Real SCS Problem

1/13/2015
The Real South China Sea Problem: The Shadow of China | The National Interest Blog
THE BUZZ
The Real South China Sea Problem:

The Shadow of China
Michael McDevitt
January 12, 2015
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Linda Jakobson's recent report, China'sUnpredictableMaritimeSecurityActors, is

an important contribution for China watchers, especially for those who seek to
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-real-south-china-sea-problem-the-shadow-china-12015?page=show
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1/13/2015
understand the relationship between Chinese actions associated with its maritime
disputes in Asia and its broader strategic approach to the region. This relationship is
an important policy question because observers, including myself, worry that the
past two years of assertive behaviour in the East and South China Seas foreshadows
Beijing's approach its neighbourhood when fully risen.
Anxiety about heavy-handed Chinese hegemon-like behavior in the future has grown
because many observers believe China's approach to maritime disputes is the
product of a deliberate and systematic strategy carefully harmonized within China's
party-military-civil structure. In short, what the region has been experiencing is a
well thought out and superbly executed strategy.
Jakobson's report says not so fast, at least
with regard to maritime disputes.
She argues, persuasively, that there is no
evidence that China's recent actions in the
maritime domain are part of a grand strategy
China is pursuing to coerce its neighbors in a
tailored way aiming towards a pre-defined
goal. Her research convinces her that in
China there is enough policy implementation
flexibility for institutions with maritime interests (eg. local governments, law
enforcement agencies, the People's Liberation Army, resource companies, and
fishermen) to push their own agendas particularly in the South China Sea. This
results in more visibly assertive activity not specifically directed by Beijing. In short,
Jakobson does not find an organized top-down structured salami-slicing strategic
approach to China's maritime sovereignty disputes.
I found Jakobson's discussion of the interests of different Chinese entities (party,
state, provincial, law enforcement, commercial plus the media) helpful, and whether
or not one agrees with her conclusions regarding the absence of a comprehensive
strategy, those seeking a clearer understanding of the various Chinese institutional
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interests involved in the maritime domain should read this report with care. I am
working on a project related to President Xi Jinping's call for China to become a
maritime power, and found Jakobson's work extremely useful.
Based on my own experience in the US Government, I find Jakobson's argument
credible that various entities in China are pushing their own maritime interests while
remaining within broad, and often vague, policy guidelines established by Xi. That is
what good bureaucrats do. Within the US security establishment, hitching one's
bureaucratic interests to authoritative Administration policy guidelines is normal
procedure.
But in the US, if one goes too far and causes embarrassment or a political dust-up, it
can be professionally damaging. Jakobson seems to suggest that Xi and policy
makers at the highest level in China find it difficult to discipline entities that
announce or execute embarrassing or counterproductive stances associated with
safeguarding China's sovereignty in the maritime domain. I am not sure this
argument holds up, given what Xi is willing to take on in his anti-corruption
campaign.
But whether Jakobson is right or wrong, detailed plan or no detailed plan, China's
actions in the East and South China Seas have had strategic effects. China has
changed facts on the water to its advantage and at the same it has riven ASEAN on
South China Sea maritime issues. And it has apparently gained wide public support
with its tough stance on sovereignty claims.
However, from my perspective an argument can be made that the biggest strategic
effect has been negative for Beijing. It has energized the Obama Administration's
security relationship with the Philippines and encouraged most of China's
neighbours seek closer ties with the US. It has reawakened Indonesia's concerns
about the nine-dash line as well as its maritime frontier, and allowed Malaysia to
become a new favourite of the Obama Administration, signing it up as a
comprehensive partner.
So if Jakobson is right, will Xi and the Politburo Standing Committee come to the
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judgment that greater centralized control over its South China Sea actors is
necessary to redress the adverse strategic effects of China's approach? In other
words, will Beijing follow the first rule of trying to get out of a hole and stop digging?
Perhaps the digging has already stopped. The regional policies announced by Xi at
November's APEC and G20 summits suggest it may have. If the current smile
campaign with Southeast Asian neighbors continues, this would suggest that
Jakobson's analysis is correct, and the center is cracking down on counterproductive
activities.
Will this last, and is it a tactical or strategic change of policy aimed at assuaging
concerns raised over the last two years of assertive maritime policies?
My bet is on tactical, because I think Xi and company are not all that worried about
relations with China's neighbors. The realities of geography, military and vast
economic power yield China essentially permanent advantages over its near
neighbors. They are always going to live in the shadow of China, and their economies
will continue to be become more closely integrated with China's. China's neighbors
will always need Beijing more that it needs them. This leverage means that over the
long term, whether control is centralized or not, China's strategic approach to
maritime issues will leave little room for compromise.
RearAdmiral(Ret)MichaelMcDevitthasbeenattheCenterforNavalAnalyses
sinceleavingactivedutyin1997.DuringhisNavycareer,McDevittheldfouratsea
commands,includingcommandofanaircraftcarrierbattlegroup.HewasaChief
ofNavalOperationsStrategicStudiesGroupfellowattheNavalWarCollegeand
wasdirectoroftheEastAsiaPolicyOfficefortheSecretaryofDefenseduringthe
GeorgeH.W.BushAdministration.Healsoservedfortwoyearsasthedirectorfor
Strategy,WarPlansandPolicy(J5)forU.S.CINCPAC.McDevittconcludedhis34
yearactivedutycareerastheCommandantoftheNationalWarCollegein
Washington,D.C.
ThispiecefirstappearedintheLowyInterpreterhere.
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1/13/2015

The Real South China Sea Problem:

Linda Jakobson's recent report, China'sUnpredictableMaritimeSecurityActors, is

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Harvard Faculty Crimson Over Obamacare-Influenced

The Top 7 World Powers of All Time

Sorry, China: Japan Has the Better Claim over the

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