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Gateway House New Cold War poses dilemmas for India

New Cold War poses dilemmas for India

BY Gateway House
September 12, 2014

The NATO summit in Newport, Wales on September 4 and 5 highlighted the hardened position
the grouping has taken against Russia and firm measures planned against the Islamic State.
As the rift between the West and Russia widens and West Asia burns, the implications of
NATOs imminent drawdown from Afghanistan are of immediate concern to India. NATO gave
no indication of a rethink on its exit schedule from Afghanistan which faces political turmoil.
The uncertainty is a matter of concern to India given the recent threats issued by Al-Qaeda
leader Ayman-al-Zawahiri.
Q. What were the most significant takeaways from the NATO summit?
It became clear that NATO regards its conflict with Russia, over Ukraine, as the most
significant challenge to the post-Cold War order, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union
in 1989. The second most important issue of concern is the resurgence of Islamic
fundamentalism in West Asia in the violent manifestation of the Islamic State.
The most significant from the Indian perspective is that there was no indication that NATO
is reviewing, if not revising, its exit schedule from Afghanistan which is splitting along
ethnic lines. The uncertainty regarding the presidential elections in Afghanistan is of major
concern to India, particularly in light of the threats recently issued to spread jihad across
India by Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
Q. How does NATO plan to confront the Islamic State (IS)?
At the Wales summit, Obama sought to build a coalition to tackle IS and in his policy
address on September 10, he called for its mobilisation. Ten West Asian countries
including Saudi Arabia have signed on. The air strikes on IS positions in Iraq are to be
extended to Syria and will temporarily halt the advance of the group. But, the biggest
threat perceived by NATO countries is the potential violence that fighters returning from
Iraq and Syria could unleash on their own countries. Hundreds of Americans, British and
French fighters are part of the estimated 1,000 to 3,000 IS jihadists from NATO members.
This is also a concern for India, 100 of whose citizens are believed to have joined the IS
and pose the same risk to India.
Q. How does the Ukraine crisis factor into NATOs agenda?
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, NATO has reinvented itself repeatedly. The
violence accompanying the break-up of Yugoslavia during the late 1980s and early 90s
became the basis for its out-of-area operations.
Since then, NATO has formed partnerships like the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council
(EAPC) and the Mediterranean Dialogue with non-member countries. NATOs new purpose
is in confronting Moscow despite some progress made in the Partnership for Peace with
Russia, and Ukraine and Russia both being members of the EAPC.
In Wales, NATO announced its post-Afghanistan mandate to be the maintenance of the
post-Cold War order with a new doctrine the 4,000 troops-strong rapid response force
to be stationed, provocatively close to the border of Russia. In addition, it has called on its
28 members to begin increasing their defence budgets. At present, only the U.S., UK,
Estonia and Greece spend 2% or more of their GDP on defence. NATOs belligerence and
fresh sanctions came despite Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and anti-Kiev rebel
groups agreeing on a ceasefire that although fragile, still holds.
Q. What are the implications of the Ukraine crisis for Russia and the West?
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Gateway House New Cold War poses dilemmas for India

The standoff has quite different implications for the U.S. and the European members of
NATO. The existential undertones in the American rhetoric on the sanctity of the post-Cold
War order in Europe betray the anxieties of a power that feels in relative decline, but is
keen to maintain its leadership.
The European members are divided on an East-West axis. The concerns of the eastern
and newer members such as Poland flow understandably out of their unhappy
experiences within the Soviet Union, and the much longer troubled history with Russia.
Although they are dependent on Russian gas and oil, their immediate fears transcend
their energy concerns. The concerns of West Europeans, on the other hand, are related
to their energy dependence on Russian gas and the market it offers to their automobile
and consumer goods industry. This is evident in the earlier, more reticent, positions that
Germany, Italy and France took on sanctions against Russia.
Western sanctions have pushed Moscow closer to Beijing, especially in the energy sector.
Moreover, Russia has instituted retaliatory sanctions, but they have little bite in the much
larger American and European economies. As the standoff grows more acrimonious, it
takes on the characteristics of another Cold War. Now Ukraine is the battlefield for the
sort of proxy wars that were fought between the West and the Soviet Union in Africa and
Asia during that period.
For India, this new Cold War poses major dilemmas. The U.S. and Russia are both Indias
strategic partners and two largest sources of defence imports. Indias energy security
may also be imperiled, despite the U.S. considering the export of shale gas to India and
Russia beginning to discuss building a $40 billion gas pipeline to India. At the same time,
India cannot afford to jeopardise its economic relations with NATO countries or Russia,
considering they are Indias largest markets.
This interv iew was exclusiv ely written for Gateway House: Indian Council on Global
Relations. You can read m ore exclusiv e features here.
For interv iew requests with the author, or for perm ission to republish, please
contact Reetika Joshi at joshi.reetika@gatewayhouse.in or 022 22023371.

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