Part 1: Core

1. Populations in Transition
1.1 Population change
Trends in population change

Exponential growth since the mid-19th century

Up to 95% of population growth is taking place in LEDCs

Global population expected to stabilise by 2050-2080, except in the Americas

1990: average woman 3.3 children, 2010 = 2.56 children per woman (global)

AIDS lowers life expectancy to 40 years in some countries

LEDCs may experience population decline due to AIDS

Global population likely to peak at 10-12 billion people in 2070

Population of Africa will grow from 1 billion now to 1.6 billion in 2050

India will overtake China as the worlds most populous nation by 2020

Europe accounts for 13% of global population now, will fall to 7% by 2100 Currently, 10% of
the world population is over 60%. By 2100, it will rise to one third

Natural Increase

Annual Growth Rate is measured by subtracting the Crude Death Rate from the Crude Birth
Rate, expressed as a percentage.

Highest found in Africa

Lowest found in North America and Europe

Crude Birth Rate Number of births per 1,000 people in a population

Crude because it does not take into account the age structure of a population

High birth rate is caused by parents wanting

children:

For labour

To look after them in old age

To continue family name

For prestige

Compensatory births (high mortality rate

countries)

As a net contribution to family income

Low birth rate is because:

Children are costly

Government provides pensions and

health services

More women want their own career and

higher status

Widespread use of family planning

Less need for compensatory births as

mortality rates fall

Urbanisation and industrialisation are

associated with social changes and a
decline in traditional customs

Birth rates are generally higher in developing countries and usually lower in developed
countries, although not perfectly correlated

Crude Death Rate Number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population

Crude because it does not take into account the age structure of a population

High in regions of:

Poor hygiene and sanitation

Lack of clean water and nutritious food

Overcrowding

Contagious diseases and respiratory infections

Low development

Poor indicator of mortality trends as it does not refect the amount of aged people (as in
most MEDCs)

Infant Mortality Rate Total no. of deaths <1 year old/total no. of live births per year (x1000)
Child Mortality Rate Total no. of deaths 1-5 years old/total no. of children 1-5 years (x1000)
Population pyramids
Population momentum

The tendency for a population to grow despite a fall in birth rates or fertility levels

Due to a relatively high concentration of people in pre-childbearing and childbearing years.

As these people grow older, the greater number of births will exceed the number of deaths
in the older populations, causing the population to continue to grow

Causes a time-delay (lag) in the impact of decreasing birth rates/fertility levels on the size
of a population

Causes population predictions to become unreliable as the momentum of a population is

more diffcult to predict

Population projections Predictions about future population based on trends in fertility, mortality
and migration
1.2 Responses to high and low fertility
Dependency

The ratio of dependent population to working population

Population aged <15 + population aged >64 (dependents)/population 16-64 (economically

active)

Very crude due to different ages of economically active in different countries/regions/

cultures

Useful measure to compare countries or track changes

High proportion of elderly in MEDCs

High proportion of youth in LEDCs

Often displayed on a triangular graph (three-variable data)

Older dependency ratio

Number of people aged 65+ for every 100 people aged 20-64

Time-delayed impact of high fertility levels after WWII (baby boom) and recent
improvements in health bringing down death rates

Europe = greyest continent (23 of worlds 25 oldest countries)

LEDC/MEDC life expectancy gap up to 14 years

ODR acts as an indicator of the balance between the economically active and the older
population they must support

Varies widely from 6 per 100 workers in Kenya to 33 in Italy and Japan

Nearly 50% of women aged 65+ in Germany, Denmark and Slovakia are alone, with
consequent issues of loneliness and access to care

Youthful population

Advantages

Disadvantages

Advantages

Disadvantages

Stronger workforce - stimulate economy

More adults out of workforce to take care

of children

Large, cheap future workforce

Less skilled trainers to train new workers

Provides more schools, health care

centres - can improve rest of population

Usually indicates poor health/health

services

Lower death rate

Specialized infrastructure required:

schools, children's hospitals, child care
facilities, sport/ recreation

Youthful = healthy, less strain on

healthcare system

Attract new investment

Competitive future job market, diffcult to

fnd jobs

Larger market for some goods

Strain on education facilities

Greater innovation

Strain on food supplies

Tends to higher crime rate

High dependency ratio

Youthful population

Advantages

Disadvantages

Experienced workforce - can train new

skilled workers

Providing pensions = expensive for

government and taxpayers

Larger market for some goods

Health care, nursing homes

More higher educated people - improve

education for rest of population

Young workers employed to care for

elderly - not contributing to society
(depletion of labour force)

Indicates good health care system

Construction/employment market for

retirement/health care facilities

Strain on health care - inadequate

nursing facilities

Economically reliant on small workforce

- higher dependency ratio

High death rate

Industries migrate overseas

Depletion of labour force - deteriorating

economy

Trade defcit

Reduced demand for goods from

smaller working population

Falling demand for schools and

teachers

Specialised leisure facilities

Jobs created in aged care - grey

market

Case study: Japans aging population

Since 1945, Japans age structure has felt the effects of decreasing birth and death rates

Over 2.5 elderly living alone

Young people only 16% of the population (1995)

At present, <15% of population are elderly, by 2020 it will be over 25%

Case study: Niger's youthful population

2.9% growth rate. Fertility rate = 7.1/1000. Life expectancy = 44.3. Proportion of youthful
population:

Causes:

Polygamy, religion, no family planning, low status of women, little education, poverty

Pro-natalist policy

Policies aimed at increasing the size of the population

Case study: France's pro-natalist policies

Cause: High status of women, Rising childcare costs, Low IMR and CMR

Problem: Aging population, reduced labour, cost of supporting aging population a concern

Incentives: full tax benefts until 18, longer maternity leaves(doubled for a third child from
20 weeks), childcare costs provided (depending on income, 500 euro max), subsidize
childcare facilities, 30% reduction for public transport for families with 3+ kids

Effects: Birth rate of 1.9/1000. Close to replacement rate of 2.1/1000. 830900 born in 2006
~> highest since 1981. Overtook Ireland to become the most fertile nation in Europe.

Problems: favors mothers only, complex, expensive, population still aging, complicated

Anti-natalist policy

Policies aimed at reducing the size of the population

Family planning methods include contraceptives, drastic measures include forced

sterilization, abortion and infanticide

Case study: Chinas one-child policy

Imposed in 1979. Carrot: free education, priority housing. Stick: fnes, forced abortions

Birth rate immediately fell from 33 births per 1,000 (1970) to 17

Estimated to have reduced population growth in a country of 1.3 billion by as much as 300
million people over the frst 20 years

Prevented as many as 400 million births. Raised 120 million people out of poverty.

Resulted in a ratio of 118:100 male to female births, above the 103-107:100 global average

Millions of females aborted or killed as a result of neglect, abandonment or infanticide to

refect the Chinese value of males infants over females

Restricted to Han Chinese (majority) - in total, applies to about 36% of the population

In rural areas, parents may have two children if the frst is female and in some provinces a
two-child policy is imposed

Recent provisions have allowed for families composed of a couple with no siblings to have
two children. Families who lost a child in the 2008 Sichuan earthquake were allowed to
have another child

Experts calling for a more uniform two-child policy to prevent the impacts of an aging
society in which one child is left to support two parents and four grandparents. 1:2:4

Peak fertility in the 1960s was 5.8 children/woman, now is 1.8 - well below replacement
rate of 2.1

Causes social divisions as wealthy families can afford to pay the fnes and have more
children.

Riot in May 2007 sparked by the policy, thousands of villagers attacked family planning
offcials, overturned cars and set fre to government buildings. Seen as unfair that complex
exemptions, enforcement inconsistencies and fnancial penalties allow some people to
have larger families.

1.3 Movement responses - migration

The movement of people, involving a change of residence. It can be internal or external, long- or
short-distance and voluntary or forced. It is usually for an extended period (more than one year)
and does not include temporary circulations such as commuting or tourism.
Causes of Migration:
Forced
- Natural disasters

Voluntary
- Employment opportunities

- Social/political unrest

- Quality of education

- Slavery

- Quality of environment (overcrowding, air

pollution)

- Famine

- Climate

- War

- Commute distance

- State persecution/repression

- Natural hazards
- Prevalence of disease
- Quality/availability of medical facilities/care
Impacts of migration
Internal and
External
Social

Origin
Cost
- Imbalanced
population pyramid
- Culture of outmigration
- Females left behind
- Returning on
retirement a burden
on services

Environmental N/a

Beneft
- Lower BR
- Reduced
population pressure
- Remittances

- Less pressure on
resources
- Less waste
produced
Economic
- Brain drain
- Remittances
- Loss of labour
- Counter-migration
- Deterrent for
brings back skilled
investment
immigrants
- Slows growth
- Reduced
- Loss of consumers unemployment
Theories of Migration: Ravenstein

Destination
Cost
Beneft
- Social tensions due to - Multiculturalism
racism
- Cultural awareness
- Imbalanced population and acceptance
pyramids
- Ghettos, slums, shanty
towns
-Racism/discrimination
- Male dominated society
- Loss of cultural identity
- Increased pressure on
resources
- More waste produced

N/a

- Transport costs
- Adjustment costs
- Currency change loss
- Local labour displaced
by immigrant labour

- Cheaper labour
- More labour force
- More consumers
- Undesirable jobs
flled

1. Most migrants proceed over short distance due to lack of knowledge, technology and
transport
2. Migration occurs in a series of steps or stages, typically from rural to small town, to large
town, to city. Once in an urban area, become locked into urban hierarchy
3. Movement both towards and away from large cities (dispersal).
4. Long-distance migrants are more likely to go to large cities (greater knowledge about
opportunities)

5. Urban dwellers migrate less than rural dwellers (fewer opportunities)

6. Women are more migratory than men over short distances, especially for marriage and
where societal status of women is low
7. Increases with advances in technology, transport, communications and speed of
information travel

Theories of Migration: Lee

Describes migration in terms of push and pull factors (imagined or real)

1.4 Gender and change
Afghanistan

MENA Region (M. East/N. Africa)

- Subject to Talibans Islamic fundamentalist

insurgency rulings
Culture

- Improved slightly since the fall of the Taliban in

2001 under the Karzai government

- A generation ago, 75% of MENA women were

married before 20 - that has halved

- Patriarchal
- Up to the 1990s, women worked in government,
as professors, lawyers, judges, journalists and
-Delaying marriage until 30s in order to pursue
doctors.
degrees or careers
Status

- When the Taliban came to power, any semblance -Relegated to subordinate status under Islamic
of gender equality was lost.
Sharia law
- Forced to wear burqa even since Taliban
government fell, streets still patrolled by Taliban
insurgents

-Gender-based violence

-Severe restrictions; only 3% receiving

primary education

- All 18 MENA countries have reported

improved female access to education since
the 1990s, including education, literacy,
university enrollment and variety of
academic felds available to them

Education

- Since 2001, female enrollment in schools is

increasing, but females still only account for
40% of enrollments and are unlikely to be
educated past primary school

Birth ratios

- 1.05 males/female

Health

- Childbirth especially dangerous, malnutrition,

poor health, prevented from accessing
medical care

-Largely improved except in Palestine,

where restrictions and military incursions
prevent women from leaving their homes to
access schools and medical facilities

Employment

- Banned from being employed; affected

education as most teachers were female
- Most popular work is as professional tailors
from home

- More visible participation in the health,

education and business sectors

Life
expectancy

- Males: 45 years

- Up from 52 years in 1970 to more than 70

in 2004

- Females 44 years
- Traditionally, families had 10-12 children

Family size

Revolution in marriage and childbearing in

- Low income and poor health means families -recent
decades - women opting for smaller
now have 4-5 children
families
- Very high IMR 154/1000
- Maternal mortality 123 times higher than the
US

Migration

- Freedom to travel independently

- Little to no freedom of movement; must be
accompanied by a man, cannot drive cars,
public harassment and beatings for those who - Laws requiring a male guardians
permission to obtain a passport in Bahrain,
disobey
Kuwait and Qatar abolished
- Play no part in government process,
removed from public space, suffer domestic
violence but cannot prosecute

Legal rights

- Number of children borne by each Arab

woman has halved in the past 20 years

- In UAE and Bahrain, the frst female judges

were appointed in 2008 and 2006

- Prohibition of proxy marriages

- RAWA (Revolutionary Association of the
Women of Afghanistan) protest and campaign - Improvement of autonomy within family
for womens rights but are often persecuted by
Taliban
- Introduction of Family Protection Law in
Jordan, protecting womens rights (2009)
- President Karzai signed into legislation a law
condoning spousal rape, child marriage and - Penalties for perpetrators of violence
concealing of women (2009)
against women
- Delaying marriage until 30s to purchase land

Land tenure

- Not allowed for females

- Most countries allowed to purchase land
- Not allowed to vote, no representation
of women in government under Taliban

- Since 2005, a few females became

Political rights members of national assembly and
ministers
- A minister for Womens Affairs post
was created in 2006

- In 2005, women in Kuwait received equal political

rights as men (voting and representation rights)

2. Disparities in Wealth and Development

2.1 Measurements of regional and global disparities
Infant mortality

Number of deaths <1 year/1000 live births

Where IMR is high, water supply, sanitation, housing, nutrition and primary healthcare are
inadequate

Most of the causes of death in areas with high IMR are preventable (malnutrition, diarrhea,
malaria etc.)

Education: The Education Index

Based on adult literacy rate and combined enrollment in primary, secondary and tertiary
education

Varies from 0.933 in Finalnd, Australia, NZ and Cuba to 0.354 for Afghanistan and 0.282 for
Niger

Sub-Saharan African countries have a noticeably lower index

Cubas high score is interesting, proving that a country does not necessarily have to be
rich to have an effective education system

Nutrition

Overall: 815 million hungry people, up to 10 million of which will die every year from hunger
and hunger-related diseases

Daily Calorie intake:

Does not measure nutrition within calories

Diffcult to measure

Does not take into account differing calorie intake needs (e.g. those in cold climates or
those doing physical labour)

Provides a good comparison between nations

Body Mass Index (BMI)

Physical measure of body fat, calculated by dividing weight by height

More accurate than calorie intake

Overweight, healthy weight and underweight are nondescript statistics

Large scale for underweight values but does not distinguish those who are mildly
underweight from those who are at risk of starvation

Income

GDP per capita (usually adjusted to Purchasing Price Parity (PPP), an adjustment that
equalizes the power of local currencies for the same goods

Gender-related development index (GDI)

Measures achievements in the same dimensions as HDI but examines the gender disparity
between scores

Simply the HDI adjusted for gender inequality

Gender empowerment measure (GEM)

Measures whether or not women can take an active part in economic and political life

Exposes inequalities in the selected areas

Tracks percentages of women in parliament, among legislators, professional and technical

workers, and the gender disparity in earned income (refecting economic independence)

Norway is frst (0.837) and Yemen is 70th (0.127)

Human Development Index (HDI)

UN created measure of development used since 1990

More reliable and comprehensive measure than GNI

Measured from 0 to 1.0

Includes three components:

Longevity (life expectancy)

Knowledge (adult literacy and average number of years schooling)

Standard of living (purchasing power adjusted to local cost of living) PPP

2.2 Origins of disparities

Ethnicity

Residence/Living conditions

- e.g. Australian Aboriginies:

- Slums

- Life expectancy 20 years lower than general

population

- 924 million people

- IMR 4x higher than general population

- 7x more likely to catch meningitis
- 10x more likely to catch tuberculosis
- Poor housing
- 45x more likely to be affected by domestic
violence
- 40% higher rates of suicide
- Heart disease and stroke 3x more likely
- Prevalent slums and shantytowns

- High concentrations of poverty

- Broken families
- Unemployment
- Physical, economic and social exclusion
- Located near industrial effuent and noxious
waste
- Waterborne diseases - typhoid and cholera
- Insecurity of tenure
- Lack of basic services
- Inadequate and/or unsafe buildings
- High incidence of crime (some slums)

Parental education
- Raises income of teachers
- Promotes economic growth
- Raises income of those given education
- Educated tend to have fewer children

- First stopping point for immigrants

- Low-cost housing
- Fosters informal economy
Employment
- Poverty remains entrenched despite
improvements in living standards
- Less qualifed face employment
disadvantages, especially in Europe
- Informal sector workers in LEDCs have no job
security and small wages

Land ownership
- Growing populations and increasing poverty
prevents land tenure

Income
- Income is needed to break out of the poverty
cycle

- Vulnerable communities face tenure insecurity - Income can be used to afford education,
healthcare, food, etc
and forced displacement
- Major problem in shantytowns - vulnerable to
resettlement
- Wealthy communities have no trouble
acquiring land title
- With secure land tenure, people can generate
wealth and grow food
2.3 Disparities and change
Changing life expectancy

By 2025, 26 countries will have life expectancy of 80+ years

Lowest life expectancies in 2025 include Afghanistan, Sierra Leone and Swaziland (50
years)

In MEDCs, more people survive to old age and those who do can expect to live longer

The oldest old (80+) are the fastest growing segments of many populations

Progress is far from universal; between 1975 and 1995, 16 countries with a combined
population of 300 million people experienced decreasing life expectancy - largely AIDS
afficted nations

Progress in preventing child deaths: 21 million in 1955, 10 million in 1997

Changing education

Since 1999, number of children not attending school has fallen by 33 million

LEDC rates of children out of school have halved

Gender gaps in enrollment narrowing

Still 72 million children out of school

Language, ethnicity, regional variation and some societal groups face increased
marginalisation and decreased levels of education enrollment

Changing Income

Despite strong economic growth and the creation of millions of new jobs, income inequality
has grown dramatically since the 1990s and is expected to be exacerbated by the 2008GFC

While a small amount of income inequality can encourage growth, huge disparities are
counter-productive and damaging to most economies

Gap widened due to the redistribution of income away from agriculture

Two-thirds of the world experienced an increase in income inequality between 1990 and
2005

Income inequality causes higher crime rates, lower life expectancy, civil unrest, malnutrition
and fewer children being educated

Main cause of income inequality is rural/urban disparity

Agricultural growth is far slower than other sectors, thus income remains low

Shift from socialism to market economy in China & India leads to lower income

Methods of improving include policies aimed at improving rural healthcare, education,

infrastructure and social protection

Measured by Gini Coeffcient:

0 represents total equality, 1 represents total inequality

Among lowest scores are Germany and Japan, highest include Brazil and Nepal

Unreliable as some fgures based on income and some based on expenditure

Allows comparison between nations

MDGs
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education

3. Promote gender equality and empower women

4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop global partnership for development
Case study: Malaria nets in Mozambique
(goal 6)

Case Study: NERICA (goal 1)

Ineffcient processes and rapid

population growth caused rice
production in Sub- Saharan Africa to be
stripped by the population

Farmers were faced with the choice of

using African rice (well-adapted by low
yield), or Asian rice (high yield, not
adapted).

The NERICA (New Rice for Africa)

Project created a hybrid of the two rice
species to produce 18 high-yielding,
drought resistant, protein-rich species of
rice that have been successfully used
Africa-wide

Improved food security in Congo,

Guinea, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Togo and
Uganda Allowed many farmers to make
a proft on their rice for the frst time

Nets can cut malaria transmission by

60% and child deaths by 20% if used
properly (WHO)

Has allowed some farmers to diversify

their produce, requires the same inputs
for much higher yield (more intensive)

1.7 million distributed since 2000

Allowed some families to afford,

plumbing, beds, phones and electricity

Government distributes free insecticidetreated nets (ITN) to all pregnant women

and children under 5 in many provinces
in Mozambique

Malaria infects 350-500 million people

annually, killing 1 million (mostly children
in Africa

Mozambique - more children die of

malaria than any other cause

Accounts for 60% of pediatric hospital

admissions and 30% of hospital deaths

Deadly for pregnant women

Effective and cheap method of

preventing mosquito bites that transmit
the disease

2.4 Reducing disparities

Trade and market access
Expanding trade

Trading blocs

Expanding trade links between MEDCs and

LEDCs increases economic integration, which
in turn - improves average living standards
and accelerates development

An arrangement among nations to allow free

trade (free of tariffs) between member countries
but to impose tariffs on those countries wishing to
trade with them

Reduces wages of unskilled workers in LEDCs

and pushes them out of jobs

e.g. the European Union

Gives rise to further inequalities and mass

unemployment

Many established post-WWII to further economic

development and rebuild war damage

Numerous regional trading blocs

LEDCs have diversifed; no longer just

exporting primary goods. Now export massive
amounts of manufactured goods to MEDCs

Old pattern of MEDC manufactured goods

being traded for LEDC primary goods has
been replaced by new pattern: both LEDCs
and MEDCs each specialise in different types
of manufactured goods - improves LEDC living
standards

Benefcial to member countries because it gives

them free access to a much bigger market (EU =
490 million wealthy consumers)

Unfair because they deny access to nonmembers; protectionist

Prevent access to rich European markets for

LEDCs

WTO attempts to promote free trade among all

markets to reduce protectionism

One-way fow has been replaced by two-way

fow

LEDCs now substantial exporters of shipping

and tourism
Fair/ethical trade

Trade that attempts to be socially, economically and environmentally responsible. It is trade

in which companies take responsibility for the wider impact of their business. Attempts to
address the failings of the global trading system.

Cadbury chocolate in Australia went Fair Trade in 2010, with Cadbury agreeing to purchase
3,900 tonnes of Ghanian cocoa beans sanctioned by the Fairtrade Association of Australia
and NZ (FTAANZ).

Tripled FTAANZs sales; from $36 million to $100 million

Aims to work within the constraints of local trade to secure better prices, decent working
conditions, local sustainability and fair terms for farmers in LEDCs

To qualify for fair labour prices, farmers must sign a project and undergo inspections that
involve the banning of child labour and the introduction of effcient farming and recycling
practices

Cadbury purchases the fair trade cocoa at a premium and an additional licensing fee to use
the fair trade logo on their products

Fair trade aims to: abolish child labour, reduce use of pesticides, improve farming practices,
increase sustainability and recycling, decrease waste, improving working and living
conditions for farmers and their families, use biodegradable products where possible and to
protect water supplies

EPZs and FTZs

Export-processing zones (EPZs) and free trade zones (FTZs) represent easy oaths to
industrialisation

By the end of the 20th century, over 90 countries had established EPZs as part of their
economic strategies

Links the economies of LEDCs with the rest of the world in order to improve their
indebtedness, to spread new liberal ideas, encourage open economies and non- traditional
exports, and to allow TNCs to search for cost-staving labour and production locations.

E.g.: Incheon Free Economic Zone (IFEZ), South Korea created in 2002 in order to attract
foreign investment.

Minimises regulations and maximises business incentives

Total cost over $21 billion

IFEZ covers over 200 square km comprising of three districts and an international airport

Expected to be populated by over 510,000 people

West of Seoul, partly built on land reclaimed from the sea

Goal to create the most desirable conditions for both living and business

Strengths/opportunities: internationally competitive seaport and airport, located in centre of

the fastest-growing economic bloc in the world (northeast Asia), 2 billion people live within
3.5 hours fying time, 69 airlines service the area and Incheon is adjacent to Seoul,
guaranteeing a skilled workforce

Weaknesses/threats: expensive foreign schools, widening rich-poor gap, threat of a Korean

war deters investment, North Korean nuclear testing deters foreign involvement

Debt Relief

Concessional Lending Arm provides a series of different loans and credits with low interest
rates, payment grace periods, interest free loans and loans with 35-40 year repayment
periods (far longer than commercial banks)

International Development Agency - the World Banks fund for the poorest, interest free
credits and grants for development projects. Focuses on reducing inequalities, improving
living conditions and boosting economic growth. Loans since inception have totaled $238
billion, 50% to African nations

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Soft loan facility loans of below-market rates of interest

Often provided in exchange for concessions for the lenders (eg. Chinas lending to Angola
and receiving stakes in oil exploration)

$700m to Bangladesh (2009) to stabilise economy and allow the creation of new markets
and the building of gas and power projects

Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs)

Designed to cut government expenditure, reduce the amount of state intervention in the
economy and promote liberalisation and international trade.

Consist of four elements: greater use of domestic resources, policy reforms to increase
economic effciency, generation of foreign income through diversifcation of the economy
and increased trade; and reducing the active role of the state

Divided into two main groups: stabilisation measures (wage freeze, reduced subsidies on
food, health & education) and adjustment measures (tax reductions, export promotion,
downsizing of civil service, privatisation and economic liberalisation)

Heavily-Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative

Launched in 1996 by the IMF and the World Bank

Relieves low-income donors of their unsustainable debts to donors

Promotes reform and sound policies for growth, human development and poverty reduction

Must adhere to IMF programme and display progress in developing a national poverty
strategy

Entitled countries can receive up to 90% debt relief

Recipient countries must pay debt service over a given period and the principal on the
debt (like mortgage payments)

Stock relief cancels specifc debts and achieves a reduction in the payments the country
must make over the life of the loan

42 countries are HIPC, 34 in Sub-Saharan Africa. None had PPP above $1,500 per capita
(2001)

8 HIPCs have reached the completion point (fnal HIPC payment)

Aid
Advantages
Provides immediate humanitarian relief
Provides external resources for investment and
fnances projects that could not be undertaken with
commercial capital

Disadvantages
Allows countries to postpone improvement of economic
management and mobilisation of domestic resources
Replaces domestic saving, foreign investment and
commercial capital as the main sources of investment
and technology development

Project assistance helps expand much-needed

infrastructure

Dependence on aid

Contributes to personnel training and builds technical

expertise

Harms local markets

Increases future risk of famine

Can support better economic and social policies

Aid is done for political reasons so unreliable
Provision of aid does not solve long-term economic
problems
Too much aid is tied to the purchase of goods and
services from the donor country
Aid doesn't reach intended target
Does not provide employment to locals

Remittances
- The transfer of money and/or goods by foreign workers to their home country
- Three countries that receive most: India, China and Mexico
- Migrants from LEDCs sent $316 billion home in 2009
- World Bank forecasts 6.2% increase in remittances
- Remittances make up 50% of Tajikistans GDP (2008)

Deprivation and Poverty in London

Patterns in London
Despair
The most deprived are concentrated in the NE of
Slums
the CBD, the inner-city areas and East End
Poverty
The least deprived are dispersed on the edges.
Crime
May pockets of deprivation exist throughout
Vandalism
London
Abandonment
Within each borough there is a range of deprivation
Population loss
(Eg: Croyden)
Pollution
Unemployment/Under-employment
Measurement of deprivation

Physical
quality of housing
Level of pollution
crime, vandalism and grafitti
Economic
jobs
unemployment/under-employment
level of income
Social
crime
healthcare
education
% of pop'n in welfare
# of single parent families
Political
opportunities to vote
opportunities to take part in community
organization

Causes of Deprivation
Lack of capital investment
Poor infrastructure
Lack of skills
Housing stress
Lack of investment
Declining industries
Ageing population
Social unrest
Marginalization
Deprivation
Poor government provided housing
Poor schooling
Inadequate public services
Dereliction
Low social class
Poverty
Slum
Brownfield sites

Characteristics of deprived areas

Physical
Inadequate sanitation, insulation, heating
No baths or toilets in some houses
Over 30,000 squatters
Social
Crime, Vandalism and Violence
Education system widens gap between rich and
poor
20% of workforce has University degrees but 50%
don't have any sort of qualifications
Drug selling
Hostility and racism towards immigrants.
Low life expectancy
Economic
No regular income for many families
Unemployment severe in inner areas, not so
severe around the edges
Many people relocate to the fringes of the city and
commute to the CBD to work
Boarded up shops
10% of people have 40% of all the income in
London.
50% account for none
Pattern
Poorest/most unemployed/etc near the center
Less of everything near the edges
Poorest boroughs
Newham
Barking & Dagenham
Richest boroughs
Bromley
Richmond
Wandsworth
Kensington & Chelsea

Mauritania

Overview

population 2.365 million

GDP per capita PPP US$2000

HDI ranking 137/177

12.6~15% malnutrition rate

138k severely food insecure. 246K

moderately food insecure

Urban population increased from 5% to

60% since 1960.

Exports

Iron ore 50% of total export

revenue

Fish

Nouadhibou main port in Mauritania.

But no road linking capital city
Nouakchott and Nouadhibou.

Oil discovered in mid 2001. Import

substitution has been a failure though.

Poverty reduction schemes:

Senegal River Valley

Irrigation hoped to improve farming

Objectives

Higher agriculture output

Wider crop diversity

Reduced rural poverty

Improved food security

Oasis development project

Objective improve living standards of
people living in oasis zones
Main policy giving microcredit loans to
increase business confdence
Can borrow money for up to 10 years
interest free
Started mid 1980s. Ended in 2002.

Nouakchott
10 year development program funded by
World Bank is trying to reduce poverty in
Need to import food regularly because of
the capital city
the high demand for food, reduced self Main objectives
suffciency and unpredictable weather.
Improve water and electricity supply
Frequent droughts
Upgrade educational facilities
High rural-urban migration
Microcredit
Tourism
France is Mauritania's main trading
Until 1990, tourism was not a priority for
partner.
fear that it may damage the country's
heritage and culture and that it would be
60% of trade done with EU
too expensive to set up tourist
infrastructure
Migrant workers from Mauritania
send remittance back from France
But tourism is becoming more looked
upon now to generate income and to
Part of Cotonou agreement trade
preserve ecological and cultural aspects
agreement linking over 70 Africa,
of country.
Caribbean and Pacifc countries to EU
Impacts
Japan and China are also major
Little impact
contributors to aid.
Country still in poverty
gg

3. Patterns in Environmental Quality and Sustainability

3.1 Atmosphere and change
Atmospheric system

About 46% of the suns shortwave insolation (incoming solar

radiation) gets to the earths
surface. About 35% of insolation
is refected back to space in longwave radiation and a further 19%
is absorbed by atmospheric
gases, especially oxygen and
ozone at high altitudes. Scattering
accounts for a net loss of 6% and
clouds and water droplets refect
23%. Clouds can refect up to
80% of total incoming insolation.
Refection from the earths
surface (planetary albedo) is
generally about 7%.

CO2 from humans, animals = CO2

taken by trees

O2 given out by trees = O2 used by humans and animals

Changes in solar radiation

11-year solar cycle which changes the energy output of the sun

Slow variations in the earths orbit affect seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar
radiation, responsible for initiating ice ages

Changes in albedo

eg. ice melts, is replaced by darker-coloured vegetation, insolation absorption increases,

temperature rises

Changes in long-wave radiation

19% of insolation is absorbed by greenhouse gases, changes to absorption levels due to

destruction of the ozone layer causes the anthropogenic (enhanced) greenhouse effect

Causes of climate change

Water vapour accounts for 95% of GHGs

CO2 levels have risen from 315ppm in 1950 to 355ppm today due to human activities:
burning fossil fuels and deforestation (especially of tropical rainforests)

Methane is the second-largest contributor to global warming and is increasing at a rate of

1% per annum. Cattle emit over 100 million tonnes of methane into the atmosphere each
year. Natural wetland and paddy felds are also methane-rich, emitting between 20-100
million tonnes annually. As global warming increases, peat bogs trapped in permafrost will
melt and release vast quantities of methane

CFCs are ozone-destroying synthetic chemicals that also absorb long-wave radiation. They
are 10,000 times more effective at trapping heat than CO2 and are increasing at a rate of
6% per annum

Consequences of climate change

Rising sea levels: low-lying areas such as the Netherlands, Egypt and Bangladesh will
experience fooding; up to 200 million people could be displaced

Storm activity will increase due to increased atmospheric energy

Agricultural patterns will change: USAs grain belt will decline but Canadas growing season
will be extended

Less rainfall over the USA, southern Europe and the CIS

Atmospheric system
A layer of gases surrounding the earth which protects life on earth by absorbing
harmful UV radiation, warming the surface through the Greenhouse effect and
reducing temperature extremes between day and night.

Energy balance
The difference between the total influx of solar radiation to the earth's surface
and the loss of this energy via terrestrial radiation, evaporation, and the
dissipation of sensible heat into the ground.

Solar radiation
The electromagnetic waves emitted by the sun, varying in wavelength from longwave radio waves, through infrared waves and visible light, to ultraviolet waves,
X-rays, and gamma radiation. Earth gets only 0.0005% of the sun's radiation.
Most solar radiation passes straight through the atmosphere without warming it,
but it is received and absorbed by the earth.

Longwave radiation
Long wave radiation comes from the Earth. The Earth actually gives off radiation
like the Sun. The wavelength of the Earth's energy is much longer. The amount
of energy given off by the Earth is equal to the amount it receives from the Sun.

Albedo
The proportion of radiation reflected from a surface, especially from the surface
of the earth or a covering of the surface, such as snow. Higher the albedo, the
more the reflection. Lower the albedo, the less the reflection.

Insolation
Insolation (short for incident or incoming solar radiation) is a measure of solar
radiation energy received on a given surface area and recorded during a given
time.

Greenhouse
The phenomenon whereby the earth's atmosphere traps solar radiation, caused
by the presence in the atmosphere of gases such as carbon dioxide, water
vapor, and methane that allow incoming sunlight to pass through but absorb
heat radiated back from the earth's surface.

Planetary albedo
The fraction of incident solar radiation that is reflected by the Earth atmosphere
system and returned to space, mostly by backscatter from clouds in the
atmosphere.

External forcing
There are eleven external forces in geography. They include weathering,
sediment, erosion, delta, glacier among other. Internal and external forces are
when friction forces are divided into two.

Internal forcing
internal forces in geography includes : 1. Plate Tetctonics, 2. Volcanic 3.
Earthquakes

Milantovitch Cycles
Periodic variations in the earth's position relative to the sun as the earth orbits,
affecting the distribution of the solar radiation reaching the earth and causing
climatic changes that have profound impacts on the abundance and distribution
of organisms, best seen in the fossil record of the Quaternary Period (the last
1.6 million years).

Global warming
The increase in temperatures around the world that has been noticed over the
past 50 years or so, and in particular since the 1980s The greenhouse effect
The process by which certain gases(H2O, CO2, CH4 and CFC) allow shortwave
radiation from the sun to pass through the atmosphere and heat up the earth,
but trap an increasing proportion of long wave radiation from the earth. This
radiation leads to a warming of the atmosphere.

Enhanced greenhouse effect

The increasing amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as a result of
human activities, and their impact on atmospheric systems, including global
warming

3.2 Soil and change

Causes of soil degradation

Soil degradation reduction in quantity and quality of soil

Erosion by wind and water - accounts for 80% of the 20 million km2 of degraded soil
worldwide

Biological degradation (loss of humus and plant/animal life)

Physical degradation (loss of structure, changes in permeability)

Chemical degradation (acidifcation, declining fertility, changes in pH, salinisation and

chemical toxicity) - can trigger the circulation of toxic metals. Often found in coastal
locations and hot, arid areas. Major problem in Australia after the removal of vegetation

Factor

Description

Erosivity of Soil
(R)

Rainfall totals, intensity and seasonal distribution. Maximum erosivity occurs

when the rainfall occurs in high-intensity storms, when land has just been
ploughed or when crop cover is not fully established. Minimum erosion occurs
when rains are gentle and fall on frozen land, vegetation or full crop cover.

Erodibility (K)

Susceptibility of soil to erosion. Depends on infltration capacity and structural

stability of soil. High infltration capacity and high stability = resistance to rain
splash and erodability values

Length-Slope
Factor (LS)

Slope length and steepness infuence the movement and speed of water down
a slope. Greater slope = greater erosivity, longer slope = more water received

Types of crop and cultivation practices. Established grass/ vegetation provide

Crop
the best protection against erosion of agricultural crops, those with the greatest
Management (C) foliage and thus greatest ground cover are optimal. Fallow land/crops that
expose the soil for long periods offer little protection.
Soil Conservation Contour ploughing, bunding and use of terraces can reduce erosion and slow
(P)
runoff water

Environmental consequences
- Increased surface runoff

- Rural unemployment

- Increased stream discharge

- Migration

- Reduction of water infltration and groundwater - Silting of dams/reservoirs

recharge
- Hunger
- Development of erosional gullies and sand
- Malnutrition
dunes
- Civil/social unrest
- Change in the surface microclimate that
enhances aridity
- Drying up of wells and springs
- Reduction of seed germination of native plants
- Socio-economic consequences
- Lack of farm productivity

Management strategies
Case study Soil Degradation in Tibet
Background
- Mountainous terrain

- 16% is arable

- Low land jungle

- GDP per capita = US$1200

- Landlocked

- 90% of agriculture is subsistence

- Steep slopes

- 84% of population live in rural areas

- Geologically unstable

- High population growth

- Cold

- Population tripled since 1962

- Lots of water

- Birth rate 23/1000. Death rate 7/1000

- Poor. 50% of population living under US$1.25

- 80% of country in mountain
Problem

Environmental collapse due to wide spread large scale soil degradation

Causes

Effects

- Deforestation for subsistence agriculture and

tourism

- High rainfall and runoff and heavy erosion

- Illegal logging

- River beds rise (6~8cm per year) and banks

widen (18~45cm per year)

- Clearing/cultivation of steeps slopes without

proper terracing

- Flooding ~> Silting. Washes crops away.

- Overgrazing in the middle of the mountains

Yaks
- Construction of housing and roads in fragile
environments
- Subsistence farming

- Rivers carry 336 million tons of topsoil away to

India
- Reduction in soil quality ~> loss of agricultural
production. 400 kHa lost
- More pollution of rivers
- Loss of habitats

- Deforestation. 1.6% per year

- Rain removes nutrients
- Compacted soil removes air
- Corn and potato require loose soil makes
soil erosion more easier
Solutions
- Afforestation. Planting trees on land that wasnt a forest before.
- Reforestation. Planting trees on cleared forests.
- Terrace farming and other more soil sustainable agricultural techniques
- Organic fertilizers
- Veltiver grass
- Very deep roots
- Holds soil together very effciently
- Windbreak
- Micro hydropower
- Reduce use of fuelwood
- More cleaner source of energy

European Union Soil Charter

1990 meeting of European ministers to discuss soil problems

30% of European soils moderately to severely damaged

Drew up the EU Soil charter aiming to:

Increase methods of preserving soil quality in farms

Protecting soil from erosion and pollution

Reducing the impact of urban development on soil

Managing soil sustainably

Mechanical (physical) methods

Embankments

Windbreaks

Vegetation cover

Increased infltration

Terracing - usually of steep slopes in areas of high rainfall, allows areas to be cultivated that
wouldnt without terracing

Shelterbelts (trees, hedges) in areas of high wind, reduces wind speed and ability of wind to
damage topsoil

Crop techniques

Maintaining crop cover for as long as possible

Keeping in place the stubble and root structure of crops after harvesting

Planting a grass crop - grass roots bind soil, minimise the actions of wind and rain and
allow increased organic content

3.3 Water and change

Utilization at the regional scale

Less than 1% of all water is available for people to use - mostly stored as ice sheets and
glaciers

Three quarters of annual rainfall occurs in areas containing less that a third of the worlds
population

Two thirds of the worlds population live in the areas receiving a quarter of the worlds
annual rainfall

Case Study: Mali water shortage

Water sources

Niger River(south of Mali)

Senegal River(south of Mali)

Rainfall(very scarce)

Drought is prevalent

Groundwater

Availability

Very low. South economic scarcity,

North physical and economic scarcity

North No river. Close to Sahara

South Has 2 rivers. No

infrastructure.

5.6 million people(over 1/3 of pop'n)

have no access to water

12 million (nearly 4/5 of pop'n) have no

sanitation

15k+ children die from water borne

diseases

High dependence on fuelwood.

Decreases water availability because
less trees lead to more water runoff

Solutions
Dams
Irrigation
Groundwater use
More infrastructure
Privatization
Decentralization of services
Different agricultural methods
Store agricultural goods properly
If spoilt, more needs to be produced
~> more water use
Use pesticides and herbicides
Higher crop survival rate ~> less
water use
Use Zai holes
Crescent shaped holes flled with
manure and plants
Rainwater fows into these holes
Plants and manure decompose and
make land more fertile

Foreign agri-businesses Mali Case Study cont'd

Agri-businesses are trying to drain the wetlands of Mali(the Niger River Delta) by diverting
fow of the river
600km2 of the delta is not fooded any more
Reduced the fshing business operating in the delta
Diverting the water in the river changes from season to season
8% in non-dry seasons
70% in dry seasons
Plans to increase river diversion by 10 times
Plans to make hydroelectric dam up river
Will make Niger River Delta dry up even more often
Will harm the environment and reduce biodiversity
Afraid the Niger River Delta will become the next Aral sea
Environmental factors affecting water scarcity

Physical water scarcity is the lack of available water where resource development is
approaching or has exceeded unsustainable levels; it relates availability to demand and
implies that arid areas are not necessarily water scarce.

Economic water scarcity is the lack of water where water is available locally, but not
accessible for human, institutional or fnancial capital reasons.

Salinisation of water sources

Exhaustion of water sources

Drought/lack of adequate rainfall

Excessive evaporation

Use of water by plants

River and groundwater fows

Human factors affecting water scarcity

Water stress - where demand outstrips supply of water

Uses include: agricultural use, domestic use, use of power, industrial use

Agriculture consumes almost two-thirds of all water drawn from lakes, rivers and
groundwater

Population growth, urbanisation and industrialisation increase water in all sectors

World population and industrial output continues to increase, so does water use

Requirement of storage and transport facilities for water increases economic scarcity

Unsustainable use: in many LEDCs, farmers use twice as much water per hectare as in
industrialised countries, yet yield up to three times lower (extensive rather than intensive
farming)

Factors affecting access to safe drinking water

Water-related diseases such as cholera, hepatitis and malaria kill around 4 million people
every year

Affected by sewage

Damaged by fertilizers and pesticides from farming

Polluted by heavy metals and acids from industrial processes and transport

Number of people without adequate sanitation rose from 2.6 to 3.3 billion between 1990
and 2000. Least access to sanitation occurs in Asia (48%), especially in rural areas
In Latin America, only 2% of sewage is treated

Over 600 million people in Africa, Asia and Latin America live in squatter settlements
without sanitation

Water availability

Water infrastructure

Many piped water systems do not meet water quality criteria, leading more people to
rely on bottled water for personal use

Cost of water

In some cases, the poor pay more for their water than the rich. e.g. in Port-au- Prince,
Haiti, houses connected to the water system pay $1 per cubic meter, but poor families
forced to purchase water from mobil vendors pay between $5.50 and $16.50 per cubic
meter.

Location of users: eg. urban areas are better served than rural, countries in Asia, Latin
America and the Caribbean are better off than African countries

3.4 Biodiversity and change

Importance of biodiversity in tropical rainforests

Richest area of biodiversity: 50% of the worlds species in 7% of the worlds land

Account for 80% of the worlds insects and 90% of primates

Impact biodiversity, climate buffering, rainfall generation, soil stabilisation

Health impacts, industrial and recreational benefts

Tourist attraction

Vast stores of water which are released into the atmosphere, acting as environmental airconditioners

The Amazon releases 20 billion tonnes of water daily - during the drought in Brazil in 2005,
sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean rose by 3 degrees, helping in the formation of
Hurricane Katrina

Contain natural vitamins, minerals that can be chemically fabricated to create

pharmaceuticals

Why rainforests are destroyed

Cattle Ranching

Increasing population requires more

meat. Pastures are needed.

Subsistence Farming

Many people still live in the rainforest

HEP

Many countries still depend on

Many rivers flow in the rainforest

Rainforests are rich in minerals and

metals. Demand for them is rising
every year.

primary resources for their economy.

Primary resources are plentiful in
the rainforest

Roads need to connect countries.

Timber

Road building

Higher population requires more land

and resources

Plantations

Mining

When cities grow, more land is

needed. Rainforest cover land so
they are cut down

Population growth

so the rainforest is cut down for

farming

Urban growth

High and rising demand for timber,

mahogany and teak

Hunting

2 forms

Bushmeat to feed families

Sale of animals either alive or

dead

Consequences of Deforestation

Global warming

Silting of seas and oceans

Removes carbon sink and increases

quantity of CO2, a greenhouse gas,
in the atmosphere

Flooding

Less interception, less root uptake

and less transpiration of water
increases chances of flooding.

Water reaches the ground more

quickly and saturates it. Causes
surface water runoff and flooding.

Makes soil less stable because less

plant roots holding the soil together.
Soil becomes more loose and more
susceptable to landslides

Biodiversity loss

Breaking of nutrient cycles

The topsoil of the rainforests

receives the majority of the nutrients
from the decomposing flora and
fauna.

When the rainforest is removed,

there is no more flora and fauna
dying and decomposing so no more
nutrients go into the soil.

There is no more nutrients in the soil

any more as a result.

Any remaining nutrients containing

soil is washed away due to lack of
plant cover.

Landslides

Clearing rainforests reduces the area

of habitats for tropical animals. The
lack of habitats kills of many flora
and fauna leading to reduced
biodiversity.

Reduced photosynthesis

Sandification/Desertification

Soil loses all fertility and so no plants

grow on it

This leads to more soil erosion and

thus leads to sandification and
desertification

Less plants lead to less

photosynthesis. More CO2 released
as a result.

Loss of indigenous homes

Silting of rivers
Increased flooding and more surface
run off more soil and silt is washed
into rivers. Wrecks local ecosystem.

Rivers lead to oceans and seas.

More silt and dirt in the rivers lead to
more silt and dirt in the seas and
oceans.

By clearing rainforest you are

obviously destroying the homes of
indigenous groups. But also moving
close to indigenous groups can
spread disease and alter local
culture and traditions.

Reduced rainfall

Deforestation can lead to reduction

in local rainfall because less water is
intercepted and transpired from
vegetation into the atmosphere
reducing the formation of clouds and
rainfall.

Causes of reduced biodiversity: Deforestation in southeast Asia

Forests in southeast Asia cover 136 million hectares

By 2050, it is predicted that all forest will be converted into agricultural land, forest
plantation and other non-forested uses

Rates of annual forest loss in southeast Asia range from 0.5% in Papua New Guinea to 2%
for Indonesia

Caused Indonesia to be reclassifed as the third largest contributor to GHG emissions

Industrial logging is very lucrative; worth about US $10.4 billion p.a.

Illegal logging leads to an estimated $4 billion in lost government revenue per annum

Agriculture - predominantly palm oil and rubber - worth about US $17.8 billion p.a. and uses
some 7.6 million ha of land

Burning and draining of carbon-rich forested peatlands, particularly in Malaysia and

Indonesia

Mining and petroleum contributes 25% of GDP annually to PNG

Major impact on rainfall generation (less rainforest - less rain)

Stored carbon (at least 42 billion tonnes) stored in the soil and peatlands of the tropical
rainforest

Home to four of the worlds 25 biodiversity hotspots

Indonesian and Malaysian plants and reptiles are 60% endemic to the region; amphibians
are 80% endemic

Papua New Guinea reaches 80% rate of endemism

3.5 Sustainability and the environment

Environmental sustainability

The Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) uses 21 indicators and 76 measurements

to determine the sustainability score for each country (high score = high sustainability)
- focuses on reducing environmental stress to human health and promoting ecosystem
vitality resource management

10 most sustainable countries are wealthy, sparsely populated nations with an

abundance of natural resources - Switzerland, Norway, Sweden Finland all in top 5. The
only developing nations in the top 10 are Costa Rica and Colombia, countries of low
population density and abundant natural resources

Evaluation of a management strategy (local or national scale)

Korup National Park, Cameroon

Established by the government of Cameroon in 1986, with the support of the WWF

Contains 400 species of trees, 425 species of birds, 120 species of fsh and 100
mammal species

Over 60 species are endemic to Korup and 170 species are endangered or
vulnerable

Under law, human activity in the park is limited to tourism, research and recreation

Aims to protect and manage the National Park and integrate it into the local
economy and regional development plans

Community forests project: villagers obtain and manage large areas of forest for a
long period, with regular reviews by the government and the WWF to ensure
sustainability

Other projects include over 30 for natural resources, over 40 developing village
infrastructure and those improving income, credit and sustainable agroforestry (over
70).

4. Patterns in Resource Consumption

4.1 Patterns of resource consumption
Ecological footprint

A hypothetical measure of the amount of resources and land required to sustain a

population and nullify its wastes, measured in ha or acres.

Takes into account arable land, pasture land, forest, oceans, infrastructure needs and
energy costs.

Does not take into account species extinction and toxic pollution (of land, air and water)

Planets biocapacity is estimated to be 1.9 hectares per person; currently we are using 2.2
hectares per person

Individual footprint ranges from over 8 ha p.p. in the US, Kuwait and Denmark, to half a
hectare in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Malawi.
USA has the largest per capita footprint - 9.57 hectares p.p.

Neo-Malthusian views

Established 1798 by Thomas Malthus, believed that there is a fnite optimum population
size in relation to food supply, and any increase in population beyond this point would lead
to a decline in the standard of living and to war, famine and disease.

Based on the facts that population growth is exponential (1, 2, 4, 8, 16...) and food supply is
arithmetic (1, 2, 3, 4, 5...)

Uses potential and not actual growth fgures for population and food production

Malthus suggested preventive and positive checks would limit population growth,
preventive includes abstinence or a delay in the time of marriage; positive includes lack of
food, disease and war

Malthuss population checks do not realistically affect population growth, although the
introduction of contraception should be considered a factor

During the industrial revolution, agricultural production grew at a faster than arithmetic rate,
exceeding the rate of population growth

Neo-Malthusians do not take into account technological developments in food production:

intensifcation, cross-breeding of cattle, extensifcation, HYVs, reclaiming land from sea,
draining marshland, terracing, growing in greenhouses, irrigation techniques, hydroponics,
artifcial fertilisers, native crop/animal farming and fsh farming.

Anti-Malthusian views

Boserups theory is that people have the resources to increase food production;

e.g.: in preindustrial society, an increase in population stimulated a change in agricultural

techniques - population growth has thus enabled agricultural development

Examines various land-use systems and technological developments

Suggests the close connection between agricultural techniques and land-use system

Considers that agricultural intensifcation and increased productivity is unlikely unless

population increases, thus population growth leads to agricultural development and growth
of food supply

Necessity is the mother of invention

Other notable anti-Malthusians: Emile Durkheim, French sociologist, increases in

population density lead to greater divisions of labour and greater productivity

4.2 Changing patterns of energy consumption

Trends in oil production

In 2009, global demand for oil = 84 million barrels per day

Eight producers account for 50% of global production: USA, Russia, Iran, China, Saudi
Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico and Norway.

Marginal to non-existent production in Western Europe and Africa

Production expected to reach 105 million barrels per day by 2030

Peak oil the year in which the world or an individual oil-producing country reaches its
highest level of production, with production declining thereafter

Trends in oil consumption

In 2010, global demand for oil = 86 million barrels per day

7 countries account for over 50% of oil demand: USA, Japan, China, Germany, Russia,
Italy and France

Oil demand is (roughly) a function of population and level of development, as well as the
state of the global economy

80% of refning takes place in Europe, North America and Japan

At present rates of production and consumption, oil is expected to last 40 years

Two-thirds of global reserves are in the Middle East, followed by Latin America (12.5%)

Increasing demand, especially from NICs

Decreased reserves as supplies are used up = higher prices

Geopolitical impacts

Due to the critical importance of the Middle East as a supplier of oil, foreign interest in the
region and its political and civil conficts is paramount

The US/UK invasion in the 1991 Gulf War was supposed to be ensuring freedom and
democracy, but is touted by a signifcant minority to be an invasion to secure reliable oil
sources

Threat of terrorist activity, such as in Nigeria and Iraq

Countries such as Venezuela, Iran and Russia fexing economic muscles in response to
their oil resources and the decreasing resources in the Middle East and North Sea

OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) infuences the price of crude oil,
which increases its political and economic power

Increased dependency of all other regions on the Middle East. The dependent countries
aim to:

Ensure political stability in the Middle East

Maintain good political links with the Middle East

Involve the Middle East in economic cooperation

Oils environmental impact

Oil slicks

Oil tanker crash/explosion

Oil rig explosion

Damage to coastlines, fish stocks and coastal communities

Water pollution by illegally washing oil tankers

Disposal of retired oil rigs/platforms

Case study:
Exxon Valdez disaster

March 1989. Prince William Sound Alaska.

Tanker carried 1.2 million barrels of crude oil. 250,000 barrels spilt over 10 days.

1300 miles of coastline ruined

25,000 km2 covered.

Oil still leftover 24 years later.

21,000+ gallons of oil left. Oil breaks down 4% annually.

Cost of cleanup ~> US$2 billion

Original compensation ~> US$5 Billion. After appeal by EV ~> US$507 million. Not enough.

Herring disappeared.

Fishing industry ruined. 34,000 fishermen affected.

Deepwater Horizon

April 2010. Biggest oil spill since Exxon Valdez.

On the Gulf of Mexico, 80km off the Louisiana Coast.

62,000 barrels of oil poured out the day for 2 ~ 3 months.

4.9 million barrels of crude oil released in total

160 km + of coastline affected

$20 billion in cost for BP to clean up.

Importance of alternate energy

Solar

Clean, renewable and so abundant that the amount of energy received by the earth in 30
minutes is the equivalent to all the power used by humans in one yea

High costs to set u

Each unit of energy costs 4-10 times more than fossil fuel energy

Does not make a signifcant contribution to global energy currently

Increasing 15-20% per year

Currently, the annual production of photovoltaic cells is only enough to power one small city

Affected by cloud cover, seasons, night time

Not always possible when demand arises

No atmospheric pollution

No fnite resources involved - less environmental damage

Suitable for small-scale production

Wind

Suitable for small-scale production

No pollution of ground, water or air

Reduces environmental damage elsewhere

Can be located offshore

Requires strong, reliable winds

Impacts on wildlife, e.g. migratory birds

Noisy and visually obtrusive

Suitable locations for wind farms are usually very distant from centers of demand

Tidal

Renewable, non-polluting

No fnite resources involved

Requires funnel-shaped estuary, free of other developments High cost of development

Limited number of suitable sites

Environmental damage to estuarine sites

Long period of development

Possible effects on ports and industries upstream

Nuclear Power

Not renewable, but requires only very small amounts of non-renewable plutonium Cheap,
reliable, abundant

Production and running costs are cheap

Costs of construction, decommission, long-term waste disposal and accidents are

expensive

Uranium fuel available in USA, Canada, South Africa, France and Australia - no need to rely
on unstable Middle East for resources

EU is in favour of nuclear power, estimating that it will ned to provide 40% of EU energy
(15% of total energy)

Fears about damage to human and environmental health after accidents such as Three
Mile Island, USA (1979), Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011)

Geothermal

Emission free(GHG free) and Limitless

Scrubs sulfur that might otherwise be released

Not subject to weather fuctuations like solar or wind

Very location specifc and expensive to set up

Diffcult to set up

Sulfur and silica emissions

High water usage

Hydroelectric Power (HEP)

Renewable for of energy that harness fast-fowing water with a signifcant head (drop in
height)

Main advantage is their ability to generate power close to centres of demand, minimising
losses during transmission

Very costly to build

Few places have a signifcant head of water

Maker is critical because the plant needs to run at full capacity to be economic. In some
cases

HEP water and power supply creates a market - e.g. jobs created and towns established
near HEP plants

4.3 Conservation strategies

Waste reduction

using less energy

Recycling

the processing of industrial and household waste (eg paper, glass, some metals) so
that materials can be reused

Saves raw materials and helps reduce pollution

The UK lags behind the rest of the EU in recycling because it has an abundance of
cheap landfll sites available for use - it has a 15% recycling target by 2015

Reuse

the multiple use of a product by returning it to the manufacturer or processor each time.

Usually more energy- and resource-effcient than recycling

Substitution

refers to using one resource rather than another

The use of renewable resources rather than non-renewables would be of major

environmental beneft

Case study and evaluation: Chinas Waste Imports

World's biggest waste recycling industry

Family based, labour intensive, low tech methods

Health problem for workers

If waste isn't recycled ~> Put into landflls

The production of one PC requires at least 10 times its weight in fossil fuels and chemicals
- as high as 240kg of fossil fuels, 22kg of chemicals and 1500kg of clean water

Old PCs are often shipped to LEDCs for recycling of copper, silver and gold

PCs placed in acid baths to strip metals from circuit boards, a process highly damaging to
the environment and to the workers who carry it out

China imports >3 million tonnes of waste plastic and 15 million tonnes of paper and
cardboard each year

Containers arrive in the UK and other countries with goods exported from China, and load
up with waste products

A third of the UKs waste plastic and paper (over 700,000 tonnes altogether) is exported to
China each year

China is aware that it does not constitute responsible recycling, and is beginning to impose
stricter laws on what types of wastes can be imported.

Case study Vaxjo

Reasons for reducing dependence on fossil
fuel.

Already had good experience with

biofuel

Take responsibility for the environment

Show that a small city can make a

contribution

Impacts

Strategies for reducing oil use.

Monitored in terms of heating electricity

and transport

Rigorous planning

Individuals

People have access to domestic

heating systems that are
independent from public utilities
making them more stable and less
vulnerable.

Setup pedestrian only zones and

cycling routes

Society

Energy metering systems in student

homes

Got national and international

recognition for their efforts on
environmental sustainability.

Partnership with local firms, industries

and transport companies

Created jobs through biofuel

industry

Attracted tourists.

Use of biomass woodchips from

forestry industry

Solar energy(very little)

Improve electricity efficiency

Implement energy use restrictions

Investing in passive houses

Economy

Subsidies offered for homes

converting to biofuel heating
systems.

Subsidies also offered for solar

panel installation

Creation of jobs relating to biomass

usage.

Brings in tourism.

Acheivments

51% of energy comes from renewable

non - polluting sources: biomass,
hydropower, geothermal and solar.
CO2 emissions reduced by 24% per
person to 3.5 tons of CO2 annually. Well
below the European average of 8 tons
and the world average of 4.

Innovations

60% of Vaxjos geographical area is a

forest

23 of citys heating comes from wood

chips

Complete cooperation. All political

parties, industries and the like
cooperated to reduce fossil fuel
emissions

Environment

Cut down on CO2 emissions

dramatically.

Reduction by 20~24%