Professional Documents
Culture Documents
:-=:"
-"
'-
Chapter V
Valuation of Securities
I LeC!rni~g,Goals:
.
.
.'
~.':,Caici.rl<ltionofIntrinsic
Value of a Share
c.
d.
= (I
C2
Cn
+k)1 + (I +k)2
+.. + ~k)n
= 1=1(I
where.
( I)
C.
+ k)l
Po
= Value of the
= Present value
C.
= Expected
Vo
asset
at time
zero.
of the asset
cash
flow
at the end
of period t
Example
= Discount
= Expected
Solution
The value of an asset can he calculated as follows:
n
Vo
I~
1=1
(I + k)1
2,000
1=1 (I + .18)1
Valuation Concept
2.000
2,OO()(PVIFAIK'l.. 7~,,)
1=1 (1.18)1
Bond Valuation
Equity
Valuation:
Approach
C.
Vo(or PO) i
Dividend
Capitalization
VALUATION CONCEPT
A security can be regarded simply as a series of
dividends or interest payments receivahle over a period
of time. l'herefore, value of any securit y can he ucfineu
as the present value of these future cash streams i.e.
Ihe IIltnnsic value 0: an asset is equal to the presenl
value of the benefits associateu with it. Symbolically.
it can be represented as
2.000 x 3.S12
Rs.7.624.
Concepts
of Value
.
.
Valuation
payment
number
n,
o(orPo)
G.:2-in!;
(:oncc'rn V~IIIGis Ihe amount that a company
coulJ realize if it sold its business as an op~rating
one. Its value woulJ always be higher than the
liquidation valuc. the difference accounting for the
usefulness ~f assets and value of intangihles.
Vo
Yo
Po
where,
I(PVIFAkd.
=
=
=
c.;:oupo~_Ra~~_.or
Interest: A bond carries a specific rate
of interest which is also called as the coupon rate.. The
interest rate payable is simply the par value of the bond
XcouDon rate. Interest p,lId on a bond IStax dedUCtible.
"-
(I + k,J)!1
II) + F(PVIFkd.
n)
(2)
interest payable
Maturity
kd
Cost of Capial
Principal
Example 2
on the
repayable
..
1=1 (I + k~J)'
BOND VALUATION
for a certain
of Securities
at the maturity
'period
time.
of the bond.
repayment
1 x 12% = Rs.120
= Rs. 1,000
Vo
Rs.: 20(PYIFAIO%.
J yrsJ
JyrsJ
=
Example
Solution
Annual interest payable for 5 years
= Rs.70
=
=
bOf!d
5'rsJ
Basic
Bond Valuation
Model
lilt.
.t:
-.. ~----
...
/~
Fine ncial Management
Bond
Values
'C
with Semi-annual
Interest
Some
of the honds carries interest payment
semi-annually. As half-yew'ly interest amounts can be
reinvested the value of such bonds would he more than
the value of the bonds with annual imerest payments.
Hence, the bond valuation equation can he modified
as follows:
i.
ii.
iii.
'.10
where.
1/2
(I + ku/2)
=
=
kdl2
2n
V2
semi-annual
~urrent
- 900) + 80
(800
-100 + 80
900
-20
900
urrent
"
".
...
..
....
= -2.22%
'"
Yield
Y" Id
Ie
Coupon Interest
= Cun'cnt
Market
Price
(5)
Solution
Yield to Maturity
1,000
100/2
(l + 0.12/2)12
1=1
Rs.50(PVIFA6'7c.
12 yrsJ
+ 1.000(PVIF6'70, 12yrsJ
Rs.50(8.384)
Rs.419.2
Example
+ 1.000 (0.497)
Measures
(
"'"
to.
,.
..
..
,.
..
..
Po
82
,-
Solution
=L
"\'
10
,,:
+ 49;]
Rs.916.20
Bond-Yield
(YTM)
12
~
""
..
'
A
'"
~
900
Vo
"
"..
,.'"
:.
"
,..
interest payment
...
.'"
=
..(3)
r
\-
Examp!e5
(l + kd/2)2n
Example
I
t=1
+ r
(i f p:lld)
coupon interest)
=
_.
...(4)
purchase price at the beginning Of
the holding period
]
~
The hol ing period can be calculated on a daily,
monthly or annual basis. If the bond price falls by an
amount Ihal cxceeds coupon interest, rate of return
assumes negalive value:;.
Ik
1=1(I
. + '<1)
+-
( I + k<l)
..:
~
.:
.;
III
Valuation of Sacuritia~
<)
~;olution
Rs.850 =
80
+ Rs.I.OOG
(I + ku/
( I + kd/
1=1
= Rs.80
(PYlfAkd%.
YTM
<iyr + Rs.l.ooO
(PYlfkd.
I+(F-P)/n
or I+(F-P)/n
O.4F -; 06P
(F + P)/2
60 + (500 - 43)/7
<)yrsJ '
()0+9.2X5
200+ 261
69.285
461
= .150
150/,.
VALUE THEOREMS)
1.
II.
III.
Yield to maturity
1.
=I
0 01
YO
10%) x
884.72 - 850
2% x 0.356
= 10% +
= 10.71%
0.71
then
where, YTM
I
'F
OAF + 0.6P
= yield
~'r I+(F-P)/n
(F + P)/2
...
..)6)
.
Example
= Par
value
Rs.IOO
Coupon rate
12%
Years to maturity
5 years.
Find out the value of KenStar's bond i I' the
required rate of return is 129c.
If the required rate of return is 1290 (same as the
to maturity
12(PYIFAI2'7c. 5) + IOO(PYIFI2%. 5)
= 12(3.605) + 100(0.567)
value
= 43.26
= current
bond
Par value
of the bond
P
n
of;}
I+(F-P)/n
value
Example 8
i
An Approximation:
As
calculations
are
too
approximation formula can
the approximate YTM on a
34.72
+ 290 x 97.48
= 10% +
YTM =
i.
ii.'
When
+ 56.7
= 99.96 = 100.
the required
rate of return
(kd)
is
to maturity.
83
~
~:
"''='
/'
Financial Managomont
b.
/'/
I(PVIFAkd. n) + F(PYIFkd.n)
12(3.433) + 100(0.519)
41.196 + 51.9
93.1
=
=
iii.
par value.
+ 62.1
.
III.
1<" i.
,
Years to maturity:
7
If Ihe required rate of return is I3%;then the value
of the bond is
= I(PVIFAkd. n) +
= I 10(PVIFAIW.7)
F(PVIFkd.n)
+ I.OOO(PYIFI:\<k.7)
.
. . .",eV':;"A,.:
4
,','
V alui.1oft)3o:nd;.l_~';:~
. ""
'. ' )
." ..' . .",".:.-;'
. ii>" ..~ .,'
! ~~
1V.
i>,".~"",;.
'{I'.::i~~fI!
1O~' O>\'J~!~~tI
. ('
to
.....
";"+"'"
";"':"','$,'''
.
Example
= II O(4.423) + 1,000(0.425)
= 486.53 + 425. 9 I1:53. .
Years to maturity
. .'
'~~::Y'I
.,;';~t~":,:,:,~i~"
:,
i 1%
= 1089.46.
;:~;Years'
to :Matttrit c,;"
'. :."'"
.'.
+ 596
Coupon
6) + J,000(PYIF9%. 6)
110(4.486) + ) ,000(0.596)
= Rs.493.46
= I(PYIFAkd.n) + F(PVIFkd.n)
= 12(PVIFA 10. 5) + lOO(PVIFIO%.5)
= 12(3.791) + 100(0.621)
approaches.
= Rs.IIO(PVIFA9%.
= Rs.
= 107.59.
a.
I,OOO(PVIFn.7yn;.)
+ 1,000(0.447)
447
1000.63
= 45.492
II.
= Rs.I IO(PYlFA9%. 7) +
= Rs.IIO(5.033)
= Rs. 553.63 +
=
=
Bond Value
929.87
940.14
952.7 I
966.48
982.35
1,000.00
Rs.79 1.60.
84
_.~
i
;
,
t
Example 10
w~t~~;at;;:J:r
:"'0'
.,
,
The market value of the bonds when the YTM
was equai to coupon rate was equal to the face
value of the bonds i.e., Rs. I,000. When however
the YTM increased to II %, the marke~ value of
.he bond with shorter maturity period dropped by
only 2.5% to Rs.975 wherei1s the market value of
f
>
.
,
"
11
"
.
\
' , ",
"Bond!e,:
. "'I.'::,
'
,."":',
.
,;\.);~~O.~4:
I;
)il
I,
I
i
!
120 PVIFAI2%.h
+ 1000 PVIF 12%.6
Rs. J,000
Bond XYZ
.i
111.
'.
, i..(~lfY,39.l,'J
"~,'I
v.
':
Change In prlca
eOOd A
of Securities
Valuation
EQUITY VALUATION:
CAPITALIZATION
DIVIDEND
APPROACH
{C,I>Yo(:..~~)
"'-
~-
'II
I,l
I
"\
I
I'!
~
q
'-
Financial Management
2.50
35.00
-+
(I +0.13)
(I +0.13)
2.50
35.00
= -+1.13
1.13
= 2.21 + 31.00
= Rs.33.
vnhw
c.
01
ii.
where,
=
Po
O.
PI
01
-+(I + Ice)
PI
... (8)
L
(1 + Ice)'
1=1
where,
Po
DI
D2
Doo
Ice
=
=
rate of return
DI I +
02 2 + ... +
Dn +
P~
(I + ke)
(I + Ice)
(I + Ice)n (I + Ice)n
n
(7)
(I + ke)
Doo
D(
01
--I
Po- (I+ke)
d.
b.
of the share
L (l +01Ice)! +
1=1
year hence
...(9)
Pn
(l + kn)
year hence
Ice = required rate of return on the
equity share.
Dn+1
Pn
On+'2
-~
.
The current pflce Po
Dt
= (I + Ice)
+~
(I + Ice)
86
2 +
(I + Ice)
000
. ..(10)
(I + Ice)
(1+1ce)-n
Example 12
.
Mercury India Ltd. is expected to declare a dividend Substituting the value of Pn is the above equation (9)
of Rs.2.50 and reach a price of Rs.35.00 a year hence. and simplyfying it we get,
What is the price at which the share would be sold to
to the investors now if the required rate of return is 13 P -~~
... (II)
percent.
0 - .L. (1 + 1ce)1
t=1
Solution
~
Valu .tion ot Securities'
Where
I.
constant dividends
II.
iii.
i.
I.
1=1 (I + ke)t
2.
= Do(l
period
Dn+1
= Kc -
where,
Dn+1
--
dividend
Do
for year
ke
3.
g
= constant compound growth rate
The valuation of the share where dividend increases at
a constant, compound rate becomes
DI
DI(l + g)
D1(1 + g)2
(I + Ice) + (I +1ce)2 + (I +1ce)3 +....
n
10 -- 1:
gn
-(I
Dt
(13)
1
n
+ ke)
..L
' Dn+1
Y-e - gn
..'
= current dividend
.
= d uratlon
per share
.
= Rs.3.00
=5
years
Example 13
Shetkani Solvents Ltd. is expected to grow at the rate
of 6.8% per annum and dividend expected a year hence
is Rs.5.00. If the rate of return is 12%,what is the price
of the share today?
ga
= growth
gn
= normal
Solution
5.00-
- 5.00
Ill.
ke
=Rs.96
I.
Po
+
= (I
DI (1 + ga)
+ Ice) +
'.'
Dn (I + gn)
(I + ke)n+1
(I + 1ce)2
Dn (I + gn)
(l
=
=
D4
Rs.3.00
Rs.3.00
Rs.3.00
Rs.3.00
D5
Rs.3.00 (1.25)5
. 3.00 (1.25)
IS
(I + Ice)n
(1.14)
4
2
+
DI (I + g~n-I
+
D2
D3
DI
(14)
'
(I + kd
growth
calculated
Do
P -~
O-ke-g
be
1~:.Consider
,.
<i
On simplification
to
1=1(i + kd
P
is
gn
which is then discounted' to the present value. The
discounted value therefore is
gi
DI
ihe
= 1:~
...p :,y(12)
Valuation with Constant Growth in Dividends
ii.
'
1=om"
ga
gn
Th~ ~W'-:~)PI;fi'al;On
= expected
DI
= price of
Po
3.00 (1.25)
(1.14)2
5
3.00( i ,;~"
(1.14)3
'
r
3.00(1.25) + 3.00(1.25)
( 1.14)4
( 1.14)5
,
+ ......
+ lce)n+2
f
Rnancial Managoment
2.
Ps
kc - gn
= Ds (I + gn)
kc - gn
= Rs.140
2.
3.
4.
= 140.00 = Rs.72.72
(1.14)5
3.
=
=
Rs.19.94 + Rs.72.72
Rs.92.66
= Rs.92.66.
()
D,
Nogrowthfinn Po = K
. '
R Rs.4.(X)" Rs25
16%
(PI
PIERatio
(PIE).
Supernormal
growthPo
and preferenceshareholders.
c.
Price-Earning
Ratio
Earning ratio.
The expected earning per share is:
10%
6%
Expected PAT
- Preference
dividend
.-kD,
-9
=0.1~.10
Rs.4.00 c Rs.67
Book Value
Rs.40
a.
= kD,
-g
' ='
Price/Earnings ratio.
s. --o:T6 "'
=0.16-0.06
RS.4.00
c.
Normalgrowthfirm Po
Liquidalion value
Po)
0%
b.
b. Liquidation Value
Liquidalionvalue per share is equal to:
Book value
' Dividend
Yield
a.
.
6
Firm with normal growth rate
Firm with super normal growth rate
i
10
The expected earning per share and dividend per share
of each of the above firms are Rs.5.oo & RsA.OO
respectively. The required rate of return from equity
investments is 16%.
Price,
6%
10"".
13.4
88
l
"..
I.
Valuation 01 Securities
..
'E(PIE)
= PV per share
E (EPS)
To establish an appropriate price-earnings ratio for a Substituting the present value per share by the present
given share, to start with, the price-earnings ratio for value formula as per dividend discount model get
the market as a whole and also for the industry will
E(PIE} = -.!L . -L
or D~ (EPS)
have to be considered. Then the PIE ratio applicable
k g E(EPS)
(k - g)
to the particular share under consideration should be
the numerator is nothing but the expected
judged for which the following factors are to be ,where
dividend pay-out ratio.
considered.
I.
Growth rate
2.
Stability of earnings
3.
4.
5.
Quality of management
Dividend.pay-out ratio.
Comparing
Step I
Expected
1.
Tne higher the growth rate, the higher the PIE ratio:' . Compare the stock's actuai PIE with its E(PIE) and
The greater the stability of earnings, the higher the PIE
then consult the investment decision rules below:
a.
ratio; the larger the size of the company, the higher the
. If the E(PIE) exceeds the actual PIE, the stock is
PIE ratio; the higher the dividend pay-out ratio, the
!"
E(PIE) Ratio
b.
.r>'
,
c.
;6i
~,I
l'. ~
.r.
/j.:'.
11
89
"
--~~'.,
II
"
Self-Evaluation
Exercises
Section I
Choose the right answer from the alternatives given.
1.
2.
Current yield is
a.
Measured as the rate of return that wil! be earned on a bond if it is purchased at its current market
price and coupon interest is received
b.
c.
d.
Equal to coupon rate if and only if the bonds' market price is greater than its face value
All of the above
e.
Assuming a constant growth rate in dividends, the intrinsic value of a share can be calculated by the
equation where Dt is dividend received a year hence, k is the rate of return required by the shareholders,
g is the constant growth rate.
a.
Dt
k - g
b.
~
k + g
c.
g + k
Dt
d.
k- g
Dt
e.
3.
4.
Dt +
k + g.
b.
c.
d.
e.
unit.
With respect to the effect of the number of years to maturity on bond values, which of the following is
true?
a.
When the required rate of return is less than the coupon rate, the discount on the bond declines
as maturity approaches.
b.
When the required rate of return is less than the coupon rate. the premium on the bond declines
as maturity approaches.
c.
d.
The shorter the maturity of a bond, the greater its price change in response to a given change in
the required rate of return.
AIl of the above.
e.
~
90
I!IIII
Valuation )1 Securttlos
5.
,-.
a.
J
d.
= years
to maturity.
YTM
= Yield
YTM = I + (F + P)/ n
(F + P) h
YTM
= I + (F
- P)/ n
(F - P) h
YTM = I + (F P) / n
(F + P) h
YTM = I
(F + P) / n
(F
(F P)h
e.
YTM = I
(F
- P) In
- P) / 2
6.
A Rs.l00 par value bond bearing a coupon rate of iO% will mature after 6 years. If the discount rate is
a.
Rs.115.64
b.
Rs.I02.57
c.
Rs.81.04
d.
Rs.80.42
e.
Rs.67.89
7.
The market price of Rs.l00 par vaiue bond carrying a coupon rate of 15 percent and maturing after 5
years is Rs.ll O. Which of the followingis the yieldto matu~tyon this bond?
a.
22.89
b.
13.65
c.
12.38
d.
10.64
il'.
e.
8.
.
,~
. 8.45
The equity stock of Sands Limited is currently selling for Rs.20 per share. The dividend expected next~
year is Rs.2.00. The investors' required'rate of return on this stock is 12 percent. Which of the following'
is the expected growth rate if the constant growth model applies to Sands Limited?
a.
5.75
b.
4.64
c.
3.25
d.
2.00
e.
Section II
1.
the intrinsic
valuerate
of aasbond
5Calculate
years. Take
the discount
15%.with a face value of Rs.lOO,a Coupon rate of 10% maturing after
2.
A Rs.l00 par value bond, maturing after 8 years bears a Couponrate of 14%. What will be the intrinsic
value of the bond the discount rate is 12%? and 14%?
rr.
Rs.IOOpar
valuethe
bond
is currently selling
for Rs.80. It carries a COuponrate of 10% and matures after
54\. years.
Calculate
YTM.
.
;La
91
9:;b '1 ~r
~
'" ,ceo'1,..--
..
4
q
Financial Management
4.
Markct price
= Rs.95
Coupon rate
= 12%
Maturity
YTM
s.
=8
years
=?
Par value
= Rs.lOO
Coupon rate
Maturity
= 14%
years.
= 12%
compounded
the value of the .bond.
~
semi-annually
*
Your income-tax rate is 50 percent and your capital gains tax rate is effectively 30 percent. What is your
post-tax yield to maturity from these bonds?
7.
8.
A company's bonds have a par value of Rs.IOO,mature in 8 years, and carry a coupon rate of14 percent
payable semi-annual!y. If the appropriate discount rate is 16 percent, what price should the bond command
in the market place?
k = 12%
Do = Rs.3
g = 8%
PQ..
P2
9.
/10.
II.
(j))f
(J) 13.
=?
=?
Do = RsA
Po = ?
= 12%
= 16%
Po
= 25
= 8%
x Co. is expected to grow at a rate of 8% for the next 10 years. After that it will grow at a rate of 9%
for the next 5 years. Beyond that it will grow at a rate of 5% forever. If the previous dividend was Rs.3
and the required rate of return is 16%, what should be the current market value of the share?
Previous dividend
RsA
6%
5%
4%
10%
The shares of X Ltd. are selling for Rs.60 per share. With the following data, advise whether the share
is over or under valued, and also whether it should be bought or sold:
Beta
rr
= lA
= 6%
g = 8%
rm = 10%
D = 4
92
....
= 10
Solutions
Section I
I. a
2. a
3. d
4. b
5. c
6. c
7. c
8. d
Section II
I
I
I
I
,
1.
~~ ~
,f
2.
a.
= 12%
Discount rate k
=~ ~+~
1=1(1.12)1
= Rs.14
= Rs.14
= Rs.!
b.
10.
Discount rate k
'I
=~
'I
"i
3.
.If YTM
Rs.80
",'
.~f
= 14%
I=! (1.14)'
(1.l :2)8
100 8
(1.l4)
= Rs.14 x PVIFA(14.8) +
= Rs.14 x 4.64 +.Rs.100
= Rs.lOO.
= k. then
=~+~+
1=1 (l+k)1
(A)
Let k
(A)
lOOs
(l+k)
= Rs.1O xPVIFA(k.5)
Let k
Rs.IOO x PVIF(l4.8)
x 0.35
+ Rs.IOO x PVIF(k,5)
= 15%, then
= Rs.1O x PVIFA(lS.S) + Rs.IOO x, PVIF(l5.5)
= Rs.1O x 3.352 + Rs.100 x 00497
= Rs.83.24.
= 17%, then
= Rs.1O x PVIFA{I7.s) + Rs.IOO x PVIF{I7.S)
= Rs.1O x 3.2 + Rs.IOO x 0.456
= Rs.77.6
(A)
I,I
!
II"
1'
r
we get
93
-~ -,-=c..c-
II
Financial Management
( )
F- P
I
4.
YTM =
+-;f+P
2
SubSliluling
5.
The value of a bond if both the couponrate and requiredrate of returnare compoundedsemi-annually
is
2n
L
1/2
+-
1=1 (1+1:;2)1
(1+1:;2)2n
Substituting. we get
6.
20
7 '"'
100
L
1+
20
1=I (I + 0.06)
(1 + 0.06)
=
=
=
'1'.
Therefore the value of YTM(ka) for Bond-A can be solved from the following equation.
8
Rs.70
=1=1
L
+
(I + ka)1
91
(1 + ka)
. .
~
=
94
II
\
Valu&tion
.---
01 Securities
For kb
= Rs.63.97
(B)
(8)
.,';::
for kb = 15%
= Rs.56.88
7.
Iii
'The price the bond should command in the market place is given by
'
16
7
100
L
+
16
1=1(I + 0.08)1 (I + 0.08)
= Rs.7
= Rs.7
= Rs.90.95
8.
Po
DI
--
Ks-g
Do(1 + g)
ks- g
Substituting
Po
Po
= Rs.81
P2
- 0.12- 0.08 D3
-=Do
(ks - g)
0.04
(I + g)3
(ks- g)
3( 1+ 0.08)3
(0.12-0.08)
~t
!I
!I
= Rs.94A8.
9.
We have
Po
-- D.
ks- g
II
II
- Do(1+g) - 4(1+0.12)
- ks-g -0.16-0.12
= Rs.112
10.
Given DI
ks
r, Po
= RsA
= O.16
= Rs.32
D,
We have Po =ks- g
95
Ii
"
.
Financial Management
=>g
01
=ks-- Po
-
"
..i.
- 0.1v - 32
= 0.035
11.
We have Po
==-DI
k-g
Substituting. we get
Rs.25
= Rs.5(
I + O.OS)
k - 0.08
5
=> k = 25 (I + 0.08) + O.OS
= 0,296
12.
= Do L
= Rs.3
(=:
10
(l + d x PVIF(k,t)
L (l + 0.08)\ x PVIF(16;t)
\=1
= Rs.20.68
b.
The present value of dividend stream for the next 5 years with a growth rate of 9% will be
S
13
= Rs.3
(I + 0.08)
10
\.
= Rs.6.476 x 0.943
= Rs.6.11
c.
The market price of the share at the end of 15th year (PIS) is given by
PIS
!b.L
(ks - g)
Where DI6
10.46
0.16 - 0.05
= Rs.95.1.
= 015 (I + g)
= 3 (1.08)10(1.09)s (l
+ 0.05)
= Rs.IO.46
= Rs.95.1 x 0.108
= Rs.10.27
= 20.68
13.
=A
= 95.1
x PVIF(l6.IS)
+ B + C
PVIF(lO,3)]
(A)
4
~
96
~
~
..
\I
"
1
Valuation of Securities
/""';
= RsA( I + 0.06)3
= RsA.764 [0.717
= RsA.764
= Rs.9.78
x 2.054
(B)
ks- g
= Rs.95.5
Where D7 = D6 (I + g)
= 5.51(1 + 0.04)
= Rs.5.73
. Present value of P6
(C)
14.
= Rs.74.78
= 6%
= 10%
= 1.4
ks
= 0.06
= 0.116
.
Th e market pnce
4(1 + 0.08)
= DoKs(I- +gg) = 0.116
= R s.120
- 0.08
The intrinsic price (or the theoretical market price) of the share is Rs.120 which is more than the current
market price of Rs.60. Hence, the share is undervalued and should be bought.
97