Property Devt & InvtMalaysia

August 1, 2013

NOT RATED

LBS Bina Group

LBS MK / LBSB.KL

Current

Market Cap

Avg Daily Turnover

Free Float

RM1.33
N/A

Target

US$159.2m

US$1.36m

49.1%

Prev. Target

RM516.4m

RM4.23m

395.3 m shares

Up/Downside

N/A
N/A
Conviction|

Still deeply undervalued

CIMB Analyst(s)

LBS has finally re-rated after a long slumber, driven by the sale of its
China landbank. There are more catalysts in the pipeline including: 1)
potential special dividends; 2) ramp up of Malaysian operations; and
3) further unlocking of its final China asset.

Terence WONG, CFA

T (60) 3 2084 9689
E terence.wong@cimb.com

Company Visit
Channel Check

Expert Opinion
Customer Views

Share price info

Share price perf. (%)

1M

3M

12M

Relative

6.5

43

47.9

Absolute

6.4

46.2

56.5

Major shareholders

% held

Intelrich Sdn Bhd

50.9

LBS Bina is trading at a 74% discount

to its fully diluted RNAV/share of
RM5.05. Applying the same 40%
discount we used in our last note on
the company in 2012, which is wider
than the maximum 30% discount
used for bigger market cap property
stocks under our coverage, we derive
a value of RM3.03/share. This offers
an upside of over 100%.

China, China, China

LBS's share price has been in the
doldrums for nearly 10 years, since its
peak in 2003. It has finally started to
recover in recent months as the sale
of two parcels of land in China is close
to being finalised. We expect the deal
to be concluded by mid-Aug, when a
sizeable part of the HK$1.65bn sale
price is paid to LBS. The selling price
of HK$1.65bn, or RM681m, is more
than the entire market cap of LBS.

Dividends and land buys

LBS will use part of the proceeds to
reward long-suffering shareholders
via a special dividend. As payment for
the land is staggered over five years,
we believe the combined special

Vol m

Price Close

dividend plus the normal dividend

should provide investors an annual
net dividend yield of 6-7%. This will
be significantly higher than the 3-4%
range for property developers under
our coverage. LBS will use the bulk of
the China land sale proceeds to pare
down gearing and to replenish its
landbank as it refocuses its attention
on the domestic property market. We
believe this is the right thing to do as
the outlook for the Malaysian
property market remains bright.

Another valuable piece of

land in China
Beyond the first two parcels of land in
China, LBS owns a third piece and
arguably the most valuable piece. It
sits right next to the first two parcels
and is designated for commercial
purposes. At 264 acres, LBS's 60%
stake in the land is conservatively
worth RM741m if we peg it to the
residential land value from the first
two parcels. If we peg it to
commercial land value in Zhuhai,
which is 50-100% higher, the land
could be worth RM1.1bn-1.5bn.

Relative to FBMKLCI (RHS)

1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
50
0.7
40
30
20
10

169
159
149
139
129
119
109
99
89

Aug-12
Nov-12
Source: Bloomberg

Feb-13

May-13

EFAPChartPriceVolRelDaily|

52-week share price range

1.33
1.46

0.84

Current

SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
Designed by Eight, Powered by EFA

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

1. BACKGROUND
1.1 Breaking out at last
We first wrote about LBS in 2006 when the company secured three parcels of
landbank measuring a combined 825 acres in Zhuhai, China. At that time we
thought the announcement would rerate the stock as investors had waited
several years for it to materialise. But that was not the case and the stock
continued to languish. We revisited LBS in 2011 after the group restrategised its
activities and shifted its focus to Malaysia with more emphasis on the
mid-to-high end residential market. It also sought to unlock the value of its
China landbank through an outright sale.
In 2012, the sale of the China landbank became a reality as the company signed
an MOU with Jiuzhou Development Company Ltd to sell its stake in Dragon
Hill Corporation Ltd for up to HK$1.65bn. Dragon Hill Corp owns 60% of a
197-acre mixed development land as well as a 338-acre golf course. Jiuzhou had
six months to undertake due diligence on Dragon Hill but had to extend the
completion date by another six months. The sales & purchase agreement was
finally signed on Apr 10 this year, but it was only after the 13th general elections
that LBS's share price started to re-rate significantly.

Figure 1: LBS share price since IPO

1.98
1.78
1.58
1.38
1.18
0.98
0.78
0.58
0.38

1/30/2002
5/2/2002
7/25/2002
10/16/2002
1/20/2003
4/22/2003
7/17/2003
10/9/2003
1/8/2004
4/8/2004
7/2/2004
9/24/2004
12/22/2004
3/22/2005
6/16/2005
9/8/2005
12/5/2005
3/7/2006
6/1/2006
8/23/2006
11/20/2006
2/15/2007
5/16/2007
8/7/2007
10/31/2007
1/30/2008
4/28/2008
7/23/2008
10/20/2008
1/16/2009
4/17/2009
7/10/2009
10/6/2009
12/31/2009
3/31/2010
6/23/2010
9/17/2010
12/14/2010
3/15/2011
6/8/2011
9/2/2011
11/30/2011
3/1/2012
5/25/2012
8/16/2012
11/16/2012
2/19/2013
5/15/2013

0.18

LBS

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2. OUTLOOK
2.1 More to look forward to
We believe the re-rating is just the start of more good news to come. The long
wait for the firm to unlock the value of its landbank in China is finally coming to
fruition and there are significant implications. Firstly, the selling price of
HK$1.65bn, or RM681m (RM1.76/share), is more than the entire market cap of
LBS. The sale proceeds will have three key implications on LBS: 1) it will likely
lead to higher dividends over the next few years; 2) it will provide ammunition
for the group to add landbank domestically; and 3) it will raise the question as
to what LBS will do with its last tract of land in China.

2.2 Special dividends?

The two parcels of land in Zhuhai sold are: 1) 197 acres of mixed development
land; and 2) the 338-acre Lakewood Golf Club. The development land was
valued by Colliers International (HK) Ltd at RM922m, or RM107 psf, while the

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

golf course was valued at RM207m, or RM14 psf. LBS managed to sell the two
parcels of land for a slightly higher combined price of HK$1.65bn, or RM681m.
On completion of the sale later this month, LBS will be paid:
1) HK$500m, or RM206m, in cash;
2) 225.5m shares in Zhuhai Holdings Investment Group Ltd (ZHIG) at
HK$1.33 worth HK$300m, or RM124m; and
3) promissory notes of HK$850m, or RM351m, staggered over four years.

Figure 2: Valuation of China landbank by Colliers International

Development land
Lakewood Golf Club

HK$ m

RM m

2,232.3

921.7

501.2

206.9

Total

2,733.5

1,128.6

LBS's 60% stake

1,640.1

677.2
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 3: Promissory notes

On or
before

HK$ m

RM m

31-Dec-14

250

103.23

31-Dec-15

200

82.58

31-Dec-16

200

82.58

31-Dec-17

200

82.58

Total

850

350.97
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

There is no moratorium on LBS's stake in the HK-listed ZHIC (previously

known as Jiuzhou Development Company Ltd) but it believes the stock is
significantly undervalued and will only sell at the right price. Technically LBS
can pay out as special dividend of 53 sen/share from the RM206m cash
proceeds and another 21-27 sen/share annually for the next four years from the
conversion of RM83m-103m worth of promissory notes, but we believe the
group will conserve its cash proceeds to pare down its gearing and to buy more
land. LBS has RM373m in total borrowings, or gearing of 0.8x (net gearing of
0.65x) which can be brought down to 0.36x when the first tranche of cash
proceeds is received. We believe LBS will aim to reward shareholders with a
total net dividend yield of around 6-7% over the next 4-5 years, which will be
higher than the average of 3-4% for the developers under our coverage.

2.3 Acquiring new landbank

LBS is refocusing its efforts on property projects in Malaysia. It is targeting to
double its net profit by 2015. In the past five years, new sales have surged many
fold from a low of RM107m in 2008 during the global financial crisis to a
record RM871m last year. To ensure the growth in sales and profit is sustained,
LBS needs to continuously acquire new landbank. At present, the group has
RM15bn worth of undeveloped GDV. Its key projects are located mainly in
Selangor, Cameron Highlands and Johor. The company is eyeing more
landbank particularly in the Klang Valley and Iskandar Malaysia. By increasing
its footprint and size in Malaysia, LBS may eventually become too big for the
investment community to ignore.

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

Figure 4: Landbank in Malaysia (acres)

On-going

Future

Total

247

692

939

44%

28

187

215

10%

406

406

19%

39

523

562

26%

314

1,808

2,122

100%

Klang Valley
Pahang
Perak

Johor

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 5: Landbank and undeveloped GDV

Acres

GDV (RM m)

Bandar Saujana Putra, Selangor

221

4,920

32%

D'Island, Puchong, Selangor

115

2,543

17%

86

2,257

15%

522

1,351

9%

Tengkolok, Cameron Highlands

38

685

4%

Kompung Raja, Cameron Highlands

30

536

4%

500

3%

24

449

3%

Land in Ipoh, Perak

376

425

3%

Taman Greenhill, Shah Alam, Selangor

150

421

3%

58

377

2%

357

2%

100

296

2%

Taman Tasik Puchong Phase 2, Selangor

48

92

1%

Puncak Jelapang Maju, Perak

30

27

0%

1,808

15,236

100%

The Centrum, Cameron Highliands

Bandar Putera Indah, Batu Pahat, Johor

Iskandar Malaysia zone A

Golden Hills

Usaha Semarak
Taman Royal Lily, Cameron Highlands
Desiran Bayu@Puchong, Selangor

Total

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

Figure 6: Sales trend

1000

600,000

900
500,000

800

700

400,000

600
500

300,000

400
200,000

300
200

100,000

100

0
FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

New sales (RM m)

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

Avg price (RM)

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

2.4 One more China landbank

Beyond the first two parcels of land in China, LBS owns a third piece and
arguably the most valuable piece. The land is currently the Zhuhai International
Circuit (ZIC) and LBS can exercise its option to acquire the land for US$1,
similar to what it did for the first two parcels. ZIC sits right next to the first two
parcels of land sold and is designated for commercial purposes. Measuring 264
acres, the 60% stake in the land is conservatively worth RM741m based on the
value (RM107 psf) of the 197-acre mixed development land sold. If we peg it to
the commercial land value in Zhuhai, which is easily 50-100% higher, the 60%
stake in the land will be worth RM1.1bn-1.5bn. LBS is still not decided on what
4

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

to do with the ZIC land, but plans to exercise the option in 2014 to acquire the
land so that it will be on the company's books. With ZHIG planning to launch
developments on the two parcels of land acquired from LBS next year, land
values in the area can be expected to appreciate further.

Figure 7: Site of Zhuhai landbank

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

3. RISKS
3.1 China slowdown
The property market in China will be affected by the economic performance of
the country. China's economic slowdown could dampen the sentiment for
properties in general. The value of LBS's final landbank in Zhuhai will also be
affected by the macroeconomic outlook and policies. But LBS is in no hurry to
develop the land or sell it outright. In fact, it stands to benefit from the
construction of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Link Bridge that is slated for
completion in 2016. The 29km bridge costing RM36bn will cut short the
travelling time from Hong Kong substantially and should be a boon to property
values. It now takes over an hour by flight and over three hours by road from
Hong Kong to Zhuhai, but with the bridge the travelling time will be reduced to
only 30 minutes.

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

Figure 8: Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Link Bridge

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

3.2 Malaysia to curb speculation?

Bank Negara Malaysia recently imposed measures to curb consumer debt
including reduction of the maximum housing loan tenure from 45 years to 35
years. This is to avoid excessive household indebtedness. There were also press
reports that the central bank was studying the risks arising from the developer
interest-bearing scheme (DIBS) with a view of potentially imposing curbs on it.
Curbing DIBS would negatively affect the sentiment for properties in the short
term. But given the strong fundamentals of the residential sector, with
affordability close to the best levels ever seen, the transaction volume and
property prices should remain firm over the longer term.

Figure 9: Policies to curb speculation

Date

Policy

Oct-09

Reintroduction of RPGT at 5% for first five years

Nov-11

Loan-to-value ratio for 3rd property capped at 70%

Oct-11

RPGT raised to 10% for first two years

Jan-12

Loan eligibility based on net pay and not gross pay

Oct-12

RPGT raised by 5%pts for all five years

Jul-13

Housing loan tenure capped at 35 years from 45 previously

SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

Figure 10: Affordability index for Malaysia

Figure 11: Affordability index for the Klang Valley

4.50

4.50

4.00

4.00

3.50

3.50

3.00

3.00

2.50

2.50

2.00

2.00

1.50

1.50

1.00

1.00

0.50

0.50

0.00

0.00

SOURCES: CIMB, BNM, DOS, PMR, MOF

SOURCES: CIMB, BNM, DOS, PMR, MOF

4. VALUATION
4.1 Significant implications
The conclusion of the China landbank sale is important to LBS on so many
levels. Firstly, the company's credibility is greatly enhanced as frustrated
investors had waited a long time for the China assets to be unlocked. Investors
should now start to give LBS the benefit of the doubt and take a closer look at
its fundamentals. Secondly, the sale sets a benchmark for how to value the last
parcel of land in Zhuhai, which we believe is worth far more than the entire
market cap of LBS. Finally, the sale proceeds will give the group a significant
shot in the arm in terms of rewarding shareholders with annual special
dividends for the next five years. Finally, LBS will now have ammunition for
further land purchases in the domestic market and that can put the company
back on investors' radar screen.

4.2 Deep value property stock

LBS has finally started to re-rate but is still a long way off its underlying value.
Based only on the Malaysian operations, we get a fully diluted RNAV/share of
RM3.68. LBS is trading at a 74% discount to the RNAV of its Malaysian
operations, far wider than its bigger peers. Including the conservative RM741m
(RM1.92/share) value of the last parcel of land in China, LBS's RNAV jumps to
RM5.05. Applying a 50-100% premium to mixed development land in Zhuhai
to better approximate the value of commercial land will boost the RNAV by a
hefty RM1.1bn-1.5bn (RM2.85-RM3.88/share) to RM5.74-6.42.

Figure 12: Discount to RNAV and NTA

Share price

RNAV/shr

(Discount)/

NTA/shr

(Discount)/

(RM)

(RM)

Premium

(RM)

Premium

E&O

1.99

3.10

-35.8%

1.23

61.8%

Mah Sing

2.44

3.16

-22.8%

1.27

92.1%

SP Setia

3.34

3.99

-16.3%

2.12

57.5%

UEM Land

2.68

3.89

-31.1%

1.28

109.4%

UOA Dev

2.43

3.06

-20.6%

1.74

39.7%

0.88

51.1%

Average
LBS

-25.3%
1.33

5.05

-73.7%

72.1%
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

In our last note in May 2012, we valued LBS at RM2.00 based on a 40%
discount to its RNAV. At that time, we had completely excluded the value of the
last parcel of land in China. Given that the sale of the first two parcels will be
concluded shortly, we believe the value of the third parcel should now be
included. Based on the same 40% discount to RNAV, wider than the maximum
30% discount used for developers under our coverage, LBS shares are worth
RM3.03. This provides investors an upside of 128%. If we assume the last
Zhuhai land is worth RM1.1bn-1.5bn, LBS will be worth a higher RM3.44-3.85.
Lastly, as LBS will recognise a one-off profit of RM309.3m from the sale of the
two parcels, reserves of the group will increase to RM388m, sufficient for the
company to propose a 1-for-1 bonus.

Figure 13: LBS Bina Group Bhd - RNAV

Eff.

Value

Area (sq. ft.)

(RM psf)

Price

Stake

(RM m)

221.0 ac

9,626,760

25.00

100.0%

240.7

48.0 ac

2,090,880

10.00

100.0%

20.9

Shah Alam, Selangor

150.0 ac

6,534,000

20.00

70.0%

91.5

Desiran Bayu

Puchong, Selangor

100.0 ac

4,356,000

10.00

100.0%

43.6

D'Island

Puchong, Selangor

115.0 ac

5,009,400

70.00

100.0%

350.7

Chemor Land

Mukim Hulu Kinta, Perak

374.4 ac

16,309,735

5.00

71.0%

57.9

Bandar Putera Indah

Batu Pahat, Johor

522.0 ac

22,738,320

5.00

100.0%

113.7

Zone A

Iskandar Malaysia, Johor

1.0 ac

43,560

650.00

100.0%

28.3

Mixed development

Ipoh, Perak

31.6 ac

1,375,625

15.00

100.0%

20.6

Bukit Cherakah

Mukim Bukit Raja, Daerah Petaling

58.4 ac

2,541,726

30.00

35.0%

26.7

The Centrum

Cameron Highlands

86.0 ac

3,746,160

30.00

100.0%

112.4

Tengkolok

Cameron Highlands

38.0 ac

1,655,280

35.00

100.0%

57.9

Kampung Raja

Cameron Highlands

30.0 ac

1,306,800

35.00

100.0%

45.7

Taman Golden Hill

Cameron Highlands

24.0 ac

1,045,440

35.00

100.0%

36.6

Taman Royal Lily

Cameron Highlands

9.0 ac

392,040

40.00

100.0%

15.7

Race track

Jingding Town, Zhuhai, China

264.0 ac

11,499,840

107.40

60.0%

741.0

Type

Location

Bandar Saujana Putra

Selangor

Taman Tasik Puchong

Puchong, Selangor

Taman Greenhill

Size/units

Proceeds from sale of 2 China properties

681.0

Investment property + associates

66.2

Net current assets less dev. prop.

217.3

Long term liabilities

(349.4)

Total RNAV

2,619.0

No. of shares (m)

395.3

RNAV per share (RM)

6.63

Warrants @ RM1

154.1

F. diluted RNAV per share (RM)

$5.05
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

Figure 14: Sector Comparison

Company
Bukit Sembawang Estates
CapitaLand
CapitaMalls Asia
City Developments
Fraser & Neave
Global Logistic Properties
Ho Bee Investments
Keppel Land
Overseas Union Enterprise
Singapore Land
UOL Group
Wheelock Properties (S)
Wing Tai Holdings
Singapore average

Bloomberg
Ticker
BS SP
CAPL SP
CMA SP
CIT SP
FNN SP
GLP SP
HOBEE SP
KPLD SP
OUE SP
SL SP
UOL SP
WP SP
WINGT SP

Recom.
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Neutral
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Neutral
Underperform

Price
Tgt Px
(local curr) (local curr)
6.18
7.41
3.23
3.91
2.00
2.21
10.63
11.19
5.62
6.53
2.84
3.35
2.19
2.52
3.69
4.00
2.83
3.29
9.14
8.52
6.98
7.91
1.83
1.95
2.13
2.10

Mkt Cap
Core P/E (x)
RNAV Prem./(Disc.) P/BV (x) Div. Yield (%)
(US$ m) CY2013 CY2014 CY2013 to RNAV (%) CY2013
CY2013
13.1
13.1
10.58
-42%
1.40
2.7%
1,255
21.4
15.3
4.89
-34%
0.88
2.6%
10,791
27.9
23.3
2.46
-19%
1.14
1.8%
6,093
18.7
14.4
13.17
-19%
1.31
1.4%
7,585
14.4
11.5
7.60
-26%
1.01
3.2%
6,354
34.0
29.2
3.35
-15%
1.25
1.8%
10,606
9.8
9.8
3.09
-29%
0.86
2.3%
1,166
13.6
11.2
5.00
-26%
0.85
2.2%
4,476
27.4
22.5
4.11
-31%
0.87
1.8%
2,021
16.4
14.6
14.20
-36%
0.72
2.2%
2,958
14.3
13.1
9.89
-29%
0.83
1.7%
4,220
26.4
14.4
2.60
-30%
0.70
3.3%
1,718
7.4
7.4
2.80
-24%
0.76
4.0%
1,310
18.8
15.4
-28%
0.99
2.2%

Agile Property
China Overseas Grand Oceans
China Overseas Land
China Resources Land
Evergrande Real Estate
Franshion Properties
Guangzhou R&F
KWG Property Holding
Longfor Properties
Poly Property
Shimao Property
Shui On Land
Sino-Ocean Land
SOHO China
Yuexiu Property
China/Hong Kong average

3383 HK
81 HK
688 HK
1109 HK
3333 HK
817 HK
2777 HK
1813 HK
960 HK
119 HK
813 HK
272 HK
3377 HK
410 HK
123 HK

Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Neutral
Outperform
Neutral
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Outperform

8.15
9.21
22.35
21.30
3.08
2.48
12.06
4.45
11.86
4.21
16.34
2.32
3.97
6.35
1.96

9.95
13.25
25.65
26.50
3.10
3.18
11.98
6.62
15.60
7.15
20.45
2.94
4.95
6.45
2.49

3,623
2,710
23,553
16,010
6,366
2,930
5,011
1,660
8,321
1,978
7,317
2,394
3,006
3,952
2,353

4.5
7.6
9.6
13.1
4.9
8.1
5.5
4.3
8.9
5.8
7.5
14.6
6.1
8.2
9.0
8.2

4.0
5.6
8.2
10.0
3.9
6.2
5.0
3.8
7.5
5.0
5.7
12.2
5.2
16.9
6.9
6.9

19.90
15.59
0.00
29.41
9.03
5.31
19.97
11.04
22.35
11.91
29.51
5.87
9.91
9.99
4.97

-59%
-41%
na
-28%
-66%
-53%
-40%
-60%
-47%
-65%
-45%
-61%
-60%
-36%
-61%
-47%

0.77
2.01
1.78
1.64
0.78
0.73
1.01
0.60
1.47
0.53
1.14
0.42
0.44
0.79
0.63
1.09

5.1%
1.3%
2.1%
2.1%
0.0%
2.6%
6.3%
6.1%
2.3%
5.2%
4.3%
2.4%
6.4%
4.9%
3.9%
2.8%

Alam Sutera
Bekasi Fajar
Bumi Serpong Damai
Ciputra Development
Ciputra Property
Lippo Karawaci
Metropolitan Land
Summarecon Agung
Surya Semesta Internusa
Indonesia average

ASRI IJ
BEST IJ
BSDE IJ
CTRA IJ
CTRP IJ
LPKR IJ
MTLA IJ
SMRA IJ
SSIA IJ

Outperform
Neutral
Neutral
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform

700
610
1,580
1,150
920
1,280
480
1,000
940

1,050
720
1,600
1,700
1,250
1,850
700
1,300
1,700

1,341
573
2,695
1,700
552
2,880
355
1,407
431

7.4
5.5
13.6
15.1
9.2
15.1
13.5
12.3
4.7
11.1

5.9
4.6
13.4
13.6
7.1
16.1
9.2
10.3
4.2
9.9

2,185
na
2,677
2,147
2,749
2,249
1,198
2,123
1,705

-68%
na
-41%
-46%
-67%
-43%
-60%
-53%
-45%
na

2.26
2.21
2.85
2.72
1.30
2.38
2.08
3.16
1.88
2.44

3.9%
2.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.6%
1.1%
1.1%
1.7%
3.7%
1.6%

Eastern & Oriental

KLCC Property Holdings
Mah Sing Group
SP Setia
UEM Sunrise Bhd
UOA Development
Malaysia average

EAST MK
KLCCSS MK
MSGB MK
SPSB MK
UEMS MK
UOAD MK

Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Neutral
Outperform
Outperform

1.99
6.56
2.44
3.34
2.68
2.43

2.48
8.00
3.48
3.59
4.28
2.76

679
3,651
1,021
2,531
3,593
952

15.0
19.6
11.5
16.8
21.2
9.0
16.7

12.7
18.7
9.6
15.3
18.8
7.8
14.9

3.10
6.42
3.16
3.99
3.89
3.16

-36%
2%
-23%
-16%
-31%
-23%
-16%

1.53
1.61
1.85
1.55
2.04
1.36
1.69

2.0%
4.8%
3.5%
3.1%
1.5%
5.3%
3.3%

Amata Corporation
Ananda Development
AP (Thailand) PCL
Hemaraj
Land And Houses
LPN Development
Pruksa Real Estate
Quality Houses
Sansiri Public Co
Supalai PCL
Thailand average

AMATA TB
ANAN TB
AP TB
HEMRAJ TB
LH TB
LPN TB
PS TB
QH TB
SIRI TB
SPALI TB

Outperform
Outperform
Neutral
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Outperform
Neutral

16.90
2.56
5.85
3.30
10.10
21.30
18.80
2.72
2.68
15.50

32.20
4.90
9.03
4.14
9.19
30.63
40.22
5.38
5.88
20.31

575
272
533
1,021
3,229
1,002
1,332
797
815
848

9.2
6.0
7.1
11.3
23.0
11.2
7.9
9.7
6.8
8.3
10.7

7.9
4.7
5.5
10.4
19.0
9.7
7.0
7.6
5.4
7.2
8.9

21.77
2.26
7.00
2.80
6.00
7.40
12.54
3.60
2.48
9.05

-22%
13%
-16%
18%
68%
188%
50%
-24%
8%
71%
35%

1.80
1.28
1.17
2.85
3.26
3.13
1.72
1.46
1.38
1.77
2.05

4.4%
0.0%
5.6%
4.2%
4.5%
4.4%
3.8%
5.5%
7.3%
4.8%
4.7%

SOBHA IN
OBER IN
UT IN
DLFU IN

Outperform
Outperform
Underperform
Underperform

289.0
200.9
16.45
149.8

460.0
285.0
20.00
190.0

469
1,092
712
4,418

10.8
11.7
13.5
26.4
18.7

8.3
9.8
9.1
19.0
14.0

na
na
na
na

na
na
na
na
na

1.15
1.46
0.37
0.90
0.84

1.2%
1.4%
0.0%
1.3%
1.2%

ALI PM

Outperform

30.10

25.70

9,817

40.7
40.7

35.6
35.6

na

na
na

4.89
4.89

1.0%
1.0%

11.6

9.8

NA

1.18

2.5%

Sobha Developers Ltd

Oberoi Realty Ltd
Unitech Ltd
DLF Ltd
India average
Ayala Land Inc.
Philippine average
Average (all)

SOURCES: CIMB, BLOOMBERG, COMPANY REPORTS

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

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10

LBS Bina Group

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11

LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

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Recommendation Framework #1 *
Stock
Sector
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.
expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected
benchmark's total return.
to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.
expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant
TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.
expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant
TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.
expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand, Jakarta Stock Exchange, Australian Securities
Exchange, Taiwan Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange of India/Bombay Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside
the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)

Recommendation Framework #2 **
Stock
Sector
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 12
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
months.
high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over
the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -10% and +10% over the next 12
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i)
months.
an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% (or better)
or -10% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns
that will range from +10% to -10%; both over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12
UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
months.
high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over
the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 10% or more over the next 3
TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
months.
high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +10% or better over
the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 3
TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
months.
high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -10% or worse over
the next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Korea Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted
for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2012.
AAV not available, ADVANC - Excellent, AEONTS Good, AMATA - Very Good, ANAN not available, AOT - Excellent, AP - Very Good, BANPU - Excellent , BAY - Excellent , BBL
- Excellent, BCH not available, BCP - Excellent, BEC - Very Good, BGH - not available, BJC Very Good, BH - Very Good, BIGC - Very Good, BTS - Excellent, CCET - Good,
CENTEL Very Good, CK - Very Good, CPALL - Very Good, CPF - Very Good, CPN - Excellent, DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, EGCO Excellent, ERW Excellent,
GLOBAL - Good, GLOW - Very Good, GRAMMY Excellent, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ - Excellent, HMPRO - Very Good, INTUCH Very Good, ITD Very Good, IVL - Very
Good, JAS Very Good, KAMART not available, KBANK - Excellent, KK Excellent, KTB - Excellent, LH - Very Good, LPN - Excellent, MAJOR - Good, MAKRO Very Good,
MCOT - Excellent, MINT - Very Good, PS - Excellent, PSL - Excellent, PTT - Excellent, PTTGC - Excellent, PTTEP - Excellent, QH - Excellent, RATCH - Excellent, ROBINS - Excellent,
RS Excellent, SAMART Excellent, SC Excellent, SCB - Excellent, SCC - Excellent, SCCC - Very Good, SIRI - Good, SPALI - Very Good, SRICHA not available, SSI not
available, STA - Good, STEC - Very Good, TCAP - Very Good, THAI - Excellent, THCOM Very Good, TICON Very Good, TISCO - Excellent, TMB - Excellent, TOP - Excellent,
TRUE - Very Good, TTW Very Good, TUF - Very Good, VGI not available, WORK Good.

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LBS Bina Group

August 1, 2013

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