurroundingpolicedistrict(s)asthecontrolarea.Thecontrolareavaries
foreachcamera.
Auniqueaspectofthisapplicationovereveryotherattempttoexaminethelevelofcrime
aroundCCTVcamerasisthecustomizationofthecameraviewshedareathatwewillconduct
foreachcamera.Theidentificationoftargetandbufferareasthatactuallyreflectcamera
viewshedsandlikelyoffenderresponseisnotanissuethatcanbelefttogenericmeasuressuch
asuniformbuffersaroundeachcamera.Rather,wewillexamineindividualcameraviewsheds,
aswasdoneinourpilotstudyinPhiladelphia.Figure1showsaTempleUniversitygraduate
studentworkingwithaPhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmentofficertomaptheexactcontoursofthe
viewablearea.Fromthis,discussionwithdistrictofficersenabledustomapuniqueareas,as
showninFigure2.Inthissecondfigure,thecameraslocationsareidentifiedaswhitecrosses,
whiletightpolygonsshowthelimitedviewshedofcamerasalongsurroundingstreets.The
viewshedisuniqueforeachcamera,aptlydemonstratingthelimitationoffixedbuffers,an
approachcommonlytakenintheresearchliterature.

Regularfieldobservationsofcameralocationstoconfirmimplementation
criteria

Page|18

Initialvisitstocameralocationsareessential.AsPawsonandTilleypointedout,toofew
evaluationsofcrimepreventionschemesfailtounderstandtheunderlyingcontextofthe
environmentoftheevaluation(Pawson&Tilley1994,Pawson&Tilley1997).Theseinitialvisits
willbemadewithpatrolofficersfromthePPDdistrictinwhichthecameraissituated.Wewill
combinethefindingsofdiscussionswiththepatrolofficersandwithcameraoperatorsatpolice
headquarterstodeterminethesizeandshapeofbothviewshed(target)andbufferareas.
Regularfollowupvisitsareplannedtoeverycameralocationeverymonthalongwith
contactwithDistrictpersonnel.Thisisimportantinordertoestablishiftheenvironmenthas
changedinanyway;forexample,havenewstoresopened,hastheroadbeenclosedfor
repairs,havefloweringtreesimpededtheviewofthecamera?Someofthisinformationcanbe
gatheredfromthecontactwithcameraoperatorsatPoliceDepartmentHeadquarters(see
Figure1),howevertherearebenefitstoaccessinglocalknowledgethatareessentialtogetting
animprovedunderstandingofthecontextofthesetspace(toadaptagangresearchterm
fromTitaetal.2005)aroundeachcamera.
ItisalsovaluabletomaintainregularcontactwithDistrictpersonneltoseeiftheyhave
noticedchangesinoffenderbehaviorinthearea,anexpectedadaptationgiventhe(albeit
limited)researchinthisarea(Mazerolleetal.2002).Overtime,thisrichsourceofqualitative
informationwillinformtheresultsofthequantitativestudy,andwilldirectlyfeedintothe
interpretationofthefindingsoftheresearch.
PatrolofficerswillbeselectedbythePPDwiththecriteriaoffindingofficersineachDistrict
whoarefamiliarwiththearea,haveworkedthereforsometime,andwhoareknowledgeable
Page|19

aboutboththecrimepatternsforthecameraarea,aswellastheknownoffendersforeach
site.ResearcherswillalsoattendthePPDCompstatmeetings.Thesemeetingsarenowclosed
tothepublicandmediabecauseindividualoffendersandcriminalintelligencemattersarenow
discussedatthemeeting,howevertheresearchteamhaslonghadastrongrelationshipwith
theleadershipofthePPDandwehaveopenaccesstothismeeting.

Interviewswithcameraoperatorsandkeystakeholders
InfurtheranceofthesitevisitsandcontactwithDistrictpersonnelatthecameralocations,
wewillinterviewcameraoperatorsatthebeginningandendoftheproject,aswellasthe
leadershipofthePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmentandinformationtechnologymanagersforthe
city.Thesewillbeindepth,semistructuredinterviews,structuredaroundGreenhalghetal.s
(2004)conceptualmodelforinnovationdiffusionandwillidentifytherelevantrolesofkey
factorsattheintrapersonal,agencyandcontextuallevels.Thesekeypersoninterviewswill
generatesuggestionsaboutpotentialcultural,structural,andincentivechangesthatmay
facilitatebetterintegrationofCCTVtechnologyintotheoperationalplanningofthecity.Most
importantly,theywillprovidearich,qualitativepictureoftheuseofcamerasacrossthecity,a
picturethatwillinformandinfluenceourinterpretationofthequantitativefindings.
Topicsfordiscussionwillemphasizetherelationshipandlevelsofcontactwithlocalpolice,
animportantfindingfromBritishqualitativeresearchintoCCTVimplementation(Goold,2004),
andoperatingconditionsregardingnumbersofcamerasviewedatanyonetimeandthetime
spentoneachscreenagain,anissueidentifiedintheresearchliterature(Fyfe&Bannister
1996).

Page|20

Evaluation summary
AswithmostCCTVimplementations,thePhiladelphiaexperimentisunabletotake
advantageofarandomizedcontrolexperimentduetotheconstraintsofpoliticsandcost.There
arepoliticalimperativesinthatthestudycannotrandomlyassigncamerastotriallocationsthat
arenotintheworstcrimehotspotsbecausetheCCTVprojectisbeingimplementedunder
considerablemediaandpoliticaloversight:thisisanimportantprojectforthecity.
Furthermore,ifcameraswereintroducedtolowercrimeareasforthepurposesofasocial
scienceexperiment,thecostofsubsequentlyrelocatingthecamerastohighcrimeareaswould
beprohibitiveandnotacostthatcanbeincorporatedintothisgrant.
However,themultimethoddesignthatwehaveproposedaddressesallofthe
requirementsofastrongquasiexperimentaldesignandwouldrankhighlyontheMaryland
ScaleofEvaluationResearch(Farrington2002,Shermanetal.1998)andspecificallyaddress
issuesofselectionbiasinthecameralocations.TheuseofARIMAinterruptedtimeseries
analysisandHLM(employedhereasaregressiondiscontinuitytool)bothaddressissuesof
temporaltrendrelationshipsthatarenotreliablymeasuredbynormalregressionmethods.The
techniqueswewillemployarebothstatisticallyrobustandwillresultinmeaningfulandreliable
findingsthatcanbeconvertedintomeasurablecrimereductionoutcomesthatpractitioners
andcrimepreventionprofessionalsconsideringCCTVwillbeabletounderstand.
Furthermore,theidentificationthroughmulticriteriapropensitymatchingofcomparable
streetcornerswillallowadirectcomparisonwithquasirandomizedcontrollocations,andthe
introductionofBowersandJohnsonsWeightedDisplacementQuotientasthemechanismto
Page|21

evaluatedisplacementordiffusionwilladdressaparticularlycommonquestiondirectlyand
withmethodologicalrigor,basedoncustomizedspatialparametersateachcameralocation.
Finally,thescaleoftheimplementationacrossPhiladelphiathesixthlargestcityinthe
countryprovidessufficientlevelsofcriminalactivityandlocationstoestablishreliable
measuresthatarestatisticallyvalid.

Implications for criminal justice policy and practice


Wewillbeabletoexplainthebenefit(ornot)ofCCTVcamerasonpropertycrime,violent
crime,anddisorderactivity.Wewillalsobeabletocommentonthesettingandoperability
conditionsthatfavorgreatestCCTVbenefitaswellasaddressimplementationissues.The
qualitativeinformationwillprovidearichveinofcontextualintelligencethat,whenanalyzed,
willprovideamoreroundedpictureoftheprosandconsofCCTVimplementationandfleshout
thestoryunderlyingthequantitativeevaluationthatformsthecoreofthisapplication.
Byaddressingpropertycrimeanddisorderactivityalongwithviolentcrime,wewillbeable
toincreasethevalueoftheanalysistocitiesandtownsthatdonotnecessarilyhavetheviolent
crimeissuesthatplaguethelargercitiesinthecountry.Inotherwords,whilewebenefitfrom
evaluatingthistechnologyinalargeanddiversecity,thefindingswillbeofbenefittothewhole
country.
ThefinancialbenefitstocitiesandtownsofamoreeffectiveimplementationofCCTVare
potentiallystaggering,thoughdifficulttoestimate.Thisresearchwillprovidethefirstconcrete
measureofcrimereductionsbothintheimmediatecameraviewshedandinthesurrounding
Page|22

areafortheUS.Thisinformationwillprovidecrucialinputstocostbenefitanalysesconducted
toanswerwhetherCCTVsbenefitsoutweighthecosts.Theresearchwillalsobeabletoconfirm
ordenythecommonmythofdisplacement(Ratcliffe2002),andclearlyarticulatethe
implicationsofcameraimplementationfornotjustcameraareas(i.e.,targetareas),butalso
adjacentareas(i.e.,bufferareas)andeventhesurroundingneighborhoods.

Management plan and organization


ThisgrantisdesignedtocommenceinJanuary2010.Thecurrentimplementationstrategy
oftheCCTVcamerasinPhiladelphia,PA,isduetocompleteinstallationof220cameraswellin
advanceofthattime(pleaseseeletterfromPhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment),howeverevenif
thereisadelayforafewmonths,themanagementplanandtimelineareabletocopewitha
delay.Theevaluationmethodologyisdesignedtoberobustenoughandtoalevelof
sophisticationthatitcanstillfunctionwhencamerascomeonlineatdifferenttimes.
Fourstaffwillbeemployedonthisproject;DrRatcliffe,DrGroffandtwograduateresearch
assistantsfromtheDepartmentofCriminalJusticeatTempleUniversity.RatcliffeandGroffwill
leadtheprojectandshareadministrativeandgraduatestudentsupervisoryresponsibilities.
Thisbuildssomeredundancyintothemanagementoftheproject,andalsomaximizesthe
likelihoodthattheprojectwillbecompletedontimenophaseisdependentonasingle
person.

Page|23

Earlytasksinvolvereestablishingcontactandconfirmingdataarrangementswiththe
PhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment,andidentifyingandinterviewingtheliaisonofficerswewill
workwithinallofthepolicedistrictswherecamerasfunction(upto25policedistricts).
Fieldworkcommencesearly,inthesecondmonthoftheproject,wherewevisitandmap
CCTVcameralocations,andworkatpoliceheadquartersandthePPDcameraoperatorsto
identifyviewshedsforcameras.Furthermore,wewillliaisewiththedistrictofficerstoconfirm
orcorrecttheareaschosentobebothtargetandbufferareas.
WorkloadwillbedistributedbetweenRatcliffeandGroff,eachaccompaniedbyagraduate
student.Thisspreadstheworkload,butitalsoenablesthegraduatestudentstobeintimately
involvedwitheveryaspectoftheproject.TheDepartmentofCriminalJusticeatTemple
Universityisregularlyrankedinthetop10ofCriminologyandCriminalJusticegraduate
programs,andintegrationofourgraduatestudentsintoallofourprojectsisonewaythatwe
mentorfutureresearchers.
Quantitativeworkcommenceswithpreimplementationdatagatheringandprocessing
priortothebuildingoftheinitialARIMAtimeseriesmodelsofthepreinterventiontimeseries.
WewillalsoworkwithSPSSandArcGIStoconductmulticriteriadecisionmakingand
propensitymatchingforcomparisonsites.Muchofthisworkisscheduledforthesummerof
2010,whenbothRatcliffeandGroffcandedicatedtheirfulltimeactivitytothesetasks.Atthe
sametime,wewillcontinueregularlymonthlyvisitstocamerasites(predominantlytheworkof
thegraduatestudents).Forsafetyreasons,researcherswillconductcamerasitevisitsofbuffer
andtargetzonesinpairs.
Page|24

Aftercompletionoftherequiredendofyearreport,wewillcompletedatagatheringforat
leastoneyearofpostimplementationateverysite.Thesedatawillfeedintothecomplete
ARIMAinterruptedtimeseriesanalysisandwewillbeabletousecomparisonanalysiswithall
ofthematchingsitesidentifiedfromthepropensitymatching.Withthecompletionofthe
WeightedDisplacementQuotientanalysiswewillbeinapositiontocompiletheinitial
evaluationresultsandreportthesebacktothePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmentandtothecity
DeputyMayorforPublicSafetybythesummerof2011.Wehopethatearlyresultswillbe
availablebythetimeoftheIACPannualconference,andtheNIJtechnologydaythatprecedes
theconference.
Withtheinitialquantitativefindings,wewillinterviewDistrictliaisonofficersregardingthe
findingsandalsointerviewcameraoperatorsregardingtheoutcomesidentified.Thefinal
reportwillbeacomprehensivemixedmodelevaluation(quantitative/qualitative).

Dissemination strategy
Thetargetaudienceforthefindingsofthisresearchiscrimepreventionpractitioners,city
managersandpoliceofficerslookingtoCCTVtosolvetheircrimeproblems.Asaresult,the
traditionalmodelofdisseminatingacademicresearchislargelyunhelpfulingettingthese
findingsdisseminatedtothetargetaudience.
However,academicresearch(bothatconferencesandinpeerreviewedjournals)does
provideanopportunitytoestablishthelegitimacyfortheresearchthatcanthenbeusedto
enhancethedecisionsthatcitymanagersmake.Asaresult,wewillinitiallyseektodisseminate
Page|25

thefindingsonatleastonepeerreviewedacademicjournalarticle,andattheannualmeeting
oftheAmericanSocietyofCriminology.
Withthereassurancethatthisacademiccheckupprovides,wewillthenmovetoasecond
disseminationphasethatwillincludepublicationstargetedtotheaudienceweseek.For
example,weanticipatebeingabletosubmitarticlestoLawEnforcementTechnologymagazine,
PoliceChiefmagazine,andtoattendconferencesthataretargetedmoretowardsouraudience.
InthiscaseweanticipatepresentingthefindingsattheAcademyofCriminalJusticeSciences
conference,andattheNationalInstituteofJusticetechnologydaythatprecedesthe
InternationalAssociationofChiefsofPoliceconference.
Thenationscitymanagersareclearlyakeyspecificaudience,andwewillseektwoavenues
tospreadthisresearch.Firstweaimtopublishanarticleregardingthisresearchinthe
LeadershipBulletinoftheNationalExecutiveInstituteAssociates,apublicationthatiscopiedto
graduatesoftheFBINationalAcademyandmembersofboththeMajorCitiesChiefs
AssociationandtheMajorCountySheriffsAssociation.Secondly,wewillseektopresentthe
findingsofourresearchattheannualconferencemeetingoftheInternationalCity/County
ManagementAssociation,anationalbodybasedinWashingtonDCwithalargemembership.
Theirannualmeetingfor2011willbeinWisconsin,andabudgetitemforthisisincluded.
Finally,wewillestablishawebsitehousedattheDepartmentofCriminalJusticewebsiteat
TempleUniversitythatdetailstheresearchandcontainslinkstothefinalreportandother
publications.Thiswillbearesourceforpractitionersattownsandcitiesthatarestartingthe
processwithawebsearch.Theaimofthisistobringtheresearchandtheresultstothenotice
Page|26

ofpeoplewhousewebsearchesastheirpredominantresearchtool.Thelinkfromthe
DepartmentofCriminalJusticewillensurethatwithinafewweeks,websearchbotswillfind
andcataloguethepages.

Page|27

Figures
Figure1.TempleUniversitygraduatestudentTravisTaniguchi(left)workswithadetective
fromthePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartmenttoestablishindividualviewpointparametersforeach
PTZcamerainthecityduringthepilotproject.Eachcameraviewmustbeexaminedtoidentify
obstructions,viewsheds,realisticdistanceestimatesandcameraoperabilityconstraints.

Page|28

Figure2.TargetandBufferareasaroundthreeCCTVcamerasnearTempleUniversity
campus,PhiladelphiaPA.Thewhitecrossshowsthecameralocation,whiletheimmediate
irregularshapedcrosscenteredonthecamerashowsthateachcamerahasadistinctand
uniqueviewshedarea.Thelargerheavylineindicatestheestimatedbufferarea,againunique
inshapeandsizetoeachcamerasite.

Page|29

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ofbehavioraladaptationstoCCTV',SecurityJournal,15:1,pp.5975.
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Page|31

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TrendsandIssuesinCrimeandCriminalJustice,278,pp.16.
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Other application requirements


Dataarchivingstrategy
Weintendtoutilizeanarchivingstrategythatbothenablesreplicationofthestudyatsome
futurepoint,whileretainingthevitalrequirementofmaskingandnotretainingorrecording
theindividualdetailsofcrimevictimsorsurveyrespondents.Anadditionalrequirementisease
ofdataretrieval.Wethereforeseekastrategythatcombineseaseofretrievalwithdatastorage
oraggregatecrimedataanddeidentifiedsurveyandinterviewresponses.
WewillarchivetheArcGIS(ESRI)shapefilesforeachcameratargetarea,bufferareaand
controlareainthestandardPennsylvaniasouthprojectedcoordinatesystem.Wewillthen
retainanExcelspreadsheetwithindividualtabsidentifyingcameraareasandastandardflat
filerow/columndatabasewithmonthlycountsofcrimefrequencyforthevariouscrimetypes
examinedinthisstudy(violent,property,disorder,allcrime).Crimecountswillbeaggregated
bycountacrossallcamerasitesfrom2004totheendoftheproject.Asimplenumericidentifier
willlinkcrimefrequencycountstoshapefiles.Thiswillenableexternaloversightand
replication,whilestillretainingtheprojectaimsofsimpleretrieval.
Interviewdatawillberetainedascontemporaneousnotes,redactedtoremoveany
identifyinginformationorpersonalidentifiers.Theonlylinkinginformationwillbean
intervieweeidentifierthatisinbothfinalreportandinthearchivedinterviewnotes.

Page|33

Listofkeypersonnel

DrJerryH.Ratcliffe
Professor,DepartmentofCriminalJustice,TempleUniversity,PhiladelphiaPA.

DrElizabethGroff
AssistantProfessor,DepartmentofCriminalJustice,TempleUniversity,Philadelphia,PA.

Page|34

Rsumsofkeypersonnel
JerryRatcliffe
DrJerryRatcliffeisProfessorofCriminalJusticewiththeDepartmentofCriminalJustice,
TempleUniversity,Philadelphia.InapreviouslifehewasapoliceofficerwiththeMetropolitan
PoliceinLondon(UK)whereheservedforanumberofyearsonpatrolduties,inanintelligence
andinformationunit,andasamemberoftheDiplomaticProtectionGroup.Duetoasevere
wintermountaineeringaccidentwhileiceclimbingintheScottishHighlands,heleftthepolice
after11yearsofservice.HecompletedaB.Sc.withhonorsinGeographyandGISatthe
UniversityofNottingham(UK)andhasaPh.D.fromthesameinstitution.

Asalecturerinpolicing(intelligence)withCharlesSturtUniversitybasedattheNewSouth
WalesPoliceCollegeinAustralia,herangraduateprogramsincriminalintelligence,andfora
numberofyearscoordinatedAustralia'sNationalStrategicIntelligenceCourse.DrRatcliffewas
alsoaseniorresearchanalystwiththeAustralianInstituteofCriminology,whereheconducted
oneofthefirstevaluationsofanintelligenceledpolicingoperation.In2007,DrRatcliffewas
awardedtheProfessionalServiceAwardforoutstandingcontributionstocriminalintelligence
analysisbytheInternationalAssociationofLawEnforcementIntelligenceAnalysts(IALEIA).

Hehaspublishedover50researcharticlesandfourbooksincluding:'StrategicThinkingin
CriminalIntelligence'(FederationPress,2004,secondedition2009);'GISandCrimeMapping'
(Wiley,2005)and'PolicingIllegalDrugMarkets'(CriminalJusticePress,2005).Hismostrecent
book,IntelligenceLedPolicing'waspublishedbyWillanPublishinginMarch2008.Recent
researcharticleshaveexaminedshootingpatternsinPhiladelphia,streetcornerdrugdealingin
Camden,NJ,anddrugganginvestigationsbytheNewJerseyStatePolice.

Ofparticularrelevancetothisresearchproject,isthatProfessorRatcliffeisauthorofthe(COPS
Office)CenterforProblemOrientedPolicingsresponseguide,VideoSurveillanceofPublic
Spaces.ThisreportcombinedametaanalysisoftheavailableliteratureonCCTVwitha
practitionersguide.ThereportwritingprocessidentifiedalackofqualityCCTVevaluations,
thatthisproposedprojectisanattempttorectify.

Afullresumewithpublicationsinavailableonrequest(butnotincludedinthisapplicationas
withpublicationsandconferencepresentationsitrunstomorethan20pages),oronlineat
www.jratcliffe.net.

ElizabethGroff
DrElizabethGroffjoinedtheTempleUniversityDepartmentofCriminalJusticeinAugust2007.
PriortojoiningtheCriminalJusticeDepartment,Dr.Groffwasfrom2002to2007aSenior
ResearchAssociateattheInstituteforLawandJustice(ILJ).From19982002shewasaSocial
ScienceAnalystattheNationalInstituteofJusticesCrimeMappingResearchCenter.Shehas
Page|35

alsobeentheGISCoordinatorfortheCharlotteMecklenburgPoliceDepartmentinCharlotte,
NC.Dr.GroffreceivedherB.S.andM.A.degreesingeographyfromtheUniversityofNorth
CarolinaatCharlotteandPh.D.ingeographyfromtheUniversityofMarylandatCollegePark.
ShealsohasanM.A.incriminologyandcriminaljusticefromtheUniversityofMarylandat
CollegePark.

Dr.Groffsprimaryresearchinterestsareincrimeandplace;modelinggeographicalinfluences
onhumanactivity;agentbasedmodelingasamethodology;crimeprevention;andpolicing.
Hercurrentresearchprojectsinclude:(1)amicrolevellongitudinalstudyofcrimeinSeattle,
WashingtonwithDr.DavidWeisburdandDr.SueMingYang;(2)exploringtheuseofsimulation
modelsforunderstandingstreetrobberyandtestingtheory;(3)examiningtheimpactsof
technologyacquisitionsinlawenforcementagencieswithDr.TomMcEwen;and(4)amicro
levellongitudinalstudyoftheplacecharacteristicsrelatedtowherejuvenilescommitcrimein
Seattle,WashingtonwithDr.DavidWeisburdandDr.NancyMorris.

JournalPublications:

Groff,E.R.(2008).AddingtheTemporalandSpatialAspectsofRoutineActivities:AFurther
TestofRoutineActivityTheory.SecurityJournal,21(12):95116.
Groff,E.R.2007.'Situating'SimulationtoModelHumanSpatioTemporalInteractions:An
ExampleUsingCrimeEvents.TransactionsinGIS,11(4):507530.
Groff,E.R.2007."SimulationforTheoryTestingandExperimentation:AnExampleUsing
RoutineActivityTheoryandStreetRobbery."JournalofQuantitativeCriminology23:75
103.
Groff,E.R.andT.McEwen.2007."IntegratingDistanceIntoMobilityTriangleTypologies."
SocialScienceComputerReview25:210238.
Groff,E.R.,B.Kearley,P.Beatty,H.Fogg,H.Couture,andJ.Wartell.2005."ARandomized
ExperimentalStudyofSharingCrimeDatawithCitizens:DoMapsProduceMoreFear?"
JournalofExperimentalCriminology1:87115.
Beckman,K.,L.Wyckoff,E.R.Groff,andP.Beatty.2004.TrendsinPoliceResearch:ACross
sectionalAnalysisofthe2001Literature,PolicePracticeandResearch5(2):165189,
2004.
Groff,E.R.,andN.G.LaVigne.2001.MappinganOpportunitySurfaceofResidentialBurglary,
JournalofResearchinCrimeandDelinquency38(3):257278.

BookChapters:

Groff,E.R.,D.WeisburdandN.Morris(Forthcoming2008).WheretheActionisatPlaces:
ExaminingSpatioTemporalPatternsofJuvenileCrimeatPlacesUsingTrajectory
AnalysisandGIS.InD.Weisburd,W.BernascoandG.Bruinsma(eds),PuttingCrimein
itsPlace:UnitsofAnalysisinSpatialCrimeResearch.SpringerVerlag.
Groff,E.R.2008.CharacterizingtheSpatioTemporalAspectsofRoutineActivitiesandthe
GeographicDistributionofStreetRobbery.InL.Liu&J.Eck(Eds.),ArtificialCrime
Page|36

AnalysisSystems:UsingComputerSimulationsandGeographicInformationSystems.
IdeaGroup:Hershey,PA.
Groff,E.R.,andT.McEwen.2005.DisaggregatingtheJourneytoHomicide.InF.Wang(ed.),
GeographicInformationSystemsandCrimeAnalysis.IdeaGroup:Hershey,PA.
Groff,E.R.,andN.G.LaVigne.2002.ForecastingtheFutureofPredictiveCrimeMapping.InN.
Tilley(ed.),AnalysisforCrimePrevention(Vol.13,pp.2958).CriminalJusticePress:
Monsey,NY.
Groff,E.R.,andN.G.LaVigne.2001.EvolutionofCrimeMappingintheUnitedStates:From
theDescriptivetotheAnalytic.InA.HirschfieldandK.Bowers(eds),Mappingand
AnalysingCrimeData:LessonsFromResearchAndPractice(pp.203221).Taylorand
Francis:NewYork.

Page|37

ListofpreviousandcurrentNIJawards

Principalinvestigator,Ratcliffe,JH,Astandaloneapplicationtodetectthenearrepeat
phenomenoninlocalandregionalcrimedata,NationalInstituteofJustice200607,grant
number2006IJCXK006,$95,350.

CoPrincipalinvestigator,Rengert,GFandRatcliffe,JH,GeographicToolstoImproveOfficer
SafetyinCorrectionalInstitutions.NationalInstituteofJusticegrant200205,grantnumber
2002MUMU0016,$397,394.

CoPrincipalInvestigator,Weisburd,DL,Groff,ERandJones,G,"SmartPoliceDeployment:
EvaluatingtheUseofAutomatedVehicleLocatorTechnologiesinPolicing."NationalInstituteof
Justicegrant20072009,grantnumber2007IJCXK153,$235,421.

PrincipalInvestigator,Groff,ER,ModelingtheDynamicsofStreetRobberytoInformPolicyand
Prevention.NationalInstituteofJusticegrant20052008,grantnumber2005IJCX0015,
$141,163.

CoPrincipalInvestigator,Weisburd,DL,Groff,ER,"ExplainingDevelopmentalCrime
TrajectoriesatPlaces:AStudyofCrimeWavesandCrimeDropsatMicroUnitsof
Geography."NationalInstituteofJusticegrant20052008,grantnumber2005IJCX0006,
$271,882.

CoPrincipalInvestigator,McEwen,TandGroff,ER,DistancetoCrime:AnalyzingandMapping
ViolentCrime.NationalInstituteofJusticegrant20032006,grantnumber2003IJCX0150,
$100,487.

Letterofcooperation/supportfromthePhiladelphiaPoliceDepartment
Seenexttwopages

Page|38

Page|39

Page|40

CLARIFICATIONONGRADUATESTUDENTTUITION
Intheoriginalapplication,webudgetedfor$43,176ofgraduatestudenttuitiontosupportour
graduateresearchassistants.Sincethattime,TempleUniversityhasclarifiedthetuitionratesfor
theforthcomingyear.Inlightofthat,ourrevisedcalculationisasfollows:
Graduatestudenttuitionpercredithourissetat$590forinstatestudentsand$861foroutof
state(seeCollegeofLiberalArtsfiguresat
http://www.temple.edu/bursar/about/tuitionrates.htm).Webudgetedonthelowerrate.
Templegraduateclassesarethreecredithoursperclass,thereforeeachclassis3x590=1770.

Wesupportthemuptothreeclassespersemester,thereforeeachsemester3x1770=5310.

Therearetwosemestersperyear=2x5310=10,620peryearperstudent.

Therearetwostudentsallocatedtotheprojectthereforeyear1costis2x10,620=21,240.

Weareunabletopredictthelikelyincreaseintuitiongiventhecurrentfinancialclimate;howevera

conservativeestimateofa3%riseintuitioncostsforthesecondyearoftheprojectwouldincrease

theyeartwotuitionfrom21,240x1.03=21,877.

Addingyearoneandtheyeartwoprojectionresultsin21,240+21,877=43,117.

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