ARTICLE IN PRESS

Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Methodology for predicting sequences of mean monthly clearness

index and daily solar radiation data in remote areas:
Application for sizing a stand-alone PV system
A. Mellita,d,,1,2, S.A. Kalogiroub, S. Shaaric, H. Salhid, A. Hadj Arabe,f
a

Department of Electronics, Institute of Sciences Engineering, Centre University of Medea, Medea 26000, Algeria
b
Higher Technical Institute, P.O. Box 20423, Nicosia 2152, Cyprus
c
Faculty of Applied Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
d
Department of Electronics, Faculty of Science Engineering, Blida University, Blida 09000, Algeria
e
Development Centre of Renewable Energy (CDER), P.O. Box 62, Bouzareah, Algiers 16000, Algeria
f
Departamento de Energias Renerables, CIEMAT, Arda Complutense, 22, Madrid 28040, Spain
Received 14 February 2007; accepted 15 August 2007
Available online 24 October 2007

Abstract
In this paper, a suitable adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model is presented for estimating sequences of mean monthly
clearness index (K t ) and total solar radiation data in isolated sites based on geographical coordinates. The magnitude of solar radiation is
the most important parameter for sizing photovoltaic (PV) systems. The ANFIS model is trained by using a multi-layer perceptron
(MLP) based on fuzzy logic (FL) rules. The inputs of the ANFIS are the latitude, longitude, and altitude, while the outputs are the 12values of mean monthly clearness index K t . These data have been collected from 60 locations in Algeria. The results show that the
performance of the proposed approach in the prediction of mean monthly clearness index K t is favorably compared to the measured
values. The root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and estimated values varies between 0.0215 and 0.0235 and the mean
absolute percentage error (MAPE) is less than 2.2%. In addition, a comparison between the results obtained by the ANFIS model and
articial neural network (ANN) models, is presented in order to show the advantage of the proposed method. An example for sizing a
stand-alone PV system is also presented. This technique has been applied to Algerian locations, but it can be generalized for any
geographical position. It can also be used for estimating other meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity and wind speed.
r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Clearness index Kt; Solar radiation; PV system sizing; ANFIS; ANN

1. Introduction

Abbreviations: AI, articial intelligence; ANFIS, adaptive neuro-fuzzy

inference system; ANN, articial neural network; GA, genetic algorithm;
MAPE, mean absolute percentage error; MLP, multi-layer perceptron;
MTM, matrices transition Markov; RBF, radial basis function; RMSE,
root mean square error; RNN, recurrent neural network; MRE, mean
relative error
Corresponding author. Department of Electronics, Institute of
Sciences Engineering, Centre University of Medea, Medea 26000, Algeria.
Tel.: +213 51998982.
E-mail address: a.mellit@yahoo.co.uk (A. Mellit).
1
Associate member at Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy.
2
Also at: Department of Electronics, Faculty of Sciences Engineering,
Jijel University, Jijel 18000, Algeria.
0960-1481/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.renene.2007.08.006

The amount of global solar radiation and its temporal

distribution are the primary variables used in the design of
solar energy systems. Knowledge of these parameters is
required for the prediction of the performance of a possible
solar energy system at a particular location. Generating
synthetic radiation values is often the only practical way to
obtain radiation data at a daily or hourly time scales. This
is so because measured sequences of radiation values are
available only for a few number of locations or regions in
each country and even when they are available they
are usually at difference time-length periods [1]. It should
be noted that the amount of solar radiation is the most

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

Nomenclature
Alt
APV
CBat
Cf
CInv
CM
CPV
CU
Erc
Ers
H
H0
Imax
K t

altitude (m)
PV-generator area (m2)
battery capacity cost (h)
cost function (h)
cost of inverter (h)
maintenance cost per year of the battery and
PV-module (h)
PV-module cost (h)
useful capacity of the battery (Wh)
calculated error
specied error
mean monthly total solar radiation (Wh/m2day)
extraterrestrial means monthly total solar
radiation (Wh/m2-day)
maximum current
mean monthly clearness index

important parameter for a solar system designer and

particularly for sizing stand-alone photovoltaic (PV)
systems [26].
PV systems can be used for electrication of villages in
rural areas, for telecommunications, refrigeration, water
pumping (particularly in agricultural irrigation), and many
more. A stand-alone PV system is the most suitable for
remote areas, which are not connected to electricity grid
such as the ones found in some remote villages in Algeria.
In literature, several studies are presented for estimating
the clearness index and solar radiation values based on
statistical approaches and articial neural network (ANN)
techniques [714]. The application of the wavelet analysis
with ANNs has been proposed in order to predict missing
total solar radiation data [15,16] with good accuracy
(correlation coefcient=97%). However, these techniques
are not adequate for isolated locations, which do not have
long periods of solar radiation records.
The method proposed in [17] can solve this problem but
it needs the availability of the mean temperature and
sunshine duration which are not always available, particularly in remote areas. A critical study for the prediction of
global solar radiation data from sunshine duration is
proposed in [18]. Mohandes et al. [19] proposed the use of
radial basis function network (RBFN) in order to estimate the monthly solar radiation data for 41 Saudi Arabia
sites; the results obtained were within 16% (mean relative
error).
The same principle based on multi-layer perceptron
(MLP) is applied for various Turkish and Spanish
locations for forecasting monthly solar radiation and for
drawing solar radiation maps, respectively [20,21]. Both
techniques proposed require various input parameters for
training the neural networks such as daily clearness index,
ambient temperature, sunshine duration etc. However, in

K^ t
Kt
L
Lat.
Lon.
LLP
LLPs
LLPc
N
O
Pmax
SOC
w
x1, x2
y

1571

predicted mean monthly clearness index

daily clearness index value
consumption (kWh)
latitude (deg)
longitude (deg)
loss of load probability
specied LLP
calculated LLP
number of days
output
maximum power
state of charge
ring strength
the input of the ANFIS
the output of the ANFIS

Greek letter
s

variance

cases where the above input parameters are not available,

these techniques cannot be used for estimating or
forecasting solar radiation.
A more recent study has been presented in [22]. In this
study, a hybrid model based on multi-layer perceptron
network (MLPN) and matrices transition Markov (MTM),
has been developed in order to estimate the total solar
radiation data in isolated sites in Algeria, based on
geographical coordinates. This hybrid model is called
MLPMTM approach and the correlation coefcient
obtained was between 90% and 92%.
The clearness index (Kt) is dened as the ratio between
total solar radiation and the corresponding extraterrestrial
radiation (H0). The present work aims to investigate the
potential of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
(ANFIS) for the modelling and prediction of the mean
monthly clearness index (K t ), and solar radiation data in
isolated sites and to assess its performance relative to
ANNs. Subsequently, based on the MTM method [2] we
will try to improve the results obtained before [22]. In this
work, the 12-values of mean monthly clearness index K t in
the output of the model have been used instead of using the
average solar radiation data. The data used in this study
were collected from various meteorological stations in
Algeria. This model could then be used as a design tool for
estimating the performance of stand-alone PV systems.
This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides the
description of the database used in this study. A denition
of the ANFIS is presented in Section 3 together with the
underlying principles and the neuro-fuzzy computing
architecture employed. Section 4 describes the methodology used for predicting the clearness index and the solar
radiation in isolated sites together with a discussion of the
results obtained. Finally, an application for sizing a standalone PV system is presented in Section 5.

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normalized by dividing each mean monthly solar radiation

value (H) by the corresponding mean extraterrestrial value
(H0); thus, the database of 60  12 monthly clearness index
values (K t ) used in this study has been obtained. In
addition, a database of 1 year records of total daily solar
radiation data is available corresponding to the following
sites: Algiers (361430 N, 31150 E), Oran (351380 N, 31700 E),

2. Available data
The database used in this study consists of 60  12 sets of
mean monthly solar radiation values collected by the
National Ofce of Meteorology (NOM) of Algeria (for 60sites). Each site contains 12-values corresponding to the
mean monthly radiation data. This database has been

Monthly irradiation
(Wh/m2/day)

Algiers (3643N, 315E)

Oran (3538N, 070W)

6000

6000

4000

4000

2000

2000
2

10

12

Monthly irradiation
(Wh/m2/day)

Bechar (3138N, 210W)

6000

6000

4000

4000

2000

2000
2

6
8
Time (month)

10

12

Monthly clearness (Kt)

Algiers (3643N, 315E)

10

12

6
8
Time (month)

10

12

Oran (3538N, 070W)

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3
2

10

12

Bechar (3138N, 210W)

Monthly clearness (Kt)

Tamanrasset (2247N, 531E)

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3
2

6
8
Time (month)

10

10

12

Tamanrasset (2247N, 531E)

12

0.3

6
8
Time (month)

10

12

Fig. 1. (a) Mean monthly solar radiation data H (Wh/m2/day) and (b) mean monthly clearness index (Kt) for the four testing sites.

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Table 1
Database of average annual total solar radiation data and clearness index Kt (year 2001)
No.

01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60

Sites
Name of the site

Latitude (1N)

Longitude (1)

Altitude (m)

Algiers
Oran
Bechar
Tamanresset
Tlemcen
Sidi Bel Abbes
Saida
Ain Sefra
Timimoun
Adrar
Tindouf
Djanet
Illizi
In Amenas
El Menia
Ouargla
Ghardaia
Touggourt
El Oued
Elmaghair
Ouled Djellal
Beskra
Tebessa
Khenchela
Ouenza
Souk Ahras
Guelma
Constantine
Elakala
Annaba
Skikda
Collo
Batna
Mila
Setif
Jijel
Bejaia
Bordj bou arreridj
Msila
Bou Saada
Tiziouzou
Djelfa
Blida
Bouira
Medea
Tiseemsilt
Tiaret
Chelef
Mostganem
Maaskar
El Ouata
In Salah
Laghouat
Hassi Messaoud
Bordj Omar Idris
Adrar
Tazzouk
Tamadjert (Tassili)
Tahat
Touareg

36.43
35.38
31.38
22.47
34.52
35.12
34.50
32.45
29.15
27.51
27.40
24.32
26.29
28.03
30.34
31.57
32.30
33.06
33.22
33.57
34.26
34.51
35.24
35.27
35.56
36.17
36.28
36.22
36.54
36.54
36.52
37.00
35.35
36.08
36.11
36.49
36.45
36.04
35.42
35.12
36.41
34.39
36.27
36.22
36.15
35.36
25.22
36.08
35.55
35.23
29.52
27.12
33.38
31.40
28.07
27.52
22.26
25.35
23.16
21.33

03.15E
00.70W
02.10W
05.31E
01.19W
00.38W
00.08W
00.34W
00.13E
00.17W
08.09W
09.28E
08.28E
09.32E
02.53E
05.20E
03.40E
06.03E
06.51E
05.56E
05.03E
05.43E
08.06E
07.08E
08.07E
07.56E
07.24E
06.36E
08.26E
07.44E
06.54E
06.32E
06.10E
06.09E
05.24E
05.45E
05.03E
04.37E
04.32E
04.10E
03.51E
03.12E
02.47E
03.53E
02.45E
01.48E
01.19E
01.17E
00.03E
00.07E
01.49W
02.27E
02.52E
06.08E
06.49E
06.00E
00.18W
07.19E
05.30E
04.20E

0025
0099
0806
1378
0810
0230
0434
1072
0220
0205
0402
1054
0560
0654
0432
0141
0450
0069
0070
0230
0085
0081
0812
2297
2067
1820
1785
0667
0030
0005
0009
0035
1040
0965
1081
0020
0009
0381
0560
0675
0184
1144
0120
1244
1280
1150
1765
0112
0418
0561
0490
0471
0767
0143
0600
0264
0430
2500
3000
0800

H (kWh/day/m2)

Kt

4.6884
4.6468
5.8516
6.4221
4.3770
6.6096
5.7866
6.1417
5.5766
5.6812
5.3009
5.2566
5.5118
5.7116
6.3545
6.3151
6.1814
6.0168
5.8433
4.5705
4.0668
4.7917
3.6070
4.8053
4.7022
4.4549
4.8828
4.9304
4.7767
4.3082
4.1833
4.0345
4.1096
5.1917
4.8864
3.8963
3.9914
4.2838
4.3090
5.0084
4.3699
5.7365
4.0853
4.0742
3.9831
4.8734
4.0756
4.9876
5.0897
5.0987
6.6254
5.7848
5.8760
5.1155
6.0921
5.9851
6.4568
6.6540
6.8765
6.6985

0.4308
0.4487
0.5685
0.5875
0.5233
0.5165
0.5648
0.6223
0.6188
0.6655
0.6277
0.6273
0.6034
0.6565
0.5955
0.5534
0.5465
0.5587
0.5876
0.5437
0.4963
0.5843
0.3929
0.4337
0.5259
0.4454
0.4029
0.5550
0.6899
0.4096
0.4532
0.4679
0.3087
0.5883
0.5885
0.4261
0.4441
0.4809
0.5257
0.4953
0.3984
0.5192
0.4611
0.4154
0.4052
0.4574
0.4876
0.4798
0.5238
0.5564
0.6874
0.6376
0.5898
0.6529
0.6045
0.6251
0.6266
0.6577
0.6545
0.6777

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Bechar (311380 N, 21100 W) and Tamanrasset (221470 N,

51310 E). These sites are used for testing the accuracy of
the model.
The mean monthly total solar radiation and clearness
index data for some sites are shown in Fig. 1(a) and (b),
respectively, while Table 1 presents the database of the
annual average total solar radiation data and clearness
index Kt of all sites used in this simulation.
3. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
Hybrid computational intelligence is dened as any
effective combination of intelligent techniques that performs better or in a competitive way to simple standard
intelligent techniques. A very thorough analysis of what is
meant by computational intelligence and what the trends of
modern articial intelligence (AI) can be found in [23,24].
Neural networks (NN) and fuzzy logic (FL) is proved to be
the most successful combination of intelligent techniques
and in modern literature are called as neuro-fuzzy systems
and techniques. Neuro-fuzzy systems have shown a high
rate of success when applied in complex application
domains, either when fuzzy set (FS) theory is the heart of
such a system or when the neural mechanism is the
dominant component in the architecture. The main
principle of this combination, as seen by a neural network
expert, can be roughly described as the adoption of fuzzy
functions in (mostly consisted of three layers) neural
networks nodes. On the other hand, a fuzzy systems
expert may realize a neural-like training (such as backpropagation) for the membership functions (MF) of a
fuzzy system. However, combinations and approaches in
these hybrid systems can be less obvious and descriptive,
concerning different NN or FS structures [25]. An overview
of the basic principles, mathematical descriptions, and the
state-of-the-art developments of FNNs, is presented in [26]
(Chapter 6). Zikidis and Vasilakos [27] propose a neurofuzzy function approximator which combines the reasoning
method with stochastic reinforcement learning. The model
is proved to be superior to backpropagation in simple nonlinear approximation tasks. Studer and Masulli [28] show
which elements have to be extracted from a chaotic time

series in order to dene the architecture of a forecasting

neuro-fuzzy system. They test the model on Mac Key
glass time series, concluding that the system is promising.
Nie [29] presents a fuzzy-neural approach to the prediction
of non-linear time series. The underlying mechanism
governing the time series is expressed in the form of
IfThen rules and is described by a modied selforganizing counter-propagation network. Tests over three
different time series demonstrate the efciency and the
effectiveness of this approach, over other network
approaches. Nauck and Kruse [30] presented a neurofuzzy system combining neural computation and heuristics
fuzzy rule generation. The system is proved very efcient
and effective in various complex domains in other
publications [31]. Tsakonas and Dounias [32] proposed a
combination of chaos analysis, neuro-fuzzy systems and
evolutionary training for stock exchange daily trading.
Shalinie [33] used a neuro-fuzzy for three benchmark
applications.
Neuro-fuzzy modelling [34] refers to the way of applying
various learning techniques developed in the neural
network literature to fuzzy modelling or to a fuzzy
inference system (FIS). The basic structure of an FIS
consists of three conceptual components: a rule base, which
contains a selection of fuzzy rules; a database, which
denes the MF used in the fuzzy rules; and a reasoning
mechanism, which performs the inference procedure upon
the rules to derive an output (see Fig. 2). Neural network
x1 x2
A1
x1

A1

w1

w1
A1

Lat
Lon
Alt

B1

x2

A1

N
w2

Layer 1

w2 f2

w2

B1

x1 x2
Layer 2

Layer 3 Layer 4

Layer 5

Fig. 3. Architecture of an ANFIS equivalent to a rst-order Sugeno fuzzy

model with two inputs and two rules.

Rule base

Defuzzification
interface

Fuzzification
interface

Input data

Knowledge base
Database

w1 f1

Kt1
Kt2
Kt12

Decision making unit

Fuzzy

Fuzzy
Fig. 2. Fuzzy inference system.

Output data

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The ANFIS uses a hybrid-learning rule combining

back-propagation, gradient-descent, and a least-squares
algorithm to identify and optimize the Sugeno systems
parameters. The equivalent ANFIS architecture of a
rst-order Sugeno fuzzy model with two rules is shown in
Fig. 3. The model has ve layers and every node in a
given layer has a similar function. The fuzzy If-Then
rule set, in which the outputs are linear combinations of

models are based on data mapping whereas FL models are

based on expert knowledge; in a situation in which both
data and knowledge of the underlying system are available,
a neuro-fuzzy approach is able to exploit both sources. The
neuro-fuzzy system used here is the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The system is an
adaptive network functionally equivalent to a rst-order
Sugeno FIS.

Kt1, Kt2 ..... Kt12

Reference model
Lat.
+

Lon.
Alt.

e
ANFIS

Kt1, Kt2, .... Kt12

Learning algorithm

Kt1

A
Lat

Kt2
A
B

Lon
B

Alt

C
C

Kt12

Lat Lon Alt

Fig. 4. (a) Block diagram of developed model and (b) proposed ANFIS-based prediction for prediction of monthly clearness index.

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

Fig. 5. Initial division of input and output spaces into ve fuzzy regions and their corresponding Gaussian membership function.

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

their inputs, is

Layer 1 consists of adaptive nodes that generate

membership grades of linguistic labels based upon premise
parameters, using any appropriate parameterized MF such
as the generalized bell function given by

Rule 1 : if x is A1 and y is B1 then

f 1 : p1 x q1 x r1 ,
Rule 2 : if x is A2 and y is B2 then

O1i mAi x

f 2 : p2 x q2 x r2 .

RBFN
# of iterations: 1700

100

100

RMSE

RMSE

(1)

101

MLPN
# of iterations: 3000

101

1
,
1 jx  ci =ai j2bi
RMS est 0.0176288,

RMS est 0.0417509

102

1577

10-1

10-1
10-2

10-2

10-3

10-3
0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

500

1000

Iteration

RMS est 0.0181289

RMS est 0.0129868

102

101

101

RMSE

RMSE

The proponed ANFIS

RNN
# of iterations: 1030

100

1500

Iteration

10-1

# of iterations: 920

100

10-1
10-2

10-3

10-2

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Iteration

10-3

100

200

300

400 500
Iteration

600

700

800

900

Fig. 6. RMSE for the different ANNs used in this simulation and the proposed ANFIS.

Table 2
Number iterations, training and testing RMSE for the different ANN and the proposed ANFIS
Model

No. of iterations

Training RMSE

Testing RMSE

Multi-layer perceptron, MLPN

Radial basis function network, RBFN
Recurrent neural network, RNN
ANFIS

3000
1700
1030
920

0.04175
0.01762
0.01289
0.01812

0.0154
0.0189
0.0201
0.0200

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where output O1i is the output of the ith node in the rst
layer, x is the input to node i, Ai is a linguistic label
(small, large, etc.) from FS A (A1, A2, B1, B2)
associated with the node, and {ai, bi, ci} is the premise
parameter set used to adjust the shape of the MF. The
nodes in layer 2 are xed nodes designated P, which
represent the ring strength of each rule. The output of
each node is the fuzzy AND (product, or MIN) of all the
input signals given by
O2i wi mAi xmBi y.

(2)

The outputs of layer 3 are the normalized ring

strengths. Each node is a xed rule labelled N. The output
of the ith node is the ratio of the ith rules ring strength to
the sum of all the rules ring strengths given by
O3i w
i

wi
.
w1 w2

(3)

The adaptive nodes in layer 4 calculate the rule out

puts based upon consequent parameters using the
function:
O4i w
if i w
i pi x qi y ri ,

(4)

where w
i is a normalized ring strength from layer 3
and (pi, qi, ri) is the consequent parameter set for the
node. The single node in layer 5, labelled S, calculates
the overall ANFIS output from the sum of the node

inputs:
O5i

The described ANFIS model is used for predicting the

mean monthly clearness index Kt in isolated sites. The
computer simulation has been developed under MATLAB
Ver.7 environment. The block diagram of the proposed
model is presented in Fig. 4(a) and (b). The inputs of this
model are the geographical coordinates of the site (altitude,
longitude and latitude), while the outputs are the 12-values
corresponding to the mean monthly clearness index (K t ).
The inputs and the outputs of the model are fuzzied
before they are used. The MF of the fuzzied part are
constructed in connection between the input layer and the
rule layer. Fig. 5 shows the initial MF for each input data

Oran (3538N, 070W)

Monthly clearness (Kt)

Monthly clearness (Kt)

Actual
Pridected

0.2

0.6

0.2

Bechar (3138N, 210W)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Tamanrasset (2247N, 531E)

0.8
Actual
Pridected

0.4
0.2

Monthly clearness (Kt)

Monthly clearness (Kt)

Actual
Pridected

0.4

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0.8

(5)

0.8

0.4

0.6

wi f
i
P
w
.
if i
wi

4. Model development and testing

Algiers (3643N, 315E)

Training the ANFIS is a two-pass process over a number

of epochs. During each epoch, the node outputs are
calculated up to layer 4. At layer 5, the consequent
parameters are calculated using a least-squares regression
method.
The output of the ANFIS is calculated and the errors are
propagated back through the layers in order to determine
the premise parameters (layer 1 updates).

0.8
0.6

0.6

Actual
Pridected

0.4
0.2
0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month

Fig. 7. Comparison of the actual mean actual monthly clearness index and predicted by ANFIS model for the four testing sites.

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

Fig. 8. Mean monthly clearness index maps for Algeria (year 2001).

1579

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

Fig. 8. (Continued)

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6.1342
5.2206
5.8978
5.8022
0.4157
0.4522
0.5672
0.5657
0.3166
0.3487
0.5256
0.4965
0.3308
0.3598
0.5787
0.5466
0.4086
0.4137
0.5934
0.5588
0.4655
0.4844
0.5965
0.5866
0.4563
0.5388
0.5355
0.5955
0.5102
0.5124
0.5966
0.5943
0.4936
0.4866
0.6251
0.5166
0.4472
0.4695
0.5589
0.5644
Estimated monthly clearness index K^ t based on B-spline function (monthly map)
Algiers (361430 N, 31150 E)
0.3585
0.3919
0.4024 0.4071
Oran (351380 N, 01700 W)
0.4287
0.4297
0.4798 0.4743
0.4892
0.5898
0.5484 0.5688
Bechar (311380 N, 21100 W)
Tamanrasset (221470 N, 51310 E)
0.5694
0.5756
0.5889 0.5956

2.2496
2.1865
2.5600
2.7089
0.4234
0.4425
0.5725
0.5831
0.3307
0.3853
0.5378
0.5543
0.3466
0.3876
0.5615
0.5756
0.4215
0.4237
0.5466
0.5656
0.4476
0.4663
0.5787
0.5794
0.4736
0.5005
0.5794
0.5632
0.4696
0.4888
0.5894
0.5714
0.4707
0604.4
0.5923
0.5602
0.4612
0.4795
0.5734
0.5614
0.4369
0.4474
0.5884
0.6077
0.4322
0.4465
0.5865
0.6166
Estimated monthly clearness index K^ t based on ANFIS model
Algiers (361430 N, 31150 E)
0.3785
0.4113
Oran (351380 N, 01700 W)
0.3898
0.4341
Bechar (311380 N, 21100 W)
0.5366
0.5998
0.6022
0.6394
Tamanrasset (221470 N, 51310 E)

0.4292
0.4387
0.5685
0.5856
0.3456
0.3753
0.5294
0.5784
0.3608
0.3730
0.5315
0.5909
0.4142
0.4337
0.5547
0.5807
0.4595
0.4558
0.5600
0.5537
0.4863
0.4868
0.5667
0.5732
0.4716
0.4924
0.5743
0.5680
0.4638
0.4587
0.5751
0.5488
0.4742
0.4695
0.5829
0.5851
0.4409
0.4519
0.5998
0.5947
0.4429
0.4621
0.6084
0.6384
0.3685
0.3919
0.5492
0.5894
Measured monthly clearness index K t
Algiers (361430 N, 31150 E)
Oran (351380 N, 01700 W)
Bechar (311380 N, 21100 W)
Tamanrasset (221470 N, 51310 E)

0.4219
0.4131
0.5898
0.6256

August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
Sites

Table 3
Mean absolute percentage error between actual and estimated Kt by using the ANFIS and B-spline function interpolation

September

October

November

December

Mean

MAPE (%)

A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

1581

of the ANFIS. When the data are fuzzied into classes,

a total of 56 patterns have been used for training the
model and four patterns have been used for testing
the model; the testing sites are Algiers, Oran, Bechar and
Tamanrasset. Fig. 6 illustrates the evolution of the root
mean square error (RMSE) for the different neural
networks (MLPN, RBFN, RNN) and for the proposed ANFIS. It is clearly shown that the ANN models
need more computing time compared with the ANFIS
model, represented by the number of iterations required
(see Table 2).
In order to test the performance of this model, a
comparison of the measured K t and ANFIS predicted K^ t
values are carried out and the results are shown in Fig. 7.
As can be seen from these graphs there are no important
differences between the measured and predicted mean
monthly cleanness index values for any site used for testing
the model.
Fig. 8 presents the mean monthly clearness index for
each month of the year for Algeria. These maps have been
developed based on B-spline function interpolation by
using the above training database (56  12). In order to
show the potential of the proposed approach for estimating
K t , a comparison between actual mean monthly clearness
index and the ones estimated by ANFIS and B-spline
function for the four testing sites (4  12) has been carried
out and the results are summarized in Table 3. As can be
seen, the ANFIS present more accurate results compared
with the B-spline-based interpolation.
Generally, the results are very satisfactory from the
statistical point of view as all sites tested exhibited low
mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values, implying
that they all have a good long-term representation.
In order to assess its performance relative to different
ANN architectures (MLPN, RBFN, and RNN), the
estimated K^ t by the different ANNs and the proposed
ANFIS are plotted in Fig. 9 for one site not included in the
database (Tahifet 221550 N, 6100 E). As can be observed
from Fig. 9, the ANFIS and the recurrent neural network
(RNN) give better results compared to those obtained by
MLPN or RBFN.
Table 4 presents the MAPE and RMSE for the different
ANN structures and the proposed ANFIS-model for this
isolated site (Tahifet). It is clearly shown that the ANFIS is
performing better than the other ANN alternative architectures, from the point of view of convergence time and
MAPE, which does not exceed 2.2%.
Once the proposed approach is validated, the MTM
method [2] (procedure is presented in Appendix A, [2,22])
has been used for generating sequences of total daily solar
radiation data. So the mean monthly clearness index
corresponding to the four locations which have been used
for generating sequences of daily total solar radiation data
for the four testing sites can be predicted.
A superposition between measured data for 1 year and
those predicted by the ANFISMTM approach is plotted
in Fig. 10. In the same graph, a comparison is made of both

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

1582

0.64

0.64

0.62
R2 = 97%

R2 = 96%

0.6

0.6

0.58

0.58
Predicted Kt

Predicted Kt

0.62

0.56
0.54
0.52

0.56
0.54
0.52

0.5

0.5

0.48

0.48

0.46

0.46

0.44
0.44 0.46 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64

0.44
0.44 0.46 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64
Measured Kt

Measured Kt
0.64

0.65

0.62
0.6

2
R = 96%

R2 = 95%

0.6

Predicted Kt

Predicted Kt

0.58
0.56
0.54
0.52

0.55

0.5

0.5
0.48

0.45

0.46
0.44
0.44 0.46 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64

0.4
0.44 0.46 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64

Measured Kt

Measured Kt

Fig. 9. Comparison between different ANN architectures and the proposed ANFIS predicting monthly clearness index for one isolated site (221550 N,
6100 E).

Table 4
MAPE and correlation coefcient between different ANN and ANFIS for isolated sites
Model

Predicted K^ t

MAPE (%)

Correlation coefcient, R2

Multi-layer perceptron, MLPN

Radial basis function network, RBFN
Recurrent neural network, RNN
ANFIS

0.5526
0.5542
0.5556
0.5561

3.1
3.3
3.2
2.2

95
96
96
97

Measured Kt

0.5571

series based on cumulative function in order to show the

importance of the proposed approach. It should be noted
that an almost complete agreement is obtained between the
measured and estimated data. Additionally, the correlation

coefcient range between 95% and 98%, which is very

satisfactory compared to the alternative MLPMTM
model that has been proposed in [22], which gave a
correlation coefcient of 92%.

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

1583

Fig. 10. Estimated daily solar radiation data from MTM method based on the predicted monthly clearness index by using the ANFIS model.

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

Fig. 11. Sequences of daily solar radiation data obtained from the predicted mean monthly clearness index based on the proposed ANFIS and MTM
approach corresponding to 10 years.

5. Application for sizing of a stand-alone photovoltaic

systems
So far, the proposed ANFISMTM model has been
applied for generating sequences of clearness index and
sequences of total daily solar radiation data. In this section,
an example for sizing a PV system based on the data
predicted by the proposed ANFISMTM is presented.
Based on this approach, the sequences of total daily solar
radiation data for 10-years are generated and presented in
Fig. 11 for the four testing sites. A simplied schematic of
stand-alone PV system is shown in Fig. 12. It consists of
PV generator, battery, regulator and an AC/DC inverter.
Sizing represents an important part of PV system design;
it is generally used to determine the size of PV-generator
and the storage capacity of the batteries. Several models
have been developed in literature in order to nd the
optimal sizing of PV systems based on analytical,
numerical and hybrid approaches [3542]. The construction of a sizing curve based on loss of load probability
(LLP) requires the modelling of PV system operation over
a substantial period of time. The time series of solar
radiation cannot be obtained directly from observations
but need to be reproduced synthetically based on an
algorithm which is faithful to the solar radiation statistics.
The relationship between the LLP values and the perceived

Battery

DC
PV-Generator

Charge
controller
Load
=
Inverter

AC

~
Fig. 12. Simplied schematic of a stand-alone PV system.

reliability requirements of the user are then indirect,

although generally accepted correspondence exist for most
standard applications [6,36].
Based on the numerical method developed by Egido and
Lorenzo [36] (presented in Appendix B [22,36]), the sizing
and cost curve for actual and predicted data by using the
ANFISMTM is plotted, and then based on analytical
costs, the initial total cost of the stand-alone PV system
required in each site in order to satisfy a given load is
calculated (see Fig. 13). The initial total cost is the sum of

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

1585

Fig. 13. Sizing and cost-function curve function based on actual and estimated daily solar radiation by ANFISMTM approach.

Table 5
Analytical cost
Battery
Nominal capacity (Ah)
Voltage
Maximum, permissible depth of discharge (%)
Capital cost (h)
Maintenance cost (h/year)

PV-module
220
12
80
260
2.5

Voc (V)
Isc (A)
Vmax (V)
Imax (A)
Pmax (V)
Capital cost (h)
Maintenance cost (h/year)

the costs of the PV-module, batteries, inverter and the total

maintenance cost and can be written as follows:
C T C PV C Bat C Inv C M ,

Inverter DC/AC

(6)

24
7
16.9
6.48
111
520
5.2

Efciency (%)
Power rating (W)
Capital cost (h)
Maintenance cost (h/year)

75
1400
190
19.2

where CPV is the PV-modules cost, CBat is the

batteries cost, CInv is the inverter cost and CM is the
maintenance cost per year for the batteries and PVmodules.

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1586

Table 5 presents the analytical costs of the various

components of the PV system used in this simulation.
The actual and predicted total costs of a PV system
for a domestic application are shown in Table 6. A
high cost is required for implementing a PV system in
Northern locations compared to those obtained for the

Table 6
Actual and predicted total cost for PV system for domestic application
Name of site

Geographical
coordinates

Actual cost
based on
measured data
(h)

Predicted cost
based on
estimated data
by the
proposed
approach (h)

Algiers

361430 N,
31150 E
351380 N,
01700 W
311380 N,
21100 W
221470 N,
51310 E

1995

2027

1950

2015

1668

1695

1380

1410

Oran
Bechar
Tamanrasset

PV-array generator APV (m2)

12

Actual

Southern sites which have a very high irradiation potential of more than 6 kWh/day. In addition, based on an
ANN-GA approach developed in the past and presented
in [42], the optimal sizing surface of PV-generator (APV)
and storage batteries (CU) in order to satisfy a given
consumption (L), by minimizing the cost function for each
of the four locations used in this simulation can be
determined.
Fig. 14(a) and (b) shows a comparison and the
mean relative error of the sizing parameters, based on the
measured daily solar radiation data and estimated by the
different ANN models and the proposed ANFISMTM
for the array area. The corresponding graphs for the
batteries capacity are shown in Fig. 15(a) and (b). As can
be observed, a good correlation is obtained from all ANN
models used. However, the proposed method presents
more accurate results compared to the reported alternative
ANN [22]. In addition, the MAPE is less than 0.2%.
6. Conclusion
This paper proposes an ANFIS for predicting the mean
monthly clearness index K t and daily solar radiation data

MLPN

RBFN

RNN

ANFIS

10
8
6
4
2
0

Bechar

Oran

Algiers

Tamanrasset

Sites
MLPN

0.2

RBFN

RNN

ANFIS

Mean relative error (%)

0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Bechar

Oran

Algiers

Tamanrasset

Sites
Fig. 14. (a) Comparison between actual PV-array area and the area estimated by the different ANN models and the proposed ANFISMTM for the four
testing sites. (b) Mean relative error for the array area for the four testing sites.

ARTICLE IN PRESS
A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

Actual

MLPN

RBFN

RNN

1587

ANFIS

Useful capacity CU (Kwh)

3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Bechar

Oran

Algiers

Tamanrasset

Sites

0.3

MLPN

RBFN

RNN

ANFIS

Mean relative error (%)

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
Bechar

Oran

Algiers

Tamanrasset

Sites
Fig. 15. (a) Comparison between actual useful battery capacity and the capacity estimated by the different ANN models and the proposed ANFISMTM
for the four testing sites. (b) Mean relative error for the useful battery capacity for the four testing sites.

in isolated areas. The proposed model has been applied and

tested in various Algerian locations. It can be concluded
from the results obtained that the ANFIS is performing
better compared with other ANN architectures (MLPN,
RBFN and RNN) employed. The advantage of this model
is that it can estimate Kt from only the geographical
coordinates of the site. So in this proposed model, the
mean temperature, sunshine duration and other parameters
are not required, which in most cases are not available.
Additionally, when the mean monthly clearness index has
been obtained, based on MTM method, the sequences of
long-term daily solar radiation data were generated. It can
be concluded from the number of sites used together with
their geographical range that the proposed ANFISMTM
approach is generally valid for estimating sequences of
daily total solar radiation data in any location in
Algeria. These data are required for sizing PV systems
particularly in remote areas. The application of PV
systems sizing shows clearly the advantage of the proposed model to the alternative ANN architectures. The
results have been obtained for an Algerian location but
the methodology can be generalized to be used in other

parts of the world, as the proposed technique does not

depend on the intrinsic properties of the sequences (e.g.
wind, humidity, temperature, etc.). In order to generalize
this methodology in other parts of the world, a long
database would be required covering data for a number
of locations in various countries, which can be obtained
from Ref. [43]. Future work include the use of the
ANFIS with a genetic algorithm (GA) for long-term
forecasting of the daily clearness index in isolated areas
and to generalize the proposed approach for any location
in Africa.
Acknowledgment
The rst author would like to thank the Director of the
ONM (Ofce National Meteorology of Algiers), for the
provision of the solar radiation database for the different
sites.

Appendix A. Flowchart of the MTM method for generating

sequences of daily clearness index

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A. Mellit et al. / Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 15701590

Start

Introduces the monthly clearness index Kt

Initialization: n_month = 1 Ktd = Kt (12)

Choose of the MTMs k_month = k_month (n_month)

Step = (ktmax-ktmin)/10, k = 1

V (k) = Ktmin+step

k = k+1

No

V (k) > = 10

k_month = k_month (n_month), day = 1, k = 1 z = 0

k = k+1

No

Kt0 < V (k)

row = k

z = rand (0,1), s = 0

10

s = MTM (row, j)
j=1

j = j+1

No

s>z

row = j, Kt (n_month, day) = V (row)-step/2, Kt0 = Kt (n_month, day)

day > n_k

month = month + 1

No

day = day + 1

n_month > 12
Yes
print Kt

End

The above ow chart presents the different steps for

generating sequences of dality clearness index (Kt), based
on the 12 previous values of monthly clearness index (K t )

by using 10 Markov transition matrices (MTM), and 10

intervals of Kt which are used for selecting the starting
matrix; more details are presented in Ref. [2].

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Appendix B. Flowchart of the numerical procedure for the construction of the LLP-curve
Begin

Initialization: Lj, Nj LLPs, Ers

Introduce the daily irradiation values for 10 - years

Cs = 0.1

Ca = 0.3

Estimation of SOCj and the pair (Ca, Cs)

Ca = Ca - 0.05

No

Yes

LLPc > LLPs

Ca = Ca + 0.05

No

Erc > Ers

Yes
Cs = Cs + 1

Yes

Cs < = 10
No

Obtained all pairs (Ca, Cs) for LLPs

End

The above ow chart shows the different steps for

determining the sizing couple (CA, CS) and drawing the isoreliability curve CA f(CS), for a given LLP, load and
irradiation. By using the following formulas [36]:
8
H
>
C ZAPV
>
L ;
< A
C S CL ;
>


>
: SOCj min SOCj1 ZAPV H ; 1 :
C

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