Shoenberger

The ability to make inferences about a population

based on characteristics of a sample is an important
goal of research
Inferential statistics help determine how much
confidence we can have in the inferences we make
Are these inferences real, or are they a product of
chance or error?

Example: Youve shown a group of males and

a group of females a new ad that your client is
considering using in an upcoming campaign

You have both groups rate the ad according

to how much they liked it.
Males:
Females:

Mean(Liking)=3.6
Mean(Liking)=3.0

 How much confidence can both the

researcher and the client have that these

differences reflect reality and are not a
function of random chance or error?
Inferential statistics allow you to determine

this confidence statistically

Inferential statistics rely on:

Probability Theory
Measures of Central Tendency
The Mean
Measures of Dispersion
Standard Deviation

MEAN: is useful for predicting future results

when there are no extreme values in the data
set.
MEDIAN: may be more useful than the mean
when there are extreme values in the data set
as it is not affected by the extreme values.
(house prices)
MODE: is useful when the most common
item, characteristic or value of a data set is
required. (book printing)

Gossip Girl has been praised for its use of

emerging artists music in its T.V. shows. The
shows producers want you to design an
experiment to determine whether a new
commercial for the show featuring music by
the Lumineers causes people to report more
positive attitudes towards the show.

What is your IV?

What is your DV?

Design a pretest-posttest with control

experiment you could use to investigate this
relationship.

Based on this design, how would you

determine whether this campaign is working?

Salary
23000
32000
20000

Frequency
3
5
1

Step 1:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 4:

State the hypotheses

Set the criterion for rejecting H0
Compute the test statistic
Make a decision about H0

VS
Sample Mean
liking: 4.1

Population mean
liking: 3.2

Have a large sample? (N>30) use z-test

Z test follows a normal distribution

Have a small sample? (N<30) use t - test

T-test follows a Students T-distribution
More flexible and used more often

You are testing the Budweiser horse

commercial to see how its ratings compare
with those of all previous Bud commercials.
Commercial: Bud
All Previous (population)
Mean(Liking):
4.1
3.2
Standard Dev:
1.2
Sample Size:
100

You are testing the Budweiser horse commercial

too see how its ratings compare with those of all
previous Bud commercials (the population of
previous commericals).
H0: Budweiser new commercial = All Previous
H1: Budweiser <> All Previous

Statistical Significance
Reflects the probability that the difference

between means occurred by chance

Typically 5% (.05)

Critical Value
The value of Z that must be exceeded in order to

determine a statistically significant difference

between means
+/-1.96

Commercial:
Mean(Liking):
Standard Dev:
Sample Size:

Formula:

Bud new All Previous

4.1
3.2
1.2
100

Z=7.5
Where does 7.5 fall on the Normal
Distribution?

Z=7.5
Critical Value=+/- 1.96
If H0 is true, it is not likely (.05) to observe a
sample mean (Budweiser) more than +/- 1.96
standard deviations from the hypothesized
value (All Previous)

Since the value of the test statistic (Z=7.5)

exceeds the critical value (+/- 1.96), the
probability that the difference between the
observed sample mean (Budweiser) and the
population mean (All Previous) is a result of
random chance is less than 5%.

Decision: Reject H0
Conclusion: The mean liking score of the new
Budweiser horse commercial is significantly
different from the mean liking score of all
previous Bud commercials.

Testing Hypotheses Continued

Know your standard deviation?

Have a large sample? (N>30) use z-test

Z test follows a normal distribution

Have a small sample? (N<30) use t - test

T-test follows a Students T-distribution
More flexible and used more often

You just got very exciting results back from a

drug trial! You are looking to see if a new drug
reduces fever better than a placebo.

Group 1: Control Group.

Average body
temperature of this
group?: 100

Group 2:
Experimental Group.
Average body
temperature of this
group?: 97.6

We use statistical tests to test our

hypotheses, in order to see how likely the
observed relationship between variables is
due to chance.

We never prove a Null Hypothesis or an

Alternative Hypothesis

 Step 1:

State the hypotheses

Step 2: Set the criterion for rejecting H0
Step 3: Compute the test statistic
Step 4: Make a decision about H0

A one-tailed test is conducted when

your hypothesis predicts that one mean
is greater than or less than another
mean.
Directional in one way or the other but not both

Or

You want to see if the new fever drug you are

testing was more effective than the placebo.

Temp of placebo group: 100

Temp of experimental group: 97

A two-tailed test is conducted when

your hypothesis predicts only a
significant difference between two
means.
Non-directional

You want to know if there is a statistically

significant difference between the means
below.

Historical mean grade of people in J4952 is: 92

Mean grade of this particular J4952: 96

The critical value of the test statistic (Z) for a

one-tailed test is different than that of a twotailed test:
Critical values at p=.05:
One-tailed test:

Two-tailed test:

1.65
1.96

Quality control
Allows comparison of small sample sizes
means

When your sample is under 30, or your responses

are not normally distributed, you perform a ttest
Used to compare a sample mean (x bar) and a
known population mean ()
The t-test is based on a different probability
distribution than the normal distribution

Test Statistic:

s=Sample Standard Deviation

Do this years Oregons freshmen study less

than previous years freshmen?
Group:
2012
Mean(hours/wk ): 3.4
Standard Dev:
.4
Sample Size:
25

Previous Years
3.9

 Step 1:

State the hypotheses

Step 2: Set the criterion for rejecting H0
Step 3: Compute the test statistic
Step 4: Make a decision about H0

Does this years Oregon freshmen study less

than previous years freshmen?

H0: 2012>All Previous (null)

H1: 2012<All Previous (alternative)

One or Two-Tailed Test?

Critical Value=-1.71

t=-6.25
Critical Value=- 1.71
If 2012 freshmen did not spend less time
studying than all previous freshmen (H0), it is
unlikely (.05) that the mean of 2012 would be
further than -1.71 standard deviations from
the mean of all previous grads.

Decision: Reject H0 (null)

Conclusion: 2012 freshmen spend less time
studying than freshmen from past years.

Test Statistic:

s2 =Sample Variance

Do males like the Bud Light Real Men of

Genius campaign better than do females?
Group:
Males
Females
Mean(Liking): 4.2
3.7
Variance:
1.6
1.4
Sample Size:
50
50

Do males like the Bud Light Real Men of

Genius campaign better than do females?
H0: Males<Females
H1: Males>Females

One or Two-Tailed Test?

Critical Value=1.65

Group:
Males
Mean(Liking): 4.2
Variance:
1.6
Sample Size:
50
Formula:

Females
3.7
1.4
50

Z=2.08
Critical Value=1.65
If males did not like the Bud Light campaign
more than females (H0), it is unlikely (.05) that
the Male sample mean would be more than
1.65 standard deviations from the Female
sample mean.

Decision: Reject H0
Conclusion: Males like the Bud Light Real
Men of Genius campaign better than
females do.

What am I comparing?
One-tailed or two-tailed?
Sample size?