Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Seismic bargain
We initiate coverage on Dolphin Group (DOLP) with a Strong Buy rating and a target
price of NOK 5.50. DOLP is a start-up, full-range marine geophysical company with attractive time-charters for high-end seismic vessels and an experienced management
team in place. A low cost base makes DOLP profitable in the current market while offering full exposure (and considerable earnings growth potential) to a market recovery.
Oil Service
Rating: Strong Buy
Target price: 5.50 NOK
Experienced management team. DOLP was founded and managed by the former management of Wavefield Inseis and Veritas DGC. The core team has an impressive trackrecord including the creation of Wavefield Inseis, which went from scratch to operating six
vessels working for BP, Statoil, Petrobras, ONGC etc. in just 3 years, before the company
was acquired by CGG Veritas for NOK 2.1bn in 2008.
Combined with attractive vessel charters. DOLP has secured a fleet of three cost efficient vessels on flexible time-charters from RISH. The companys two high-end vessels
(delivery in April 2011 and March 2012) are among the top 7 vessels in the industry with
14 streamer capacity and 200 tons bollard-pull. Their ability to operate on heavy fuel provides a cost advantage only matched by PGS. The company has also chartered a 2D vessel which will commence a larger MC project during 2q 2011.
The seismic market is set for a rebound. We expect that the seismic dayrates will improve by 5% in 2011 and 10% in both 2012 and 2013. We estimate EBITDA of USD 57m
in 2012 and USD 104m in 2013 and derive a mid-2011 DCF value of NOK 8.3. A sharper
than expected rebound in GoM and Brazil could lead to a tighter than expected market.
Compelling valuation. Our target price of NOK 5.50 equals a 33% discount to our DCF,
and implies lease-adjusted EV/EBIT of 4.5x for 2012 and 1.5x for 2013, PE of 5.3x for
2012 and 2.2x for 2013, and a vessel value of USD 178m. Our implied target multiples in
DOLP equals a 25-33% discount to our comparable target price assessment in PLCS.
new
2012E
prev
diff
new
2013E
prev
diff
new
2014E
prev
diff
147
35
30.5
0.17
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
203
76
72.9
0.41
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
179
52
49.6
0.28
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
4.0
3.5
Changes to forecast
3.0
Sales
EBIT
Pretax profit
EPS recurring
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
-1m
-3m
-12m
36.2%
33.7%
na
67.5%
50.2%
na
16.6%
0.2%
na
Price High
3.85
3.85
3.85
Price Low
2.12
1.69
1.25
Absolute
Rel. O SEBX
Rel. peers
Analyst
Pl Hold Dahl
+47 2323 8198
phd@first.no
Henrik Lund Wibe
+47 2323 8233
hlw@first.no
2009
2010E
2011E
2012 E
2013E
2014E
0
0
0
0
53
13
1 47
57
203
104
179
77
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
3
1
0.01
0.01
0.00
35
31
0. 17
0. 17
0. 00
76
73
0.41
0.41
0.00
52
50
0.28
0.28
0.00
na
na
na
nm
nm
nm
na
na
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
25.2%
6.6%
35.9%
179.0 %
nm
nm
38.6 %
23.6 %
34.7 %
37.8%
119.3%
238.9%
51.3%
37.6%
-23.0%
-11.5%
-31.6%
68.0%
43.0%
29.1%
-49.2%
na
na
2.09
0. 82
0.27
na
na
na
nm
nm
nm
0.0%
na
na
nm
nm
nm
0.0%
na
31.9
83.9
83.9
-90.9%
0.0%
8 .4
3 .4
3 .3
3 .3
-9.8 %
0.0 %
2.1
0.8
1.4
1.4
73.4%
0.0%
5.6
0.2
2.0
2.0
69.1%
0.0%
Sales
EBITDA
OSEBX
EBIT
Reported pretax profit
EPS recurring
EPS reported fully diluted
DPS
Sales growth
EBIT growth
EPS recurring growth
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
Debt/Equity ratio
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
P/E recurring
P/E
FCF-yield
Dividend yield
BV/share
2010E
na
P/BV
Equity ratio
2010E
2010E
na
nm
CA GR sales
2009-12E
nm
RO E
2010E
nm
CA GR EBT
CA GR rec EPS
2009-12E
2009-12E
nm
nm
RO CE 2010E
RO IC 2010E
nm
nm
Please note that analyst certification, important disclosures pertaining estimates, recommendation structure,
investment banking relationships and limitation of liabilities are in the back of this report.
The material in the report should not be copied and/or distributed without the consent of First Securities AS.
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
Executive summary
A full-range marine geophysical company
Dolphin Geophysical is full-range marine geophysical company, offering a competitive fleet
with an experienced management team in place.
High-end, cost efficient fleet secured. The company has secured a fleet of two
high-end, cost-efficient 3D vessels and one 2D vessel on time-charter from Rieber
Shipping. Its 3D vessels are chartered for five and three years firm with one six years
and two four years options to extend. Its 2D vessel is chartered for one year firm with
three one year options. The company will offer its 12-14 streamer 3D vessels in the
contract seismic market with operational commencement expected in April 2011 and
March 2012 respectively.
About to launch a large MC 2D project. We expect that Dolphin will launch a large,
multi-client survey in the Americas in 2q11, shortly after time-charter commencement
on its 2D vessel in 1q11. Management guides pre-funding at 100% by completion.
Data processing agreement in place. Dolphin has entered into an agreement with
Geotrace for on-board data processing (identical to the set-up with Wavefield Inseis).
Launch a seismic company from scratch. The management team grew Wavefield
Inseis from scratch in 2006 to a nearly 10% market share in 2008, when it boosted
four 3D vessels and two 2D vessels in operation with one 3D vessel under construction. Due to an in-depth industry experience; Wavefield managed to launch its vessel
conversions more or less on time and costs, despite an extremely tight supply-chain.
Build a world-class MC organisation. During his time as COO at Veritas DGC, Mr.
Tim Wells built a world-class MC operation in both GoM and Brazil. From 2002-2006,
Veritas DGC was the second-largest MC operator worldwide (only Western Geco was
larger).
Generate substantial share-holder value. Wavefield Inseis was sold to CGG Veritas
for NOK 2.1bn in 2008, equalling nearly twice the NOK 1.1bn equity amount raised
between 3q06 and 1q07.
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
NB 533 (3D)
12-14 streamers,
delivery in Apr/11.
T/C: 5Y firm with 1x
6Y options
12-14 streamers,
delivery in Mar/12. T/C:
3Y firm with 2x 4Y
options
Source: Dolphin
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
PGS
Western Geco
Fugro
PLCS
CGG
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
11,0
12,0
13,0
60000
Bunker Fuel
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
100 %
Our estimates
may be too low, if
GoM and Brazil
rebounds or oil
price rally past
USD 100/bl
We are here
75 %
50 %
25 %
0%
2015E
2014E
2013E
2012E
2011E
2010E
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996E
1995E
1994E
-25 %
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
Vessel assumptions
Utilisation
Polar Duke
NB 533
2010E
0
nm.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
2011E
41
12
53
0%
-33
-6
13
-5
-4
0
3
7%
-2
0
0
1
0
1
2012E
123
25
147
179%
-84
-6
57
-11
-11
0
35
24%
-4
0
0
31
-3
27
2013E
172
31
203
38%
-92
-6
104
-14
-14
0
76
38%
-3
0
0
73
-7
66
2014E
154
25
179
-12%
-96
-7
77
-11
-14
0
52
29%
-3
0
0
50
-5
45
2015E
128
17
145
-19%
-98
-7
41
-8
-14
0
20
13%
-2
0
0
18
-2
16
160
0.00
0.00
160
0.01
0.07
160
0.17
0.31
160
0.41
0.58
160
0.28
0.44
160
0.10
0.23
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
80%
0%
83%
81%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
Dayrates
Polar Duke
NB 533
197 100
240 462
224 431
276 531
276 531
248 878
248 878
206 569
206 569
Opex/d
Polar Duke
NB 533
114 900
119 673
120 673
123 489
123 989
129 352
127 352
130 809
130 852
2011E
24
12
2
5
5
0.5x
45%
2012E
12
25
2
11
12
0.9x
45%
2013E
12
31
2
14
15
1.3x
45%
2014E
12
25
2
11
12
1.4x
45%
2015E
12
17
2
8
7
1.3x
45%
Multi-client assumptions
MC capex
MC sales - total
MC cash opex
MC amortisation
MC EBIT
MC sales/cash cost (capex/opex)
Amortisation rate
Source: First Securities
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
2010E
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
60
2011E
13
-2
-24
-63
-76
-16
10
46
0
0
-36
2012E
54
-4
-12
-38
0
-18
9
16
0
0
7
2013E
97
-3
-12
-10
71
-6
1
-12
0
0
54
2014E
72
-3
-12
0
58
4
1
-12
0
0
50
2015E
39
-2
-12
0
25
7
0
-12
0
0
21
Balance sheet
Cash
Current assets
MC data library
Total Current assets
PP&E (incl vessels under const.)
Other assets
Goodwill
Total non-current assets
TOTAL ASSETS
2010E
60
0
0
60
0
0
0
0
60
2011E
24
16
19
59
58
0
0
58
117
2012E
31
34
20
85
85
0
0
85
169
2013E
85
40
17
142
81
0
0
81
223
2014E
135
36
18
189
67
0
0
67
257
2015E
156
29
23
208
53
0
0
53
261
0
0
0
0
0
60
60
60
10
10
46
0
0
61
107
117
19
19
61
0
0
89
150
169
20
20
49
0
0
154
203
223
20
20
37
0
0
199
236
257
21
21
25
0
0
215
240
261
-60
75
15
22
68
90
31
50
81
-35
31
-5
-98
10
-87
-130
0
-130
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
PE
2012
3,3x
2013
1,4x
2011
31,9x
15,9x
EV/EBIT
2012
3,4x
3,4x
2013
0,7x
0,9x
2011
8,4x
7,4x
(34,9)x
19,3x
(4,0)x
8,3x
11,3x
(15,2)x
3,0x
7,4x
8,8x
20,6x
13,5x
(45,8)x
10,5x
8,1x
17,7x
5,6x
5,1x
6,4x
10,4x
5,6x
6,8x
DOLP
DOLP - lease-adj
PLCS
PGS
SBX
EV/EBITDA
2012
2013
2,1x
0,5x
2,2x
0,7x
6,5x
4,3x
4,1x
4,0x
3,1x
2,6x
220
New build cost
0%
200
-10 %
160
Discount to peers
-5 %
180
140
-15 %
-20 %
120
100
-25 %
DOLP today
(NOK 3.35)
New build
cost
DOLP at
target (NOK
5.50)
PLCS today
(NOK 5.25)
PGS today
(NOK 80.7,
age
adjusted)
-30 %
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
End 2010
232
38
270
73
197
End 2011
250
55
305
59
246
Mid-2011
241
47
287
66
221
159,9
1,5
9,2
159,9
1,4
8,3
6,00
9,0%
10,0%
2,5%
Terminal values
Dayrate
Opex/d
Utilization
Number of vessels
212 766
134 764
85 %
2
159,9
1,2
7,4
Oil price
Seismic market
Operational execution
Please note that our initiation of coverage assumes shareholder approval of the equity issue at the EGM due 20 December 2010.
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
Dolphin Interconnect
Solutions
Dolphin Geophysical
(7 employes)
Streamer Company 1
Source: First Securities, Bloomberg
Launch a seismic company from scratch. The management team grew Wavefield
Inseis from scratch in 2006 to a nearly 10% market share in 2008, when it boosted
four 3D vessels and two 2D vessels in operation with one 3D vessel under construction. Due to an in-depth industry experience; Wavefield managed to launch its vessel
conversions more or less on time and costs, despite an extremely tight supply-chain.
Build a world-class MC organisation. During his time as COO at Veritas DGC, Mr.
Tim Wells built a world-class MC operation in both GoM and Brazil. From 2002-2006,
Veritas DGC was the second-largest MC operator worldwide (only Western Geco was
larger).
Generate substantial share-holder value. Wavefield Inseis was sold to CGG Veritas
for NOK 2.1bn in 2008, equalling nearly twice the NOK 1.1bn equity amount raised
between 3q06 and 1q07.
10
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
Management team
Management team
Experience
Atle Jakobsen
(CEO)
Jacobsen has 17 years of experience in the offshore E&P industry with several contractors including PGS and Stolt
Offshore, Multiwave and Wavefield Inseis. Before taking the position as CEO in Wavefield Geophysical in 2006, he
was VP Operations in Multiwave Geophysical Company. Jacobsen holds a Master of Science in Nautical Engineering
from NTH in Trondheim. Jacobsen has served on boards in several offshore and service companies.
Erik Hokholt
(CFO)
Hokholt has more than 20 years experience from the Marine Seismic industry and 5 years experience from the audit
and banking industry. He joined PGS in 1991, where he held senior Financial Director positions for 10 years. Hokholt
was one of the co-founders of Wavefield Geophysical in 2006 and filled the CFO position of Wavefield Inseis ASA until
2009. He was CFO of InSeis from 2002 to 2004 and CEO from 2004 to 2006. He is educated at the Norwegian School
of Management (BI) and Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration (NHH).
Peter A. Hooper
(VP Operations)
Hooper has more than ten years experience in offshore seismic, sub-sea survey, and marine operations. One of the
founders of the seismic service company Wavefield AS and Global VP Operations at Wavefield Inseis. SVP Marine
Operations at CGGVeritas following Wavefield purchase. Hooper has also held senior positions with Geoconsult and
Multiwave Geophysical; Combining many years offshore experience with several years working in senior Project
Manager roles onshore. Hooper holds a BSc (Hons) from the University of Aberdeen and a post Graduate Diploma in
Hydrographic Surveying from the University of Plymouth.
Phil Suter
(VP Sales &
Marketing)
Suter commenced his career as a geophysicist with Seiscom Delta in 1973. In 1978 he joined Geco, and held several
senior processing and marketing positions until the company was acquired by Schlumberger in 1990. Following the
acquisition, Suter was Exploration Services Director for EMEA for 10 years, before he joined Paradigm Geophysical as
Geoscience Director. In 2006, he joined Wavefield as Marketing Director until the company was acquired by
CGGVeritas in 2009.
Tim Wells
(President
Western
Hemisphere)
Tim Wells began his career in the industry in 1977, and joined Digicon Geophysical in Houston in 1981 as a
Processing Geophysicist. In 1988, he was promoted to manage North and South American Processing, before he
moved to Singapore, where he became Manager of Regional Processing and later President for the APAC Region. Tim
served as President and COO of VeritasDGC after the merger with Veritas in 1999. He held this position until the
company was acquired by CGG in 2007. Post acquisition he held the position of President of the Western Hemisphere
for CGGVeritas
August 2006: Wavefield Inseis was formed following the merger between Wavefield Geophysical (seismic vessel company) and Inseis AS (MC company).
March 2007: IPO on Oslo Stock Exchange raised NOK 500m in new equity with
existing shareholders selling 36.8m shares for NOK 1.621bn (heavily oversubscribed).
11
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
Veritas DGC
PGS
TGS
CGG
Western Geco
200
Veritas DGC
PGS
TGS
Western Geco
350
180
300
250
140
MC sales (USDm)
MC Investments (USDm)
160
120
100
80
200
150
100
60
40
50
20
0
1q02
2q02
3q02
4q02
1q03
2q03
3q03
4q03
1q04
2q04
3q04
4q04
1q05
2q05
3q05
4q05
1q06
2q06
3q06
4q06
1q07
2q07
3q07
4q07
1q08
2q08
3q08
4q08
1q09
2q09
3q09
4q09
1q10
2q10
3q10
4q10
1q02
2q02
3q02
4q02
1q03
2q03
3q03
4q03
1q04
2q04
3q04
4q04
1q05
2q05
3q05
4q05
1q06
2q06
3q06
4q06
1q07
2q07
3q07
4q07
1q08
2q08
3q08
4q08
1q09
2q09
3q09
4q09
1q10
2q10
3q10
4q10
Polar Duke
April
2011
April
2016
5y firm
April
2022
6y option
NB 533 (opt.)
March
2012
Polar Explorer
1y contract
Feb
11
NB 535 (opt.)
3y firm
1y opt. 1y opt.
Feb
12
Feb
13
March
2015
1y opt.
Feb
14
Feb
15
Potential delivery
Nov
2012
12
4y option
March
2019
4y option
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
13
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
Bunker Fuel
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
Daily opex savings with use of Bunker fuel instead of Marine gas oil (USD/day)*
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
3,107
6,450
9,018
9,462
9,072
2008
15,435
14
2009
2010
5,902
8,893
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
15
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
50 %
+12%
+11%*
+9%
100
500,0
90
450,0
80
400,0
70
350,0
60
300,0
50
250,0
40
200,0
30
150,0
40 %
30 %
20 %
10 %
0%
-10 %
-20 %
20
-30 %
10
0
-40 %
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
1970
2011E
100,0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
50,0
0,0
2005 2010E
350
100%
300
95%
90%
250
80%
150
75%
100
70%
16
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
Af rica/Medit
S. America
Marketed Utilisation
Asia/Pacif ic
Worldw ide
2011E
N. America
NW.Europe
Not contracted
1995
1993
60%
1991
0
1989
65%
1987
50
Utilization
85%
200
1985
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
Long-term, todays RRR is insufficient, providing an attractive long-term market outlook for seismic
As the Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR) has decreased significantly over the last decade, the need for increased exploration is key. The long term market outlook for oil services in general and seismic in particular looks very strong.
Reserve replacement ratio
250 %
200 %
150 %
100 %
50 %
European Union
OECD excl. Canada
TOTAL WORLD excl Canada & Venezuella
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
0%
25 %
15 %
Annual growth*
10 %
5%
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0%
1997
20 %
-5 %
DOLP in full
operation
-10 %
17
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
100 %
Our estimates
may be too low, if
GoM and Brazil
rebounds or oil
price rally past
USD 100/bl
We are here
75 %
50 %
25 %
0%
2015E
2014E
2013E
2012E
2011E
2010E
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996E
1995E
1994E
-25 %
14
No vessels in GoM
12
200
8
6
USDbn
10
150
100
50
2
0
1q10
2q10
3q10
4q10
1q11E
18
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
Dolphin will have a 4% market share in 2012 with options in place for additional growth
We estimate that Dolphin will obtain a market share of roughly 4% in just two years. Given
an exclusive opportunity for growth through option vessels, we estimate that its market
share could reach 8% end-2012.
Market shares YE10
Dolphin
0%
Others
10 %
Others
9%
Polarcus
5%
Western Geco
22 %
Dolphin
4%
Western Geco
27 %
Polarcus
12 %
Fugro
14 %
Fugro
12 %
PGS
18 %
CGG Veritas
27 %
CGG Veritas
25 %
PGS
15 %
19
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
Vessel assumptions
Utilisation
Polar Duke
NB 533
2010E
0
nm.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
2011E
41
12
53
0%
-33
-6
13
-5
-4
0
3
7%
-2
0
0
1
0
1
2012E
123
25
147
179%
-84
-6
57
-11
-11
0
35
24%
-4
0
0
31
-3
27
2013E
172
31
203
38%
-92
-6
104
-14
-14
0
76
38%
-3
0
0
73
-7
66
2014E
154
25
179
-12%
-96
-7
77
-11
-14
0
52
29%
-3
0
0
50
-5
45
2015E
128
17
145
-19%
-98
-7
41
-8
-14
0
20
13%
-2
0
0
18
-2
16
160
0.00
0.00
160
0.01
0.07
160
0.17
0.31
160
0.41
0.58
160
0.28
0.44
160
0.10
0.23
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
80%
0%
83%
81%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
85%
Dayrates
Polar Duke
NB 533
197 100
240 462
224 431
276 531
276 531
248 878
248 878
206 569
206 569
Opex/d
Polar Duke
NB 533
114 900
119 673
120 673
123 489
123 989
129 352
127 352
130 809
130 852
2011E
24
12
2
5
5
0.5x
45%
2012E
12
25
2
11
12
0.9x
45%
2013E
12
31
2
14
15
1.3x
45%
2014E
12
25
2
11
12
1.4x
45%
2015E
12
17
2
8
7
1.3x
45%
Multi-client assumptions
MC capex
MC sales - total
MC cash opex
MC amortisation
MC EBIT
MC sales/cash cost (capex/opex)
Amortisation rate
Source: First Securities
20
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
2010E
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
0
60
2011E
13
-2
-24
-63
-76
-16
10
46
0
0
-36
2012E
54
-4
-12
-38
0
-18
9
16
0
0
7
2013E
97
-3
-12
-10
71
-6
1
-12
0
0
54
2014E
72
-3
-12
0
58
4
1
-12
0
0
50
2015E
39
-2
-12
0
25
7
0
-12
0
0
21
Balance sheet
Cash
Current assets
MC data library
Total Current assets
PP&E (incl vessels under const.)
Other assets
Goodwill
Total non-current assets
TOTAL ASSETS
2010E
60
0
0
60
0
0
0
0
60
2011E
24
16
19
59
58
0
0
58
117
2012E
31
34
20
85
85
0
0
85
169
2013E
85
40
17
142
81
0
0
81
223
2014E
135
36
18
189
67
0
0
67
257
2015E
156
29
23
208
53
0
0
53
261
0
0
0
0
0
60
60
60
10
10
46
0
0
61
107
117
19
19
61
0
0
89
150
169
20
20
49
0
0
154
203
223
20
20
37
0
0
199
236
257
21
21
25
0
0
215
240
261
-60
75
15
22
68
90
31
50
81
-35
31
-5
-98
10
-87
-130
0
-130
21
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
PE
2012
3,3x
2013
1,4x
2011
31,9x
15,9x
EV/EBIT
2012
3,4x
3,4x
2013
0,7x
0,9x
2011
8,4x
7,4x
(34,9)x
19,3x
(4,0)x
8,3x
11,3x
(15,2)x
3,0x
7,4x
8,8x
20,6x
13,5x
(45,8)x
10,5x
8,1x
17,7x
5,6x
5,1x
6,4x
10,4x
5,6x
6,8x
DOLP
DOLP - lease-adj
PLCS
PGS
SBX
EV/EBITDA
2012
2013
2,1x
0,5x
2,2x
0,7x
6,5x
4,3x
4,1x
4,0x
3,1x
2,6x
-53 %
-18 %
-49 %
-10 %
Market trough
-43 %
0%
3D rates (USD/day)
Revenues
Opex
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
165 000
102
90
12
13
0
180 000
112
90
22
13
9
200 000
124
90
34
13
22
220 000
137
90
47
13
34
240 000
149
90
59
13
46
260 000
161
90
71
13
59
89
73
162
13,1x
(2403,8)x
89
73
162
7,5x
17,6x
89
73
162
4,8x
7,5x
89
73
162
3,5x
4,8x
89
73
162
2,8x
3,5x
165 000
102
68
34
19
16
180 000
112
68
44
19
25
200 000
124
68
56
19
37
220 000
137
68
68
19
50
89
73
162
75
6
6,9x
15,3x
89
73
162
75
6
5,4x
9,5x
89
73
162
75
6
4,2x
6,4x
89
73
162
75
6
3,5x
4,8x
2011E (10-12 str) 2012E (10-12 str) 2013E (10-12 str) 2013E (12-14 str)
-37 %
-31 %
-26 %
-21 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
38 %
22
-14 %
50 %
0%
75 %
275 000
171
90
81
13
68
300 000
186
90
96
13
84
350 000
217
90
127
13
115
89
73
162
2,3x
2,8x
89
73
162
2,0x
2,4x
89
73
162
1,7x
1,9x
89
73
162
1,3x
1,4x
240 000
149
68
81
19
62
260 000
161
68
93
19
74
275 000
171
68
103
19
84
300 000
186
68
118
19
99
350 000
217
68
149
19
130
89
73
162
75
6
2,9x
3,8x
89
73
162
75
6
2,5x
3,2x
89
73
162
75
6
2,3x
2,8x
89
73
162
75
6
2,0x
2,4x
89
73
162
75
6
1,6x
1,8x
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
220
New build cost
0%
200
-10 %
160
Discount to peers
-5 %
180
140
-15 %
-20 %
120
100
-25 %
DOLP today
(NOK 3.35)
New build
cost
DOLP at
target (NOK
5.50)
PLCS today
(NOK 5.25)
PGS today
(NOK 80.7,
age
adjusted)
-30 %
End 2010
232
38
270
73
197
End 2011
250
55
305
59
246
Mid-2011
241
47
287
66
221
159,9
1,5
9,2
159,9
1,4
8,3
6,00
9,0%
10,0%
2,5%
Terminal values
Dayrate
Opex/d
Utilization
Number of vessels
212 766
134 764
85 %
2
159,9
1,2
7,4
23
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
Company Information
ROE vs. P/BV
1.6
60
1.4
50
1.2
40
1.0
30
0.8
20
0.6
10
0.4
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
0
2007
2008
P / BV
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
2007
ROE (%)
Atle Jakobsen
CFO
Erik Hokholt
IR
na
http://www.dolphingeo.com/
Tel
na
Address
na
00 January 0000
00 January 0000
Shareholders
Website
Annual meeting
2008
Votes
Capital
International investors
na
na
Free float
na
na
A/B-v otes
na
na
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
EBITA
EBIT
Non-recurring items
Operating profit
Income from associated companies
Net financial items
Reported pre-tax profit
Rec urring pre-tax profit
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
Total tax
Minority interest
Reported net profit
Rec urring net profit
0
na
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
na
0
0
0
na
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EPS recurring
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
Net Sales
EBITDA
Tax rate
Recurring EPS excludes or normalises gains/losses on equity investments, asset sales/writedowns and currency positions and is based on long-term tax rates.
Other valuation measures are based on such recurring earnings.
24
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
0
na
0
na
0
0
0
0
53
na
147
na
203
na
179
na
- 39
- 90
- 99
- 102
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
- 33
na
na
- 6
na
na
- 84
na
na
- 6
na
na
- 92
na
na
- 6
na
na
- 96
na
na
- 7
na
na
EBITDA
Depreciation of property, plant & equipment
0
na
0
na
0
0
0
0
13
- 4
57
- 11
104
- 14
77
- 14
EBITA
Goodwill amortisation
0
na
0
na
0
0
0
0
9
na
46
na
90
na
63
na
na
na
- 5
- 11
- 14
- 11
EBIT
Write-downs
Capital gains
Res tructuring charges and provisions
Other non-recurring items
0
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
na
na
na
na
35
na
na
na
na
76
na
na
na
na
52
na
na
na
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
35
0
76
0
52
0
Net interest
Interest Income
Interest expenses
0
na
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
- 2
na
0
- 4
na
0
- 3
na
0
- 3
na
0
0
na
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
na
0
na
0
na
Operating pr ofit
Income from associated companies
31
73
50
na
na
na
na
0
0
0
0
0
na
- 3
na
- 7
na
- 5
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
27
27
66
66
45
45
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
Goodwill
Other Intangible assets
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
0
na
0
na
0
na
Tangible assets
Shares and participations
Other fixed financial assets
Other fixed assets
Fixed assets
Inventories
Rec eivables
Cas h and liquid assets
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
na
58
0
na
0
58
na
na
24
85
0
na
0
85
na
na
31
81
na
na
0
81
na
na
85
67
na
na
0
67
na
na
135
na
0
na
0
na
0
na
0
35
59
54
85
58
142
54
189
117
169
223
257
Shareholders Equity
Minority interest
Convertible debt
Other long-term liabilities
Long-term interest bearing debt
0
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
61
na
na
0
46
89
na
na
0
61
154
na
na
0
49
199
na
na
0
37
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
na
0
0
0
na
na
na
0
0
0
na
na
10
0
0
0
na
na
19
na
na
na
na
na
20
na
na
na
na
na
20
117
169
223
257
Total Assets
25
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
Operating profit
Depreciation & amortisation
0
na
0
na
0
na
0
na
3
10
35
22
76
28
52
25
na
na
na
0
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
0
0
na
na
- 2
0
11
- 6
5
- 63
- 24
na
- 4
- 3
49
- 9
41
- 38
- 12
na
- 3
- 7
93
- 5
88
- 10
- 12
na
- 3
- 5
70
5
74
0
- 12
na
0
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
0
na
na
na
na
na
0
na
na
0
na
60
na
na
na
- 82
na
na
- 82
na
0
46
0
na
- 9
na
na
- 9
na
0
16
na
na
66
na
na
66
na
0
- 12
na
na
62
na
na
62
na
0
- 12
na
60
- 36
54
50
- 82
- 9
66
62
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cas h earnings
Cas h earnings recurring
Free cash flow
Free cash flow recurring
Book value
Book Value (ex Goodwill)
Dividend
Dividend yield
0.0
0.0
na
nm
na
na
0.00
0.0%
0.0
0.0
na
nm
na
na
0.00
0.0%
0.0
0.0
na
nm
na
na
0.00
0.0%
0.0
0.0
na
nm
na
na
0.00
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.4
0.4
0.00
0.0%
0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.6
0.00
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.4
1.0
1.0
0.00
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.4
1.2
1.2
0.00
0.0%
Valuation
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
P/FCF
P/E recurring (Year End)
P/E recurring (High)
P/E recurring (Low)
P/E
P/BV
na
na
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
na
na
na
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
na
na
na
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
na
na
na
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
na
na
na
na
nm
83.9
na
na
83.9
1.48
na
na
na
nm
3.3
na
na
3.3
1.02
na
na
na
1.4
nm
na
na
nm
0.59
na
na
na
1.4
nm
na
na
nm
0.45
na
nm
na
nm
na
nm
na
nm
1.48
-90.9%
1.02
-9.8%
0.59
73.4%
0.45
69.1%
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
36.6%
25.2%
6.6%
2.3%
2.0%
2.3%
42.8%
38.6%
23.6%
20.7%
18.7%
20.7%
54.5%
51.3%
37.6%
35.9%
32.3%
35.9%
46.7%
43.0%
29.1%
27.6%
24.9%
27.6%
Profitability
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
FCF/Sales
ROA
ROCE
ROIC
ROE
ROE recurring
nm
na
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
na
na
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
na
na
12.8%
3.5%
3.9%
-6.0%
na
na
51.6%
36.7%
40.8%
32.6%
na
na
94.3%
54.1%
60.1%
34.7%
na
na
72.6%
25.3%
28.1%
Margins
Gross margin
EBITDA margin
EBIT margin
PTP margin
Net margin
Rec urring net margin
26
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA -14 December 2010
Critical assumptions;
Planned updates;
First Securities AS plans to update the recommendation on the company when;
Dec 08
Mar 09
Jun 09
Sep 09
Dec 09
Mar 10
Jun 10
Sep 10
Dec 10
Sources of information;
The sources have been;
Share ownership
First Securities AS may have holdings in the companies described herein as a result of market making operations and/or underlying shares
as a result of derivatives trading. First Securities AS may buy or sell such shares both for own account, and as a principal agent. Due to internal professional secrecy such holdings are not known to others outside the department which carries out the operations.
27
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - 14 December 2010
General disclaimer
Recommendation structure and definitions
First Securities AS Research department operates with 5 recommendation categories based on expected absolute return for the security 12
months forward. The absolute return includes share appreciation and dividend yield combined.
Strong Buy:
Buy:
Neutral:
Reduce:
Sell:
Share price target:
Strong Buy
Buy
Neutral
Reduce
Sell
No of Stocks
23
55
34
4
0
Sell
Reduce 0%
3%
Strong
Buy
20%
Neutral
29%
Strong
Buy
25%
Neutral
33%
Buy
48%
Buy
37%
Information barriers
First Securities AS relies on information barriers ("Chinese walls") to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within
First Securities AS, into other areas or units within First Securities AS. First Securities AS is organised in accordance with relevant legislation
and in accordance with the guidelines given by the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association. The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of
this report has not at the same time been involved in corporate assignments for companies described by him or her.
Analyst certification
I/we hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and
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28
Equity Research
Dolphin Group ASA - Error! Style not defined.
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
Sales
Sales growth
0
na
0
na
0
na
0
na
53
nm
147
179.0%
203
37.8%
179
-11.5%
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
0
na
0
na
0
na
0
na
13
25.2%
57
38.6%
104
51.3%
77
43.0%
EBIT
EBIT margin
0
nm
0
nm
0
nm
0
nm
3
6.6%
35
23.6%
76
37.6%
52
29.1%
Non-recurring items
Income from associated companies
Net financial items
na
0
0
na
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
na
0
-2
na
0
-4
na
0
-3
na
0
-3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
31
27
27
73
66
66
50
45
45
Cash flow
2007
2008
2009
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
0
na
na
0
0
0
na
na
0
0
0
na
na
0
0
0
0
na
0
0
5
- 63
na
- 82
0
41
- 38
na
- 9
0
88
- 10
na
66
0
74
0
na
62
0
0
na
0
0
na
0
0
na
0
0
na
60
- 82
na
- 36
- 9
na
7
66
na
54
62
na
50