Chapter 1 Data...................................................................

...................... 13
1.1 Data and questions..................................................
........................... 14
1.2 Graphical displays..................................................
........................... 20
1.3 Numerical summaries.................................................
........................... 32
1.4 Graphical displays and numerical summaries..........................
........................... 43
1.5 A look ahead........................................................
........................... 48
Summary.................................................................
........................... 53
Chapter 2 Models for Data.......................................................
....................... 55
2.1 Random variables and probability....................................
........................... 58
2.2 Probability distributions and describing them.......................
........................... 66
2.3 The Bernoulli and binomial probability models.......................
........................... 83
2.4 The normal distribution.............................................
........................... 94
2.5 Some further exercises..............................................
...........................101
Summary.................................................................
...........................105
Chapter 3 Models for Data.......................................................
.......................106
3.1 Population means and variances......................................
...........................107
3.2 Independence of random variables....................................
...........................123
3.3 The geometric probability model.....................................
...........................126
3.4 Two models for uniformity...........................................
...........................135
3.5 Population quantiles................................................
...........................143
Summary.................................................................
...........................149
Chapter 4 Models' for Data......................................................
.......................152
4.1 Rare events.........................................................
...........................153
4.2 Drawing random samples..............................................
...........................164
4.3 Moments of linear functions.........................................
...........................169
4.4 The exponential distribution........................................
...........................178
4.5 On simulation.......................................................
...........................187
Summary.................................................................
...........................192
Chapter 5 The normal distribution...............................................
.......................194
5.1 Some history........................................................
...........................195

5.2 The standard normal distribution....................................

...........................202
5.3 The central limit theorem...........................................
...........................216
5.4 Normal approximations to continuous distributions...................
...........................221
5.5 The normal approximation to discrete distributions..................
...........................225
Summary.................................................................
...........................232
Chapter 6 Point estimation......................................................
.......................234
6.1 Principles of point estimation......................................
...........................236
6.2 Methods of estimation...............................................
...........................246
6.3 The method of maximum likelihood....................................
...........................253
6.4 More about maximum likelihood estimation............................
...........................260
6.5 Estimating a normal variance........................................
...........................267
Summary.................................................................
...........................273
Chapter 7 Estimation with confidence............................................
.......................275
7.1 Samples of size one.................................................
...........................277
7.2 Small samples.......................................................
...........................286
7.3 Confidence intervals for the parameters of a normal distribution....
...........................290
7.4 Larger samples......................................................
...........................300
7.5 Inference without a model...........................................
...........................308
Summary.................................................................
...........................310
Chapter 8 Testing hypotheses....................................................
.......................312
8.1 An approach using confidence intervals..............................
...........................316
8.2 Fixed-level testing.................................................
...........................322
8.3 Significance testing................................................
...........................334
8.4 Comparing the means of two normal populations.......................
...........................341
8.5 Other comparisons...................................................
...........................348
Summary.................................................................
...........................352
Chapter 9 Examining the assumptions.............................................
.......................355
9.1 Are the distributional assumptions plausible........................
...........................357
9.2 Can we quantify discrepancy between the data and the model..........
...........................363
9.3 If the distributional assumptions are not plausible, what can we do.
...........................370

9.4 Is a modelling distribution necessary for answering the questions we

are asking of the data....376
9.5 Are the data typical or do they contain some 'unlucky' values.......
...........................383
Summary.................................................................
...........................385
Chapter 10 Explanatory relations................................................
.......................387
10.1 Some examples and a brief history..................................
...........................392
10.2 Fitting the chosen regression model................................
...........................401
10.3 Sampling properties of the model...................................
...........................414
10.4 The prediction problein............................................
...........................420
10.5 The assumptions of the regression model............................
...........................424
Summary.................................................................
...........................429
Chapter 11 Related variables....................................................
.......................432
11.1 Bivariate data.....................................................
...........................433
11.2 Measures of association............................................
...........................440
11.3 Exact tests for association in 2 X 2 contingency tables............
...........................454
11.4 The chi-squared test for contingency tables........................
...........................458
11.5 The bivariate normal distribution..................................
...........................463
Summary.................................................................
...........................467
Chapter 12 Random processes.....................................................
.......................469
12.1 Examples of random processes.......................................
...........................471
12.2 The Bernoulli process as an inadequate model.......................
...........................485
12.3 Markov chains......................................................
...........................489
12.4 The Poisson process................................................
...........................495
12.5 Variations.........................................................
...........................503
Summary.................................................................
...........................505
Chapter 13 A Look Back..........................................................
.......................507
13.1 Exploiting statistical graphics....................................
...........................508
13.2 Model fitting and testing..........................................
...........................512
13.3 Comparing two populations..........................................
...........................517
13.4 Contingency tables.................................................
...........................525
13.5 Correlation........................................................
...........................529

13.6 Regression analysis................................................

...........................531
Conclusion..............................................................
...........................535
Chapter 14 A Look Forward.......................................................
.......................536
14.1 Analysis of variance...............................................
...........................537
14.2 Cluster analysis...................................................
...........................543
14.3 Principal components analysis......................................
...........................549
14.4 Discriminant analysis..............................................
...........................554
14.5 Log-linear modelling...............................................
...........................559
14.6 Multiple regression analysis.......................................
...........................561
14.7 And beyond.........................................................
...........................564
Conclusion..............................................................
...........................565
Solutions to the exercises......................................................
.......................567
Appendix........................................................................
.......................672
Index of data sets..............................................................
.......................678
Index of examples...............................................................
.......................679
General index...................................................................
.......................681