Course Title: DATA, MODELS and DECISIONS

Semester: Fall 2014 Class: MBA Class of 2016

Instructor: Dr. Arif Iqbal Rana Email: arif@lums.edu.pk
Room # SDSB Room # 4 Telephone: 042-3560-8028
Office Hours: by appointment Secretary/TA Hafiz Abdul Basit

COURSE OVERVIEW
Rationale: Yes: a great portion of management is skillful decision-making. And as one
moves into higher ranks of management, especially in large organizations; this skill needs to
move beyond gut feel. Decision-making needs to be shared in teams. It needs clearer
processes that can be repeated, especially as part of systems, and/or applied to high risk-
return decisions. This skill needs to be trained to be efficient, yet accurate, within practical
constraints.
Methodology: Problem-solving skills multiplied by intense modeling practice builds ones
ability to generate useful insights in the face of limited time and resource constraints. Thus
our approach focuses on taking the decision maker through real-world model-building and
analysis. The initial phase of this course is dedicated to skill-building focused on
spreadsheet engineering. Once the power of spreadsheets has been demonstrated,
specialized simulation and decision analysis techniques are introduced.


LEARNING OUTCOMES

Upon completion of the course, students should be able to:
1. Enhanced problem definition and analysis skills through formal methods such as
influence charts.
2. General ability to use currently available computer-based spreadsheet tools to
improve shared business decision-making.
3. Understand available quantitative techniques such as decision trees and simulation in
order to model risk-related decisions.

MBA PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS & OBJECTIVES

1. Leadership and teamwork: Students will be able to assume leadership roles, perform


MBA PROGRAM LEARNING GOALS & OBJECTIVES
leadership tasks responsibly, and work effectively in teams.
2. Functional, integrative and strategic abilities: Students will demonstrate
understanding of the functional and strategic aspects of business and management, be
able to integrate across functional areas, and develop feasible strategies and action
plans.
3. Critical thinking and decision making: Students will be able to identify key
problems, collect and use information critically, and generate viable alternatives and
solutions.
4. Global perspective and flexibility: Students will demonstrate understanding of
global and multi-cultural perspectives within the local context and be able to work
effectively in multi-cultural settings.
5. Social, ethical, economic and environmental responsibility: Students will be able to
understand the broader ramifications of their decisions and assess the impact of
economic, ethical, environmental factors on the policies, strategies and operations of
the organization.
6. Effective communication: Students will be able to communicate clearly and
persuasively in writing and verbally, in ways appropriate for a variety of objectives
and audiences.
7. Entrepreneurialism and innovativeness: Students will be able to create, identify,
assess, shape and act on opportunities in a variety of contexts and organizations.
8. Managing pressures, complexities and uncertainties: Students will be able to
manage pressures and resource constraints, and think, decide and act in complex and
ambiguous situations.

Indicate below how the course learning objectives specifically relate to any program
learning goals and objectives.

Program Learning Goals
and Objectives
Course Learning
Objectives
Course Assessment Item
Goal 1 Leadership and
Teamwork
Not directly related to the
course objectives. However,
teamwork in project work is
encouraged.
Not directly assessed
Goal 2 Functional,
integrative and strategic
abilities
This is the main objective of
the course. Nos. help
different functions talk to
each other.

Goal 3 Critical Thinking
Decision making capabilities
The other main objective is
process based decision
making.

Goal 4 Global perspective
and flexibility
Not directly related to the
course objectives.
Not directly assessed
Goal 5 Social, Ethical,
Economical and
Not directly related to the
course objectives. However,
Not directly assessed


Indicate below how the course learning objectives specifically relate to any program
learning goals and objectives.
Environmental
Responsibility
being ethical is encouraged.
Goal 6 Communication
competency
Students have multiple
opportunities to demonstrate
their ability to communicate
effectively (#7)
CP and Group Project
Goal 7 Entrepreneurialism
and innovativeness
Not directly related to the
course objectives. However,
innovative solutions are
encouraged.
Not directly assessed
Goal 8 Managing
pressures, complexities and
Uncertainties
The course has a lot of
pressure.
It is aimed at handling
uncertainty quantitatively.
CP, Quizzes, Assignments,
Project, and Exam



COURSE ASSESSMENT/GRADES
The course grade is based on the following criteria:

Basis of Evaluation % of
Total
Class Participation 40
Quizzes and Assignments 10
Group Project/WAC 20
Final Examination 30
Total 100

Class Participation: Guidelines to scoring CP:
Though it is traditionally called class participation and is competitively graded, perhaps a
better word is Class Contribution. We believe that when we pool together the minds of
many it produces greater learning than could individual effort. To enable this (and to
protect against losing these learning opportunities), we provide some guidelines for CP
scoring.
There are two prerequisites for effective participation. The first is thorough preparation,
while the second is active listening. One of the following six grade ranges are recorded as
Class Participation for each student in each session:
1 or 2 Absent, or was engaged in crosstalking or whispering during the session.
0 Late, no participation, or was unprepared for the session.
0.5 A few basic case facts only.
1.5 Case wellprepared.
2.5 Preparation + Active listening (challenge someone's analysis)
3.5 Preparation + Active listening + Helped other students learn.



COURSE ASSESSMENT/GRADES
4.5 Added to my learning.

Quizzes
There will short surprise quizzes usually given at the beginning of the class. Their purpose
is to determine the extent to which you have analyzed the case and/or reading assigned for
the class. These quizzes could also test comprehension of material related to the previous
class.

Final Examination: Four hours; open books, open notes


CLASS-MANAGEMENT POLICY

RECOMMENDED TEXTBOOKS/SUPPLEMENTARY READINGS ( if Applicable)

Textbook:
For Spreadsheet Modeling
[P&B] = Management Science: The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets, 3rd edition by
Stephen G. POWELL and Kenneth R. BAKER, Wiley: 2010.














REQUIREMENTS (FOR PCO OFFICE)


Midterm Exam: Yes/No: If yes please specify the format (
e.g. if closed book/closed notes or
open book/open notes etc.)
Final Exam: Yes/No: If yes please specify the format (
e.g. if closed book/closed notes or
open book/open notes etc.)
Double Session: Yes/No: If yes then which session(s):
Joint Session (combined of two
sections):
Yes/No: If yes then which session(s):
Simulation: Yes/No: If yes, then which session(s):
Type of simulations (Harvard etc.)
must also be mentioned.

Video Recording: Yes/No: If yes, then which session(s):
IT Lab sessions Yes/No: If yes, then which session(s):
Additional session or review
session
Yes/No: If yes, then after which session(s):
Course Cap (applicable for
elective courses)
Standard Cap in an Elective Course
is 50

Please
mention if
you would
like to cap the
course at a
number other
than 50:
Yes/No:
If yes, then what should be the cap?:
Any other requirement (e.g.
laptop/computer etc.):
Yes/No: If yes, what requirement:
And in which session(s):





Session
No.
SESSION TOPIC/TITLE OF CASE READING MATERIAL
SESSION OUTCOME(S)
At the end of the session, students will be
able to
Module 1 Introduction
Session 1 Topic: Process Based Decision Making
Case: Professors Car Choice
1. Even Swaps: a rational method
of making tradeoffs
1. Skim: Powell & Baker, Ch. 1
"Introduction" (1.11.4)
1. Gut-feel v. system based decision
making
2. OCTROUI Framework
3. Even Swaps
4. Overview of course
Module 2 Decision Making with
Quantifiable Tradeoffs

Session 2 Topic: Inventory Decisions
Case: Saadia Rolling Mills

1. A Note on Production
Inventories
1. EOQ
2. Making tradeoffs
3. Intro. to Spreadsheets
Session 3 Topic: Introduction to Spreadsheet Based
Modeling
Case: Projecting Telenor Pakistan Profits
1. P&B Ch 2, pp. 26-343;
2. Ch. 5;
3. Ch. 4 (just in case)
1. Appreciate formal modeling via
influence charts
2. Understand parameters
3. Parts of a problem
Session 4 Topic: Equity Market Indexes and Asset
Management Companies (Mutual Funds)
Case: Sapphire Dairies (Pvt) Ltd. (A):
Where did the business plan go wrong?
P&B Ch. 6 1. Sensitivity analysis
2. Optimization analysis



Module 3 Decision Making with
Uncertainty

Session 5 Topic: Critical Fractile Method
Case: L. L. Bean, Inc.:
Item Forecasting &
Inventory Management

1. The Critical-Fractile Method
of Inventory Planning
1. The Newsboy Problem
Session 6 Topic: Decision Analysis
Case: Maqsood Sugar Farms

1. Decision Analysis
(HBS 9894004)
1. Decision Trees
Session 7 Topic: xxx
2.
Session 8 Topic:
Case: Canonical Decision Problems
(1,2,4, 6)
P&B Ch. 14
Sec. 14.114.4

Session 9 Topic:
Case: Canonical Decision Problems
(1,2,4, 6)

Session 10 Topic: Preference Curves
Case: The National Machine
Company (A) & (B)
P&B Ch. 14
Sec. 14.5 (Utility Functions)
1. Modeling Risk Averse Behavior


2.
Session 11 Topic: Simulation
Case: Product Development
Sequencing (B)
1. Note on Simulation 1. Introduction to Simulation
Trial, Scenario,
Session 12 Topic:
Case: Ski Jackets Production
Ch. 15 Introduction to
Simulation
1. Building a Speadsheet Model for
Simulation
Session 13 Topic:
Case: Ebony Bath Soap
1. Analyzing Simulation Results
Session 14 Topic: Overview
Case: Invivo Diagnostics