Arab J Geosci

DOI 10.1007/s12517-011-0509-y

ORIGINAL PAPER

Fractal variogram-based timespace of aftershock sequences

analysiscase study: the May 21, 2003 BoumerdesAlgeria
earthquake, Mw 06.8
Moh-Amokrane Aitouche & Mabrouk Djeddi &
Kamel Baddari

Received: 13 September 2011 / Accepted: 13 December 2011

# Saudi Society for Geosciences 2012

Abstract The most of shallow earthquakes are followed, just

after the main shock, by increased residual seismicity known
as aftershocks or aftershock sequences. Because of their
disparity in time and space, aftershock sequences are more or
less obvious and their productivity is spread out in time.
Several studies have been regularly proposed to explain or to
understand the mechanisms of the occurrence and the behaviour of these small earthquakes. In a theoretical context, many
factors can induce the aftershock triggering: residual friction,
subcritical crack growth, pore fluid flow etc. Just after the
occurrence of the most destructive main shock of the 21 May
2003 Boumerdes (Algeria) earthquake, a wide sequence of
aftershocks was recorded at different geographical locations
and with various magnitudes. Based on the fact that the region
of Boumerdes (40 km east of the capital Algiers) did not
develop major earthquakes in the past, a geostatistical investigation of the data for this aftershock sequence is a valuable
input for better seismogeological identification of this area. In
the present analysis, after an overview of the geological factors
in the likely occurrence of the earthquake, fundamental statistical parameters were chosen: the b value from the Gutenberg
Richter law, the p factor of the extracted respectively from the b
value and the fractal variogram defined as a graphic tool to
describe the continuity or the roughness of data. Jointly to the
geostatistical parameters provided by the variogram like the
fractal dimension. The main objective of the calculation and
interpretation of these parameters is oriented towards a better
understanding of the seismicity of the region of Boumerdes
(Algeria) now classified as seismogenic zone.
M.-A. Aitouche (*) : M. Djeddi : K. Baddari
Earth Physics LaboratoryFaculty of Hydrocarbons and
Chemistry, Department of Geophysics, University of Boumerdes,
Boumerdes 35000, Algeria
e-mail: aitouchema@yahoo.fr

Keywords Aftershock sequence . Boumerdes (Algeria) . b

Value . p Parameter . Variogram . Fractal . Fractal dimension

Introduction
The 21 May 2003 Boumerdes (NE of Algeria) earthquake
(Mw 06.8) was one of the strongest destructive event that
occurred in the last decade in the Maghreb region (Northern
Africa). This last is known as a tectonic active zone where the
Eurasian plate is subducting the African plate with a velocity
of about 6 mm per year. That tectonic activity induces a
persistent compressional state not only along the continental
Mediterranean coast but also offshore (Benouar and Laradi
1996; Bouhadad et al. 1994).
The 21 May 2003 earthquake strongly struck the quite
balneal city of Boumerdes and its surrounding places like
the capital Algiers and Zemmouri city, located respectively
at 50 km NW and 15 km NE. The main shock (Mw 06.8)
which lasted between 30 and 40 s was followed by devastating
effects in terms of victims, injured people and collapsed infrastructures (Edward Curtis 2004).
The epicentre location was calculated at (latitude, 36.90 N
and longitude 3.71 E), at10 km approximately in offshore of
Zemmouri city (Fig. 1). The focal mechanism study exhibited
a trust-faulting process (strike 54, dip 47, rake 76). It
should be specified that neither geometry of this fault nor its
precise localisation were unsuspected and therefore not studied before the 21 May 2003 earthquake.
It was known that a more or less long aftershock sequence
follows the major event of earthquakes. That is observed
particularly for the shallow earthquakes like the Boumerdes
21 May 2003 (10 km deep). Aftershock series are due to the
upheaval of the local tectonic state induced by the stress
change of the main shock. The fundamental interest that a

Arab J Geosci

Fig. 1 Overview of the May 21, 2003 earthquake: a seismological retrospective (16751999) around the current epicentral area (from EERI
modified), b main features of the Boumerdes earthquake; b main features of the May 21, 2003, earthquake

recorded aftershock sequence offers for analysis is its combined temporal and spatial distribution. Then one can use the
one-dimensional or the multivariate statistical methods to
explore and to interpret the data displayed in the recorded
aftershock sequence (Bounif et al. 2004). Because of their
privileged temporal localization, i.e., after the main shock and
before the next earthquake, the aftershocks may be considered
as foreshocks for the seismological prevision approach.

Qualitative assessment of data

Source of data
The non-exhaustive data which is used in this study come
mainly from three sources: the Euro-Mediterranean Seismologic Centre (E.M.S.C), the National Network of Seismic
Monitoring (StrasbourgFrance) and the Algerian Astronomy
and Astrophysics Research Centre (CRAAGAlgeria). All
the data has been synthesized and provided by Azurseisme
(http://www.azurseisme.com).
We must specify that only the relatively high magnitudes
of the aftershock sequence are taken into account.
In addition, two forms of data are used: a first class of values
including only the absolute magnitudes without any reference

to the coordinates and a second class containing at the same

time the magnitudes and the reference coordinates (longitude
and latitude) of the epicentres of the recorded aftershocks.
We use the one-dimensional statistical study for the first
class and for the second one the three-dimensional statistical
approach.
For some magnitudes two or three values are proposed
relatively to the number of recording sources. In this case
and without supporting a centre of recording compared to
another, we carried out an average of the values of the
magnitude for the same couple of coordinates (longitude,
latitude). We think that this approach is more objective for
giving a better representativeness for any estimated value in
the aftershock sequence.
A limited range including 115 values of the aftershock
magnitudes is used in this study. Recordings are carried out
from May 21 2003 until December 21 2004 with a quiescent
period ranging between April and November 2004. The
lowest value is Ml 02.6 and it may appear negligible but
the presumed poor seismicity of the region of Boumerdes
(the epicentral area) consolidates this choice. Except the
main shock, the strongest magnitude included in the aftershock is Ml 05.7 (or Ml 05.8 for some other recording laboratories); its estimation and interpretation were a subject of
controversy just after the occurrence of the main event

Arab J Geosci

(7 min after the major event). For many people, this first
strong aftershock was felt like a second earthquake because of
additional hazard caused to population. Indeed, severe structural damage had accompanied the occurrence of this event.
For all the studied sequence, the aftershocks are shallow
(10 km). A summary statistical review is given in Figure 2.
Outliers detection in the data set
We have mentioned above that the psychological and material impact of the first strongest aftershock (Ms 05.7) which
occurred 7 min after the main shock (Mw 06.8). That aftershock magnitude may be considered relatively close to the
main shock knowing that the region of Boumerdes belongs,
until the event of 21 May 2003, to a seismically quite region
in north of Algeria. The first idea to justify this relatively
high value of the aftershock consists in supposing another
source for this last. Indeed, jointly with the offshore fault
responsible for the main shock (the Zemmouri fault), there
exists an older and better studied fault located at the NE near
the epicentral area, the WNW-ESE Thenia fault. This fault
(Fig. 3) is considered as one of the major faults close to the
city of Boumerdes liable to generate a strong earthquake.
The seismogeological interpretations made later included
this strong aftershock to the normal seismic activity which
occurs after the main event. Analysing the values included
in the aftershock sequence, the major magnitude of the main
event (Mw 06.8) may be described as natural failed value.
The asked question consists to know if the strongest aftershock recorded magnitude (M05.7) is another failed value
which could suppose the occurrence of another earthquake.
The calculated quartiles of the aftershock sequence are as
follow: the first quartile Q1 03.6, the second quartile (median) Q2 04.2 and the third quartile Q3 04.6. The third quartile
Q3 indicates that 75% of the aftershock magnitudes are
located under the magnitude 4.6. The inter-quartile IQ is
defined as: IQ0Q3 Q1 01. Figure 4 shows the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequences after distribution of
magnitudes in subclasses.

Fig. 2 Overview of the statistical features of the aftershock sequences

Fig. 3 Tectonic setting surrounding the epicentral area (from seismic

hazard and risk prevention in Algeria; Fettoum K. and Kharchi D.)

The presumed high failed values included in the aftershock sequence can be detected by using the Tukey criterion
which stipulates that such value is identified as failed in
given data must firstly belonging to this data and secondly
be greater than the result Q3 +1.5IQ. Applying this criterion
we obtain here the imaginary magnitude M06.1 which does
not belong to the aftershock sequence. Then only the main
shock magnitude Mw 06.8 may be characterized as failed in
the whole of the recordings.

Time analysis of the aftershock sequences

The seismological events can be classified as complex phenomena. They are nevertheless underlain by some simple

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of magnitudes vs. (longitude, latitude)

Arab J Geosci

empirical laws of which we cite the two most popular to

support the following time analysis of the aftershock sequence; firstly the GutenbergRichter law with its famous
value parameter for describing the cumulative distribution
of earthquakes or aftershocks magnitude over a given region
and secondly the Omoris law as another well-established
empirical law with its p parameter for evaluating the temporal rate of decay of aftershocks.
It is known that shallow earthquakes like Boumerdes
earthquake (estimated deep about 10 km) are naturally followed by sequence of aftershocks. For the event of May 21,
2003, the first and nevertheless strongest aftershock occurred 7 min after the main event. Its epicentre is not distant
from that of the main shock (longitude, 3.71 for 3.78 E;
latitude, 36.98 for 36.90 N) with a same dip (10 km). For
the Boumerdes aftershocks sequence, we observe two
events with a magnitude greater than Mw 05.5; the second
one occurred a week after the occurrence of the earthquake.

Fig. 6 Cumulative frequency curve vs. occurrence time (in days)

followed by a more or less long sequence of aftershocks

whose frequency occurrence decays temporally as an inverse power law tp of time where the exponent p is closer
to 1. So if we note n(t) the number of secondary events
which follows the main shock then

Temporal distribution of the Boumerdes aftershock

sequence

nt  t p

Generally, aftershocks are declared as strong if they reach at

least magnitude 5. In our study, we identified 13 secondary
events among 115 aftershocks (i.e., 11%) which follow this
criterion. Figure 5 illustrates the distribution of the whole
studied aftershocks sequence versus the chronology (in
days) of their occurrence (Nanjo et al. 1998).
Figure 6 is the cumulative curve of number of aftershocks
versus days after the main shock while Fig. 7 illustrates the
cumulated frequency of aftershocks versus their magnitude

This means that the of frequency of the aftershocks

dramatically drops following an hyperbolic pattern showing a fast decrease at first and then a gradual stabilization
of the number of aftershocks. Seismologists proposed
modified versions of the Omoris law trying to include
some other descriptive parameters for giving a suitable
interpretation to the activity of aftershocks. Among these
modified versions we can cite the following one (Utsu et
al. 1989)

Omoris law applied to Boumerdes aftershock sequences

dn
K
lt
dt
c t p

Globally, many factors may characterize any aftershocks

sequence such as productivity, depth, frequency, temporal
and spatial distribution and the rate of decay. That last factor
is the core of the Omoris law (1894) which describes the
commonly observed temporal aftershock rate decay pattern.
Indeed a main earthquake is frequently and immediately

where K, c and p are constants and t is the time variable.

Concretely, K defines the aftershock productivity, c represents
a period of time since the main shock and the exponent p
describes directly the rate of aftershock decay when t>>c.

Fig. 5 Frequency aftershocks vs occurrence time (in days)

Fig.7 Cumulated frequency curve vs. magnitude of aftershocks

Arab J Geosci

For a bi-logarithmic scale, Eq. 2 becomes

log lt log K  p logc t

and therefore the pertinent parameter p appears as the slope

of the decreasing line given by (3) in a bi-logarithmic scale
for c00 and for c0 (Fig. 8).
The p main parameter in the Omoris law is under a large
variability from a considered sequence of aftershocks to
another one, but typically the p value ranges from 0.5 to
2.5. However, the p value is closely dependent on the
tectonic of the studied region. It may be interpreted as an
indicator of the local fault activity or the surrounding tectonic
process. Thus, a higher p value reflects a spreading environment. Using the cumulative frequency approach, the calculated p value for the Boumerdes aftershock sequence is like p
0.7788 (Fig. 9). This weak value reflects probably a moderate
spreading tectonic regime within the epicentral zone.

Spatial analysis of the Boumerdes aftershock sequences

A preliminary aspect of the epicentres distribution of aftershocks sequence is given in Fig. 2. There are two distinct
clusters: the first one, more or less dense is distributed
around the epicentral area (longitude, 3.71 Nlatitude,
36.9 N) of the main shock. The second cluster is located
further north of the Zemmouri fault zone (longitude,
3.79 Nlatitude, 37.82 N). The inter-quartile accompanying the legend of Fig. 1 is an indicator of the values of
the magnitudes of the aftershocks sequence reference to the
main shock (Mw 06.8). To identify accurately seismotectonic characters a contour isoseismal is drawn (Fig. 10). It
shows a narrowing and elongation of isoseismal curves
defining with precision the epicentral zone and surrounding
the epicentre of main shock.
The elongation of isoseismal curves in the NESW direction which is correlated with the suggested offshore fault that
generates the 21 May 2003 Boumerdes Earthquake (Fig. 11).

Fig. 8 The modified Omoris law

Fig. 9 Evaluating of the Omoris parameter p for the Boumerdes

aftershock sequences

GutenbergRichter law applied to Boumerdes

aftershock sequencesanalysis of the b value
The most popular scaling power law for earthquakes is the socalled GutenbergRichter relation (Gutenberg and Richter
1942). It states that for a specified area the distribution of the
earthquakes occurrence and the magnitude appear to obey an
empirical relationship as
b m  M log10b
log10 N
a  bm

Fig.10 Isoseismal curves from the Boumerdes aftershocks sequence

Arab J Geosci

upper magnitude Mu 05.9 defined as the slope obtained

from the linear fitting and after equation 12 is b00.869.
This last lower value of b may mean that the epicentral
region of Boumerdes remained under higher stress after the
main shock of the May 21, 2003 earthquake and it reflects
the strong rupture process during this main event.

Fractal analysis of the aftershock sequences

of the Boumerdes earthquake
The introduction and calculation of the b value in the analysis of the aftershocks sequence, leads naturally to the
estimation of the fractal dimension of the process.
Fractal dimension vs. b value

Fig. 11 NE-SW fault direction

b  M
Here b
a and b are constants for a region and N
defines the cumulative number of events with magnitude
greater or equal to a reference magnitude M. This number
is currently replaced simply by N as the number of
earthquakes taken in a specified time interval. By putting
a log10b
a, the relationship 4 takes the most used form
log10 N m  M a  bm

The value of b also called b value is mostly in the range

0.8 to 1.2 and generally close to 1 for active regions. It
varies spatially as well as temporally, depending on the
tectonic regime of the stress. Graphically, b value represents
the slope of the linear relationship (5) between log10 N and
the variable m (Kagan 1996; Kagan 1999). In practice, due
to the fast decreasing of the frequency, a global non-linearity
is observed. Then a limited linear portion of the distribution
is selected in a certain range Mc mMu.
In the present work, after drawing the scattering plot
of the cumulative number of aftershocks with respect to
Eq. 5 (Figs. 12 and 13), a range of magnitudes [3.9, 5.7]
which offers best linearity was selected. The lower magnitude Mc 03.9 defines the completeness magnitude above
which the magnitude record is supposed complete. The

We specified in our previous analysis the importance attached to b value of the GutenbergRichter law and to the
Omoris temporal parameter p. More recently, another descriptive factor of seismological phenomenon has been introduced: the fractal dimension D (Scholz and Mandelbrot
1989; Palmer 1988).
Formally, there is no direct relationship between the b value
and the space fractal dimension because these two parameters
are influenced by identical seismological characteristics.
However, practical studies on the spatial variations of these
two parameters, showed a narrow interrelationship between
these obvious three quantities mainly between b value and
fractal dimension D.
Moreover, the empirical GutenbergRichter needs a better justification for becoming a mirror of the seismic context
of the considered zone and the fractal dimension can be an
active parameter here.
Contribution of the fractal dimension in seismological
studies
It is now accepted that the aftershocks sequence grows in
a fractal environment with non-integer dimension D (Barton
and La Pointe 1995).

Fig.12 Frequencymagnitude aftershocks distribution

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Fig. 13 Graphical evaluation of the b value

The fractal dimension on the spatial distribution of epicentres or hypocentres may be interpreted as an indicator of
geological heterogeneities within a fracturing material. Thus,
the fractal dimension provides information on the seismic
stability of a region, and its variations are interpreted as a
dynamic evolution of tectonic states (Smalley et al. 1987). It
was also noticed that the fractal dimension is scale invariance
which allows efficient statistical analysis of seismological
parameters to quantify the dimension of the seismic distribution
like the level of clusterization. This dimension characterizes the
degree of filling up of the considered space environment by
fractal structures. Knowledge of the fractal dimension becomes
a predictor of fracture process. For example a fractal dimension
close to 2 implies the presence of a plan being filled up by
fractal structures and the events can be distributed randomly or
in an organized basis in a two-dimensional space.
As mentioned above the spatial fractal dimension D of
earthquakes is correlated with the slope b of the Gutenberg
Richter law, regardless of the size of the earthquake. The
formula most commonly used is the Akis formula which
establishes a possible relationship between b and D as follows
D 3b=c

The fractal dimension is a parameter for quantifying the

size of earthquakes. On the assumption that the aftershocks
sequence resulting from the Boumerdes earthquake of May
21, 2003 (Mw 06.8) shows globally an intermediate event
(average magnitude, M04.), the second case cited above
may be accepted, then D02b with b00.869 as estimated
previously, therefore D01.738.
The b value is an indicator of the proportion of weak
events or strong occurrences. A high b value indicates an
increase in the number of small events thus a decrease in events
large and vice versa. The estimated b value (b00.869) directs
the sequence of aftershocks to the weak events which confirms
our analysis by quartiles. In the other hand, the fractal dimension D characterizes the degree of space homogeneity of the
events.
A relatively high value of fractal dimension means a
spatial dispersion of events and vice versa. The fractal
dimension D01.738 is substantially close to the Euclidean
dimension D02. So it is relatively high which means a
rather inhomogeneous spatial distribution of the aftershocks
sequence of Boumerdes earthquake. This spatial dispersion
of the aftershocks sequence may be highlighted also by
estimating the coefficient of variation. The coefficient of
variation (CV) is a statistical measure of the dispersion of
the points in a data series around the mean. It is expressed as
the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean. Using Fig. 2,
the computed coefficient of variation is 12%. This seems
relatively high, indicating a large distance between the mean
and standard deviation, therefore a large spatial distribution of
the aftershock magnitudes.

Variogram analysis and spatial distribution

of aftershocks
Variogram analysis

where c defines a constant closely related to the size of the

event. There should, however, specify the conditions of application of the relationship (6)
1. This relationship is applicable only if the law of
GutenbergRichter is verified.
2. This relationship has been established under the assumption that the seismic moment M0 and the surface
magnitude Ms are bound the equation log10M0 0cMs +d
with c01.5.
The evaluation of parameter c is then specified according
to the size of the event:

For small events: c01 so D03b

For intermediate events: c01.5 so D02b
For large events: c02 then 3b/2

The variogram analysis describes the continuity or the appearance of roughness of the data. It begins by calculating
an experimental variogram followed by a real model fitted
to the data.
The experimental variogram is calculated by averaging
one-half of the squared differences of the values over all pairs
of observations of a separation distance and direction data
(Houlding 2000; Webster and Oliver 2001). Graphically, the
variogram is presented in the form of a continuous curve. It
used to highlight an eventual clustering of data or a random
distribution of values of the studied variable (Guo and Ogain
1997).
Three main functions are commonly used in geostatistics to
describe the spatial correlation of observations (Fig. 14): the
correlogram, the covariance and the semi-variogram also called

Arab J Geosci

variogram. This last plays a fundamental role in geostatistics as

it is used to find a model of spatial correlation of data.
Variogram modelling
The mathematical form of variogram is a follows
g u; h

Nh
X
1
Zi  Z i h2
2N u; h i1

where (u, h) is the value of the experimental variogram for the

distance h, Z(i) and Z(i+h) are the recorded values at points i
and i+h, N(u,h) is the number of pairs of data in direction u
separated by a lag h. In the absence of reference to the direction
analysis we get the most commonly encountered formula
gh

1
2N h

N h
X

Zi  Z i h2

i1

Several models of variogram are available for analysing

spatial data, linear, exponential, Gaussian and spherical
models (Fig. 15).
In this study, we opted for the spherical model (Eq. 9)
because this model is adapted for data showing fluctuations
as is the sequence of aftershocks. The generalized mathematical model of a spherical variogram function (h) is as follows
8 h
 3 i
>
< C 32 ha  12 ha
C0 if h < a
gh C C0
9
if h > a
>
:
C0
if h 0
The spherical model shows a linear behaviour at small
separation distances near the origin but flattens out for larger
distances and reaches the sill level precisely at the range. An
efficient implementation of a variogram requires the following precautions: sensitivity to the choice of distance classes,
sensitivity to study area and sensitivity to anisotropy to fit
the adequate model.

Fig. 14 Compared variations of correlationvariance and semivariance curve

Fig. 15 The different kinds of variogram

Components of a variogram
The variogram is a graph which describes the variations of
the semi-variance versus separation distance. When the autocorrelation is included in the analysis, the curve of semivariance is located immediately below for the short distances of separation therefore a higher autocorrelation. The
semi-variance curve is characterized by three typical elements: a range, a nugget variance and a sill (Cressi 1991).
The nugget variance C0 is the intercept of the variogram
corresponding to a zero separation distance. The variogram
vs. the separation distance h is an increasing curve which
reaches its maximum at a specified value C. This value is
achieved for a value of the lag h0a called range. Beyond the
value of the range, the variogram follows a horizontal
asymptotical behaviour called sill (S). The total sill of the
variogram is C+C0 (Fig. 16).
Near the origin the parameter C0 estimates the continuity
of the phenomenon while the sill (S) characterizes the randomness of data so that the range a and the parameter C
characterizes the structural aspect of spatial distribution of
data. The level of irregularity of the data is highlighted by
the slope of the tangent line to the experimental variogram
including two or three points closest to the origin. Two
extremes cases can occur: for a near-vertical tangent the
data is assumed very irregular and at contrary for nearhorizontal tangent, the data has a greater regularity.

Fig. 16 Components of a variogram

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The discontinuities that can be observed near the origin in an

experimental variogram are purely random or may indicate
measurement errors. However, the discontinuities located far
from the range mean that the data show a maximum of
heterogeneities.
Variogram analysis of aftershock sequences
of Boumerdes earthquake
The variogram analysis that we advocate in this article will
serve mainly to corroborate the results stated above on the
spatial distribution of the magnitudes of aftershocks sequence (Boumerdes, May 21, 2003, earthquake).
The variogram model chosen is of spherical type (Eq. 9).
This option is determined because at least two reasons. The
spherical model provides facilities for reading and interpretation. It is located in an intermediate position compared
other existing models (exponential, Gaussian and linear
models; Fig. 15). The calculation and plotting of the variogram were performed utilizing GS+ software (Geostatistics
for the Environmental Sciences, version 0.1 Beta).
The fixed parameters are: lag-distance h01.89uniform
interval 0.19type isotropic variogram. The resulting isotropic
spherical variogram (Fig. 17) contains eight classes of variance
and it provides the following characteristic parameters: nugget
value C0 00.0036

Sill C0 +C00.27420
Proportion C0CC 0:98
Range a00.1230

It then becomes easy to find the equation of the spherical

model, so as
8
if h < 0:1230
< ah
gh 0:27420 if h > 0:1240
:
0:0036 if h 0

10

where
h
 h 3 i
ah 0:2706 0:1845h  0:5 0:1230

0:0036
The numerical value C0 +C00.27420 is simply the sample
variance. The analytical method of calculating the same

Fig. 17 Theoretical and experimental spherical variogram of the aftershock sequences of the Boumerdes earthquake

variance gave variance00.3042 (Fig. 2). We thus emphasize

the influence of the application of a variogram in the estimation of intrinsic parameters of the data series in particular
the hypothesis of strict stationarity.
The ratio of the nugget variance to the sill C0CC 0:98
may be interpreted as the percentage (here 98%) of the
global variance attributable to measurement errors or
micro-scale variations.
The range a00.1230 indicates the distance beyond which
the observations are uncorrelated. The nugget variance
C0 00.0036 is very close to zero. This relatively low vertical
jump of the variogram at the origin is an indicator of the
spatial continuity of the variable (magnitude) with a regular
variability. The dotted arrow in Fig. 17 shows the tangent
drawn at the origin to the variogram. Its horizontal form is
another indication of the regularity of the data.

Fractal variogram analysis of the aftershock sequences

In the correlative analysis of spatial data such as the sequence of aftershocks, one can observe that there is interdependence between the different approaches whose goal is the
same: extracting correlative information. For this and jointly
to variogram, the fractal method can be integrated into the
disciplines of spatial analysis of the data in particular the
calculation of the fractal dimension. At this point, variogram
and fractals converge towards a common goal: estimating the
fractal dimension. Thus, we introduce the concept of fractal
variogram.
Construction of fractal variogram
This alternative approach is based on the definition of the
so-called index of fractality a which depends on the behaviour of the variance function near the origin. This index is
directly accessible compared to the fractal dimension D.
Calculation of the index of fractality
The variogram (h) against h is calculated by projecting on
bi-logarithmic scales loglog. The fractal dimension D was

Fig. 18 Log (semi-variance) vs. log (separation distance)evaluation

of fractal dimension

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estimated from the slope coefficient a after the relationship

(11). This slope is determined using least squares regression
analysis
D2

a
2

11

Estimating the fractal dimension of the aftershock

sequences from the variogram
The choice of this method is justified by the quasi-linear
behaviour of the spherical variogram near the origin. The
estimation of fractal dimension using both the relationship
(11) and the slope of the line built as described above. Simultaneously using the relationship (11) and Fig. 18 we obtain the
following value of fractal dimension: D0 01.875 (Fig. 18). This
new value of the fractal dimension is different from that previously calculated using the b value. This indicates that although
the fractal dimension defines a fundamental parameter in the
analysis of time series it may lead to different interpretations as
well as the various approaches for its calculation.

Conclusion and future issues

Geostatistics provides a wide range of methods of exploration
and investigation of the spatial distribution of data such as the
aftershocks sequence following the occurrence of the main
shock of an earthquake. By its specific chronological position
between the occurrence of the major event and a probable
future earthquake, this sequence will be a special witness in
the seismological study of the considered region. The geostatistical investigation of the aftershocks sequence allows at
least two results: firstly estimating conventional seismological
parameters like b value and the Omoris exponent l and
secondly using precisely these first parameters to compute
secondary but nevertheless secondary parameters because
their role in the spatial correlation of data.
Among these parameters, we consider the fractal dimension D under all its forms and its interpretation. Other
statistical analysis tools are available. The statistical variogram is another indicator of the spatial distribution and
correlation of aftershocks. Contrarily to the calculation of
standard seismological parameters that we define as global,
the variogram is based on two criteria: firstly its nature
(spherical and many others) and size of the lag. Thus the
analysis becomes somewhere local because it is limited by
the size of the lag but in the same time progressive because
of the theoretical principle of the variogram construction. As
expected the recalculated value of the fractal dimension

using a bi-logarithmic representation of the variogram and

a least squares regression analysis, is different from that
estimated using the b value.
Future issues The spatial distribution of aftershock clouds
allows the detection of organized structures identifiable by
their position, size, position and direction of anisotropy. By
introducing the component of anisotropy in the sequence of
aftershocks, the correlation varies with the direction of observation. Thus the parameters can change substantially but
will be more meaningful and representative in the analysis
of the spatial distribution of data. This is an open problem
and our future issue will be to complete this study by adding
a component of anisotropy that encompass all the parameters calculated here above with the use of the concept of
azimuth in the anisotropic fractal variogram.

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