Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Black Warrior
A Buffalo Soldier
Looks Back
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PRICING
For PositionUSA
57096,
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a ComNortheast
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mercial Large
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or ACAS
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Reactuarial
analysts.
Requires
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two years
of experience.
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proquires at least
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gramming
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For Position 57923,
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casualtyan
actuarial
Expanding
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Accident
and
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is seeking
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ary. This Fellow of the Society of Actuaries must have at least five years of
as capital modeling skills.
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NORTHEAST USA - REINSURANCE FCAS
NORTHEAST
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For Position 57838, this Northeast USA employer has asked Ezra Penland, the
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York insurer isAND
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seeking
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FCASUSA
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Requires
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ary.
This Fellow
of the
Society of Actuaries must have at least five years of
and casualty
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Accident and Health experience.
WISCONSIN - PREDICTIVE MODELING ACTUARY
For Position 57873,
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actuary is immediately sought by a
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and
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R proactuarial
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gramming skills ideal. Pricing, database programming, statistical modeling
and
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SOUTHEAST
USA - LIFE APPOINTED ACTUARY
For Position 57742, this Southeast USA client is searching for a life reinsurance
NORTHEAST
FSA ACCIDENT AND HEALTH
Expanding Northeast USA Accident and Health insurer is seeking an actuexperience ideal.
ary. This Fellow of the Society of Actuaries must have at least five years of
Accident
and Health
USA - CHIEF
LIFE experience.
PRICING ACTUARY
For Position 57694, our USA client is seeking a Life FSA with 12+ years of experi-
NORTHEAST
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ANALYST
ence. High-profilelife
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role. COLI/BOLI experience a plus.
actuarial modelingassignments.
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Contents
22
Features
COVER: KEN CECCUCCI / BONOTOM STUDIO
Black Warrior
32
Drilling Down
Where you live, your gender, race, and educational level, and who you work for are all
predictive of whether you will participate in an employer-sponsored pension plan.
By Craig Copeland
42
48
Revitalizing
Reinsurance Capacity
2 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
IMAGINE:
CONFIDENCE IN
THE NUMBERS.
VOL 26 | NO 3
Departments
INSIDE TRACK
The First Step
Published by
Linda Mallon
PRESIDENTS MESSAGE
Public ConfidenceWhat Does It Take?
LETTERS
COMMENTARY
Personal ERM
10
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
14
DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS
Patrick Collins
UP TO CODE
Owning Precept 13
WORKSHOP
Life in the Fast LaneProxy
Techniques and Risk-Based
Decisions
Mary Downs
Charity Sack
EDITOR AND ASSISTANT DIRECTOR FOR PUBLICATIONS
Linda Mallon
18
Cindy Johns
John Purple
SPECIAL SECTION
2014 Software Showcase
PRESIDENT
Tom Terry
Tom Terry
ADVERTISING
54
58
Thomas L. Bakos
Sam Gutterman
Robert J. Rietz
Lenny Shteyman
Tom Toce
Brian R o binson
TRADECRAFT
Best Practices in Insurance Financial Modeling
60
62
Tom To ce
BRIDGE PUZZLE
Leading Trumps
64
E dith M cMu l l in
PUZZLES
Passover Special
66
Robert J. Rietz
www.contingencies.org
Lenny Shtey
man
Bob, can
we chat for a minute?
END PAPER
Mortality
Russ B ingham
CRYPTIC PUZZLE
Silver Screen
68
4 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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Inside Track
LINDA MALLON
THINKSTOCK
an Extraordinary Life
Its no surprise, then,
(q4el.wordpress.com).
that I spent many moments
We all have the stuff of epic journeys within us,
Launching the blog, Colduring this past cold, prowhether its rowing an ocean or simply filling a
lins told me, was way
tracted winter following
out of his comfort zone.
the adventures of Canadian
blank computer screen with words.
While he has no fear of
actuary Jean-Guy Sauriol
All we need to do is take that first step.
public speaking, writas he rowed solo across the
ing felt more exposed.
vast expanse of the Atlantic
And he didnt feel that
Ocean. Departing from the
it came naturally to him
Canary Islands on Nov. 24,
(you wouldnt know that
2013, Sauriol rowed 2,600
to read his writing, but
nautical miles, landing in
then all the artistryand
Barbados, 74 days and three
all the hard workcomes
hours later, on Feb. 6, 2014.
in making it look easy).
As he recounts in his
I remember running
compelling account of the
the marathon, thinking to myself that if I ever wanted to finish
trip, which begins on Page 42, Sauriol would get up every morna 26-mile run, I needed to start by finishing the first mile, Coling, check the weather and waves, grab a bite, and hit the oars.
lins said. Therefore, if I ever wanted to get better at writing by
Every morning during that same time, I would get up, curse
putting in my 10,000 hours, I needed to start with my first few.
the weather, grab a bite, and pull up Sauriols website, www.
Beyond the satisfaction of taking on a challenge, other benmaplelyssolo.com, to check his progress and silently cheer him on.
efits accrue from pushing your personal envelope. Ivan Houston,
While a solo crossing is not the way Id choose to celebrate
whose memoir begins on Page 22, spent several years out of his
my 60th birthday (one of the proximate causes for Sauriols
comfort zone at the behest of Uncle Sam. Yet Houston credits
grand adventure), I greatly admire his willingness to embrace
his combat experiences as a Buffalo Soldier fighting in Italy for
risk and to challenge himself both physically and mentally. I also
giving him the confidence to pursue a long and successful career
like how Sauriol completely explodes the common mispercepas a businessman in later years.
tion of actuaries as, dare I say it, slightly boring bean-counters.
I learned much about people, about suffering, about being
Over the course of my time at the Academy, Ive come to
happy, and about being proud of accomplishments in the face
know quite a few actuaries whose interest in acquiring unfamilof tremendous odds, Houston said. You learn there is always
iar skills, stretching themselves beyond comfortable boundaries,
a way of attaining your goal.
and, occasionally, working without a net as they do this belies
We all have the stuff of epic journeys within us, whether its
the stereotype.
rowing an ocean or simply filling a blank computer screen with
Take Patrick Collins. His excellent commentary on Page 14 is
words. All we need to do is take that first step.
adapted from a posting that appeared on his blog, A Quest for
6 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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Presidents Message
TOM TERRY
8 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
taxpayers, are confronted daily with headlines blasting messages about the dire financial condition of these plans.
Restoring public confidence in public plans is the responsibility of many. Most important, plan sponsors must be willing to
make the appropriate funding contributions. Period.
As a profession with a public responsibility, we actuaries also
must be willing to do our part.
Taking stock, Id say we have been, but theres more to do.
Our standards of practice steer us toward appropriate actuarial practice. The Actuarial Standards Board (ASB) has been
extraordinarily busy in the past several years strengthening our
standards as they apply to pension practice. I applaud the ASB
for its hard work and for its progress.
But again, theres more to do. It relates very much to public
confidence. Or in this case, the extraordinary attention and concern related to public-sector plans.
A substantial number of states and municipalities face considerable fiscal challengesand pensions are almost always
at or near the top of the list of identified problems. Theres an
unprecedented level of interest and concern among the citizentaxpayers of these jurisdictions who, until recently, never paid
much attention to pensions. All that has changed.
As the result of this heightened interest, it has become apparent that these plans have roughly 10 million plan beneficiaries
and are supported by taxpayers in every state and in most local
jurisdictions. This just adds to the dimensions of a public confidence hurdle that is already high. We need to respond. And now.
The good news is that our profession cares and is engaged. I
believe actuaries have a significant commitment to closing this
public confidence gap.
While we will never be able to mandate that government
plan sponsors supply the robust funding needed to sustain these
plans, we can make a difference. How? Its simpleby providing
relevant and consistent information. Information thats needed
by plan sponsors, for sure. Butand this is the keyinformation
that the public wants and deserves.
The first step is to pull the best ideas from the good work of
so many across our profession and fold them into the next round
of enhancements to our practice standards. Our standards can
be the vehicle for helping restore public confidence. Thus far,
we as a profession have been reluctant to directionally focus a
practice standard only on public pension plan practice. Its time
to get beyond that reluctance.
Lets take this essential next step to respond to this essential
need.
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Letters
A Changeable Compact
1 0 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
Actuaries Needed
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Letters C O N T I N U ED
there is a unique financial plan. Many financial planners are unable to distinguish between a variable and a parameter. Factors
that are really parameters but with uncertain values often are
treated as variables. In retirement planning, clients ask: How
much to save? Annual savings is clearly a variable. Because
income = spending + savings, and income is of a known value,
spending is also a variable. But typical planning approaches ask
the clients if they would like to have their current lifestyle in
retirement, i.e., treating spending as a parameter.
As a result, most planning outcome is of questionable value. Mixing up variables and parameters makes it impossible to
conduct sensitivity analysis. Many types of planning software
include Monte Carlo simulation to assess the risk of running out
of funds. Given a questionable base plan, the simulation could
produce a false sense of security for clients.
After 26 years in the field as a life insurance agent, I am hoping the life actuaries will spend some time looking into the basic
approach to the financial planning process, and come up with
life insurance products that better fit the income-replacement
needs of our customers.
But this is strictly my personal opinion.
David Hu
Los Angeles
H Retention Management
H Claim Administration
Walter Crow
Bay Village, Ohio
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Commentary
BY PATRICK COLLINS
Personal ERM
HOLY SMOKES! THATS IT!? (My palm slaps my forehead.) In some
ways, it seemed like such an obvious conclusion.Perhaps the answer
was always right there in front of me the whole time and I chose not
to see it.
endeavor. After all, before you can thrive,
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Often overlooked or underappreciated is the opportunity component of
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By exploiting prospects, an enterprise
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Really good companies have been doing ERM for centuries without formally
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improve the chances of success. Some
examples include:
catastrophes;
Shoring up important client
relationships;
Recognizing and retaining key
employees;
Accounting controls to prevent fraud
and theft;
Pruning unprofitable or non-strategic
business units;
Developing new business relationships or tactical alliances.
Recently, I decided to approach
these concepts in a different way and
apply ERM to my own life. The result
was enlightening.
The Enterprise Is Me
What is the best investment I can make
now in my personal enterprise, giving
me the highest return and reducing the
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1 4 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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Up to Code
BY JOHN PURPLE
Owning Precept 13
WHAT IS IT ABOUT the requirements of Precept 13 that makes many
actuaries uncomfortable? One of 14 precepts in the Code of Professional Conduct, Precept 13 requires an actuary to take action if he or
she has knowledge of a potential violation of the code by another credentialed actuary. Much like the Transportation Security Administration
ads, this is the if you see something, say something requirement.
carried on into college, where most undergraduates would turn a blind eye to
all but the most egregious violations of
campus rules by their peers.
Now that we are credentialed actuaries, however, we are part of a profession,
and the rules and perceptions must
change. Code violations by our members are serious business for all of us. It
takes only a few publicized cases of bad
work to ruin the reputation of the entire
profession and undermine public trust in
what we do. As a self-regulated profession, we have established:
Rules
1 8 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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HICKSVILLE, NY 11801
the code or an actuarial standard of practice (ASOP), and the situation is resolved.
But what are your options if a discussion doesnt take place? Note that
Precept 13 doesnt require you to talk
with the other actuary. Annotation 13-2
says an actuary is not expected to discuss the potential violation if prohibited
by law or if an adversarial relationship
exists with the other actuary. You also
can decide that you simply dont want to
have the conversation. Or perhaps you
did talk with the other actuary and matters werent resolved to your satisfaction.
The reason doesnt matter here, but
Precept 13 clearly states that the actuary
shall disclose the violation to the ABCD if
the discussion didnt occur or was unsuccessful. And, it should be noted, failure to
comply with the requirements of Precept
13 could be a violation of Precept 1, which
634603 WySTARad.indd
2 0 1C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
9/26/11 10:07 AM
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Especially him. Were smarter together.
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Black
Warrior
A BUFFALO SOLDIER LOOKS BACK
By Ivan J. Houston
with Gordon Cohn
2 2 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
Company I, under its commander, Lt. Jesse Jarman, on the left, with its command post
at Cascina, reported enemy activity around
an area designated Outpost 4. In the firing
that followed, Platoon Sgt. James E. Reid of
Company I, with whom I had played cards
and passed idle hours only days before as we
crossed the Atlantic, was wounded and later
died, thus becoming the first fatality of the 3rd
Battalion, the first battle casualty of the 92nd
Division, and the first African-American in
the European theater of war to die in infantry
WWW.CONTINGENCIES.ORG
To the Italian people
they liberated,
their skin color was
less important than
their bravery and
sacrifice under fire.
April 1945:
The author
on leave
in Rome
each community seemed to grow as the morncombat. Just like that, someone I had known
ing progressed. At a hamlet just north of the
was gone. There was much confusion during
Arno, the citizens greeted us with more cries
our first night in combat. A password to be
of Viva Americani! Buongiorno! and phrasused each night was given to every member of
es that were beyond our limited vocabulary.
the 5th Army, but an American woman named
Others just waved happily. Some of the womMildred Gillars, who broadcast German proen could be seen crying. The excited civilians
paganda to the American troops each night as
clung to our vehicles and showered the soldiers
Axis Sally, also had the password somehow.
with grapes, flowers, and fruit. Some ran along,
Her revelations enabled the Germans to infilpouring wine for all who would accept it, while
trate American positions. Axis Sally was to play
others of both sexes and all ages paid their tribmusic for us every nightjazzand if the Gerute with hearty kisses. They had every guy in
Houston and his mother
mans had taken any prisoners from our unit,
in Los Angeles, June 1944
the column feeling like a conquering hero. Even
she was certain to announce it. She would say
today I smile and feel good when I recall those
things like, Give up your arms, and Why
scenes. Here were white Italians greeting African-Americans as
are you fighting? We found her jabber entertaining, never
liberators and showering us with love, while in our own country
demoralizing.
we remained second-class in all respects.
It was during the assault on Ripafratta on Sept. 4 that we
Viva Americani!
learned
that the noise and dust generated by our tanks were
On Sept. 1, 1944, Combat Team 370 crossed the Arno River,
the cause of the heavy German fire. Infantrymen learned to stay
which flows between Pisa, with its famous leaning tower, and
away from our advancing tanks. As soon as our tanks appeared,
the Renaissance city of Florence.
we knew that we had to get some shelter because the Germans
As the 3rd Battalion began its offensive, we moved through
were going to start firing at the tanks. They could hear them from
the villages and towns of Lugnano, Uliveto, Caprona, and Asciaa considerable distance or probably see their dust. All kinds of
no, all on the north side of the river east of Pisa. All along the way,
artillery would come flying in if a tank was anywhere near us.
hundreds of starving and cheering Italians surrounded our veThis created a dilemma for those troops attacking with tanks
hicles. They threw flowers at us and shouted, Viva Americani!
since tanks and infantry attacked as a team. The death of Maj.
They had been living behind German lines for months without
Aubrey Biggs, the executive offer who was with Company I as
adequate food. Even though they were allies of the Germans,
it assaulted Ripafratta, was a consequence of this kind of teamthey did not like the Tedeschi, the Italian word for Germans.
work. Major Briggs was the first white officer killed in battle.
Except for a few fascists, most of the people we encountered
Also, during the battle for Ripafratta, Jumbo Joe Fry, 1st sergeant
were truly happy to see us: They were free. Celebrations in
of Company K, showed outstanding leadership
and later received a battlefield commission. Fry
was from Pennsylvania.
Our entire battalion felt the weight of enemy artillery fire that day. We took more than
500 rounds. I dont think there was an hour that
passed from the time we went on line in August
until the war ended when there was not artillery
fire coming in or going out. We could always hear
the artillery passing overhead and the hissing of
the incoming shell. Then, of course, there was
the explosion, and sometimes when it was close
we could feel the debris from it. Mortars were
different: You never knew where they were coming from. They would just start exploding around
you.
My father had been an officer in the 92nd DiSept. 1, 1944: Two
columns of Company
vision artillery in France during World War I. He
I, 3rd Battalion,
had told me that artillery fire overhead sounded
370th Regiment,
ford the Arno River
like a freight train. He was right.
unopposed, as the
I was in the temporary command post in a
5th Army advances
very
large villa when we were shelled 127 times
against the Germans.
2 4 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
WWW.CONTINGENCIES.ORG
Arno River
little Spanish, a little Italian, and Portuguese. The Brazilian commander and I talked and finally clarified our situation.
Mounting Casualties
SH UTTERSTOCK
The 3rd Battalion had succeeded in breaching the famed German fortifications of the Gothic (sometimes called Green) Line.
The men of the 3rd Battalion moved quickly and pressed the
retreating Germans. We surprised them with our ability to move
fast and maneuver our vehicles over impossible terrain. The
Germans continued to demolish the road before us.
After just over five weeks of combat, Combat Team 370 had
suffered 263 casualties: 19 dead, 225 wounded, and 19 missing.
There were also a number of noncombat casualties, including
the sick and those who were otherwise injured.
At the north end of Pietrasanta, near a town called Querceta,
there was a factory housing huge slabs of Carrara marble that
had been quarried from the mountains above. As I headed to
the battalion outpost just north of Querceta, the Germans began shelling. I ducked into the factory as the shelling continued.
When the slabs of marble began getting hit, the shards of stone
struck like shrapnel and the shelling became even more dangerous. I got out of there in a hurry.
In Pietrasanta we relieved a British unit during a period of
heavy shelling by the Germans. It was afternoon, and despite
the bombardment, the British paused for tea. I was invited to
join them as the area around us seemed to explode, yet none of
us was hurt or even excited during that curious
and surreal respite.
Mount Cauala dominated Seravezza, and
every move that our troops made in the shattered town was visible to the enemy in the hills
above. Medium and heavy artillery raked the
buildings at regular intervals, and small-arms
fire swept the streets if men appeared. Careful
reconnaissance was made for observation posts
and approaches to the river crossing, and company commanders were given the plan of attack.
Company I would attack Mount Cauala on the
right, Company L in the center, and Company K
on the left. K Company would lead out, carrying
the telephone wire for communication.
With the coming of daybreak, the Germans had begun to
counterattack on the mountain. Bill Rich, a corporal I knew in
K Company, told me when he came off the hill later that morning, the Germans had kept coming despite our heavy fire. He
thought they were fanatics.
German mortar fire and grenades could not dislodge our
men, and they stuck to their position throughout the afternoon
despite dwindling ammunition supplies. Pvt. Jake McInnis of
Company K was one of the mainstays in this defense, personally
killing over a dozen Germans with his Browning automatic rifle
before being knocked out by a concussion grenade. He was taken
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 2 5
A C onversation
with
Ivan Houston
The Serra River in Seravezza, Italy, at the point where Houston crossed
with the ammunition detail in October 1944. Mount Cauala rises
sharply on the right. This photo was taken 58 years later, on
Oct.16, 2002.
to the rear but returned days later. His stand that day earned
him the Silver Star.
I had volunteered for the ammunition supply detail with about
a dozen men. I carried a metal box of ammunition in each hand.
The boxes were rectangular and weighed about 25 pounds each.
I loosened the sling on my M-1 rifle and slung it over my back.
The first time I saw the Germans up close and shooting at us was
at Seravezza. As we approached the hill, we looked up and could
see a German machine gun raking our position. There were two
German soldiers manning the gun, and our fire hit one. The other
carried him away, and we continued toward our goal. When we
reached the base of the hill, the Germans unleashed a tremendous
artillery barrage. We crouched for a time and then continued on
our way. Halfway up the hill we encountered more machine-gun
fire and mortars. Shrapnel was flying all around, and some of it,
quite hot, landed on my clothes, burning through to the skin.
Some in our detail were hit. The detail could not continue and
returned to the base of the hill. We had failed in our mission to
supply ammunition, and soon other men from the rifle companies
were coming off the hill. It became a mess. I will never forget the
smell of burning gunpowder as the shells exploded all around us.
I lost my appetite for several weeks after this experience. For a
while I thought I had been gassed; however, it was the burning
cordite that came from the exploding shells that had made me ill.
During the battle for Seravezza a large number of the battalions officers and enlisted men were killed, wounded, or listed
as missing in action. Most of those listed as missing were later
confirmed as killed in action. Lt. Lionel Ladmirault of Company
I, an African-American from Louisiana with blue eyes, blond
hair, and white skin; Lt. Ralph Skinner of Company L; and Pfc.
Hugh Portee were killed in action. Lt. Skinner, although mortally wounded, continued to lead his men against a German
counterattack until he died. He was awarded the Silver Star
posthumously. Pfc. Portee was near me during our effort to
2 6 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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Houston at the
Cinquale Canal on the
western edge of the
Gothic Line.
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 2 7
Official Recognition
On Oct. 17, the regimental commanding officer reported that Maj. Gen. Edward M. Almond would
inspect the battalion at 1300 hours. Maj. Gen. Almond (1892-1979), who was the commanding officer
of the 92nd Infantry Division, believed in segregation and opposed integration of the armed forces.
Maj. Gen. Almond appeared promptly and
marched up and down our formations. Col. Clarence W. Daugette and each company commander
went with him. The general stopped in front of me
and asked how long I had been with the battalion.
He talked to my commanding officer, Capt. Hugh D.
Shires, and with Col. Daugette and ordered them to
award me the Combat Infantrymans Badge for exemplary conduct in action. I guess the award was for
trying to get ammunition onto the hill above Seravezza and for surviving almost two months of continuous
combat. At any rate, I did receive the much-soughtafter badge and $10 more in pay each month. After the war, all
who had received the Combat Infantrymans Badge were entitled
to a Bronze Star upon request. I received my Bronze Star medal
years later from the War Department.
On Nov. 4, 1944, Combat Team 370 was dissolved and returned to the 92nd Infantry Division. Col. R.G. Sherman,
commanding officer of the combat team, issued the following
General Order:
As this Combat Team passes into history, I, who have had
the privilege of commanding it, desire to review, with you,
some of the highlights of its brief, but extremely active life.
Consisting of selected officers and men, this Combat Team
was designated for immediate combat duty in an active
theater and sailed from the United States, 15 July 1944,
for the Italian Theater. In addition to its Combat Mission,
Combat Team 370 was charged with the duty of preparing
the way for the remainder of the 92nd Infantry Division,
soon to follow in our footsteps.
Three weeks after landing in Italy, Combat Team 370,
then a member of the famous 5th Army, found itself fighting at the front as a team-mate of the old and experienced
1st Armored Division. Never have two units worked more
in harmony or with better resultsacross the Arno River
over Mount Pisanointo the Gothic Line defenses near
Bagni di Luccaarmor, infantry and artillery, each assisting
the other, while their respective supply units, also working
2 8 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
Men who were killed in action and could be identified became the responsibility of the regiments graves registration
officer. His responsibility was to arrange for temporary burial.
There would be every effort to identify the body and to send it
back to temporary burial sites well behind the lines. Later those
men who had died in action were gathered, and their burial
place became the U.S. Military Cemetery in Florence.
Today, that cemetery honors 4,402 soldiers, sailors, and airmen. I have been there three times, most recently in 2013. Few
places I know of are more beautiful than Tuscany, and in a tiny
corner of that stunning region of Italy lie 400 African-Americans,
descendants of slaves, who marched, fought, and died fighting and
defeating the great evil of Nazi Germany. The blood of Buffalo Soldiers mingles in historic soil with the blood of the ancient Romans.
The names of another 1,409 men fill a Wall of the Missing.
One of them was the last African-American infantry officer killed
during our tenure in combat. Why his body is listed as missing in
action I dont know. That was Lt. John M. Madison from Company I, winner of the Silver Star, Bronze Star, and Purple Heart.
He is listed on the wall as missing in action, yet he appears in our
battalion journal as wounded then killed on April 5, 1945.
WWW.CONTINGENCIES.ORG
D ocumenting
Buffalo Soldiers
My last visit to the Florence cemetery occurred in the process of making a documentary film about my book and the
remarkable gratitude the Italian people of Tuscany have shown
toward the Buffalo Soldiers (see left).
Unheralded Heroism
The early days of December were clear and cold. The 3rd Battalion was ordered almost 30 miles east and attached to the 6th
South African Armored Divisions 11th Armored Brigade at Castel di Casio. This sector was deep in the Apennines, northwest
of Florence and north of Pistoia along Highway 64.
The South Africans had fought with the British 8th Army
and defeated Field Marshal Erwin Rommels Afrika Korps in
the North African desert in 1943. We remained alongside the
South Africans through December and January. At first we were
housed in a castle, but we later moved to a small factory and then
to a farmhouse in the mountains.
The 3rd Battalion was now operating alongside Brazilians
and South Africans as part of an international force.
On Dec. 23, we saw the first heavy snow cover the North
Apennines, and the air was cold and windy. Some of our troops
were issued white snow uniforms. It seemed unreal to me that
African-American troops from the American South were wearing
snow-white uniforms and fighting in 10-foot-deep snowdrifts.
From our position 30 miles to the east, along Highway 64
leading to Bologna, we learned that the Germans had attacked
our division before dawn on Dec. 26 at several points on a sixmile front along the Serchio River.
During a German attack that day, 26-year-old Lt. John R. Fox,
an artillery observer with the 366th Infantrys Cannon Company, was killed after calling down artillery fire on his observation
post, the second floor of a house in Sommocolonia. The 366th
The grave of Capt.
Jesse Jarman,
370th Infantry
Regiment, 92nd
Division
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 2 9
3 0 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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PROJ ECT GU TENBERG E BOO K OF INT EGRATIO N OF THE ARME D F ORCES 1 9 40 -1965
SHUTTER STOC K
The seaside resort of Viareggio, Italy, has miles of sandy beaches, shops,
and restaurants.
test scores who formed our ranks felt they were often being sent
on suicide missions. We were hobbled by stragglers, yes, but we
fought on and in the last weeks of the war achieved a remarkable
victory with our 65-mile march through the Apennines from Barga
to Pontremoli. We defeated the Nazis and Italian Fascists, causing
thousands of them to surrender, but we did not conquer Jim Crow.
In 1978, Philippa, my wife, and I visited Italy for the first time
since the end of the war. We rented a car in Paris and drove to
Italy. Naturally we stayed in Viareggio, since that had been the
headquarters of the 92nd Division.
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 3 1
Drilling
own
D
A
B y Cra i g Cop e la n d
or surpass the traditional retirement age of 65, the financing of retirement in the
United States is forcing its way into the national zeitgeist. Boomers, born between
1946 and 1964 and now ages 50 to 68, currently total slightly more than 75 million
people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. As it has from birth onward, this
cohort will alter the nations demographics as it continues to age. The resulting
sharp rise in the U.S. elderly population will make it much more expensive to support programs,
such as Social Security, that are geared for the elderly.
Under current law, a retiree beneficiary turning 65 can
expect Social Security benefits to replace approximately
30 percent to 50 percent of preretirement income, depending upon his or her earnings history. (For families
with one earner meeting the spousal benefit criteria, these
replacement rates would increase by 50 percent, because
the nonworking spouse could qualify for a benefit equal
to 50 percent of the working spouses benefit. Therefore,
on a family basis for one-earner couples, the replacement
rates would range from about 45 percent to 75 percent.)
As a result, if workers hope to maintain their preretirement standard of living even without any changes
in Social Security benefits, they may need other s ources
of income in retirement. Because an important other
source of income is an employment-based retirement
plan, understanding the percentage of workers currently
participating in those plans provides critical insight into
retirees future financial status.
SHUTTERSTOCK
3 2 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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Demographic Characteristics
Among the 156.5 million Americans who worked in 2012, 76.0
million worked for employers or unions that sponsored a pension
or retirement plan, and 61.6 million participated in a plan (see
Figure 1). This translates into a sponsorship rate (the percentage
of workers working for an employer or union that sponsored a
plan) of 48.6 percent and a participation level of 39.4 percent.
This measure of the workforce, however, contains the unincorporated self-employed and those younger than age 21 and
older than age 64. For wage and salary workers ages 21 to 64
(excluding only unincorporated self-employed, as incorporated self-employed workers are considered wage and salary
workers), the sponsorship rate is 53.4 percent, and the fraction participating is 44.2 percent. Separating these wage and
salary workers into public and private sectors shows that 70.5
percent of the public-sector workers participated in an employment-based retirement plan, compared with 39.1 percent of the
private-sector workers.
Another definition of the workforce that most closely resembles the workers who generally must be covered by an
employment-based retirement plan in accordance with the
Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) is
full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21 to 64. Under
this definition, 60.4 percent of workers worked for employers
sponsoring a plan, and 53.5 percent of the workers participated
in a retirement plan.
The percentage of workers who participate in a retirement
plan increases with age (see Figure 2). For those ages 21 to 24,
16.2 percent participated in a plan, compared with 49 percent
of those ages 45 to 64. Overall, male workers are slightly more
likely to participate in a plan than females, but female full-time,
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 3 3
Drilling Down CO NT IN UE D
FIGURE 1
Share of various workforces working for an employer that sponsored a retirement plan,
and the proportion participating in a plan, 2012
All workers
Worker category total
Working for an employer
sponsoring a plan
Participating in a plan
156.5
76.0
61.6
57.6
20.5
16.3
92.2
55.7
14.6
49.3
100.0%
79.3%
100.0%
60.4%
71.5%
53.5%
43.0
(percentage)
FIGURE 2
Share of specific workforces working for an employer that sponsored a retirement plan
and the proportion participating in a plan, by various characteristics, 2012
Full-time, full-year wage
and salary workers
All workers
ages 2164
Sponsorship Percentage Sponsorship Percentage
Age
rate
participating
rate
participating Annual earnings
20 or younger
21.3%
4.1%
Less than $10,000
2124
32.9%
16.2%
42.7%
28.7%
$10,000$19,999
2534
47.1%
36.1%
55.2%
45.7%
$20,000$29,999
3544
52.7%
45.4%
60.9%
54.6%
$30,000$39,999
4554
55.5%
49.1%
64.9%
59.7%
$10,000$49,999
5564
55.6%
48.9%
64.5%
60.5%
$50,000$74,999
65 or older
41.4%
31.6%
$75,000 or more
Gender
Male
48.2%
39.8%
58.9%
52.3%
Management, business and
financial
Female
49.1%
38.9%
62.4%
55.0%
Professional and related
Race/ethnicity
Service
White
52.4%
43.3%
65.2%
58.5%
Sales and related
Black
48.4%
36.9%
59.4%
51.0%
Office and admin. support
Hispanic
33.1%
24.4%
41.9%
34.3%
Farming, fishing, and forestry
Other
46.4%
38.5%
57.5%
51.4%
Construction and extraction
Education
Installation, maintenance,
No high school diploma
20.9%
12.0%
29.2%
21.4%
and repair
High school diploma
42.4%
32.8%
53.1%
44.9%
Production
Some college
47.6%
36.7%
61.0%
53.0%
Transportation/material
Bachelors degree
59.4%
51.2%
68.0%
61.9%
moving
Graduate/professional degree
67.4%
61.4%
74.4%
70.6%
Marital status
Fewer than 10 employees
Married
53.8%
46.9%
63.5%
58.2%
1049 employees
Widowed
46.1%
34.9%
61.1%
51.4%
5099 employees
Divorced
51.3%
42.6%
62.1%
54.4%
100499 employees
Separated
41.9%
31.9%
52.5%
43.4%
500999 employees
Never married
39.0%
26.7%
52.8%
42.6%
1,000 or more employees
Work status
Public sector
Full time, full year
57.3%
50.6%
60.1%
53.5%
Full time, part year
Part time, full year
Part time, part year
40.0%
29.8%
25.1%
27.6%
16.4%
8.8%
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the 2013 March
Current Population Survey
3 4 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
Private sector
Agriculture, mining, and
construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation, utilities,
information, and financial
Professional services
Other services
Public sector
55.1%
21.0%
28.9%
43.2%
8.8%
27.1%
44.5%
72.1%
44.4%
53.1%
65.3%
18.7%
42.8%
61.1%
66.2%
36.3%
45.7%
56.7%
15.9%
37.3%
52.8%
50.9%
42.4%
40.4%
31.9%
59.1%
51.5%
49.7%
43.4%
Employer size
14.0%
11.2%
29.7%
22.7%
44.1%
34.5%
54.2%
42.7%
59.2%
47.3%
64.9%
51.3%
77.6%
68.9%
Sector/industry
43.7%
34.4%
28.7%
23.4%
20.8%
37.5%
52.1%
61.9%
66.4%
73.6%
84.2%
17.7%
31.5%
44.0%
52.9%
57.6%
64.6%
80.2%
55.7%
38.7%
48.2%
33.1%
61.3%
44.1%
55.5%
52.4%
30.9%
47.5%
67.9%
54.5%
64.4%
60.3%
45.6%
58.2%
46.8%
24.3%
77.6%
37.7%
14.8%
68.9%
58.5%
34.3%
84.2%
50.6%
25.9%
80.2%
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FIGURE 3
Male
Female
60%
50%
56.2% 57.4%
52.5%
49.1%
40%
35.3%
30%
30.2%
30.4%
27.6%
20%
25.3%
18.8%
10%
0%
18.4%
15.4%
12.8%
10.7%
7.5%
9.6%
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the 2013 March Current Population Survey
FIGURE 4
Male
Female
62.6%
69.3%
46.7%
40%
37.5%
30%
20%
10%
0%
8.8%
11.8%
$20,000$49,999
$50,000 or more
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the 2013 March
Current Population Survey
Digging Deeper
A number of other demographic breaks also are significant:
GenderFemale workers overall are found to have a lower
participation level in an employment-based retirement plan
than males. However, among full-time, full-year workers,
females have a higher rate of participation. In fact, across
all work-status categories, females were more likely to
participate in a retirement plan than males (see Figure 3).
Furthermore, the proportion of females participating in a
plan is higher than males at each earnings level (see Figure
4). As a consequence, female workers lower probability of
participation in the aggregate is a result of their overall lower
average earnings and lower rates of full-time work in comparison with males.
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 3 5
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FIGURE 5
White
Black
Other
Hispanic
HispanicNative Born
HispanicNon-native Born
66.1% 66.2%
57.3%
45.2% 44.1%
51.2%
40.2%
37.4%
29.5%
23.1%
20%
10%
0%
61.6%
61.2%
12.1% 11.2%
9.2%
6.1%
7.9%
4.7%
$20,000$49,999
$50,000 or more
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the 2013 March Current Population Survey
Race/EthnicityAnalysis
of race/ethnicity shows that Hispanic workers are significantly less likely than both white and
African-American workers to participate in a retirement plan.
However, two important characteristicsbirth location and
average earningsplay into these differences. Hispanics who
were not born in this country have persistently lower probabilities of participating in a retirement plan, while U.S.-born
Hispanics have participation levels closer to those of white
and African-Americans at each earnings level (see Figure
5). Consequently, the overall differences by race/ethnicity
are largely driven by the relative earnings levels between
the groups, except for those Hispanic workers not born in
the U.S., who have lower participation levels regardless of
earnings.
Firm/SizeEmployees of smaller firms, those with fewer
employees, were significantly less likely to participate in a
retirement plan. This holds true for workers at each age group
and earnings level. Even among workers making $75,000 or
more, a considerable disparity existsjust 25 percent of those
in that income category working for the smallest employers
participated in a plan, compared with 78 percent of those
working for employers with 1,000 or more employees.
EducationWorkers with lower educational attainment have
lower levels of retirement plan participation. Educational attainment has a strong positive correlation with earnings, but
across each earnings level those with the least education (no
high school diploma) still had significantly lower levels of
participation than those with at least a high school diploma.
Specifically, 37.6 percent of those without a high school diploma
who were making $75,000 or more participated in a retirement
plan, compared with 71.5 percent for those with a graduate or
professional degree. Consequently, the education level of workers clearly plays a role in the likelihood of participation in a
retirement plan beyond determining earnings levels.
AgeYounger workers significantly lower likelihood of
participating in a plan could be caused by lower incomes.
3 6 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
FIGURE 6
Less than 45
45 or older
62.8%
66.7%
50%
46.1%
40%
38.9%
30%
20%
15.8%
10%
0%
7.7%
$20,000$49,999
$50,000 or more
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the 2013 March
Current Population Survey
Geographic Differences
Certain worker/employer demographic characteristics are associated with different likelihoods in workers participation in an
employment-based retirement plan. Workers geographic locations within the United States are also associated with different
participation levels. Workers living in states in the South and
West, such as New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, Texas, and Arizona,
are less likely to participate in a plan. In contrast, workers living
in Midwestern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern states (Iowa,
Minnesota, District of Columbia, Wisconsin, and Maryland)
have higher participation levels.
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Defining Terms
The term sponsorship rate is defined as the
percentage of workers in the specified workforce who worked for an employer or union
that sponsored a plan in a given year for any
of its employees, though not necessarily for
the worker in question. The term percentage of workers participating in a plan is not
synonymous with the standard retirement
plan term participation rate, which is generally understood to mean the percentage of
eligible workers who participate in a plan.
In contrast, the terms participation level or
percentage participating refer to the fraction of the workforce participating in a plan,
regardless of plan eligibility. Consequently,
participation rate is not used.
Parsing Participation
The trend in the percentage of workers participating in an employment-based retirement plan has been essentially stable from
1987 to 2012. The participation level for all workers went from 37.6
percent in 1987 to 39.4 percent in 2012, while the participation level
for full-time, full-year workers went from 58.4 percent in 1987 to
53.5 percent in 2012 (see Figure 7). The share participating across
each demographic category was similarly stable from 1987 to 2012.
Furthermore, the magnitudes between the categories of the demo
graphic variable for the most part also were relatively stable.
The one significant exception to the overall result is the
closing of the gap in the participation levels between male and
female workers. In 1987, the proportion of male workers participating in a retirement plan was 40.9 percent, compared with
33.8 percent for female workers (see Figure 8). This was a gap
of 7.1 percentage points. This divergence gradually closed so
that by 2009, the percentage of female workers participating
actuary.org
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FIGURE 7
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the 2013 March Current Population Survey
FIGURE 8
Share of all workers who participated in an employment-based retirement plan, by gender, 19872012
48%
46%
44%
42%
40%
38%
36%
Male
34%
Female
32%
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the 2013 March Current Population Survey
3 8 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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FIGURE 9
Number of those working for an employer that does not sponsor an employment-based retirement plan and number
of workers not participating in an employment-based retirement plan, by various demographic and employer
characteristics, 2012
Characteristics
Millions
Total
Self-employed (not wage and salary)
Net wage and salary
(Share of total)
80.5
94.9
100.0%
8.9
9.0
11.0%
100.0%
9.5%
71.6
85.9
100.0%
100.0%
19.1
23.5
26.7%
27.4%
32.6
40.0
45.5%
46.6%
25.1
30.4
35.1%
35.4%
40.2
43.6
56.2%
40.8%
Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute estimates from the 2013 March Current Population Survey
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 3 9
PI ERRE LEVERT
Sauriol, post-journey
Bold Man
BY J EA N -G U Y S AU RI O L
My first concrete step, because it involved a financial commitment, came when I bought an indoor rowing machine in
September 2010. Later that same year, my wife and I took a
cruise across the Atlantic. As we traversed the waves, we discussed my doing the same in a rowboat.
In November 2011, I went to the Canary Islands. San Sebastian on the island of La Gomera is the starting point for an ocean
rowing race that is held every two years. Initially, I had thought I
would participate in the race, but eventually I decided to do my
crossing in its purest formtaking a boat to the water and simply
leaving. Upon my return from the Canary Islands, I made my
decision: I would row across the Atlantic from east to west using
the trade winds route that Christopher Columbus had followed.
Someone had given me the name of Tony Humphreys as a
person who could help me with all the logistics of ocean rowing. I met Tony at the Dublin airport in August 2012, and we
drove to Dingle on the southwestern coast of Ireland to check
out a boat, Positive Outcome. While I didnt buy Positive Outcome, which already had been rowed across the Atlantic once,
my trip to Ireland gave me the opportunity to get to know Tony.
He became my technical adviser and was instrumental in the
success of my adventure.
My preparations were moving forward, but it was mid-August
2012 and I still didnt have a boat. Ocean rowing boats are custom
built. And while the design has evolved over the years, in practice most of them are the brainchild of Englands Phil Morrison
(there are only a limited number of reputable builders worldwide, and the better ones are in England). Upon my return from
Ireland, I contacted Jamie Fabrizio. Jamie is arguably the best
ocean rowing boatbuilder in the world. He builds only two boats
per year, and he started mine in January 2013. By July 2013, I was
able to take delivery of Maple and transport her to Tonys home
in Plymouth, England. There, we devoted a week to getting her
ready. At that time, I spent about 36 hours on the boat, rowing
for about six of those hours and sleeping two nights in her berth.
When I returned to Canada at the end of July 2013, I moved
into the final months of preparation for my grand adventure. I
still had a few bits and pieces to buy, including all my food for
the trip, which I bought online for delivery to Tonys home in
Plymouth.
At that point, my priority became training for the expedition.
I spent as much time as possible at our country home in Brighton, Ontario, rowing on Presquile Bay, just off of Lake Ontario. I
did up to three sessions each day, rowing from two to four hours.
I also hit the gym for strength training two to three times a week.
The time for my departure, Nov. 14, 2013, came quickly
enough. I said goodbye to my wife and my son, as they werent
coming with me to the Canary Islands for the launch. The plan
was for them to greet me in Barbados at the end of my journey.
I flew into London and took the train down to Tonys home in
Plymouth. Tony and I spent three days there working on the
boat, packing the food, and getting her ready for our road trip
to the Canary Islands.
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Electronic Equipment
These are the electronic aids that kept Maple safe on the big
ocean:
Two satellite phones, to make voice calls and connect to the
case of trouble;
A PLB (personal locator beacon) in case the EPIRB isnt
functional or is unavailable;
A GoPro to take videos;
A waterproof camera to take pictures and videos.
Tony. Getting on the boat, I knew there was no turning back. I was
going. I picked up the oars and made my way out of the marina.
Tony and Jean-Louis watched as I disappeared behind the waves.
Barbados Bound
That first day, I rowed until I began to feel seasick. It was just
past sunset. During the night, I went back to the oars to make
up for what had been a short day of rowing. I suffered from seasickness for the next two to three days, but on Friday, Nov. 29, I
woke to a flat and noiseless ocean. It was eerie. Unfortunately,
it was the start of a weather system that would cripple my advance for approximately two weeks. During those two weeks, I
looped around close to the islands from which Id departed, being pushed by contrary southwest winds and northern currents.
Fortunately, nothing lasts forever, and eventually the conditions
changed in my favor. On Dec. 13, I was able to resume my journey toward Barbados in earnest.
While I was close to the islands, I saw several ships. Most of
the time, I was alerted to their presence by my AIS (automatic
identification system), a gadget that sent and received information between my boat and surrounding vessels. The procedure
was always the same: I would call the other boat on my VHF
marine radio, explain that I was a small ocean rowing boat, and
ask them whether they could see me on their radar or AIS. The
AIS was just one of many devices that kept me from being just
a small speck on a very big ocean.
I had my first maritime scare on Dec. 13, the day that conditions improved. At a distance I saw a sailboat that seemed to
be aiming straight for me. I looked at my AIS and couldnt see
anything on the system. I called on the VHF radio but didnt get
any answer. By the time the sailboat was about half a mile away
from me, I became concerned. I fired off a white flare to let the
people aboard know I was there. That boat passed by me at a
distance of about 150 feetclose enough that we could speak to
each other. They asked me whether I needed help. I said no, and
they went on their merry way.
The change of conditions on Dec. 13 was part of a weather system that would eventually rotate 360 degrees clockwise
around me. The winds changed from south to west to north to
east. In the process, those winds created big seas with waves
coming from all directions. On Dec. 17, my boat capsized three
timesonce while I was on deck rowing and twice while I was
sleeping inside the boats cabin. The boat had two watertight
cabins, storage in the forward and living quarters in the stern. As
planned, the air in the cabins and the boats low center of gravity
caused it to right itself within seconds of a capsize.
In the first capsize, I lost a few items, such as water bottles
and food that Id brought on deck for the day. Fortunately, I wore
an ankle leash whenever I was on deck. But the cabins were a
mess afterward. I also had a helmet to wear, which protected me
the two times the boat capsized while I was sleeping. Still, after
capsizing, I didnt row for two days, opting instead to stay in my
cabin while I waited for the ocean to calm down.
Finally I began making forward progress. I also gradually
began regaining my strength. I had exhausted myself trying in
vain to extricate myself from the adverse weather system. By
Christmas, I accepted the fact that the crossing would require
90 days. During a live TV interview by satellite on Dec. 25, I said
I was planning to arrive on Feb. 22.
I had planned to be on the ocean on Dec. 31, my 60th birthday. On that day, I also was interviewed live, and the three
newscasters sang Happy Birthday, Jean-Guy while I listened
on my satellite phone from the middle of the ocean. It was a
special moment, a magical moment.
On Jan. 1, I had my best day up to that point, rowing 56 nautical miles. This was the start of a good stretch. Until mid-January,
I averaged in excess of 50 miles per day. In mid-January, I again
encountered contrary conditions that kept me from rowing for
three days. I used the time to clean the boat and went in the water to check the hull of the boat for barnacles. Luckily, the boat
was clean and I didnt have to spend more time than necessary
in the water. Also, on a very calm night with a full moon, I had
my Rachmaninoff moment. I sat on the deck, listening to Symphony No. 2. I think the third movement is the most beautiful
music ever written.
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 4 5
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PHOTOS, CLOCKWISE FROM TOP L EFT: L UCIE CO SSETTE, TONY HUMPHREY S, J EAN-GUY SAURIOL
Sleeping Safely
Change
Bests Capital
Adequacy Ratio
Adjustment System
Bests Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) is an integrated
review of an insurers underwriting, financial and asset
leverage. A.M. Best analysts use this calculation to
test the impact of scenarios that affect an insurers
financial outcomes.
The BCAR Adjustment System is a desktop application that provides
online access to the same base model and data used by A.M. Best to calculate the
BCAR score for approximately 3,000 single and group U.S. property/casualty companies.
You can use it to assess the impact of various scenarios just as an A.M. Best analyst
would, for competitive comparisons and benchmarking research.
13.0328
www.ambest.com/sales/bcarsystem
NOTE: The results or output created by use of the Bests Capital Adequacy Ratio Adjustment System (Output) is for informational and
internal purposes only, and such Output may not match or be consistent with the official BCAR score that A.M. Best publishes for the
same company. The Output is not guaranteed or warranted in any respect by A.M. Best.
Revitalizing
Reinsurance
Capacity
Life insurers
cant continue
to wait for
the markets
to resolve the
impact the
financial crisis
has had on
their capacity.
New ideas are
needed.
BY JEFF BURT
Marketed as offering generally modest returns, the instruments largely performed well for investors. They certainly
served as a vital risk-spreading mechanism for insurers. But
while these instruments didnt default during the crisis, they
were adversely affected by illiquidity and couldnt easily be
sold or exchanged for cash without a substantial loss in value.
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 4 9
This last took a toll on the instruments reputation, effectively curtailing their continuation. Investors
who backed them in the past no longer have the appetite, compelling banks to largely pull away from the
market. Given banks thorny challenges in the post-recession era, this isnt surprising. The ability of banks
to fund increases in assets and to meet obligations as they come due without incurring unacceptable losses
is under duress. It has created a liquidity crisis that has compelled many banks to restrict even traditional
products like letters of credit.
returns for investors. Most important, it could set the stage
The life insurance industry has its own financial problems,
for a return to the partnerships that existed among banks and
with some large investors now debating whether or not to conreinsurance companies in the pre-financial crisis period. The
tinue investing in the companies because of the low return on
difference this time around would be that the reinsurance incapital. A case in point is the pressure applied last year by major
dustry would be taking the lead.
shareholder and hedge fund manager John Paulson, who sits
The concept is bold: Rather than banks becoming reinsurers,
on the board of Hartford Financial Services Group, to split the
as in the pre-financial crisis period, the roles are reversed.
companys life and property/casualty units. The insurer
Unlike banks, which didnt necessarily specialize
subsequently sold its block of 700,000 individual
or concentrate on insured risk as much as
life insurance policies to Prudential Finanon other asset-backed classes, reinsurcial Inc. in a reinsurance transaction for
ers are experts in this regard. They
$615 million in cash.
underwrite only those exposures
The Hartford is not alone in
that they believe to be actuarially
this decision. The Allstate Corp.
sound. The capital for this pool
is selling its Lincoln Benefit Life
of reinsurance capacity could
Co. to Resolution Life Holdings
The concept is bold:
come from many of the same
Inc., reducing the regulatoryRather than banks becoming reinsurers,
sources that invested in bank
required capital in Allstate
products prior to the financial
Financial by approximately
as in the pre-financial crisis period,
crisis. The difference, how$1 billion. In addition, the
the roles are reversed. Unlike banks,
ever, would be a heightened
company announced it would
reinsurers are experts in this regard.
degree of visibility into the
discontinue issuing fixed anThey underwrite only those exposures
underlying risks and the consenuities. These decisions were
quent higher comfort level that
based on its strategy to serve disthat they believe to be
this
transparency could provide.
tinct customer segments in which
actuarially sound.
Before I offer arguments for why
it enjoyed a competitive advantage.
this is a prudent investment, it might be
Other insurers, like Aviva, have exited
worthwhile to explore more fully the facthe life business in certain markets, as well.
tors that gave rise to the need for such a solution.
Obviously, these developments dont bode
well for life and health insurance underwriters in the
United States. The companies are unable to source adequate
Regulatory Changes
reinsurance capacity to spread risk, they are stymied by a comThe array of complex global regulations promulgated in the
bination of regulatory and economic factors in achieving a
aftermath of the financial crisis created difficult financial condecent return on investments, and they are pressured by lower
ditions for banks. From a historical standpoint, strict regulations
demand for products as a consequence of the recessions effect
are common following a crisis. During times of bank distress,
on personal income.
governments often intervene in the activities of banks, as well
Few traditional options exist to overcome what appear to be
as provide capital support to reduce bank risk taking. This ininsuperable financial challenges. But necessity is the mother of
tervention, in turn, affects a banks liquidity creation, restricting
invention. I would like to propose a structure that could supthe availability and cost of credit.
port a potentially large source of risk-spreading capital for life
Several regulations governing bank liquidity and the riskand health underwriters. Given the mortality exposures at risk,
based capital of insurance companies either have been executed
it would be hinged to the development of a more transparent,
or are in the process of implementation on both sides of the Atlanstable, and long-term instrument offering solid risk-adjusted
tic. These new rules include Basel 3, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street
5 0 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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The challenge
in a capitalist
environment is to
promote market
competition to
bring prices down.
If safeguards
are overly strict,
the forces of
competition
dissipate and
previously robust
market solutions
may disappear.
A Convergent Solution
For life insurers and their investors, these developments cry out
for a solution. Although many insurers believe the markets eventually will regain lost ground and return to historical norms, and
regulators trust that the friction caused by their interventions
ultimately will ease, there are no guarantees this will happen in
the near term. Given the difficult business conditions confronting the life insurance industry, its customer base, and society at
large, inertia isnt the answer.
From a commercial perspective, the objective should be the
development of a sound financial instrument in which investors put their capital at risk to absorb clear, transparent, and
quantifiable risks aggregated in a new investable class. While
this instrument contains the same insured risks marketed a decade ago in the capital markets, the difference is a better, more
efficient, and inherently safer structure. Most important, it requires a convergent solution by the same industriesthe capital
markets and reinsurersthat put their balance sheets at risk of
insurance exposures before the financial crisis surfaced.
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 5 1
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Resources
Allstate Announces the Sale of Lincoln Benefit Life Company, Wall Street Journal,
July 17, 2013. http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20130717-911231.html
De la Merced, Michael, After Pressure From Paulson, Hartford Puts Units Up for
Sale, New York Times, March 21, 2012. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/03/21/
after-pressure-from-paulson-hartford-puts-units-up-for-sale/
Mercado, Darla, The Hartford Makes 180-Degree Turn With Reorganization,
InvestmentNews, Oct. 7, 2012. http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20121007/
REG/310079973
Thomas, Denny, and Sumeet Chatterjee, Update 1Aviva May Exit India Life
Insurance BusinessSources, Reuters, Aug. 5, 2013. http://www.reuters.com/
article/2013/08/05/aviva-india-idUSL4N0G61X220130805
Special Section
2014
SOFTWARE
SHOWCASE
Actuarial Resources
Corporation
Actuarial Resources Corporation (ARC) has been providing software and consulting services to the
insurance industry for more than 25 years. Life, health,
and annuity insurers across the nation rely on our
comprehensive financial analysis system, ARCVAL,
which offers blazingly fast calculations and state of the
art audit reports. Our dedicated team participates in
industry committees and workgroups, keeping our
software at the leading edge of actuarial science.
Our strategic partnership with SunGard iWorks
Prophet allows ARC to provide best of breed software for all actuarial functions from a single source.
Prophet has migrated from desktop actuarial projection software to an enterprise technology platform
providing the power and performance needed to run
models in a secure and controlled environment.
Prophet is used by more than 9,000 people in over 730
customer sites in 60 countries, including a rapidly
expanding client-base in North America with extensive libraries designed specifically for the U.S. market.
Insight Enterprise
Insight Enterprise is a BI system developed by IDS
specifically for life and health insurers and reinsurers
complete with data management tools and integrated
applications. The wide range of embedded applications includes experience studies, sales and marketing
analysis, operational performance, business profiling,
actuarial applications and financial analysis. The system enables companies to make faster and better
decisions, provide confidence in data and enable staff
to focus on analysis.
One advantage of Insight Enterprise is that experience
study systems usually have limitations around the
flexibility of the study. Results are normally available
at a pre-determined level of aggregation for a limited
number of attributes, due to the sheer volume of data
generated in processing the study. Insight Enterprise
has been designed to remove such limitations by using
data warehouse technologies to calculate and analyze
studies. For example, its dimensional model allows
studies to be carried out over the full range of mortality factors and other attributes available.
GGY AXIS
Milliman
Milliman
Arius
Arius is the next step in the evolution of reserve
analysis solutions. Arius combines our 20+ years of
providing the most widely used deterministic tools
with our industry-leading research into using multiple models to simulate loss distributions and reserve
variability. Arius full spectrum of exhibits and projection methods help eliminate tedious number
crunching and reduce review time. Eleven different
stochastic reserving models help estimate distributions of possible outcomes on both an ultimate and a
one-year Solvency II basis. You can make more effective decisions about reserves, capital allocations, and
reinsurance; you can also incorporate volatility as a
key input into strategic decisions about premium and
profit targets, and into ERM projects.
Integrate
Integrate is a cloud-based financial projection solution that is offered by Milliman as Software as a
Service (SaaS) for the life insurance industry. Integrate offers end to end workflow automation,
assumption management, collaboration, full governance & control, and virtually unlimited computing
capacity necessary to support emerging production
modeling requirements. Integrate utilizes the Microsoft Windows Azure public cloud platform to provide
highly available services and MG-ALFA is the actuarial calculation engine at the core of Integrate.
Integrate services are supported by an expert actuarial and technology support staff and Service Level
Agreements that are able to reliably support top tier
business critical applications.
5 4 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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Since 1970, PolySystems has provided productiongrade actuarial software and consulting services to
life, health and annuity companies. Our integrated
software suite offers comprehensive valuation, modeling and experience study capabilities. It is used by
actuaries to calculate reserves and capital, perform
asset/liability projections for cash flow testing and
planning, set assumptions, carry out sensitivity and
stochastic analyses, manage inforce profitability, price
products and much more.
Headquartered in Chicago, we have over 90 actuaries
and IT professionals working to meet our clients actuarial software needs at both the product and
enterprise level. Our data extract professionals seamlessly integrate PolySystems with your data
architecture. Our actuarial consultants are invaluable
partners when designing complex models or performing attribution analyses.
With a unique combination of flexibility and out-ofthe-box functionality, our software can handle new
product development and complex assets and is continuously updated for the latest regulations and
product features. Partner with PolySystems, leave the
actuarial programming to the experts, and free your
actuaries to do what they were meant to do.
Capital adequacy measurement and allocation, reinsurance analysis, asset-liability optimization, product
strategy and business planningour consultants have
a wealth of knowledge and expertise to help you improve business performance. Towers Watson offers the
P&C industrys widest range of analytical software
products designed to bring competitive advantage to
users:
Radar supports the rate selection process using interactive scenario testing.
WinTech
and
WinTechs flagship product, ProVal is the DB and
OPEB industry standard for valuation and projection
software. ProVal has thousands of users worldwide
among more than 250 leading actuarial consulting
firms and investment advisory firms. Powered by
ProVal, ProVal PS is a graphical toolkit offering advanced financial sensitivity and asset allocation
modeling.
project benefits.
DCVALBalance forward recordkeeping for DC
5 6 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
plans.
WWW.CONTINGENCIES.ORG
Wanted: actuaries
with vision
Workshop
BRIAN ROBINSON
the liabilities. Although this proved useful, there were clear limitations with the
technique. Considerable expert judgment was required, and it was difficult
to construct a replicating portfolio that
accurately captured the dynamics of
more complex liabilities. In addition, the
technique could only be used for assessing the effect of market risks.
With the arrival of Solvency II, many
life insurers that chose to implement an
internal model started to adopt curve
fitting, which calibrates a mathematical
function that aims to replicate the underlying liabilities. In recent years this
technique has evolved to least squares
Monte Carlo (LSMC), which is becoming
more prevalent as firms seek improved
accuracy for more complex portfolios,
including both assets and liabilities.
Proxy Function(s)
e.g, Y= F(x1,x2...)
Proxy
Techniques
MIN
MAX
5 8 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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SPEED
capture this path dependency and better inform management regarding its
impact, especially under stress and scenario testing.
Hedging increasingly is an area in
which management is beginning to see
the power of proxy techniques. Here
managers can assess the effectiveness of
hedging strategies, calculating the hedging gain/loss over the projected runoff
of liabilities. Firms also are looking at
how they can reduce their capital requirements by allowing for the planned
management actions associated with
their hedging strategy.
Communicating Complicated
Practices
Theres no denying that some complex
mathematics lie at the heart of these
practices. Its important that senior managers understand why these techniques
are being used, how they are being applied, and any limitations they present.
From the perspective of business
applications, education clearly is important. Understanding the sophisticated
mathematics will probably be a step too
far for many senior managers, so how can
we make them comfortable with these
complicated techniques? Validation and
communication of limitations make a
good starting point. The aim of validation
is to show that the proxy functions replicate the existing complex models within
an acceptable tolerance. Communicating limitations should ensure that senior
management is aware of instances when
proxy functions are being applied inappropriately or are at the boundaries of
their use.
Common sense also plays a role. Senior managers understand the dynamics
of their business, and its important that
This article is solely the opinion of its author.
It does not express the official policy of the
American Academy of Actuaries; nor does it
necessarily reflect the opinions of the Academys
individual officers, members, or staff.
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 5 9
Tradecraft
RUSS BINGHAM
ADVANCES IN COMPUTING, the evolution of enterprise risk management (ERM), and more sophisticated approaches to dealing with
risk and return are compelling insurance companies to refine how they
measure, monitor, and report financial and operational success to management, shareholders, and regulators.
Progress has been uneven. But interest in improved reporting picks up in the
wake of certain situations, including:
Periods of high inflation and interest
rates;
Major financial market shocks;
Catastrophic events;
Increased rating agency focus on
ERM;
Regulatory pushes such as we are
currently experiencing with Solvency
II and own risk solvency assessment
(ORSA).
Although many companies are improving
their financial modeling,
the return of economic
growth, higher interest
rates, regulatory pressure,
and escalating competition very likely will speed
up innovation in this area.
Insurance company
success seldom is achieved
without a disciplined underwriting operation,
particularly in the long
run. Pricing methodology
and models play an essential role in this processpricing based
on prospective cash flows that reflect
the linkage between risk and return over
the lifetime of the policy is critical. While
the industry employs many approaches,
I plan to focus on current best financial
modeling practices that encompass pricing and financial valuation throughout
the company.
Executives are hungry for valueadded information on the performance
of their companies. While what follows
Essential Elements
Technical elements that any insurance
financial model must contain to meet
6 0 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
timing of all cash flows, from the policys inception until the final transaction
related to that policy period occurs. In
long-tail-claim lines of insurance, the
final transaction can be decades in the future. The valuation must reflect interest
rates and the time value of money, based
on discounted cash flows and net present
value calculations.
Risk controlSufficient risk capital must be assigned and maintained to
control the potential effect of underwriting risks on the companys financial
position. In the insurance process, risk
results from variability in the amount
and timing of cash flows over the full lifetime of the policy, from inception until
the last transaction settlement. It is important that risk capital be maintained
in proportion to the level of insurance liabilities and risk exposure
that remains at any point
over this same time frame.
Risk-based realization of profitsThe
risk-based nature of insurance pricing requires
that insurance profits be
realized in relation to insurance risk exposure
over time. Essentially,
this principle ties the release of profits (i.e., the
economic dividend) to the
resolution of risk as insurance liabilities diminish
over time (the basis of the risk exposure),
in much the same way that risk capital is
controlled. The initial underwriting income or loss that occurs when writing at
combined ratios below or above 100 must
be amortized in the same way. This parallels the effective interest method of
amortization that is used in investment
accounting to treat any initial bond purchase premium or discount.
The combination of policy period,
economic accounting, and the risk-based
WWW.CONTINGENCIES.ORG
THINKSTOCKP HOTOS
Editors note: This article is the first in a series of articles on insurance accounting. In the next article, the author will look at the risk-based amortization of
underwriting income (or loss) and how it parallels the effective interest method of
amortizing the bond premium or discount, essentially analogous to insurance selling above or below 100 combined ratios. This is a critical step that links the charge
for risk with the risk exposure over time and serves to overcome one of the limitations of conventional accounting.
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 6 1
Cryptic Puzzle
TOM TOCE
Silver Screen
BECAUSE OF THE MAGAZINES PRODUCTION SCHEDULE , my deadline for writing this puzzle coincided with the annual Academy Awards (the other Academy, the one based in Beverly Hills). As a result, I
had Best Picture winners on my mind. I memorized all of them a few years back, as I was preparing for my
appearance on Jeopardy! With a little searching, I was able to find the last fewto make sure this puzzle included one from every decade since the awards started in the late 1920s.
The following sonnet contains the anagrammed names of
14 Best Picture movies. The anagrams are of either one or two
words. The two-word anagrams always involve consecutive
words. The other words in the poem are meaningless, at least
as far as clueing goes.
Unlike the Hurricane puzzle last year, there isnt any overlapping. Its one movie per line.
My favorite movie of all time is a Best Picture winner: The
Best Years of Our Lives, which won in 1946. I would love to have
put that one in, but I found it impossible to anagram in just one
or two words. A big hint for you, then, is that most of the movies
I chose for the puzzle have short titles. Theres one from every
Solutions may be emailed to
Thomas.Toce@ey.com. In order to make the
solver list, your solutions must be
received by May 31, 2014.
decade since the 1920s, and because that makes 10, four decades
are represented with two winners.
If youre a movie buff, or if you happen to be preparing for
a quiz show, please try to get them all without consulting any
references. If you do, let me know your time: Ill send you a personalized email response of congratulations and list you in the
next issue! For those of you, most Im sure, who do not happen
to know that The Life of Emile Zola won in 1937 or even that The
Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won in 2003 (neither title
is used in this puzzle, for obvious reasons), I recommend glancing
at Wikipedias page on Academy Awards for Best Picture for help.
Thanks to Eric Klis and Bob Fink for test-solving and editorial suggestions.
T O M T O C E is a senior manager for actuarial services with Ernst
& Young in New York and a member of the Jeopardy Hall of
Fame.
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1 2 3 3 4 5 6 7
T H E
I apologize for forgetting to put letters as well as numbers inside the boxes in the diagram for this puzzle. It was a short quote, though, so I hope it didnt slow you down too
much. For this puzzle I needed to get in touch with Scott Adams, to ask for the exact
source of the quote. There are numerous collections of Dilbert, and I wanted to cite
the proper collections title. I found his contact info at his website, and I was gratified
by how quickly Scott replied to my inquiry. He said the proper source would simply
be Dilbert, not one of the collections. That was fortunate, in a way, because a long
title would have led to many more short wordsno chrysanthemum or makeshift.
33
85
25
68
90
13
T O N E
A B U S
D U N K
A S
34
H E
U N
V E
W O R K
M Y
T E R
O U
N N Y
66
80
89
56
78
92
86
46
65
53
B A
T E N
82
61
B U T
36
17
H E
74
63
C O U N
N G
T E M
E R
3
32
21
A N D
K E
R O
U N D
27
N U M B
72
51
22
E
60
40
42
39
47
93
E R
95
67
F T
12
88
52
N V
29
24
83
71
77
19
37
E N
T E
73
B O G U S
E R R O R
R U B E
79
55
23
26
18
10
64
58
69
94
45
49
87
50
11
44
Solvers
84
20
T W O S
59
41
A. SCONEAnagram of Coens
B. CHRYSANTHEMUMAnagram of
rhythm cues, man
C. OUTERAnagram of route
D. TONETO (towards) + NE (New
England)
E. TINNYTINY (little) with N
(number entering)
F. ABUSERAB(US)E (Lincoln embraces
our objective) + R (right)
38
L. INVITEagaIN VITEbsk
M. LIENHomophone of lean
N. BOGUSGO (relieve oneself) inside
SUB (U-boat) reversed (making a
U-turn)
O. ERRORR (run) + OR (operating
room) after ER (emergency room)
P. RUBERU (are you IMing) + BE
(Ben endlessly)
Q. TWOSHomophone of TOO
(excessively) + S (ultimately tedious)
D E W Y
Q. Twains excessively
speechifying and ultimately
tedious
48 49
A K E S H
I. Married adult, kinky from the M
91
76
81
35
70
14
get-go, with peculiar fetish,
quick and dirty
S A U T E S
J. Cooks with suet as fluid!
T O R
W A Y
S C O N E
H R Y S A N T H E M U M
B. Plant crazy rhythm cues, man C
62
48
5
43
28
54
30
8
2
15
31
16
75
O
U
T
E
R
C. Peripheral route developed
E A
Clues
A. Coens pitching for some
quick bread.
C R
57
G. DUNKDunkirksIRKS (losing
grates)
H. ASSESSOdd letters in As sisters use
I. MAKESHIFTM (married) + A
(adult) + K(kinky from the get-go) +
fetish (anagram)
J. SAUTESAnagram of suet as &
literally
K. DEWYHomophonic pun on do we!
(no need to ask us twice)
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 6 3
Bridge Puzzle
EDITH McMULLIN
Leading Trumps
YEARS AGO , a friend asked me to give her husbands bridge game a
quick upgrade. They were planning a trip to the Caribbean with friends:
scuba diving by day and bridge every night. I knew their friends were
better players and that the man was (still) proud of his IQ and his Ivy
League education. A fun time was going to be had by all!
I was teaching a course called Improve Your Social Bridge (the precursor
to my Easybridge! 1 book,) and I told
her Id give it a tryshorthand bridge
rules, big strokes. Eight weeks later they
set sail. The one lesson I knew theyd
learned was leads against suit contracts
and its corollary: Unless otherwise indicated, lead a trump against a part score
(a non-game-level contract).
Upon returning, my friend called
and said theyd not only won the overall
weeks score, but amazingly, had won every night as well. (Uh-oh.) I asked about
the other couples reaction. She replied,
Well, they didnt say anything until the
third or fourth night, when one of them
said, Boy, you sure lead trumps a lot!
1
1
WEST
Pass
Pass
NORTH
1
2
K94
AQJ74
J4
K82
SOUTH
QJ10876
K2
AKQ3
A
Contract is 6. Opening lead: 10.
Your play?
EAST
Pass
All pass
WEST
QJ103
4
J106
108652
K74
A987
A9743
Q
Experts
Solvers
SOUTH
A2
KQJ1062
K52
KJ
North/South reach a 6 contract with
no opposition bidding.
Opening lead: Q ? Your best play?
6 4 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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THANK YOU!
The Actuarial Foundation thanks its top-level 2013
corporate sponsors for their generosity and support!
rence of
Confe
ies
uar
Con
sulting Act
Actuarial Society of
Greater New York
TM
Puzzles
LENNY SHTEYMAN
Passover Special
AS I WRITE THIS , my favorite holiday, Passover, is only a week away.
Its a celebration of freedom, a holiday that commemorates the miraculous exodus of the Jews from Egypt. Its also a story that leads to
many, many questions. Actually, part of the Passover tradition is to encourage questions. One of the questions that mathematically minded
people might ask is why did it take Moses and the Jewish people so
long to cover a fairly shortly distance?
restrictions on the shape of the detours
you can take? This question is more interesting mathematically, but way too
general for the scope of this column.
Instead, heres the real puzzle for this
issue. I hope you will be able to see the
connection with long-distance travel.
THINKSTOCK
6 6 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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Ad Index
To add your companys name to this list, call Mohanna Sales Representatives
at 972-596-8777 or email info@mohanna.com. For links to these
magazine added < A1. Now add six more
magazines like that. By construction, A1
> A2 > A8. If we were to construct this
sequence to the end, we would have 15
such numbers in decreasing order. The
first eight magazines clearly must cover
more than 815 of the table.
Puzzle 2: Lets assume that all pairwise intersections are strictly less than19.
In that case, the union of two polygons is
larger than 1 + 89. If we add a third polygon, its overlap with the previous union
couldnt be more than 29 ( 19 for each of
the two polygons), and the total area of
union of the three of them must be at
least 1 + 89 + 79.
Repeating this argument six more
times, we can conclude that the total
area covered by all nine polygons must be
strictly larger than 1 + 89 + 79 + ..+ 19 = 5.
This is a contradiction of the original
condition that all of the polygons must fit
in a square of area five.
Actuarial Foundation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
847-706-3535 | actuarialfoundation.org
Actuarial Resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
913-451-0044 | arcval.com
AM Best. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
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DW Simpson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C2
800-837-8338 | dwsimpson.com
Ezra Penland.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
800-580-3972 | ezrapenland.com
GGY Axis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Solvers
877-GGY-AXIS | ggyaxis.com
416-479-0384 | insightdecision.com
KPMG. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C3
416-777-8500 | kpmg.ca/lifeactuarialservices
MIB. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
781-751-6130 | mibgroup.com/healthriskID
Milliman. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3, 4041
206-624-7940 | milliman.com
PolySystems Inc.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C4
312-332-5670 | polysystems.com
Swiss Re. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
914-828-8000 | swissre.com
Towers Watson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9, 15
Winklevoss. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
212-725-7550 | towerswatson.com
203-861-5530 | winklevoss.com/wintech
WySTAR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
800-505-9076 | wystar.com
MAY | JUN.14 C O N T I N G E N C I E S 6 7
End Paper
BY ROBERT J. RIETZ
Mortality
home after a long, hard day at work and reached fearfully into the
mailbox. I knew this day was coming, and the mail confirmed that today was the day. There it was, nestled among the usual collection of
bills, magazines, and junk mail. The bright red, white, and blue envelope
belied its contents. I had just received my invitation to join AARP, documenting that I was about to turn 50.
Despite the abundance of Carolina
blue skies in the summer, theres another
dark and stormy night in my immediate
future. Im becoming more reluctant
to trudge down to the mail station to
pick up our mail. Older readers already
know the reason for my reluctance, and
younger readers may have guessed it.
Im about to become eligible for Medicare, which means that within three
months Ill turn 65.
The Social Security website tells me
that my life expectancy is 19 years. The
actuaries who developed the RP-2000
Mortality Table are more optimistic,
telling me that my white-collar life expectancy is 20 years. I like their opinion
better. As a member of the Actuarial
Board for Counseling and Discipline
(ABCD), I am particularly sensitive to
complying with actuarial standards of
practice (ASOPs). ASOP No. 35, Selection
of Demographic and Other Noneconomic
Assumptions for Measuring Pension Obligations, instructs me to project decreases
in future mortality rates, so my life expectancy stretches to 21 years. Thats not
very long.
Bill Clinton won his first presidential
election 22 years ago. Hillary Clinton is
being mentioned as a potential presidential candidate, shrinking the gap
between 1992 and today. My first grandson, Grant, was born 18 years ago. I
remember changing his diaper and going on weekend errands together. Hes
entering college this fall. I know time
flies, but does it have to cruise at supersonic speeds?
6 8 C O N T I N G E N C I E S MAY | JUN.14
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