Euromonitor International : Country Sector Briefing
November 2009 Drinking milk products Philippines Euromonitor International Page i List of Contents and Tables
Headlines ................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Trends ...................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Competitive Landscape .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Prospects .................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Sector Data .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 Table 1 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Subsector: Volume 2004-2009................................. 3 Table 2 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Subsector: Value 2004-2009 .................................... 4 Table 3 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Subsector: % Volume Growth 2004- 2009................................................................................................................................... 5 Table 4 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Subsector: % Value Growth 2004-2009................... 5 Table 5 Milk by Type: % Value Breakdown 2007-2009................................................................ 5 Table 6 Drinking Milk Products Company Shares 2004-2008....................................................... 6 Table 7 Drinking Milk Products Brand Shares 2005-2008............................................................. 6 Table 8 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Subsector: Volume 2009-2014.......................................................................................................................... 7 Table 9 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Subsector: Value 2009-2014.......................................................................................................................... 7 Table 10 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Subsector: % Volume Growth 2009-2014............................................................................................................. 8 Table 11 Forecast Sales of Drinking Milk Products Products by Subsector: % Value Growth 2009-2014............................................................................................................. 8
Drinking milk products Philippines Euromonitor International Page 1 DRINKING MILK PRODUCTS IN THE PHILIPPINES
HEADLINES Drinking milk products is expected to post 11% current value growth in 2009 with market size reaching Ps37,498 million. Flavoured powder milk drinks recorded the strongest growth in volume terms in 2009 at almost 11%. Unit prices increased significantly due to the impact of 2008 hikes carrying over into 2009. Nestl Philippines Inc strengthened its dominance in 2008, with its value share rising to almost 60%. The forecast period is expected to show more anaemic performance with the volume CAGR pegged at 1%.
TRENDS During the review period, manufacturers attempted to increase milk consumption in the Philippines through health-focused advertising together with product enhancement through various flavour infusions. Nestl Philippines Inc spearheaded the drive towards higher milk consumption through its campaign emphasising that consumers should drink two glasses of Bear Brand everyday and not just one in order to remain healthy. On the other hand, Alaska Milk Corps powder milk aimed at children encourages them to drink their milk in order to ensure the intake of adequate nutrients for the body. It is also interesting that both of these efforts are geared toward presenting the health benefits derived from milk consumption. Flavour enhancements have been prevalent in order to make products more exciting for more frequent consumption. The widening in variety is supported by the launch of Anchor powder milk in vanilla and chocolate flavours. In fresh/pasteurised milk, Nestl now offers chocolate- and fruit-flavoured variants in order to keep up with the competition. The melamine scare in 2009 was detrimental to the drinking milk products sector. Even though the media emphasised that fact that melamine-contaminated milk was only sourced from China, almost all brands suffered some impact. Regular drinkers of milk have become discriminating in their purchases, choosing more prominent brands over lower-priced ones. Volume growth suffered as more affordable brands which originally catered to middle-income consumers attracted bad publicity. Furthermore, economic slowdown added a further complication to drinking milk products. Thus, drinking milk products volume growth continued to weaken in 2009 with a 1% decline. Flavoured powder milk drinks witnessed the highest volume growth in 2009, up almost 11% from 2008. The growth in flavoured powder milk drinks, particularly malt-based variants, was for the most part buoyed by the strategy of manufacturers promoting them as healthy and affordable drinks. There was also some carry-over effect from the Olympic year in 2008. Despite the declining price of inputs on the world market, drinking milk products unit prices continued to escalate in 2009. Looking at retail channels, there has been an almost 12% increase in drinking milk products unit prices due to the efforts of manufacturers to introduce more added value in terms of new flavours and more nutrients through fortification. Furthermore, the rise in unit prices in 2009 were in part due to manufacturers looking to recoup its profit margin in 2009 stemming from the rise in raw dairy milk prices in 2008. These product improvements and manufacturers strategies generally allow companies to charge higher mark-ups for their brands. Drinking milk products are predominantly targeted at children with the Filipino mindset believing that milk drinking in children provides a good foundation for their health. During the middle and latter stages of life, milk drinking is typically replaced by non-alcoholic drinks unless special needs arise such as pregnancy or bone disease. Industry sources suggested that some 65% of all sales of drinking milk products are accounted for by brands targeting children including dairy only flavoured milk drinks, flavoured powder milk drinks, and 69% of all powder milk drinks. On the other hand, milk drinks specifically tailored to adults include fresh/pasteurised and long-life/UHT milk and some powder milk. Flavoured milk drinks in the Philippines are all ambient in order to enable distribution in smaller types of retailers such as sari-sari stores and independent small grocers. It should be noted that because of the small Drinking milk products Philippines Euromonitor International Page 2 size of operations in these distribution channels, the purchase of freezers and chilled cabinets would require a huge capital outlay that could not be afforded. Thus, players limit manufacture of flavoured milk drinks to ambient formats. The market for soy beverages in the Philippines is limited to affluent consumers who primarily want a healthier beverage with higher protein and low fat content. Companies are trying to promote all soy products as healthier alternatives to dairy. Fortification is resorted to in order to keep up with the health benefits of milk such as the provision of an adequate supply of calcium. Nonetheless, compared to regular cows milk products, soy products were still negligible in 2009 since the products are mainly imported.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE Drinking milk products remains dominated by the multinational Nestl Philippines Inc which accounted for almost 60% of all value sales in the local market in 2008. This huge share translates to actual retail sales of more than Ps22 billion in 2008. This market dominance is highly attributed to the companys portfolio of brands which are leaders in their categories. Its flagship brand Nestl continues to dominate fresh/pasteurised and long-life/UHT milk while Bear Brand leads powder milk and strengthens its share in dairy only flavoured milk drinks supporting its own brand Chuckie against competition from Selecta and Alaska. Nestl Philippines Inc also saw the largest increase in share in 2008 which was particularly driven by Bear Brand and Milo. Alaska Milk Corp also registered strong value share growth in drinking milk products in 2008. The vibrant performance of the company can be attributed to its effort to improve distribution in order to make products more available to retailers. Advertising campaigns also helped to create top of mind awareness for Alaska products, while new, smaller packaging makes its products more affordable to middle- and lower-income customers. Thus, Alaska Milk Corp share rose almost half a percentage point to over 12% in 2008. The melamine scare raised the publics awareness of drinking milk products which could potentially cause harm rather than prevent it. Remaining price sensitive, consumers have become more brand conscious, opting to consume dairy products which are manufactured by more reputable players. Thus, this limits the shelf space allocated to less well-known imported brands especially those coming from China. Label checking has become prevalent in order to make sure that dairy products have originated from more highly- regarded countries such as Australia and New Zealand. Brands manufactured by major players have claimed share from less popular ones. Amid the brand consciousness, consumers continue to seek value from their purchases. As a result, the Selecta brand of drinking milk products manufactured by RFM Corp made a resurgence in 2008. The companys brands Selecta Moo and Selecta Fortified have invested in advertising in order to set themselves apart from other competitors by stressing their nutritional content. Priced 10% to 15% less than imported and major brands, these brands are perceived to offer more value for money and showed impressive sales growth in 2008 rising by over 20% in value terms. Multinationals continued to dominate drinking milk products with an estimated value share of over 70% in 2008. The prominence of these international brands can be attributed to their strong brand equity and distribution systems as well as their ability to differentiate their offerings from local competitors. In the Philippines, the reputation of a manufacturer remains important in the choice of drinking milk product, especially as milk is targeted mostly at children. Filipino parents are always looking for well-publicised brands in order to give their children a good health foundation. 2009 welcomed various product launches in drinking milk products from major brands especially Nestl Philippines Inc and Fonterra Brands (Phils) Inc. Nestl Philippines Inc continued to develop its Bear Brand in order to introduce products which are geared towards middle- and lower-income consumers. Leveraging the affordable image of Bear Brand, Nestl Philippines Inc tried to cushion its upmarket brand Chuckie against the rise of less inexpensive Alaska Yamoo and the resurgent Selecta Moo. Thus, Bear Brand embarked on the manufacture of fruit-flavoured milk drinks which are available in banana, green apple, and strawberry. Resurgent Selecta Moo deviated from the typical chocolate flavour and launched orange and strawberry additions. In March 2009, Fonterra Brands (Phils) Inc launched its flavoured powder milk available in chocolate and mocha flavours. In order to make products more affordable to budget-constrained consumers, manufacturers are turning to smaller packages. In powder milk, Bear Brand is now available in 80g packaging, while Anchor is now Drinking milk products Philippines Euromonitor International Page 3 offered in 150g packaging size. The newly launched Bear Brand in dairy only flavoured milk drinks was initially distributed in 110ml packages, while Selecta developed a 120ml packaging size. These smaller pack sizes are aimed at capturing lower-income consumers who are cutting down on consumption of dairy products because of the economic slowdown. These smaller packages also allow delivery to smaller retailers such as sari-sari stores thereby strengthening their share of distribution.
PROSPECTS Drinking milk products volume growth is expected to register better performance in the forecast period by posting a CAGR of 1% compared to the review period which saw a negative CAGR of -1% due to high inflation and increasing dairy unit prices. Nonetheless, with bulk of milk consumption generated by lower- and middle-income consumers, the drinking milk products sector remains volatile given the forecast lower disposable incomes in these social strata. The challenge presented by lower remittances from abroad, lower export levels, and a less vibrant BPO (business process outsourcing) sector will curb consumption for products which are perceived to be of less importance than rice and viand. As the economy is expected to improve, drinking milk products will post better performance in the medium term given manufacturers efforts to raise per capita consumption. As drinking milk is perceived by local consumers to be essential only in building a good foundation for childrens health, consumption is seen to be limited to this target audience. On the other hand, adults are seen to increase consumption during better economic times but reduce consumption when times are hard, as expected during the forecast period. Malt-based hot drinks is expected to continue its robust performance despite the economic recession. Retail volume sales are expected to post a CAGR of 8.7% over the forecast period. The strength of malt-based hot drinks will remain tied to the emerging preference of consumers for flavoured dairy products. Seen as more affordable and readily available than other dairy products, malt-based hot drinks are seen to show vibrant growth despite a slowing economy. The clamour from consumers for products that can provide the best value for money is expected to see prices increase minimally during the forecast period. The aggressive strategy of Nestl Philippines Inc in leveraging the affordable image of Bear Brand by launching less expensive products under this brand is expected to generate demand from consumers as well as encourage other players to price more competitively as well. Nonetheless, value-added products are expected to be more prevalent which will be expected to drive constant unit price increases. The bearish outlook for drinking milk products will cause companies to be more cautious. Manufacturers are expected to focus on the growing health awareness of consumers when promoting their products. With the sudden influx of reported diseases such as swine flu, salmonella, and others, consumers have become more vigilant when safeguarding the health of their children; enhancing their defence systems through consumption of more nutrients. With this, manufacturers are expected to focus on advertising which serves these needs. In addition, Nestl Philippines Inc and Alaska Milk Corp will continue their campaigns to increase per capita consumption by stressing the health benefits derived from milk consumption and the inadequacy of just one glass of milk to provide daily nutrition needs. The entry of Bear Brand in dairy only flavoured milk drinks is considered a milestone because fruit- flavoured dairy products remain largely invisible in the Philippines. With this, the product takes on the challenge of generating adequate demand for this product and gaining acceptance among consumers. Chocolate and mocha flavoured Anchor milk drinks are expected to have brighter prospects yet pricing needs to be competitive as consumers are not willing to pay more just for flavour variety.
SECTOR DATA
Table 1 Sales of Drinking Milk Products by Subsector: Volume 2004-2009