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My current VPIP/PFR stats: UTG: 11/11. MP: 11/11. CO: 22/20. BTN: 30/27. My attempt to
steal blinds percentage: 31. The last five numbers used to be even higher when I was playing
a higher variance style; Im sure many good players can provide numbers higher than these.
Note how sharply the numbers jump from MP to CO, and from CO to BTN. Winning players
generally make most of their money from late position (cutoff and button).
From late position, Ill often raise with anything suited, anything connected, and if conditions
are right, any two cards.
Why Do It?
In order of importance:
1. To steal the blinds:
Theres little reason for me to elaborate much on this; Pokey covered all the details (and
more) in his thread. The gist of it is that stealing blinds = $$$; if you check PokerTracker,
youll see that your PTBB/100 skyrockets when you attempt to steal the blinds. If you want to
steal the blinds 25, 30, 35 percent of the time that youre on the button, you have to be willing
to raise 25, 30, 35 percent of the hands youre dealt from this position (actually, the
percentages are even higher, because PT only registers a blind steal attempt if there are no
limpers to you). If you want to raise 30 percent of your hands from the button, youre gonna
have to raise some absolute junk.
2. Position makes it profitable to play many more hands:
If, in theory, its profitable to play X% of hands UTG at a 6max game, then it will be
profitable to play X+Y% (Y>0) of the hands youre dealt on the button. Position is a HUGE
advantage; obviously, this is not a new concept for SSNL.
3. Table image/metagame (this is less important than the above two reasons, but still worthy
of a mention in my opinion):
When weak players see you show down 75o after raising preflop from the button, theyll
think youre a fish and give you action the next time you raise aces UTG. Stronger players
might realize youre positionally aware, but A) sometimes youll get aces on the button, B) if
they suspect youre playing a bunch of junk from late position and decide to tangle with you
without hands, guess what? In general, neither of you will have hands, and youll have
position after the flop comes, and C) at SSNL, strong players are MUCH less common than
weak players.
When To Do It?
1. Use PT stats:
If youre on the button, use the statistics Folds BB to steal and Folds SB to steal to
evaluate the preflop tendencies of the players in the blinds. It is notable that you can only get
these statistics in your hud if you have Poker Ace Hud. This is one of many reasons to
upgrade if youre using GameTime Plus, but thats an issue that probably deserves its own
thread. In general, the more these players are relinquishing their blinds, the better, but this
doesnt necessarily mean I wont steal if I expect to be called. If, say, Im on the button, the
SB is a nit who folds his blind to steals every time, and the bb is a 65/1/1 fish who A) rarely
folds his blind and B) rarely folds postflop, Ill raise to isolate the fish with almost any two
cards.
If youre in the CO, youll still want to glance at the percentage of time the blinds fold to
steals, but youll also want to look at the percentage of time the button calls a preflop raise. In
the past, Ive been guilty of not paying enough attention to this statistic; if the player on the
button is constantly calling raises preflop and has a reasonable postflop game, it makes sense
to cut down on the junk youre playing from the CO.
2. Use non-statistical reads:
Maybe youre on the button, and the players in the blinds tend to defend their blinds by
calling preflop, but tend to shut down if they miss postflop. In a case like this, its profitable
to raise (and continuation bet, of course) with any two cards. Maybe effective stats are deep,
and neither of the tags in the blinds likes to fold to steals, but both of them have a tendency to
overvalue top pair, overpairs, etc. Ill be much more likely to raise with junk in a spot like this
than with 100bb stacks against players in the blinds whom I respect. I could spend time
coming up with more examples; the bottom line is that its not difficult to find excuses to
play more hands if youre a thinking player and will have position throughout the hand.
How To Play With Your Junk After The Flop
WARNING: NOT EVEN CLOSE TO SAFE FOR WORK
But seriously, when I came up with the idea for this post, I intended for this section to be the
meat of it. Playing junk from late position is easy when you pop it up preflop, everyone folds,
and you get the blinds. But sometimes youll get a caller or two. What follows is a list of the
situations in which youll find yourself when you raise from late position with a not-so-great
hand and get called, and fabricated hands designed to illustrate the written principles. For
simplification, Ill assume that theres one villain per hand, that the villain wont 3bet preflop,
that he wont donkbet the flop, and that stacks are always 100 BBs. This is obviously
unrealistic, but this article is theoretical in nature. Note that I ordered the three categories in
this list in a way that I think proceeds from easiest to hardest to play, and also in a way that I
think proceeds from least interesting to most interesting:
1. You hit the flop hard (two pair, trips, set, straight, flush, boat, quads, royal flush, big
draw):
You lucked out with your junk, and its time to get the villains monies. Slowplaying can be a
reasonable option once in a while when A) you have the board crippled and your hand is
beastly enough to let the villain catch up without having to worry about being outdrawn, or B)
the villain is a thinking player and you want to throw him a curveball for shanias sake. But in
general, you flopped huge and want to get some money in the pot. Poker at its core is about
playing big pots with big hands. You have a big hand, so start building the pot. Bet, bet, bet is
usually the play here. If a scare card hits, youll want to slow down sometimes; this is readdependent, of course.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200
Preflop: 5 4 ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
Everyone folded to you. You dont have to do it every time, but this is a good spot to try to
pick up the blinds.
Flop: 5 A 4 ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13
One caller. Thats about the best flop you can ask for. The board has two diamonds, and I
didnt provide a read on the villain, so theres no reason to slowplay. I like a bet of close to
the pot because the board is drawy.
Turn: J ($41, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB calls $35
Same logic as above, really. Our hand is vulnerable, but at this point its almost always the
best hand, so bombs away.
River: 6 ($111, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $78, BB folds
Bet size is preference. Since theres no need to protect anymore, its reasonable to make a
smaller bet. I have shoved in these spots before, though.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200
Preflop: 8 6 ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
a good player will generally raise a wet flop like this with a big hand, and if a good player
doesnt have a big hand, he wont call a turn bet.
Sidenote -- its important at this point to clarify what I meant above when I used the phrase
big draw. Everyone knows what the terms two pair, trips, set, straight, flush, boat, quads,
and royal flush mean, but the phrase big draw is somewhat ambiguous. An OESFD will
always be a big draw, but how about an open-ended straight draw, a flush draw, a gutshot and
two overcards, etc.? A big draw, for the purpose of this article, is just a draw that youre
willing to felt on the flop. This is heavily dependent on reads and flow, of course; its more of
a feel thing than a science.
Turn: Q ($41, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.
Our read indicates that checking is probably better than betting in this spot. Were not
confident that the villain will fold to a bet, and our hand no longer has an equity advantage
over a pair. Betting is good because it disguises your hand, but the villain is only thinking on
one level and will probably pay off a river bet if you hit anyway. Checking does carry the
disadvantage of making it impossible to stack the villain if we hit on the river, but rarely in
poker are there flawless plays.
River: K ($41, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $30, BB calls $30
Time to value bet.
Read: The villain in the following hand is very aggressive postflop and likes to raise your
continuation bets with a wide variety of hands. Hes a solid player, though, and has respect for
your play.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200
Preflop: 7 9 ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
See above.
Flop: 6 Q 8 ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $40, Hero shoves, BB folds
Im calling this a big draw and including it in the first category of hands because against
this villain, youre willing to reraise all in with it after he check-raises your continuation bet.
You have at least eight outs no matter what the villain is holding and against a hand like AQ,
youre less than a 2:1 dog. The villains range is very wide, and hell fold often enough to the
shove for it to be a good play.
2. You missed the flop entirely (no pair, very little drawing potential):
Your hand is more or less hopeless at this point, and the only way to win the pot is to bet. The
play in this spot is generally to make a pure bluff on the flop, and to continue at times on the
turn (and I dont make a habit of three-barreling, but sometimes its +EV with the right board
and the right read). Against the 65/1/1 type I described at the beginning of the post, the best
play is often just passing up on a continuation bet and shutting down. It might feel strange to
raise preflop with a garbage hand and then not even bet the flop, but if hes not folding and
you have a minute chance of improving to a real hand, putting more money in the pot might
as well be burning it.
Read: The villain in the following hand is a straightforward tag, say 17/13/3.5 or so. He plays
solid, but youve played a ton of hands with him and never seen him make a move or a
tricky play postflop.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200
Preflop: 7 6 ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
Im raising suited connectors in this spot almost every time.
Flop: K Q 3 ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13
Bad flop. The club provides our hand with a runner flush draw, but thats hardly a good draw.
You want to bet based on the texture of the flop and not on the strength of your hand, so you
make the same bet as you made with the monster hand on the drawy flop above. He calls,
which more or less means he has a king, a queen, JT, or diamonds.
Turn: 2 ($41, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $35, BB folds
The turn is a brick, which is a good thing in this spot. Betting here is a solid option, because
A) the villain is straightforward enough that we can assign him a fairly tight range, and B)
most of his range will fold to a turn bet. The villain most likely wont continue to draw
against us with these pot odds, and theres a good chance hell fold a queen, maybe even the
weaker kings in his range. Not a play Id make every time, but this is a thinking players turn
bet.
Read: The villain in the following hand has folded to 7 of 11 continuation bets thus far, but
aside from that seems like a donk and Poker Ace Hud shows that he has gone to showdown
28 percent of the time, which is fairly high.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200
Preflop: J 8 ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
Blinds, position, suited cards, implied odds, etc. You know the big blind has a tendency to
pay off. Raising will steal the blinds pretty often, and if you flop big, you might get rewarded
with a stack.
Flop: A Q 5 ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB calls $11
Hes folded more than half the time to continuation bets, so theoretically even a full pot cbet
should show a profit. You bet a little over two thirds of the pot because the flop is pretty dry
and again, consistency is a good thing.
Turn: 5 ($37, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
The continuation bet didnt work, the runner flush draw we flopped was eliminated by the
turn card, and our read is that this villain likes to go to showdown. We still dont have a pair,
so we cant semibluff either. Now is a good time to give up.
River: 2 ($37, 2 players)
BB bets $24, Hero folds
J-high is good almost never in this spot, even against this villain, and raising is just asking for
it. As Taylor Caby would say, just pitch the hand.
Read: The villain in the following hand is the 65/1/1 megafish described earlier. He has
folded to continuation bets only two times out of 15 and gone to showdown 53 percent of the
hands hes played.
chance to improve to trips or two pair. A check behind with a mediocre draw like a gutshot
and overcards is somewhat tricky, but its a reasonable option at times because it guarantees
that you wont get raised off a hand that has something like six outs, ten outs, etc.
B) Bet. Bets in spots like these are semibluffs. If you flop middle pair and elect to
continuation bet, youre generally not betting for value. Your goal is to take down the pot, but
if that doesnt occur, at least youve inflated the pot for your five outer (two outs to trips,
three outs to two pair). If you have a draw that youre planning to fold to a raise on the flop,
you are betting and hoping the villain folds, but with the knowledge that your hand has some
outs if you get called.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200
Preflop: J 4 ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
This hand is some serious junk, but it is reasonable to open with it once in a while from the
button.
Flop: J 3 Q ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB calls $13
You flop middle pair and elect to semibluff with it. It doesnt make much sense to bet your
jack for value at this point, because its going to be pretty tough to bet all three streets with
this hand unimproved and see a showdown. You bet $13 because the board is drawy.
Unfortunately, the villain calls. You might have the best hand at this point, but that doesnt
mean the continuation bet was for value.
Turn: 3 ($41, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
You decide not to continue the semibluff this time. If the villain can read hands, hell know
that you dont have a good made hand now, but in this hand the villain is unknown. If the
river bricks and the villain makes a reasonable bet, you have little choice but to fold.
River: Q ($41, 2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero folds
The villain could be betting missed spades or air, but its probably more likely that he has a
queen or a better jack than we have. Ill try to pick villains off in these spots in the right
situation, but the standard play after semibluffing, checking through a blank turn, and missing
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200
Preflop: 4 5 ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
Against a BB like this, you can probably raise profitably and then continuation bet with any
two cards. This analysis ignores the SB, of course, but for the purpose of this article, the SB
doesnt exist.
Flop: 6 7 2 ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $13, BB folds
The flop is the same as in the last hand, but the villain is different. Whereas a check-raise
loomed against the last villain and implied odds were plentiful if you checked behind, this
villain will probably fold to a continuation bet (and a hand like KT or QJ is about even money
against our draw at this point), and its tough to say how much money well make if we check
behind and make our hand. If the villain makes a big raise, we probably wont continue, but
thats an unlikely scenario. Against this villain, the play is to continuation bet and try to take
the pot down.
Read: Villain is a 44/18/5 lagfish who loves to attack weakness. He folds fairly often to shows
of strength -- in fact, he has folded to five of seven continuation bets so far -- but you have
seen him fire three barrels with air when he thinks he can steal pots.
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter
Stack Sizes
SB: $Whatever
BB: $200
UTG: $Not
MP: $Very
CO: $Relevant
Hero (BTN): $200
Preflop: J 9 ($3, 6 players)
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB calls $5
From the button, this hand is an auto-raise for me.
Flop: J
($15, 2 players)