DeforestationDriverAnalysis

toAssistwithProjectBaselinesand
LeakageCalculations

WhatisasystemofDeforestationandhowdoes
theunderstandingofthesysteminfluencea
projectbaseline?
Eslainteraccindefactoresespacializablesynoespacializables
de forma directa e indirecta que permiten describir los
procesosdedeforestacinactualyfuturaenunreaespecfica
(FDN,2010).
An Avoided Deforestation project must incorporate these
conceptsintoitsbaselineinordertodefineit.
MexicosNationalDeforestationRiskModeladdressedmanyof
these issues and the CAR Workgroup is considering how it can
be used to develop a standardized baseline for Avoided
DeforestationProjects.Thiswillrequireadditionalsteps.

NeedforDeforestation
DriverAnalysis

INEsDeforestationRiskModel
designedtoproduceestimatesat
anationallevel
Useofthemodelatthelocal
(project)levelwillrequirea
soundanalysisofwhichlocal
spatialvariablesareneeded

Modelof
DeforestationRisk
NeedforAnalysisofDeforestationDrivers
atLocalizedAreatocalibratedeforestation
modelandimproveleakageestimates

?
ResultsofModelat
ProjectScale

Examples

Step1 IdentifyAllPossibleDriversof
DeforestationinMexico

Sector

NameofDriver
Traditionalshiftingcultivation
Shiftingcultivationbycolonists
Permanentsubsistencecultivation

Step1a:IdentifyandDescribe
RelationshipsandSequences

Permanentcommercialcultivation(palm,avocado,rubber,...)
Agricultural
Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopmentprojects
expansion
Smallholdercattleranching
Largescalecattleranching
Spontaneoustransmigration
Localtransmigration(resettlement)
Staterunwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Growthcoalitionledwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Illegal(illicit,undeclared)woodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Wood
extraction

Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Fuelwoodextractionfordomesticuse
Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse
Polewoodextractionfordomesticuse
Polewoodextractionforindustrialuse
Charcoalproductionfordomesticuse
Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse
Expansionoftransportinfrastructure
Expansionofmarketinfrastructure(foodmarkets,storage,etc.)
Expansionofprivateinfrastructure(sawmills,foodmarkets,etc.)

Step1b:Developasurvey
methodologytoidentifyhow
thesedriverscanbeidentified
withindefinedgeographicareas
(states/projectsforexample)

Infrastructure Expansionofpublicservices(e.g.,water&sanitationfacilities)
extension (Semi)urbansettlementexpansion
Ruralsettlementexpansion
Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages
Privateenterpriseinfrastructure hydropowerdevelopment

DevelopinganADProjectBaselineandAssigningLeakageValues

Step2 DefinetheGeographicBoundaryinWhich
theProjectOperates

Thegeographicboundaryformsthecontextfordefiningthe
projectsbaselineandleakagemonitoring.
Forsimplicity,thiscouldbeacoincidentwithstate
boundariesduetojurisdictionalissues.However,maybe
combinedstateswhereecosystems,economies,forestpolicies,
andhighriskofleakageareshared.

Step3 UsingtheProductofStep1,Identifythe
SuiteofDeforestationDriversWithinDefined
Boundary
Examples
Sector

NameofDriver
Traditionalshiftingcultivation
Shiftingcultivationbycolonists
Permanentsubsistencecultivation

Permanentcommercialcultivation(palm,avocado,rubber,...)
Agricultural
Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopmentprojects
expansion
Smallholdercattleranching
Largescalecattleranching
Spontaneoustransmigration
Localtransmigration(resettlement)
Staterunwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Growthcoalitionledwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Illegal(illicit,undeclared)woodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Wood
extraction

Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)

DeforestationDrivers
WithinJurisdictionX

Fuelwoodextractionfordomesticuse
Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse
Polewoodextractionfordomesticuse
Polewoodextractionforindustrialuse

Sector
Traditionalshiftingcultivation

Charcoalproductionfordomesticuse
Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse
Expansionoftransportinfrastructure

Agricultural Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopmentprojects
expansion Spontaneoustransmigration
Localtransmigration(resettlement)

Expansionofmarketinfrastructure(foodmarkets,storage,etc.)
Expansionofprivateinfrastructure(sawmills,foodmarkets,etc.)
Infrastructure Expansionofpublicservices(e.g.,water&sanitationfacilities)
extension (Semi)urbansettlementexpansion
Ruralsettlementexpansion
Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages
Privateenterpriseinfrastructure hydropowerdevelopment

NameofDriver

Wood
extraction

Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selectiveharvesting)
Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse

Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse
Infrastructure
extension Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages

Step4 Identify/DevelopDatatoQuantifythe
RelativeContributionofEachofthePotential
DriversWithintheJurisdiction
Ifnodataexists,asurveymustbedevelopedand
implementedtoquantifythecontributions
Example
Sector

NameofDriver

Traditionalshiftingcultivation
Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopment
Agricultural projects
expansion
Spontaneoustransmigration

Woodextraction

AvailableData(example)
FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008
FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008
CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008

Localtransmigration(resettlement)
Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selective
harvesting)

CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2009

Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse

CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008

Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse

FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008

Infrastructure
extension
Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages

FAO1989,SEMARNAT2008

CONAFOR2010,SEMARNAT2008

Step5 QuantifytheRelativeContributionofEach
ofthePotentialDriversWithintheJurisdiction
Performcausalanalysisofdeforestationdrivers:
Toassistinidentifyingdeforestationsequencing
Example
Sector

NameofDriver

Traditionalshiftingcultivation
Permanentcultivationforagriculturalruraldevelopment
Agricultural projects
expansion
Spontaneoustransmigration

Woodextraction

Infrastructure
extension

RelativeContributionofDrivertoArea
Deforested
5%
5%
15%

Localtransmigration(resettlement)
Commercialwoodextraction(clearcutting,selective
harvesting)

45%

Fuelwoodextractionforindustrialuse

3%

Charcoalproductionforindustrialuse

2%

Expansionofmilitarydefensevillages

5%

20%

Step5 QuantifytheRelativeContributionofEach
ofthePotentialDriversWithintheJurisdiction
Performcausalanalysisofdeforestationdrivers:
Toassistinidentifyingrelationshipsofdriversandsequencing

Describeeachdriverintermsof:
Whoisdoingthedeforestation.
Whytheyaredoingthedeforestation.
Wherearetheydoingthedeforestation.
Forwhomaretheydoingthe
deforestation.
Spatialscaleofdriver.
Directandindirectimpactsofdriver.
Potentialforleakage.
Prevention/mitigationopportunitiesfor
driver.

Identifytheleakagepotentialofeachdriver

Step6 AnalyzetheSpatialRestrictionsand
MobilityofEachoftheDrivers

Step7 IdentifyHowtheProjectAddresses
DeforestationDrivers
Combinedwiththeleakageanalysis,aleakageriskforeach
projectcanbeassigned.

Step8 WithSpatialDriversIdentified,Local
VariablescanbeUsedtoCalibrateINEs
DeforestationRiskWithintheGeographic
BoundaryandExtrapolatedtotheProjectLevelas
aPredictorofDeforestationRatesIntotheFuture