12/28/2014

ReversingtheRevolution:Mubarak'sCourtCaseVindicatestheSaudiStrategyonEgypt|BrookingsInstitution

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BruceRiedel | November30,20148:31am

ReversingtheRevolution:Mubarak'sCourtCase
VindicatestheSaudiStrategyonEgypt

TheSaudiroyalfamilyundoubtedlywelcomedthedecisiontodropthechargesagainstHosni
Mubarakasavindicationoftheirstrategytoreversethe2011revolutioninEgyptandrestore
authoritarianmilitaryruleovertheirmostimportantArabally.TheSaudiswerehorrifiedwhen
Mubarakwastoppledin2011.TheEgyptiandictatorhadbeenaconsistentallyoftheKingdom
forthreedecadesevensendingtwodivisionstodefenditin1990whenIraqthreatenedtoattack.
TryinghimforrepressingdemonstrationssetanunwantedprecedentforotherArableaders.
TheKingdomsupportedthe2013coupimmediately,withtheKingpubliclyendorsingtheputsch
minutesafterittookplace.RiyadhhasorganizedtheGulfstatestobankrollthegenerals'regime
sinceatacostofbillions.GettingMubarakoutofprisonhasbeenaSaudipriorityeversince
thecoup.

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2014/11/30saudiarabiareactionegyptmubarakverdict

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12/28/2014

ReversingtheRevolution:Mubarak'sCourtCaseVindicatestheSaudiStrategyonEgypt|BrookingsInstitution

ThecoupreversedthemomentumoftheArabSpringandextinguishedthemostimportant
experimentinArabdemocracyever,twokeySaudigoals.ThedefeatoftheMuslimBrotherhood
wasanothermajorobjectiveforRiyadh.TheSaudisbelievethecoupsubstantiallyreducedthe
dangerofunrestinsidetheKingdombyterminatingadangerousrolemodel.
OfcoursetheSaudisnowowntheburdenofkeepingthegeneralsinoffice,anexpensive
propositionespeciallywhenoilpricesaredropping.KingAbdallah'sson,NationalGuard
commanderPrinceMitab,toldAsharqAlAwsatthisweekthattheKingdomwillstandinsolidarity
withPresidentAbdelFattahAlSisiand"legitimateinstitutions"inEgyptnomatterthecost.Mitab,
whohasjustreturnedtoRiyadhfromconsultationsinWashingtonwhichhesuggestedhadbeen
contentious,underscoredtheKingdom'sdeterminationtopreserve"regionalsecurity"and
stabilityagainsttheBrotherhoodandotherterrorists.

BruceRiedel
Director,TheIntelligenceProject
SeniorFellow,ForeignPolicy,CenterforMiddleEastPolicy,Centerfor21stCenturySecurityandIntelligence
BruceRiedelisseniorfellowanddirectoroftheBrookingsIntelligenceProject,partofBrookingsnewCenterfor
21stCenturySecurityandIntelligence.Inaddition,RiedelservesasaseniorfellowintheCenterforMiddleEast
Policy.Heretiredin2006,after30yearsofservice,fromtheCentralIntelligenceAgency,includingpostings
overseas.HewasalsoasenioradvisoronSouthAsiaandtheMiddleEasttothelastfourPresidentsofthe
UnitedStatesinthestaffoftheNationalSecurityCouncilattheWhiteHouse.Hewasalsodeputyassistant
secretaryofdefensefortheNearEastandSouthAsiaatthePentagonandasenioradvisorattheNorthAtlantic
TreatyOrganizationinBrussels.
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