Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Impact of
Macroeconomic
Factors On Money
Supply
Managerial Economics and Business
Environment
Section- K
13/01/2010
SUBMITTED BY:
SUBMITTED TO:
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors On 201
Money Supply 0
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This project work on Managerial Economics and Business Environment
is a result of coordinated effort between us and our esteemed faculty
Prof. Trilochan Tripathy under whose guidance we have put forward
this work of endeavour. This work would not have come into the shape
it is now without his constant inspiration and motivation to guide us
through this project work. It gives us immense pleasure to be able to
work under him.
We would also like to thank our colleagues who have been pillars of
support to us and provided us necessary inputs to make this work a
enjoyable experience.
Thank You.
SULABH GOEL
VARUN BHATIA
DATED: 13.01.2010
CONTENTS
1) Abstract--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------4
2) Objective------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------5
3) Methodology--------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------5
4) Data
Source----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------5
5) Introduction---------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------6
6) Impacts of
inflation--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8
7) Types of
money----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-10
8) Components of money
supply-----------------------------------------------------------------11
9) Link of GDP with money
supply----------------------------------------------------------------14
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To study the impact of macroeconomic factors on money supply and
how they are related to each other.
DATA SOURCE:
To study the aforesaid phenomena, we have taken genuine data from
sources that are valid. We have taken at least 15 years of data for this
purpose from sources such as Reserve Bank of India’s Statistical
Report, www.investopedia.com, www.wikipedia.com,
www.economicsguide.com, www.indiabudget.nic.in,
www.iloveindia.com .
METHODOLOGY:
After collecting the required data, we have analyzed the same through
statistical tools such as SPSS 13.0 and Microsoft Excel 2007. Through
the above softwares we have run regression analysis to interpret the
effect of GDP and Inflation on money supply. The various determining
factors obtained in a regression analysis have then been interpreted to
INTRODUCTION:
Inflation and monetary policy are closely related concepts wherein the
latter can be used efficiently to reduce the effect of the former.
Inflation is the rise in prices and wages that reduces the purchasing
power of money. Monetary policy is the regulation adopted by the
central bank, which stabilizes the prices and maximizes production and
employment of the country.
Index) which includes a basket of 435 goods sans services. The recent
WPI Index of Indian inflation is given below:-
Source: www.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?
head=Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments.html
Impacts of inflation:
Source: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?
head=Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments
Types of money:
Modern money: The age of commodity money gave way to the age of
paper money. The essence of money is now laid bare. Money is wanted
not for its own sake but for the things it will buy. We do not wish to
consume money directly; rather we use it by getting rid of it. Even
when we choose to keep money it is valuable only because we can
spend it later on. The use of paper money has become wide spread
because it is a convenient medium of exchange. Currency is easily
carried and stored. The fact that private individuals cannot legally
create money keeps it scarce. Given this limitation on supply currency
has value. It can buy things.
15 IBS Hyderabad, Section K, Batch of 2011
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors On 201
Money Supply 0
Paper currency and coins are legal tender, which must be accepted for
all debts, public and private.
These are near money because they are safe, guaranteed by the
government and can be quickly converted into M1.
Source: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx?
head=Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policy
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policy
• velocity = the number of times per year that money turns over in
transactions for goods and services (if it is a number it is always
simply nominal GDP / money supply)
• nominal GDP = real Gross Domestic Product × GDP deflator
• GDP deflator = measure of inflation.
The quantity of assets goods and service sold during the year could be
grossly estimated by GDP back in the 1960s. This is not the case
anymore because of the rise of financial transactions relative to real
transaction. Money supply may be less than or greater than the
demand of money in the economy. If the money supply grows faster
than its use, inflation in a class of goods or assets is likely to follow
(according to Milton Friedman, "inflation is always and everywhere a
monetary phenomenon"). This statement must be qualified slightly,
Money supply and GDP do not automatically affect each other, but
Money Supply can affect GDP depending on monetary policy; the
expressed intention in economic management is to monitor the money
supply to allow transactions to take place. Therefore, if money supply
is severely restricted it is likely to affect the GDP: i.e.: reduce the
volume of transactions. The GDP can only increase the
demand of money... and transactions will stall if that demand is
not met. GDP is also inadequate as a measure of real
production, because it does not truly represent production, but it is a
statistic of dollar value of all transactions that have taken place. A
comparison of the two statistics maybe valuable after the fact to
examine the difference in growth ratio, to maybe predict near term
inflation, if money growth was too much larger than GDP.
Money is NOT increased as a result of greater ability to
produce, but it is increased intentionally to attempt to allow the
greater ability potential to materialize. Money supply affects GDP by
making transactions more efficient. You don't need to find someone to
trade with to get what you want, everyone takes money. The more of it
there is, the larger this effect becomes.
GDP affects money supply through the banking system. When growth
is high, banks make additional loans and expand the money supply.
The Federal Reserve also has something to do with it, but the dynamic
aspects of money supply rest with the banking sector.
The supply and demand for money jointly determine the market
interest rates. The following figure shows the total quantity of money M
on the horizontal axis and the nominal interest rate i on the vertical
axis. The supply curve is drawn as a vertical line on the assumption
that the Central Bank keeps the money supply constant at M*. In
addition we show the money demand schedule as a downward sloping
curve because the holdings of money decline as interest rates rise
i Section
D
26 IBS Hyderabad, K, Batch of 2011
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Money Supply 0
during inflation. At higher interest rates, people and businesses shift
more of their funds to higher yield assets.
per Year
Interest Rate Percent
D
S
0 M
M*
MONEY
The intersection of the supply and demand schedules in the figure
determines the market interest rate. Interest rates are the prices paid
for the use of money. In the figure, the equilibrium interest rate at the
point of intersection of supply and demand. Only at this point is the
level of the money supply that the Central Bank has targeted
consistent with the desired money holdings of the public. During
inflation, at a higher interest rate, there would be excessive money
balances. People would get rid of their excessive money holdings by
buying bonds and other financial instruments, thereby lowering market
interest rates towards the equilibrium rate.
i
D
Interest Rate Percent per
S’ S
Year
N
E
M
0 M*1 M*
Money
There are also frequent shocks to money demand due to cost push
Inflation. With higher prices the demand for money would increase,
shifting the money demand curve to the right from DD to D’D’ as
shown in the following figure and leading to an increase in equilibrium
interest rates.
i
D’
D
Interest Rate Percent per
S
Year
E’
D’
E
D
0 M
M*
Money
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
SAMPLE DATA:
Source: www.rbi.org.in/scripts/AnnualPublications.aspx
Source: http://www.financegurukul.com/?p=986
From the above found sources of data the following table has been
generated for the purpose of regression analysis:-
G MI Y
D on
P nf
el
a ya
t t
m s i
a uo
r pn
k p
e l R
t ya
p t
r e
i
c
e
s
(
r
u
p
e
e
s
i
n
c
r
o
r
e
Analysis :
Through the data given above, the following data regression analysis
has been done using Microsoft Excel software by copying the data into
a spreadsheet. Then through Data Analysis add-in, the results are
SU M M
39 IBS Hyderabad, Section K, Batch of 2011
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors On 201
Money Supply 0
SU M M
40 IBS Hyderabad, Section K, Batch of 2011
Impact of Macroeconomic Factors On 201
Money Supply 0
Interpretation:
CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
15. Michael F. Bryan, "On the Origin and Evolution of the Word
’Inflation’"
21.Barro 1997