SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS OF

IMPORTANT STRUCTURES IN SLOVENIA

Peter Fajfar

30. Convegno Nazionale, Trieste, 16. November 2011
Institute of Structural
Engineering, Earthquake
Engineering and Construction IT
University of Ljubljana
Faculty of Civil and Geodetic
Engineering
Scope
Important structures according to EC8

NPP Krko

Some problems related to seismic hazard analysis


Eurocode 8 in Slovenia
2005 Official implementation Paralell use
2008 Mandatory use

According to the National Annex, special ground
investigations are required for all important structures
(Importance classes III and IV)
Seismic hazard map

Seismic hazard (rock)
1,0E-04
1,0E-03
1,0E-02
1,0E-01
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9
P G A ali P S A [g]
p
o
g
o
s
t
o
s
t



l
e
t
n
e



p
r
e
k
o
r
a

i
t
v
e
P G A
P S A 0,1 s
P S A 0,2 s
P S A 0,3 s
P S A 0,4 s
P S A 0,5 s
P S A 1,0 s
P S A 1,5 s
P S A 2,0 s
Acceleration spectra

0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0
T [s]
P
S
A

[
g
]
475
1000
2000
EC8 - A
Importance factors
T 50 100 200 475 1000 10000

I
0,48 0,60 0,76 1,00 1,31 2,57

I
0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4
T 230 475 780 980 1250
Soil factor

SPEKTRI POSPEKA
Termoelektrarna otanj, lokacija 3 - UHA,UHF,UMA
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Nihajni as [s]
S
a

[
g
]
vhodni spekter
spekter na -3m
spekter na -10m
FAKTOR TAL
Termoelektrarna otanj, lokacija 3 - UHA,UHF,UMA
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Nihajni as [s]
S
a
(
i
z
r
a

u
n
a
n
i
)
/
S
a
(
v
h
o
d
n
i
)

-3m
-10m
MAKSIMALNI POSPEKI / GLOBINA
Termoelektrarna otanj, lokacija 3 - UHA,UHF,UMA
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 5 10 15 20 25
Globina [m]
a

[
g
]
SHAKE program
Acceleration spectra
Soil factor
Maximum acceleration / depth
Idealized soil factor

IDEALIZIRANI FAKTOR TAL
Termoelektrarna otanj, lokacija 3 - UHA,UHF,UMA
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Nihajni as [s]
S
a
(
i
z
r
a

u
n
a
n
i
)
/
S
a
(
v
h
o
d
n
i
)

-3m
-10m
-3m
-10m
Series
1
T[s] 0 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.25 0.6 2
FT 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 1 1
-3m
T[s] 0 2
FT 1 1
-10m
NPP Krko
Design
PGASSE = 0.3 g, PGAOBE = 0.15 g, NRG 1.60 spectrum
Applied at foundation level (up to -20 m)

PSHA 1992-1994
PGA = 0.42 g (free field)




Small local earthquakes
NPP Krko
Development of revised seismotectonic
model of Krko basin and update of NPP
Krko USAR and PSHA analysis (2002-2004)

Part 1 Development of Revised Seismotectonic Model of
Krko Basin (Geomatrix, USA)

Part 2 Update of Krko USAR (Geomatrix, USA)

Part 3 - Update of PSHA Analysis (University of Ljubljana)
PSHA 2002-2004
Performed by University of Ljubljana
with subcontractors
Environmental Agency of Republic of Slovenia
Office of Seismology,
Geological Survey of Slovenia
in cooperation with
Geomatrix, USA
University of Zagreb

Reviewed by IRSN, France
PSHA 2002-2004
Objective: to reevaluate and revise the PSHA to provide the ground
motion inputs for the seismic PSA

Computer programs: FRISK88 and EZ-FRISK 5.6, Risk Engineering, Inc.,
Golden, Colorado

Seismic sources and statements on uncertainty developed by three
independent earth scientist groups
Geomatrix
Slovenia
Croatia

Only near regional sources ( 25km) were considered

The methodology was consistent with IAEE Safety guides

PSHA 2002-2004
GMPEs

Sabetta Pugliese 1987, 1989 Weight 0.60

Boore Joyner Fumal 1997 Weight 0.35

Ambraseys Simpson Bommer 1996 Weight 0.05

PSHA was performed by using SB model
Other GMPEs were taken into account by a period dependent
attenuation factor
NPP Krko
Design
PGASSE = 0.3 g, PGAOBE = 0.15 g, NRG 1.60 spectrum
Applied at foundation level (up to -20 m)

PSHA 1992-1994
PGA = 0.42 g (free field)

PSHA 2002-2004
PGA = 0.56 g (free field), PGA = 0.38 g (foundation level)
PSA (T=0.3 s) = 1.58 g (free field), PSA (T=0.3 s) = 0.79 g (foundation level)


PSHA 2002-2004
Increase of seismic hazard compared to PSHA
1992/1994 mainly due to

Sources with larger M at smaller R included

Modelling of local soil conditions EPRI shear strain and
damping coefficients used


PSHA 2002-2004
Soil factor

ACCELERATION SPECTRA
PGArock = 0.5g
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Period [sec]
S
A

[
g
]
z=0m
z=-20m
input
NEK PSHA 2004
RATIO OF ACC. SPECTRA AT - 20m AND INPUT ACC. SPECTRA
PGArock = 0.5g
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Period [sec]
S
A
,
s
o
i
l

/

S
A
,
r
o
c
k


average (basic, EPRI)
proposed
PSHA 2002-2004
NEK - PSRC 2002
Final uniform hazard spectra
Free field - 10,000 years
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2
T [ s ]
P
S
A

[

g

]
mean
0,85
0,5
0,15
Group: ALL
NEK - PSRC 2002
Final uniform hazard spectra
Foundation level - 10,000 years
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2
T [ s ]
P
S
A

[

g

]
mean
0,85
0,5
0,15
Group: ALL
Some problems
GMPEs

Truncation

Ground motion parameter related to damage
GMPEs
Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have a
major influence on the results of seismic hazard
analyses

Large aleatory and epistemic uncertainties


Comparison of GMPEs PGA for M=6

Douglas et al., 2008

Logarithmic versus linear scale
Douglas et al., 2008
Logarithmic versus linear scale

Douglas et al., 2008
NGA GMPEs

vertical strike-slip earthquake, Vs30=520 m/s
Peru, Fajfar 2010
Soil factor

Comparison
NGA (AS, BA, CY)
Akkar-Bommer (AB)
CAE

Vertical slip fault
Peru, Fajfar 2011
Musson 2009

Truncation

Bommer et al. 2004
Acceleration peaks
YIH-MIN WU et al. 2004
Accelerations?
Acceleration is poorly correlated with
damage

Additional measures related to energy are
needed

Nuclear industry still relies on elastic
accelerations

Conclusion

We keep being surprised by earthquakes.

Earthquakes dont kill peoplebuildings do!

Only through collaboration and coordination between earth
scientists and engineers can the earthquake problem be
truly addressed.
Thank you / Grazie