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to predict outcomes
Jennifer Chen, MD,a Elan Jeremitsky, MD,b Frances Philp, MS,a William Fry, MD,c and
R. Stephen Smith, MD,c Pittsburgh, PA, Lowell, MA, and Columbia, SC
Background. Rib fractures (RIBFX) are a common injury and are associated with substantial morbidity
and mortality. Using a previously published RIBFX scoring system, we sought to validate the system by
applying it to a larger patient population. We hypothesized that the RIBFX scoring system reliably
predicts morbidity and mortality in patients with chest wall injury at the time of initial evaluation.
Methods. A 3-year, registry-based, retrospective study involving 1,361 trauma patients was performed.
Patients were divided into two groups with a Chest Trauma Score (CTS) < 5 and $5 (n = 724 and
637, respectively). Each cohort was analyzed for specific outcomes (mortality, pneumonia, acute respiratory failure). CTS was defined by age, severity of pulmonary contusion, number of RIBFX, and the
presence of bilateral RIBFX with a maximum score of 12. Receiver operating characteristics were used to
determine the use of CTS $5 cut point.
Results. Patients with a CTS of 5 or more were (P # .05) older (61 vs 50 years), had greater Injury
Severity Scores (21.6 vs 16.2), and had a greater prevalence of pneumonia (10.1 vs 3.5%), tracheostomy (7.4 vs 2.9%), and mortality (9.0 vs 2.2%). Patients with CTS $ 5 had nearly 4-fold
increased odds of mortality (odds ratio 3.99, 95% confidence interval 1.928.31, P = .001) compared
with those who had CTS < 5.
Conclusion. A CTS of at least 5 is associated with worse patient outcomes. Increased vigilance is needed
with trauma patients who present with RIBFX and a CTS $ 5 at initial presentation. This simple
RIBFX scoring system may improve early identification of vulnerable patients and expedite therapeutic
interventions. (Surgery 2014;156:988-94.)
From the Division of Trauma, Surgical Critical Care and Acute Care Surgery, Department of Surgery,a Allegheny
General Hospital, Pittsburgh, PA; Department of General Surgery,b Lowell General Hospital, Lowell, MA; and
Department of Trauma and Critical Care,c University of South Carolina School of Medicine, Columbia, SC
988 SURGERY
Chen et al 989
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Volume 156, Number 4
1
2
3
0
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
0
2
990 Chen et al
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October 2014
Sensitivity %
Pneumonia
Specificity %
Sensitivity %
100
0
95.9
10.1
93.2
29.4
78.1*
55.0*
56.2
74.8
36.0
85.7
23.3
92.4
9.6
96.7
2.7
98.2
1.4
99.3
0
99.8
0.71 (CI 0.650.77)
Specificity %
Sensitivity %
100
0
95.5
10.1
86.5
29.2
71.9
55.0
43.8
74.3
28.1
85.4
15.7
92.1
9.0
96.7
6.7
98.4
0
99.2
0
99.8
0.65 (CI 0.590.70)
Specificity %
100
0
100
10.1
94.7
28.8
79.0
54.1
55.3
73.9
36.8
85.1
23.7
92.0
5.3
96.4
5.3
98.2
0
99.2
0
99.9
0.72 (CI 0.640.79)
*Statistical significance.
CI, Confidence interval; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.
Table III. Mortality by Chest Trauma Score* (total n = 1,361, with 73 mortality or 5.4%)
Mortality, %
No. patients
10
11
12
2.3
133
0.8
250
3.2
341
5.9
271
9.0
155
10.4
96
15.4
65
20.8
24
6.3
15
12.5
7
0
2
*P < .001.
CTS $ 5 (n = 637)
P value
50.1 18.6
2.2
16.2 9.6
3.5
1.4
1.4
1.1
46.4
26.7
3 IQR (16)
4 IQR (28)
3 IQR (23)
2.9
61.6 19.2
9.0
21.6 10.2
10.1
2.5
1.7
4.7
69.5
27.2
4 IQR (211)
7 IQR (413)
3 IQR (34)
7.4
<.001
<.001
<.001
<.001
NS
NS
<.001
<.001
.043
<.001
<.001
<.001
<.001
AIS, Abbreviated injury scale; CTS, Chest Trauma Score; ICU, intensive care unit; IQR, interquartile range; ISS, Injury Severity Score; NS, not significant.
DISCUSSION
There is no standardized method to assess the
severity of blunt chest trauma immediately after
the traumatic event. Therefore, there is an unmet
need for a simple scoring system to help categorize
patients into greater-risk groups. Pape et al7 found
that bilateral chest injury, lung contusions, and
number of RIBFX were associated with poor outcomes. They created a thoracic trauma severity
score using several patient variables and found
the thoracic trauma severity score was better at
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Chen et al 991
RIBFX scoring system but with a different CTS cutpoint ($5) based on ROC, we corroborated their
findings with similar predictors for mortality and
morbidity in a larger data set. By using CTS cutpoints defined by ROC, we were able to validate
their scoring system and incorporate the CTS $ 5
into the data analysis, as well as to simplify the coding by using one score to identify patients at risk
rather than have several different scores.
We compared the CTS with ISS by ROC analysis.
The ISS, although comprehensive, does, however,
appear to have substantial limitations. Because no
other general marker exists for injuries over the
course of the hospitalization, ISS was used in the
analysis and compared with CTS. The CTS was not
different from ISS in the outcomes studied by ROC
analysis. AIS chest and ISS were not predictors in
all the multivariable models, but the CTS was
992 Chen et al
Surgery
October 2014
P value
95% confidence
interval
3.99y
<.001y
1.928.31y
1.12
0.67
0.91
3.91
4.58
0.49
3.44
<.001
.043
<.001
.006
.058
.60
.055
1.091.15
0.450.99
0.860.96
1.4710.38
0.9522.01
0.037.14
0.9712.22
0.42
1.99
.27
.026
0.0901.96
1.093.67
4.43y
1.01
0.79
1.04
6.95
2.04
7.46
2.11
0.67
1.02
P value
.004y
.57
.35
.001
<.001
.30
.003
.20
.48
.96
Confidence
interval
1.6312.07y
0.971.05
0.471.30
1.021.08
3.0216.04
0.527.92
2.0327.48
0.686.60
0.222.06
0.462.26
Odd ratio
Chest Trauma
Score $5*
Injury Severity Score
AIS chest
Duration of stay
Mortality
Pulmonary embolus
Deep-vein thrombosis
Acute respiratory
failure
Tracheostomy
Abdominal trauma
2.04y
P value
Confidence
interval
0.021y
1.113.74y
1.03
0.94
1.07
2.11
0.59
0.69
5.53
0.014
0.74
<0.001
0.095
0.51
0.62
<0.001
2.36
1.21
0.027
0.50
1.001.06
0.671.32
1.051.10
0.885.05
0.132.79
0.163.04
2.4512.47
1.105.05
0.702.08
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REFERENCES
1. Brown SD, Walters MR. Patients with rib fractures. J Trauma
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2. Battle CE, Hutchings H, Evans PA. Risk factors that predict
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3. Brasel KJ, Guse CE, Layde P, et al. Rib fractures: relationship with pneumonia and mortality. Crit Care Med 2006;
34:6.
4. Sahr SH, Webb ML, Hackett Renner C, et al. Implementation of a rib fracture triage protocol in elderly trauma patients. J Trauma Nurs 2013;20:172-5.
5. Maxwell CA, Mion LC, Dietrich MS. Hospitalized injured
older adults. J Trauma Nurs 2012;19:168-74.
6. Pressley CM, Fry WR, Philp AS, et al. Predicting outcome of
patients with chest wall injury. Am J Surg 2012;204:910-4.
7. Pape HC, Remmers D, Rice J, et al. Apprasial of early evaluation of blunt chest trauma: Development of a standardized scoring system for initial clinical decision making.
J Trauma 2000;49:496-504.
8. Todd SR, McNally MM, Holcomb JB, et al. A multidisciplinary clinical pathway decreases rib fracture-associated
infectious morbidity and mortality in high-risk trauma patients. Am J Surg 2006;192:806-11.
9. Bergeron E, Lavoie A, Clas D, et al. Elderly trauma patients
with rib fractures are at greater risk of death and pneumonia. J Trauma 2003;54:3.
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elderly. J Trauma 2000;48:1040-6.
DISCUSSION
Dr Brian Harbrecht (Louisville, KY): As Dr Chen
mentioned, this is a follow-up study to a previous
publication looking at the scoring system, with
many of the same coauthors from that institution.
I agree completely with your conclusion that people who have bad chest trauma are going to do
worse. Im always humbled in terms of trying to
predict who exactly is going to do better and
worse. Some patients with one RIBFX are in
Chen et al 993
994 Chen et al
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October 2014