Report Unal - Cfa

Appendix 1.
BALANCE SHEET
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
ASSETS
CURRENT ASSETS
Available
30.283
53.852
233.343
299.785
200.684
270.000
329.771
338.804
285.324
Temporary Investments
180.788
530.044
451.683
444.442
697.075
187.000
153.889
185.344
218.373
Receivables, net
160.363
291.912
342.842
273.375
305.748
455.000
464.448
504.448
544.448
Inventories
8.047
8.472
20.888
8.398
10.603
77.500
79.947
82.516
84.957
Expenses paid in advance
8.086
6.895
12.518
29.536
6.068
14.800
14.988
15.181
15.380
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS
387.567
891.175
1.061.274
1.055.536
1.220.178
1.004.300
1.043.042
1.126.292
1.148.480
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Receivables, net
Inventories
Permanent, net investment
2.486
1.874
3.502
12.390
7.650
9.013
8.263
7.551
43.101
45.129
38.488
47.298
46.605
52.447
55.016
57.457
1.627.957
204.938
101.812
102.606
101.060
96.007
91.207
95.767
100.555
818.905
3.053.296
3.202.796
3.268.328
3.342.856
5.170.182
5.236.354
5.246.370
5.257.272
Deferred, net charges
16.343
56.061
67.139
63.757
31.177
32.300
33.985
35.721
37.508
Assets acquired under finance leases, leasing
60.591
6.513
29.320
71.276
163.309
235.000
253.781
270.307
281.463
Intangibles, net
80.106
536.133
424.826
285.521
268.127
270.000
278.205
286.656
295.360
Other assets
10.507
28.146
768
825
810
810
835
860
887
627.039
1.919.994
1.867.730
1.941.359
2.140.033
2.250.000
2.491.195
2.608.722
2.734.533
TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS
3.284.549
5.852.696
5.734.753
5.784.472
6.106.367
8.061.949
8.447.020
8.607.682
8.772.587
TOTAL ASSETS
3.672.116
6.743.871
6.796.027
6.840.008
7.326.545
9.066.249
9.490.062
9.733.974
9.921.067
714.378
27.907
98.713
130.877
33.845
--
9.320
10.638
9.891
11.607
109.993
367.554
338.862
193.550
74.672
51.931
1.678
7.036
9.176
10.185
67.908
90.069
Property, plant and equipment, net
Valuations and devaluations, net
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS 'EQUITY

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Financial obligations
Bonds
Suppliers and accounts payable
Taxes, fees and charges
Employment and comprehensive social security obligations
Estimated liabilities and provisions
Retirement pensions
39.424
39.424
39.424
11.607
83.620
85.754
205.777
273.199
343.840
410.829
479.337
93.269
50.000
52.882
55.850
58.908
11.100
13.656
18.951
24.860
27.569
30.684
36.198
35.329
230.000
278.476
283.831
295.786
--
999
686
--
--
--
--
--
--
23
12.169
9.607
9.184
13.711
21.000
21.025
21.050
21.077
836.257
492.893
632.423
442.731
407.194
644.181
772.114
922.173
1.010.970
395.097
1.212.304
1.154.459
975.577
340.707
960.330
960.330
960.309
960.307
600.000
600.000
600.000
1.400.000
1.988.000
1.988.000
1.904.380
1.818.626
Other liabilities
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES
39.424
11.607
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Bonds
--
--
27.694
13.847
2.000
4.400
5.840
138.408
160.168
164.177
314.217
151.258
182.311
186.985
191.799
196.757
Retirement pensions
--
73.361
75.994
80.149
80.864
83.290
85.789
88.362
93.321
Other liabilities
--
42.019
40.993
40.075
36.040
40.975
42.204
43.471
44.775
533.505
2.087.852
2.063.317
2.023.865
2.008.869
3.254.906
3.265.308
3.192.721
3.119.626
1.369.762
2.580.745
2.695.740
2.466.596
2.416.063
3.899.087
4.037.421
4.114.894
4.130.596
TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES

TOTAL LIABILITIES
MINORITY INTEREST
10.622
1.478.198
1.449.745
1.468.001
1.622.157
1.667.128
1.671.491
1.704.234
1.725.262
SHAREHOLDERS 'EQUITY
2.291.732
2.684.928
2.650.542
2.905.411
3.288.325
3.500.034
3.781.150
3.914.847
4.065.209
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS 'EQUITY
3.672.116
6.743.871
6.796.027
6.840.008
7.326.545
9.066.248
9.490.062
9.733.974
9.921.067
Source: Team Estimates. CEL.CNs Reports.
Appendix 2.
INCOME STATEMENT
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
1.891.637
1.803.939
1.849.505
2.023.672
2.381.116
2.678.462
3.204.217
3.272.458
3.375.665
1.891.637
1.803.939
1.849.505
2.023.672
2.381.116
2.678.462
3.204.217
3.272.458
3.375.665
1.891.637
1.803.939
1.849.505
2.023.672
2.381.116
2.678.462
3.204.217
3.272.458
3.375.665
Cost of Revenue, Total
537.584
1.083.789
1.162.762
1.311.372
1.540.165
1.607.077
1.762.319
1.799.852
1.856.616
Cost of Revenue
537.584
1.083.789
1.162.762
1.311.372
1.540.165
1.607.077
1.762.319
1.799.852
1.856.616
1.354.053
720.150
686.743
712.300
840.951
1.071.385
1.441.898
1.472.606
1.519.049
28,42%
60,08%
62,87%
64,80%
64,68%
60,00%
55,00%
55,00%
55,00%
85.727
131.328
76.529
90.497
94.520
102.241
110.648
104.544
99.200
85.727
131.328
37.112
59.287
59.906
65.897
72.486
65.238
58.714
Labor & Related Expense
--
--
39.417
29.792
32.848
34.490
36.215
37.301
38.420
Advertising Expense
--
--
--
1.418
1.766
1.854
1.947
2.005
2.066
34.586
26.517
28.268
28.435
25.992
27.758
29.919
29.713
30.223
5.106
7.247
5.783
5.867
5.936
6.055
8.477
8.646
8.819
--
--
22.485
22.568
20.056
21.703
21.442
21.067
21.404
Revenue
Net Sales
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
Cost-Revenue Relation
Selling/General/Admin. Expenses, Total
Selling/General/Administrative Expense
Depreciation/Amortization
Depreciation
Amortization of Intangibles
29.480
19.270
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
573
-17.063
-1.572
1.453
4.322
Impairment-Assets Held for Use
--
--
--
880
4.322
Impairment-Assets Held for Sale
--
--
392
--
--
Other Unusual Expense (Income)
573
-17.063
-1.964
573
--
658.470
1.224.571
1.265.987
1.431.757
1.664.999
1.737.076
1.902.886
1.934.110
1.986.039
Amortization of Acquisition Costs

Unusual Expense (Income)
Total Operating Expense
1.233.167
579.368
583.518
591.915
716.117
941.386
1.301.330
1.338.348
1.389.626
Interest Expense, Net Non-Operating
-83.702
-110.311
-118.213
-136.995
-121.326
-147.581
-149.939
-152.215
-152.936
Interest Expense - Non-Operating
-83.702
-110.311
-118.213
-136.995
-121.326
-147.581
-149.939
-152.215
-152.936
Interest/Invest Income - Non-Operating
-16.956
150.811
65.142
48.089
4.573
2.369
14.628
18.663
-19.325
136.183
46.479
48.089
4.573
27.332
15.257
-100.658
40.500
-53.071
-61.574
-101.496
0
-147.581
0
-149.939
0
-152.215
0
-152.936
3.275
-1.729
159
-18.663
-6.024
-67.222
-59.693
-143.227
1.480
100.864
-67.222
-59.693
-143.227
1.480
100.864
1.068.562
558.446
387.379
513.158
709.461
0
793.805
0
1.151.391
0
1.186.133
0
1.236.690
Operating Income
Interest Income - Non-Operating

Investment Income - Non-Operating
Interest Income(Exp), Net Non-Operating
Interest Inc.(Exp.),Net-Non-Op., Total
Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets
Other, Net
Other Non-Operating Income (Expense)
Net Income Before Taxes
0,56%
27,42%
35,32%
27,71%
27,43%
27,57%
27,50%
27,53%
27,52%
6.031
153.149
136.830
142.193
194.597
218.845
316.621
326.591
340.294
1.062.531
405.297
250.549
370.965
514.864
574.960
834.770
859.543
896.396
-626
-146.287
-97.658
-140.205
-141.219
-145.456
-149.819
-154.314
-158.943
Net Income Before Extra. Items
1.061.905
259.010
152.891
230.760
373.645
429.504
684.951
705.229
737.453
Net Income
1.061.905
259.010
152.891
230.760
373.645
429.504
684.951
705.229
737.453
Normalized EBIT
1.233.740
562.305
581.946
593.368
720.439
941.386
1.301.330
1.338.348
1.389.626
Normalized EBITDA
1.286.154
682.706
713.033
731.341
851.535
1.021.842 1.083,152,52
1.131.268
1.160.315
Taxes- Net Income Before Taxes Relation

Provision for Income Taxes
Net Income After Taxes
Minority Interest
Appendix 3.
Operational Free Cash Flow
2009
Receivables
2010
160.363,00
Inventory
294.398,00
2011
2012
344.716,00
276.877,00
2013
2014 F
318.138,00
2015 F
2016 F
2017F
462.650,00
473.460,51
512.710,92
551.998,80
142.413,02
51.148,00
53.601,00
59.376,00
55.696,00
57.208,00
77.500,00
132.393,53
137.531,73
Payable
109.993,00
367.554,00
338.862,00
193.550,00
205.777,00
273.198,65
343.839,67
410.828,72
479.337,39
Properties, Plans and Equipment
818.905,00
3.053.296,00
3.202.796,00
3.268.328,00
3.342.856,00
5.170.181,68
5.236.354,29
5.246.369,84
5.257.272,21
Operating taxes Payable
74.672,00
51.931,00
93.269,00
50.000,00
52.882,01
55.850,48
58.908,01
Net Operating Assets N.O.A
1.140.409,00
3.768.849,00
4.020.422,00
3.846.382,00
4.017.248,00
6.033.530,33
6.238.930,02
6.363.291,69
6.489.929,43
Revenues
1.891.637,00
1.803.939,00
1.849.505,00
2.023.672,00
2.381.116,00
2.678.461,90
3.204.216,89
3.272.457,87
3.375.665,04
537.584,00
1.083.789,00
1.162.762,00
1.311.372,00
1.540.165,00
1.660.646,37
1.762.319,29
1.799.851,83
1.856.615,77
6.031,00
153.149,00
136.830,00
142.193,00
194.597,00
188.439,21
236.915,70
242.270,11
254.225,54
1.348.022,00
567.001,00
549.913,00
570.107,00
646.354,00
829.376,31
1.204.981,90
1.230.335,93
1.264.823,72
2.628.440,00
251.573,00
174.040,00
170.866,00
2.016.282,33
205.399,69
124.361,67
126.637,74
2.061.439,00
298.340,00
744.147,00
475.488,00
1.186.906,02
999.582,21
1.105.974,26
1.138.185,98
Cost of Revenues
Cost of Taxes
NOPAT
Variation of N.O.A
Operational FCF
Appendix 4.
Free Cash Flow Equity
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 F
2015 F
2016 F
2017F
Liabilities
395.097,00
1.812.304,00
1.754.459,00
1.575.577,00
1.740.707,00
2.948.330,00
2.948.330,00
2.864.689,00
2.778.933,00
Cash
211.071,00
583.896,00
685.026,00
744.227,00
897.759,00
457.000,00
483.659,84
524.148,22
503.696,80
180,00
180,00
180,00
180,00
180,00
180,00
180,00
180,00
180,00
1.061.905,00
259.010,00
152.891,00
230.760,00
373.645,00
390.703,48
684.951,23
705.228,92
737.452,83
Paying and Subscribed Capital

Net Income
Retained Earnings
615.530,00
811.378,00
1.843.925,00
1.929.817,00
2.088.618,00
2.345.747,48
2.614.616,02
3.085.975,61
3.571.289,61
NFO
2.737.259,00
2.364.434,00
2.179.663,00
2.034.706,00
842.948,00
2.491.330,00
2.464.670,16
2.340.540,78
2.275.236,20
Patrimonio
2.291.732,00
2.684.928,00
2.650.542,00
2.905.411,00
3.288.325,00
3.500.033,98
3.781.149,80
3.914.846,90
4.065.209,12
83.702,00
110.311,00
118.213,00
136.995,00
121.326,00
147.581,00
149.939,00
152.215,00
152.936,00
1.264.320,00
456.690,00
431.700,00
433.112,00
525.028,00
681.795,31
1.055.042,90
1.078.120,93
1.111.887,72
Gastos Financieros
FCFE
Appendix 5.
COMMON SIZE
BALANCE SHEET
2009
ASSETS
CURRENT ASSETS
Available
Temporary Investments
Receivables, net
Inventories
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS
NON-CURRENT ASSETS
Receivables, net
Inventories
Permanent, net investment
Intangibles, net
Other assets
Valuations and devaluations, net
TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
0,8%
4,9%
4,4%
0,2%
0,2%
0,10554323
0,8%
7,9%
4,3%
0,1%
0,1%
0,13214591
3,4%
6,6%
5,0%
0,3%
0,2%
0,15616095
4,4%
6,5%
4,0%
0,1%
0,4%
0,15431795
2,7%
9,5%
4,2%
0,1%
0,1%
0,16654207
3,0%
2,1%
5,0%
0,9%
0,2%
0,11077349
3,5%
1,6%
4,9%
0,8%
0,2%
0,10990884
3,5%
1,9%
5,2%
0,8%
0,2%
0,11570735
2,9%
2,2%
5,5%
0,9%
0,2%
0,11576179
0,0%
1,2%
44,3%
22,3%
0,4%
1,7%
2,2%
0,3%
17,1%
0,89445677
0,0%
100%
0,0%
0,7%
3,0%
45,3%
0,8%
0,1%
7,9%
0,4%
28,5%
0,86785409
0,0%
100%
0,0%
0,6%
1,5%
47,1%
1,0%
0,4%
6,3%
0,0%
27,5%
0,84383905
0,0%
100%
0,1%
0,7%
1,5%
47,8%
0,9%
1,0%
4,2%
0,0%
28,4%
0,84568205
0,0%
100%
0,2%
0,6%
1,4%
45,6%
0,4%
2,2%
3,7%
0,0%
29,2%
0,83345793
0,0%
100%
0,1%
0,0%
1,1%
57,0%
0,4%
2,6%
3,0%
0,0%
24,8%
0,88922651
0,0%
100%
0,1%
0,6%
1,0%
55,2%
0,4%
2,7%
2,9%
0,0%
26,3%
0,89009116
0,0%
100%
0,1%
0,6%
1,0%
53,9%
0,4%
2,8%
2,9%
0,0%
26,8%
0,88429265
0,0%
100%
0,1%
0,6%
1,0%
53,0%
0,4%
2,8%
3,0%
0,0%
27,6%
0,88423821
0,0%
100%
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS 'EQUITY

CURRENT LIABILITIES
Bonds
Retirement pensions
Other liabilities
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES
19,5%
0,0%
3,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,3%
0,0%
0,0%
22,8%
0,4%
0,1%
5,5%
0,0%
0,1%
1,0%
0,0%
0,2%
7,3%
1,5%
0,2%
5,0%
1,1%
0,1%
1,3%
0,0%
0,1%
9,3%
1,9%
0,1%
2,8%
0,8%
0,2%
0,5%
0,0%
0,1%
6,5%
0,5%
0,2%
2,8%
1,3%
0,2%
0,5%
0,0%
0,2%
5,6%
0,4%
0,1%
3,0%
0,6%
0,2%
2,5%
0,0%
0,2%
7,1%
0,4%
0,1%
3,6%
0,6%
0,3%
2,9%
0,0%
0,2%
8,1%
0,4%
0,9%
4,2%
0,6%
0,3%
2,9%
0,0%
0,2%
9,5%
0,4%
0,9%
4,8%
0,6%
0,3%
3,0%
0,0%
0,2%
10,2%
NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
Bonds
Retirement pensions
Other liabilities
TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES
0,0%
10,8%
0,0%
0,0%
3,8%
0,0%
0,0%
14,5%
0,0%
18,0%
8,9%
0,0%
2,4%
1,1%
0,6%
31,0%
0,0%
17,0%
8,8%
0,4%
2,4%
1,1%
0,6%
30,4%
0,0%
14,3%
8,8%
0,2%
4,6%
1,2%
0,6%
29,6%
0,0%
4,7%
19,1%
0,0%
2,1%
1,1%
0,5%
27,4%
0,0%
10,6%
21,9%
0,0%
2,0%
0,9%
0,5%
35,9%
0,0%
10,1%
20,9%
0,0%
2,0%
0,9%
0,4%
34,4%
0,0%
9,9%
19,6%
0,0%
2,0%
0,9%
0,4%
32,8%
0,0%
9,7%
18,3%
0,1%
2,0%
0,9%
0,5%
31,4%
TOTAL LIABILITIES
37,3%
38,3%
39,7%
36,1%
33,0%
43,0%
42,5%
42,3%
41,6%
MINORITY INTEREST
SHAREHOLDERS 'EQUITY
0,3%
62,4%
21,9%
39,8%
21,3%
39,0%
21,5%
42,5%
22,1%
44,9%
18,4%
38,6%
17,6%
39,8%
17,5%
40,2%
17,4%
41,0%
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS 'EQUITY
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
TOTAL ASSETS
Appendix 6.
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
100,0%
28,4%
100,0%
60,1%
100,0%
62,9%
100,0%
64,8%
100,0%
64,7%
100,0%
60,0%
100,0%
55,0%
100,0%
55,0%
100,0%
55,0%
Cost of Revenue
28,4%
60,1%
62,9%
64,8%
64,7%
60,0%
55,0%
55,0%
55,0%
71,6%
0,0%
39,9%
0,0%
37,1%
0,0%
35,2%
0,0%
35,3%
0,0%
40,0%
0,0%
45,0%
0,0%
45,0%
0,0%
45,0%
0,0%
Gross Profit
Cost-Revenue Relation
4,5%
7,3%
4,1%
4,5%
4,0%
3,8%
3,5%
3,2%
2,9%
Selling/General/Administrative Expense
4,5%
7,3%
2,0%
2,9%
2,5%
2,5%
2,3%
2,0%
1,7%
Labor & Related Expense
0,0%
0,0%
2,1%
1,5%
1,4%
1,3%
1,1%
1,1%
1,1%
Advertising Expense
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,1%
0,1%
0,1%
0,1%
0,1%
0,1%
1,8%
1,5%
1,5%
1,4%
1,1%
1,0%
0,9%
0,9%
0,9%
Depreciation
0,3%
0,4%
0,3%
0,3%
0,2%
0,2%
0,3%
0,3%
0,3%
Amortization of Intangibles
0,0%
0,0%
1,2%
1,1%
0,8%
0,8%
0,7%
0,6%
0,6%
Amortization of Acquisition Costs
1,6%
1,1%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
-0,9%
-0,1%
0,1%
0,2%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Impairment-Assets Held for Use
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,2%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Impairment-Assets Held for Sale
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Other Unusual Expense (Income)
0,0%
-0,9%
-0,1%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Total Operating Expense
34,8%
67,9%
68,5%
70,8%
69,9%
64,9%
59,4%
59,1%
58,8%
Operating Income
65,2%
-4,4%
32,1%
-6,1%
31,5%
-6,4%
29,2%
-6,8%
30,1%
-5,1%
35,1%
-5,5%
40,6%
-4,7%
40,9%
-4,7%
41,2%
-4,5%
Unusual Expense (Income)
Interest Expense - Non-Operating
-4,4%
-6,1%
-6,4%
-6,8%
-5,1%
-5,5%
-4,7%
-4,7%
-4,5%
-0,9%
8,4%
3,5%
2,4%
0,2%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Interest Income - Non-Operating
0,1%
0,8%
1,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Investment Income - Non-Operating
-1,0%
7,5%
2,5%
2,4%
0,2%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
Interest Income(Exp), Net Non-Operating
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
1,4%
0,6%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
-5,3%
2,2%
-2,9%
-3,0%
-4,3%
-5,5%
-4,7%
-4,7%
-4,5%
Interest Inc.(Exp.),Net-Non-Op., Total

Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets
Other, Net
Other Non-Operating Income (Expense)
Net Income Before Taxes
Taxes- Net Income Before Taxes Relation
0,2%
-0,1%
0,0%
-0,9%
-0,3%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
-3,6%
-3,3%
-7,7%
0,1%
4,2%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
-3,6%
-3,3%
-7,7%
0,1%
4,2%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
56,5%
0,0%
31,0%
0,0%
20,9%
0,0%
25,4%
0,0%
29,8%
0,0%
29,6%
0,0%
35,9%
0,0%
36,2%
0,0%
36,6%
0,0%
0,3%
8,5%
7,4%
7,0%
8,2%
8,2%
9,9%
10,0%
10,1%
Minority Interest
56,2%
0,0%
22,5%
-8,1%
13,5%
-5,3%
18,3%
-6,9%
21,6%
-5,9%
21,5%
-5,4%
26,1%
-4,7%
26,3%
-4,7%
26,6%
-4,7%
Net Income Before Extra. Items
56,1%
14,4%
8,3%
11,4%
15,7%
16,0%
21,4%
21,6%
21,8%
Net Income
56,1%
14,4%
8,3%
11,4%
15,7%
16,0%
21,4%
21,6%
21,8%

Net Income After Taxes
Appendix 7.
PROFITABILITY RATIOS
EBITDA Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Core Operating Margin
Net Profit Margin
Return of Equity
Return of Assets
LIQUIDITY
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Cash Ratio
ACTIVITY
DSO
DOH
Days of Payables
Cash Convertion Cycle
Total Asset Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover
FINANCIAL LEVERAGE
Asset to Equity
Debt to equity
Debt to Assets
Long-term debt to Assets
Long-term debt to Equity
Interest Coverage
CASH FLOW
OCF/EARNINGS
SHAREHOLDER RATIOS
Earnings per Share
Dividend per Share
Dividend Payout Ratio
2010
37,8%
32,1%
39,9%
14,4%
10,4%
5,0%
2011
38,6%
31,5%
37,1%
8,3%
5,7%
2,3%
2012
36,1%
29,2%
35,2%
11,4%
8,3%
3,4%
2013
35,8%
30,1%
35,3%
15,7%
12,1%
5,3%
2014F
39,7%
35,1%
40,0%
16,0%
12,7%
5,2%
2015F
44,8%
40,6%
45,0%
21,4%
18,8%
7,4%
2016F
45,4%
40,9%
45,0%
21,6%
18,3%
7,3%
2017F
46,0%
41,2%
45,0%
21,8%
18,5%
7,3%
1,81
1,79
1,18
1,68
1,65
1,08
2,38
2,37
1,68
3,00
2,97
2,20
1,56
1,44
0,71
1,38
1,28
0,65
1,42
1,33
0,77
1,63
1,54
0,99
17,7
46,1
80,6
-16,8
0,35
0,93
17,8
63,2
111,2
-30,2
0,27
0,59
16,1
56,2
74,3
-2,0
0,30
0,63
13,4
45,7
47,4
11,7
0,34
0,72
15,3
53,3
54,5
14,1
0,33
0,63
21,8
53,5
64,1
11,2
0,34
0,62
27,4
55,1
76,7
5,9
0,34
0,62
27,6
57,7
87,7
-2,4
0,33
0,64
2,51
0,96
0,38
0,31
0,78
(14,5)
2,56
1,02
0,40
0,30
0,78
11,5
2,35
0,85
0,36
0,30
0,70
10,1
2,23
0,73
0,33
0,27
0,61
7,4
2,59
1,11
0,43
0,36
0,93
6,6
2,52
1,07
0,42
0,34
0,86
8,9
2,53
1,05
0,41
0,32
0,82
9,0
2,56
1,02
0,40
0,30
0,77
9,3
-1,14
0,16
0,37
0,20
-0,42
0,31
0,34
0,34
$ 360,24 $ 212,35 $ 320,50 $ 518,95 $ 596,53 $ 951,32 $ 979,48 $ 1.024,24

$ 81,67 $ 89,95 $ 99,94 $ 111,94 $ 123,13 $ 135,44 $ 148,99 $ 163,88
22,7%
42,4%
31,2%
21,6%
20,6%
14,2%
15,2%
16,0%
Appendix 8. Residual Income Model.
2009
Net Income
Equity
Residual Income
Ke
RESIDUAL INCOME
Present Value RI 14-17
PVPRI2014
EV
PR STOCK
2.291.732,00
-
2010
259.010,00
2.684.928,00
16.219,40
12,01%
324.305,26
1.071.352,86
4.683.983,12
6.505,53
Source: Team Estimates.
2011
152.891,00
2.650.542,00
158.320,82
11,59%
2012
230.760,00
2.905.411,00
80.653,97
11,75%
2,80%
2013
373.645,00
3.288.325,00
42.676,04
11,39%
2014 F
390.703,48
3.500.033,98
79.114,75
16,79%
2015 F
684.951,23
3.781.149,80
184.885,16
14,29%
2016 F
705.228,92
3.914.846,90
172.615,12
14,09%
2017F
737.452,83
4.065.209,12
186.963,64
14,06%
Appendix 9. DCF Model.
2014
2015
2016
2017
Residual Value
12.581.171,26
Operational FCF Vpn
WACC
2018
1.186.906,02
999.582,21
1.105.974,26
1.138.185,98
1.047.678,45
778.828,58
760.641,58
690.971,22
6.741.856,15
13,289%
Value Firm
7.924.619,08
PV Debt
3.054.789,23
Equity Value
4.869.829,85
Shares
2,80%
719.584.500
Stock Price
6.767,56
Appendix 10. Relative Price Value.
P/E Average
14,82
CEL.CN Actual Price
5.800,00
Net Income 2014F
390.703.478.485,69
Number of Shares
719.584.500,00
EPS
542,96
CEL.CNs P/E
10,68
Comparative Ratio
2.678.461.895.135,78
3.722,23
CEL.CNs P/S
1,56
Average P/S
1,38
Comparative Ratio
Price P/S
0,13
5.029,56
0,39
Price P/E
CEL.CNs Equity
Projected Sales 14
Sales 2014F
8.048,47
3.517.084.551.083,75
Book Value PS
4.887,66
Average EV/EBITDA
9,93
CEL.CNs EV/EBITDA
8,26
CEL.CNs P/B
1,19
Comparative Ratio
Average P/B
1,50
Price EV/EBITDA
6.968,88
Precio Promedio
6.849,47
Comparative Ratio
Price P/B
0,20
0,27
7.350,98
Appendix 11. Criteria For Peers Selection.
In order to select the peers to be used in the Star Mine Analysis, we chose companies that are in compliance with the
following criteria:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Companies that belong to the utilities sector.

Companies that operate as energy utilities.
Companies publicly traded.
Companies that take part of a holding.
Companies with a market capitalization within a range from USD 1.189.808.318 to USD 3.189.808.318 and, since
CEL.CN market capitalization was USD 2.189.808.318 as of 6th October 2014.
6. Filter by enterprise value within a range from USD 2.468.000.000 to USD 4.468.000.000, since CEL.CN enterprise
value was USD 3.468.00.000 as of 6th October 2014.
7. Companies with an income structure closest to CEL.CN income structure.
8. Finally, we included Colombian CEL.CNs most important direct competitors listed in the stock exchange.
Appendix 12. Total Revenues.

TOTAL REVENUE
Energy Exchange Sales
Contract Energy Sales
Confiability Charge
Network Uses
Regulated Supply
Unregulated Supply
Gas Supply
Others
Foreign Subsidiaries
2010
1.805.495,00
683.525,00
93.354,00
173.524,00
167.540,00
368.822,00
137.042,00
94.012,00
87.676,00
VENTA DE ENERGIA EN BOLSA

VENTA DE ENERGIA EN CONTRATOS
CARGO POR CONFIABILIDAD
USO DE REDES
COMERCIALIZACION REGULADO
COMERCIALIZACION NO REGULADO
COMERCIALIZACION GAS NATURAL
OTROS
FILIALES EXTRANJERAS
2011
1.849.505,00
471.050,00
275.127,00
205.226,00
194.974,00
373.563,00
143.635,00
167.639,00
18.291,00
2011
-31,09%
194,71%
18,27%
16,37%
3,00%
2,28%
11,11%
-79,14%
0%
2012
2.023.672,00
646.197,00
245.896,00
209.343,00
194.337,00
397.437,00
146.215,00
152.912,00
31.335,00
2012
37,18%
-10,62%
2,01%
-0,33%
3,06%
6,95%
30,00%
71,31%
0%
2013
2.385.922,00
1.067.708,00
236.050,00
221.617,00
197.408,00
397.437,00
177.637,00
52.655,00
35.410,00
Grows Table
2013
65,23%
-4,00%
5,86%
1,58%
3,36%
27,38%
-15,38%
13,00%
0%
2014 F
2.678.461,90
1.088.165,26
276.940,62
232.693,00
209.007,78
414.193,17
230.689,24
175.035,83
51.737,00
2015 F
3.204.216,89
965.738,55
293.557,06
240.552,00
213.974,91
434.842,11
233.081,57
175.035,83
52.255,00
595.179,87
2016 F
3.272.457,87
958.089,17
299.209,68
252.066,00
220.988,16
457.840,58
236.499,19
164.096,09
52.778,00
630.891,00
2017 F
3.375.665,04
956.919,23
308.475,08
268.144,00
229.481,60
461.287,50
254.270,80
175.035,83
53.306,00
668.745,00
2014
2015
2016
2017
5,00%
5,91%
2,85%
22,87%
45,13%
46,11%
0%
3,38%
5,88%
4,99%
1,00%
-1,53%
1,00%
0%
4,79%
5,88%
5,29%
1,45%
-7,02%
1,00%
6%
6,38%
5,88%
0,75%
7,48%
3,17%
1,00%
6%
Appendix 13. WACC
Costs
Bonds
LT Debts
ST Debts
Equity
WACC
2013
7,81%
11,78%
15,47%
11,39%
10,68%
2014 F
7,85%
11,80%
13,00%
16,79%
13,29%
2015 F
7,86%
11,81%
12,00%
14,29%
12,04%
2016 F
7,86%
11,81%
12,00%
14,09%
12,02%
2017 F
7,86%
11,81%
12,00%
14,06%
12,10%
Weight
Bonds
LT Debts
ST Debts
Equity
2013
20,95%
5,10%
0,46%
73,49%
2014 F
30,64%
14,80%
0,61%
53,95%
2015 F
29,37%
14,19%
0,58%
55,86%
2016 F
27,93%
14,08%
0,58%
57,41%
2017 F
26,42%
13,95%
0,57%
59,06%
Appendix 14. Build Up Method (Cost of Equity).
Sector Prime
Prime
Debt Cost
Equity Cost
2010
2011
2012
2013
3,36%
8,65%
12,01%
-1,06%
8,65%
7,59%
3,10%
8,65%
11,75%
2,74%
8,65%
11,39%
2014
2,00%
5,60%
9,19%
16,79%
2015
2,00%
3,10%
9,19%
14,29%
2016
2,00%
2,86%
9,23%
14,09%
Appendix 15.
BONDS
CELSIA
E3 IBR+ 2,17%
D6 IPC + 4,30%
D12 IPC + 5,00%
D20 IPC + 5,33%
Periodicity
Monthly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Maturity
EPSA
7 aos IPC + 4,58%
10 aos IPC + 5,05%
20 aos IPC + 6,08%
Periodicity
Quarterly
Quarterly
Quarterly
Maturity
Yield
2016
2019
2025
2033
5,9%
6,4%
7,2%
8,3%
Yield
2017
2020
2030
7,30%
8,40%
9,40%
2017
2,00%
2,79%
9,27%
14,06%
Appendix 16. Revenues Projection.
Total Revenues
2014
2.678.461,90
Energy Exchange Sales
1.088.165,26 965.738,55
Contract Energy Sales
276.940,62
2015
3.204.216,89
293.557,06
2016
3.272.457,87
2017
3.375.665,04
958.089,17
956.919,23
299.209,68
308.475,08
To project the sales in the Energy Exchange, we took into account a study realized by the UPME. Then, we
computed the historic average of sales from CEL.CN. The prices from the Energy Exchange were estimated
with an ARIMA with the characteristics of AR(1,12)I MA(13) DLX.
To project the energy sales by contracts, we assumed that CEL.CNs market share within this market
segment would remain unchanged, as of 2013. Demand was forecasted based on the cited UPME study.
Finally we determined an average price out of the historical prices of contracts.
Appendix 17. Weight Index
Drivers
Multiplos
FCFF
RI
Electrcity Prices GDP Growth

3
1
2
1
3
2
Increase Infraestructure Ambiental Factors Fuel Prices (Costs) TOTAL

1
2
2
3
3
1
2
1
3
9
0,3
11 0,36666667
10 0,33333333
3 Lowest Sensitive
2 Neutral Sensitive
1 Most Sensitive
The index was constructed based on the sensibility of each model to the changes in the key drivers
of the sector. By changing the key drivers, Ceteris Paribus leaving the rest constant we
determined the sensitiveness of each model. If the model was very sensitive we ranked it with a 3.
On the contrary, we ranked the model with a 1.
Appendix 18. Starmine 1
Starmine: Shows how the company performs in contrast to its peers, in the key financial Ratios. Fundamentals
100%
12,0
90%
80%
70%
10,0
Celsia SA ESP
8,0
60%
50%
6,0
40%
30%
20%
4,0
2,0
10%
0%
0,0
Empresa de
Energia de Bogota
SA ESP
Isagen SA ESP
Appendix 19. Starmine 2
Starmine: Shows how the company performs compared to its peers, by comparing a mix between the fundamentals ratios and
Market factors.
100%
10,0
90%
80%
8,0
8,0
70%
Celsia SA ESP
7,4
60%
6,1
6,0
50%
3,9
40%
4,0
3,6
30%
Competitors
Average
20%
2,0
10%
0%
0,0
Appendix 20
Colombian last three years GDP percentage growth rate was higher than the Worlds and Latin America & Caribbeans
average, it was as well higher than Brazil GDP growth, which is the biggest economy in the region.
Moreover, for the next two years, according to the IMF, this behaviour is expected to continue.
7,0%
6,6%
6,0%
5,0%
4,3%
4,0%
3,0%
2,7%
2,8%
4,3%
4,0%
4,50%
3,80%
3,30%
2,8%
2,4%
2,0%
1,0%
1,0%
4,80%
2,5%2,4%
2,2%
2,20%
1,30%
1,40%
0,30%
0,0%
2011
Colombia
2012
2013
2014* F
2015* F
Brazil
Latin America & Caribbean
World Avarage
Source: Team estimates. World Bank Database
Appendix 21. CEL.CNs Organizational Mapping
Source: Team estimates.
Appendix 22. ARG.CNs Subsidiaries Geographical Location
Source: Team Estimates
Appendix 23. CEL.CNs Corporate Management

Managment Team
Juan Guillermo Londoo P. (CEO)
Celsia's president since June 2006.

Business Manager from the University EAFIT.
He was General Manager of Ramon H. Londoo SA, President of Coninsa &
Ramon
H.S.A,
ofdirectors
Colinversiones
Integrates
the
BoardsS.A.
of Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana S.A,
EPSA S.A E.S.P, Smurfit Kappa Carton de Colombia S.A, Urbansa S.A and Situm
S.A.S.
Ana Mara Calle (Chief Development Office)
Germn Garcia (Chief Operation Officer)
Part of the Boards of Directors of Higher Education of Antioquia, Andesco,

Acolgen, Finance Council of the Archidiocese of Medelln and Celsia and EPSA
Foundations.
Part of Celsia's management Committee since 2011.
Electrical Engineer from the Pontificia Bolivariana University, Specialist in
Finance and Project Evaluation from the Antioquia University and Master in
Management from Eafit University.
She has served as Manager of Corporate Development at UNE and Director
of Institutional Finance at EPM.
Electrical Engineer from the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Master in
Electric Power Generation Systems in the Universidad del Valle, Executive MBA
in Business Administration at the Universidad de los Andes and MBA Executive Development Program at the Universidad ESADE in Madrid, Spain.
He was EPSA's Manager of Business Operations and Operational Director.
He also served as Manager of Electrocosta S.A. E.S.P., Electricaribe S.A. E.S.P. and
former professor at the Universidad del Valle
Claudia Salzar (Human Resources and Administration)
Graduated from Social Work at the Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana,

specialized in Management from the same University.
Served as National Coordinator of Social Welfare at Solla SA, later joined as
Regional Coordinator of Labour Welfare at Almacenes xito S.A., where she
served as Regional Training Coordinator, Head of Department of Labour
Welfare, Head of Personal Training, Regional Chief of Human Management
and finally, National Director of Human Resources.
Alberto Gutirrez P. (Chief Project Development

Officer)
Vice president of Generation Projects for Celsia since 2012.

Civil Engineer from the National University of Colombia and Management
Specialist from the Pontificia Bolivariana University.
He has served as Water manager for EPM, Water Projects assistant manager,
Energy Generation Projects assistant manager and Deputy Head of the Energy
Generation Projects, also in that company.
Electronic Engineer from the Pontificia Bolivariana University, Specialist in
Management from the same university and Specialist in Economic Regulation
and Industrial Organization from the Eafit University.
He was vice president of Energy with Colinversiones since the beginning of
the transformation of the company. He was president of the National Council
for Electrical Operation in 3 different years of Acolgen (Colombian Association
of Generators). Currently belongs to boards of directors of: Andesco (National
Association of utilities and communications) board of directors, Acolgen and
EPSA.
Graduated from Administrative Engineering from the Escuela de Ingeniera
de Antioquia, held a Global MBA with emphasis in International Business at
Thunderbird School of Global Management / Tecnolgico de Monterrey.
Rafael Prez C. (Chief Regulation Officer)
Esteban Piedrahita (Financial Vice-President)
Rafael Jos Olivella (Vice-President of Corporate Affairs)
Source: CEL.CN's Reports
Worked at Procter & Gamble, where he served as manufacturing cost analyst,

and later as Plant Finance Manager. Later joined Compania Colombiana de
Inversiones S.A. E.S.P.(now Celsia S.A. E.S.P.) as Project Manager and later as
Manager of Financial Planning.
Obtained his law degree at the Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, specialized
in Commercial Law at the Universidad de los Andes.
During 2006 and 2007, he served as lawyer in Cementos Argos S.A., where he
participated in the negotiation of different types of contracts, care of
processes and claims, acquisition of companies and matters related to some
financing forms.
In 2008 he joined Compaia Colombiana de Inversiones S.A. as Corporate
Legal Manager and General Secretary.
He later became Legal Vice President of Celsia S.A. E.S.P. and since 2012 has
been in charge of the Vice Presidency of Corporate Affairs.
Corporate Auditing
Juan Fernando Fernndez (Corporate Auditor) He is Celsia Corporate Auditor since 2008
Public Accountant from the University of Medelln and Specialist in Finance and
stock Markets.
He has served as Audit Manager of Pricewatherhouse Coopers Ltda and Risk
Manager and Auditing of Colinversiones S.A., among others.
Board of Directors
Jos Alberto Vlez C. (President of Board)
Ricardo Sierrra Fernndez
Currently he is the President (CEO) of Grupo Argos S.A.

Business Engineer from Universidad Nacional de Colombia and Master of
Science in Engineering from University of California, UCLA, USA. He also taken
specialized courses at Harvard University, Northwestern University and
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT.
Worked in Suramericana de Seguros for 19 years, where he was CEO during
his last 4 years in the company.
Member of the Board of Directors of Grupo Sura, Bancolombia, Cementos
Argos, Arcos Dorados.
He is part of the Private Council of Proantioquia, Codesarrollo, Fundacin
Suramericana, Fundacin Fraternidad Medelln and EAFIT University.
In 2012, after the split of Cementos Argos S.A, became Vice President of
Corporate Finance of Grupo Argos S.A.
Graduated in Business Administration at the Universidad EAFIT and
subsequently conducted a Degree in Politicla Studies at the same university.
Gonzalo Alberto Prez
Juan Benavides Estvez
Manuel Ignacio Dussan
He is currently enrolled in the Executive MBA TRIUM program of London

School Of Economics -LSE-, the Business School of Pars -HEC-, and New York
University -NYU-.
Currently President of Suramericana S.A
Obtained his law Degree at the Universidad de Medelln, specialized in
insurance.
He attended the CEO Management Program at Kellogg Graduate School of
Management. He was Vice President of Insurance and Vice President of
corporate Affair at Inversura S.A
Member of the Boards of Directors of Bancolombia S.A, Nutresa S.A,
Fundacin Suramericana and Fasecolda.
He currently directs the Interdisciplinary Center for Development Studies (CIDER)
of the Universidad de los Andes.
Electrical engineer from Universidad de los Andes, Specialist in Advanced
Mathematics of Universidad Nacional, Specialist in Energy Systems Management
from the Universidad de los Andes and Ph.D. in Mineral Economics.
He has worked in the electricity sector in Colombia and as Advisor Senior in
the Comisin Regulatoria de Energa y Gas (CREG) during establishment phase.
Has been a member of the Infrastructure Commission appointed by the President
of the Republic and belongs to the Council that is Structuring the Agencia Nacional
de Infraestructura (ANI).
Electrical engineer graduated from Universidad de los Andes,
with a master in Control Systems from Northwestern University (Evanston, USA).
He has an experience of over 35 years in the energy sector in Colombia, Latin

America and Eastern Europe, with emphasis on the design, development and
operation of energy markets (electricity, natural gas and petroleum), reforming and
privatizing of electricity sectors, preparation of national energy plans and evaluation
of projects for generation, transmission and distribution of electricity.
Mara Luisa Mesa
Mara Fernanda Meja
Graduated from Colegio Mayor de Nuestra Seora del Rosario, with experience in
the public, private and academic sector, with emphasis on the study and practice of
corporate and bussines law and aeronautic law.
Currently she is an alternate member of the Board of Directors of Casa Editorial El
Tiempo S.A., CEETV S.A. and Soprinsa S.A.
Public Accountant from Universidad Javeriana de Cali
She has more than 27 years working in Mac S.A., today EMA Holdings S.A., with
formation at External Auditing, Certified Management Systems, Corporate
Governance and Corporate Social Responsibility.
Appendix 24. CEL.CNs Corporate Governance

The Best Corporate Governance Practices for CEL.CN has been one of the main items in the policies of the company. Since the
company has established itself in the energy sector, after being a mix of inversions, there was always a policy of excellence in the
intern process, guided by its board of directors and team management, which are composed by professionals and highly qualified
people.
We determined the level of compliance with the Corporate Governance Practices after analyzing four main topics, understood in the
Colombian Country Code which, is based in the precepts of the OECD. These were: Shareholder Rights and Equitable Treatment,
Shareholders Meeting, Board of Directors and Financial and nonfinancial information.
In Shareholder Rights and Equitable Treatment several items were studied as adoption of one share-one vote policy, the Fair,
balanced and comparable permanent dissemination of corporate information, the disclosure of sufficient information to
shareholders, or mechanisms in place that protect minority shareholders.
Shareholders Meeting is considered as the supreme authority which has express and delegated powers. The deadlines are set
appropriately, as well the convocation mechanisms, schedule and functioning of the assembly. Involvement policy and decisions of
shareholders and institutional investors are also established. The
The Board of Directors is composed uniquely by professionals; it is the authority of management and establishes audit, risk,
governance, nomination and election committees. It publishes periodic reports on corporate governance and performance. The
board has established information on powers and scope of directors. Its responsible of the comprehensive enterprise wide
compliance program that is annually reviewed and disclosed. There is also a Power separation between chairman and president of
the board.
We highlighted in Financial and Nonfinancial Information the separated internal audit function, overseen by board, also that
CEL.CN point out relevant audit information. And finally, in 2014, IFRS was adopted.
After this analysis we found that CEL.CN has best practices of corporate governance, making its operation stronger and more stable.
Shareholder Rights and Equitable Treatment - CEL.CN established statutes guided on: 1) One-share-one-vote
policy 2) Submission to arbitration 3) Fair, balanced and comparable permanent dissemination of corporate
information 4) Preparation and disclosure of sufficient information to shareholders on extraordinary operations
that may affect their interests 5) Disclosed compensation policies and beneficial ownership of management. 6)
Mechanisms in place that protect minority shareholders 7) Pre-emptive right and right to dividends.
Shareholders Meeting - 1) Supreme authority, with express and delegated powers 2) Setting deadlines,
convocation mechanisms, schedule and functioning of the assembly 3) Involvement policy and decisions of
shareholders and institutional investors.
Board of Directors - 1) Authority of management 2) Established audit, risk, governance, nomination and election
committees 3) Periodic reports on corporate governance and performance 4) Information on powers and scope of
directors. 6) Comprehensive enterprise wide compliance program that is annually reviewed and disclosed 7)
Separation of powers between chairman and president of the board.
Financial and nonfinancial information - 1) Separated internal audit function, overseen by board. 2) Point out
relevant audit information. 3) In 2014, IFRS were adopted
100%
92,09%
87,80%
88,30%
Shareholders
Rights
Meeting of
Shareholders
87,20%
80%
60%
Board
Financial
information
Appendix 25. CEL.CNs Sustainability

The CEL.CNs sustainability policies are focused on creating value over time for all of its stakeholders, in an ethical and transparent
way that balances economic profits, social development, inclusion, and respect for the environment.
Economic Dimension: CEL.CN wants to provide profitable, quality and efficient energy, encouraging ethical and
transparent behavior, and managing its risks responsibly. CEL.CNs aim is providing timely and effective response to
energy demand through its human team, technology and financial resources which ensure the quality and availability of
the service in the medium and long term. Moreover, CEL.CN has established a framework of solid action regarding ethics
and integrity throughout the organization.
Social Dimension: This dimension is understood as the commitment to the comprehensive development of its employees,
its families and its communities where CEL.CN operates. This, in order to improve quality of life and to create
environments of mutual benefit, respect and trust.
There are practices and policies that improve the human capital. Also, CEL.CN establishes relationships with the
communities in its areas of influence during the planning, construction and operation of generation and distribution assets
in order to improve the quality of life and to contribute the social development, creating an environment of trust and
support. Here, we highlight the Celsia Foundation, which aid to improve the education in the company areas of influence.
Environmental Dimension: Within this dimension CEL.CN wants to achieve its results by optimizing the use of natural
resources, with the mitigation, off-set of the environmental impacts of its operations, and also with the promotion and
respect for the environment. CEL.CN has a policy of eco-efficency, looking to reduce negative impacts on the environment.
Is important to highlight the care and treatment of water basins and vegetation cover neighboring operations from
provision and use, to disposal and drainage.
Source: CEL.CNs reports
Appendix 26. Porters Five Forces Analysis

Five Forces Analysis on CELs Core Distribution Business
LEGEND
0 No threat to the business

1 Insignificant threat to the business
2 Low threat to the business
3 Moderate threat to the business
4 Significant threat to the business
5 High threat to the business
Threat of New Entrants | MODERATE

The regulation of the utilities business in Colombia determines that there are no entry barriers to participate in the energy market. However in
the power electric utilities business there is a license granted by the government to secure the supply of energy in the country. CEL has acquired a
part of these licenses ensuring its participation in the market for at least the next coming 10 years. Moreover the huge capital required to set up
its own infrastructure serves as a significant entry barrier. Due to that the unique entry barriers in the market are the huge capital investment
required. We consider as MODERATE the threat of new entrants.
Threat of Substitute Products | LOW
As was stated, the regulation in Colombia does not establish any entry barriers in the market. For this reason, any substitute product could appear
in the Colombian market. Substitutes could be power electric generation by renewable sources. However, the costs associated with these types of
power electric generation are higher than the costs associated with the traditional power electric generation, hydroelectric and thermoelectric.
While any substitute product could enter the market, the costs of implementation could mean a disincentive. We assess the substitutes threat to
be LOW
Bargaining Power of Customers | LOW
In all the zones of CELs influence as in all the country by regulation electric energy prices are established. Within the regulated market the tariff is
established according to the social stratum of the customers that have acquired the service. However, in the unregulated market the customers
have the possibility to trade the prices of the electric energy with any power electric utility company. Thus, with customers having no choice to
accept the prices that have been established in the regulated market and with the possibility to trade that the customers have in the unregulated
market; we assess the bargaining power of customers to be LOW.
Bargaining Power of Suppliers | LOW
The structure of CEL.CNs operation is developed with a vertically integrated process of the power electric business, because it includes the
generation and transmission (and commercialization with EPSA) of the electric power. The generation requires inputs for hydroelectric and
thermoelectric processes, but actually just the second one, thermoelectric, has supply agreements with the gas suppliers or liquid fuel suppliers,
because the hydroelectric process depends on the weather conditions. However, CEL.CN has acquired best supply agreements with its fuel or gas
suppliers, as a result of strategic connections in this market. The best supply agreements that CEL has acquired led us to assess the bargaining
power of suppliers as LOW.
Competitive Rivalry within the industry | MODERATE
The structure of the Colombian power electric business sector has established that the maximum market participation of any power electric utility
is 25%. CEL.CN has acquired a great position inside the Colombian market, because it is the fourth electric power generator, accounting for the
12% (6170 GWh) of the supply in Colombia and is also the fifth electric power distributor. Thus, CEL.CN has a big opportunity to grow in the
Colombian market. Competitors are important, especially of those that have big market participation, because they are a potential threat;
however, based on the Colombian market development, each power electric utility has completed an important process of establishing themselves
in specific zones, making them stronger in the places where they operate. The different projects of expansion of CEL.CN enables it to affront the
competitive rivalry of others participants of the power electric sector in the country. These factors makes our assessment to be MODERATE for
the competitive rivalry within the industry.
Appendix 27. CEL.CNs SWOT Analysis
Analysis SWOT
Strengths
Opportunities
Ability to rapidly adapt itself and to anticipate the
Diversification of its generation technologies.
challenges of its industry.
Simultaneous participation in the activities of Lower sensitivity to changes in hydrological
generation and distribution.
conditions compared to other market players.
Stable regulatory framework.
Foray into new geographies.
Best corporate governance practices.
Increased use of alternative energy sources.
Better use of competitive advantage derived from

its generation portfolio.
Capacity to deal favorable regulatory changes,
especially in climatic events.
Weaknesses
Threats
Implementation
of
hydroelectric
projects
High debt indicator compared to other companies
developed by its competitors (Quimbo, Ituango
with higher rating.
and Hidrosogamoso).
Lack of experience in the construction of projects High volatility in energy price traded in stocks
of high magnitude.
market.
Lower financial indicators than peers with higher Development of projects and uncontrollable events
rating.
by CEL.CN
Public order situation in the areas where CEL.CN
Gas supply until 2014 guaranteed.
operates.
Future unbalance between supply and demand of
gas according to UPME'S projections.
Source: BRC Investors Services S.A.
Listed on the BVC since 2001.
Appendix 28. Balance Sheet Accounts
Account
Assumption
Available
Elecricity Sells percentage - Operational Expenses percentage
Investment property
Forecasted according to historic performance.
Receivables, net
Percentage of incomes which is not payed in cash.
Inventories
Elecricity Sells percentage

Cash percentage
Accounts reclasification: "Construction in progress" pass "ducts and tunnels Plants".
GDF Suez assets acquisition.
Accounts represented in the prepayd expenses values.

Intangibles, net
Forecasted according to initialising and on the run projects.

Forecasted according to on the run projects.
Other assets
Registered nominal quantities.
Retirement pensions
Electricity sells percentage.

Forecasted according to inflation rate.
Depends of net revenue before taxes. Provision is estimaed from here.
Forecasted according interests payments.
Forecasted by the calculation of cupons payments and bonds maturity.
Other liabilities
Forecasted by using historic growth rate, without distorted accounts.
Shareholder's Equity
Patron evident: reduction to future investment plans with equity

Bonds
Appendix 29. Income Statement Accounts
Account
Assumption

Percentage of total income

Comparison respect to 2010 was carried out, which give us an estimate growth rate same as this proportion
By 2016 Suez's assets depreciation will be taken into consideration.
Forecasted according to the payments for the debt amortization
We didn't forecasted it because it doesn't mean an high percentage of total income.
Net revenue before taxes percentage.
Minority Interest
It will rise by a rate similar to the business growth rate.
Appendix 30. CEL.CNs Risks

In the following table there is a list of the risks which CEL.CN faces, and its mitigation policies.
Risk
Type
Changes in Colombian electric regulation, which

REGULATORY could affect the asset operation, the rentability or
the business continuity.
OPERATIONAL
OPERATIONAL
Mitigation Process
The company tracks variables that could cause adverse regulatory changes, in order to
prevent and mitigate its effects.
The company seeks the optimization of construction costs, involved with lines expansion,
minimizing the impact of the tariffs of assets.
Inability to restore operations related to providing

public services or delays in meeting demand.
The company perfoms maintenance plans to ensure the continuity of the operations.
Delays and over costs in the construction of

projects.
The company follows a strict program to be in complaince with the construction budget.
Furthermore, CEL.CN contracts providers with best technical qulifications.
Providers that manufacture equipment in the generation plants, pay supervision visits to
the place.
The company takes assurance policies to cover from adverse events during
transportation.
Affectation of the rivers hydrology levels, which

Strengthening of maintenance plans of watersheds that supply water to the generation
OPERATIONAL supply water flows for generation assets. Natural
plants.
phenomena associated with climate change.
Physical affecation of employees or company
OPERATIONAL properties , during the operation process or
projects development.
Required compliance of regulatory provisions of occupational health and industrial

safety, particulary for work at heights, confined locations and heavy machinery
operations.
Accelerated deterioration or obsolescence of

OPERATIONAL
operating assets.
Pemanently inversions in preventative maintenance programs, equipment

modernization, and finally, electrical and physical safeguards which ensure asset
durability oand the continuity of the operation
OPERATIONAL
To ensure risk management there is an risks area which applies a generally accepted
Not identifying or deal with issues that could affect
methodology. It ensures the identficatoin and treatment of possible risks which could
the achievement of organizational aims
affect organizational aims compliance.
OPERATIONAL Non compliance with reliability charges

OPERATIONAL
Affectation of organizational structure due to the

labor body breakdown
OPERATIONAL Human mistakes in electric assets operation

OPERATIONAL
LEGAL
OPERATIONAL
OPERATIONAL
Natural Disasters
Delay in achieving environmental licenses
Expiry of supply contracts
Delinquency / Terrorism
MARKET
Energy exchange prices volatility
OPERATIONAL Gas price volatility
Infrastructure strengthening, which is required to operate with different fuels, ensuring

through excellent maintenance schedule, the availability of assets
Development of management strategic plan of laboral life, aimed on give continuity to
the business. Identification of possible successors for company's critical positions.
Preservation
of knowledege.
Plant
operators
certification and training, which contributes to the ordely and controlled
development of certified activities. (Certification by the ICONTEC in the power plants
activities of operation and maintenance)
N/A
Rigorous monitoring and timely compliance dates of the program.
N/A
Tangible assets assurance
N/A
N/A
Appendix 31. Risks Matrix

Risks estimations were done based on management reports, where the studies and impact measurements are reported.
Likewise CEL.CN value sensibilities were estimated according to risk materialization, scenarios from financial data reported,
which shows the major change drivers of CEL.CN valuation.
Base on these estimates we show in the following matrix the results classified by the impact level and occurrence probability.
HIGH
LEGAL
REGULATORY
MARKET
OR5 Delay and

costs in building
projects
MEDIUM
OR6 Breach of
Firm Energy
Obligations
LR Delay in
achieving
environmental
licenses
OR2 High fuel

costs
OR3 Low levels of

hydrology
RR Changes in
Colombian
regulation of the
sector
MR Unfavorable
market conditions
LOW
IMPACT
OPERATIONAL
OR1 Fortuitous
events
OR4 Delayed meet

demand
LOW
MEDIUM
PROBABILITY
HIGH
Appendix 32. CEL.CNs Sensibility

We analyzed the target price sensibility to external and internal operational factors changes.
Long-term growth
rate
The Discounted Free Cash Flow to Firm valuation method is highly affected by the perpetual WACC rate and perpetual
growth rate.
7131,8255 10,50%
4,00% 11.272,35
3,50% 10.473,03
3,00% 9.808,61
2,80% 9.573,15
2,00% 8.766,76
1,00% 7.986,35
0,00% 7.379,37
11,00%
9.598,90
9.052,15
8.583,91
8.414,88
7.823,38
7.231,80
6.758,19
WACC (residual)
11,50%
12,10%
12,50%
8.417,41
7.325,41
6.860,26
8.020,82
7.046,19
6.624,66
7.673,86
6.797,08
6.412,74
7.546,92
6.704,80
6.333,82
7.095,53
6.371,58
6.046,97
6.632,64
6.021,48
5.742,40
6.253,63
5.728,35
5.484,84
13,00%
6.320,32
6.130,52
5.958,22
5.893,66
5.657,24
5.403,12
5.185,70
13,50%
5.880,62
5.724,25
5.581,28
5.527,46
5.329,16
5.113,91
4.927,98
Optimization of
process
External factors as price fluctuations in energy exchange and internal factors as the optimal MEGA plan execution, which
allows reducing operative costs.
13,00%
12,00%
11,00%
9,68%
9,00%
8,00%
7,00%
-3,00%
8.386,96
8.138,64
7.890,31
7.563,14
6.648,69
5.655,39
4.662,09
Change in forecast price in energy exchange in years 2015-2017

0,00%
3,00%
6,19%
9,00%
12,00%
8.094,42
7.805,45
7.452,56
7.238,20
6.959,90
7.853,27
7.571,39
7.227,16
7.018,07
6.746,61
7.612,12
7.337,33
7.001,77
6.797,94
6.533,31
7.294,40
7.028,95
6.704,80
6.507,91
6.252,30
6.406,36
6.167,02
5.874,78
5.697,27
5.441,76
5.441,76
5.230,78
4.973,18
4.816,74
4.613,67
4.477,16
4.294,53
4.071,59
3.936,21
4.477,16
15,00%
6.685,15
6.478,61
6.272,07
5.999,95
5.239,38
4.413,23
3.587,08
Appendix 33. Worlds Generation Portfolio
Source: CEL.CNs Reports
Appendix 34. ARG.CN Holding Structure
Source: ARG.CNs Reports
Appendix 35. DuPont Analysis.
Appendix 36. References

i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
ix.
x.
xi.
xii.
xiii.
xiv.
xv.
xvi.
xvii.
xviii.
xix.
xx.
xxi.
xxii.
xxiii.
xxiv.
xxv.
xxvi.
xxvii.
xxviii.
xxix.
xxx.
xxxi.
xxxii.
xxxiii.
xxxiv.
xxxv.
xxxvi.
xxxvii.
xxxviii.
xxxix.
xl.
(Observatoire Mediterranen de l'Energie, 2007)

(IMF, IMF World Economic Outlook 2014- Chapter 2, 2014)
(FIIC, 2014)
(Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2013)
(CEPAL, 2014)
(Inter-American Development Bank, 2008)
(BVC, 2013)
(Compact, The CEO Water Mandate, 2007)
(Compact, Boletn del Pacto Mundial de las Naciones Unidas, 2012)
(Banco de la Repblica-Colombia, 2014)
(IMF, World Economic Outlook - Update, 2014)
(Crdenas, 2014)
(BBVA-Research, 2014)
(World Bank Group, 2014)
(De Lima, 2014)
(EKN-Creating Confidence in your Exports, 2014)
(CRHOY-Noticias, 2014)
(Villar, 2014)
(Direccin General de Poltica Macroeconmica, 2014)
(UPME, Plan de Expansin de Referencia: Generacin-Transmisin 2014-2028, 2014)
(Crdenas, 2014)
(BBVA-Research, 2014)
(Ultraburstiles, 2014)
Ibit
(DANE, 2013)
(UPME, Sistema de Informacin electrico colombiano, 2013)
(OECD, 2013)
(Portafolio, 2014)
(Colombian Congress, 1994)
(Ministerio de Minas y Energia, 2013)
(Regulacin Sector Elctrico, 2012)
(DANE, 2013)
(UPME, Sistema de Informacin electrico colombiano, 2013)
(XM, 2014)
(Fedesarrollo, 2013)
(UPME, Proyecciones de la demanda de energa en Colombia, ltima revisin a julio de 2014, 2014)
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De Lima, F. (2014). Panama:Beyond the Canal. Panama City.
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Appendix 1.

Expenses paid in advance

TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS

Deferred, net charges

Assets acquired under finance leases, leasing

TOTAL NON-CURRENT ASSETS

Property, plant and equipment, net

Valuations and devaluations, net

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS 'EQUITY

Estimated liabilities and provisions

TOTAL NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS 'EQUITY

Source: Team Estimates. CEL.CNs Reports.

Cost of Revenue, Total

Labor & Related Expense

Impairment-Assets Held for Use

Impairment-Assets Held for Sale

Other Unusual Expense (Income)

Amortization of Acquisition Costs

Total Operating Expense

Interest Expense, Net Non-Operating

Interest Expense - Non-Operating

Interest/Invest Income - Non-Operating

Interest Income - Non-Operating

Net Income Before Extra. Items

Taxes- Net Income Before Taxes Relation

Source: Team Estimates. CEL.CNs Reports.

Properties, Plans and Equipment

Operating taxes Payable

Net Operating Assets N.O.A

Source: Team Estimates. CEL.CNs Reports.

Paying and Subscribed Capital

Source: Team Estimates. CEL.CNs Reports.

LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS 'EQUITY

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS 'EQUITY

Source: Team Estimates. CEL.CNs Reports.

Cost of Revenue, Total

Labor & Related Expense

Amortization of Acquisition Costs

Impairment-Assets Held for Use

Impairment-Assets Held for Sale

Other Unusual Expense (Income)

Total Operating Expense

Selling/General/Admin. Expenses, Total

Unusual Expense (Income)

Interest Expense - Non-Operating

Interest/Invest Income - Non-Operating

Interest Income - Non-Operating

Investment Income - Non-Operating

Interest Income(Exp), Net Non-Operating

Interest Inc.(Exp.),Net-Non-Op., Total

Net Income Before Extra. Items

Provision for Income Taxes

Source: Team Estimates. CEL.CNs Reports.

$ 360,24 $ 212,35 $ 320,50 $ 518,95 $ 596,53 $ 951,32 $ 979,48 $ 1.024,24

Source: Team Estimates. CEL.CNs Reports.

Appendix 8. Residual Income Model.

Source: Team Estimates.

Appendix 9. DCF Model.

Operational FCF Vpn

Source: Team Estimates.

Appendix 10. Relative Price Value.

CEL.CN Actual Price

Net Income 2014F