12/30/2014

EgyptLookstoCutTiesWithUSinFavorofPutin'sRussiaNightWatchTownhallFinanceConservativeColumnistsandFinancialCommentary

DECEMBER 30, 2014

EgyptLookstoCutTies
WithUSinFavorofPutin's
Russia
NightWatch
2/15/201412:01:00AM

SouthKoreaNorthKorea:SouthKorearejectedNorthKorea'soffertotakeaseriesofstepsto
easetensionthatincludedcancelingSeoul'sregularmilitarydrillswithWashington.TheNorth
counteredthaton14FebruarythatPyongyangmusttakenucleardisarmamentstepsfirst.
TheNorth'sNationalDefenseCommissiononThursdayproposedthetwostateshaltmilitary
actionsandmutualvilificationtobuildbetterrelations.TheNorthindicated,however,itwould
maintainitsnuclearweaponsprogram.
SouthKorea'sdelegationsaiditwouldpressaheadwiththeannualexerciseswhichitsaidare
defensiveinnature.TheSouthdemandedthatNorthKoreatake"practical"actionsfornuclear
disarmamentifittrulywantspeaceonthepeninsula.
"NorthKoreashouldkeepinmindthattrustbetweenSouthandNorthKoreaissomethingthatcan
bedemonstratedwithaction,notbywords,"UnificationMinistryspokesmanKimEuidotold
reporters.
Comment:IftheNorthisseriousabouttheproposaltohaltmilitaryactions,thenSouthKorea
shoulddemandasign,suchasanearlyterminationoftheNorth'sWinterTrainingCycle,notjust
thesameolddemandfordenuclearization.TheWinterTrainingCyclerunsthroughtheendof
Marchforthegroundforces.
TheKoreanPeople'sArmysupportsatleastathirdofthecivilianpopulationthroughsupplychain
andfamilyeffects.Everyfulltimesoldiersupportsatleastthreeotherfamilymembers.Cancelling
thefinalmonthofwintertrainingwouldbeahighcostsignofNorthKorea'scommitmenttobetter
relationsandworthreciprocitybytheAllies.
TheNorth'snuclearweaponsandballisticmissileforcesarealotliketheFrenchforcedefrappeone
salvoinvengeancerightbeforetotalannihilationofthehomeland.However,thewintertraining
cycleofthenonmissileconventionalforceshasenormouslinkagesintoandimpactonthecivilian
workforce,thenonmilitaryeconomyandthecivilianfamilymembersofthesoldiers.
Aftertheannualharvestfestival,theextracivilianexertionsandpreparationsareessentialfora
successfulwintermilitarytrainingsurge.Forthecivilians,theresultisextrapay,rationsorbenefits.
Forthearmy,theresultisadequaterations,clothingandcreaturecomfortsandhighuse
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EgyptLookstoCutTiesWithUSinFavorofPutin'sRussiaNightWatchTownhallFinanceConservativeColumnistsandFinancialCommentary

consumablesforsuccessfulmilitarytraining.
MuchoftheNorthKoreaneconomywouldcollapseiftheKoreanPeople'sArmyfailedtotraininthe
winter,especiallybeforethewinterwheatharvest.IftheNorthisofferingtohaltitstraining,the
Southshouldcallitonthatoffer.
RussiaEgypt:Update.DuringEgyptianFieldMarshalelSisi'svisit,newsaccountsreported
remarksbyPresidentPutin,
Putinsaid:"Iknowthatyou,MisterDefenseMinister,havedecidedtorunforpresidentofEgypt.I
wishyouluckbothfrommyselfpersonallyandfromtheRussianpeople."
FieldMarshalSisisaid:"Ourvisitoffersanewstarttothedevelopmentofmilitaryandtechnological
cooperationbetweenEgyptandRussia.Wehopetospeedupthiscooperation."
Comment:ElSisihasnotannouncedinpublichisintentiontorunforthepresidency.Putin's
intelligencegavehimapoorbriefingonthistopicorPutindecidedtopressthecase.
WhatisimportantisElSisi'scomment.ItrepresentsaninvitationtotheRussianstocounter
Egypt'srelianceontheAmericans.Extensionofrightstoacompetitororadversaryisthedefinition
ofanonviolentthreattoUSpolicyoranoutrightpolicyfailure.
ToputelSisi'svisitinperspective,sincetheCampDavidaccordsin1978,Egypthasreceivedmore
USmilitaryaidthananycountryintheworldexceptIsrael.ElSisi'svisitisawatershedevent,even
iflittleimmediatebenefitresults.InanegativereactiontoUSpressures,EgypthasinvitedRussia
back.
ThisisthesecondmajorforeignpolicybreakthroughfortheRussiansintheMiddleEast.Thefirst
wastheSyrianchemicalweaponsdeal.RussianForeignMinisterLavrovisanimpressivestatesman.
Venezuela:Threepersons,includingonepoliceman,werekilledinCaracason12Februaryafter
theconclusionofalargestudentandoppositionleddemonstrationagainsttheMadurogovernment.
Thegovernmentandtheoppositionblamedeachother.Thegovernmentsaidthedemonstrators
weretryingtostageacoup.
Comment:HugoChavezandMadurohavepursuedsocialist,egalitarianpoliciesthathave
impoverishedoneoftherichestcountriesinSouthAmerica.Shortagesofbasiccommodities,
includingtoilettissue,arenowchronic.Inflationis56%.Unemploymentisover11%.Venezuelahas
gonethewayofCuba,inmanyrespects,withthesameconditionofoverallunderachievement.
Nevertheless,thegovernmentisinnodangerofoverthrow.Thesecurityandmilitaryforcesremain
loyaltothecentralgovernment.Thegovernment'spoliciesarepopularintheruralcountryside.
Theoppositionandstudentscangatherflashmobs,buthaveshownnoabilitytosustainpressure
againstthegovernmentcomparabletothecampsitesincentralKievintheUkraine.Theiranti
governmentmovementhaslittletractionoutsideuniversitiesandafewcities.Ithasnopurchase
amongthosewhobenefitfromgovernment'ssocialistpolicies.
Whenantigovernmentdemonstrationsbeginontheperipheries,sustainthemselvesandmove
towardsorlinkupwiththecenter,thenthegovernmentwillbeunderthreatofoverthrow.
EndofNightWatch
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