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 Fertility Change

Fertility Trends and

Differentials
TFR
6.5 to 7.5 (11)
Module 5a
5.9 to 6.4 (12)
5.5 to 5.8 (7)
4.3 to 5.4 (13)
2 to 4.2 (11)
 Learning Objectives
Upon completion of this module, the student will
be able to

Š Describe the trends and differentials in

fertility over time and place

Š Trends and differentials in age specific fertility

rates over time and place

3
 The Fertility Transition
Definition

Š Generally defined as having started in a

country when there is at least 10%
decline in fertility which begins an
irreversible trend downwards
Š Said to be “completed” when
replacement level fertility levels are
achieved

4
 Fertility Transition
Current Status

Š Began in most industrialized countries in the

late 19th century and competed by early/mid
20th century
Š Began in most of Asia and Latin America after
World War II and completed or nearing
completing in some (e.g., Brazil, Thailand,
China)
Š Just beginning in most sub-Saharan African
countries

5
 Total Fertility Rates by Region of the
Developing World,1950-55 to 1985-90

Source: Fig1, Bongaarts and Watkins,1996 6

 Decline in Fertility by World
Region,1950-55 to 1990-95
Latin America 3
&Carribean 5.9

2 1990-95
North America 3.8
1950-55
1.6
Europe 2.6

2.9
Asia 5.9

5.9
SSA 6.6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Total Fertility Rate

Data Source: UN, World Population Prospects: The 1998
revision
7
 Africa – Regional Map
Northern

Western

Eastern

Middle

Southern

Map by: Adam78 via Wikimedia Commons. Some rights reserved.

8
 Decline in Fertility in Africa by
Region
6
West Africa 6.4
3.7
Southern Africa 6.5
1990-95
4
North Africa 6.8 1950-55
6.5
Middle Africa
5.9
6.2
East Africa 6.9
5.9
SSA 6.5

0 2 4 6 8
Total Fertility Rate
Data Source: UN, World Population Prospects: The 1998 revision 9
Total Fertility Rates in Africa,
1999

TFR
6.5 to 7.5 (11) Source: World
5.9 to 6.4 (12) Population Data
5.5 to 5.8 (7) Sheet, 1999,
4.3 to 5.4 (13)
PRB
2 to 4.2 (11)
10
 Trends in Age Specific Fertility
Across Regions
Š During fertility transition, the proportion of
decline in fertility may not be same across
age groups
Š With delay in age at marriage over time
with no concomitant increase in premarital
fertility, the fertility in age group 15-19 will
decline over time as observed in East Asia,
esp. in Japan

11
 Trends in Age Specific
Fertility Rates Across Regions
Š However, in some regions e.g. in Southern Africa,
an increase in fertility in 15-19 year age group is
observed over time.
Š Further, the fertility patterns may shift up with
delay in initiation of child-bearing with rising level
of women’s education and labor force
participation
Š Fertility may decline disproportionately in higher
age groups with rise in use of contraception in
these age groups

12
Trends in
ASFR over
time across
different
regions

Source: UN,
World Fertility
Patterns,1997

13
 Summary Slide
Š This concludes this session, the key
concepts introduced in this session include:
– Fertility transition
– The status of fertility transition in
different countries around the world
– The trends and differentials in fertility
across different regions of the world
and among different countries in SSA

14
 Fertility Change

Determinants of Fertility Trends

and Differentials
TFR
6.5
5.9
Module 5b
to
to
7.5
6.4
(11)
(12)
5.5 to 5.8 (7)
4.3 to 5.4 (13)
2 to 4.2 (11)
 Learning Objectives
Upon completion of this module, the student will
be able to :

Š Describe the proximate and underlying

determinants of fertility responsible for
observed trends in fertility

16
A Model of Fertility Change

Underlying Determinants
(Socio-economic, cultural and other factors)

Proximate Determinants
(Biosocial mechanisms)

Fertility
(Biological processes)
17
Fertility: Biological Processes

18
 Fertility – Biosocial
(Proximate) Determinants

Š Davis and Blake (1956) introduced

the concept of “proximate” or
biosocial determinants – that is,
behavioral factors that directly
affect the biological processes
controlling fertility.

continued
19
 Fertility – Biosocial
(Proximate) Determinants

Š Bongaarts (1982) provided an analytical

model for measuring in surveys the most
important proximate determinants that
affect fertility.

20
Bongaart’s Proximate Determinants
1. *Proportion of women in a sexual
union (married)
2. *Use of contraception
3. *Post-partum amenorrhea (due to
breastfeeding)
4. *Induced abortion
5. Frequency of intercourse
6. Spontaneous fetal losses
7. Sterility (due to disease)
* Major determinants of variability in
fertility in most populations. 21
 The four most important proximate
determinants - based on sensitivity of
fertility levels to changes in these, and
their variability over time and place

Š Proportion of women in sexual unions

Š The level of contraceptive use
Š Duration of postpartum infecundability
Š The level of induced abortion
These 4 factors substantially account for
the trends and differentials seen in
fertility over time or place

22
 The remaining three proximate
determinants

Š The level of permanent sterility

Š Frequency of intercourse (fecundability)
Š Spontaneous intrauterine mortality
Relatively less important determinants of
the trends or differentials in fertility
(though sterility due to disease is
important in some SSA regions)
23
 The Contraceptive Revolution
and Fertility Change Since 1960

Trends in Contraceptive Use in

Trends in Fertility in Developing
Developing Countries 1960-90
Countries 1960-90

1960 1990 1960 1990

8 7 80%
6.76.5 0.7
7 6 5.9 5.8 70%
0.6
6 5.1 60%
5 4.2
50%
4 3.2
2.6 0.36
0.4
3 40%
2 30%
0.17
1 20% 0.08 0.15 0.11
0 10% 0.05 0.02
0%
ME

So

L.

E.
SS

Am
.A

As
/N
Af

ME

S.

L.

E.
SS
ia
sia
A
ric

er

Am
As

As
/N
Af
ica
a

ia

ia
r.

er
.
24
25
Underlying Determinants
of Fertility in Populations

ŠThe underlying determinants of fertility

are those socio-economic, cultural, health
and programmatic factors that result in
changes in reproductive behaviors in
populations.
Š All underlying determinants must
operate through the proximate
determinants to influence the level of
fertility in a population.
26
 Underlying Determinants of
Fertility: Some Examples

♦ Social: education, income, work, status of

women
♦ Cultural: marriage practices, post-partum
abstinence, religious beliefs about contraception
♦ Health: prevalence of STDs, malaria
♦ Political: government policies regarding family
planning, female education
♦ Programmatic: availability of contraceptive
information and services

27
 % using modern methods
Er
it re

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ke a 1
C n y 99
o 5
M mo a 1
ad ro 99
ag s 8
as 19
c 9
M ar 6
a 19
R law 9 7
w i1
a
Ta nd 99
nz a 1 2
a 9
U nia 92
g
So an d 199
M uth a 1 6
oz e 99
a m rn 5
bi Afr
N que ica
am 1
ib 9
Za ia 97
Zi mb 199
m
ba i a 1 2
bw 99
Bu W e 1 6
rk es 99
in
a t Af 4
Fa ric
s a
Be o 1
n i 99
C n 9
ot CA 1 99
e
d R 6
C 'Ivo 199
am ir 4
er e 1
oo 99
G n1 4
No education

ha 9
G na 98
ui
ne 199
a 8
M 199
N ali 9
Primary

ig 19
er 9
ia 6
N 19
Se ige r 90
ne 19
ga 98
C l 19
ha 9
secondary

d 7
Contraceptive prevalence rates by the Level of Mother’s

To 19
go 97
19
98
Education, SSA, 1990-1999, Demographic and Health Surveys

28
 Summary Slide

Š This concludes this session, the key

concepts introduced in this session include:
– The proximate determinant of fertility
– The underlying or distal determinants of
fertility

29
 Fertility Change
Classic Theory of
Demographic Transition

TFR
6.5 to 7.5
5.9 to 6.4
Module 5c
(11)
(12)
5.5 to 5.8 (7)
4.3 to 5.4 (13)
2 to 4.2 (11)
 Learning Objectives
Upon completion of this module, the student will
be able to :

Š Describe , interpret and critique the classic

theory of demographic transition to explain
the current and historical trends in fertility
decline

31
 Why Does Fertility Decline?
Theories and Controversies

Š Fertility decline - No uniform pattern,

much diversity in the origin, speed and
correlates in different historical and
geographical setting.
Š No consensus on a common theoretical
framework.

32
Malthusian Theory of Population
Growth (Early 19th Century)

The “cause” of poverty

Š Population tends to increase at a geometric
rate
Š Food can only increase arithmetically
Š Population expands to eat up any surplus
Š Subsistence wages forever unless “moral
checks” (abstinence from marriage)
Š Otherwise “positive checks” on population
growth - misery (wars, famines) and vice (use
of contraception)
33
 Why Fertility Declines: The Classic
Demographic Transition Theory
(Notestein and Davis, 1950s)

Š Socio-economic development leads to:

– Increased supply of children due to
reduced mortality
– Reduced utility of children
– Reduced desired family size
Š Declining mortality and, after some lag
period, declining fertility follow from
socioeconomic development 34
What Does Empirical Evidence Say
about the Demographic Transition?

Š Princeton European Fertility Project:

launched in 1963, two decade long
endeavor- designed to test transition theory
with historical data from roughly 700
provincial -level units throughout Europe.
Š World Fertility Surveys: launched in the
1970s provided evidence on fertility change
from over 40 less- developed countries

35
Relationship between TFR and the Human
Development Index (HDI) for less
developed countries in 1960-65

Source: Fig. 4, Bongaarts and Watkins, 1996 36

Relationship between TFR and level of
development (HDI) for 69 developing
countries,1960-65 to 1985-90

Source: Fig2, Bongaarts and Watkins,1996 37

 What Does Empirical Evidence Say
About the Demographic Transition
Theory?

Š No consistent relationship can found

between the timing of the onset of
fertility decline or level of fertility and
measures of social and economic
development as one looks across
countries

38
Necessary Preconditions for Decline in
Marital Fertility (A. Coale, 1973)

Š A setting that allows fertility control to be

part of calculus of conscious choice
Š Clear economic advantages of smaller
family size
Š Availability of information about, and
means of, fertility control

39
 Summary Slide

Š This concludes this session, the concepts

introduced in this session include:
– Malthusian theory of population growth
– Classic theory of demographic transition
– Necessary preconditions for decline in
marital fertility as proposed by A. Coale

40
 Fertility Change

Theories of Fertility Transition

TFR
Module 5d
6.5 to 7.5 (11)
5.9 to 6.4 (12)
5.5 to 5.8 (7)
4.3 to 5.4 (13)
2 to 4.2 (11)
 Learning Objectives
Upon completion of this module, the student will
be able to :

Š Describe , interpret and critique the existing

theories to explain the current and historical
trends in fertility decline

42
 Recent Fertility Transition
Theories

Š Theory of intergenerational wealth flow (Caldwell,

1982)
Š Easterlin’s theory of supply and demand
(Easterlin an Crimmins, 1985)
Š Diffusion of innovation theory (Cleland and
Wilson, 1987)

43
 Theory of Intergenerational
Wealth Flows
Š Changes in child labor, compulsory
education, extended families, etc., shifts
child-to-parent “wealth flow” to parent-to-
child
Š Fertility is limited as children become a
burden to the family
Š Criticism: little empirical evidence to
support this theory

44
 Economic Theories of Fertility:
Easterlin theory of supply-demand
Š Three basic determinants of fertility:
1. supply of children, initially limited by
poor health conditions
2. demand for children for economic and
social reasons
3. cost of fertility regulation, including
social and psychic as well as monetary
costs
Š Modernization can lead first to a rise and
then to a fall in fertility
45
Economic Theory of Supply and
Demand: Criticism

Š Does not specify what socioeconomic

variables account for demand for
children
Š Does not explain the variations in pre-
transitional marital fertility

46
 Diffusion of Innovations
(Ideational) Theory (Cleland
and Wilson)

Š The key element is diffusion of:

– knowledge (of birth control
methods)
– attitudes (towards use of
contraceptives)
– innovations (in birth control
technologies and behaviors)
47
 Diffusion of Innovations
Theory: Implications
Š Population sub-groups open to outside influence
would be affected first
Š In the process of transition, fertility differentials
across diffusion barriers (race, language,
education) will first increase, then decline
Š Fertility decline is most rapid in homogenous
populations
Š Family planning programs can help to bring about
fertility decline

48
 Diffusion of Innovations
Theory: Criticism
Š Narrow in focus, the human drama of fertility
decline is more than just a technological
issue related to changing contraceptive
behaviors
Š Places culture out of social, economic and
political context
Š Limited empirical evidence – e.g., does not
indicate when innovations will actually be
adopted by a population

49
 Gaps in Current Theories on
Fertility: Role of Power and Culture

Š Role of authoritarian political power, e.g, in

China and Indonesia
Š Role of democratic institutions, e.g., in Thailand
and India
Š The interaction of cultural traditions and
political decisions, e.g., in Pakistan and sub-
Saharan African

50
Gaps in the Current Theories on
Fertility: Role of Gender

Š How have gender roles and

relationships shaped reproduction in
different times and different places?
Š Importance of gender in population
policies has been highlighted in the
1994 International Conference on
Population and Development
Š Limited research in this area

51
 Role of National Family
Planning Programs in Fertility
Decline
Š Provide information on fertility regulation
methods
Š Reduce the costs (and enhance the effectiveness)
of contraceptive practice (monetary, time, and
psychic)
Š May influence demand for children by changing
the social norms about ideal family size, role and
status of women, etc., through IEC activities

continued
52
 Role of National Family
Planning Programs
Š Hard to quantify and separate the effect of family
planning programs on fertility decline from other
socio-economic factors
Š Mauldin and colleagues (1978,1984,1996)
collected information on FP program effort in
different countries and found a consistent positive
relationship between contraceptive prevalence
and program effort score even when controlling
for level of SE development

53
 Is There a Theory of Fertility
Decline Applicable to All Areas?
Š Fertility transitions are the result of a
complex interaction of social, economic,
cultural and political forces that change
patterns of family formation, family size
desires, and fertility control behaviors
Š The relative importance of different forces
may be quite different in different settings
Š There may not be a single theory that fully
encompasses these processes

54
 Summary Slide
Š This concludes this session, the key concepts
introduced in this session include
– Theory of intergeneration wealth flow
– Easterlin’s theory of supply and demand
– Diffusion of innovation theory
– Role of gender, power and culture in fertility
decline
– Role of national family programs in fertility
decline

55