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A Case Study on Economics of Pokhari Tal Water

Harvesting Pond at Koilapani Nawalparasi

Submitted to:
IIED/LI-BIRD
Pokhara, Nepal

Submitted by:
Shiva Chandra Dhakal
IAAS, Rampur
June, 2009

1. Introduction
1.1 Background
Nepal is an agrarian country where still 65.7 percent people are engaged in agriculture.
Agriculture is the principal component of economy which has been contributing about 38
per cent of GDP. Present growth rate of economy is 3.6 percent per annum and that of
agriculture is 3.7 percent per annum (CDP, 2008)

Nepal has enormous water resources for irrigation development. Her irrigation potential
is 1.8 million ha. At present, Nepal is making use of less than 8 per cent of its water
resource potential. It is estimated that about 69 per cent of the total cultivated area of land
could be irrigated if the available water resources are properly utilized (Yoder, 1996).
The challenge for present is to break out the vicious circle of poverty by accelerating the
agricultural growth rate. Commercialization and market oriented production is essential
to have overall development of the country. Due to high pressure on agricultural land,
expansion of area to meet demand is of limited scope. Therefore, intensification of
agriculture may be the effective solution.

In spite of the attractive plan of APP and planned development of the country, the pace of
agricultural development is far below the expectation. The reasons behind this are
traditional type of farming, lack of agricultural marketing, fragmentation of land holding,
physical constraints etc. Irrigation facility has greater prospective to bring more area
under cultivation to increase agricultural production and productivity. For intensification
of agriculture and to increase productivity of crops, continuous and assured supply of
irrigation is recognized as the prime input. Convenient irrigation systems are recognized
as the pre condition for the adoption of strategic programmes of APP and the planned
development of the government.

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The development in irrigation is inadequate and their performance is less than expected.
The agricultural sector has still relied largely on rainfall. Frequent drought and excessive
rain have hampered the actual growth of agricultural production on one hand, while on
the other; the rapid population growth has led to a situation of food import. Shifting from
traditional subsistence type agriculture to modern commercial and diversified one is
necessary to escape from existing vicious circle of low agricultural productivity.
Adoption of modern technology and extension of irrigation facility could be the solution
for breaking the age old productivity growth stagnation.

Heavy precipitation with large temporal variation is a typical problem facing the
management of water resources in the region, and the problem is likely to intensified in
the future with anticipated scenarios of Global Climate Change. Promotion of water
harvesting can be an adaptive strategy for existing as well as projected impacts as such on
water resources. Water harvesting systems are particularly suitable for the mountainous
regions where majority of the population have to spend a lot of physical energy and time
to fetch water from far away springs. In addition, large amounts of precipitation in the
mountainous region make it an area of higher potential for water harvesting. Water
harvesting through the use of tanks and small pounds and reservoirs may also contribute
towards minimizing the occurrence of floods in downstream areas and towards increased
agriculture productivity. Water harvesting system has successfully been tasted in some
parts of Nepal already.

The study was conducted in Nawalparasi district of Nepal. The study area is situated
between 27°12′ N to 27°47′ N latitudes and 86°36′ E to 84°35′ E longitudes, covering an
area of about 2017 square kilometers. The district is surrounded by Chitwan in East,
Rupendehi in West, Palpa and Tanahun in North and India in South. The district has three
distinct climatic regions i.e. tropical, subtropical and temperature lying in the altitude of
100 to 1936 masl.

Like many other developing countries, in Nepal urban centers are also expanding quickly.
To meet the irrigation water of increasing population in semi-urban area of Kawasati,

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Nawalparasi the water used for irrigation was diverted to Kawaswati from Koilapani. In
compensation for the use of the irrigation water users of Kawaswati area has provided a
fund of Rs. 4500000 to the looser of Irrigation water. Irrigation water user of Koilapani
area has decided to reconstruct historically and religiously important Pokhari Tal to meet
irrigation water requirement on draught in the changing scenario of climate change. The
study is thus aimed to do economic analysis of newly restructuring Pokhari Tal in
Nawalparasi.

The Pokhari Tal water harvesting pond is managing by a steering committee having nine
members:
President: Shiva Prasad Bhattari
Secretary: Roshan Bahadur Rawat
Treasure: Chandra Kant Adhikari
Members: Lal Prasd Dhungre
Hom Lal Subedi
Durga Adhikari
Kethman singh
Leknath Adhikari
Shiva Chapagain

1.2 Rational of the study


The most critical impacts of climate change in Nepal can be expected to be on its water
resources, particularly agriculture, glacial lakes, and its hydropower generation. Climate
change impacts on water resources will affect Nepal through a number of pathways,
including disasters, hydropower, irrigation, and domestic water usage. These changes, in
turn, could place additional burdens on the livelihoods of communities in highland
regions. With the dependence on agriculture, over 80 percent of all water in Nepal can be
used for irrigation. In fact, almost 38 percent of agricultural land (mostly in the Terai
Plans) is irrigated, highlighting the importance of integrated water resource management
to sustain livelihoods. Nepal's 6000 rivers feed irrigation systems, power grain mills, and
supply drinking water for villages for thousands of miles downstream.

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Like many other developing countries, in Nepal urban centers are also expanding quickly.
Over 20 percent of the population is now in urban areas, and this is growing by about 5
percent per year. Ensuring adequate water resources for all of the country's various uses
will become an increasingly urgent issue, especially with the added impacts of climate
change (Sharma, 2003).

Table 1.1: Average annual weather data of Study area


Year Maximum temperature (oc) Minimum temperature (oc) Rainfall (cm)
1990 29.69 18.77 NA
1991 30.44 17.74 NA
1992 30.81 17.36 NA
1993 30.58 18.02 NA
1994 31.20 18.50 NA
1995 28.39 16.01 NA
1996 30.66 18.14 NA
1997 30.60 17.24 NA
1998 30.64 19.29 219.85
1999 31.46 18.60 211.83
2000 30.75 17.21 175.35
2001 31.15 17.69 195.09
2002 32.00 18.19 211.70
2003 30.62 18.25 244.46
2004 30.73 18.25 135.58
2005 31.32 18.07 144.83
2006 31.36 18.55 166.43
2007 30.72 18.57 228.55
2008 30.41 18.18 148.83
Source: DDC and DADO, Nawalparasi, 2008 (NA: Not Available)

Maximum and minimum temperature for last Nineteen years and rainfall data for last
Eleven years were collected and regretted in relation to time factor to observe average
annual change in trend of temperature and rainfall. Following results were obtained from
the trend analysis:
Maximum temperature (oc) as function of time factor (in year)
Y=30.20+0.05T
Minimum temperature (oc) as function of time factor (in year)

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Y=17.74+0.02T
Average annual rainfall (cm) as function of time factor (in year)
Y=251.88-4.46T
These results show that maximum temperature and minimum temperature are increasing
by 0.05 oc and 0.02 oc respectively. Against these, average annual rainfall is decreasing
by 4.46 cm per year. These facts shows that average annual temperature is increasing
year by year and average annual rainfall is decreasing year by year. This shows the
necessity of sound irrigation facility especially for winter season crops to maintain and
increase area, production and productivity under crops. Among different sources of
irrigation, water harvesting could be one of the better alternatives. This study aims at
studying feasibility of such water harvesting pond with the following objective.

1.3 Objectives
The study was aimed to judge economic feasibility of Pokhari Tal Water Harvesting
Pond located at Koilapani Nawalparasi. The objective of the study is thus to calculate
NPV, IRR and B: C ratio to perform feasibility study.

2. Methodology
2.1 Study area

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The study was conducted at Koilapani of Shivamandir VDCS in Nawalparasi. The case
study was done in Pokhari Tal, which is one of the pioneer water harvesting ponds in the
country. After the diversion of irrigation water to Kawasati residential area from
Koilapani, the drinking water user group of Kawasati has provided compensation of
Rs.4500000 to reconstruct the Pokhari Tal water harvesting pond to irrigate the cropped
land.

The study site lies at the distance of about 10 km. far from the East-West highway. It is
linked with all weather graveled road up to East-West highway which shows it’s assess to
market. The product produced here at Koilapani can easily be sold at Narayangarh,
Bhairahawa and even up to Kathmandu valley. The study site falls within the subtropical
climate. It has three distinct seasons: monsoon/rainy (June to Oct), winter (Nov to Feb),
and Spring (March to May). The hottest months of the year are April, May and June,
when the maximum temperature raise to 40 0C and the coldest months of the year
November to February with minimum temperatures varies from 6-10 0C and even lower
but never approaches to freezing point. Monsoon rain starts from June to September, and
June and July receive the highest rainfall upto 150 mm in 24 hours, which is common
during these months. Relative humidity starts rising from May and reaches to 100 per
cent in December and January. The western rain prevails in winter seasons, which
contributes only a fraction of annual rain fall.

2.2 Data and their sources


Both primary and secondary data were collected for the study. Primary data included the
data on capital investment amount, cropping pattern, variable cost of production, crop
income and estimated operation and maintenance cost. Data on these variables were
collected through group discussion and key informants survey. Similarly, required
secondary data were collected through publications of different governmental and
nongovernmental organizations.

2.3 Analytical tools

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The purpose of doing economic analysis of project in this study was to find out whether
the investment will yield a reasonable rate of return to all resources engaged in the
establishment of water harvesting pond. To do the investment analysis of Talpani water
harvesting pond, discounted measures of investment appraisal namely Benefit-cost ratio
(B-C ratio), Net present value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were used. The
criteria are explained below:

2.3.1 Benefit-cost ratio (B-C ratio)


Benefit-cost ratio (B-C ratio) was taken as the ratio of present worth of incremental
benefit stream (cash inflows) to present worth of incremental cost stream (cash outflows)
due to the pond.
Present worth of incremental benefit stream due to project
B-C ratio =
Present worth of incremental cost stream due to project

n
Bt
∑ (1 + i )
t =1
t

= n
Ct
∑ (1 + i )
t =1
t

where,
Bt= incremental benefit in tth period due to project (Rs.)
Ct= incremental cost in tth period due to project (Rs.)
n= number of years
i= interest (discount) rate (%)

Establishing the pond by the community will be financially feasible if the present worth
of incremental benefits is greater than the present worth of incremental costs due to
project or in other words, the B-C ratio exceeds one.

2.3.2 Net present worth (NPW)


It was used as discounted cash flow measure of absolute profitability. Net present worth
(NPW) was computed as present worth of incremental benefits (cash inflows) less present
worth of incremental costs (cash outflows) due to project or, in other words, as present
worth of incremental net benefit (net cash flows) due to project.

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n
Bt − C t
NPW = ∑ (1 + i )
t =1
t

Where, the notations on right hand side of the equation stand for the same meaning as
given under B-C ratio.

The investment on project will be financially feasible if NPW is positive.

2.3.3 Internal rate of return (IRR)


It is that discount rate which just makes the net present worth of incremental net benefit
stream equal zero. Thus, it is that value of ‘i’ which makes:
n
Bt − C t
∑ (1 + i )
t =1
t =0

The notations are same as given under B-C ratio.

In other words, IRR is the maximum interest that a project can pay for the resources used
if the project is to recover its investment and operating expenses and still just break-even.
The method for interpolating the value of IRR lying between the two discount rates, too
high on one side and too low on the other (between a spread of five percentage points) is
given below:

 
L o w De ri f f e r e n c e 
N Pa l W
t o w
d i es rcr ao tu e n t
I R = dR i s c+ bo eu tn wet te we no t h
 A b sd oi fl uf ebt er et nw e cNe e eP nW t h
r a t e d i s cr ao tue ns t 
 a t dt wi s ocr ao tu e n s t 
Investment in project would be financially feasible if IRR is greater than market interest
rate on loan.

2.3.4 Estimation of parameters of the investment criteria


The specific details of the estimation about number of years (n), benefit stream, cost
stream and discount rate (i) are given below:

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2.3.4.1 Number of years (n)
The economic life of a pond was taken equivalent to 30 years considering the life of
assets used in diversion canal. In this study initial investment was assumed as the cost of
first year.

2.3.4.2 Cost stream or cash outflows (Ct)


Cash basis accounting was followed in preparation of incremental cash outflow stream as
per accounting convention followed in investment analysis. Expenses were assigned to
the period in which they were paid instead of the period in which they were incurred.
Periodic (yearly) cash outflows were prepared for the 30 years of the project period.

Annual cost stream (cash outflow) included capital cost and operational and maintenance
cost (O and M cost). Capital cost included expenditure made on establishing pond and
allied diversion canal and gate at prices prevailed in 2007-08, the reference year of the
study. These expenditures were shown as initial investment in the first year of the project
period. Yearly O and M cost included expenditures on amount paid to peon and security
gourd, annual cleaning of the pond, maintenance of pond wall, increasing the cost of
cultivation due to change in cropping pattern and interest cost.

2.3.4.3 Benefit stream or cash inflows (Bt)


Cash basis accounting was followed in preparation of cash inflow stream also. Receipts
were assigned to the period in which they were earned. Periodic (yearly) cash inflows
were prepared for the 30 years beginning from second year of the project. Periodic
(yearly) cash inflows included estimated increase in income due to change in cropping
pattern, earning through collection of irrigation fee, picnic spot fee etc.

2.3.4.4 Discount rate (i)


The discount rate is that rate, which reflects the required rate of return to cover the
opportunity cost of capital in a riskless situation, the inflation rate and the risk premium.
It was assumed that the above three ingredients of discount rate are fairly reflected in
market rate of interest. Therefore, the existing average interest rate of 12 per cent per

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annum charged by financial institutions in Nepal was taken as the discount rate to do
economic analysis of proposed project.

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3. Result and Discussion
This chapter deals with general information about the project, estimation of incremental
benefit, incremental cost and calculation of discounted measures of investment appraisal
as discussed in methodology.

The capacity of the pond is 150000 m3 (5 ha x 3m) .The estimated command area is 1000
ha. The common cropping pattern of the area rice-wheat-maize and rice- fallow-maize.
The area has better edaphic-climatic conditions and market assess for vegetable farming.
The existing cropping pattern is expected to substitute by rice-vegetable-maize and rice-
vegetable-vegetable after provision of irrigation water in winter season from the water
harvesting pond. In the beginning year of the project 30 per cent of total command area
will be grown with vegetable based cropping pattern. It has been made estimation of
shift in growth rate by 5 per cent per annum. Total number of beneficiary households
under command area are 1875. The source of water to fill Pokhari Tal water harvesting
pond is canal water from Kerunga Khola and rain water collected during summer season.

3.1 Estimation of Incremental cost of the project


Incremental cost of the project included initial capital cost of investment to restructure
the pond and to construct the diversion canal including diversion gate. Yearly O and M
cost included expenditures on amount paid to peon and security gourd, annual cleaning of
the pond, maintenance of pond wall, increasing the cost of cultivation due to change in
cropping pattern and interest cost of initial investment.

It was estimated that average variable cost of production in current cropping pattern of
rice-wheat-maize and rice –fallow-maize is Rs.34557 per hectare per year. The estimated
gross cost of cultivation after project is Rs. 44924 per hectare per year in second year (30
% more than the cost before project). Thus the incremental cost in second year is Rs.
10367. Then after third year onward assumption is made to increase cost of cultivation
resulted due to changed cropping pattern and increased cropping intensity after project by
5 per cent each year up to Tenth year. After Tenth year the cost of crop cultivation will be
constant for economic life of project with the attainment of its full capacity.

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Table 3.1: Estimated incremental cost of the project
S.N. Particulars Amount in Rs.

(I) Initial investment

1. Cash expenses 4500000

2. Labor contribution 1500000

Total of initial investment 6000000

(II) Yearly operation and maintenance cost

3. Salary of accountant 150000

4. Salary of peon 72000

5. Salary of security gourd 100000

5. Maintenance of pond and diversion canal 500000

6. Incremental cost due to change in cropping 3110100


pattern per hectare is Rs.10367 (30 % of total
cropped area will be changed in cropping
pattern and cropping intensity)

7. Interest cost @12 % 720000

Total of yearly O&M cost 4652100

3.2 Estimation of Incremental benefit of the project:


Cash basis accounting was followed in preparation of cash inflow stream also. Receipts
were assigned to the period in which they were earned. Periodic (yearly) cash inflows
were prepared for the 30 years beginning from second year of the project. Periodic
(yearly) cash inflows included estimated increase in income due to change in cropping
pattern, increase cropping intensity, earning through collection of irrigation fee, picnic
spot fee etc. It was estimated that average crop income in current cropping pattern of rice-
wheat-maize and rice–fallow-maize is Rs.53226 per hectare per year. The estimated gross
crop income after project is Rs. 71868 per hectare per year in second year (35 % more
than the income before project due to changed cropping pattern, increased cropping
pattern and productivity). Thus the incremental crop income in second year is Rs. 18642.

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Then after third year onward assumption is made to increase crop income due to project
by 5 per cent each year up to Tenth year. After Tenth year the crop income will be
constant for economic life of project with the attainment of its full capacity.

Table 3.2: Estimated incremental benefit of the project


S.N. Particulars Amount in Rs.

(I) Incremental crop income

1. Estimated Incremental crop income due to 5592600


change in cropping pattern and increased
cropping intensity and productivity per
hectare is Rs. 18642 (25 % is from change in
cropping pattern and 5 % from increase in
cropping intensity and productivity)

(II) Other income

3. Income from irrigation fee (@Rs.500 per 500000


hectare per year)

4. Income from renting out picnic spot (Rs. 500 150000


per group for 300 groups in a year)

Total of yearly income 6242600

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Incremental cash inflow and outflow along with incremental net benefit is shown in
following Table.

Table 3.3: Estimated Cash Inflow and Cash Outflow


Year Initial O&M cost Incremental income Incremental net
investment income
1 6000000 - - -6000000
2 - 4652100 6242600 1490500
3 - 4884705 6554730 1670025
4 - 5117310 6866860 1749550
5 - 5349915 7178990 1829075
6 - 5582520 7491120 1908600
7 - 5815125 9363900 3548775
8 - 6047730 8115380 2067650
9 - 6280335 8427510 2147175
10 - 6512940 8739640 2226700
11-30 - 6745545 9051770 2306225

Table 3.4: Calculation of discounted measure of investment appraisal


(Value in Rs.’000)
Cash Cash Net PV of cash PV of cash PV of net PV of net PV of net
Year outflow inflow benefit outflow inflow benefit benefit (30%) benefit (35%)
600000 0
1 0 -6000000 5358000 0 -5358000 -4614000 -4446000

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465210 624260
2 0 0 1590500 3707724 4975352 1267629 941576 873185
488470 655473
3 5 0 1670025 3477910 4666968 1189058 759861 845033
511731 686686
4 0 0 1749550 3254609 4367323 1112714 612343 526615
534991 717899
5 5 0 1829075 3033402 4070487 1037086 492021 407884
558252 749112
6 0 0 1908600 2830338 3797998 967660 395080 314919
581512 936390
7 5 0 3548775 2628437 4232483 1604046 564255 432951
604773 811538
8 0 0 2067650 2443283 3278614 835331 254321 188156
628033 842751
9 5 0 2147175 2267201 3042331 775130 201834 143861
651294 873964
10 0 0 2226700 2097167 2814164 716997 162549 111335
674554 905177
11 5 0 2306225 1935971 2597858 661887 1291486 85330
674554 905177
12 5 0 2306225 1733605 2326305 592700 99168 62268
674554 905177
13 5 0 2306225 1544730 2072855 528126 76105 46125
674554 905177
14 5 0 2306225 1382837 1855613 472776 57656 34593
674554 905177
15 5 0 2306225 1234435 1656474 422039 46125 25368
674554 905177
16 5 0 2306225 1099524 1475439 375915 34593 18450
674554 905177
17 5 0 2306225 984850 1321558 336709 27675 13837
674554 905177
18 5 0 2306225 876921 1176730 299809 20756 11531
674554 905177
19 5 0 2306225 782483 1050005 267522 16144 6919
674554 905177
20 5 0 2306225 701537 941384 239847 11531 4612
674554 905177
21 5 0 2306225 627336 841815 214479 9225 4612
674554 905177
22 5 0 2306225 559880 751297 191417 6919 2306
674554 905177
23 5 0 2306225 499170 669831 170661 4612 2306

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674554 905177
24 5 0 2306225 445206 597417 152211 4612 2306
674554 905177
25 5 0 2306225 397987 534054 136067 2306 2306
674554 905177
26 5 0 2306225 357514 479744 122230 2306 0
674554 905177
27 5 0 2306225 317041 425433 108393 2306 0
674554 905177
28 5 0 2306225 283313 380174 96861 2306 0
674554 905177
29 5 0 2306225 249585 334915 85330 0 0
674554 905177
30 5 0 2306225 222603 298708 76105 0 0
Total 47334596 57033330 9698734 1485702 -279157

From above table it becomes clear that NPV is Rs.9698734 for the economic life of
project at 12 per cent discount rate. B-C ratio and internal rate of return are 1.20 and
34.20 per cent respectively. As NPV is positive, benefit cost ratio exceeds one and IRR is
greater than discount rate/interest rate the investment in Pokhari Tal Water Harvesting
Pond is economically feasible.

Besides tangible direct benefits accounted above in the generation of benefit-cost stream,
the project is planned to expand the uses of pond for fishery, boating and electricity
generation. The project committee is suffering from the budget limitation to use the pond
for above mentioned diverse purposes and pond lining.

The project has not destroyed any important species of vegetation because the pond area
has previously covered by shrub of banmara (Eupatorium spp.). To protect the canal
boundary and adding beauties to the picnic spot the plantation is going to perform in this
rainy season. At the centre of pond temple of Tal Pokhari Goddess is under construction
to add religious important to this pond and to make it clean.

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4. Summary and conclusion
The study was conducted in Nawalparasi district of Nepal to examine the financial
feasibility of water harvesting pond which have wider scope in the area for agricultural
and non-agricultural purposes. The study was based on group discussion and key
informants survey. The data related to the year 2007-08. Discounted measures of
investment appraisal namely NPV, IRR and B: C ratio was used to accomplish objectives
of the study.

The study revealed that, Benefit-cost ratio, net present worth and internal rate of return
were 1.20, Rs. 9698734 and 34.20 per cent, respectively. As the benefit-cost ratio
exceeds one, NPV is positive, and IRR is greater than discount rate the investment in
Pokhari Tal Water Harvesting Pond is economically feasible. Besides economically, the
project is socially acceptable, environmentally sound, and managerially capable and is
thus feasible from all aspects.

For increasing cropping intensity and area under commercial vegetable crops in the
scenario of climate change, necessary efforts should be made regarding expansion of
irrigation facility. Water harvesting pond is one of the best alternative to irrigate crops in
the seasons of water scarcity. The study has revealed that it is feasible to establish water
harvesting pond at Koilapani, Nawalparasi and this is imperative to establish the similar

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water harvesting pond in other areas of the country to mitigate adverse impacts of climate
change.

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