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Daily
November 7, 2014

Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter

DAILYCompiled
EXCLUSIVE
ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
& Edited by Riceplus Magazine

November 07, 2014

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News Headlines

Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

FAO Estimates 2014-15 Global Rice
Production to Decline Slightly to 496.3
Million Tons
FAO Forecasts Madagascar to Import
250,000 Tons of Rice in MY 2014-15,
Down 54% from Last Year
FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines
1% m/m to 235 Points in October 2014
Oryza Global Weekly Weather Outlook
Global Rice Quotes
India Invites Tenders to Import Another
20,000 Tons of Rice
Indonesia Targets Rice Self-Sufficiency
by 2016 Nov 06, 2014
Record Rice Imports and High Prices
Estimated for Sri Lanka in 2014
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough
Rice Futures Remain under Pressure from
Strong US Dollar
Thai Government Considers New OnFarm Pledging Program for 2014-15 Main
Crop Fragrant and Glutinous Rice

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Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

Nov 06, 2014

Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $410 - $420 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to
Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $430 - $440 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $410 $420 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $395 - $405 per
ton.
25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $45 per ton discount to
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $395 - $405 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $370
- $380, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $410 - $420 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at
around $390 - $400 per ton, about $35 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at
around $425 - $435 per ton.
100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, on par with Vietnam
100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at
around $315 - $325 per ton, about $5 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at
around $320 - $330 per ton.
Tags: Vietnam rice prices, India rice prices, pakistan rice prices, Thailand rice prices

FAO Estimates 2014-15 Global Rice

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Production to Decline Slightly to 496.3

Million Tons
Nov 06, 2014

The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization

(FAO) has estimated 2014-15 global rice
production to decline marginally to around
496.3 million tons from last year's 498.1
million tons, and almost unchanged from its
previous estimate of 496.4 million tons. The
decline in world's rice production is attributed
to decline in production in many African and
Asian countries and is the first one after 2009,
according to the FAO.
The FAO estimates 2014-15 global rice utilization at around 500.2 million tons, up about 2%
from around 491.9 million tons in 2013-14 and almost unchanged from its previous estimate of
500.3 million tons due to likely increase in consumption in many countries.
It estimates global rice trade in 2014-15 at around 40 million tons, slightly up from around 39.7
million tons last year and unchanged from its previous estimate of 40 million tons. The increase
is due to strong imports by Near East and West African countries.
The FAO estimates 2014-15 global ending stocks at around 177.7 million tons, down about 2%
from around 181.2 million tons last year and unchanged from its previous estimate. The decline
is mainly due to fall in rice stocks in five major rice exporting countries.
Tags: global rice production, Global rice trade, Global rice utilization, Global rice stocks

FAO Forecasts Madagascar to Import

250,000 Tons of Rice in MY 2014-15, Down
54% from Last Year
Nov 06, 2014

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The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has forecasted Madagascar's MY 2014-15
(April - March) at around 250,000 tons, down about 55% from an estimated 540,000 tons in MY
2013-14. The government imported substantially high amount of rice in 2013-14 due to
significant fall in production in 2013.
It forecasts Madagascar 2014 rice production at around 4 million tons, up about 10% from
around 3.6 million tons produced last year due to well distributed rains in the 2013-14 cropping
season. The government's and FAO's joint initiation of anti-locust campaign, which began in
November 2013, provided fruitful results. A Rice area of around 1.2 million hectares was treated
and the campaign largely prevented the spread of locust plague thereby limiting large crop
losses.
Average rice prices of local rice and imported rice started increasing after they declined for four
consecutive months from March 2014. Generally prices in 2014 have been lower than those in
2013 due to improved supplies.
Average prices of local rice in October 2014 stood at around 1.258 million Malagasy Ariary
(around $470), up about 2% from around 1.232 million Malagasy Ariary (around $470) in
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September 2014 and down about 9% from around 1.379 million Malagasy Ariary (around $630)
in October 2013. Average prices of imported rice in October 2014 stood at around 1.28 million
Malagasy Ariary (around $470), up about 2% from around 1.254 million Malagasy Ariary
(around $480) in September 2014 and down about 5% from around 1.353 million Malagasy
Ariary (around $620) in October 2013.
Tags: Madagascar rice imports, Madagascar rice production, Madagascar rice prices

FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines 1%

m/m to 235 Points in October 2014
Nov 06, 2014

The FAO All Rice

Price Index declined
to around 235 points
in October 2014,
down about 1.2%
from around 238
points in September
2014 due to decline in
all
sub-indices
Higher and Lower
Quality Indica subindices as well as
Japonica
and
Aromatic sub-indices.
Higher Quality Indica
sub-index declined by
about 4 points to
around 203 points in
October 2014, from
around 207 points last month. Lower Quality Indica sub-index declined by about 4 points to
around 204 points this month from around 208 points last month. Japonica sub-index declined by
about 4 points to around 260 points in October 2014 from around 262 points last month.
Aromatic sub-index also declined by about 4 points to around 268 points from last month's 272
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points.
In January - October 2014, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 236 points, slightly up from
around 235 points durign the same period in 2013. Sub index for higher quality Indica rice prices
declined about 5.4% y/y, sub index for lower quality Indica prices declined about 12% y/y.
Aromatic rice price sub index declined about 0.8% y/y. However, sub index for Japonica rice
prices increased about 13% y/y.
According to the FAO, rice export prices in the U.S., Uruguay and Asian origins such as
Thailand, Vietnam, India and Pakistan declined in October 2014 due to increasing supplies from
harvests and influenced by low prices in other markets. However, rice export prices of Thai A1
super varieties strengthened.
Thai 100% broken prices declined about 1.6% m/m to around $437 per ton; Thai 5% broken
prices declined about 1% m/m to around $428 per ton; Thai parboiled prices declined about
1.4% m/m to around $430 per ton; Thai 25% broken prices declined slightly m/m to around $409
per ton and Thai fragrant prices declined about 1% m/m to around $1,167 per ton. Thai A1 Super
increased about 2.6% m/m to around $345 per ton.
Export prices of Pakistan 25% broken rice declined by about 3.8% m/m to around $345 per ton,
while those in Vietnam and India declined about 1.2% m/m and 3.4% m/m to around $403 per
ton and $371 per ton respectively.
Rice export prices in Uruguay and the U.S. declined slightly m/m and 1.9% m/m to around $597
per ton and $1,000 per ton respectively.
Tags: FAO, Aromatic sub-index, Higher quality Indica sub-index, Lower quality Indica sub-index, Japonica
rice index

Oryza Global Weekly Weather Outlook

Nov 06, 2014

Some rain is expected South of the Yangtze River in China on Thursday and Friday.
Isolated heavy rain are expected over the North and the Central of Thailand on Thursday and
Friday. Thereafter, more rain is expected across South Thailand from Saturday to Monday.
Scattered showers are expected across most of Vietnam through Friday.
Weather is expected to remain dry in India.
In Pakistan, widespread rain is expected in Islamabad, Rawalpindi division, Malakand, Hazara,
Peshawar, Kohat, Mardan divisions, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, while alsoscattered places in
Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad and Sargodha divisions.
Light rain is likely to occur at one or two places over Chittagong division and weather may
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remain mainly dry with temporary partly cloudy sky elsewhere in Bangladesh.
In Indonesia, scattered showers are expected across northern Sumatra and much of Borneo
through Friday.
Tags: weather, Rice, Asia, global

Global Rice Quotes

November 6th, 2014
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 425-435
Vietnam 5% broken
430-440
India 5% broken
410-420
Pakistan 5% broken
395-405
Cambodia 5% broken 465-475
U.S. 4% broken
540-550
Uruguay 5% broken
595-605
Argentina 5% broken 595-605
Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken NQ

Vietnam 25% broken 395-405

Pakistan 25% broken 350-360
Cambodia 25% broken NQ

India 25% broken

370-380
U.S. 15% broken
510-520

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 410-420

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd

425-435
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400

U.S. parboiled 4% broken

580-590

Brazil parboiled 5% broken

585-595

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%
865-875
Vietnam Jasmine
570-580

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken

NQ

Cambodia Phka Malis 855-865

Brokens
Thailand A1 Super
330-340

Vietnam 100% broken 330-340

Pakistan 100% broken stxd

320-330
Cambodia A1 Super
NQ

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India 100% Broken stxd

Egypt medium grain brokens
U.S. pet food 445-455
Brazil half grain
NQ

315-325
NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

India Invites Tenders to Import Another

20,000 Tons of Rice
Nov 06, 2014

India's state-run trader Metals and Minerals Trading Corporation (MMTC) has floated a tender
inviting bids from overseas sellers for importing 20,000 tons of 25% broken white rice for
delivery at in the North-Eastern state of Mizoram, according to a bid notice posted on its website.
The MMTC is seeking delivery of rice in two tranches of 10,000 tons each between December
20, 2014 - February 28, 2015. The first tranche is expected to be delivered between December
20, 2014 and January 25, 2014; and the second tranche is expected to be delivered between
February 1, 2014 and February 28, 2014.
According to the bid notice, minimum quantity to be offered is 2,500 tons and the bidders are
required to submit their bids in euro denomination and specify country of origin for the quantity
to be supplied. Last date for submitting bids is November 26, 2014.
Yesterday, the State Trading Corporation (STCI) floated a tender to import 20,000 tons of rice to
be delivered in India's North-Eastern state of Manipur.
Both STCI and MMTC invited tenders to import 10,000 tons each on September 9, 2014. They
received one bid each but were rejected due to high prices.
India, the world's second largest rice producer and exporter, is importing rice, despite having
buffer stocks, due to the transportation disruptions to be caused by proposed railway conversion
works on the 220-kilometer Lumding (Assam)-Badarpur-Agartala (Tripura) line. The line is said
to connect the North-Eastern States Manipur and Mizoram with the rest of the country.
Indias rice stocks in the central pool as of October 1, 2014 stood at around 18.24 million tons
(including a milled equivalent of about 6.65 million tons of paddy), and are about 55% more than
the required buffer and strategic reserve norms of around 11.8 million tons for this time of the
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year, according to the FCI.

Tags: India rice imports, India rice tenders, Food Corporation of India (FCI)

Indonesia Targets Rice Self-Sufficiency by

2016
Nov 06, 2014

Indonesia's new President is targeting selfsufficiency in rice production and end rice
imports within the next two years, according to
local sources.The President, who took charge
on October 20, 2014, inaugurated the
rehabilitation of the irrigation facility in
Watang Sidenreng district. On the occasion, he
told local sources that in order to achieve the
rice self-sufficiency target, his government is
planning to enhance water supplies to the rice
fields by building dams and irrigation facilities
in the country. He noted that they are planning to develop/build about 25 to 30 dams across the
country, adding that about 11 dams are planned for 2015 alone. Around Rp 8.2 trillion (around
$656 million) has been allocated in next year's budget towards the development of 11 dams and
the Public Works and Public Housing Ministry will oversee the development projects, he said.
The President also stated that the government will ensure smooth supplies of seedlings and
fertilizers to rice farmers. He noted that fuel subsidies would be provided to fertilizer suppliers.
These are the peoples needs and will be made a priority," he said.
Most of the self-sufficiency targets introduced by the previous government have been left
unfilled due to corruption and other scandals at various levels of value chain, according to local
sources.
The country's Central Statistics Agency (BPS) estimates 2014 paddy rice production at around
70.61 million tons, down about 0.94% from an estimated 71.28 million tons in the previous year.
Indonesia's state logistics agency Bulog has signed contracts with Thailand and Vietnam to
import around 425,000 tons of rice this year.
USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36 million tons of rice, basis milled, and import
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around 1.4 million tons of rice in MY 2013-14 (January 2014 - December 2014, more than
double an estimated 650,000 tons imported in 2013. Consumption in 2014 is expected to increase
by 1% to around 38.65 million tons from 38.13 million tons in 2013.
Tags: Indonesia rice production, Indonesia rice imports, Indonesia rice self-sufficiency

Record Rice Imports and High Prices

Estimated for Sri Lanka in 2014
Nov 06, 2014

The
UN's
Food
and
Agricultural
Organization
(FAO) has forecasted Sri
Lanka's 2014 rice imports to
increase about nine-fold to
around 200,000 tons from
around 22,900 tons in 2013 as
the country's paddy rice
production is expected to be
much lower than expected due
to prolonged dry weather
conditions.
The FAO has forecasted Sri
Lanka's
total
paddy
production to decline to
around 3.6 million tons in 2014 (around 2.4 million tons, basis milled), down about 22% from
around 4.6 million tons (around 3.1 million tons, basis milled) produced in 2013.
In its country brief on Sri Lanka, the FAO has estimated the paddy output from the 2014 Yala
crop (April - September 2014) at around 1.2 million tons, down about 30% from around 1.56
million tons produced last year. The decline is attributed to a contraction in area planted by about
29% due to prolonged period of dry weather at the start of the cropping season. Harvesting of the
Yala rice crop has been completed in September. Output from the 2013-14 main Maha rice crop
(September 2013 - April 2014) is estimated at around 2.4 million tons, down about 17% from

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around 2.9 million tons (around 1.97 million tons, basis milled) produced last year.
Domestic rice prices have been increasing since May this year and reached record highs in
October this year. Average retail price of white rice reached around LKR 78,920 (around $600)
per ton in October 2014, slightly up from around LKR 78,560(around $560) per ton in
September 2014, and up about 33% from around LKR 59,380 (around $470) per ton in October
2013.
USDA estimates Sri Lanka to produce around 2.45 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 3.6
million tons, basis paddy) and import around 120,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October 2014 September 2015).
Tags: Sri Lanka rice production, Sri Lanka rice imports

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Remain under Pressure from
Strong US Dollar
Nov 06, 2014

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery are currently noted 5.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per
ton) lower at $12.360 per cwt (about $272 per ton) during early morning floor trading in
Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mixed: soybeans are currently seen unchanged, wheat
is listed about 0.7% lower and corn is noted about 0.6% lower.
U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday, extending records as investors welcomed upbeat
economic reports in the U.S. and assurances from European Central Bank President Mario
Draghi that the ECB would adopt further easing measures, if needed. Wall Street embraced
economic reports that had the government's tally of Americans filing for jobless benefits falling
by 10,000 to 278,000 last week, better than the expected 285,000. Another report had
productivity rising more than estimated in the third quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
opened higher, as did the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Gold is currently trading about 0.2% lower,
crude oil is seen trading about 1.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4%
higher at 9:00am Chicago time.
Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market, chicago rough rice futures

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November 7, 2014

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Thai Government Considers New On-Farm

Pledging Program for 2014-15 Main Crop
Fragrant and Glutinous Rice
Nov 06, 2014

The Rice Policy and

Management Committee,
headed by the Thai Prime
Minister, is considering a
new on-farm pledging
program
for
2014-15
(October 2014 - September
2015) paddy main-crop
fragrant and glutinous rice
to limit downward pressure
on prices during the
harvest time, according to
USDA Post.
According to the Post, the government is proposing the new pledging program as it was
unsuccessful in drawing millers to buy paddy from farmers at above-market prices. Last month it
had planned to delay sales of about 2 million tons from the upcoming harvest to boost rice prices.
It also asked millers to buy paddy from farmers at above-market prices with an intention to
increase prices of unmilled white rice to around 8,500 baht (around $263) per ton, prices of
unmilled jasmine rice to around 16,000 baht (around $495) per ton, and prices of glutinous rice
to around 13,000 baht (around $401) per ton during the main crop harvest season.
The government is now planning to buy fragrant paddy rice at about 14,4500 baht (around $450)
per ton, which is about 10% below ruling market prices; and glutinous paddy rice at about
11,700 baht (around $365) per ton, which is about 5-10% higher than the ruling market prices
from farmers. However, farmers are allowed to pledge only 20 tons of paddy at a maximum
value of around 300,000 baht (around $9,375 ton). Also, farmers should maintain requisite
moisture levels and store paddy rice in their warehouses for at least 30 days. They can redeem
their paddy within 120 days without interest charge and will receive about 1,000 baht (around

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$31) per ton as storage cost.

The Post reports that the government is targeting around 2 million tons of fragrant and glutinous
rice and the program will be administered by the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural
Cooperatives (BAAC). However, some critics say farmers producing white rice may be unhappy
with the government's move.
Based on continued sales of government stocks for export and expected 4th quarter shipments of
about 970,000 metric tons per month, USDA Post estimates Thailand to export around 10.5
million tons of rice in MY 2013-14. The table below shows the results of the three auctions
conducted by the Thai government since August 7, 2014.
With expectation of continued sales, strong exports and competitive prices driven by new crop
sales and export subsidized linked to government held stocks, USDA Post forecasts Thai rice
exports in MY 2014-15 at around 11 million tons. However, concerns about the quality of the
government stocks is increasing. Last week, based on the stock inspection report, the Thai Prime
Minister noted that the country currently has 18 million tons of rice and of that only 10% are of
standard quality, about 70% were below-standard and about 20% were unfit for human
consumption.
The Post estimates Thailand 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 30.5 million tons (around
20.8 million tons, basis milled) from around 11.39 million hectares of rice area.
Tags: Thai rice stocks, Thai rice pledging program, USDA, Thai rice exports, Thai rice production

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