THE

FIELD
POLL

THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY

OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS
THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation

601 California Street, Suite 900
San Francisco, CA 94108-2814
(415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541
EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com
www.field.com/fieldpollonline

Release #2491

Release Date: Tuesday, November 4, 2014

TODAYS STATEWIDE ELECTION

LIKELY TO ESTABLISH A NEW LOW
TURNOUT RECORD.

IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is

subject to revocation if publication or broadcast
takes place before release date or if contents are
divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff
prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

The Field Poll estimates that only 8.2 million Californians will be participating in todays statewide
general election. If this estimate is realized, this would represent a turnout of just 46.1% of the
states 17.8 million registered voters and just 33.8% of the states 24.3 million adult citizens who
are eligible to register and vote. Both would represent record lows for a statewide general election
in California in the modern era.
The poll also projects that the proportion of voters choosing to cast their ballot by mail will reach
another new high, with 60% of all ballots cast by mail and just 40% participating at their local
polling precinct.
Turnout in todays election will likely set a new record low
Currently about 24.3 million citizen adults in California are eligible to register and vote. Of these,
17.8 million, or 73.3% are actually on the voter registration rolls.
The Field Poll estimates that only about 8.2 million of these voters will actually be participating in
todays statewide general election. This number would represent a record low 46.1% turnout of the
states registered voters and would comprise a 33.8% turnout of the states citizen-eligible adults.
If these estimates are realized, this would represent the lowest proportions of registered voters and
citizen-eligibles in any California presidential or non-president election in the modern era.
The following table summarizes the trends of Californias total population, its citizen-eligible
adults, its total registered voters and the number of voting participants in each statewide general
election since 1960.

Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action Employer

The Field Poll

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

#2491
Page 2

Table 1
Estimates of California population, eligible to vote and registration totals,
and turnout and participation rates in statewide general elections
1960 present (figures in thousands)
Population

November
General
Elections
2014
2012 P
2010
2008 P
2006
2004 P
2002
2000 P
1998
1996 P
1994
1992 P
1990
1988 P
1986
1984 P
1982
1980 P
1978
1976 P
1974
1972 P
1970
1968 P
1966
1964 P
1962
1960 P
NOTE:

2
3
4

Total
38,340
37,669
37,254
38,049
37,172
35,394
35,301
34,336
33,252
32,344
32,000
31,000
29,800
28,592
26,444
25,550
24,500
23,669
22,314
21,550
20,915
20,447
19,971
19,143
18,550
17,708
16,579
15,567

CitizenEligible
Adults1
24,288
23,803
23,552
23,209
22,652
22,075
21,466
21,461
20,806
19,527
18,496 4
20,864
19,245
19,052
17,561
16,582
15,984
15,384
14,781
14,196
13,703
13,322 2
12,182
11,813
11,448
10,959
10,305
9,587

Registration
Percent
of
Number
CitizenRegistered Eligibles
17,804
73.3
18,246
76.7
17,286
73.7
17,304
74.6
15,837
69.9
16,557
75.0
15,303
71.3
15,707
73.2
14,969
71.9
15,602
80.2
14,724
77.7
15,101
72.6
13,478
70.0
14,005
73.5
12,834
73.1
13,074
78.8
11,559
72.3
11,362
73.9
10,130
68.5
9,980
70.3
9,928
72.5
10,466
78.6
8,706
71.5
8,588
72.7
8,341
72.9
8,184
74.7
7,531
73.1
7,465
77.9

Voting

Number
Voting
8,200 3
13,202
10,300
13,743
8,899
12,590
7,739
11,143
8,618
10,260
8,901
11,374
7,899
10,200
7,617
9,796
8,064
8,775
7,132
8,137
6,395
8,596
6,633
7,364
6,606
7,233
5,930
6,593

Percent of
CitizenPercent
Eligibles
of
(Participation
Registration
rate)
3
46.1
33.8 3
72.4
55.5
59.6
43.7
79.4
59.2
56.2
39.3
76.0
57.0
50.6
36.1
70.9
57.9
57.6
41.4
65.6
52.5
60.5
47.0
75.3
54.5
58.6
41.0
72.8
53.5
59.4
43.4
74.9
59.1
69.8
50.4
77.2
57.0
70.4
48.2
81.5
57.3
64.1
46.5
82.1
64.5
76.2
54.4
85.7
62.3
79.2
57.7
88.4
66.0
78.7
57.5
88.3
68.8

Eligible voting population estimates are based on projections of the U.S. Census made by the
California Department of Finance.
Prior to 1972, minimum voting age was 21. Since 1972, it has been 18.
Field Poll estimates.
The computation of the number of citizen-eligibles by the California Department of Finance in
1994 was done using a different methodology than in previous years. Thus, the apparent decline in
citizen-eligibles may be a result of this change in methodology rather than a real decline in the
citizen-eligible population.
Indicates Presidential election year, all others are gubernatorial election years.

The Field Poll

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

#2491
Page 3

Record number of voters will be mailing in their vote

Of the estimated 8.2 million Californians expected to participate in this years general election, The
Field Poll estimates that a record high proportion 60% will be cast using a mail ballot.
Since 1980 the proportion of citizen-adults voting by mail has increased steadily year after election
year. According to the California Secretary of State, in the 2012 presidential election 51.2% of
Californians cast their votes by mail, up from 48.4% who did so in the 2010 gubernatorial election.
Both of these percentages established new record highs at the time. This years election will very
likely set a new high.
Table 2a
Precinct and Mail Ballot Voting
in California General Elections since 1978
Precinct voters
2014
2012 (P)
2010
2008 (P)
2006
2004 (P)
2002
2000 (P)
1998
1996 (P)
1994
1992 (P)
1990
1988 (P)
1986
1984 (P)
1982
1980 (P)
1978
1976 (P)

3,280,000* (40.0%)*
6,448,470
(48.8%)
5,310,540
(51.6%)
8,020,712
(58.4%)
5,202,119
(58.5%)
8,484,504
(67.4%)
5,642,727
(72.9%)
8,403,688
(75.4%)
6,486,187
(75.3%)
8,185,425
(79.8%)
6,937,749
(78.0%)
9,424,005
(82.8%)
6,446,992
(81.6%)
8,759,686
(85.9%)
6,931,802
(91.0%)
8,882,801
(90.7%)
7,539,128
(93.5%)
8,226,382
(93.7%)
6,817,952
(95.6%)
7,770,508
(95.5%)

Mail voters
4,920,000* (60.0%)*
6,753,688
(51.2%)
4,989,852
(48.4%)
5,722,465
(41.6%)
3,696,940
(41.5%)
4,105,179
(32.6%)
2,096,094
(27.1%)
2,739,155
(24.6%)
2,131,462
(24.7%)
2,078,065
(20.2%)
1,962,844
(22.0%)
1,950,179
(17.2%)
1,452,139
(18.4%)
1,434,853
(14.1%)
685,340
(9.0%)
913,574
(9.3%)
525,186
(6.5%)
549,077
(6.3%)
314,258
(4.4%)
366,694
(4.5%)

(P) indicates Presidential election, all others are gubernatorial elections

* Field Poll estimates
All other figures are from the California Secretary of State.

Total votes cast

8,200,000*
13,202,158
10,300,392
13,743,124
8,899,059
12,589,683
7,738,821
11,142,843
8,617,649
10,263,490
8,900,593
11,374,184
7,888,131
10,194,539
7,617,142
9,796,375
8,064,314
8,775,459
7,132,210
8,137,202

The Field Poll

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

#2491
Page 4

Table 2b
Trend of precinct and early or mail ballot voting in California elections (1978 present)
96%

94%

93%

91%

86%

86%
83%

Note: 2012 figures are Field Poll estimates. All other percentages
82%are official estimates provided
80% by the California Secretary of State.

78%

75%

75%

73%
59%

58%

60%

58%
52%

51%

41%
48% 49%

4%

6%

7%

9%

14%

18%
14%

17%

22%

20%

25%

25% 27%

42%

42%

40%

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Note: 2014 figures are Field Poll estimates. All other percentages are official estimates provided by the California Secretary of State.

The Field Poll

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

#2491
Page 5

Large differences between the demographic characteristics of this years voters and the states
overall registered voter population
Of the 17.8 million Californians currently on the states official voter registration rolls, 43.3% are
registered as Democrats and 28.1% are Republicans. Another 23.3% are registered as non-partisan
or no party preference voters and 5.3% are registered with another party. This distribution is the
first time that the combined total of the states voters who are not registered with either of the two
major parties exceeds the number who are registered Republicans.
A comparison of the demographic characteristics of the states total registered voter population with
those likely to be participating in this years election shows the following differences:

While the Democrats hold a 15 percentage-point advantage over the Republicans on the
states overall registered voter rolls, among those likely to be participating in this years
election, their advantage will decline to about 9 points, with 43% of voters likely to be
Democrats and 34% Republicans.

While Los Angeles County accounts for 28% of the states total registered voters, they will
likely represent just 22% of those voting in todays election.

The gender division among the overall electorate statewide is 47% male and 53% female.
However, in todays general election 50% of the votes will likely be cast by men and 50% by
women.

While voters age 50 or older account for an estimated 49% of the states total registered
voters, they will likely represent about six in ten (59%) of those actually voting this year.

While white non-Hispanics now account for 59% of all registered voters, they are expected to
represent 70% of the voters in this years election. Conversely, while nearly one in four (24%)
of the states registered voters are Latinos, The Field Poll estimates that they will account for
just 16% of the total in todays statewide elections.

The Field Poll

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

#2491
Page 6

Table 3
Differences between likely voters and the overall registered
voter population in the 2014 general election
Total
Likely
registered
voters
voters
Party registration
Democrat
43%
43%
Republican
34
28
No party preference/other
23
29
Political ideology
Conservative
31%
28%
Middle-of-the-road
41
44
Liberal
28
28
Region
Los Angeles County
22%
28%
Other South
35
31
Central Valley
16
16
San Francisco Bay Area
21
20
Other North
6
5
Gender
Male
50%
47%
Female
50
53
Age
18 29
11%
18%
30 39
14
16
40 49
16
17
50 64
32
27
65 or older
27
22
Race/ethnicity
White non-Hispanic
70%
59%
Latino
16
24
African-American
6
6
Asian/other
8
11
Education
High School or less
16%
20%
Some college/trade school
35
37
College graduate
23
22
Post-graduate work
26
21
Household income
Less than $40,000
26%
30%
$40,000 - $99,999
36
33
$100,000 or more
26
23
Refused
12
14
Source: Field Poll estimates.

30