WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

COMMISSION FOR AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY

CAgM Report No. 74

WEATHER/CLIMATE AND SUSTAINABLE

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND PROTECTION
Prepared by
A. Brunetti, P.B. Ford, E.T. Kartemasu, W.N. Lablans
P.F. Mills, R. Mulder, O.D. Sirotenko (Chairman) and F. Wang
(Members of the CAgM-X Working Group on Relationships between
weather/climate and sustainable agricultural production and protection)

WMO/TD-No. 838
Geneva, Switzerland
August 1997

TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD

INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ vi
CHAPTER 1

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ASPECTS AND APPLICATION

OF AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGIES TO HELP PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUSTAINABLE FARMING SYSTEMS by P.F. Mills ................................... 1

1.1

INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1

1.2

AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGIES ........................................................................................... 3

1.2.1

Physical measurement technologies ................................................................... 3

1.2.2
1.2.3
1.2.4
1.2.5
1.2.6
1.2.7
1.2.8
1.2.9
1.2.10
1.2.11

Atmospheric modification technologies ............................................................... 5

Mechanical technologies ..................................................................................... 6
Biological technologies......................................................................................... 8
Biotechnological technologies .............................................................................. 8
Remote sensing technologies .............................................................................. 9
Communication technologies ............................................................................ 10
Computer and electronic technologies ............................................................... 11
Integrated field-level technologies ..................................................................... 12
Chemical technologies ....................................................................................... 17
Adaptive technologies ....................................................................................... 18

1.3

Conclusions and recommendations .............................................................................. 20

1.4

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................. 22

CHAPTER 2

ADAPTATION OF FARMING SYSTEMS AND AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE,
INCLUDING MODELLING OF CROPS, PASTURE AND ANIMAL
PRODUCTION by O.D. Sirotenko .................................................................... 29

2.1

INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 29

2.2

METHODOLOGY FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE

CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURE .......................................................... 29
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3

2.3

Climate change scenarios .................................................................................. 29

Models for assessing the impact of climate variations
and climate changes on agriculture................................................................... 31
Development of methodology ............................................................................ 34

IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY ..................... 37

2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3
2.3.4
2.3.5
2.3.6

America .............................................................................................................. 37
Europe ................................................................................................................ 38
Africa ................................................................................................................. 39
Asia ................................................................................................................... 40
Russian Federation ........................................................................................... 41
Global assessments ........................................................................................... 43

ii

2.4

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON GRASSLAND

PRODUCTIVITY, LIVESTOCK AND SOIL FERTILITY ................................................... 47
2.4.1
2.4.2

2.5

Grassland/livestock - impact and adaptation assessments ............................. 47

Soil fertility - impact and adaptation assessments ............................................ 49

ADAPTATION OF FARMING SYSTEMS AND AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTION TO POSSIBLE CLIMATIC CHANGES .................................................... 50

2.6

CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................... 54

2.7
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 55
CHAPTER 3 METHODS AND TECHNIQUES FOR MICROSCALE MODIFICATION TO
AVOID OR REDUCE LOSSES IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION by
A. Brunetti .......................................................................................................... 61
3.1

INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 61

3.2

FROST PROTECTION - DIRECT METHODS .................................................................. 61

3.2.1
3.2.2
3.2.3
3.2.4

3.3

Smoke ............................................................................................................... 62
Sprinkler irrigation: use of water as a heat source in
frost control ........................................................................................................ 62
Fog ................................................................................................................ 62
Wind machines (fans) ...................................................................................... 63

FROST PROTECTION - INDIRECT METHODS ............................................................. 63

3.3.1
3.3.2
3.3.3

Delay in bud break

...................................................................................... 63
Ice nucleation activebacteria............................................................................. 63
Warning systems ............................................................................................. 63

3.4

HAIL PROTECTION ......................................................................................................... 63

3.5

WINDS ............................................................................................................................. 63

3.6
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................. 64
CHAPTER 4 METHODS TO TANSFORM BASIC KNOWLEDGE INTO OPERATIONAL
TECHNIQUES AND TO ADAPT OPERATIONAL TECHNIQUES FOR USE
ELSEWHERE by F.B. Ford and E.T. Kanemasu .............................................. 67
4.1

INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 67

4.2

SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ........................................................... 67

4.3

MODELLING ..................................................................................................................... 68

4.4

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................... 69

4.5

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) ............................................................ 71

4.6

REMOTE SENSING .......................................................................................................... 72

4.7

DEMONSTRATIONS ........................................................................................................ 73

4.8

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 74

4.9

ANNEX TO FIGURES ....................................................................................................... 76

CHAPTER 5 USE OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION TO

ALLEVIATE HEAT STRESS by F. Wang....................................................... 91
5.1

INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 91

5.2

HEAT STRESS DAMAGE ................................................................................................. 91

5.2.1

5.2.2
5.2.3

5.2.4
5.2.5

5.2.6

5.3

5.2.1.1
Rice ................................................................................................. 91
5.2.1.2
Wheat .............................................................................................. 91
5.2.1.3
Potato .............................................................................................. 92
5.2.1.4
Sugarcane ....................................................................................... 92
5.2.1.5
Basic physiological processes ........................................................ 92
5.2.1.6
Interaction of heat stress and water stress ..................................... 92
5.2.1.7
Conclusion ...................................................................................... 93
On fruits ............................................................................................................ 93
5.2.2.1
Sun scald (or sun burn) .................................................................. 93
5.2.2.2
Influence on quality (transportation and storage) ........................... 93
On forest trees ................................................................................................... 93
5.2.3.1
General .......................................................................................... 93
5.2.3.2
Bark burn......................................................................................... 94
5.2.3.3
Root-collar burn ............................................................................. 94
5.2.3.4
Forest fire ....................................................................................... 94
On animals ........................................................................................................ 94
Effect of heat stress on insect pests and diseases ........................................... 95
5.2.5.1
Insect pests ..................................................................................... 95
5.2.5.2
Diseases ........................................................................................ 95
5.2.5.3
Conclusion ...................................................................................... 95
Effect of heat stress on others ........................................................................... 96
5.2.6.1
Soil erosion and desertification ....................................................... 96
5.2.6.2
Pollutants ........................................................................................ 96

USE OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION TO ALLEVIATE

HEAT STRESS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 96
5.3.1
5.3.2
5.3.3

5.4

On plant growth and crop production ................................................................ 91

Agrometeorological information service ............................................................ 96

Weather forecast services for agriculture .......................................................... 97
5.3.2.1
Forecast of dry-hot winds ............................................................... 97
5.3.2.2
Forecast of forest fires ................................................................... 97
Satellite remote sensing monitoring and information service ............................ 97

SOME METHODS/MEASURES ADOPTED TO ALLEVIATE HEAT STRESS .............. 98

5.4.1
5.4.2
5.4.3
5.4.4
5.4.5

Breeding of new heat-resistant varieties ........................................................... 98

Use of mulching technologies ........................................................................... 98
Increase of irrigation and sprinkling................................................................... 98
Adoption of ventilation-management measures ................................................ 98
Adjustment in the area destribution of the current cultivars .............................. 98

5.5

CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................... 99

IV

5.6

RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................... 99

5.7

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 100

5.8

ANNEX ........................................................................................................................... 101

CHAPTER 6 PROBLEMS RELATING TO HIGH INDUSTRIALIZATION

AND AGRICULTURE, INCLUDING ASPECTS OF QUALITY
OF PRODUCE AND DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
by W.N. Lablans and R. Mulder ............................................................... 103
6.1

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................
103

6.2

THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABILITY .......................................................................... 103

6.3

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES ....................................................................... 103

6.4

ADAPTATION OF THE AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES WITH

RESPECT TO DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT ............................................ 103

6.5

ADAPTATION OF SERVICES RELATED TO QUANTITY AND QUALITY

OF THE PRODUCTS .................................................................................................... 104

6.6

AGROTOPOCLIMATOLOGY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE ............................ 106

6.7

PHENOLOGY AND SUSTAINABILITY ........................................................................... 106

6.8

LOW INPUT FARMING ................................................................................................... 107

6.9

INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT ........................................................................... 107

6.10

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT ...................................................................................... 107

6.11

ANIMAL PRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 108

6.12

CONCLUSION .....................................................................................................................
108

6.13

REFERENCES .....................................................................................................................
111

FOREWORD
During the tenth session of CAgM held in Florence, Italy on 2-13 December, 1991, a Working
Group on Relationships between Weather/Climate and Sustainable Agricultural Production and Protection" was
established. The group was in turn composed of six rapporteurs, each dealing with a sub-component of the
topic. An expert, each from FAO and ICR IS AT was nominated on the group. Drafts of the individual
submissions from each rapporteur were prepared and submitted by the end of 1993. A joint meeting of all
members of the working group scheduled in March, 1994 reviewed the submissions and a time-table of further
work was prepared. Suggestions and recommendations were put forward by members of the group to improve
the contents, as well as the presentation of the report.
The various final reports submitted by the individual rapporteurs were edited in the WMO
secretariat for uniformity of style and presentation for publication as a CAgM Report, as recommended by
CAgM-XI.

INTRODUCTION

O.D. Sirotenko

The international organizations dealing with environmental aspects, pay increasingly special
attention to the problems of adaptation in agriculture to expected changes in climate and other environmental
components. The WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is dealing with the subject of
climate change through three international working groups established for this purpose. The Working Group II of
the IPCC dealt with "Agriculture and Forestry. A fairly comprehensive report has been prepared by the group.
This review includes the recent publications (primarily since 1990) which have not been reflected in the summary
report of the above mentioned working group.
The structure of the presentation is based on the following considerations. Assessments of impact
of climate change and increased concentrations of greenhouse gases on agriculture require:

reliable regional scenarios of expected climatic changes;

mathematical models capable of making good assessments of crop yiel to changes in climatic
parameters, increase in concentration of greenhouse gases and soil degradation.

These issues are dealt with in this report. A separate section covers the studies on systematic
analysis of the problem, extension of the knowledge basis related to it and development of the methodology.
Adaptation of agriculture to these changes is a composite interdisciplinary area in which significant
role is played by exogenic factors including climatic parameters and C02 tropospheric ozone, ultraviolet radiation
UV-B and soil organic matter.
The report uses the same concept running target, experiments on impact and experiments on
adjustment, etc., as defined by Parry and Carter, 1988.
Projection of impact of global warming (for different continents) is given in the second chapter of
this report. This chapter includes a paragraph on regional assessment. The third chapter presents the later
information on assessing the effect of climate change and variability on grassland productivity, livestock and soil
fertility. The section also deals with the adaptation farming systems to expected environmental changes.

1
CHAPTER 1
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL ASPECTS
AND APPLICATION OF AVAILABLE
TECHNOLOGIES TO HELP PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUSTAINABLE FARMING SYSTEMS
by P.F. Mills

1.1

INTRODUCTION

This paper will attempt to utilize a broad definition of Agrometeorology, including all aspects of the
soil/plant/atmosphere, rather than restricting itself to selected areas such as water use or vapotranspiration. It
will, of necessity, examine a large number of technologies currently available to agriculture and the field of
agrometeorology. However, as the term aspects in the title implies, it will not be possible to provide a completely
comprehensive and technical review of every level of agrometeorological or agricultural technology such as all
the different tillage systems available. The use of irrigation or the assessment of irrigation/evaporation processes
will not be examined in detail in this paper since this technology is both highly site specific and has been dealt
with at great length in other areas (Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1977). It will examine these technologies not from the
view of current agrometeorological application but from the point of view of potential application. Towards this
end, this paper will attempt to examine a wide spectrum of available technologies, including more sophisticated
technologies which in many areas are only just becoming available.
Since the agrometeorological aspects and application of available technologies should help
promote sustainable farming systems attempt is made in this paper to list those technologies. This paper will
take that same approach by identifying several technological areas and then consider the agrometeorological
aspects of them. Furthermore, due to the rather broad scope of this topic, there may be a tendency to try and
think in terms of every technology being applicable in every climatic region worldwide. This, obviously, cannot
and is not the case. This paper will not attempt to identify every climatic region and dwell at length upon their
differences. There are numerous texts, books and data references published by national meteorological
organizations and by general publishing houses such as Elsevier's series on the world's climates (Landsberg,
1969) which do a far better and more comprehensive job of this than can be done with the space available here.
Likewise, this paper will not attempt to provide a detailed review of all the principal agro-climates of the world.
There are numerous climatic classification systems which provide a comprehensive survey of the worlds
climates and which the reader would be directed to use for comparative purposes. This paper will use several
representative climatic scenarios for explanatory purposes as they apply to the technologies in question but it
will not attempt to provide a comprehensive review.
The concept of available technologies as it is used in this paper will be defined as any technology
which is available for direct or indirect use by a farming system. This includes both integrated farming systems
and technology, instrumentation or procedures specific to and developed for other areas of endeavour. There
are also numerous examples of traditional technologies listed although not all of the areas listed have traditional
equivalents. In addition, it has been shown that not all of the available technologies are appropriate to different
applications (Ohm and Nagy, 1985). This broad definition does raise questions regarding the quantity, supply
duration and associated training of technology made available to any given country against the sophistication of
the technological inputs utilized by the farming systems of that country. These questions can only be settled by
assessing each system and evaluating the cost/benefits for that system on a long term sustainable basis. It must
be recognized that if a developed nation supplies advanced technologies to a developing country, then there will
be an ongoing obligation to supply the required training, spare parts, repairs and other generalized support
mechanisms required for the optimum use of that technology.
There are currently numerous definitions of what sustainable agriculture is and should be
(Sivakumar et a/., 1992). Each of these definitions places emphasis on a single key area that may be ecological,
developmental, economical or some other aspect of an agricultural system (Ruttan, 1991). While no clear and
absolute definition of what would comprise a single worldwide Sustainable Farming System exists, there is an
emerging consensus of the generalized factors which would represent any sustainable form of agriculture
{OECD, 1992). These are practices and technologies that:
(a) use integrated management techniques which maintain ecological integrity both on and off the
farm;
|b) are necessarily site-specific and flexible:

(c)

preserve biodiversity, landscape amenity and other public goods not valued by existing
markets;

(d)

are profitable to producers in the long term; and

{e) are economically efficient from a societal perspective.

This study will attempt to use the above criteria as guidelines for sustainable agriculture.
Unfortunately, this definition, as any other definition, includes an economic component which will be largely
determined by the country or region in question. Technologies which may be practical, socially acceptable and
economically viable for one region may not be worthy of consideration in another.
Another aspect of studies into sustainable agriculture currently found in the literature is that, while
all aspects of the integrated agriculture-environment system must be considered, the vast majority of studies
have dealt with sustainability of the land base (e.g. soil erosion, water quality, chemical use reduction or
agricultural policy) {OECD, 1992). While obviously important, these are not the only components of a sustainable
farming system. The climate or agrometeorological aspects form a key part of any sustainable system and must
also be considered {Figure 1.1). In a recent study of literature search on the subject, it was revealed that none of
the 85 references considered dealt specifically with climate (Baier, 1990).
While the above is still the general rule, there are indications that the study and subsequent
reporting of projects dealing with all aspects of sustainable agriculture is gaining recognition. There are several
recent works which deal primarily with the climates of semi-arid tropics (SAT) and are of particular interest to this
paper {Singh et af., 1990). There have also been several WMO publications dealing with specific aspects of
climate agrometeorology (Stigter, 1988; Karing et aL, 1992). This relative lack of documented material is all the
more surprising when impact of climate has such a dramatic effect on the difficulty of achieving sustainability
(Figure 1.1). In the developed countries of the world the majority of the work and literature seems to appear more
in the form of internal reports, workshop proceedings and selected articles of narrow focus in the scientific
literature. This is obviously due, at least in part, to the short term funding policies which exist in many areas.
Other than some of the basic meteorological data collection programs, which could be applied, there are
relatively few long term projects examining the field of sustainable agriculture.

Figure 1.1 - Generalized representation of the effects of temperature and precipitation on the
difficulty of developing sustainable agricultural systems (after Stewart and El- Swaify, 1991).
12

AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGIES

Available technologies should include not only high technology issues, such as remote sensing, but
also traditional technologies such as those used in developing countries for microclimate management.
Although mechanical or chemical technologies are the ones to be considered in agriculture, several
other forms of technologies such as physical, biological, remote sensing, communications and biotechnology,
which are becoming increasingly common, must also be retrieved.
This paper will not attempt to examine every form and variant of technology which is available
worldwide to agricultural producers. Instead this paper will attempt to focus in on several of the key technologies
which have a strong agrometeorological basis or area of application as well as several of the developing
technologies which have the potential for similar impacts.
1.2.1

Physical measurement technologies

Physical technologies are the direct measurement of physical parameters such as temperature or
the use of a non-contact physical entity such as nuclear radiation. While the use of the techniques and
equipment developed around these technologies does allow for measurements with greater accuracy and
precision it must be recognized that the level of sophistication involved will not be available to everyone.
Equipment utilizing these newer design principles tends to be more expensive, require more precise calibration
and more difficult to maintain. There is often a very steep learning curve, which can only be met by consultation
with the manufacturer, associated with the use of individual pieces of equipment.
The majority of the principle agrometeorological measurements that are routinely made are

physical in nature. These include the assessment of radiation balance components, water balance components,
energy balance components, biometric elements and meteorological elements. Measurement techniques for the
majority of these are both very traditional and routine.
Radiation balance measurements generally involve the use of traditional thermopile or actinometric
sensors. However in recent years there have been an increasing number of photocell based sensors available.
These units offer the advantages of lower size and cost, but they are still not as accurate as the older designs.
Additionally, these sensors have proven easy to interface with modern data logging equipment and by a careful
selection of the sensing units, they can provide spectrally selective sensors. This is a distinct advantage
compared to the use of optical glass filters for the measurement of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR).
This technology has also been recently extended to the design of electronic versions of the widely used
Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorder. Despite the obvious controversy over the use of this measurement instead
of the measurement of the incoming global solar radiation, these sensors do have the advantages of providing
continuity of measurement and being able to be directly interfaced into automated data loggers for unattended
operation.
Water balance measurement techniques have not varied dramatically in recent years. There are
now off-the-shelf evaporation measurement systems available using either the Bowen Ration or the Eddy
Correlation techniques however these are relatively expensive and require a significant labour input from both an
operational and maintenance point of view. The measurement of soil moisture can now be readily accomplished
utilizing the Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) principle. This equipment, while expensive, is now portable,
battery operated, relatively easy to use and capable of being interfaced to a datalogger for unattended operation.
In recent years there has been a tendency for energy balance studies to move to larger scale
experiments such as the BIOME project in North America. Coupled with this are novel ways of examining the
data generated involving site comparisons (Karing et at., 1992).
For biometric measurements there are several newer measurement techniques. There is a trend to
make crop assessment at finer resolutions, moving from the crop as a whole to the single plant and on to the
plant part. The assessment of crop performance through the measurement of the rate of photosynthesis has
become a common procedure. While earlier equipments to do this were slow, particularly when the plant was
under stressed conditions, newer equipment has utilized microprocessor technology with the basic
measurement principles to create much faster and more accurate measurements. Similarly, newer
instrumentation, utilizing laser technology, has reduced the measurement of Leaf Area Index to a point
measurement. This simplified measurement should provide improved input to crop growth or crop evaporative
demand models. Improvements in these areas coupled with crop phenological development observations will be
reflected in more stable and reliable results with improved incorporation into farming system decisions.
One of the primary uses of nuclear radiation in agriculture includes the measurement of soil
moisture and density through the process of neutron attenuation. This process and the equipment required to
make these measurements are now well understood. This measurement technique is now widely used in the
scheduling of irrigation. The technique has the advantage that it allows the user to repeat measurements, over
time, in exactly the same location and in a non-destructive manner. This has allowed the development of
cheque-book types of irrigation scheduling, whenever the measured soil moisture falls below a stipulated
minimum threshold level, by providing irrigation and

5
restoring soil moisture reserves to near optimum. In cases where the equipment is not readily
available on a full time basis, the technique has also been used to provide benchmark data points for soil
moisture, which can be used to adjust process of irrigation scheduling models on a periodic basis.

In a similar manner, soil density and its effects on crop growth can be monitored using nuclear
radioactive techniques. While not typically used on an ongoing basis as the soil moisture measurements are, the
density measurements are incorporated into mathematical crop growth models. These data are particularly
useful in areas, such as solenetzic soils, where rooting activity and moisture/nutrient withdrawal is curtailed by
zones of sub-surface high density soil. Such soils may also have infiltration problems resulting in excessive
runoff and decreased yields in moisture limited areas. When such areas have been identified using nuclear
density metres they can often be improved or rejuvenated through the use of deep ploughing or ripping of the
subsoil structure. Radioactive isotopes of C14, N15 and P32 have been used as radioactive tracers for plant
nutrient uptake, chemical efficacy and translocation studies with various plant-moisture regimes as well as for
studies of the movement of topsoil under erosion conditions or as a result of tillage.
While not purely agrometeorological applications, nuclear sources are currently being used to a
limited degree for the irradiation of food for preservation (Mills, 1987), pest control and the sterilization of
agricultural equipment and related products (Liu et ai, 1990; Liu, 1992).
Due to the problems and constraints associated with the use of radioactive sources for the above
applications newer procedures are being developed which incorporate the use of electronic sources to generate
rapidly pulsing X rays (Batchelor, 1989) which can be used in an equivalent manner.
1.2.2

Atmospheric modification technologies

While the concept of increased carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere has been widely reported
as the potential cause of large scale climate change due to global warming, this phenomena is currently in use
as a constructive agricultural technology. The use of modified atmospheres fall into three predominant areas:
(i)

Enhanced crop growth in enclosed areas such as greenhouses through improved

photosynthetic efficiency;

(ii)

The control of pests in stored foodstuffs; and

(iii)

Extended food storage without spoilage in C02 enhanced atmospheres or inert gas
packaging (Agriculture Canada, 1991).

In the continental areas of the northern hemisphere the concept of an enclosed artificial
atmosphere has also been used for the overwintering of honeybees which would normally die off during the
winter period (McCutcheon, 1984). The concept has also been used for the overwintering/storage of pupae
stage cells of the pollinating bee Megachile rotundata. Use of these techniques has allowed the establishment of
two long term, viable apiculture industries in an area which would not be considered to be climatically optimum.
Atmospheric modification is a larger scale activity involving both the suppression or modification of
the atmosphere. For example, hail suppression and the enhancement of precipitation could be quoted. Due to
the scale of these activities they can only be attempted with the direct support of regional or national
governments. Hail modification programmes were attempted in Italy, Greece and Russia. These programmes
were attempting to both decrease hail size as well as frequency and intensity and produce softer, less damaging
hail with subsequently decreased crop damage. Precipitation enhancement programmes for either rainfall or
snowfall were conducted in California, Italy, Libya and Spain (Smith, 1992). In many cases the objective of these
programmes is to decrease the negative impact of adverse natural conditions. This in turn should decrease inter*
annual variability of the farm operation and increase long term sustainability.
1.2.3

Mechanical technologies

The application of mechanical technologies in agriculture has been focused on the areas of field
preparation, seeding and harvest. While there are obvious developments which have taken place in the
mechanical development of draft equipment, from an agrometeorological point of view the focus has been on the
tillage processes related to seeding and stand establishment with an emphasis on moisture conservation
through decreased surface disturbance and evaporative losses. This emphasis has developed principally from

I '

the semi-arid areas of the world. In relation to Figure 1.1, the aerial environment of any location is capable of
supporting a certain maximum intensity tillage on an ongoing sustainable basis. Both the ongoing use of poorly
adapted traditional tillage practices or their replacement with newer more intensive practices in many parts of the
world has led to serious problems with soil quality (Lai, 1993; Kayombo and Lai, 1993). These problems are
threatening the sustainability of these systems. The recognition of this situation has led such groups as the
International Soil Tillage Research Organization (ISTRO) to hold special meetings to focus the importance of the
tillage operations to the theme of sustainability (ISTRO, 1 993).
Tillage operations are often thought of in terms of the amount of surface disturbance. These
operations range from simple seedbed packing through various intensities of cultivation to moldboard ploughing
which is generally regarded as having 100 per cent incorporation of surface residues, while exposing the
maximum amount of moist subsoil. While there are obvious reasons, from a moisture conservation point of view,
to minimize such tillage operations, their use is often required in order to increase infiltration rates, improve
seedbed seed/soil contact or enhance other soil physical properties required by the chosen crop. Traditional
technology for crops such as groundnut would require at least four field operations in order to complete this.
There appears to be general agreement that a move towards systems involving minimum levels of surface
disturbance and titter incorporation would have benefits for sustainability in agriculture.
In the semi-arid areas of north America conventional tillage systems have included both fall and
spring cultivations. The fall cultivation has typically comprised of one or more passes with a field cultivator and
has been used for the purposes of both breaking up and partially incorporating stubble, applying fertilizers and
improving infiltration. The rationale for this is that frost action during the winter period acts to break up any clods
formed. The fall fertilizer application avoids spring work when time is more limited improved infiltration results in
greater spring soil moisture at the rooting depth. The spring cultivation has comprised one or two shallower
cultivation passes and, depending on the crop being sown, possibly another pass for harrowing and packing, as
well as, the actual seeding pass. Unfortunately, from an agrometeorological position, this system, with the
number of passes involved, results in excessive soil moisture evaporation, denitrification and the loss of organic
matter. The bare soil surface does have more rapid warming in the spring.
Recently, in response to the problems associated with these traditional cultivation
practises, there has been a trend towards lower levels of cultivation. This trend has resulted in what have been
referred to as minimum tillage or zero tillage systems. Both of these systems have the objective of conserving
surface soil moisture and organic matter through decreased soil disturbance. The minimum tillage system typically
involves the use of greater amounts of stubble being left on the field for snow trapping purposes, no fall
cultivation, a single spring cultivation which often includes a fertilizer application and finally the actual seeding
operation. Zero tillage, as its name implies, involves no tillage operations from one seeding period to the next
and leaves maximum standing stubble. Because of this, the system does benefit from better surface soil
moisture but requires the use of a specialized zero till drill in order to both cut through and avoid plugging up with
the stubble, yet still place the seed and fertilizer accurately. The stubble left in both minimum and zero tillage
systems can act to shade the surface and reduce surface soil temperatures at or near the seeding depth.

7
The use of modern seed drills of both the conventional and zero tillage design has resulted in seed
and fertilizer being placed more consistently in the optimal temperature/moisture environment. This improved
placement has resulted in more uniform germination/emergence and more vigourous early growth. Use of these
systems has generally shown a yield advantage (Table 1.1), particularly in abnormally dry years where severe
germination problems can be encountered with traditional cultivation techniques.

Use of reduced tillage systems has sometimes resulted in excessive levels of selected weeds
which have in turn required the increased use of greater reliance on chemical herbicides or selected tillage for
control (Hume et al., 1 991 ). Some researchers feel that this tendency has been reversed. The composition of
the weed population has shifted and stabilized into a new population comprised of a greater proportion of
perennial weeds vs. annual weeds (Froud-Williams, 1988). However, some others have raised doubts if these
changes are related to the tillage system in question or are more temporal in nature (Derksen et ai, 1993). The
increased reliance on chemical herbicides has been keyed to the use of the herbicide glyphosate (Roundup)
in particular. There are now growing concerns that reliance on and selective use of this chemical may create a
selection pressure resulting in a family of glyphosate tolerant weeds.
The use of minimum and to a greater degree zero tillage have resulted in significantly improved
field surface soil moisture conditions, infiltration rates, soil aggregation and improved levels or organic matter
and soil tilth in the form of lower bulk densities (Arshad and Dobb, 1991 ). Due to improved moisture conditions,
use of these systems is contributing to a decrease in the area of land fallowed in arid and semi-arid areas of
North America each year (Statistics Canada, 1993). This has the added benefit of significantly reduced erosion
levels resulting in improved sustainability. Use of minimum and zero tillage systems, with their resulting better
soil moisture conditions, have also resulted in lower year to year yield variability due to drought and other
environmental effects thereby providing improved biological and economic sustainability (Zentner and Campbell,
1988).
Table 1.1- The effects of tillage system on the yield of field pea, flax and spring wheat for the period 1987 1990 at Indian head
Tillage system
Zero Till
Minimum Till
Conventional Till
Contrasts
ZT + MT vs. ct
ZT vs. MT

Field Pea (kg ha M

Flax

Spring Wheat

1935
1973
1785

1473
1501
1208

1883
1895
1558

ft ft
NS

*
NS

Probability Level
*
NS

Significant at the 5% and 1 % levels respectively; NS, not significant. Source: Clayton et al., (1993).
In many areas of the world, reclaimed land or poorly drained clay soils, the use of drainage
technology is an integral part of their programme. These areas can have significant seasonal moisture surpluses
and without adequate drainage they can suffer from nutrient leaching, anaerobic root conditions, poor soil
structure and severe rooting or disease problems. From an agrometeorological point of view these have the
potential to restrict plant growth, yield and the sustainability of the agricultural enterprise. When proper drainage,
possibly combined with surface tillage practices such as soil ridging, are applied to these areas they can be
exceptional producers of high value. Given their typically high soil moisture regime they have the potential to
respond to high levels of fertility and even supplemental irrigation as the growing season progresses. In some
parts of the worlds these areas are used with multiple or relay cropping systems. The first crop following the wet
season is a high moisture demand crop such as vegetables followed by a more drought tolerant crop such as
wheat or barley.
The application of modern technology during the harvest period has expanded dramatically as
agricultural systems have evolved. Today there are technological applications ranging from the pre- harvest
period to long-term storage of agricultural produce. During the pre-harvest, in areas of the world which suffer
from either a short growing season, excess harvest period moisture or climatic variability, the use of chemical
plant desiccants, such as Diquot, or low rate herbicides, such as glyphosate, can be employed as an alternative
to traditional swathing procedures (Clemence, 1989). These chemicals act to disassociate the flow of nutrients to

the plant, terminate plant growth and stop transpiration as a result. The effect of this is a plant which is still
exposed to the elements and can dry down at an enhanced rate. These techniques have proven to be most
useful with potatoes or other high value horticultural crops where the top growth or other portion of the plant is
discarded. Reduced herbicide rate is used in fields where there is a serious problem with growth which would
benefit from the herbicide application. The use of desiccant chemicals can be prohibitively expensive for many
grain crops while herbicides, although more cost effective, can be slow to act {Darwent et a!., 1994). When
swathing is practised, modern equipment design allows for the maximum number of seed heads to be exposed,
thereby providing preferential drying to the grain portion over the straw portion. The traditional equivalent of this
would be cutting and upright stooking of a grain crop to keep it off the ground and promote drying.
Related to the pre-harvest control of the moisture content of the crop is the post-harvest handling
and drying of grain or other crops. While the majority of the sub-tropics have ample heat to utilize in the drying of
grain, other areas such as the temperate or maritime areas of Europe and North America often have only slightly
negative or even positive P-PE balances at this time of the year. These moist conditions can necessitate the
drying of the grain or other product down to levels where long term storage can be accomplished without
spoilage. Numerous technologies have developed to facilitate this although they fall into the two basic categories
of air circulation with and without the application of an external heat source.
1.2.4

Biological technologies

Although there is no traditional equivalent, the biological control of insect pests is a developing area
where the input of agrometeorological information has proven to be of benefit. It is now practical, in many forms
of agriculture and in many geographic areas, to utilize biological control agents. These include forest crops, field
crops, livestock and aquatic vegetation (McClay, 1991). The use of many of these agents requires specific
agrometeorological data, often to substantiate the findings from other detection systems such as pheromone
traps, in order to optimize the timing of application and the impact of the control agent. The use of soil
temperatures and heat units utilizing various base temperatures has been particularly effective as a means of
tracking the development rate of insect pests. Once the pest reaches a key stage of development the control
measure or predator can be invoked for maximum effectiveness. In western Canada, control agents fall into
three broad categories, the predators, parasitoids and pathogens. Predators are comprised of various flies,
beetles, lacewings, thrips, mites and spiders. Parasitoids include fungi, viruses, bacteria and protozoans while
the parasitoid include the parasitic wasps and flies (Yu and Byers, 1993).
The use of biological control procedures has been particularly extensive and successful in
greenhouse crops (Herregods, 1992) where numerous agents have been developed against specific pests.
These have the advantages of being closed systems which preclude the escape of the control agents into the
natural environment, being able to closely observe the stage of development of the pest in question and being
capable of controlling the environment to attain the optimum conditions for successful control of the pest in
question. This technique then allows precise timing of conventional pesticide application resulting in greater
effective control levels, lower pesticide usage (Johnson and Goetet, 1993) and resulting cost savings.
1.2.5

Biotechnological technologies

The use of biotechnological techniques and genetic engineering in agriculture show great potential
for new or improved products suitable for use with both existing and proposed new sustainable production
systems. Recently extensive coverage of specific techniques which have been developed for a large number of
worldwide vegetable, medicinal, cereal, legume, grass, oilseed and forestry crops has been done by Bajaj
(1990). These techniques include the processes of embryo rescue, microspore/ovule culture, induced
somaclonal variation, protoplast fusion and gene transfer. While not all techniques can be used with equal ease,
there are some crops such as Flax and particularly the Brassica oil seed crops which have responded well.
Although progress has been slow there are now numerous new varieties currently undergoing field testing as a
result of these techniques. Both Downey and Keller (1992) and Downey and Rimmer (1993) have given an
excellent overview of the current status of developments in this area for a number of crops with an emphasis on
the Brassica. The majority of these new varieties have been developed to address specific crop needs ranging
from specific herbicide and disease tolerance to generally improved environmental adaptation (Prakash and
Raut, 1983). This appears to have been done both on the basis of ease of development and also for purposes of
marketing. There are also a number of Brassica hybrids currently under going testing in western Canada, if
successful, these lines should result in improved yields although, just as with corn hybrids, seed will be available
from a limited number of suppliers.

From an agrometeorological point of view, these developments in biotechnology hold great promise
and excitement. Through their use (presently underway) there exists the possibility, of crop varieties which have
attributes directly matched to the environmental constraints that they face. Brassica napus varieties now exist
which have been adapted to meet the agrometeorological requirements of new day length and temperature
constraints, improved water use efficiencies and the production of more desirable oil/fatty acid combinations.
These changes in the fatty acid composition are largely due to adaptations in plant with the environment
interactions, an area of direct interest to agrometeorologists. Work is also underway on the development of
varieties which have improved tolerance to salinity and frost.
1.2.6

Remote sensing technologies

Remote sensing is another area where there is no equivalent traditional technology. There are
currently three main forms of this technology in use for agricultural purposes.
These are traditional aircraft based photogrammetric procedures, ground based procedures and
satellite based procedures. Due to the great potential for the application of this technology to agriculture the
remote sensing field has been examined, in some detail, separately in the WMO CAgM Report No. 50 (WMO,
1992). This paper will not attempt to duplicate work already done but will attempt to give a brief overview and
point out some of the agrometeorological aspects of it as they pertain to this report.
Traditional low level aircraft based remote sensing procedures have had a relatively small
agrometeorological component associated with them. Due to the high costs and requirements for clear weather
conditions this form of remote sensing has often been used, after the fact, for survey purposes, when significant
problems have existed. This use has been associated with fires, drought and disease. Recent developments
have placed greater emphasis on the use of modern sensors on these fixed wing platforms with a resulting move
away from film based systems. There are now numerous cases where Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) systems,
with their all-weather sensing capabilities, are being used in such applications. In addition to the all weather
operation, these new sensors provide the capability to penetrate the crop canopy and make assessments of
both crop and soil moisture status. Due largely to the costs associated with aircraft operation, the majority of
these applications are still generally low temporal resolution inventory work. There are relatively few cases
where these have been used in a more real time or feedback scenario such as the survey and control of grazing
(Brown, 1994).
Ground based remote sensing procedures have recently begun to play an important role in the
agrometeorological monitoring of crop development. These procedures have been primarily focused on the use
measurement of canopy temperatures through the use of infrared sensors. Canopy temperature is now routinely
used in the determination of the crop moisture status Jackson etaf., (1977) Seguin etal, (1989) recently applied
these techniques to the assessment of ET in the Sahelian regions. Numerous manufacturers are now producing
battery operated sensors optimized for portable field use in these wavelengths. Related to this is the use of
ground based microwave scatterometer systems which allow the examination of not only the crop at various
moisture conditions but also are able to penetrate down and into the soil surface for an actual measurement of
surface soil moisture (Brown, 1986). While holding great promise, these systems are largely still in the research
phase, require highly trained personnel and are both costly and difficult to use and maintain in a field
environment.
Satellite based remote sensing procedures for crop assessment are currently developing at a
significant rate and are making new products available which will be of great use to the agrometeoro logical
community. While earlier satellites such as the LAND SAT series utilizing visible and infrared radiation (VIR)
lacked resolution and were largely restricted to clear sky and high zenith angle conditions, newer satellites have
largely overcome these problems. The bulk of this development has been focused on the progression from VIR
sensors to the Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to the
area of microwave energy systems. Current application through such devices as RADARSAT is focused on the
areas of vegetation type identification, soil moisture status and crop condition assessment (Canada Centre For
Remote Sensing, 1990). There is also a developing capability for the measurement of such parameters as the
leaf area index (LAI), surface roughness, soil conservation practices and even small precipitation events (Brisco,
1989). The major advantage of these newer systems such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is that they are
capable of operation under virtually all weather conditions and are not affected by cloud cover. This has resulted
in a significant increase in the frequency of coverage and the accuracy of crop models which use the data since
coverage can hit each physiological window as the crop matures. The combination of VIR and SAR data has

10

resulted in improving the accuracy of crop classification from 73% to 92% (Brown, 1986). In addition to the above
crop, specific measurements weather satellite data is now readily available through either public or private
sources. These data are of increasing use for both strategic and tactical forecast purposes with the result that
pressure exists for improved longer term forecast reliability in the order of a seven day forecast.
While the use of remote sensing systems have been, and will continue to be, a valuable component
of the field of agrometeorology, there can be a problem with their use. This problem is the infrastructure required
for the capture/distribution of the data as well as the sheer volume of data that can result from each pass
overhead. This has necessitated the use of computer facilities, software and processing costs often beyond what
is readily available even in developed countries.
While imaging systems account for the vast majority of the satellite applications in agriculture, there
are also non-imaging applications. The recent development of readily available global positioning system (GPS)
hardware has seen the application of this technology to agriculture and agrometeorology. This system is
currently in use for field positioning and the differential treatment of selected areas based on moisture and
salinity conditions (Lachapelle et a!., 1993). Present technology allows for differential measurement accuracy of
approximately 1 m (Cannon and Lachapelle, 1992). Coupled with improved tillage practices, these techniques
allow for the maintenance or improvement of the soil quality in the identified areas. In addition, there is promise
with these systems, as the technology becomes more readily available, for improved application of field
pesticides and herbicides by the incorporation of satellite controlled tramlines and the minimizing of application
overlap.
1.2.7

Communication technologies

With the development of modern electronics and satellite systems, the area of communications
technologies has developed rapidly in the past few years. Today there are several systems in common use that
are keyed directly to the provision of weather forecasts and agrometeorological information. These systems
have been developing in recent years as a cost effective alternative to systems previously used. Al of these
newer systems have the capability for

11
widespread coverage and put an onus on the user to either accept a portion of the cost through the
purchase of a receiving system or by contacting the weather service.

In North America there is a Weather Radio" open broadcast system operational in both the United
States and Canada. This system, which requires the user to purchase a specialized low cost receiver, provides a
continuously updated forecast on designated VHF frequencies of 162.400, 162.475 and 162.550 MHZ. It also
has the capability to provide an audible weather warning service to all radios capable of receiving its signal. This
system was originated for the purposes of providing severe weather warnings for the maritime environments but
has now expanded to cover large inland areas. The system is heavily used by agricultural personnel for tactical
purposes in short term scheduling of farm operations. Similar systems are also in use in other countries.
A more specialized variation of Weather Radio is the Farm Weather Service. In this system the
user dials in to a local telephone and receives a preprogrammed message which includes both short and
mid-term forecasts keyed to the agricultural sector as well as specialized agricultural indices such as hay drying
indices. The preprogrammed messages run off cassette tape and are updated every 6 hours. Messages are
keyed to the field operations typically underway at that time of the year such as seeding, haying or harvest and
can also contain warnings of impending severe weather.
Interactive communication systems have also been considered in some areas. In Canada, the
Telidon system was promoted heavily during the 1980's. This system, which utilized the home television set or
persona! computer linked to a specialized receiver/descrambler, had a routinely updated database which
contained weather forecasts as well as specialized farm weather information. While the system had great
promise, it suffered from high operational costs and excessive effort relative to the perceived benefits. This
excessive effort was on the part of both the provider who had to prepare extensive text and graphical information
and the user who had to log in, advance through numerous menus and then often transcribe information for
future use. This system is now being replaced by the private GLOBAL LINK system which uses its own receiving
dish and broadcasts a continuous stream of text information. With this format the user can simply turn on his
home computer at any time and flip directly to the most recent page of information available, in this case weather
forecast information.
Larger scale systems, which exist, tend to be directed towards both ship and aircraft traffic. These
systems include several satellites established by the Americans (GOES), the European Space Agency
(EUMETSAT), the Russians (GOMMS) and the Japanese. The GOES satellite has a system built into it
(WEFAX) which allows anyone to establish a relatively tow cost ground receiving station. This station can then
receive both charts and data on a separate data channel but not voice information. While typically beyond the
needs and resources of individual farmers, this system is used by universities or other advisory services for the
distribution of agrometeorological information.
1.2.8

Computer and electronic technologies

In recent years, the assessment of the agrometeorological aspects of a region has relied to an
increasing degree on the use of computer technology. This has moved from the simple storage of climate data,
to specialized data handling and analysis packages (CLICOM, 1988; INSTAT, 1 989), and on to the use of
progressively more elaborate crop growth models (Richie, 1972; Godwin et al., 1990) and climate evaluation and
rating systems (De la Rosa, 1992; Mills, 1993). The INSTAT software package is now in use in many different
countries and has proven to be of great use. Many of the more recent models actually contain a weather
generation module which is used to provide the expected variability into the weather/decision making process
(IBSNAT, 1990). Recent developments have also seen the utilization of such related technologies as
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) where each element in an agrometeorological or regional land base
study can be stored, manipulated or displayed as one layer in a multiple layer database having complete spatial
integration (Nix, 1986). GIS systems coupled with Thiessen weighting factors (Williams and Hayhoe, 1982) and
contouring software can now provide computer generated mapping of agrometeorological elements at a fraction
of the time and cost to produce a similar product by hand. Furthermore, the use of computer and electronic
technologies has allowed developments in a number of related areas such as communications which are of
direct benefit to agriculture and the field of agrometeorology. These benefits have included both improved
sensors as well as detection and control systems. Systems are currently in use for diverse agrometeorological
areas such as zoned irrigation controls allowing decreased peak water demands, controlled environment
buildings, storage and growth chambers, weed recognition systems which prevent unnecessary or excessive
chemical spraying and early frost warning systems for orchards. By utilization of correct algorithms with these

12

systems it is possible to gain maximum benefit from the basic meteorological data available.
Computer technologies are now being utilized at both the research/extension level as well as at the
farm level. There are literally hundreds of computer programmes available to run on personal computers of all
types. Due in part to the proliferation of this computer software many government agriculture departments are
establishing software directories which try to both promote on-farm computer use and aid in the selection of the
best software available {Alberta Agriculture, 1992). Much of this software is directed towards farm financial
management, but there are numerous areas which are of interest to agrometeorology also. These include
irrigation scheduling, weather monitoring, land management and decision support systems keyed to crops,
livestock management, spraying, integrated pest management and tillage. Several of these programmes are
now focused on the long term sustainable aspects of farming systems such as minimizing soil erosion through
selective tillage/cropping practices (PFRA, 1993a).
Use of computer and electronic technologies have also been of great benefit in the collection of
agrometeorological data. As short a time as 20 years ago data collection was done by hand or with automated
systems relying on mains power. This resulted in data sets which had sparse coverage and were of unreliable
quality. This is not the case today as there are currently numerous manufacturers of battery/solar powered data
logging equipment which are ideally suited for application in remote areas where mains power and high level
information systems are unavailable. Coupled with the development of the data loggers are modern low
power/high reliability sensors which have helped to improve the quality of data being collected. The rapid
advances in these areas has led to the development of newer data collection standards and standardized
datalogger programmes specifically for use with automated stations (King and Trivers, 1992; Environment
Canada, 1992).
These data loggers, which can also be interrogated through radio or satellite telemetry systems,
have allowed the acquisition of agrometeorological data, with its inherent benefits. Because of this new
capability there are currently proposals in place to develop regionally representative meteorological stations in
all member countries of the WMO. On a national scale, as an example, there are numerous provincial real time
networks of automated climate stations and other developments such as the Regional Climate Network
programme and the Agri-Environmental Indicators programme being developed in Canada. These will be used
to provide routine surface meteorological data, detect climate change and provide a set of long term environmental
indicators, for all aspects of the environment, which can be used to monitor long term agricultural sustainability
{Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1993).
1.2.9

Integrated field-level technologies

The use of integrated field-scale technologies for the improvement of agricultural productivity and
sustainability is common worldwide. These systems are keyed to the concept of improving the overall Water Use
Efficiency (WUE) of the crop in question. Even in the more humid areas of the world, this is still seen as a valid
objective in the ongoing development of farming systems. While there are recognized steps which must be taken
for advances in this area to occur (Sinclair et a/., 1984) it should be pointed out that without additional water
inputs, major improvements should not be expected and that dryer areas of the world must be relegated as such
(Stewart and Steiner, 1990). Components utilized in the development of such integrated systems are comprised
of mulch systems, shading systems, strip cropping or fallow systems, snow trapping.
shelterbelt systems, green manuring, varying plant densities, intercropping and relay cropping. Many of these
systems are refinements of traditional technologies which have been examined or expanded to address specific
limiting conditions.
In many areas of the world, high surface soil temperatures can be considered to be a severe
restriction to the development of sustainable farming systems. These temperatures, often in excess of 50 C
(Sivakumar, 1992), put severe stress on any live plants growing in the area and promote exceptionally high
evaporative rates. In many parts of the SAT, Indian subcontinent and the semi-arid areas of the great plains of
north America, the use of stubble and residue management technology is currently being employed (Papendiek
et a/., 1990) to directly counteract high surface soil temperatures (Table 1.2). There can be conflicting objectives
with some traditional systems where stubble is required as animal fodder and is grazed off following the crop
harvest. While it appears that due to the number of soil, crop and environmental factors involved there has never
been a comprehensive review of this technology. It is never the less being used to counter high surface soil
temperatures, decrease runoff, decrease the evaporative demand, improve yields and provide beneficial inputs
into the soil system (Allmaras et at., 1991). The use of mulches has been shown to have significant benefits on

13

both grain yield and water use efficiency (Table 1.3). Mulching, for purposes of decreasing evaporative demand
and increasing yields, to some degree is an accepted component of virtually all cropping/tillage systems in the
SAT (ISTRO, 1993). When combined with conservation tillage procedures the benefits of mulching can be
compounded (Table 1.4).
Table 1.2 Average daily soil surface temperature during a 5-week, August-September period
in Akron, Colorado
Straw Position

Soil Surface Temperature (C)

Bare soil
Flat straw
% flat, % standing
% flat, % standing

47.8 c
41.7 b
39.6 b
32.2 a

Source: Ungar (1990)

Table 1.3 -

Straw mulch effects on soil water storage during fallow, water storage efficiency,
and dryland grain sorghum yield in Bushland, Texas, 1973-1976

Mulch rate (Mg

ha'1)

Water
storage
(mm)

Storage
efficiency
(%}

Grain yield
(Mg ha'1)

0
1
2
4

72 c
99 b
100 b
116 b
139 b
147 a

22.6 c
31,1 b
31.4 b
36.5 b
43.7 a
46.2 a

1.78 c
2.41 b
2.60 b
2.98 b
3.68 a
3.99 a

8
12
Source: Ungar (1990)

Total water (mm) WUE (kg m^

320
330
353
357
365
347

0.56
0.73
0.74
0.84
1.01
1.15

A variant on the use of mulching procedures which has been used successfully for the reduction of
solar input, and hence surface temperatures and evaporation, is the use of shading systems. In North America
the slow growing but very high value root crop American ginseng (Panax quinquefolium L.) is grown for export.
This crop requires warm conditions, diffuse radiation and well drained soils for optimum growth but will not
tolerate high temperatures or moisture stress conditions. As a result, it is grown in several areas having a long
growing season under horizontal polypropylene or wooden shading materials elevated approximately 2 metres
above the ground and in combination with a coarse surface mulch and irrigation. This is intended to simulate a
closed crown deciduous forest understorey environment. Use of such a system results in a decrease in the solar
and net radiation of up to 75%, reduced windspeeds, warmer air temperatures yet lower evaporation effectively
minimizing the requirement for irrigation {Stathers and Bailey, 1986). Variations of this technology have also
been used with horticultural crops in areas of Australia, Central America, Hawaii and the southern United States
where irradiance levels are high causing excessive evaporative demands {Bailey, Personal Communication).
Due to the high infrastructure costs, these techniques have typically been used only with high value horticultural
crops. In Central America, it is used to promote the quality criteria demanded by the marketplace for Tobacco
wrapper leaves. Once established, the shading system does have an extended life expectancy.
Table 1.4 Effect of tillage and mulching on soil moisture and grain crop yields
Tillage method

Soil moisture content (% vol.)

Grain yield {kg ha'1)

Growing days

Conventional tillage
Conventional tillage + mulch
Strip tillage
Zeo tillage

Crops

68

109

118

144

Maize

Soybean

24.4
26.2
25.5
25.1

18.0
18.7

16.6
18.4

17.7
17.0

4215
4625

716
936

19.5
17.9

19.1
18.1

16.2
16.6

4155
4715

678
750

Source: Biamah eta!., (1993).

Strip cropping, sometimes referred to as fallow cropping, has also been successfully employed in

14

many areas having marginal agricultural capability due to limited moisture reserves. This technology is in use at
both the traditional level and developed or industrialized levels of agriculture and simply involves cropping and
fallowing the land area in alternate years through either the use of strips the width of the available cultivation
equipment or set aside areas from non-mechanized tillage systems. During the fallow period, sufficient moisture
is accumulated to either decrease the probability of crop failure during the following crop year or provide
enhanced crop yields or both. As a relatively low level technology, there are several agrometeorological
arguments which can be brought against this practise from a sustainability point of view. The requirement to
minimize weed growth for purposes of both weed control and moisture conservation during the fallow period can
require frequent tillage operations which negatively impact the efficiency of this approach. This practise has also
been associated with declining soil organic matter, increased soil erodability and increased soil salinization
(Campbell and Biederbeck, 1980). Summerfallow is used in some countries although it is an inefficient method of
conserving water {Nicholaichuk, 1984a). Under a continental semi-arid environment Carder and Henning, (1966)
found that as little as 6% of the total precipitation over a 20 month period was actually stored and available for
future crop use. Other work under a similar environment has shown that gaseous losses of nitrogen to be 2 to 5
times higher from fallow than from cropped land (Aulakh et a/., 1983). More recent work has suggested that the
use of perennial or annual legume green-manure plowdown crops are a viable alternative to this practise {Rice
ef at., 1993).
The use of the fallow rotation system has been developed principally with the agrometeorological
objectives of conserving moisture. While it was successful, it is now recognised that serious long term damage to
the soil structure can result from its extended use and thereby limiting the sustainability of the farming operation.
As a result of these shortcoming the acceptance of green manure/plowdown technologies has increased
dramatically in recent years. This technology involves the replacement of a fallow period with either an annual or
perennial crop which fixes nitrogen and can be ploughed under. The use of green manure systems have
numerous benefits from both soil sustainability and productivity points of view. Amounts of N fixed annually by
legume species have been reported at up to 220 kg ha' 1 {Rice and Hoyt, 1980). Rice and Biederbeck, (1983)
showed that the amount of nitrogen fixed appears to be inversely related to the initial level of soil organic matter
(Table 1.5) and that the amount of N actually added to the soil was greatly increased if the entire legume was
incorporated as green manure and not harvested as hay or feed. This fixed nitrogen then becomes directly
available for use by subsequent crops.
In addition to the provision of soil N for subsequent crop use, green manuring has also been shown
to have many apparent advantages. These have included improving soil tilth, bulk density, pore size distribution,
porosity, aggregate size distribution and organic matter levels. In addition, there have been overall
improvements in the soils water holding capacity and infiltration rate. The selection of a green manure crop is
largely related to the moisture environment. In drier areas, pulse crops such as fababeans or annual legumes
such as the Tangier flatpea are favoured while in moist areas tend to utilize perennial legumes such as alsike or
red clover. While they do not fix the same amount of nitrogen as the legumes, pulse crops have the advantage of
providing a cash crop. Extended use of these crops in very dry areas can have a negative impact through the
action of their deep root systems depleting subsoil moisture reserves.
A more integrated moisture conservation technology that is specific to high latitudes of temperate
regions has been the use of snow trapping technology (Gray, 1970). Pomeroy and Gray (1993) have produced a
very comprehensive updated review of this technology. This procedure has been developed in several forms
ranging from the creation of a rougher surface to the use of higher than normal stubble or even tall grass strips
between wider areas of cereal crops (Brandt et at., 1993). Early concerns that these techniques would result in
increased runoff have been discounted (Nicholaichuk, 1984b). The technique involves in the simplest form
simply cutting the crop in such a way as to leave a taller than normal stubble on the ground. This stubble acts to
decrease windspeeds near the ground with resulting deposition of snow within the stubble and subsequently
increased soil moisture reserves upon snowmelt (Table 1.6). Other forms of this technology involve the creation
of an undulating surface by cutting alternate strips of stubble at differing heights, tilting the cutting head of the
combine to create a sawtooth pattern or deflecting extra crop in the outside edges of the header with resulting
changes in the effective cutting height. The most elaborate form of this technology involves the establishment of
strips of tall perennial grasses between the wider cropped strips. These grass strips essentially act as small
windbreaks. When used in combination with reduced tillage systems the agrometeorological aspects of this
technology can be clearly seen in much improved soil moisture status and resulting crop growth.
In areas of the world characterized by significant advection, the use of windbreaks or shelterbelts

15

has become common. These belts of trees or shrubs act to break-up the pattern of the wind, decrease
evaporative losses and create enhanced environments on both the windward and leeward sides of the belt.
Shelterbelts have been studied and reported on extensively during the last several years. A technical note on
this subject published by the WMO as early as in 1964 listed over 900 references (WMO, 1964). Kort (1988a)
reviewed available literature dealing with the crop related aspects of this topic. A secondary benefit of this
technology is the provision of natural field boundaries for grazing purposes and fuel in the form of wood. There
are cases where the fuel demand has been so high that the actual windbreak has been cut off.
Windbreaks have been designed to address a number of problems with both environmental and manmade
causes. These problems have focused on the areas of excessive evaporation and soil erosion. The optimum
composition, size and orientation of these shelterbelts varies around the world, depending primarily on the
adapted species available, the characteristics of the prevailing winds and the moisture environment. From the
standpoint of sustainable agriculture the presence of these shelterbelts has been shown to decrease windspeed
and hence evaporation rates primarily on the leeward side of the shelterbelt. This has resulted in both improved
yields and perhaps more importantly decreased inter-annual variability (Kort, 1988a) particularly when extremes
in inter-annual weather conditions occurred. An added benefit of the reduced windspeeds is the reduction in the
amount of wind based soil erosion (Kort, 1988b). Computer software has become available recently bringing out
the economic value of windbreaks and with an economic assessment of the size, shape, age and orientation of a
windbreak (PFRA, 1933b).
Table 1.5 - Calculated energy inputs for cropping rotations with and without legumes in the four soil zones in
Alberta.
Energy inputs (MJ ha' )
Inputs

Brown

F-W-F-r'

Dark Brown

GM-W-F-W

F-W-B

GM-W-B

Black

Grey Luvisol

F-C-B-B GM-C-B- F-C-B-B GM-C-BB

B

Machinery production

414.2

414.2

506.4

506.4

844.9

844.9

844.9

944.9

Machinery maintenance
Gasoline

301.0
91 1.8

301.0
911.8

365.2
1357.15

365.2
1309.0

609.4
756.4

609.4
756.4

609.4
869.9

609.4
869.9

Diesel fuel
Nitrogen

729.8
652.1

673.1
54.2

1011.6

758.4
674.4

1941.9
3040.6

1773.2
1390.9

2232.4
5045.9

2038.7
2588.1

Phosphorus
Seed

71.2
845.5

122.2
966.8

115.3
1418.9

183.2
1580.5

298.9
1070.3

298.9
1389.2

315.6
1070.3

316.6
1389.2

17.8
3.2

17.8
3.2

24.8
6.5

24.8
6.5

669.4
5.0

53.4
B.o

3464.3

6688.3

5408.4

9136.8

7121.3

Herbicide
Labour
Total

3946.6

1882.1

569.4
6.7
11564. 5

53.4
6.7
8715.9

Energy conservation from

legumes in rotation

Net energy (MJ ha'1)

Fuel (MJ

ha1)

Diesel equivalent (L ha1)

Fertilizer (MJ ha1)
Fertilizer-N equivalent (kg ha1)

482.3

1279.9

2015.5

2848.6

56.7

301.7

168.5

193.4

1.4

7.3

4.1

546.9

1 139.8

1649.7

5.4

1 1.3

16.3

Source: Rice and Biederbeck (1983)

** Crop rotation designation: F = Fallow, W = Barley, GM = Green Manure, C = Canola

4.7
2457.8
24.3

16

Table 1.6- Field comparisons of stubble management practices upon snow trapping in Saskatchewan
Practice
Tall stubble
Deflector strips
Alternate height
Tall Wheatgrass
Average
11n

Snow water
trapped (cm)

Increased snow water

trapped (cm)

Treatment/
control1

6.6
6.1
6.1
7.6

5.1
5.1
4.8
3.6
4.7

1.30
1.20
1.27

6.6
an adjacent field of uniform height stubble. Source: Brandt et a!., (1993).

2 11
1.40

The philosophies behind the use of windbreak technologies have recently been applied to the
integration of forestry and grazing operations. Traditional clear-cutting forest harvest and reforestation
practices are now being challenged as being unsustainable and subject to erosion, depreciation of wildlife
habitat, decreased moisture retention and the development of monoculture ecologies. Reforestation
programmes, at the same time, often face severe problems with competition from fast growing native
grass species choking out transplanted tree stocks. In an effort to correct these problems, work is now
underway to examine the potential for the controlled use of grazing livestock, typically sheep, with a
rotational reforestation programme as an integrated silvi-pastoral

17
system providing an alternative to extensive mechanical seedbed preparation or the use of preseeding
chemical herbicides (Negrave, 1993; Newsome etal., 1993). There is concern that excessive grazing in
these situations could aggravate the situation as overgrazing has done in some parts of the SAT. Site
degradation in the form of soil compaction has been observed in areas of heavy grazing or during moist
conditions (Negrave, 1994). Widespread, yet controlled, adoption of such technology could have
agrometeorological benefits for sustainable agriculture, Development of such systems would reduce
pressures on the annual grazing of stubble fields which would subsequently allow incorporation of organic
matter with improvements in the soil structure, water holding capacity and infiltration rates. Although there
is obvious potential for the use of this approach, further research would appear to be warranted.

In the SAT, tillage in particular has evolved in an effort to create systems that provide optimum
yield and yet are both sustainable and resilient enough to work effectively with the variable rainfall patterns
of the area (Nicou and Charreau, 1985). These systems include deep ploughing or sub-soiling, ridging,
ridging on the contours, tied ridges and paddy systems. All of these make an effort to either increase the
general infiltration and storage of moisture during the monsoon period or contain the moisture on the
surface for subsequent use (Ohm et al., 1 985). Some traditional hand or animal based tillage systems
have had trouble being too superficial to meet this objective. Subsequent cropping systems have so been
adapted to make optimum use of the resulting stored soil moisture. Some of these adaptations have
included the relay cropping of multiple crops within one calendar year, selection of genotypes based on
moisture reserves, paddy agriculture, optimized long term crop rotations and the use of perennial or fall
seeded crops to utilize early season moisture more efficiently. Intercropping systems have also been
developed to optimize use of different areas of the field. These systems utilize the different moisture
regimes found on various parts o hill slopes or between rows of a differing primary crop on level ground.
In addition to trying to store the maximum amount of soil moisture possible during wet periods,
recent efforts have also focused on efforts to make efficient use of that water or improve the water use
efficiency (WUE) of the crop. Numerous approaches have been utilized to do this. These approaches have
generally focused on either the reduction of the vaporation component through the use of mulches or other
procedures (Table 1.3) or the enhancement of the transpiration component. This is typically done through
the use of improved crop varieties, adjusted seeding and fertility rates or perennial crops utilizing early
season moisture. The combined effects of these measures have been seen in the form of increased WUE,
more rapid increases in the Leaf Area Index, improved photosynthetic efficiency, decreased evaporative
losses and improved yield with adjustment of the yield components. The use of these improved varieties
and adjusted seeding rates has not been restricted to cereal crops. These techniques have also been
successfully applied to the growth of fruit trees through the use of dwarf rootstock allowing an increase in
the number of trees per unit area and the subsequent WUE.
1.2.10

Chemical technologies

Chemical technology for agricultural purposes is an area which, to a large degree has no
traditional equivalents, yet has seen a steady increase through the last 30 or 40 years. Chemical
technologies available today fall into a few primary areas. These areas are application of fertilizers for
promoting crop growth, use of crop protection chemicals including herbicides, fungicides and pesticides
and provision of specialized chemicals such as pheromones. While a detailed analysis of the role and use
of chemical technology is beyond the scope of this paper, there are certain aspects which have an
agrometeorological component which must be addressed. These aspects include the role of Integrated
Pest Management procedures, the generation of nitrous oxides, methane and carbon dioxide as a result of
excess fertilizer usage or other agricultural practices and the differential efficacy of applied chemicals as a
result of differences in climatic conditions or application procedures.
Integrated Pest Management (IPM) procedures have been developed over the past 20 or so
years in an effort to achieve improved results from chemical applications and at the same time
reduce the use to decrease the pollution to the atmosphere and minimize the cost of such chemicals to an
absolute minimum. These procedures involve both monitoring the target problem (plant, insect or disease)
to determine the period of maximum susceptibility and then applying the required chemicals for optimum
effect. In many instances the use of this approach requires a knowledge and monitoring of
agrometeorological conditions such as moisture status, heat unit development or forecast conditions
which will either improve the overall effectiveness or preclude the application until more suitable
conditions exist.

18
The generation of methane, carbon dioxide or other "greenhouse gases" from agricultural
surfaces is an area of study which, with the current level of interest in climatic change, has seen rapid
development in recent years. It is, therefore, important to maintain these fluxes within the normal bounds
which would be expected as part of typically healthy carbon and nitrogen cycles. The production of these
gas fluxes is related to levels and form of applied fertilizer, microbiological activity in the soil, deforestation
or as a result of environmental conditions (Singh and Gupta, 1977). Carbon dioxide fluxes have been
routinely measured for some time using micrometeorological profile techniques (McGinn and King, 1990).
Recently, the development of newer instrumentation based on laser principles has allowed the extension
of these techniques to other trace gases including the nitrous oxides (Edwards et at., 1993). The study of
these gas fluxes is of significance from a sustainability and climatic change point of view. Utilization of the
above measurements with other basic agrometeorological studies into crop growth and performance
should allow the development of optimum cropping, tillage and fertilization practices keyed to long term
sustainable agricultural policies and minimal climate change impact.

The development of sustainable agricultural systems directly implies the continued long term
use of each component of that system. Use of herbicides and other chemicals are directly related to the
climate of the area in which they are being applied. It is recognized that as the soil/plant/atmosphere
environment changes, so also will the efficacy of chemicals applied (Muzik, 1976). This is particularly true
with respect to the temperature at which a chemical is applied affecting its activity and the moisture status
of the plant affecting its rate of uptake. From an agrometeorological point of view this implies the need for
detailed efficacy coupled with environment studies involving such areas as temperature, crop growth
phase, crop moisture status, as well as such areas as irradiance levels, daylength and the crop
microenvironment in the area of application or disease propagation. The application of various sprays and
chemicals is often restricted or distorted by excessively windy conditions. These types of conditions can
result in improper application rates or chemical in question. Newer technologies involving mechanical
shields protecting the sprayer from the wind as welt as pressure/sprayer head configurations which
control droplet size are largely overcoming these problems. Use of these technologies has the added
benefit that due to increased efficiency of application, producers are able to use somewhat lower
application rates or quantities of the chemicals involved.
Despite the apparent successes with the use of many chemicals it is now recognised that,
particularly in areas of intensive agriculture or heavy precipitation, there may be serious environmental
drawbacks associated with their use. Many of these problems are related to the buildup of excess applied
chemicals in the soil or the leaching of chemicals into groundwater supplies used by both animals and
humans. Several countries have, or are in the process of, passing legislation which curtails the extent,
timing and authorized use of such products (OECD, 1992). Related to this are the excessive quantities of
manure being generated in some areas. Similar legislation is also being put forward to limit the animal
population to a value for which the land can safely dispose of the expected amount of manure generated
on an ongoing basis. Excess quantities must be hauled to areas where the animal populations, and hence
manure accumulations, are lower.
1.2.11

Adaptive technologies

The use of agrometeorological information, techniques and data for the promotion of
sustainable farming systems around the world has been keyed to the related areas of risk reduction and
moisture conservation. Risk reduction as a component of sustainable farming systems has

19
examined climatic variability, probability of occurrence of selected conditions, diversification of the farming
system, timing of various farm operations and intercropping, coupled with improved rotations and varietal
selection to optimize expected conditions. Moisture conservation has in turn focused on reduced tillage,
surface modification to reduce surface temperatures, irrigation and improving water use efficiencies.

The potential for an unstable climate, or large scale climate change, has been repeatedly
brought to the attention of both the scientific community and general public in recent years. While many feel
that such change is inevitable and that little can be done, the rate of such change or changes in the climates
inherent variability is still relatively slow. The effects of a variation in the expected climate have been clearly
shown, where an apparent shift in the climate of the SAT occurred in 1971 (Kanemasu et ai., 1990). His
analysis showed the relationship between the duration of monsoon cropping season, the date of the onset of
the monsoons and the rainfall amount during the cropping season for the pre-1971 and post-1971 periods.
Use of this type of agrometeorological information is of direct benefit to agriculture and allows a number of
policy related conclusions, or early warning strategies to be drawn. For example, such information could be of
use in the timing of seeding operations to the onset of the monsoon season (Sivakumar, 1988). Morin (1983)
outlined the system which utilizes a computer analysis of rainfall events and water management techniques at
the basin level for the development of a sustainable system. In other areas there has been gradual
translocation of agricultural practises or extension into newer areas. In some cases this expansion or
translocation has been allowed by the development of more efficient farming equipment which reduces the
time requirements for various operations and hence reduces the risk elements associated with the timing
relative to weather conditions. In northern latitudes, many areas which were once considered non-arable due
to the problems associated with clearing the heavy forest cover are now able to be economically farmed.
Related to the variability of the climate is the study of the probability of a given set of conditions
occurring in a stable climate. These types of analyses have been applied extensively to the occurrence of
precipitation (Robertson, 1976, 1985), heat accumulation (Gordon and Bootsma, 1993) as well as extreme
events such as frost (Bootsma, 1980). Recent work in this area included the probability of the length of the
growing season relative to the onset of the monsoons (Table 1.7). Use of data generated from these types of
analyses can allow the agrometeorologist to make recommendations on a number of areas and particularly in
those where the climate is bounded by extreme conditions which occur outside the monsoon season in the
SAT.
Table 1.7 - Probability of the length of the growing season exceeding specified durations for variable onset
of rains at Dedougou, Burkina Faso
Length of growing season (days) exceeding

Date of onset of rains

30 April
10 May
20 May
30 May
9 June
Source: after Sivakumar (1992)

110

130

150

170

100
99
94

94
80
58
38

58
38

16
4

16
4

16

1
1
0

80
58

From Table 1.7, it is obvious that in many areas of the SAT and in other semi-arid climates,
amount of precipitation and its spatial or temporal variability may be such that they preclude annual cropping
systems or at best make them extremely marginal. Existing marginal annual cropping areas under these
conditions may suffer from poor farming practices, a lack of soil organic matter or overgrazing. These areas
may suffer severe soil degradation or even abandonment. In these cases a shift to a less intensive
agro-pastoral system may be in order (Sivakumar et ai., 1992). This system,
recognizing the pressures on food production, population increases and the unsustainable nature of annual
cropping in these areas, recommended a more comprehensive integrated approach to these problems. This
approach would include studies of the climatic risks, soil chemical and hydraulic properties, appropriate crop and
animal varieties as well as the use of intercropping and relay cropping systems. The objectives of this system are
to provide a source of livelihood, improve or re-establish the productive capacity of the soil, reduce the
vulnerability of the system due to single crop dependence and thereby increase its long term sustainability.

20

A large part of the emphasis in a system of this type is naturally on the tactical decisions pertaining
to the cropping sequence each year. One main reason is the importance of the rainy season for both the
provision of grain for human consumption and for the production of forage for livestock. Recent efforts to develop
systems capable of predicting the onset of the monsoon season show great potential as a planning tool. By
combining the information pertaining to the onset of the monsoons with cropping decisions and improved tillage
techniques, gains in net long term productivity can be realized. For example, in years when the growing season
is expected to be short due to delays in the onset of monsoon, an intercropping system of pearl millet and
groundnut or cowpea could be utilized. This system would require approximately 1 50 days for maturity. In other
years {early onset of monsoon) a system of soybean or maize with pigeonpea or millet could be used giving yield
advantages. This cycle could then be followed by a second relay crop of cowpea which, although it would take
advantage of the late season moisture, would not be expected to mature and would be harvested for hay. This
system would require approximately 210 days for maturity. Similar procedures have been recommended for the
Indian sub-continent (WMO, 1992).
1.3

Conclusions and recommendations

This report has addressed a number of primary technology areas which through an
agrometeorological aspect or component can be used to promote sustainable farming systems. The principle
emphasis of these technologies has been seen to be the conservation of soil moisture. Technologies such as
green manuring and mulching systems have been used respectively to achieve this through changes in soil
properties, such as infiltration and water holding capacity as well as a decrease in the surface soil evaporative
flux. The use of microelectronics and remote sensing technologies now allow the widespread use of newer
sensors and monitoring systems to be incorporated over wide areas. These systems are now capable of
providing real-time feedback on crop, soil or weather conditions over these areas which can be fed directly into
forecast or other communication systems for both strategic and tactical decisions. Because these systems are
inherently passive and they have no direct impact on the farming operation they can only be of benefit in the
development of sustainable systems.
The most successful endeavours towards the overall objective are the integrated field level
technologies and the adaptive technologies. The great virtue of developments in these areas is that they do not
rely on any one single component but build on the strengths of several which reinforce each other. This has the
advantage that in years when one component fails for whatever reason, the other areas are robust enough to
pick up the slack and minimize the impact on the individual farming operation. The efficiency and effectiveness
of any particular technology is therefore directly dependent on the relationship between the weather, the
technology in question and the desired final objective.
The promotion of sustainable farming systems can only be done in situations where the people
involved have the ability to adopt systems which are proved to be superior. If region is poor, or suffering to such
a degree, then survival is the principle cause of concern and potential for the consideration of technologies that
will promote long term sustainability will not get priority or even consideration. This paper has attempted to
address a number of primary technological areas, such as green manuring, which contribute to the development
of sustainable systems or, in the case of biotechnology, hold significant potential to do so. Given the wide range
of technologies outlined, it would be unreasonable to expect that they would all be generally applicable. Any
technology has certain ctimatic social or economic constraints within which it must operate and it is up to the end

21
user to experiment and decide which technology or combination of technologies can provide the
greatest holistic benefit in his environment.

The technologies outlined are directed towards those areas where there is some degree of
affluence and there is a general will to consider concepts which might hold up to scrutiny in that region and be of
long term benefit. The adoption of these technologies will require both promotion by the individual governments
concerned and the backing of international consultive agencies such as the World Meteorological Organization,
Food and Agricultural Organization and International Agricultural Research Institute. This can only be done
through clearly mandated policy decisions. It is hoped that the technologies outlined within this paper and the
recommendations below might be used as background information useful in the formulation of such policies.

1.4

Studies should be undertaken on the interrelationships between Harvest Index and Water
Use Efficiency. A three dimensional surface should be constructed based on long term data
which reflects the probability of occurring of these conditions. These probabilities could be
used for the selection of optimally sustainable farming systems.

Given the proven benefits of green manure technology, tillage systems should be developed
worldwide and particularly for the SAT with the objective of incorporating those systems into
existing farming systems or modifying those systems to leave the maximum amount of
surface mulch possible.

In areas affected by monsoon type of rainfall, national weather services should provide
strategic information pertaining to the expected date of onset of monsoon. There should be
continued development of weather forecasts which are keyed to agriculture and which can
be used for day-to-day tactical decision especially during the seeding and harvest periods.

Modification of traditional cropping systems should be encouraged when the early onset of
the monsoons allow alternative multiple cropping plans to be developed, providing greater
income to the farmer.

There should be a move away from fallow based agriculture and towards generally reduced
levels of tillage and, where feasible, the adoption of zero-tillage procedures. This would allow
development of systems which conserve soil moisture and therefore are better able to
handle drought periods.

The development of widespread networks of automated weather stations monitoring soil

temperature and soil moisture should become encouraged by National Meteorological
Services.

The promotion of windbreak systems should be promoted as a priority issue in all

semi-arid areas.

Continued developments in biotechnology should receive support in view of tis greater

potential to provide cropping systems capable of being more efficiently utilized under
conditions of meteorological extremes,

Development of integrated pest, disease and fertility management programmes utilizing

agrometeorological data as inputs should be promoted in order to minimize problems
associated with the excessive use of chemicals and fertilizers and for reducing pollution to
the atmosphere.

Integrated field level technologies and adaptive procedures which are robust enough to be
utilized over wide areas should be promoted.
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29

CHAPTER 2
ADAPTATION OF FARMING SYSTEMS AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE, INCLUDING MODELLING
OF CROPS, PASTURE AND ANIMAL PRODUCTION
by O.D. Sirotenko
2.1

INTRODUCTION

The International organizations dealing with environmental aspects, pay increasingly special
attention to the problems of adaptation in agriculture to expected changes in climate and other
environmental components. The WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is
dealing with the subject of climate change through 3 international working groups established for this
purpose. The Working Group II of the IPCC dealt with Agriculture and Forestry". A fairly comprehensive
report has been prepared by the group. This review includes the recent publications (primarily since 1990)
which have not bee reflected in the summary reports of the above mentioned working group.
The structure of the presentation is based on the following considerations. Assessments of
impact of climate change and increased concentrations of greenhouse gases on agriculture, require:
(a)

Reliable regional scenarios of expected climatic changes;

(b)

Mathematical models capable of making good assessments of crop yield to changes in

climatic parameters, increase in concentration of greenhouse gases and soil
degradation.

These issues are dealt with in this report. A separate section covers the studies on systematic
analysis of the problem, extension of the knowledge basis related to it and development of the
methodology.
Adaptation of agriculture to these changes is a composite interdisciplinary area in which
significant role is played by exogenic factors including climatic parameters and C0 2, tropospheric ozone,
ultraviolet radiation UV-B and soil organic matter.
The report uses the same concept running target, experiments on impact and, etc.
experiments on adjustment, etc. as defined by Parry and Carter (1988).
Projections of impact of global warming (for different continents) is given in the second chapter
of this report. This chapter includes a paragraph on regional assessment. The third chapter presents the
later information on assessing the effect of climate change and variability on grassland productivity,
livestock and soil fertility. The section also deals with the adaptation of farming systems to expected
environmental changes.
2.2

METHODOLOGY FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND

VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURE

2.2.1

Climate change scenarios

The current methods of reproducing climate are based on three-dimensional general

circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere. However though, GCMs are used with much success to
reproduce main characteristics of the general circulation. However, regional climatic features are reflected
with the accuracy and spatial details insufficient for agrometeorological tasks. Most of the currently used
GCMs have horizontal resolution 2.5-10, which, on the average, corresponds to the spatial grid size of 250
to 1000 km. Such a grid does not account for major terrain features (mountain systems, large lakes, etc.).
The main impediment to the development of global GCMs with spatial scale of less than 30 km in the next 5
to 10 years will remain to be the resources required for the use of computer time (Seargi and Mearns,
1990). Certain hopes of improving simulation of regional climate are associated with usage of mesoscale
nested grids (detailed review of this approach is given, Seargi and Mearns, 1990). Application of this
method, even though considerable computer costs are involved, is justified for the major regions of the
world and seasons (e.g. the regional climate model for Australia) (McGregor et a/., 1991).

30

Another associated problem is the considerable discrepancy that exists between scenarios of
different models. A comparison of four different GCMs shows that the correlation coefficients are positive
and significant for winter temperature anomalies, whereas for summer temperatures and precipitation
anomalies, there is practically no correlation in (L. Hydrometeoizdat, 1991).
Considerable work has been done on climate scenarios by the IPCC Working Group I (IPCC,
1990) which recommended for practical use scenarios developed with models UKMO (Meteorological
Office, U.K.), GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, USA) and CCC (Canadian Climate
Center).
The GCM scenario approach has been used in a number of comprehensive studies (Parry
eta!., 1988, Smith and Tirpak, 1989).
Paleociimatic reconstruction of the past warm period is less frequently used to project future
climate other than in the former USSR. A detailed basis for applicability of these scenarios is presented in L.
Hydrometeoizdat (1991). This paper showed among other things, a good agreement of anomalies of
temperature field (both winter and summer) for reconstruction of three of the periods of global warming and
this lead the authors to proceed further for projecting possible climatic changes in future.
A third possibility is to use the available series of meteorological observational data and select
short periods of warm climatic waves and use them as analogues of future climate. For example, in one
recent study, weather records from the 1930s dust-bowel period were used in conjunction with various crop
growth, forest succession and hydrological models (Rosenberg and Grosson, 1991). The advantage of this
approach is the possibility of using data about solar radiation, air humidity and wind speed which is
unavailable in other approaches.
The methodological aspects of using the three approaches for projection of the impact of
climatic change on agriculture are discussed by Rosenberg (1992), and L. Hydrometeoizdat (1991).
The study of the consequences of global warming account for direct effects of increase in
greenhouse gases (C02 and tropospheric 03) and changes in climatic parameters. Consideration is also
taken of the increase in UV-radiation and anthropogenic soil degradation. The C0 2 concentration is known
to equal 353 ppm in 1990, being 25% higher in the pre- industrial era. It continued to grow at 1,8 ppm
(0,5%) per year (IPCC, 1990). The concentration of the tropospheric ozone in Europe has doubled in the
1970's, as compared to the time between 1930 and 1950. It continues to grow even today at 1 % per year
for the Northern hemisphere (IPCC, 1990). Anthropogenic soil degradation is progressing in some regions
of the world because of unbalanced removal of nutrients, water and wind erosion. Annual losses of humus
from the soil layer in Russian Federation is estimated at 0,3-0,7% per year.
2.2.2

Models for assessing the impact of climate variations and climate changes on
agriculture

The development and application of CLIMATE-YIELD models is summarized by Plaisier,

1981. Models for 32 agricultural crops were available in 20 countries, 35% of which belonged to the
statistical type, while others to the deterministic ones. As noted by Rosenberg (1992), regression equations
are instructive but not generally reliable for extrapolation beyond the range of the data used in their
formulation. Also they cannot be used to deal with effects of enrichment of C0 2. Models that simulate plant
growth, yield and water use offer the best alternative to the regression model. But simulatoring models have
their own limitations.
Few of these models adequately reflect the effect of meteorological factors on major physical
and biological processes under modelling. Specifically, adequate picture of the impact of air temperature on
photosynthesis, respiration, growth, phenology and mineral nutrition of crops needs to be described and
account should be taken of temperature role in determination of transpiration from crops and evaporation
from soil. In order to provide a response of crop productivity to change in precipitation, a model needs to
have a hydrological module accounting for retention of precipitation by vegetation, its uptake, redistribution
and evaporation from soil as well as water uptake by roots and transpiration controlled by stomatal
resistance which, in turn, depends on air humidity, solar radiation, C0 2 concentration and other factors. It is
difficult to refer to any model as ideal and which account for the above processes in a balanced way.
Significant progress has, however, been made in coming closer to such an ideal situation.

31

To describe the current status of modelling, three groups of models, two from the USA and
one from the Russian Federation, which are most commonly used for assessing consequences of climatic
changes, have been described below:
The first family of models are EPIC models (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator), which
were used in the well-known MINK project. EPIC is a physical-process model that simulates the interaction
of the soil-climate-atmosphere. Sub-models capable of simulating hydrology, climate,
erosion-sedimentation, nutrient cycling, plant growth, tillage, soil temperature, management and a simple
accounting of costs and returns are included. EPIC operates on a daily time step. Crop phenology in EPIC
is a function of the accumulation of growing degree-days.
The absorption of photosynthetically active radiation PAR is taken into account as a function
of the leaf area index LAI. The daily potential gain in biomass AB P is proportional to PAR and is also a
function of the day length. The gain in LAI is a function of LAI, temperature and crop stress factor REQ.
Potential growth of root biomass and the depth to which they go is also determined. The potential
water uptake is calculated as:
Ep = E0 LAI/3
where:
E0 = is potential transpiration;
Ep = is also calculated separately for each soil layer.
The uptake of nitrogen and phosphorus by crops and nitrogen fixation in soil is also modelled. The actual
gain in crop biomass AB = (REG) (Abp) where REG is a product of five stress-factors

32

(water, fertilizer, temperature, aeration and radiation) changing from 0 to 1. A separate submodel has been
developed for winter dormancy period. The model accounts for the effects of irrigation and erosion on yield
(Williams et a/., 1989). Modifications were made in EPIC to permit mechanistic simulation of photosynthetic
and evapotranspirational responses to increasing ambient C0 2 concentration and changing climate
conditions (Stock et a/., 1992a and 1992b). Testing of the model for many regions and crops in the USA
produced positive results.
The second group of models is CERES models. The CERES (Crop-Environment Resource
Synthesis) family of models used in the recent study by the Environmental Protection Agency of the USA
(Smith and Tirpak, 1989) is more deterministic and, hence, in principle, is more easily applicable to different
regions than is EPIC. However, EPIC is more flexible in modelling various farming systems than simulation
models (WWF - World Fund for Nature, 1992). In this study CERES-Maize, CERES-Wheat and SOYGRO
dynamic-growth crop-simulation models are used to project the effects of climate changes on the yields of
irrigated and rainfed winter wheat, maize (corn) and soybeans. The choice of these widely validated models
is based on several criteria (Adams et at., 1990). First, the models simulate crop response to major climate
variables of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation and include the effects of soil characteristics on
water availability for crop growth. They are also physiologically oriented, with functions that calculate the
rates of photosynthesis, translocation, respiration and other crop processes. Growing-degree days and
photoperiod effects are modelled for the 3 crops. Second, they are validated for a range of soil and climate
conditions. Increased C02 has been found to increase photosynthesis and decreased stomata! conductance
in most crop plants in experimental settings, resulting in reduced transpiration rate per unit leaf area and
overall increase in water-use efficiency.
In a CERES-Sorghum model (Rao et at., 1991), a daily step is described. The model includes
phenology, yield and its components, root growth, soil water balance and soil nitrogen balance. Particular
attention is given to the modelling of dynamics of stem formation and growth. The model has shown good
performance for different areas in Australia, India and USA in a wide range of temperatures, photoperiod,
radiation and water availability, A similar model has also been developed for rice.
The CERES models are used for calculations in the Climate Change and International
Agriculture Project Environmental Protection Agency of the USA.
The third family of models widely used for assessing impact of global warming on agriculture in
the Russian Federation is WEATHER-YIELD model developed in the Institute of Agriculture Meteorology in
Obninsk (WWF-World Fund for Nature, formerly World Wildlife Fund, 1992) (Sirotenko, 1981; Abashina and
Sirotenko, 1986; Sirotenko, 1991).
The WEATHER-YIELD model is composed of deterministic and empirical relationships. The
model is a closed system of differential equations (see Figure 2.1).
dmp
dt

= ap (1-RG) (F + Q) - Dp -qp-Pp

pel, ls, s, r, k, z

dW|
dt

= qj T - q, - TRj - 5, E

1,15

dNj

dt

= Hj + 6j. UN -h, +

j= 1,3 where'.

(1)

mp

aP

33
is a phytomass of leaves I, the leafy portion of the stalk l the stalk s, the root r, the
non-productive portion of the spike k, and the grain (z);

are growth functions (0p ^ 0; Zqp = 1);

RG
F

is a coefficient of respiration during growth;

is the total photosynthesis of the field;

Q
DP
PP
W
Wj
Qi i and qj -

is the overall decomposition of phytomass (Q = Iqp);

is respiration during maturity;
is the shedding of biomass;
is the water supply of the shedding of biomass;
is the water supply of the i-th 10-centimetre layer of soil;

are flows of water through the upper and lower boundaries of the i-th layer {ql=1
= RR the effective precipitation);
TR,
E

= are losses due to the transpiration;

-,

are logical variables (6, = 1 for i = 1, and 5, = 0 for i*1);

=
is the quantity of nitrogen in soil layers at 0-20 (j = 1), 20-50 ij = 2), and 50100 cm (j = 3) depth;

Nj

= is physical evaporation;

Hj
UN

is the fixation of readily hydrolyzed organic nitrogen; are

5)
h

is a dummy variable (5| = 1 when j* 1, and = 0 when j = 0}; is denitration;

are flows of soil nitrogen through the upper and lower boundaries of the j-th layer;
is absorption of nitrogen by the plants; is time.

applications of nitrogen fertilizers;

The first equation of the series (1) describes the balance of biomass in the
Aj
t
agricultural ecosystem {processes of photosynthesis, respiration, and reutilization of
metabolites). The second and third equations describe the balances of water and mineral nitrogen for each
of the soil layers identified.
The direct effect of C02 in this model is allowed for through the function of photosynthesis and
stomatal resistance.
This model was the basis for developing a geo-information system CLIMATE-SOIL- YIELD for
the territory of the former USSR aimed at solving a wide range of problems related to agriculture adaptation
due to the effects of global greenhouse and as well as for the assessment of the current agroclimatic
resources and short-term forecast of yield.
Analysis of status and development of simulation models, was published in 1986 (Whisler
eta!., 1986). Analysis of status of simulation models in the former USSR is presented in the monograph
(Poluektov, 1991).

34

Figure 2.1 - Relational diagram of the model algorithm

A conventional method for using simulation models for impact studies is shown in Figure 2.2
(the left loop of feedback is research, the right loop presents the processes of adaptation to new
conditions).
2.2.3

Development of methodology

The relative importance of direct and indirect effect of atmospheric C0 2 growth is still being
debated. Some specialists look at the beneficial effect of CO a increase in the atmosphere as a dominant
factor, others are rather sceptical about manifestation of this factor on farming fields. In this respect, it
would be interesting to note the conclusion made in the work by Sinha (1991), There appears to be
evidence to show that average national yields of crops have increased as a result of the 25% increase in
C02 concentration in the last 100 years. The future is expected to bring in concurrent multiple stresses
such as increased UV-B radiation, increased tropospheric ozone concentration together with high levels of
C02 and temperature and these stresses can overcome the beneficial physiological effect of atmospheric

35

enrichment with C02 for some crops. Kimball (1993) states Under non-limiting water and nutrient supply,
prior reviews suggest crops grow about 30% more on the average with a doubling of C0 2 concentration.
Reports indicate that water-limiting conditions increase the stimulation of growth by elevated C02 more often
than they decrease it, but a regression analysis did not reveal significant differences. In contrast, other
reports suggest nutrient-limited conditions reduce stimulation of growth by C0 2 enrichment more often than
they increase it. Regression analysis of these data suggests that on average, the C0 2 growth and yield
stimulation under nutrient stress were only 74% and 49%, respectively, of the stimulation with adequate
nutrients. However, many of the studies were pot or nutrient solution studies which may not represent field
conditions. The interaction between C02 and temperature appears to be strong and positive, although
deleterious effects on harvest index may occur for some species, and increased temperature can shorten
the life cycle of crops.
Extensive experimental data on the impact of increased C02 and temperatures on rice
production are presented by Baker and Allen (1993).

Soil, Crop and

Management
Inputs
Climate Change A
Scenarios J

CROP MODEL

Predicted Base
Yield, Irrigation, ET,
Season Length...
Calibrate/Validate

Model Using
Experimental Data

Predicted Change in
Yield, Irrigation, ET,
Season Length...
Farmer Adaptations

Economic
Consequences

Figure 2.2 -

Flow Diagram for the Crop Model

36
It seems important to consider the depletion of the ozone layer for the following reasons.
Greenhouse warming will reduce the frequency of cold episodes. Yield of crops will increase due to
photosynthesis stimulation by C02. Rice production in Northern Japan, for example, would enjoy the
benefits of the greenhouse warming. However, if the losses of ozone depletion were great, this argument for
the continued depletion of ozone layer might not be applicable (Okamoto, 1993). The ozone layer depletion
of 1,5% is expected to lead to reduction in rice production of 2-4%. Based on this calculation, it can be
shown that the increase due to the greenhouse warming (ozone layer depletion) is small compared to the
positive effects of temperature increase and atmospheric C0 2 enrichment. The effect, however, can be
different at higher latitudes.

Experimental studies on the indicated significant reduction in leaf area and dry weight for
cucumber plants when they were additionally exposed to UV radiation by a factor of 1,75 and 2,75 times
that for a clear summer day (Nouchi, 1993). Short-term exposure to UV-B radiation leads to suppression of
Arabidopsis growth not only immediately after the exposure but also on a long-term basis (Zhalilova et af.,
1993).
Impact of tropospheric ozone concentrations on the growth of agricultural crops has been the
subject of another study. A simple model was developed based on an existing growth model in order to
study the effects of ozone on the growth and yield of soybean crop (Kobayashi, 1990). The effect of ozone
is modelled as reduced photosynthate production and accelerated senescence (Shimizu et al., 1993).
Another aspect of the problem is the effect of climate change on soil and through soil on the
productivity of agroecosystems. A system analysis of the problem in the context of global desertification
process is presented by Schlesinger (1990). The number of studies pursued in this field is rather limited. A
simple model of humus accumulated in soil is described by Asai and Seino (1993). In this model, soil
organic matter accumulation was related to decomposition rate and annual plant production, both of which
were treated as functions of annual temperature. Results of calculations showed tendencies in soil organic
matter distribution along a temperature gradient, though the effects of soil factors were considered to be
highly significant. A more complicated non-linear model permitting calculation of soil humus dynamics and
identification of steady-state of soil conditions under new climatic conditions is proposed (Ryzhova, 1988).
The methods for developing scenarios of climate change are continued to be improved. The
stochastic weather models are now applied to create daily time series using monthly average values and
variances (Wilks, 1993). A weather simulator which generates components conjugated series of total solar
radiation, average air temperature, total precipitation, dates of the last (spring) and first (autumn) frosts,
dates of planting and initial water availability of soil has been developed. These data are used for calculating
potato yield using the POMOD dynamic model (Belchenko, 1990). Another stochastic weather simulator is
also used for a similar purpose (Sirotenko and Pavlova, 1988).
A quantity Y depending on meteorological conditions, can be exhaustively described for a
specific climate CL by the distribution law Pa (Y). The problem of assessing consequences due to change
can then be construed as comparison of distributions P CL'(Y) and PCL{Y) corresponding to the current (CL')
and projected climate (CL). Most authors restrict themselves to the analysis of distributions averaged over
many years. Situations, however, are possible when at relatively insignificant changes in average yield,
situations of changes in low-level yields and high-level yields by more than several fold may occur.
Examples of these so called risk shifts" can be found in the Table 2.1 (Zhukovskii et af., 1992).

-t

37

Table 2.1 - Expected changes in potato yield under different climate scenarios. (Belogorka, Leningrad
region)
f
Climate Change Scenarios
! Indicator
I
I

nN = P'YI

B
At = 1, AW
=-10

At = 1, AW = 10

| P'N

D!
i
1

C
At = -1, AW =
10

At = -1, ! AW = -10 j
. . . .. i

iI

; nm
| He
! n3

0,92

1,02

1,09

0,80

1,15

0,95

1,10

0,85 j

0,91

0,58

1,97

1,44 |

1,03

0,53

| H5 1 ____________

2,16

1,38 i
__________________
i

At = is change in temperature norm, C A W - is

change in precipitation norm, %
The table shows statistical relationship of time series of potato yields calculated using POMOD
model for four scenarios of climate change (A, B, C, D) and the current climate. nm is the relation of average
values; He is the relation of mean square deviations and n3, n5 are relations of low yields occurring under
the current conditions once every three years or once every five years, respectively. It can be easily seen,
for examples, that under scenario B, with temperature increase and simultaneous reduction in precipitation,
the projections of average yield increase only by 9%, and low yields occur once every 3-5 years only (twice
as infrequent).
2.3

IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

Since the publication of the first IPCC report in June 1990, the studies on the impact of climate
change on agriculture have continued (izrael, 1990). They have now been incorporated in a great number of
countries and for various agricultural crops, but so far, nothing has changed radically the previous
conclusions arrived at.
Results of some of the latest calculations of potential impact of climatic change on agriculture
is presented in the following sub-sections. It should be noted that these calculations, in most cases, are
based on the assumption of maintaining current technologies and management techniques. They do not
consider the changes which could occur if farmers and governments change over to new
technologies and management techniques in response to changes in climate as well as other components
of the environment.
2.3.1

America

North America, USA; Using IBSNAT models, assessments were made of the effect of increase
in temperature and C02 concentration in the atmosphere on growth of wheat, maize and soybeans (Jones et
a/.t 1991). Calculations were made with three GCM scenarios for 15 sites in the USA. At the increase of C02
concentration to 555 ppm, the intensity of dry matter production for soybeans, wheat and maize grew by
21,17 and 6%, respectively. Without the direct effect of increased C0 2 concentration, however, production of
all these crops is expected to fall. Given an increased C02 concentration, soybeans yield should increase at

38

a nominal increase in temperature, but decrease sharply at temperature increase of 5,1 C. In all the
scenarios, with or without C02 concentration, maize yield decreased. The impact of climate change on
wheat yield appeared to be relatively insignificant. The impact of global warming (GCM scenarios) on maize
production using CERES-Maize models has been published (Chou and Ritchie, 1991). Calculations were
presented for 15 sites of the continental USA. Analysis was performed of several adaptation strategies to
counter a possible yield reduction as a result of climatic change.
Calculations of crop productivity with CERES models of non-irrigated wheat and maize with
climatic change (using GCM scenarios, appear to be lower to those in the 1930s (dust storm period),
especially for maize (Rosenzweig and Hillel, 1995).
For assessment of potential changes in maize, sorghum and rice productivity, due to climate
change using two GCM scenarios (GISS, GFDL), the crop productivity model EPIC was used (Rosenthal
and McCarl, 1991). The greatest reduction in yield is projected in the west and south-west of USA. The most
sensitive to climate change appears to be maize.
Canada: Assessments were made for a combined effect of global climate changes, increase of
C02 concentration to 555 ppm and two adaptation strategies for wheat yield at 7 locations of Canada's
prairie. The CERES-Wheat model was used. The adaptation strategy provides for earlier planting time and
irrigation. The results differed significantly from site to site and not infrequently were opposite in sign.
Though climate warming tends to lead to yield reduction, an increase in C0 2 concentration may weaken this
tendency and even result in favourable changes.
According to earlier studies, yields of maize, soybeans, barley and meadow hay are expected
to decrease everywhere with the exception of the north Ontario. Winter wheat yield is also projected to
decrease (by about 4%), through to a lesser degree than spring wheat yield.
South America: Simulation modelling was done to assess future production of wheat, maize
and soybeans in Brazil using GISS, GFDL and UKMO scenarios in CERES and SOYGRO models. The C02
concentration was taken to increase from 330 to 555 ppm. Warming should lead to a shorter growing period
for wheat and maize and their lower yields. It is projected that soybeans production should be reduced to a
lesser degree as a result of increase in C02 concentration. The national stock of grain is projected to
decrease by 1 million tons for wheat, 4 million tons for maize and increase by 3,8 million tons for soybeans.
For major regions of Uruguay, three scenarios were considered (Walter, 1992). The
CERES-Wheat and CERES-Barley models were used. Changes of temperature and water regime with
constant solar radiation were included. It is seen that the result is a shorter growing period and yield
reduction, particularly in the absence of nitrogenous fertilizers. The average yield reduction is estimated at
0,45 t/ha per 1 C and 0,10 t/ha per 10% decrease in precipitation. Improved farming practices should result
in higher yields, but these will not make up for losses due to climatic change.
2.3.2

Europe

Northern Europe: According to recent studies, agriculture in Scandinavia and Iceland should
benefit from global warming more than any other region in the world. The studies confirm that, on a whole,
climate warming should bring about a considerable increase in potential productivity in these countries due
to increase in growing period length, total solar radiation and increase of C0 2 concentration {Carter, 1992).
North-Western Europe: Yield of plants (herbs and potato) should increase with the increase of
temperatures in those areas where total precipitation increases make up for increased water losses by
vapotranspiration. For example, under warming of 3-4C, herb yields in Netherlands might increase by
10% and potato yield in UK by 50-75%. Yields of deterministic crops such as wheat should decrease,
though in C3 plants this effect is partially compensated by direct effect of increase of C0 2 concentration.
According to Butterfield and Morison {1992), the reduction in growing period of winter wheat in the UK is
expected to have a negative effect on grain yield (under warming of 2 and 4C yield will fall to 1,6 and 2,8
t/ha). Calculations of wheat yield by BESTAND-WW model using the scenario of winter temperatures an
increase of 5,5C, and using the scenario of summer temperatures an increase of 2,5C and annual

39

precipitation reduction of 10% suggest a decrease in yield (Hackel and Welb, 1992). Chemiliewski and Lieth
(1992) concluded that consequences of global warming for Germany's agriculture should be negative,
unless measures of adaptation to new conditions are taken on time. An example of this is the drought of
May-June 1992 which inflicted serious damage to agriculture.
A crop growth simulation model based on SUCROS87 was constructed to study the effects of
temperature rise and increase of the atmospheric C02 concentration on spring wheat yields in the
Netherlands. Combination of temperature rise and higher C02 concentration resulted in very small yield
increases in years in which water was not limited to growth and large yield increases in dry years. Change
of variety or of sowing date could not reduce the negative effects of temperature rise on simulated yields
(Sanderine, 1993).
Slovenia is another mid-latitude country, where future climatic changes are expected to be
significant (Kajfez-Bogataj, 1992). A dynamic crop model AGROS was used to examine combined effects of
increased C02 and high temperatures on spring barley and maize yields. Simulations were carried out for
various combinations of increased temperature (by 1, 2, 3, 4C) and C0 2 concentrations (350, 450 and 700
ppm). The model predicted a shorter growing period due to warming for both crops. In spring barley the total
dry matter and grain yield increased due to increased C0 2 concentration, but if temperature rises exceed
2,7C, total dry matter and yield decreased. In maize, the total dry matter, grain yield and harvest index
generally increased. The last result is somewhat surprising, considering that maize is a C4 crop.
South Europe: In the Mediterranean region, the potential productivity of agriculture is projected
to fall significantly because of climate becoming more arid according to GCM scenarios (Izrael, 1990).
2.3.3

Africa

Climatic changes on the continent have been established to lead to desertification and larger
dry areas much faster than was anticipated earlier. Over the period 1931-1990, the humidity decreased by
63% over the territory. The precipitation amount in the Sahel fell by 30%. The African areas classified as
arid and excessively arid increased by 54 million hectares,
i.
e. the main climatic shift for the continent lies in transition from semi-arid to arid lands and from dry
conditions to excessively dry conditions (New Scientist, 1992a).
Global warming and climate change would significantly affect agriculture in West and Central
Africa. Significant aspects of possible effects would include effects of increased rainfall and rising
temperatures, effects of increased rainfall intensities and variability of rainfall changes in agroclimatic and
agroecological zones, and effects on agricultural systems. In general, climatic change would reduce
agricultural productivity and bring about poverty, hunger, famine and death to the local population {Ojo,
1993).
As was shown in Salinger, ef at., (1980) for the Magreb countries, an estimated increase of the
annual temperature of 1,5C, vapotranspiration will increase by more than 10% and this (given total
precipitation remains unchanged) is expected to cause a reduction in the river flow by more than 10%.
Areas under irrigation will probably be reduced leading to a change from field cropping to cattle breeding.
2.3.4

Asia

China: The estimation is done using GCM scenarios (GFDL, GISS, NCAR, DSU and UKMO)
and statistical relationships between yields and temperature and precipitation (Wang and Wang, 1991). It is
projected that under the current planting systems and agrotechniques, the impact of climate change on
wheat production is more significant than that on rice; the climatic conditions of agricultural production in the
north China will become more favourable while those in the south of the middle and lower reaches of
Changjiang River remain the same; but those in the southern part of northern China and the basin between
Changjian River and Haihe River are rather unstable. In general, it is difficult to reach the conclusion that
advantages or disadvantages dominate in such climate changes because of uncertainties.
The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences has published data bout projected climatic

40

changes in the country by the year 2050, and an international group of experts led by A. Markham (New
Scientist, 1992b) generalized and analyzed these data. The studies project events which are likely to occur
with an increase in average global temperature of 2,5C. The Chinese climate should become warmer and
drier. Steppes will turn into deserts, hundreds of thousands of hectares of fertile land on plains in the
eastern part of the country will be inundated. These climatic changes will inevitably bring about radical
reductions (likely, 50%) in yields of rice, wheat, soybean and sorghum.
Recent studies (Aggarwal and Sinha, 1993) can be summarized as follows:
The climatic warming would be quite favourable for Chinese agricultural production, with
increasing yield due to a diversification of cropping systems. However, the major crop cultivated in the
multiple cropping systems is paddy rice and its normal growth requires a great volume of water.
Unfortunately, by 2050 the net balance of precipitation and vapotranspiration would be negative and less
water would be available than today. By 2050, the climate would be less suitable for the cultivation of rice;
although the area suitable for rice cultivation would increase, average yield would be likely to decrease due
to reduced water availability.
Wheat will be the staple crop of a double cropping system and even today there are regions
where the water demand cannot be met. This crop would also be severely affected by slight
changes in the water balance. To cope with the decreasing water availability, more irrigation would be
required. The necessary water for irrigation could be taken from the large river systems, but their water flow
would also be strongly influenced by climate change.
In some regions, however, there will be increases in yield. At the cold margins of cereal
production where conditions tend to be sub-optimal because low temperatures often prevent crop
maturation and/or early frost occurrence results in harvest failure, a warmer climate by 2050 may well
increase yield significantly. This is most likely to occur in northeast China, currently one of the coldest
agricultural areas in China.

41
India: Effect of carbon dioxide and temperature increase on growth, development, water use
and grain yield of wheat was simulated for several locations of India using a dynamic growth simulation
model, WTGROWS {Aggarwei and Sinha, 1993). The effect of climate change on wheat production appear
to depend on the magnitude of temperature change. A one degree increase in temperature throughout the
crop season will have no effect or slightly increase productivity in irrigated as well as rainfed environments,
particularly in northern Indian wheat belt. A two degree increase in temperature will reduce potential yields
but will have small effect on irrigated yields in northern India. ET will be significantly reduced in changed
climate. Relatively, the effect of climate change will be more pronounced in central India where yield
potential is already low. The crop responses to climate change are related to the effect of temperature on
crop duration.

The dynamic-growth simulation model MACROS predicted the harvest indices to fall
(Monandass et ai, 1993). The model was used to develop strategies for mitigating the combined effects of
increased temperature and C02, and defined rice types suited to changing climate.
South-East Asia: The international group of experts led by M. Parry (UK) published results of
studies on projected consequences of global warming and elevation of world sea level for this region (Parry
et a!., 1992). Under the latest projection, by 2090 the average temperature is to rise by 3C in Indonesia,
3-4C in Malaysia and 3-6C in Thailand. The precipitation amount will remain the same for the region with
the exception of southern Indonesia in which the total precipitation is likely to be doubled where irrigation
might be extended. But soil erosion (to 40%) will be enhanced. Washing out nutrients from soil will lead to
2-8% decrease in yield. In some areas, maize yields are expected to fall by 65%. In Malaysia, as the
temperature grows, the ripening time for rice will be reduced leading to yield losses from 12 to 22%. The
projection for Thailand is less certain, some of its details being conflicting. Nevertheless, there is also a
tendency for decrease in yield, soil erosion enhancement and increase in irrigation requirements.
Also, a thorough study into the effect of global warming on Philippines farming was completed
(Buendia etaf., 1993). To this end, GCM scenarios (GFDL, UKMO) and CERES-Rice model were used.
Due to climate change alone in the Philippines, an estimated rice yield loss of 2,24 million tons per year will
occur. However, under a scenario of climate change with physiological C0 2 effects, only an annual increase
of 0,1 million tons is expected. This additional yield can only accommodate to feed an additional 1,1 million
inhabitants per year.
Studies were undertaken on the impact of climate changes (four GCMs) on rice production in
Thailand (Bachelet eta!., 1992). Global warming should, in principle, allow a northward expansion of rice
growing areas and a lengthening of growing season now constrained by low temperatures. The expected
increase in water - use efficiency due to enhanced C02 might decrease the vulnerability to water deficits of
dryland rice areas and could make it possible to slightly expand them.
2.3.5

Russian Federation

A most complete (for different economic regions) estimate of the potential productivity for
Russian Federation under global warming is presented (Sirotenko and Abashina, 1994). Temperature and
precipitation for GFDL and CCC were scaled with 0,45 and 0,51 coefficients, respectively, to obtain
projections for 2030 as per IPCC recommendations. Averaged projected changes in temperature and
precipitation for the central part of the Russian plain are indicated in Table 2.2 below: 2
Table 2.2 - Change in temperature and precipitation under EMI, CCC and GFDL scenarios for central
areas of Russian Federation (50-60N, 30-60E)
Season
Scenario

AT

in C with respect to norm under

scenarios

AR

in % with respect to norm under

scenarios

EMI

CCC

GFDL

EMI

CCC

GFCL

January

+ 9.8

+ 4.3

+ 2.1

+ 16

+ 15

+ 10

July

+ 0.2

+ 1.8

+ 2.2

+ 16

+5

GFDL
CCC
EMI

42
Dynamics Laboratory

USA, Princeton, Geophysical

Canada, Climate Center
Eemian Interglacial

Geoinformation system was used for calculations. Table 2.3 shows data involving two
indicators: potential crop yield CY {deterministic crops), PP is potential productivity of indeterministic grass
growing throughout the whole year with temperatures above 5C.
Projections of GCM scenarios under climate warming suggest a decrease in crop yield in
Russian Federation by 14-15% and a reduction in feed base of animal husbandry {grass yield) by 4%.
Response of agriculture, however, is expected to be different for different regions of the country. Warming
will have a favourable impact on agriculture of northern areas of the European part and Siberia and will
cause a northward shift of farming borders. The latter has not been reflected in the data of Table 2.3. At the
same time, a more arid climate can have a disastrous effect on grain production in the steppes of
Povolzhye, Northern Caucasus and south-Western Siberia, where grain production can fall by 20-25%.
Results in Table 2.3 are provisional, since they do not allow for changes in such important
nonclimatic factors as atmospheric enrichment with other greenhouse gases - ozone in the first place. The
increasing anthropogenic degradation of soil in Russian Federation is not taken into account either.
The following scenarios for changes in these factors by 2030 have been adopted.
1.

C02 growth of 20%

- C02 x 1.2

2.

Growth of background contamination with one by 30%

- 03 x 1.3

3.

Decrease in organic matter (humus) content in soil by 20%

- HUM x 0.8.

Results under these scenarios averaged over all regions, territories and republics of Russian
Federation (181 territorial units) are summarized in Table 2.4.
It is to be noted that the three non climatic impacts are approximately of the same magnitude.
Given the current climate, changes in C0a, 03 and humus could, if taken separately, induce crop yield
changes of +15, -9 and -13%, respectively. Under the most arid" scenario, GFDL, yield changes are
expected to be -2, -24 and -27% of the current level, i.e. with a more arid climate the positive effect of C02 is
projected to be less significant, but the destructive role of ozone contamination and reduction in soil fertility
will grow. The data of Table 2.3 confirm the conclusion of many authors that the direct effect of C0 2
enrichment of the atmosphere is capable of compensating the impact of climatic change under the worst
scenario.

43
The third and the fourth lines of Table 2.4 show projections when deterioration of the
environment continues whereas the growth of C02 is stopped. These scenarios are the most undesirable of
all for agriculture in Russian Federation. Though, the main projection C0 2 x 1.2, 03x 1.3 and HUM x 0.8
projections show a decrease in crop production, it is a pessimistic one.

2.3.6

Global assessments

The results of global assessments of impact of greenhouse gases on agriculture are

generalized and presented in the IPCC report published in 1990 and 1992.
A climate-crop model (crop-suitability method) by the Food and Agriculture Organization
tested the change in potential yield and distribution of the crops over the globe under one GCM scenario
(Cramer and Solomon, 1993). High latitude regions uniformly benefited from a climatic change with
projected longer growing periods and increased productivity. Other regions either did not benefit
significantly or lost productivity to some extent. Agricultural potential declines were due to differences in
moisture availability. This study considered only climate effects and did not consider possible effects of
increased C02 on photosynthesis and water use efficiency.
Table 2.3 - Prediction of potential productivity (PP) of sown grass and crop yield (CY) for 2030 under EMI,
CCC, GFDL (Deviations from the current values in %)
Geographic region of
Russian Federation
Baseline
PP and CY, %
X3
Scenario
PP

EMI

CY

CCC

GFDL

PP

CY

PP

CY

PP

CY

EUROPEAN PART
1 North, Northwest
2 Central
3 Volgo Vyatsky
4 Central black soil areas
5 Northern Volga areas
6 Southern Volga areas
7 North Caucasus
ASIAN PART

8 Urals
9 West Siberia, S'W
10 West Siberia, s-e
11 Krasnoyarsky, s
12 Far East
RUSSIAN FEDERA TON

5.1
5.5
5.0
6.6
5.4
3.6
7.0

1.2
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.1
0,8
1.7

12
16
16
18
20
46
26

0
0
0
3
5
17
43

9
6
3
2
-2
-18
-26

2
-3
-9
-9
-13
-20
-25

8
4
0
1
-5
-15
-23

-3
-10
-12
-9
-18
-20
-19

5.6
6.0
6.0
5.4
5.4

1.3
1.4
1.2
1.3
TO

20
21
19
14
18

9
9
3
-4
-1

-1
1
-1
5
-3

-13
-13
-18
-17
-14

-2
2
1
4
-3

-12
-12
-18
-20
-16

5.6

1.3

22

-4

-14

-4

-15

44
Table 2.4 - Projections of Productivity in agriculture for 2030 under EMI, CCC, GFDL and increased C0 2
and ozone concentrations and reduction of humus content from the current values
Change in potential productivity PP and crop yield CY
Scenario of
non-climate impacts

Climate scenarios
NORM

EMI

CCC

GFDL

PP

CY

PP

CY

PP

CY

PP

CY

CO, x 1.0 0, x
1.0 HUM x
1.0

0'

22

-14

-4

-15

-4

C02 x 1.2 0, x
1.0 HUM x
1.0

15

15

26

35

-1

-2

13

CO, x 1.0 0, x
1.3 HUM x
1.0

-9

-7

14

-23

-12

-24

-12

CO, x 1.0 0, x
1.0 HUM x
0.8

-13

-10

-6

10

-26

-13

-27

-14

CO, x 1.2 0, x
1.3 HUM x
0.8

-4

16

-24

-9

-25

10

* current (baseline) values

On of the latest attempts to generalize the scattered data to expected global climate change
on agriculture was undertaken by S. Kane et a!., (1992). The principal results of this study are presented in
Tables 2.5, 2.6 and 2.7.
Table 2.5 - Projected impact of climate change on crop yields in the United States by crop-climate model
Climate

GISS
GFDL

Percent changes
Corn
(dry)

Corn
(irrigated)

Soybeans
(dry)

Winter wheat
(dry)

-23.7
-54.7

-24.2
-28.5

-34.6
-59.7

-16.0
-30.9

45

Table 2.6 - Climate change and impact on crop yields.

Country/
region

Canada
Saskatchewan
Iceland
Finland
Helsinki
Oulu
USSR
Leningrad
Cherdyn
Saratov
Japan
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Australia

Climate
change
(C,%preclp)

+ 3.4C
+ 3.90X

+ 18%
+ 15%

+ 4.1X
+ 5.OX

+ 73%
+ 109
%

+ 4.2X
+ 2.7X
+ 3.3X

+ 52%
+ 50%
+ 22%

+ 3.5X
+ 2.9X

+ 5%
+ 12%
+ 50%

+ rc

Crop yields
Hay

Pasture

Rye

Barley
(%change)

Oats

S. wheat

-18%

+ 64%

+ 48%

+ 18%
+ 13%

+ 18%
+ 13%

+ 10%
+ 20%

-3%
+ 13%

-13%

+ (10-20)%

Source: Parry eta!., (1988).

Table 2.7 * Projected impact of climate change on wheat and spelt0 yields in EC countries using
empirical/statistical modelb
Country

BMO mode1
IGISS model
(percentages of 1975-79 average yields)

Denmark
Netherlands

+ 18.7
+ 1.2

+ 1.1
+ 0.3

Luxembourg
Belgium
France

+ 7.8
-9.5
-9.6

+ 6.1
- 6.8
- 12.3

Germany

-1.1
-0.8

Italy

Rice

- 8.6
- 1.2

Spelt is a cereal intermediate between what and rye. b HANUS country model
developed by the Economic Community. c BMO is a GCM developed at the
British Meteorological Office.
Even though each producing area was examined by a different team of experts using
different models and methods of analysis, the findings of these studies generally support the conclusion
that middle latitude yields will decrease and northern latitude yields will increase with a doubling of C02
levels.
World-wide crop yield responses to climate change have been simulated with dynamic crop
growth models, with the yield changes for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean as inputs to a world food trade
model (Rozenzweig and Parry, 1994). Outputs from the simulations have provided information on food
production and food prices, and on the number of people at risk from hunger.
Table 2.8, shows the overall estimated effect under a number of scenarios. In the simulations,
grain yields were positive and mid- and high latitudes, and negative at low latitudes for the two climate
scenarios with increase of temperature of about 4C mean global warming. Regional yield changes ranged
from +30 to -30%. The scenario with the largest temperature increase (~5C) caused average national
crop yields to decline almost everywhere.

+ 5%

+
2%
-

46

Table 2.8 - Change in Cereals Production under 3 different GCM Equilibrium scenarios (percent from base
estimated for 20601
Model Scenarios
GISS GFDL UKMO

Region
World total
Climate effects, no physiological effect of C02
Plus physiological effect of C02
Plus adaptation Level 1
Plus adaptation Level 2

-10.9
-1.2
0.0
1.1

-12.1
-2.8
-1.6
-0.1

-19.6
-7.6
-5.2
-2.4

Developed countries
Climate effects, no physiological effect of CO2
Plus physiological effect of CO2
Plus adaptation Level 1
Plus adaptation Level 2

-3.9
11.3
14.2

-23.9
-3.6
3.8

11.0

-10.1
5.2
7.9
3.0

Climate effects, no physiological effect of CO2

Plus physiological effect of CO2

-16.2
-11.0

-13.7
-9.2

-16.3
-10.9

Plus adaptation Level 1

Plus adaptation Level 2

-11.2
6.6

9.2
-5.6

-12.5
-5.8

1.8

Developing countries

Source: Rozenweig and Parry (1994).

Two levels of adaptation of grain yields have been tested. Minor farm-level adaptation (Level
1) compensated incompletely for the yield effects of climate change, particularly in the developing
countries. Major adaptations (Level 2} compensated almost fully for the negative climate change impacts
in two of the scenarios; however, with a high level of global warming, major adaptations did not overcome
the negative effects of climate change on crop yields in most countries (Parry, 1994). The following
preliminary conclusions may be drawn
Critical Magnitudes of Temperature Change - Assuming the full beneficial direct effect of C02,
crop yields increased on a global basis with mean global surface temperature change up to 2C, but they
decreased between 2 and 4C, when adverse climatic effects offset beneficial direct effects. In semi-arid
and sub-tropical regions, a 2C increase also caused decreased yields in some regions.
Tolerance of the World Food System - The world food system may be able to tolerate a
global mean temperature increase of up to 4C, without showing major global shortfalls (assuming
substantial adaptive technology is available). Under Level 2 adaptations, global shortfalls are in the range
of 2,5% (under Level 1 adaptations, 5%). However, under a climate change exceeding 5C, shortfalls may
exceed 10%.
Vulnerable Regions - Most importantly, region-to-region differences in agricultural potential
are great. Developing countries are likely to experience decreases in yield exceeding 10% under Level 1
adaptation and 5% under Level 2 adaptation, in contrast to increases projected for developed countries.
Sensitivities within the System - Global cereal prices and the associated regional risk of
hunger are especially sensitive to altered agricultural output. All the scenarios of climate change
considered are associated with increases in the number of people at risk from hunger.

47

Adaptation - Without adaptation, almost any climate change will increase risk of hunger. With
extensive adaptation, quite large magnitudes and rates of climate change can be tolerated. Everything
depends on the willingness to pay the price of adaptations.
2.4

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON GRASSLAND PRODUCTIVITY,

LIVESTOCK AND SOIL FERTILITY

2.4.1

Grassland/livestock - impact and adaptation assessments

Sustaining grasslands is critical for maintaining a wide diversity of outputs, such as forage for
both wild and domestic herbivores, seed sources for agricultural reclamation or landscaping purposes,
water quality and quantity, open space, threatened and endangered plants and animals, recreational use,
plant and animal diversity, human community stability, and scenic quality. This section seeks to give a brief
information about models able to assess the effect of climate change and variability on grassland/livestock
production systems.
Several grassland ecosystem models have been written since the creation of the
International Biological Programme biome ELM model (Innis, 1978), Detailed reviews of these models can
be found in Hanson et a/., (1985) and Agren et a!., (1991). Currently, in the USA three simulation models
are available to provide the level of detail required for considering the effects of climate change on
grassland ecosystems. The GEM (Hunt et a/., 1991) and SPUR2 (Hanson et a/., 1992) models are
short-time step models (1 day or less), while the CENTURY model (Patron et a/., 1987) is a long-time step
model (1 to 12 months).
The SPUR2 model - a newer and enhanced version of SPUR (Wight and Skiles, 1987) - is a
general grassland ecosystem model that simulates the cycling of carbon and nitrogen through several
compartments, including standing green, standing dead, live roots, dead roots, seeds, litter, and soil
organic matter. Competition between plant species and the impact of grazing on vegetation are also
simulated. SPUR2 has been modified to simulate the direct effects of C0 2 on plant production. The model
is driven by daily inputs of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation, and daily
wind run. These variables are derived either from existing weather records or from use of a stochastic
weather model.
The Colorado Beef Cattle Production Model (CBCPM) has been incorporated into SPUR2.
The CBCPM is a second-generation beef-cattle production model that was a modification of the Texas
A&M University (TAMU) Beef Simulation Model (Sanders and Cartwright, 1979). The CBCPM is a
herd-wide, life cycle simulation model and operates at the level of the individual animal. The biological
routines of CBCPM simulate animal growth, fertility, pregnancy, calving, death, and demand for nutrients.
This most advanced available system of dynamic models allows to estimate the climate
change impact on grassland and livestock productivity according to GCM scenarios.
Simulation sites were selected for the study on the basis of the region's economic
dependence on rangeland livestock production. Five thirty-year simulations were conducted on each site
using the Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands model and Colorado Beef Cattle
Production Model. Climate change files were obtained by combining historic weather data from each site
with predicted output from three GCM's. Results from nominal runs were compared with the three climate
change scenarios and a doubled C0 2 run. The magnitude and direction of ecosystem response to climate
change varied among the GCM's and by geographic region.Simulations demonstrated that changes in
temperature and precipitation patterns caused an increase in above-ground primary production for most
sites. Increased decomposition rates were recorded for northern regions. Similarly, animal production in
northern regions increased, implying an increase in economic survivability. However, because 4

48
decreases in a animal production indicators were recorded for the southern regions, economic
survivability in southern regions is less certain.

Two other grassland ecosystem models have been used previously to examine the potential
effects of climatic change on grassland production. The CENTURY model was developed to simulate
monthly biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulphur in both natural (Patron et
ai., 1987). Driving variables and major parameters for the model include surface-soil physical properties,
monthly precipitation and temperature, plant nitrogen and lignin contents, and land use.
The objectives of the GEM model are to predict seasonal and year-to-year biomass
dynamics of primary producers, microbes, and soil fauna and nitrogen availability in grasslands, and the
effects of C02 level and climate change on these dynamics (Hunt et a/., 1991). Information needed to run
this model includes daily precipitation; weekly mean, maximum, and minimum air temperatures, wind
speed, relative humidity and monthly soil temperatures. The model's structure allows for investigation of
the effects of climate change and elevated C02 on feedbacks through the trophic structure of the grassland
ecosystem. GEM has been used to predict ecosystem level effects of climate change in a short grass
steppe (Hunt et a!., 1991).
Other types of models available include decision support systems such as the Australian
models (McKeon and Howeden, 1991). These models have been used in Australia to examine the impact
of climate change on pastoral production of beef cattle.
In the former USSR a similar approach has also been developed. A simulation model of
biomass dynamics for principal plant communities in Turkmen desert grasslands is presented by Kirsta
(1984). The method for controlling grassland ecosystems in the arid zone based on a simulation model is
suggested by Karasev.
A complex dynamic-statistical model weather-soil-grassland vegetation-exempt livestock,
which is based on standard agrometeorological data and accounts for the principal aspects of
grassland/livestock interrelations under different weather conditions (energy and mass-exchange of plants
with the environment, vegetation loss as a result of pasturing, biomass increase of grass-fat animals, etc.)
is developed by Danielov et a/.,{ 1994). The model is multicomponent, universal enough and can be used
when estimating possible impacts of climate change on pastured livestock is semi-arid regions of Russian
Federation.
According to Shiyomi (1988), the following models of grassland ecosystems are developed
in Japan: a model for calculating energy balance in grasslands, a model for calculating nitrogen balance in
grasslands, a simplified model for forecasting grassland productivity, a model for forecasting grassland
variations in species based on meteorological data and a model for forage accumulation in grassland.
There are several advantages for using this type of approach. Biophysiological simulation
models are designed to mechanistically simulate ecological and physiological processes. Therefore, they
are useful for integrating the non-linear effects of climate change. Because these models are process
driven, they can be applied to many different environments. The models can also be used to test the
sensitivity and stability of the system to a range of changes in climatic conditions.
The major disadvantages for using a biophysical simulation approach are that complete data
sets for parameterizing the model rarely exist. Also, the models used are points models, which require
making simplifying assumptions when results are aggregated to the regional level. The most limiting
assumptions are that management practices will remain constant over the simulated period and that the
region of aggregation is homogenous. In

49

reality, management strategies, microclimate, vegetation structure, and soil types may be quite
heterogeneous.
Because of the above limitations, an empirical method is valid for solving stated problems. An
example of this approach successfully used in practice, is provided by Klinedist et a/., (1993) where
calculations have been performed on the basis of a simple empiric dependence between reduction rate in
milk production and temperature-humidity index (THI).
Three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) - GISS, GFDL, and UKMO - were used to represent
possible scenarios of future climate. Milk production rate declines were greatest under the UKMO model
scenario, and the least under the GISS model scenario. The results also indicate that reduction in milk
production would be considerably greater in the United Sates than in Europe, and that such predicted
reduction for the GCM scenarios would be generally higher than either "1 year in 10" probability-based
reductions or reductions based on the abnormally hot summer of 1980. Several areas predicted to have
maximum or high milk production reductions correspond to areas of high daily cattle concentration in the
United States. This indicates the potential for a notable impact due to global warming on summer season
productivity for the overall United States dairy industry. The greatest reductions in the United States are
predicted to occur in the Southeast and the Southwest.
2.4.2

Soil fertility - impact and adaptation assessments

Widely known is Dokuchaev's aphorism soil is a mirror of climate. Interrelations between

climate and natural soil fertility are complex and multiform. Figure 2.3, borrowed from Sohlesinger (1990),
gives some idea of this concept
Until recently, proper consideration was not being given to the effects of possible climate
change on soil fertility which in the first place is characterized by organic (humus) content. In this context,
a simple non-linear model of soil organic dynamics is presented:
G = hRR + hAA - mGG - B
R

= 0-y ~ - V* -

Here (J -

dt

R = ,
dt

t is time,

where:
R
A
mG,mR
B
K
n
G
q

= is the plant residue

= is the value of annual soil carbon intake with organic fertility = are the coefficients of humus
and plant mineral residue respectively = is the annual humus loss as a result of erosion
= is the parameter, characterizing a fraction of carbon lost through the crop = is the potential
agroecosystem productivity = is the humus carbon reserve in soil = is a constant
To analyze relationships between climate and organics contents in the soil,
some climatic parameters were identified influencing the latest of the process mentioned

below:
1)

2)

intensity of biomass production II1 soil organics mineralization mG,mR

3)
4)

50
soil organics contents (humus) hR, hg
intensity of organics loss B as a result of water erosion.

The method to assess the impact of climate change on soil fertility can be reduced to the
following. Using the ratio of the stationary (i.e. corresponding to G = R = 0) humus content in soil under
present (G0) conditions and expected (GnBW) climatic conditions (Gnow/G0) the complex characteristic of
the impact due to climate change on natural soil productivity could be determined. The studies showed
that the effect of expected climate change on soil fertility in the Russian Federation is of a complex and
ambiguous character.
The paper by Arai and Seino, (1993) devoted to the problem of the impact of climate on
humus content in soils of Japan, used an approach similar to the one considered above. A dependence
between humus content in soil and annual mean temperature which is nonlinear is observed at about
8-10C.
2.5

ADAPTATION OF FARMING SYSTEMS AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION TO

POSSIBLE CLIMATIC CHANGES

The results presented above assumed that technology and management in agriculture do not
alter significantly in response to climatic change. It is certain, however, that agriculture will adjust to
changes in climate and other environmental components and, although these adjustments will be
constrained by economic and social factors, it is likely that they will have an important bearing on future
impacts.
A comprehensive analysis of this issue up to 1990 is presented by several authors (Izrael,
1990, and Parry, 1990). This section reviews the result of the work carried out in the field since 1990.
Of these studies, the most valuable probably are the publications on the MINK project
(Rosenberg 1992), (Mink, 1992), (Easterling etal., 1992a), (McKenney eta/., 1992) and (Easterling et a/.,
1992b). The project was initiated in 1989 with the aim to develop a methodology for assessing the
expected impact of C02 growth and climate change on the agriculture of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas (MINK). The model used in the project was EPIC. It has been shown (McKenney et a/., 1992) that
advanced technology in agriculture can have an effect on yield response to climatic change induced by
greenhouse warming. These effects were simulated by manipulating the parameters of the EPIC model to
reflect the expected future technologies. Future technologies are projected to lead to an increase in
technology by 75%, but have little influence on yield sensitivity to climate change. The increase in C0 2
concentration has been demonstrated to cause higher yield of all crops, other than maize. The work by
Easterling et a/., (1992b) examines efficiency of inexpensive measures available to farmers to adjust to
possible climate change in MINK areas. Consideration is given to changes in land use, crop allocation and
techniques of harvest and fertilizer application. These measures, by projections, are capable of reducing
yield losses for all crops with the exception of irrigated wheat. The conclusion is that if these measures are
implemented, yield losses will be considerably less for most crops.
An extensive analysis of agricultural adaptation to climate change is given in. In regions
where mid- and late summer temperatures and/or water stress become severe enough to interfere with
the plant's reproductive cycle short duration varieties may be introduced. A shift from spring-sown to
fall-sown small grains may be anticipated in higher latitude regions. Less severe winters will ease the
winter-kill limitation on fall-sown wheat while increasingly severe summers will injure the later-maturing
spring wheat. Similarly, the development -or importation of more drought and heat resistant strains of
major crop species can be expected to occur in response to warming and/or desiccation. Greater
emphasis will likely be placed on

51
moisture conserving tillage methods in dryland agriculture. Various forms of minimum-tillage, conservation
tillage, stubble mulching and fallowing are already gaining in popularity in the U.S. midwest (Rosenberg,
1992). In the MINK study, simple improvements in tillage improved water conservation and helped to reduce
loss of simulated yields in summer row crops. A wide array of intercropping techniques-multi-cropping
techniques, relay cropping, and others, provide greater overall production per unit of land and can be
conducive to improved water use efficiency because of the microclimatic conditions they create.

Figure 2.3 - Diagram relating relations between climate changes , soil and desertification process.
Source: Schlesinger etaf.,1990).
A significant input to the solution was made by the studies from China is described in WWW
(1992). It was shown that it was more important to account for redistribution of areas under cropping
systems across the country. Table 2.9 shows major cropping systems used in China and active accumulated
temperature (ATT) governing the northern and southern borders of growing areas. Maps of distribution of
cropping systems were generated for the current climate and the 2050 expected climate according to the
composite GCM scenario adopted in China. The summarized data are given in Table 2.10. It can be
concluded from this Table that the percentage of areas under systems of a single crop will be reduced by
2050 almost by a factor of 2, whereas the percentage of areas under triple cropping systems will grow by a
factor of 2.5.

52

Table 2.9 - The ranges of Active Accumulated Temperature above 0C that define the different Chinese
cropping system.
Symbol

Northern boundary AAT Southern boundary AAT

above 0C
above 0C

Cropping patterns

Single cropping area

spring wheat, corn, sorghum, soybean

II

III

nid

4000

Double cropping area

a. wheat-corn
b. wheat-cotton, wheat-rice
c. rape-rice, rice-corn, rice-rice

4000
4000
4800
4400

5800
4800
5500
5800

Triple cropping area

a. wheat-rice-corn
b. rice-rice-wheat, rice-rice-rape
rice-rice-green manure crop
c. rice-rice-sugarcane
rice-rice-subtropical fruit
rice-rice-winter vegetable

5800
5800
6100
7000

8000
6100
7000

Hot triple cropping rice-rice-rice,

rice-rice-tropical crop

8000

8000
-

Table 2.10 - Percentage area of China falling under different cropping systems predicted by the adopted
model for: (i) current (1951-80) climate; and (ii) for the year 2050. (The best estimate is from using the
composite GCM scenario; the "low and "high estimates are when the seven individual GCM scenarios
are used).

Cropping system
I Single cropping
II Double cropping
Ilf Triple cropping
Hid Triple cropping

Current
climate

2050
best

2050
low

2050
high

62
24

39
25
29
7

31
21
19
3

56
29
29

12
1

11

An indicator of productivity for the territory of the Russian Federation was Agroclimatic
Potential (ACP) of the integrated dry above-ground biomass produced by the perennial vegetation of the
ecosystem over that part of the year with a daily mean air temperature above 5C. The crop vegetation of
an agricultural ecosystem begins growth in spring, from the date of a shift to air temperatures above 5C
(taken as the date of revegetation) until the standard state is reached, i.e. until a leaf index of 5 is reached,
after which the crop is cut (90% of the biomass is removed). The situation is continued until a new standard
state is reached. The cycle is repeated until the temperature passes below 5C in the autumn. Using the
dynamic-growth crop-simulation model described above, yields were estimated (Sirotenko et a!., 1992).
Manipulation of the parameters of the simulation model makes it possible to calculate, ACP under actual
water regime and mineral nutrition. ACP under optimum water regime (at specified soil moisture not limiting
stomatal resistance) and optimum mineral nutrition (at specified level of mineral nitrogen not limiting growth
processes). These values are denoted as ACPW and ACPN, respectively. The differences AN = ACPW - ACP
and AN ACPN - ACP are increments of yield due to optimization of water regime and mineral nutrition
regime. These increments control the efficiency of water and chemical amelioration of soil at specified
climatic conditions. Change in the efficiency of soil amelioration as a result of change in climatic conditions
is assessed using the following coefficients:

Kw =

kw

new

100%

-A

N
k

100%

53

where:

A new

* new

W and

are yield increments due to optimization of water regime and mineral

nutrition under new climatic conditions, and AN the current climatic conditions.

Values of Kw and KN averaged over regions of the Russian Federation for the three scenarios of
climate change (GCM - CCC, GFDL and EMI - reconstruction of Eemian interglacial conditions) are presented in
Table 2.11. Scenarios CCC and GFDL include different warming options: CCC and GFDL - arid, and EMI - humid.
Linder arid warming , the efficiency of water amelioration (water saving technologies included) will increase
everywhere considerably (on an average 73 and 92% in the Russian Federation). The efficiency of chemical
amelioration of soil will increase on an average by 6 to 8% only. Under humid warming, the efficiency of water
amelioration will increase by about 18% for the Russian Federation, whereas efficiency of chemical amelioration
(including mineral fertilizer) will grow by 40% as compared to the current climate.
Table 2.11 - Estimation of changes in effectiveness of large-scale amelioration projects in economic
regions of the Russian Federation in 2030 (deviations from amelioration effectiveness under current
climate conditions).
Geographic region of the
Russian Federation

Change in effectiveness (%)

Hydrotechnical
amelioration, Kw

Chemical amelioration, KN
SCENARIOS

CCC

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10
.
11
.12
.

North, n-w
Central
Volgo Vyatsky
Central black soil areas
Northern Volga areas

Southern Volga areas

North Caucasus
Urals

West Siberia, s-w

West Siberia, s-e
Krasnoyarsky, s
Far East

Russian Federation

GFDL

77
101
138
38
48
21
45
81
217
159
129
225

80
64
129
27

92

73

44

17
34
59
169
131
119
162

EMf

CCC

GFDL

17
0
60
-10
14
-8
-34
14
107
77
14

17
12
16
0
2
-12
33
-7
17
16
20
7

16
8
13
-4
1
-8
35
-6
11
8
15
5

21
20
32
22
24
121
75
32
25
24
18

18

40

44

EMI

11

It should be noted that effectiveness of agricultural adaptation strategies in different world regions to
expected climate change remain more uncertain in comparison with projections of production changes, given the
same technology and management. For the USA, for example,

54

projected yield changes of major crops derived by different authors with GCM scenarios are fairly the same. As far
as the adaptation goes, some authors believe that the USA farming sector can easily adjust to any climate change
with the exception of the most pessimistic scenarios. Such optimism relies on the introduction of agricultural crops
capable of making a better use of a longer growing period, development of water saving technologies, extension of
arable lands in those areas where growing conditions will become more favourable and their reduction where the
conditions are deteriorating. There is an opposite view (Ward et at., 1989, cited from Lewandrowski et a!., 1993J.
These authors stress the poor quality of soil where agriculture is expected to expand relative to where it is expected
to contract. They also question optimistic assumptions about future rates of technological change and the
availability of irrigation water. Finally, they note the huge outlays that would be required for water efficient irrigation
equipment and infrastructure relocation.
2.6

CONCLUSIONS

The report reviews only publications dated since 1990. It can be stated that the methodologies and
results of assessments of the impact of expected climate changes on agriculture did not vary considerably,
nevertheless, a notable progress has been achieved in this field. They are:

2.7

(i)

More adequate, reliable and detailed scenarios of climate change are adopted, the methods for
their interpretation have been improved;

(ii)

Models have been improved (the process-models of agroecosystem productivity together with
blocks describing the direct C02 effect on plants are adopted);

(iii)

There is unanimity on the view that when assessing the greenhouse effect on agriculture, the
relationship between climate changes and anthropogenic environment degradation should be
considered (i.e. the consideration should be given to changes in the climatic parameters, C0 2
growth, the increase of surface ozone content and ultraviolet radiation UV-B, soil degradation);

(iv)

More attention should be given to assessment of the impact of numerous stress factors
(combination of temperature, soil moisture, UV-B, nitrogen deficit, etc.) on plants;

(v)

Thanks to several international projects realized, the more reliable assessments have been
made of the greenhouse effect on agriculture at the continental and global level, though the
accuracy of these estimates as a whole cannot be considered satisfactory as yet;

(vi)

The studies of the effect of climate change and variability on grassland productivity, livestock
and soil fertility should be promoted (e.g. approaches to assess variations of the C0 2 content in
soil);

(vii)

The emphasis in this field seems to have shifted from the assessment of the consequences due
to climate change to the assessment of the efficiency of possible adaptations of different
agricultural systems (field, farm, region, country) to the expected changes in climate, soil,
chemical composition of the atmosphere.

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55

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Effect of probable increase in carbon dioxide and
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5t

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CHAPTER 3

METHODS AND TECHNIQUES FOR MICROSCALE MODIFICATION TO AVOID

OR REDUCE LOSSES IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
by A. Brunetti
3.1

INTRODUCTION

The terms of reference of the Rapporteur on "Methods and Techniques for Microscale
Weather Modification to Avoid o Reduce Losses in Agricultural Production" is more or less an extension of
the work carried out by the earlier CAgM-IX Working Group on Microclimate Management and
Manipulation Techniques in Low External Input in Traditional Farming" established for the intersessional
period between ninth and tenth sessions of CAgM.
For this report, the FAO definition of sustainable agriculture has been adopted: "... the
management and conservation of the natural resource base, and the orientation of technological and
institutional change in such a manner as to ensure the attainment and continued satisfaction of human
needs for present and future generations: Such sustainable development (in agriculture, forestry and
fisheries sectors} conserve land, water, plant and animal genetic resources, is environmentally non
degrading, technically appropriate, economically viable and socially acceptable" {FAO/Netherlands, 1991).
The field of interest of this paper is quite limited. The Rapporteur has been asked to examine
methods and techniques for microscale weather modification to avoid or reduce losses in agricultural
production. Several practices and techniques, used to modify the microclimatic crop conditions during the
growing cycle of a crop, such as greenhouse, plastic cover, mulching, shelter belts, intercropping, have not
been considered in this report because they are not used to avoid or reduce losses, but to permit or
improve crop productivity. WMO made quite exhaustive reviews on this subject area (Stigter, 1988; Karing,
1992) and it is therefore decided not to duplicate the efforts already made.
here.

The problem of Heat Stress is discussed elsewhere in this report and is therefore not included

One of the most studied adverse weather event, using microclimatic modification to avoid or
reduce loss, is frost. Although WMO Technical Notes No. 51, No. 118 and No. 157 have already examined
the problem of frost damages and gave some examples, this paper will update information on this problem.
The aspects treated in this report include hail and wind protection.
3.2

FROST PROTECTION - DIRECT METHODS

High-value horticultural and fruit crops grown in temperate climate are subjected to frost which
occurs during the crop growing season. Such frosts are severe at times. Frost protection is therefore
applied to avoid or reduce losses of production. Protection can be done with microclimatic modifications
techniques that consist mainly of modifying the energy balance of plant canopies in the field. The
modification can be done:

using heaters;
producing fog;
applying foam;
using sprinkler irrigation {on and under the canopy); and
using blowers {fans).

Methods and techniques differ according to the type of frost. Two kinds of frost are of general
interest: radiative and advection frost. The former occurs under a clear sky and calm wind, 6

60

while the second occurs by the movement of a mass of cold air. It is quite difficult to protect crops from the
advective frost. Attempts have been made in Argentina, Chile and other countries to protect from advective
frost, successfully.
About the use of heaters, WMO Technical Note on the subject gives enough information. The
cost of the heating fuel for orchard freeze protection remains very high.
3.2.1

Smoke

Smoke is a traditional way to avoid damages by frost. Researchers continue to study the
effects of new methods and instruments (Losi and Tassinari, 1991) used for smoke usage against frost
damage.
3.2.2

Sprinkler irrigation: use of water as a heat source in frost control

The use of sprinkler irrigation to reduce frost damage has several attractive features. First,
the energy input is low compared with traditional heaters; second, sprinkling is clean from the point of view
of the air quality; and finally, sprinklers have potential for other uses such as irrigation and fertilization
(Gerber et sL, 1979).
Sprinkler systems supplying water at a fixed rate are commonly used for protection of fruit
crops from frost. A control system automatically varies the precipitation rate according to simulated fruit bud
temperatures (Hamer, 1978).
Citrus growery continue to be interested in frost protection, using enclosures and
microsprinklers to avoid damages to trunk and main scaffolds (Edling et af., 1992).
The calculation of irrigation rates for frost protection of orchards based on given atmospheric
and crop parameters has been modelled. The model FROSTPRO (Katharine, 1986) using air temperature,
relative humidity and windspeed, as meteorological parameters, critical temperature and size of susceptible
plant part, gives, as output, the recommended irrigation rate. Running a range of expected scenarios prior
to a frost occurrence FROSTPRO can provide a grower with a guide to recommended rates. In addition,
running the model for the worst expected conditions can help the grower to determine if the system can
provide the required protection. If it cannot, the grower should resort to other methods of protection.
3.2.3

Fog

Efforts to produce artificial fog in order to avoid or reduce radiative frost during night time are
not new. The goal is to produce a fog which will able to increase the scattering of long wave radiation
emitted by soil or crop canopy in order to increase atmospheric back radiation and thus reducing the loss
from the system.
A method using the influence of artificial fog from pure water on air and bud temperatures
during cool nights under a clear sky is reported by Itier etal., (1987). The difference between air and bud
temperature within the fog tends to decrease compared to the air bud temperatures outside the fog.
A typical fog system, like Mee system (Mee, 1977), is designed to produce droplets with
diameters between 5 and 40 pm by means of mechanical atomizer using tap water. The water, filtered and
pressurized at 3.5 MPa is forced through nozzles that direct a fluid jet towards an impact pin shaped so as
to manufacture tiny droplets. In operation, the fog, generated at a height of 6-8 m, produced a 1-3 m fog
layer near the soil. The area covered by fog is dependent on wind speed and direction, but normally ranges
from 1 to 3 ha for a fog line 100 m long.

61

3.2.4

Wind machines (fans)

Wind machines continue to be more economical than heaters. Fans offer the potential of
warming large areas within an orchard at a relatively low operating cost, but the effectiveness is
demonstrated only in the fruit district in which most damaging freezes depend on temperature inversion.
The strength inversion (from 1.5 to 15 m), should be at least 1.5 - 2C during the coldest period. Renquist
(1985), investigated if the fans are able to protect the buds also without inversion.
The area protected by a wind machine is in the order of 3-4 hectares. Generally, the fans are
utilized to protect high-value citrus groves, fruit orchards, vineyards, kiwi and vegetable crops of special
interest.
3.3

FROST PROTECTION - INDIRECT METHODS

3.3.1

Delay in bud break

To avoid spring frost have been obtained by lowering the temperature of the trees with
intermittent sprinkler irrigation (Andersen et ai., 1975). According to Flore and Howell (1987), as the water
evaporates, it removes heat from the tissues and the cooling process delays bud development up to 3
weeks for apple and sour cherry. Delays are greater in arid regions and less in more humid regions (7-10
days). The normal procedure is to apply water when the temperature is 7C or above during the daylight
hours, for a period of approximately 2 minutes during 4-10 minute cycle. The maximum delay in bloom can
be achieved if water application begins shortly after sunset. The techniques have a lot of potential,
especially in arid zones (Gerber et ai., 1979).
3.3.2

Ice nuclation active

bacteria

Methods of preventing frost injury caused by epiphytic ice nuclation active bacteria like
Pseudomona sysringae and Erwinia herbicoia are largely studied especially on citrus (Yankofsky et ai.,
1981; Lindow, 1983). Active bacteria play an important role in inducing vegetative organs to freeze (Levitt,
1980).
3.3.3

Warning systems

The right application of all the approach to frost protection needs to forecast minimum
temperature. In addition to general forecasts, automatic systems, or very simple graphic methods, based
on psychrometric wet and dry temperature data (Ferrari and Ferretti, 1979), can help the grower to start
operations for preventing frost.
3.4

HAIL PROTECTION

Plastic nets operate a good defence against hail, avoiding or reducing losses. Hail can be
destructive for crop of high value and growers try to protect their crops in different ways. A growing interest
in the approach to hail defence can be directly attributed to the efficacity of the nets. They are used
generally on fruit crops, table grape, flowers and plant nurseries. The nets can be mobile and of different
colours. Most frequently the nets are black. The microclimate under the net is quite different in respect to
the open field in terms of radiation, humidity and temperature (Borzini, 1 985). Hail suppression by cloud
seeding has been attempted with some success in some countries.
3.5

WINDS

Plastic nets are used a mobile windbreaks to protect fruit crops especially during flowering
phase. The nets can be of varying heights. Microclimate is generally modified in terms of temperature,
humidity and, of course, wind.
3.6
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62

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63

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microsprinkler irrigation during freeze conditions. Proc. Fla. State Hort. Soc. 100, p. 109-112.
Rieger, M., Davies, F.S., and Jackson, L.K., 1986: Microsprinkler irrigation and microclimate of young and
orange trees during freeze conditions. Hort. Science. 21, p. 1372-1374.
Rieger, M., Jackson, L.K., and Davies, F.S., 1985: Freeze survival, trunk temperatures and regrowth of
young Hamlin orange trees as affected by tree wraps and microsprinkler irrigation. Proc. Fla. State
Hort. Soc. 98, p. 60-62.
Stigter, C.J., 1988, Hannah, H.E., Cook, A.F., and Martsolf, J.D., 1981: Remote sensing of thermal
radiation from an aircraft - an analysis and evaluation of crop freeze protection methods. J. Appl.
Meteorol. 20, p. 813-820.
Von Bernuth, R.D., 1990: Sprinkler system design for frost protection. Proceedings of the 1990 National
Conference, Irrigation and Drainage Division, ASCE, p. 39-45.
Wilcox, D.A., and Davies, F.S., 1981:
Modification of air temperature and citrus leaf temperature
with high volume under-tree sprinklers. Proc. Fla. State Hort. Soc. 94, p. 59-63.
Yankofsky, S.A., Levin, Z., and Moshe, D., 1981: Association with citrus of ice nucleating bacteria and their
possible role as acausative agents of frost damage. Current Microbiology, 5, p. 213-217.

64

CHAPTER 4
METHODS TO TRANSFORM BASIC KNOWLEDGE INTO
OPERATIONAL TECHNIQUES AND TO ADAPT OPERATIONAL
TECHNIQUES FOR USE ELSEWHERE
by F.B Ford and E.T. Kanemasu
4.1

INTRODUCTION

This report focuses on methods to transform basic knowledge into operational techniques and
to adapt operational techniques for use elsewhere. The report introduces and summarizes some methods
that can be used to transform basic knowledge into operational techniques that can be used to increase the
sustainability of agricultural production. An overview of these methods and tools, including modelling,
systems analysis, geographic information systems, remote sensing and demonstration is presented.
4.2

SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Historically, humans have adopted agricultural production techniques and land use patterns in
a manner consistent with their environmental constraints. For instance, traditional agricultural practices
such as shifting cultivation may be considered sustainable within the context of a migrating population
where minimal land pressures allow for long fallow and recovery periods. However, as the environmental,
agricultural, socioeconomic and climatic context of most agricultural systems changes, many practices are
used to meet the food and fibre needs of society can no longer be considered environmentally,
economically or socially sustainable.
The preeminent challenge currently facing agriculture is the development, adaptation and
adoption of agricultural techniques that meet the long-term food and fibre needs of growing populations
while maintaining the health of their natural resource base. Although there are many definitions of
sustainable agriculture, most specify that sustainable agriculture systems exhibit the following
characteristics:

provide for the long-term maintenance of agricultural productivity;

maintain the natural resource base;
provide adequate long-term economic returns to agricultural producers;
protect human health; and
provide for the needs of rural and urban communities in a manner consistent with
indigenous social fabric and goals.

Sustainable agriculture requires an integrated and site-specific approach to agricultural production

that evaluates sustainability within an environmental, agricultural and socioeconomic context. The
contextual and site-specific nature of agricultural sustainability mandates that agrometeorological
information be integrated into the design and evaluation of sustainable systems. As such, the importance of
climate and climate change as a limiting factor in world agricultural production is increasingly being
addressed and integrated into sustainable agriculture research and education programmes. Methods and
tools that have been used to incorporate climatic knowledge into the development of sustainable agriculture
systems include: modelling, systems analysis, geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing and
demonstration. These methods and tools are usually used in conjunction with one another in order to
provide unique sets of information to be used in the development, design and evaluation of sustainable
agricultural systems.
4.3
MODELLING
Modelling can be an important tool for testing and evaluating the sustainability of agricultural
systems. Steiner (1987) identified the following uses and/or benefits associated with modelling:

reductions in the need for site-specific, long-term field experiments;

interpretation of climatological records in terms of production potential;
evaluation of expected returns to management practices;
evaluation of risks associated with management decisions;
communication of research results between locations;
enhanced understanding of biological, climatic, chemical and hydrologic systems and

65

their interactions; and

conceptualization of multidisciplinary activities.

Wilson and Morren (1990) identified two basic model types: physically-based (quantitative)
and conceptual of symbolic (qualitative). The type of model used to describe a system or system
component is largely dependent upon the scale (temporal and spatial), level of hierarchical organization
and type of system to be explored and explained. Both of these general model types have been used to
describe agricultural and natural resource management decision-making.
There are numerous examples of physically-based models utilized in describing agricultural
systems. These models utilize empiricism and mathematical equations to describe processes and
relationships and vary widely in function and scale (temporal and spatial) of study. Quantitative models
have been used to describe the effect of climate and environment on agriculture systems (or system
components), including (but not limited to): livestock production (Neinabler et a/., 1987; Johnson eta/.,
1989), crop disease development, growth and yield (Johnson, 1989; Boote eta/., 1985; Wilkerson eta/.,
1983), soil solute transport, erosion and organic matter accumulation (Hillel, 1987; Parton eta/., 1987).
These models can be described using three general organizational levels:
1)
2)
3)

simple, statistical models;

intermediate, crop growth models; or
complex, process-oriented models (Steiner,

1987).

Several researchers (Normal, 1981; Stapper, 1986, Steiner, 1987) have characterized these
models on the basis of the relationships explored, scale, time step, use and character (Figure 4.1).
The CENTURY model, described by Parton et a/., (1987), is an excellent example of a model
that can be used to predict the impact of climate on agricultural sustainability and natural resource quality. The
CENTURY model integrates a soil and decomposition submodel, a plant submodel and a nitrogen
submodel to simulate the effects of macro environmental gradients on productivity and soil organic matter
over large areas in the Great Plains of the United States of America (USA) (Figure 4.2 and 4.3).
Subsequent validation (Figure 4.4) of the CENTURY model demonstrates that broad, regional trends in
productivity and organic matter can be modelled using only a small set of driving variables. Additionally,
because the CENTURY model includes the effects of management and soil and plant properties over long
periods of time (e.g. 500-2,000 years), it is also an important first step in modelling the effects of global
climate change.
Symbolic (or conceptual) models, as distinguished from physically-based (quantitative)
models, focus on describing relationships and interactions that may or may not be easily quantified or
described empirically. Symbolic models have been utilized to describe a full range of systems, from
ecosystems that can be described empirically (e.g. pristine ecosystems) to human-based systems that
include few environmental variables and cannot be described empirically (e.g.

66

government or family systems). Concomitantly, the site-specificity of the symbolic models vary for widely
applicable models to very site-specific models that are only applicable in certain distinctive contexts.
Forrestor (1961) introduced a symbolic language to describe dynamic flow in ecosystems
(Figure 4.5). This language has, to a certain extent, become standardized for the use of describing dynamic
ecosystems (Wilson and Morren, 1990). In developing this symbolic language, Forrestor first developed a
narrative description of dynamic ecosystems, which was later transformed into symbols. Each symbol was
then quantified and a rate equation established to describe system relationships. Smith and Langelands
(1973) used Forrester's symbolic language to develop a model illustrating the key relationships between
components in a grazing ecosystem (Figure 4.6).
Regardless of the model type (physically-based or conceptual), assumptions and
generalizations made in model construction must be explicitly stated and considered throughout model
application (Steiner, 1987). Additionally, all model output should be rigorously evaluated and an independent
data set must be utilized to validate predictability. In an essay outlining the limitations of modelling soil physical
processes, Hillet (1987) posits several principles that should guide the construction and operation of models,
including:
1)

Parsimony - a model should not be more complex than needed and should contain only
the minimum number of parameters needed to accurately describe the system;

2)

Modesty - no model is all-encompassing in describing complex systems;

3)

Accuracy - models should not describe phenomenon at a greater level of accuracy than
can be measured; and

4)

Testability - models must always be tested for both accuracy in theoretical depicting
relationships and validity in predicting outcomes.

Lastly, models should never be used as a substitute for experimentation, but instead as a tool
to provide a potentially more rational basis for experimentation. Despite these limitations and cautions,
models are a powerful and important tool that can be used in the design and evaluation of sustainable
agriculture systems.
4.4

SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

Because agricultural sustainability includes multiple and often shifting goals and objectives,
systems analysis provides an excellent framework in which to design, develop and evaluate sustainable
agricultural systems. The premise upon which systems analysis is based is that agriculture production can
be viewed and organized into systems that maintain their identity or integrity under a range of conditions,
and that exhibit properties that must be viewed holistically. Thus, Wilson and Morren (1990) state that the
objectives in systems analysis is to understand:

interactions among system components and hierarchies;

system emergent properties;

the transformations that occur between system components;

system control processes;

system communication links;

system objectives and performancemeasures;

system environment;

system resources, inputs and outputs;

and

details of management,
ownership or dominance.

t
!

67

Systems analysis techniques can be divided into two broad types of inquiry based upon the
methodologies used to understand and construct the system. Hard systems inquiry utilizes systems
thinking in the problem identification and model development stages {Figure 4.7), and almost exclusively
relies upon mathematical modelling. Hard systems analysis is appropriate for use when goals or end-states
can be articulated unambiguously at whatever organization level is being studied (BaWden eta/., 1984). In
contrast, soft systems analysis (Figure 4.8) incorporates the applications of a learning system which
includes human activities as a primary system characteristic {Wilson and Morren, 1990; Checkland, 1981).
As contrasted to hard systems analysis, soft system analysis uses mathematical approaches where
appropriate, but only after developing models that describe human activity within the system context. Soft
systems model are appropriate for use in describing complex situations involving groups of stakeholders
who have both an interest and a voice in events.
Soft systems approaches are particularly appropriate for use in the design and evaluation of
sustainable agricultural systems. Sustainable agricultural systems are complex and include
agoecosystems, natural ecosystems, social systems and economic systems that are linked and interrelated
in complex ways that are not easily quantifiable. The Farming Systems Research/Extension model
{McDowell and Hilderbrand, 1980) has been used widely to improve economic and technology
development in the developing world. Farming system research methodologies include the use of
interdisciplinary teams working in close contact with farmers in an effort to understand and describe the
physical and socioeconomic environment within which agricultural production takes place (Pluncknett et at.,
1986). Tools that are often utilized n farming system research approaches include: component research,
interdisciplinary research, applied research, modelling and on-farm research and demonstration trials
(Figure 4.9).
The importance of farmer participation in developing appropriate sustainable agriculture
technologies is highlighted in the farmer-back-to-farmer (FTF) model developed by Rhoades et a/., (1986).
The farmer-back-to-farmer (FTF) model posits that the development of appropriate research and
technology transfer must begin and end with the farmer. As illustrated in Figure 4.10, the FTF model
includes farmers in all aspects of research and technology transfer, including: problem identification,
seeking solutions, testing and adapting potential solutions and in final evaluation. Using the FTF model, a
multidisciplinary team of CIP researchers developed low-tech seed storage facilities appropriate for use by
rural farmers that were ultimately adopted by over 80% of the population. This high adoption rate can be
attributed, in part, to the use of the FTF model which included farmers as both innovators and designers in
the development process.
The Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resource Management-Collaborative Research
Support Program (SANREM-CRSP) utilizes a modified farmer-back-to-farmer model in which the user
population is expanded to include not only farmers but also other individuals and groups within a landscape
{Hargrove eta/., 1992). The landscape, as defined by the SANREM-CRSP, is a mosaic of interacting
ecosystems that includes humans as both inhabitants and manipulators of those component ecosystems the lifescape superimposed upon the landscape". This approach is uniquely suited to the development of
technologies for sustainable systems because it incorporates and address not only the interactions
between ecosystems, but also the primary interests and actions of end-users including individual farmers,
farm households, rural and urban communities within the landscape.
The SANREM-CRSP approach utilizes modelling in conjunction with systems analysis to aid
in the understanding of sustainable agriculture within the complex system (landscape) being studied.
Models are used in the SANREM-CRSP process:
1} at the field level to investigate the interactions between climatic and environmental
conditions and farming systems, and to determine optimum crop and livestock
management practices;
2) at the farm level to study the interaction between various farm enterprises;
3)
at the household level to study issues related to economics;
4)

at the community level to study traditional farming practices, indigenous knowledge and
the effect of farming system modification on the community economy and quality of life;

5)

at the watershed level to study the effects of current and modified farming practices on
water quality;

6)

at the ecosystem level to study the interaction of farming practices with the

68

environment;
7)

at the regional level to integrate the individual farm responses and to study regional
production patterns; and

8)

at the national level to provide information on long-term policy effects of sustainable

management systems.

Users within the landscape are integrated throughout model development, experimentation
and evaluation (Figure 4.11). At each level during the research and education process, models are used by
interdisciplinary teams as a tool to link with current data bases, analyze existing knowledge and
information, identify knowledge gaps, screen research option and to test promising results from
experiments, trails and surveys (Hargrove et a/., 1993).
The SANREM-CRSP approach is currently being utilized to develop research and education
activities within a Philippines watershed where water quality and water quantity have been identified as
primary system constraints to sustainability within the landscape (Hargrove et af., 1993). Systems analysis
and modelling is being used (in conjunction with participatory research activities) to determine how human
activities impact water quality and quantity, and to provide guidance to field oriented programmes in the
development of effective and sustainable land management options. These modelling activities are then
coupled with an examination of community perceptions of practices which affect water quality. These
perceptions, used in conjection with the results of the modelling activits, will aid in the communities'
development of alternative land management strategies.
The levels of complexity and extensive human interactions within agricultural systems
necessitate the use of methods designed to increase our understanding of the interactions and
interrelationships that affect the human, natural and agricultural production environment. Systems analysis
is a powerful inquiry package that can be used to understand and develop appropriate technologies that
help farmers and community achieve the multiple and dynamic goals of sustainability.
4.5

GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS)

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are uniquely suited for providing a framework in which
data of multiple themes, but common geography, can be spatially displayed, analyzed and interpreted. An
array of data and analytical option can be managed with GIS, including: spatial (e.g. land cover from
remotely sensed imagery, topography from terrain models, transportation networks, soils and hydrology),
attributes (e.g. crop yield, livestock populations, disease infestation, human population), that can be related
to spatial entities; spatial interrelationships (e.g. covariance among soils, topography, hydrology and land
cover); and simulation modelling (e.g. watershed response to changes in land cover). GIS are particularly
appropriate for use in interdisciplinary and systems approaches to sustainable agriculture research
because they provide a common framework for storage and analyses of both environmental and
anthropogenic data and can be used to analyze the effects of integrated technology adoption.

t
The SANREM-CRSP utilizes GIS as an integrative research tool in the development and
evaluation of sustainable agriculture technologies (Figure 4.12). Specific uses of GIS in the SANREMCRSP program include:
(a)

Register and merge disparate multitheme data to a common base for multivariate
analyses and modelling;

(b)

Provide effective data management and data awareness to link the multiple
investigators;

(c)

Provide effecient data distribution in a readily useable form to the investigators and
other who would benefit from the data;

69

(d)

Analyze spatial relationships and map patterns of interrelated variables;

(e)

Conduct standard variance and covariance analyses and modelling to establish

thematic and spatial linkages of the multiple data types;

4.6

(f)

Evaluate the impact of scale and detail of information on the resultant model for
investigating locational dependencies and spatial extrapolation of the results to other
watershed and to larger regions; and

(g)

Facilitate effective visualization and communication of results to decision-makers.

REMOTE SENSING

Although the use of remotely sensed data for monitoring and evaluating agricultural
sustainability is still in its early stages, the technique can potentially provide important information not easily
obtained by other techniques. Of particular interest is the use of remotely sensed data to evaluate
ecosystem characteristics and to monitor ecosystems changes.
While expensive, the use of LANDSAT imagery can provide important information on regional
changes in land use patterns and ecosystem health. The SANREM-CRSP plans to use LANDSAT data to
detail patterns and changes in agricultural land use, urban development, and vegetation distribution
(Hargrove ei ai., 1993). This imagery can potentially be an important tool for both researchers and users to
assess the impact of interventions on ecosystem health. Several studies have indicated that remotely
sensed satellite imagery can be a useful tool for conveying complex ecosystem relationships to
non-scientists (Warren, 1993).
One potentially important use for remote sensing is for the evaluation of genetic diversity in
large plant collections. Remote sensing offers the opportunity to display and categorize plant attributes very
quickly, thus allowing for a more effective us of "core collections" that are used to develop crop varieties
that exhibit desirable characteristics. The recent development of portable multispectral radiometers has
made it possible to assess small plots and fields several times throughout the season. Ground level remote
sensing offers the opportunity to display and categorize plant attributes of large field nurseries very quickly,
yet avoids many of the classical problems (e.g. registration, atmospheric correction, pattern recognition,
etc.) associated with large-scale remote sensing from satellite platforms. Traits that can potentially be
measured using ground-level remote sensing include: seedling vigour, leaf area, light interception, canopy
net photosynthesis, growth duration, plant senescence, bamboos production, plant height, plant lodging,
and heat and drought tolerance in terms of dehydration avoidance. Remote sensing of canopy spectral
reflectance can provide a rapid, non-destructive method for assessing plant-canopy biophysical parameters
and, consequently, crop growth condition.
Demetriades-Shah and Kanemasu (1989) surveyed techniques currently used to assess crop
condition. In their survey of the literature, they noted that while conventional broad-based spectral
vegetation indices are correlated with a wide range of interrelated agronomic variables, assessing overall
crop condition from crop canopy variables is still problematic.
While remote sensing can provide important information on both ecosystem health and crop
condition, it is important to note that remote sensing can only provide information of the effect, and cannot
be used to determine casual relationships. Remote sensing, used in conjunction with experimental and
systems analysis methodologies can provide important information for the evaluation of agricultural and
ecosystem sustainability.
4.7

DEMONSTRATIONS

On-farm demonstrations and research provide important opportunities to design and evaluate
sustainable agricultural technologies within their appropriate contextual framework. On-farm research and
demonstration can provide important feedback regarding the technologies developed, and can be used in
conjunction with on-station research to develop appropriate interventions that will be adopted at higher
rates as compared to interventions designed solely on research stations.
On-farm research is an important component of many research programmes conducted at
International Agricultural Research Centers. The International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) uses

70

on-farm research to help identify the factors that influence farmers' decisions, such as land tenure, land
markets, soil degradations, etc., that are not traditionally considered in on-station research programs
(Ashby and Vleck, 1986). Benchmark experiments, utilizing a large number of treatments and replications
are managed by researchers to screen new technologies. Farmer input into these experiments is sought at
an early stage, and later accompanied by research and demonstrations in which farmers choose and test
appropriate technologies on the farm (Figure 4.13). Technology validation, impact measurements and
adoption rates are monitored continually and used to refine and improve successful interventions.
Demonstrations also play an important role in outreach programmes that encourage the
adoption of sustainable management systems. The Agroforestry Outreach Project (AOP) in Haiti is an effort
to demonstrate the applicability of the agroforestry approach to sustainable land use under difficult
environmental and socioeconomic condition. The agroforestry technology demonstrated (Figure 4.14), in
which hedgerows are planted on the contour across a slope, appeared to be a promising and sustainable
technology for small farmers on the hillslopes of Haiti. However, early adoption was poor due to limited
outreach. In an effort to expand the use of these technologies, the AOP conducted demonstrations and
evaluations on 50 farms, and found that this technology resulted in soil conservation and microsite
enrichment between hedgerows while simultaneously providing fodder and fuelwood for the small-scale
farmers that adopted alley cropping techniques. The adoption of alley cropping techniques increased
dramatically from 11 lineal km in 1987 to over 140 lineal km in 1988, due, in part, to the success of this
demonstration and outreach project.

71

4.8

REFERENCES

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Bawden, R.J., Macadam, R.D., Packham, R.G. and Valentine, I,, 1984: Systems thinking and practice in
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Boote, K.J, Jones, J.W., Mishoe, J.w. and Wilkerson, G.G., 1985. In: Sivakumar, M.V.K. and Virmani, S.M.
(Eds.) p. 243-255, Agrometeorology of Groundnut: Proceedings of the international symposium,
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Checkland, p., 1981: Systems thinking, systems practice. John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, USA.
Forrester, J.W., 1961: Industrial dynamics. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA.
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Hargrove, W.L., Neely, C.L., Rhoades, R., Kanemasu, E.T. and Carroll, R., 1992. A landscape approach to
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Hillel, D., 1987: Modelling in soil physics: A critical review. In: p. 35-42, Future development in soil science
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March 1989, Charleston, sc, USA.
Johnson, D.E., Birkelo, c.p. and Bourdon, R.M., 1989: Simulation of climate effects on beef cattle. In:
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Norman, J.M, 1981: Data requirements for generalized physiological models. In: A. Weiss (Ed.), p.
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Proceedings from a workshop sponsored by the American Meteorological
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Parton, W.J., Schimel, D.S., Cole, C.V. and Ojima, D.S., 1987: Analysis of factors controlling soil organic
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72

Pluncknett, D.L., Dillon, J.L., and Vallaeys, G.J, 1986: Review of concepts of farming systems research: the
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Splinter, W.E., 1974:
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Modelling plant growth for yield prediction. Agricultural Meteorology 14,

Stapper, M., 1986: Modelling plant growth and development. In: p. 249-272, Plant virus epidemics:
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Wilson, K. and Morren, G. Jr., 1990. Systems approaches for improvement in agriculture and resource
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4.9

Simple

Empirtral

Ty p e

Statistical static

Relationships

Crop weather

Crop growth

Crop systems

Crop process

^. Mechanistic dynamic

Empirical
Correlative
Phenomenological

ANNEX TO FIGURES

Category

Complex

Intermediate

Mechanistic
Scale Time

Regional

Field

m2 -> Leaf

step Use

Seasonal

Daily

Hourly

Character

Operational

Operation al/Research

Research

Requires data from many years to

derived parameters to estimate yield

Limited scope (yield, (water use,

growth stage, leaf area, etc.)

Broad scope (yield, ET, soil

evaporation, canopy
temperature, dew, canopy
profiles, soil and canopy fluxes,
stomata) behavior,

Rely on plant being good integrator of

environmental effects in time and space

Figure 4.1 - Characteristics of crop models of different levels of complexity. Source:

Steiner, 1987^

Integration over time

and space explicit

%
i
o
>

77

STRUCTURAL
C
(3y)

METABOLIC
C
05y)

.55
ACTIVE SOIL C
U-5y)

F(T) - (.85-.88T)
CO,

LESS ACTIVE
SOIL

(25y)

Surface Litter Soil Litter

Lignin to Nitrogen ratio

PASSIVE SOIL C
(lOOOy)

Figure 4.2 -

Flow diagram for the C flows in CENTURY model.

Source: Parton et at., (1987).

Lignin fraction
Soil Silt + Clay content
(fraction)

78

STRUCTURAL
N
(C/N = 150)

PLANT

RESIDUE

METABOLIC
N
(C/N = 10 to 25)
SOURCE
ATM.
FIX.
FERT.

ACTIVE SOIL
N

(C/N = 8)

(M)

MINERAL
N
(NO3 4- NH4)

V
LESS ACTIVE SOIL N
(C/N = 11)

SINK
LEACHING
GASEOUS
EROSION
CROP

PASSIVE SOIL
N
(C/N = 11)

I = IMMOBILIZATION M
= MINERALIZATION

Figure 4.3

79

Flow diagram for the N submodel of the CENTURY model.

Source: Parton et. a\., (1987).

Figure 4.3

80
ABOVE GROUND PLANT PRODUCTION (g m2)

Figure 4.4 -

(a) Mapped aboveground grassland plant production for the Great Plains. The
triangles show the parameterization sites. The dots show the location of validation
sites. The triangles show the parameterization sites.

81

750
/

625

Aboveground Fiant Production

/
/
M*
M
/

en
en

375

...

03

250
en
a
O

125

ot
e

Figure 4.4 -

M*
/

0*

/
o

-i -------------- 1 ------------- 1------------- 1

---------------- 1-

125

250

375

500
2 1

SIMULATED BIOMASS (gm* y- )

625

(b) Comparison of mapped and simulated aboveground plant production for the 24
validation sites.

82

State variable or system level {in some applications). An element of a

system that changes only as a result of a change in a flow rate.

Auxiliary variable - Part or the flow-rate description but separated from that
symbol because it is most clearly described independently as a
mathematical function of two inputs.

Material flow - The path followed by a resource (material or energy)

through the components of a system from source to link.
Information or effect flow - Information line designates parts of feedback
loops controlling flows

1
KBB
fipl

Feedback loop - Any closed path through the diagram; must follow the
direction of arrows in information lines but need not for material flows
controlled by system areas. There are two types of loops, positive, which
generate growth, and negative,which tend to seek equilibrium.

Source or sink - Respectively, the origin of an important resource that

flows through the system, the state of any resource whose level is variable
within the system, and the rate of that resource in which it is irretrievably

degraded: both external to the system.

Rate or flow valve - Symbol for regulated flows of resources; flow rates
depend on system levels/state variables through an information network,
as shown by dashed lines and circles.

Initial condition - Starting rates and ratios affecting flows.

Driving variables - Variable rates and ratios affecting flows: data supplied
external to model.
Note: System structure consists only of variables (levels) and rates
(flows). Alternative names for symbols reflect variables adopted by a
range of users.
Figure 4.5 - Forrester's industrial dynamics language.

83

Source: Wilson and Morren (1990).

84

Q Weather Q T
data J

Viable seed

Plant
growth rate

Initial pasture
height

~" Waght of
herbage
Consumption Herbage
consumed
Length of
deferment

Height
change
Pasture
height -- x

/
f

Conversion
efficiency

liveweigbt
animal

Figure 4.6 -

nf

Dynamic flow model of grazing system in Forrester's language.

Source: Wilson and Morren (1990).

85

Figure 4.7 -

Process of hard systems inquiry.

Source: Wilson and Morren (1990).

86

Figure 4.7 -

Process of soft systems inquiry.

Source: Wilson and Morren (1990).

Figure 4.9 Functional activities and interrelationship among teams involved in farming systems research. Source:

Lai ei a/,,,i98E}L

Basic disciplinary research

Applied disciplinary
eesearch about
farmer's problem
86

Common
definition of
farmer's
problem

Ap iec

disci
piinarvj
. > 'V/*
-O'

*/

aoouc

farmer'

creel em
AA^

k* "i

i#

*::ir . ^
-a ,J

Activities

Goals

Potential solution to
Common definition of problem by farmers
A.
farmer's problem
and scientists

1.

Diagnosis of farmer's problem

2.

Interdisciplinary team research to

solve farmer's problem

3.

On-farm testing and adaptation

c.

4.

Farmer evaluation

D.

B.

Identify and develop a potential solution to

the problem
Better adapt the proposed solution to
farmer's conditions
Understanding farmer acceptance or
rejection of solution

Figure 4.10 - Farmer-back-to-farmer, a model for generating acceptable technology. Source: Rhoades
era/., (1986).

87

Modeling and the Research Process

Figure 4.11

The SANREM-CRSP approach to modeling and the research process.

Source: Hargrove et at., (1992).

88

Figure 4.12 - Conceptual model of the roles of interdisciplinary research, simulation modeling, and
GIS in the development of practices and policies that lead to sustainability. Source: Hargrove et at.,
(1992).

89

Figure 4.11

Fanning Systems Research

On-farm Research

Component Research

On-station Research

Figure 4.13 Flowchart showing alternative models for farmer participation in on-farm testing of fertilizer technology. Broken lines indicate feedback from farmers to
researchers.
Source: Ashby and Vlek,,i986r

Fanning Systems Research

Component Research

90

Figure 4.14 -

On-farm design and research for sustainable agroforestry in Haiti.

Source: Bannister and Nair {19901.

91
CHAPTER 5

USE OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION

TO ALLEVIATE HEAT STRESS
by F. Wang
5.1

INTRODUCTION

Temperature is one of the most important environmental factors for the growth and
development of living plants and animals. The normal life span of either plants or animals requires
appropriate temperature conditions. Any high or low temperatures will be unfavourable for the normal
growth or development of plants and animals, this may even severely influence the fertility rate and yield
formation. Temperatures exceeding the upper limits of tolerance of animals and resulting in the remarkable
reduction of their physiological action are called heat damage or so-called heat stress tor even high
temperature stress). At high temperature stress the development of plant roots is retarded, which leads to
premature senility and wilting (when the tree trunk falls), furthermore, its development rate is halted, and
the time of grain filling and ripening is shortened. All of the above lead to a reduction in yield, whereas for
animals a number of physiological balances will be interrupted and as a result, their resistance will be
weakened, their sexual maturity retarded, increasing the rate of infertility. Thus, the growth, milk yield and
fertility capacity would all decline sharply.
Heat stress exists in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of middle and low latitudes, especially
in arid regions of low latitude.
At present the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is on the increase, and
this has resulted in the warming of climate. It is clear that in such circumstances, the effects of heat stress
would be more serious and it would occur more frequently. In addition, some extreme events and disasters
induced by global warming, such as drought and heatwave will increase. All of these will therefore directly
influence the growth of plants, crop production and the natural ecological balance of the earth.
5 2.

HEAT STRESS DAMAGE

5.2.1

On plant growth and crop

production

Rice
Deleterious high temperatures appear in areas at low latitude, especially during the drier
seasons. Temperatures often reach 35-40C and sometimes exceed 45DC in Egypt and India. If high
temperatures occur during the vegetative periods, root development will be slowed down, affecting the
physiological functions of the root system seriously; equally, the tiller numbers will drop and the
developmental phase of the crop could also be affected. High temperatures during the reproductive periods
would cause the functional leaves to become premature, leading to wilting and yellowing and in a sharp rise
in the developmental process, hence, reducing the time of grain filling. This would cause poor seed quality
and increase the rate of imperfect grain by 30%. In extreme cases, it might be higher than 40-50%. This is
so-called high temperature-hot damage. It occurs in double rice cropping regions in West Africa, in the
south of the Changjiang River in China, in India, Thailand and Pakistan in Asia, as well as in central and
southern America. (Robertson, 1975; Tai et aL, 1 982).
5.2.1.1

5.2.1.2

Wheat

During the ripening periods of wheat, when temperatures are over 30C, relative humidity
below 30% and at the same time wind speed is > =3m/s, another kind of heat stress occurs, dry-hot wind,
or dry-wind of wheat. This weather condition results in a series of adverse effects, for example, the leaves,
stem and ear turn yellow, the glume white, and the weight of the grain decreases immensely. In serious
cases, the reduction of the weight of grain is more than 5-6g. This dry-hot wind often occurs in the major
wheat-producing areas of northern China, the Ukraine, and in the central and western parts of the United
States (Chinese Agricultural Encyclopaedia, 1986).
5.2.1.3

Potato

92

The cool-season potoato crop is also subject to heat stress damage during the later periods of
tuber formation. High temperatures are unfavourable for leaf expansion, tuber formation and in general, for
the production of potatoes. When temperatures rise between 22-28C, the tuber size and weight are
reduced, and the tuber/haulm ratio is decreased. If air temperatures reach 30C or above, then tuber
growth is inhibited and development halted. Furthermore, the potato crop is more likely to be infected by
disease-producing germs, hence reducing the level of production of the crop (RA VI, 1988).
5.2.1.4

Sugarcane

Sugar cane is a tropical/sub-tropical crop, but high temperatures over 34C during
germination and tiller growth may also reduce the rate of extension (elongation) and slow the time of earing
down. When plant transpiration intensifies the sugar cane will show signs of wilting through a lack of water
but equally because of high temperatures above 36C. As a result, photosynthesis is inhibited and dry
matter production is decreased. There is often deleterious heat stress in some sugar cane-growing areas,
such as Egypt and Mozambique in Africa, India and Pakistan in southern Asia and Brazil, Argentina and
Peru in South America (Biswas, 1988).
5.2.1.5

Basic physiological processes

The basic physiological processes of heat stress damage can be described as follows: under
high temperatures the chlorophyll activity of plant leaves decreases, thus photosynthesis is greatly affected;
equally the changing phases of the cell membrane occur, causing the translucency to disappear and the
transference capacity of photosynthetic products (assimilates) to decline. In addition, under high
temperatures, the water content of the leaves is reduced, their activity and capacity for absorption of the
roots declines and finally the water and nutrient balances of plant tissue are destroyed. However,
temperature increases can lead to crop growth and development in the early stages, beyond which, there is
a sharp decline in plant growth and maturity (with further rises in temperature). This means that there would
be a non-linear relationship between temperature, crop growth and development. Furthermore, the
elevated temperatures also result in increasing respiration, slow root development and generally, in a
slower developmental process.
5.2.1.6

Interaction of heat stress and water stress

It should be pointed out that although in a conceptional sense water stress is a different kind
of constraint on plant growth and crop production than that of heat stress, both however are closely inter
related, and sometimes even appear simultaneously.
Increased heat stress will result in the loss of soil water through enhanced vapotranspiration.
Water stress, consequently would be increased and could produce more damaging effects on the crop
growth and development. This clearly reveals the complexity of heat stress damage, especially in
conjunction with water stress (through drought and dry-hot winds). Despite a regular supply of water, high
temperatures would still induce an appreciable change in the water exchange, in the relative growth of
organs, and the grain content of the ear and yield production. In drought-prone regions of the world, heat
resistant plants should be considered for the development of sustainable agriculture (Altergott et al., 1972).

93
5.2.1.7

Conclusion

It can be seen from

the above that heat stress is not an unusual problem whcih affects
a multitude of crops. The common symptoms and consequences of heat stress are as follows: once the
process of photosynthesis is inhibited, the development rate will be increased, the premature senility of
functional organs will appear and the time of grain filling will be shortened. Thus, the dry matter
accumulation is decreased, and consequently, the grain yield is reduced. The degree of damage will depend on
the intensity of the high temperatures and the variety of crops. In cultivated areas, this would lead to varying
degrees of heat stress and to a number of physiological and ecological reactions of the crops to heat stress.
This is due to the complexity of the interaction between heat stress and water stress.
5.2.2

On fruits

5.2.2.1

Sun scald (or

sunburn)

The severe damage of heat stress to fruit is sun scald or sun burn and It is caused by drought,
the loss of water, combined with high temperatures and strong solar radiation. Under dry conditions in the
summer, plant transpiration decreases, due to a shortage of water supply. The temperature of the fruit and
tree branches (positioned at the sides) that are exposed to sunlight and to strong solar radiation will rise
sharply. This will cause damage to the skin of the fruit, which in turn will lead to russeting and occasionally
to cracks in the skin, through which fungi would be able to penetrate. Hence, the fruit will decay, for
example, apples, grapes, pineapples. (Villiers de, 1963). Sun scald also occurs in the middle of the winter
season or in early spring, during which the tree trunks of fruit trees are exposed to solar radiation and
therefore warm up rapidly. When temperatures are over 0C, the cells during the winter hibernation may
defrost in the daytime, but freeze up at night, this is due to temperatures below 0C. This alteration of
freezing and melting processes may result in the cells dying, the bark of the trees falling off, as well as in a
number of other diseases.
5.2.2.2

Influence oh quality (transportation and storage)

High temperatures over optimum also have adverse effects on the formation of fruits,
rendering it difficult for them to be stored and transported. Grown at high temperatures, the fruits are
characterized by uneven ripening, premature dropping, and by a reduction size. There is also less intense
colouring and the further decaying of the trees. High temperatures equally result in diseases such as
crinkle, which is due to high orchard temperatures in August, and this has been observed in apples grown
in the United kingdom, the United States and in Australia. The fruits damaged by russeting and scabs, or
fruits with cracks are clearly unsuitable in terms of quality, but equally unsuitable for transportation and
storage. The rind of fruit is also affected by high temperatures and low humidity, and as a result, becomes
coarser and thicker. In citrus fruits, the moisture content of pulp and the peel decreases as the climate
becomes hotter and drier. The changes in climate are responsible for seasonal variations in the chemical
composition of fruits (pineapples in Hawaii, prunes in Italy), which have too little acid and much more sugar.
(WMO,1963).
5.2.3

On forest trees

5.2.3.1

General

The germination of tree seeds and their growth depends on the temperature of the
environment. Within a range of favourable temperatures, the enzyme activity of plants intensifies,
photosynthetic process increases and therefore the growth of trees is rapid and unperturbed. Generally, the
maximum temperature for tree growth is about 35-40C (Li, 1981), while the green trees in tropical and
sub-tropical areas can tolerate temperatures of approximately 45-50C. Bark burn and root-collar burn often
occur under heat stress.
5.2.3.2
Bark burn
Bark burn is a form of heat stress, caused by an increase in the temperature of bark, when
exposed to strong solar radiation in the summer. The cambium and living tissue of the thin and smooth bark
of mature trees becomes damaged, resulting in the scarring and shedding of the bark. Hence, fungi may
enter through the open wounds, thereby severely affecting the growth of trees and causing them to wilt or to

94

die.
The degree of damage varies with different species, the age of the stand, its location, and the
duration of radiation. Young lings of shade species are more prone to bark burn. Some trees, such as
spruce, fir, linden, poplar, and willow (Li, 1981) are subject to damage, because of their smooth bark and
their strong heat absorption. In addition, the temperatures in open fields are higher than those of forests
and hence the trees at the edge of the woods or in sparse woods are far more likely to be seriously affected
than others.
5.2.3.3

Boot-collar bum

In hotter summer months, strong solar radiation greatly accelerates the temperature of the
soil's surface. This causes the soft root-collar of young plants or younglings to become damaged and the
transporting tissue and living cambium tissue are also destroyed. This results in a ring wound of several
millimeters in width in the shoot-collar, positioned close to the ground. The trees will gravitate towards the
ground after being damaged, and as a consequence die. Root-collar burn is related to micro-climate, the
soil, topography and tree species. In general it occurs in dry-hot seasons and in areas of sandy soils, but it
is also associated with dry-hot climates.
5.2.3.4

Forest fire

Forest fires are one of the major natural disasters affecting forest vegetation resources and it
is also another form of heat stress damage. Their occurence and development are closely related to fire
sources, combustibles and weather-climate conditions, of which the weather conditions, especially
temperature are key factors. Apart from rainfall and air humidity determining the water content of
combustibles, temperatures may not only affect the air humidity and evaporation rate, and the toss of water
in combustibles, but equally directly increase the temperature of combustibles- In the case of continuous
dry weather, the higher the temperatures, then the higher the probability of a forest fire. Hence, when high
temperatures are associated with strong winds, the risk of forest fires will be greater.
5.2.4

On animals

The body temperature of livestock and poultry remains relatively stable, while the variations of
ambient temperature remain rather unstable. Livestock and poultry regulate their own physiological
functions in order to adapt to the changes in environmental temperatures. The degree of adaptation
depends on the age, species, developmental stage and feed management. If the range of temperature
exceeds the level of tolerance in livestock and poultry, there will be a series of physiological changes, and
the metabolic energy balance will be interrupted, influencing the normal growth and fertility rates.
Under heat stress the body temperature of livestock and poultry rises, the feed intake and the
digestive system become affected, and the efficiency of feed utilization is decreased, resulting in weight
loss. When livestock and poultry are exposed to a humid environment, their body temperature generally
increases, which could cause an elevated heart and respiration rate, this can also result in death, if the
central nervous system becomes paralysed.
Generally, the high mortality rate of livestock in the tropics is caused by heat stress and the
period of heat tolerance will be shortened, due to ever increasing high temperatures. The maximum level of
heat tolerance of poultry is lower than that of livestock. When temperatures reach 30-32C and above, then
there are serious repercussions: the growth of broilers slows down, the yield of edible meat declines, the
production of commercial eggs falls, the thickness of the shells is reduced and the size of the eggs
diminshes (WMO, 1 988a).
The influence of deleterious high temperatures on fertility rates is more significant. Humid
environmental temperatures, combined with high humidity can alter the pituitary, ovarian and adrenal
hormone concentrations and further decrease the quality and quantity of semen and egg production,
leading to poor conception and high abortion rates in female livestock. Summer infertility is a common
problem in pigs. High temperature stress during the late gestation period increases the mortality rates at
birth, reduces the weight of piglets (at birth), and equally lowers the survival rate of lambs.

95

It is obvious that high temperature stress will have adverse effects on the sustainable
development of livestock and poultry (WMO, 1988a).
5.2.5

Effect of heat stress on insect pests and diseases

The occurrence and spread of diseases, insect pests is controlled by many factors, such as
the resource of the diseases, insect pests, parasites, food, but equally climatic conditions, although the
weather conditions favourable for insect pests and diseases always differs.
5.2.5.1

Insect pests

On average, insect pests require temperatures of about 20-30C, for survival and
development. High temperatures over 30C are unfavourable for their development and renders them
inactive, reducing their rate of migration. For example, the ideal air temperature for the growth of pink
bollworm (cotton pests) is approximately 25-28 C. When the temperature exceeds the threshold value (31
C), the fertility rate of an adult and the survival rate of the eggs decrease remarkedly. High temperatures of
over 35C may also produce high egg mortality rates. At 40C, there is a 100% mortality rate of the larva, in
addition, high temperatures will equally retard the development of the surviving larvae. The rise in
temperature over the threshold for pests which migrate over long distances, will inevitably inhibit their
migration as well as influence the population size in the migrated regions (WMO b).
5.2.5.2

Diseases

Similarly the development of disease-producing germs requires certain temperatures. The

difference between the occurrence of pests and the development of disease-producing germs is that the
spread of the latter is determined not only by temperature, but also by air humdity, although air humidity is
usually a more important factor. The disease sheath blight in paddy rice occurs at high temperatures and at
high humidity. These meteorological conditions combined with temperatures of 28-32C and relative
humidity at 95%, result in diseases and in infection. In southern China and in the Yangtze River Valley, the
summer season's high temperatures and abundant rainfall, is the period when rice earing is usually subject to
infection. Hence, rice production is considerably reduced.
The scab of wheat is another disease influencing wheat production in China. Under high
temperatures of over 2C and humidity above 80%, it takes only 2-3 days for germs to enter the plants, infecting
them and spreading diseases. (Fan et a!., 1980; WMO, 1988b)
5.2.5.3

Conclusion

It is clear that high temperatures, along with suitable humidity are favourable for the spread of
infection and infestation, insect pests and diseases, thereby impeading plant growth and crop production.
5.2.6
Effect of heat stress on others
5.2.6.1

Soil erosion and desertification

Temperature is one of the key factors influencing evaporation and transpiration.

Temperatures determine the diffusion rate in vapotranspiration and at the same time control the stomatal
conductance. Relatively high temperatures lead to evaporation, reduce soil moisture in the upper horizon
(0-20cm), thus increasing the wind erodability of these layers (WM0,1983).
Serious erosion often occurs in arid and semi-arid regions with sandy soils. For example, in
the north-western parts of China, high temperatures combined with dry air and strong winds result in the
soil erosion of uncultivated land. This will bring about the great loss of organic matter, nutrient materials and
water, thereby leading to serious desertification and to the further deterioration of the ecological
environment for agriculture. Desertification will be more serious in arid and semi-arid regions of temperate,
sub-tropical and tropical zones.
5.2.6.2

Pollutants
In addition to desertification, the air temperature gradients influence the diffusion of the

96

pollutants into the biosphere and their transportation and deposition. Air temperature also affects the rate
and type of chemical reaction: the higher the temperature of the soils, the more rapid the chemical activity
and volatilization of pollutants in the soil. These changes will affect the balance of agro-ecological systems
and the substainable development of agriculture (Williams, 1986).
5.3

USE OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION TO ALLEVIATE HEAT STRESS

FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

As mentioned above, heat stress has many undesirable even harmful effects on crops, fruit,
forests, livestock, poultry, insect pests and diseases. However, high temperatures combined with drought
or high humidity occur under certain atmospheric circulatory conditions, therefore, heat stress is expected
to occur. It is necessary and feasible to develop an efficient agrometeorological information and forecasting
service system, based on a weather station network, an agrometeorological observation station network, as
well as dynamic monitoring by remote sensing, hence alleviating the adverse effects of heat stress on
agriculture.
5.3.1

Agrometeorological information service

A great deal of relevant information, such as the intensity and duration of high temperatures,
the duration of dry days, precipitation and soil moisture, the spread of insect pests and diseases, the
damage done to crops and to animals (including the degree and extent of the damage) could all be
collected in time by meteorological and agrometeorological station networks, using the relevant indices of
heat stress. Information can be prepared and issued either before heat stress takes place, or just as it
intensifies. Such reports should include counter-measures and suggestions relevant to management units
of agriculture, farmers and related government departments. For instance, THI (Temperature-Humidity
Index) has been used for several years in the U.S.A, as a warning signal and guide for precautionary
measures (Hahn et a/.. 1989):
THI = 71-80 Alarm THI =
79-83 Danger THI >84
Emergency
This information is usually written for agrometeorological weekly (10-day, monthly) bulletins, it
can also be presented as a special agrometeorological report. The concrete service materials have various
forms, such as reports, figures, tables and data. Sometimes the satellite images of dynamic monitoring by
remote sensing can be used for the detection of dry-hot weather damage or rice or wheat, forest fires and
so on. In order to improve time efficiency telephones, faxes and broadcast TV can also be used.
5.3.2

Weather forecast services for agriculture

Based on the specific medium and short-range weather forecasts issued by the
meteorological bureau (or service), in accordance with the index of heat stress, the forecasting service,
should include the probability of heat stress increases, their intensity, size and scale, as well as their
characteristics, additionally, any precautionary measures to be taken by government departments,
management agencies and farmers. For example, if heat stress is anticipated, then farmers would be able
to spray water or chemical drugs on fruit trees or on young plants, protecting and shading them from sun
burn (root-collar).
Besides the above mentioned information services and weather forecast services for
agriculture, the agrometeorological forecast services are also carried out in agrometeorological forecasts of
heat stress. It is not only the duration, intensity, adverse effects and damage to regions that are outlined,
but equally precautionary measures and suggestions are put forward. Agrometeorological forecasts are
often submitted to agricultural management units or to government departments. They require this
information, in order to be able to adopt appropriate precautionary measures, to adjust the price of relevant
products such as pesticides, chemical drugs and equally to make decisions on disaster relief measures, the
trading of agricultural products etc. The forecasts may also be sent to farmers through the post, by radio or
by telephone, in order to inform them of any possible disasters. Therefore, they would be able to take the
necessary counter-measures in the field and animal houses, so as to minimize the damage caused by such

97

disasters.
5.3.2.1

Forecast of dry-hot winds

The forecast of dry-hot winds refers to the type, duration and intensity (in the early stages) in
affected areas. The forecasts of different time scales (long-term, mid-range and short-range) are provided
according to the requirements of users based on the methods of synoptic weather or statistical models.
Farmers can either spray chemical drugs to enhance the resistance of wheat to dry-hot weather, or irrigate
at the yellow maturity stage, to improve field micro-climatic conditions (Wang et a/.,1990).
5.3.2.2

Forecast of forest fires

The possibility of forest fires occurring, their duration, scale and size, should be included in the
forecast of forest fires. Existing meteorological conditions, the type of combustibles and the source of the
fires are equally important sources of information. The forecast of forest fires is one of the important
methods of fire prevention (Wang er a/., 1990).
5.3.3

Satellite remote sensing monitoring and information service

Remote sensing, especially satellite remote sensing is an advanced technique for obtaining
information on earth resources and the environment. At present, the macroscopic and dynamic monitoring
by remote sensing has been widely used in the development of agriculture, forestry, livestock, husbandry,
fishery, water conservation, mineral resources surveys, global environmental protection and for
meteorological services. For the meteorological departments, remote sensing techniques are successfully
used not only in weather forecasts and crop yield estimations, but also in the detection and monitoring of
various meteorological disasters.
The forest survey was done in the early part of this century, by means of aerial photography.
Later the satellite remote sensing technique was introduced as the landsat has its limitations. The NOAA
satellite is a fairly reliable method of monitoring forest fires, because it is designed for large scale field
viewing and for high temporal resolution, making the rapid monitoring of the targets possible.
The 3-5 spectral band is highly sensitive to hot targets like forest fires. The AVHRR channel 3
13.4-4.3} is far more sensitive to temperature. Both channels 3 and 4 consist of a double-band detecting
system for improving spatial resolution and temperature sensibility. The colour image of polar-orbiting
satellites may clearly show the position and development of forest fires. In detecting, monitoring and
combating the forest fire of 1987 (from May 16 to June 2) in the Da Xinggan Mountains of China, the most
serious catastrophe ever observed since 1949, the NOAA satellite real-time image information service
played an important part (Cheng, 1 993; Zhang, 1 989).
5.4

SOME METHODS/MEASURES ADOPTED TO ALLEVIATE HEAT STRESS

From the point of view of current agrometeorological applications, the following

technologies/measures, to alleviate heat stress can be cited:
5.4.1

Breeding of new heat-resistant varieties

According to Altergott (1972) the heat-resistance of plants in natural conditions is due to the
occurrence and interchange of depolymerization (catabolism) and repolymerization (anabolism) processes.
These processes stimulate plant growth, increase the regeneration process in non-affected tissue,
accelerate the secondary growth of plants and their development, but equally, improve productivity and the
quality of fruit. Thus, the development of new heat-resistant varieties could enhance resistance to high
temperature heat damage and minimize the use of water, as well as increase productivity and quality.
5.4.2

Use of mulching technologies

High temperatures (often in excess of 40-50 C) put severe pressure on almost at plant
species, and gives rise to exceptionally high evaporation. The stubble/residue mulching technologies (e.g
straw mulch) could be employed to reduce solar input and hence, high surface soil temperatures, soil
moisture stress and improve yield productivity. It is beneficial to make use of this type of technology in

98

combination with irrigation, or other available technologies, in order to alleviate heat stress damage.
However, it could also be widely adopted by farmers almost anywhere in the world, both in developing and
developed countries.
5.4.3

Increase of irrigation and sprinkling

This is one of the most important measures to combat serious heat stress damage.
Irrigation/sprinkling could decrease high surface soil temperature and the temperature of vegetation cover
and enhance any surplus water for evaporation. The constant use of irrigation/sprinkling depends on the
water resources and economic funds available, in order to build an irrigation-sprinkling system. It is
therefore only used in limited areas and on a micro-scale.
5.4.4

Adoption of ventilation-management measures

In some areas of the sub-tropics and tropics, high temperature-heat stress often occurs with
high air humidity, which are undesirable for grain storage but also for the normal growth and fertility of
livestock and poultry. For animals, such conditions of high temperature and high humidity results in a series
of physiological changes, their resistance to pests and diseases will be weakened, their sexual maturity
retarded and hence, their growth, milk yield and fertility capacity will all sharply decline. In this case,
ventilation-management measures are very useful and beneficial. This new technology is currently being
widely adopted, both for grain storage, the housing of animals, and their transportation during the summer
months.
5.4.5

Adjustment in the area distribution of the current cultivars

The warming of climate caused by greenhouse gases could make heat stress more serious
and frequent, but it could also affect plant growth and crop production. In China, the warming of

99

climate would lead to large parts of the present double cropping area to be replaced by a triple cropping
system, while the current double cropping areas would shift northwards, towards the central part of the
current single cropping areas. Hence, the northern boundary of triple cropping areas would shift from its
current border at Changjiang River towards the Huanghei River, a shift of more than 500km. Undoubtedly,
it is necessary to adjust the distribution of the current cultivars and to adopt a different variety of species,
but equally to develop new measures and farming methods, in order to mitigate and/or adopt such drastic
changes ( Wang et al., 1994; Hulme et a/., 1992}.
5.5

CONCLUSIONS
{a} Heat stress damage is a problem which occurs frequently in agricultural production;
(b)

5.6

The effects of heat stress damage are:

(i)
It hastens the development procedure of crops, causing insufficient grain filling
and premature growth;
(ii)

Induces the imbalance of the physiological metabolism of livestock and poultry,

decreasing resistance to pests and to diseases and weakening fertility;

(iii)

Causes bark burn, root-collar and sun scald, resulting in poor fruit quality and
even in forest fires;

(iv)

Gives rise to the development and spread of insect pests and diseases;

(v)

Intensifies wind erosion and the desertification of soils.

(c)

High temperature stress mainly occurs in the arid and semi-arid regions at low and
middle latitude and sometimes in temperate zones. Hot dry summer seasons give rise
to heat stress, although heat stress may also occur in the dry winter seasons or humid
summers. It is obvious that high temperature damage is very deleterious for the
sustainable development of agriculture, because of its spacial distribution, seasonal
variations and changes;

(d)

Heat stress is a type of meteorological disaster. In order to reduce its unfavourable

effects on agriculture, it is necessary and advantageous to analyse the mechanism of
its occurrence and evolution. Furthermore, it is important to study its different
characteristics and to provide the various agrometeorological information services.
These information services can be used on real-time, dynamic monitoring and for the
provision of background weather information, furthermore information on the
occurrence and development of heat damage enables the forecasts of different time
efficiencies and spacial scales to be made. Relevant agricultural countermeasures and
suggestions concerning the level of damage are also included in these services.
Different kinds of agrometeorological information services (reports, data, tables,
graphics and images) can also be provided for users (agricultural management
sectors, government departments and farmers) through postage, faxes, consultations,
for example. The economic benefits are quite significant, but it also promotes the
sustainable development and protection of agriculture.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Considering that high temperature-heat damage (or so called heat address), like any
agrometeorological disasters, should be fully analysed before the situation becomes more critical under the
present climate situation, and noting that the research in this field is not sufficient CAgM should undertake
its work through its working group or rapporteurs:

(a)

!
Review of the current heat stress-damages in the world agricultural production;

(b)

Studies in the relationship between the warming of climate and heat stress damage;

100

{cl A survey on the potential impacts of heat stress on the sustainable development of
agriculture;

5.7

(d)

Promotion of agrometeorological information and knowledge, in order to combat heat

stress damage;

(e)

Impart intensive training on the operational application against agrometeorological

precautionary measures and techniques against heat damage.

REFERENCES

Altergott. V.F. 1972: The formation of functional heat resistance. In book: Physiology of plant adaptation to
soil conditions. Novosibirsk, "Nauka".
Altergott, V.F., and Mordkovich, S.S.,1972: The part of elevated temperature in complex drought effect on
plants. Physiology of plant adaptation to soil conditions. Novosibirsk, Nauka".
Biswas, B.C. 1 988: Agroclimatology of the sugar cane crop. WMO/TN-No.193.
Cheng Chunshu, 1993: Climate and Agriculture in China. China Meteorological Press.
Chinese Agricultural Encyclopaedia, 1986. Agricultural Publishing House {in Chinese).
Fan Huaizhong eta/., 1980: Plant pathology. Agricultural Publishing House (in Chinese).
Hulme, M., T. Wigley, Tao Jiang, Zong-ci Zhao, F, Wang, Yihui Ding, Leemans, R.( and Markham, A., 1992:
Climate change due to the greenhouse effect and its implications for China CRU/WWF/SMA.
Banson Production. London.
Li Jingwen, 1981: Forest ecology. Chinese Forestry Press {in Chinese).
RA VI Working Group on Agricultural Meteorology, 1988. Agriculture the potato crop. Part I,
WMO/TD-No.239.
Robertson, G.W., 1975: Rice and weather. WMO/TN No.144.
Tai Huajie., and Lai Kemiao,1982: An experiment on the damage of summer's high temperature on the
earing-flowering of early rice. The Collected Papers of Meteorological Science and Technology (3)
Agrometeorology, (in Chinese).
Wang F., Feng Dingyuan, Zhang Hongming, Yang Jiwu, and Lu Zhiguang, 1990: A summary review of
agrometeorological forecast. Agricultural Publishing House {in Chinese).
Wang F., 1993: System for transmitting information to the final user, the Report of the CAgM-IX Working
Group on practical Methods to Transfer Knowledge and Techniques for Group and Livestock
Production and Protection for yield Assessment. Chapter 4, Geneva.
Wang F. and Zhao Zong-ci, 1994: Climate change and agro-ecosystem in China, "Climate Change and
World Food Security" edited by R.S. Chen, T.E Downing, R.W Kates, M.L Parry, and
Springer-Verlag.

101
Williams, G.D.V.,1986: Land use and agrosystem management under severe climate conditions, Chapter
4. WG of CAgM. WMO/TN No.184.
WMO. 1963, The effect of Weather and climate upon keeping the quality of fruit. WMO/TN No. 53.
WMO. 1983. Meteorological aspects of certain processes affecting soil degradation, especially erosion,
WMO/TN No.178, Chapters 3 and 4.
WMO. 1988. Animal health and production at extremes of Weather. WMO/TN No 191. Chapter 4.
WMO. 1988. Agrometeorological aspects of operational Crop production. WMO/TN No 192.
Zhang Jijia, 1989:
Weather Satellite Monitoring the Fire in the Da Xingan Mountains Acta
Meteorological Sinica, 147 (2).
5.8

ANNEX

Table 5.1 - Heat stress damages in sustainable development of Agriculture.

Objects
Crops(coolseasonal
thermophilic)
Fruits

Forest trees

Impacts & Characters

Deleterious
High Temp.
>30-35C

inhibition of photosynthesis, hastening

maturity, premature senility of organs,
decrease of dry matter accumulation and
yields

late spring, summer

and autumn

sun scald, russeting, coarser and thicker

rind, quality, storage and carrying

winter-early spring dry

summer-autumn

bark burn, root-collar burn, forest fire

winter dry season

summer-autumn

>0C > 35-40C

>30C-32C

summer-autumn
winter

>30-35C

summer

>28-32C

Animals
(livestock and
poultry)

physiological and metabolizable balance,

fertility: conception, abortion, mortality and
survival rate

Insect Pests

fertility of adult, survival rate of egg,

mortality larvae, migration

Diseases

Main Seasons

infection, breaking out and prevailing

Soil

erosion, desertification

dry periods

Pollutants

chemical activity, volatilization, diffusion,

transport and deposition

>0C
>35C

102

Figure 5.1 - A brief scheme of operational processing and of services of agrometeorological information to alleviate the heat stress for sustainable agricultural
production and protection.

103
CHAPTER 6

PROBLEMS RELATING TO HIGH INDUSTRIALIZATION AND

AGRICULTURE, INCLUDING ASPECTS OF QUALITY OF PRODUCE
AND DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
by W.N. Lablans and R. Mulder
6.1

INTRODUCTION

In many highly industrialized countries, agriculture nowadays is confronted with stress factors
which endanger the sustainability of agriculture. Such factors do not exist when most of the current
meteorological services for agriculture were established. Stroganova and Dommermuth (1990)
comprehensively renewed the many subjects which deserve the interest of the agricultural meteorologists
in the industrialized countries. The present report will therefore examen a selection of these topics which
can be incorporated in the agro- meteorological advisory services, which can contribute, as much as
possible, to mitigate the effects of the stress factors that endanger the sustainability of agriculture in the
industrialized countries.
6.2

THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINABILITY

The concept of sustainability in general has been discussed comprehensively in section A of

the report. In the industrialized countries, the degradation of the environment especially water resources
and the quality of air are threatened due to activities in agriculture.
6.3

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

The agrometeorological services are very diverse in nature and in methods. It will therefore
be helpful to have a classification and discussion on how the services can be adapted to the present day's
requirements and to strengthen the services.
(a) Operational services;
(b Tactical services (time scale of a season);
(c)
Strategic services (time scale of years and decades of years).
The classification of Hrbek was categorical with respect to term scales. For this report
operational services are defined as services which are provided on a regular basis. Apart from advice
pertaining to the actual field and weather situation the operational services should, as much as possible,
provide advice for the longer-term. For instance advice which pertains to the season should be updated
regularly and then be included in the operational services.
6.4

ADAPTATION OF THE AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES WITH RESPECT TO

DEGRADATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
Two forms of degradation of the environment are identified:
(a)

Degradation of the environment by emissions of polluting substances from sources

other than agricultural activities which affect agriculture;

(b)

Degradation of the environment by agricultural activities.

The former has been under study for a long time and survey papers are available such as
CAgM Report No. 55 (WMO, 1991). Recent developments are reported in CAgM progress reports of the
industrialized countries. Possibilities to define operational advice in this field seem to be restricted, but
possibilities for application for research findings may be found on the strategic time scale, such as advice
on growing crops of safe distances from sources of pollution.

104

Furthermore in some countries the acquired knowledge is applied for assessing and refunding
of damage to crops due to emissions of pollutants. The degradation of the environment by agricultural
activities is of special interest, as the application of chemicals for crop protection purposes and of fertilisers
is becoming more and more restricted and regulated, to mitigate (further) degradation of the environment
by agriculture.
Recently Bouma and Wartena (1993), have given interesting examples of how, in chemical
crop protection existing agronomical and meteorological knowledge can be combined, so that the best
choice can be made out of the available pesticides and herbicides under various meteorological conditions.
Due attention is given to the influence of past and present weather on the condition of the plant tissue,
which determines the effect of the agents. Such integrated knowledge can be applied in the advisory
practices of both meteorologists and agronomists (Bouma 1993). Such considerations should in our opinion
be complemented by advice on biological and mechanical methods for crop protection against pests and
weeds.
Pollution of soil and water, due to chemical fertilisers and manure has received due attention
of the research institutes. The application of manure may also cause significant pollution of the air and can
cause, after atmospheric transport and deposition, unacceptable damage to ecosystems, elsewhere.
Research in this field is in the early stages and agricultural meteorologists as well as atmospheric scientists
will together be involved in these studies from the start.
6.5

ADAPTATION OF SERVICES RELATED TO QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF THE

PRODUCTS

This subject is directly related to the activities of the agricultural enterprises, which are often a
threat to the sustainability of some important branches of agriculture. The problems connected with the
quantity of products, mostly caused by overproduction, are int eh industrialized countries not only related to
weather and climate; they are also strongly related to the market situation. This problem will be dealt with in
low input farming (Paragraph 8).
More directly related to meteorological factors are the quality aspects of agricultural products.
While a high quantity of a crop can have its disadvantages, negative side effects of a high quality product
are virtually never noticed, on the contrary, often a reasonable price can only be obtained for products of
high quality.
The influences of weather and climate on the quality products have comprehensively been
dealt with in the literature. The available knowledge should be applied through the advisory services, while
of course the research in this field should continue. The quality of agricultural products is a complex
concept, it is different for each crop, every stage of production (including storage and transportation) and
eventually a good quality as experienced by the user of the products has to be secured.
Payen (1990), surveyed the influence of meteorological factors through eight crops, which
are of great importance in some of the industrialized countries. The monograph on pome fruit is especially
enlightening in this respect. In fruit production, the quality aspects have always been a decisive factor for
success in production and marketing. Such monographs on the agrometeorological aspects have already
been reviewed as early as 1963 by WMO, (WMO, 1963), later by Pereira (1975) and recently by
Wagenmakers (1991).
A striking feature in this review in the great variability in the effects of weather on quality.
Sometimes the influence is immediately apparent after a meteorological event, such as damage due to
storms or frost. In other cases, the influences can only be assessed later in the season and are only
observable by careful inspection or analysis of the products, such as the moisture content, the sugar
content, the acidity, pesticides residues etc. Even subtle differences in the composition of a product may
determine properties such as the baking quality of wheat, the maintenance quality, or even cosmetic
properties, such as colour and shape, which may considerably influence the market value. Here, the
agrometeorological adviser should not concentrate on the immediate effects of the actual weather - on the

105

condition of the crop in the field, but also take into account the possible effects of the weather on the
condition of the crop in all the later stages.
This means that advice directed especially at a product of good quality should not only deal
with the time scale of the season, but also with the time scale of the tactical advice. Such tactical services
will be very crop specific and more agronomical expertise will be required than is normally available in the
Agrometeorological Services, especially in the stages of the development of the methods and possibly in
the formulation of advice. Cooperation with agronomists is inevitable in this regard.
For the extended time range of the tactical services, the meteorological component will have
to comprise of information of a climatological nature for the period beyond the range of weather forecasting.
Especially, the statistics on the probabilities of significant deviations from normal climatological conditions
are of importance. Such data enables the calculated risks for the occurrence of conditions which may be a
threat to the quality of products.
From such calculated risks, the treatment of the crop may be attempted, in order to give the
best chances to achieve a good quality product. Most of the existing agrometeorological advisory services
pertain to farm work planning on the time range typical for weather forecasting. Such advice, e.g. those on
crop protection against pests and diseases, already involve quality aspects of the product {WMO, 1998). It
is advisable to investigate the influence of the advice provided during the remainder of the season.
A series of short-term advices which each are adequate for the actual situation, can easily
lead to a total dose of pesticides on the scale of the season which is not acceptable for ecological reasons,
or which enhances the risk of the development of resistance. Another example of a typical tactical decision
may be found in the advice on water supply. The shortterm vision might be a water gift which keeps
vapotranspiration at a potential level, so that plant growth proceeds optimal, particularly in the dry period.
From the point of view of quality however, it might be advisable for some crops, to allow a period of water
stress, e.g. for crops where a relatively low water-content {and possibly a somewhat lower yield)
contributes to a superior quality of the product, which is the case for some cereal and fruit species.
For periods in the range of 310 days ahead a new instrument for risk assessments has
become available, in the form of probability distributions for the weather to be expected (Figure 6.1). These
probability distributions are calculated on an experimental basis by so-called ensemble forecasting, an
extension of the current numerical weather forecasting techniques. This method may serve to fill the gap
between the short-term deterministic weather forecasts and the climatological statistics (Muraeu era/.,
1993).
Especially the results for precipitation amounts are illustrative: on the one hand this shows
the restricted predictability of the weather for a specific day, but on the other hand, it gives a convincing
picture of the weather type and tendencies during the next 10 day period. Incorporating tactical
components" in the existing day-to-day services restricts the necessity of developing special tactical
services. This is in accordance with the general principle, that tactical considerations have to be given
shape in the operational environment. There are some more reasons to assume that the possibilities for
special "tactical services in favour of the quality of products are restricted. Damage to the quality of a crop,
with either direct or late effects, is in general inflicted by incidental adverse weather, so that possible
measures, which can mitigate the damage, are already for a good deal incorporated in operational advice.
Weather conditions, which are favourable for the development of a good product quality are often
prolonged periods of favourable weather. In these periods, often no more than routine farm work is needed
to keep the crop in a good condition, so that relatively little special advice or meteorological information as
required.
Finally some forms of advice, however related to weather and climate, will fit better in
specialised forms of agronomical advice, than in the routine of an agrometeorological service. An example,
can be taken from Wagenmakers (1991) review for the apple crop, for the optimal distribution of sunlight
and shade, which can be achieved by choosing the right planting system, and in some cases by an adapted

106

pruning practice. Since such advice may differ for one cultivar to another, it can best be given by
agronomical specialists on the basis of their insight into the effects of meteorological factors on the crops
concerned than by meteorologists.
6.6

AGROTOPOCLIMATOLOGY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE

In the present time the question is whether within regions of the scale of a continent, a crop
can best be grown in a sustainable way for decades or years. Agrotopoclimatology has been dealt with in
an elaborate way by Machattie and Schmelle (WMO, 1971). The classical methods of Agrotopoclimatology
will have to be complemented with the aspects of sustainability, and therefore, not only should the problem
be analysed in a region where the climatological and soil conditions are considered to be favourable, but
equally, in regions where such crops can be grown with the restricted use of chemicals, without damaging
the environment. There should also be sufficient clean air and a water supply, and finally, access to a
profitable market.
This area is also therefore one, where agricultural meteorologists can only operate
successfully in multi-disciplinary groups. Only part of this work will have the character of the classical
agrotopoclimatological field work, but most of the work will consist of applications of the modern
crop/weather relationship models.
The first generation of crop/weather models had the purpose to estimate the potential yield of
a crop, under optimal conditions of water supply, plant nutrition and crop protection. In these models, the
context of sustainable agriculture, not those of optimal circumstances should be simulated, furthermore, the
circumstances as imposed by the requirements of a sustainable production should also be included.
6.7

PHENOLOGY AND SUSTAINABILITY

Dirmhirn (1986) has in the mid-eighties questioned whether or not there would be a future for
agrophenology. Dirmhirn then went on to analyse the classical applications of agrophenology and recently,
there has been renewed interest in phenology. Crop protection often depends strongly on the stage of
development of the crop. In modern advisory systems therefore, the phenological stage of the crops is
introduced as an input parameter. (Deutscher Wetterdienst, 1993).
In this respect attention should be paid to both the vulnerability of the plants to pests ans
diseases in relation to their phenological stages and to the phenological aspects of the choice of a chemical
or mechanical treatment (WMO, 1991).

107

6.8

LOW INPUT FARMING

Farming with a low input or chemicals and as a consequence of a relatively low yield would in
theory be a remedy for problems like degradation of the environment and overproduction. In practice a
drastic or rapid shift from the current practice of high input farming to low input farming is, for economic
reasons, not foreseen by most agronomists in the industrialized countries.
Nevertheless, a lowering of the input of a number of chemicals and of manure will be imposed
on agriculture by regulatory measures. Furthermore, there is a growing market for products which are
certified as grown with a low input of chemicals and being free of pesticide residues. It is therefore
worthwhile for agrometeorologists in the industrialized countries to study the experience gained through the
years by the agricultural meteorologists who were involved in the low input farming system in developing
countries.
6.9

INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT

Integrated Pest management (IPM) where chemical and biological crop protection methods
are combined in a sophisticated way, it is accepted as a valuable contribution to the development of
sustainable agricultural production systems. The research in this field is well organised and published
regularly (Damen and Rabbinge, 1991).
Agricultural meteorologists should support IPM both in the stages of research an application.
The work of Bouma and Wartena (1993) can be seen as a step towards a further integration of new
elements in the integrated pest management.
6.10

INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT

Crop protection systems are now being developed where expertise from several disciplines
have been combined in computer software of the so-called Support Systems (Secher et al., 1991;1993).
It can be seen from Figure 6.2 that meteorological aspects get proper attention in these
systems. In some countries such systems are developed with the framework of the agricultural advisory
service, but in some industrialized countries the national agrometeorological service has developed such a
system, where agronomical expertise is introduced (DWD, 1993).
Characteristically for such systems, there

are computer aided as the computer can both be used

for the collection of data, for calculations with the help of models and for the dissemination of advice, and
hence, it becomes a powerful tool. The actual field situation is so complex that human expertise and
scouting in the field are indispensable for an optimal quality for the advice (Turkensteen and Lablans,
1988).
Developments in the communication technology, for example computer-linkage, enables the
transfer of advice to the farmer which has been combined with the most adequate and up-to-date
meteorological information. Crop protection advice is only a part of such farm work decision advisory
system, which therefore can be combined as part of an Integrated Management" system.
6.11
ANIMAL PRODUCTION
It is well known that animal productions influence by meteorological factors, but as yet
optional advice in this field is scarce. In some industrialized countries the animal production has taken the e
form of bio-industry, with very dense populations of the livestock, which enhances the risks of outbreaks of
diseases. Also the transport over national borders can give rise to enhanced risks.
A fine example of a meteorological service in this domain is the system of rapid localisation of
infected cattle in case of an outbreak of foot and mouth disease, on the basis of a meteorological model for
the dispersion of the virus. The system was developed through the cooperation of veterinarians and
meteorologists in the United Kingdom (Rumney, 1986) and is now also in use in some other countries as a
contribution towards the sustainability of animal production.

108

6.12

CONCLUSION

From the above, it can be concluded that the agrometeorological services in the industrialized
countries have to be strengthened on all time scales. On line services are required for optimal day-to-day
farm work planning. Components for the time scale of the season will have to incorporated in the
operational services to avoid a disappointing result to the end of the season with respect to the quality of
the product and degradation on the environment.
Strategic agrometeorological considerations should support the planning of sustainable
agriculture on the time scale of decades or years. Such a strenghtening of the meteorological services for
agriculture cannot be realised without the active support and cooperation of the agricultural community. The
discussion on developments in agricultural meteorology, which are considered as necessary and feasible,
should therefore not be held within meteorological circles only.
Agricultural meteorologists will have to devote part of their time to intensify the contacts with
the agronomists, on the basis of concrete and convincing suggestions for cooperation. Furthermore, it is to
combine human expertise with the possibilities of new technological tools (computers the Internet, etc),
which may raise the interest of the agricultural community.

109

li*w%
ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR: NETHERLANDS O' '1 *
DATE: 9 403 IB DEBUT LAT;52.1 LONG: 5.15
T213 T83

TEMPERATURE 850hPa Probability for 1.0 d*g Intarvsla

.10
0

Ranc*: JOrfeg

Forocttt Oey

to

CnumHa mam bar a ot TOTAL PRECIPITATION Ac cum. rata mnVSih

Fotxiil Pay
GEOPOTENTIAL 500fiPa Probability for 2.S dam Inlarvala Rang: agdarn

FSIMMI Oay

Figure 6.1 -

'

la

10

Some results of the ECMWF ensemble forecasting over a 10-day period.

no

Figure 6.2 -

Using PC technology in plant protection warning systems (From Magnus et a/., in

Sechter and Morall, 1991).

6.13

111

REFERENCES

Bouma, E. , (1993): The influence of weather on choice of pesticides. Proceedings of the Workshop on
computer-based Plant Protection Advisory Systems. Danish Institute of Plant and Soil Science. SP
Report No,7.
Bouma, E., and Wartena, L, (1994): The influence of weather on pesticides. PAGV report No.166. (In
Dutch).
Dirmhirm, I., (1986): Hat die Agrarpheanologie eine Zukunft? Sonderheft Arboreta Pheanologica 31.
Daamen, R.A. and Rabbinge, R. , (1991): Risks, forecasting and tactical decision-making in integrated pest
and disease management. EPPO bull. 21, p. 461- 467.
Deutshcer Wetterdienst., (1993):
Brochure of the Agrometeorological research unit
Braunschweig of DWD on the computer-aided agrometeorological advisory systems AMBER.
Hrbek, J., (1983): Meteorological forecasts and other services for agriculture. Eppo Bull. 13, p. 915.
Mureau, R., Molteni, F., and Palmer, T.N. , (1993): Ensemble prediction using dynamically conditioned
perturbations. G.J. Roy. Met. Soc, 119, p. 299-323.
Payen, D., (1990): Influence du temps et du climat sur la qualit des rcolts. CAgM Report No.35. WMO,
Genve.
Pereira, H.C. (Ed.), (1975): Climate and the orchard research review No. 5. Commonwealth Bureau of
Horticulture and Plantation Crops. East Mailing. C.A.B.
Rumney, R.P. , (1986): Meteorological influences on the spread of foot and mouth disease. J. Appl.
Bacteriology 1986.
Secher, J.M., and Murall, N.S. , (Eds.), (1991): Proceedings of the Workshop on computer- based DSS on
crop protection. Danish Institute of Plant and Soil Science. SP Report No. S2161.
Secher, J.M. , Rossi, V. and Battilani, P. , (Eds.), (1993): Proceedings of the Workshop on computer-based
Plant Protection Advisory Systems. Danish Institute of Plant and Soil Science. SP Report No.7.
Stroganova, M. and Dommermuth, H.,(1990):
Report on New Specialised
Agrometeorological Services in Countries with Highly Developed Industries. CAgM Report No.35.
WMO/TD-No.502.
WMO, (1988): Meteorological aspects of operational crop protection. WMO/TN192. WMO Genve.
Turkensteen, L.J., and Lablans, W.N. , (1987): Meteorological aspects of disease management on potato
crops. Acta Horticulturae 214, p. 157-170.
Wagenmakers, P.S. , (1991): Planting systems for fruit trees in temperate climates. Critical Reviews in
Plant Sciences, 10, p. 369-385.

112

WMO, (1963): The effect of weather and climate upon the keeping of quality of fruit. Technical Note No.53.
WMO, Genve.
WMO, (1991): Agrometeorologie operationelle. Receuil de notices phenologiques.
WMO, (1991): Assessment of air pollution effects on plants CAgM Report No.55. WMO No.556.