12/30/2014

SinaiCrisisBindsEgyptandIsrael

PublishedonTheWeeklyStandard(http://www.weeklystandard.com)

SinaiCrisisBindsEgyptandIsrael
TacitalliesagainstHamasfindcommoncauseoverunrulypeninsula.
OrenKessler
November7,20144:51PM
Lastweek,SinaibasedextremiststargetedtheNorthSinaisecurityheadquarterswithamassiveblast,causing
damage,butnoinjuries.Thankfullyitwasntareplayoftheattacklastmonththatkilled33securitypersonnelinsome
ofEgyptsworstviolencesincetheoverthrowofformerpresident,andMuslimBrotherhoodmember,MohamedMorsi
lastsummer.Thatcombinedcarbombandshootingattackcappedaweekthatalsosawseventroopskilledbya
roadsidebombandtwoIsraelisoldierswoundedinacrossbordershooting.Eventhoughthelatestattacksgivethelie
toCairosassurancesthatitwasbringingjihadinSinaitoheel,theypresageclosersecuritycooperationwithIsrael,are
alreadyclose.
ThefirstembersoftheSinaiinsurgencywerelitbythegeneralsecuritybreakdownthataccompaniedthefallofHosni
MubarakinFebruary2011.Theuprisingscurrent,blooddrenchedphase,however,wassparkedbythearmysJuly
2013overthrowofMorsi
Sincethatcoup,hundredsofsoldiersandsecurityforceofficershavebeenkilledinretributionattacks,bothinSinai
andsincelastyearontheEgyptianmainland.Inresponse,Egypthaswagedamilitarycampaignincludingair
strikesandgroundoperations,aswellasthedestructionof95%ofsmugglingtunnels(some1,600inall)tothe
HamasrunGazaStrip.Immediatelyfollowinglastmonthsattacks,Sisideclaredathreemonthstateofemergency
andhisforcesbegandestroyingorevacuatinghundredsofhomesinthehalfkilometerareaabuttingtheterritory.
Throughitall,Israelhasbeenanindispensablepartner.EvenduringtheheightofthissummersGazaconflict,the
EgyptianIsraeliblockadeofGazaenforcedsinceHamasforciblytookitoverin2007remainedintact.Allthroughout
thatwarduringwhichCairoandJerusalemworkedtogethertodraftceasefireproposalswithlittleinputfrom
WashingtonIsraeliofficialscommunicateddailywiththeirEgyptiancolleaguestotakeCairostemperature.Atleast
2,127Palestinianswereultimatelykilledinthefightingatleasthalfofthemciviliansandbothpartnersknewhigh
deathtollswouldeventuallyturnEgyptianpublicopiniontowardaceasefire.Throughout,Egyptcontinuedoperations
againstthetunnels,andkeptitslonecrossingtoGazamostlyclosedtopeopleandaid.
Israelhascomeundershootingorrocketattackatleast20timessinceMubaraksdeparture,buthasbeenreluctantto
conductoperationsonEgyptianterritorylestitjeopardizethe1979CampDavidAccords.Oneofthefewexceptions
camelastsummer,whenanIsraelidroneappearstohavestruckSinaimilitantswithEgyptspermissionand
conceivablyatitsbehest.
The1979treatystrictlyrestrictsthescopeandtypeofEgyptsmilitaryinstallationsintheSinai.Still,onmorethantwo
dozenoccasionssince2011,IsraelhasaccededtoEgyptianrequeststoexceedthetreatyslimits,includingthe
deploymentofU.S.suppliedApachehelicopterstoattackmilitantslikeAnsarBaytalMaqdis,theIslamicState
affiliatedgroupthathascarriedoutthebulkofattacksinSinai.Onahandfulofsuchoccasions,Egypthasdoneso
withoutIsraelipermissionincludingdeployingtanksinviolationofCampDavidpromptingtheIsraeliforeign
ministertowarnoftheslipperyslopeoftoyingwiththetreaty.Inresponse,Sisi(thenEgyptsdefenseminister)
reportedlycontactedhisIsraelicounterpartstoassuageanyfears.
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12/30/2014

SinaiCrisisBindsEgyptandIsrael

TheupsurgeinviolencehasalsoshakenIsraeloutofitsdecadeslongcomplacencyoveritsEgyptianborder.During
theMubarakera,thelanddefensesonthatfrontierIsraelslongestconsistedalmostentirelyoftowedartillery
(mostcontemporaryartilleryisselfpropelled)thatthecountryhaddevelopedinthe1970sfortheShahsIran.Since
2011,however,theIsraelishaveinstalledadvancedsurveillancetechnologyandcreatedanewShinBet(internal
security)unittaskedsolelywithmonitoringSinai.Thatprocesshasbeengivennewimpetusbylastmonthsattacks
Israelhasalreadydispatchedadditionalforcestothesitewhereitssoldierswereambushed.
Lastyear,moreover,IsraelcompletedafortifiedfencealongitsEgyptianborderinabidtocontroltheflowofasylum
seekersandeconomicmigrantsfromSubSaharanAfrica.HappilyfortheIsraelis,thefencehasalsotampeddownthe
threatofSinaiterrorism.Whiletheyears2011and2012sawanumberofmajorSinaibasedassaultsonIsrael,this
yearandlasthavebroughtnomajorcrossborderattacksfromthepeninsulauntillastmonth.
IsraelisecurityofficialsexplainthatsecuritycooperationwithEgyptisalreadycloserthanatanytimeinmemory,and
thelatestattacksinSinaiwillonlytightenthatintimacy.RatherthanapotentialcrisispointbetweenCairoand
Jerusalem,theyrepresentthebasisforfurthereffortstostabilizetheunrulypeninsulathatnotonlydividesthem,but
morethaneverunitesthemaswell.
OrenKesslerisdeputydirectorofresearchattheFoundationforDefenseofDemocracies.
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