Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2014 2015
Cuprins:
- Introducere concepte, relevanta subiectului
- Simptome ale instabilitatii. Metode de analiza pentru
mediul intern/extern pentru o entitate economica
Evaluari ale competitivitatii macro.
Romania in strategia Europa 2020
- Teme de discutie:
Banca Mondiala 3I
(des)Crestere economica
Competitivitate
Criza
(Dez)Echilibru
Hazard
Incertitudine
Perturbatii
Predictabilitate/impredictabilitate
Risc
Variabilitate
Volatilitate
Vulnerabilitate
Exemplu: oscilatiile cursului de schimb valutar ptr. Romania. Stabilitatea cursului de schimb este unul dintre criteriile de la
Maastricht, de a caror indeplinire depinde adoptarea monedei europene de catre oricare stat membru al UE. Romania are ca
obiectiv intrarea in zona euro in 2014. Potrivit criteriilor de la Maastricht, moneda nationala poate fluctua intr-o banda de
variatie de plus/minus 15%, variatie care reprezinta aprecierea sau deprecierea procentuala maxima fata de media ultimilor
doi ani.
Incertitudinea genereaz volatilitate de ex., evoluia indicelui BET-FI . Piaa de capital are, prin definiie, un caracter
mai volatil dect alte piee (cea de mrfuri)
media europeana
- aparitia unor noi legi legea Moore, legea randamentelor in crestere pentru resursa informationala
Legea Moore - 1965, revista Electronics Magazine a publicat o lucrare a lui G. Moore, in care acesta observa ca numarul de circuite integrate se va
dubla in fiecare an, proces ce va fi insotit de o reducere pe masura a preturilor. Cunoscuta sub denumirea de "Legea lui Moore", aceasta observatie
a stat la baza unei dezvoltari extraordinare a tehnologiei in intreaga lume. Moore si-a revizuit observatia in 1975, pentru a adauga faptul ca
numarul tranzistorilor inclusi intr-un circuit integrat se dubleaza la aproximativ doi ani. Se poate spune ca "Legea lui Moore" a constituit baza pe
care au fost create microprocesoare de catre o industrie a semiconductorilor in plin avant. Aceste "creiere ale computerelor", alaturi de alte tipuri
de circuite integrate, au facut posibila aparitia si dezvoltarea PC-ului, a Internetului, a telefoanelor mobile si a jocurilor video. Impact economic. In
afara acestei observatii cu privire la cresterea complexitatii circuitelor integrate, "Legea lui Moore" sugereaza si o scadere a costurilor. Pe masura
ce componentele pe baza de siliciu castiga in performanta, pretul lor de productie scade. Microprocesoarele din ziua de azi conduc totul, de la
jucarii la schimbarea luminilor semaforului. O carte postala muzicala in valoare de doar cativa dolari contine un microprocesor mai puternic decat
cele mai rapide calculatoare mainframe produse cu cateva zeci de ani in urma.
Metode de analiz
Analiza SWOT (Strenght, Weakness, Opportunity,
Threat)
Analiza SPIN (Situation, Problem, Implication,
Need Pay Off)
Analiza STEEP (Social, Technological, Economical,
Environmental and Political)
Analiza de impact CIA (Cross-impact analysis),
TIA (Trend impact analysis)
Metode de tip analiz a eficienei/eficacitii (analiza
cost-beneficiu, analiza risc-beneficiu, analiza costutilitate etc.)
AIMI 2014 - 2015
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Pentru cele cinci obiective propuse de CE in noua strategie, optiunile Romaniei pot fi schitate astfel:
Rata de ocupare a populatiei cu varsta intre 20 si 64 de ani minimum 75 %. In stabilirea obiectivelor
complementare, tinerii trebuie vizati atat din perspectiva participarii lor la educatie si formare, cat si din perspectiva
evitarii riscului de excluziune sociala.
Nivelul investitiilor in cercetare si dezvoltare 3% din PIB-ul UE. Mentinerea pentru 2020 a obiectivului de
3% ar putea fi realista pentru unele SM, dar pentru Romania va reprezenta o serioasa provocare, chiar presiune, cu
atat mai mult cu cat obiectivele fixate in contextul strategiei Europa 2020 sunt interconectate. In cazul Romaniei, la
constrangerile de natura bugetara si financiara se adauga dificultatile generate de o slaba capacitate de absorbtie a
fondurilor in domeniul cercetarii si dezvoltarii (atat cele de la bugetul de stat, conform Planului national de cercetare
dezvoltare si inovare, cat si din sursele comunitare).
Atingerea obiectivului 20/20/20 (sau 30/20/20, in cazul respectarii anumitor conditii) referitor la schimbarile
climatice si energie. Romania nu intrevede dificultati in atingerea obiectivului de 20% aferent surselor regenerabile de
energie (RES) si considera ca potentialul national, sistemul de promovare al RES si aplicarea prevederilor Directivei
2009/28/CE vor avea contributii importante in acest sens. In ceea ce priveste eficienta energetica, obiectivul de 20%
este indicativ si este importanta analizarea oportunitatii stabilirii de obiective obligatorii. Romania are in vedere
necesitatea mentinerii perspective de crestere a consumului de energie pentru relansarea economica scontata.
Referitor la emisiile de gaze cu efect de sera, Romania considera fundamentala respectarea deciziei Consiliului
European din decembrie 2009 privind efectuarea de catre COM a evaluarii compatibilitatii obiectivelor asumate de
tarile terte, pentru a asigura un level playing field global pentru standardele de mediu. Numai in baza acestei
evaluari poate fi avuta in vedere posibilitatea modificarii angajamentului UE de reducere a emisiilor de gaze cu efect
de sera cu 30 % pana in 2020.
Rata abandonului scolar timpuriu situatia nationala actual nu este de natura sa sustina un obiectiv national
prea ambitios dar, prin intensificarea eforturilor de coordonare a politicilor educationale cu cele sociale, este posibila
scaderea semnificativa a acestui indicator.
Reducerea cu 20 de milioane a cetatenilor europeni amenintati de saracie. Realizarea acestui obiectiv este
dificila chiar la nivelul UE, avand in vedere conditiile economice specific SM.
Asadar, Romania impartaseste abordarea COM cu privire la modul in care se pot asigura perspective mai bune pentru
economia UE si sustine asigurarea convergentei eforturilor comunitare si ale SM in efortul comun de a-si depasi
actual criza si de a define un cadru de consolidare aAIMI
competitivitatii
2014 - 2015 europene pentru urmatorul deceniu.
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EU 27
Europe 2020 a strategy for jobs and
smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth, is based on five EU
headline targets which are
currently measured by eight
headline indicators.
Sursa:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/port
al/page/portal/europe_2020_indicato
rs/headline_indicators
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Romania
2014
14
Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala de
Prognoza
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Sursa: Proiecia principalilor indicatori economico sociali n PROFIL TERITORIAL pn n 2016, Comisia Nationala de
Prognoza
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117
100
111
111
92
84
77
80
68
63
60
56
57
59
53
40
20
18
20
21
22
24
23
25
26
29
30
2008
2009
29
0
2000
2001
Nord-Vest
2002
Centru
2003
Nord-Est
2004
Sud-Est
2005
Sud-Muntenia
2006
2007
Bucuresti-Ilfov
Sud-VestOltenia
2010
Vest
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Rapoartele de competitivitate
Evaluarea economiei bazate pe cunoastere in viziunea Bancii Mondiale Knowledge Assessment methodology - KAM:
www.worldbank.org/wbi/knowledgefordevelopment
www.worldbank.org/kam
The Knowledge Economy, the KAM Methodology and World Bank Operations,
Derek H. C. Chen, Carl J. Dahlman, The World Bank, Washington DC 20433, October
19, 2005
Source: Measuring knowledge in the worlds economies, Knowledge Assessment
Methodology and Knowledge Economy Index
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Competitiveness is defined as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level
of productivity of a country;
Productivity of an economy - is measured by the value of goods and services produced per unit of
the nations human, capital, and natural resources. Productivity depends both on the value of a
nations products and services, measured by the prices they can command in open markets, and
the efficiency with which they can be produced.
The level of productivity
- sets the sustainable level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy; more competitive
economies tend to be able to produce higher levels of income for their citizens.
- determines the rates of return obtained by investments in an economy.
Wealth is actually created by the productivity with which a nation can utilize its human, capital,
and natural resources to produce goods and services. Productivity ultimately depends on the
microeconomic capability of the economy, rooted in the sophistication of companies (both local
and subsidiaries of multinationals), the quality of the national business environment, and the
externalities arising from the presence of clusters of related and supporting industries.
Unless microeconomic capabilities improve, sustainable improvements in prosperity will not occur.
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Definitie - concepte
Competitivitatea
-
se definete ca acel set de instituii, politici i factori care determin nivelul prezent de
productivitate al unei tri.
- Este capacitatea unei firme, companii regiuni sau economii nationale de a isi pastra sau
ameliora pozitia in raport cu concurenta altor entitati comparabile; este cel mai des vazuta
din perspectiva unei natiuni si este asociata concurentei internationale => capacitatea unei
natiuni de a produce bunuri si servicii care fac fata testului concurentei pe pietele
internationale si de a spori simultan si in mod durabil nivelul de trai al populatiei
- determin att nivelul de bunstare al unei economii la un moment dat, ct i potenialul de
cretere a acesteia in viitor.
Literatura i practica economic au evideniat faptul c dezvoltarea unei economii bazate pe
cunoatere reprezint unul dintre factorii cheie ai creterii competitivitii unei economii.
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30/10/2014
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Romania
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The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook can be described as a mapping process that helps countries
benchmark their competitiveness by mobilizing such resources.
a) Companies focus on sustained profitability, which is the ability to generate an appropriate return on capital over a
long period of time. This concept is well-covered by economic analysis and is explained by the field of
competitive strategy.
b) Nations thrive on prosperity, a concept that we define as economic growth plus something else that is less
economic and measurable. The latter goal evolves with the economic and social development of a country: a
poorer nation may emphasize access to food and shelter for its population, a more advanced economy may
give priority to environmental protection or education. In both cases however, economic growth remains a
prerequisite, a condition that is necessary but not sufficient.
c) Individuals are motivated by increases in their standard of living and probably by something more ideological such
as the pursuit of happiness as described in the US Declaration of Independence (1776). Several models
attempt to include such concepts in economic analysis (for example, the Commission on the Measurement of
Economic Performance and Social Progress sponsored by the French state and which includes Nobel laureates
Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen.)
30/10/2014
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30/10/2014
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Tema de discutie:
The Competitiveness Roadmap is an attempt to describe and assess the main issues that will affect the world
competitiveness landscape over the next four decades. Issues are shown along two axes - degree of impact and
timescale - to provide a clear mental map of the environment in which nations and companies will operate.
Exemple:
1. Budget deficits remain high Despite austerity plans, budget deficits remain high: Country estimates for 2013
range from -9% of the GDP in Japan, to -5.4% in the US and -2.8% in the Euro area. Unpopular spending cuts
will prevail and not only in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy slowing down economic recovery everywhere.
2. The economy is desynchronized Globalization is still there but the world economy is increasingly fragmented:
some nations continue to struggle with recession e.g. Greece, Portugal others confront robust growth such
as China. Some countries suffer deflation Japan and Switzerland others are threatened by inflation, such as
India, Russia and Turkey.
3. Unemployment becomes massive 25 million people lose their jobs in the OECD region and the average jobless
rate hits 7.7% in the US and 11.9% in Europe. Youth unemployment reaches record highs, above 23% in Europe
and a staggering 52% in Spain.
4. Interest rates remain low Central Banks continue to flood the market with cheap money. Some institutions,
such as the U.S. Fed, include employment levels as a target. Stock exchanges become more attractive for
higher returns.
5. Inflation is back but not everywhere The economic recovery is expected to trigger a rise in commodity prices
and demand. Excess liquidities inherited from the recession could flood the markets. Some governments even
welcome a bit of inflation to boost private consumption and reduce the nominal value of the debt.
6. High volatility of currencies The dollar remains weak and is continually tested by financial markets. The Euro
stabilizes around 1.35 to the dollar as emerging markets cautiously buy Euro bonds to diversify their holdings.
The Chinese Yuan appreciates gradually as the government wants to develop domestic demand.
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Tema de discutie
KAM Banca Mondiala
The KAM consists of 148 structural and qualitative variables for 146
countries to measure their performance on the 4 Knowledge Economy
(KE) pillars: Economic Incentive and Institutional Regime, Education,
Innovation, and Information and Communications Technologies.
Variables are normalized on a scale of 0 to 10 relative to other countries in
the comparison group. The KAM also derives a countrys overall
Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) and Knowledge Index (KI).
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Valori normalizate
1995
87.6
9.3
79
9.38
0.62
6.92
-0.23
2.94
Legislatie, 2009
0.1
5.96
0.01
5.56
24.76
6.4
0.48
3.56
58.12
6.41
29.89
0.45
5.62
0.1
5.1
10.37
7.72
9.61
8.35
93.5
6.55
77.9
6.25
67.07
8.37
18.29
5.31
1,430,00
6.62
130
5.72
190
6.1
10
5.32
360
5.86
7.45
47
6.62
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6.92
Legislatie, 2009
5.96
6.4
6.41
5.62
6.55
2012
1995
AIMI
2014 - 2015
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1995
Albania
4.53
4.33
Uzbekistan
3.14
4.78
Australia
8.88
9.27
Barbados
7.18
6.87
Benin
1.88
2.83
Bulgaria
6.8
6.81
China
4.37
3.99
El Salvador
4.17
4.26
Estonia
8.4
7.94
France
8.21
8.67
Kuwait
5.33
5.71
Lesotho
1.95
3.11
United States
8.77
9.53
Mongolia
4.42
4.08
Myanmar
0.96
2.23
Romania
6.82
5.91
Russian Federation
5.78
5.67
Slovak Republic
7.64
7.22
Sweden
9.43
9.45
49
KEI in dinamica
KEI 2012
10
Estonia
7,94; 8,4
9
8
RO 5,91; 6,82
y = 1.0781x - 0.6923
R 2 = 0.9438
7
6
5
4
Uzbekistan
4,78; 3,14
3
2
1
0
0
KEI 1995
10
12
50
5.34
6.37
6.3
10
97.68
8
7
5.76
6
4.68
5
4
3
2
1
0
9.3
3.28
4.51
4.86
4.35
5.96
5.15
4.04
6.92
Regulatory Quality, 2009
5.39
7.52
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52
53