KI

IWIDSA Oct 1 to 15
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Notes by vineetpunnoose on www.kiwipaper.com
Content
Making India a Defence Manufacturing Hub 1
Reinventing India's "Make" Procedures for Defence Acquisitions 2
Pakistan's Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship 2
Settling border disputes with Nepal and Bangladesh 3
Ceasefire in Ukraine: An Assessment 4
Hong Kong Protests: What it means for the Chinese leadership? 6
Kurds sole 'boots on ground' against Islamic State 7
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Notes by vineetpunnoose on www.kiwipaper.com Page 1
Making India a Defence Manufacturing Hub
Tue, Oct 7, 2014
manufacturing, defense, IDSA,
The Make-in-India initiative of the government is focussed on 25 sectors that include
defence manufacturing.
India's current requirements on defence are catered largely by imports. The opening
of the strategic defence sector for private sector participation will help foreign original
equipment manufacturers to enter into strategic partnerships with Indian companies
and leverage the domestic markets and also aim at global business. Besides helping
build domestic capabilities, this will bolster exports in the long term. Opportunities to
avail defence offset obligations to the tune of approximately INR 250 Billion during
the next 7-8 years. The offset policy (which stipulates the mandatory offset requirement
of a minimum 30% for procurement of defence equipment in excess of INR 3 Billion)
introduced in the capital purchase agreements with foreign defence players would ensure
that an eco-system of suppliers is built domestically. The government policy of promoting
self-reliance, indigenization, technology upgradation and achieving economies of scale
and developing capabilities for exports in the defence sector. The country's extensive
modernization plans, an increased focus on homeland security and India's growing
attractiveness as a defence sourcing hub. High government allocation for defence
expenditure.
The strategic sector was opened to private participation more than a decade back. The
offset policy was introduced in 2006. The 'Make' procedure was introduced in 2006
to promote indigenous research, design and development of high technology complex
systems.
For sure, the change in government - widely seen as investor-friendly, decisive and
keen to improve the eco-system - is an important factor. But investment decisions are
made on more tangible considerations. Ease of doing business, security of investment
and intellectual property rights, and returns on investment are more important than
atmospherics.
The government seems determined to make it easier to do business in India but the task
is daunting. Many steps, such as those related to acquisition of land, labour laws and
taxation, require legislative action, cooperation of the states and a huge attitudinal
change in the bureaucracy. More importantly, all necessary steps need to be taken
concurrently. Disjointed efforts do not pay expected dividends.
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Reinventing India's "Make" Procedures for Defence Acquisitions
Wed, Oct 1, 2014
defense, Defence Procurement , IDSA,
Of the five principal categories of capital acquisitions permitted under India's
Defence Procurement Procedure
(DPP), two prominently outshine others as regards their potential to implement the
"Make In India" mantra invoked by the Prime Minister recently
1.
: (i) "Buy and Make (Indian)", where RFPs are issued to Indian entities for supply and
manufacture of defence equipment with
higher-than-normal
indigenous content requirements, leveraging technology partnerships with domestic
and foreign entities in the process; and (ii) "Make", being a hybrid R&D-
cum
-productionisation procurement process akin to traditional defence procurement in the
US
2.
and the EU while also being conceptually similar to "pre-commercial procurement"
3.
and "innovation partnerships"
4.
rapidly evolving under EU regulations in a non-defence context.
Pakistan's Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship
Fri, Oct 10, 2014
Pakistan, IDSA, international,
Insecure Pakistan in the backdrop of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan is faced with
the twin dilemma of international marginalization as part of fast receding regional
relevance and political and economic instability. These fears are heightened by India's
rapidly developing economy, political stability and fast paced modernization of its
armed forces.
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Within the above backdrop the firing along the LoC has three possible manifestations.
At one level it is an attempt to keep the pressure on Kashmir and create insecurity along
the border by the combined nexus of Pakistan army, ISI, the terrorists under the United
Jihad Council (UJC) supported by the separatists in the J&K. It is also to gain public
sympathy and support for the army providing it greater flexibility in the flawed
civil-military relations.
Second is the "K" factor. Over the last few years there has been a perceptible decline
in militancy and cross border terrorism. Kashmiri separatist leaders like Syed Ali Shah
Geelani are too old and Mirwaiz Umar Farookh too weak to sustain the so called
separatist struggle. Other leaders like, Yasin malik and Shabir Shah are attempting to
pick the gauntlet but have yet to establish their credibility.
Third is the impending election in J&K. Successful elections which could throw up
electoral arithmetic in which centrist forces become powerful power brokers would
result in a government that would follow strong nationalist policies thus severely curbing
the separatist space. The manner in which India reacted to the Huriyat leaders meeting
Pakistan's High Commissioner should have made absolutely clear to Islamabad that
New Delhi with growing international support will brook little or no dissidence from
these groups operating outside the constitutional process.
First, a swift, sharp and effective response backed by controlled escalation to Pakistan's
provocations. India should be in no doubt that Pakistan could attempt at escalation
misreading Indian resolve. Second, India should expose Pakistan's crass attempts to
rake up tensions in the subcontinent by adequately exposing its nefarious designs both
in Kashmir and rest of the country. There should be no talks till such time Pakistan
mends its ways and agrees to meaningful dialogue. Third, Kashmir post-flood reconstruction
work must gain momentum and fair distribution. The state administration must be
encouraged to show empathy in distribution of relief.
Time has also come for another round of dialogue with all shades of opinion in Kashmir
including separatist leadership but strictly within the confines of the Indian constitution.
In so far as dialogue with Pakistan is concerned it should be made clear that India wants
peace but will not bow down to such provocations.
Settling border disputes with Nepal and Bangladesh
Fri, Oct 10, 2014
IDSA, international, Bangladesh, Nepal,
While border disputes with China and Pakistan would be difficult to resolve in immediate
future given the intense rivalry and huge territorial claims, borders disputes with Nepal
and Bangladesh can be settled amicably in the coming years as the disputes are positional
in nature,
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India and Nepal agreed to address all their border related issues through a bilateral
mechanism. For this purposes, they decided to constitute a Boundary Working Group
(BWG) which would devise technical frameworks for resolving the contentious boundary
issues including disputes over Kalapani and Susta.
Similarly, the India-Bangladesh boundary has been completely delineated on the map.
The work for settling the entire boundary had started after the constitution of the
India-Bangladesh Joint Working Groups (JWG) I and II in June 2001 While JWG I
dealt with the issue of delineating the 6.1 km of undemarcated stretch, JWG II concentrated
on devising a framework for settling the issue of exchange of 162 enclaves and surrender
of approximately 6000 acres of adverse possessions between the two countries. In 2007,
India and Bangladesh conducted a joint survey of all the enclaves and adverse possessions.
Subsequently, in July 2011, a joint Census was conducted in the enclaves to ascertain
the number of population.
Subsequently, in September 2011 additional protocol to the India-Bangladesh Land
Boundary Agreement (LBA) concerning the demarcation of land boundary between
India and Bangladesh was signed and in February 2013, the strip maps of the boundary
were exchanged during the second meeting of the Indo-Bangladesh Joint Consultative
Commission in Dhaka. Unfortunately all efforts to arrive at a final resolution of the
boundary dispute came to a naught as India failed to ratify the LBA.
It appears that the onus of settling the borders disputes with Nepal and Bangladesh now
lies with India. To Nepal, India has given a commitment that it would discuss the issues
of Kalapani and Susta with Nepal and would endeavour to find a solution. Given the
complex nature of the disputes, both India and Nepal has to arrive at a political solution
to the problem. In this respect, India has its work cut out. As regards Bangladesh, now
that the Modi government, backed by an absolute majority, has proclaimed that greater
cooperation with neighbouring countries is its priority, it should understand the importance
of well settled international borders and ratify the LBA. Forty years is too long a time
to stall the implementation of an agreement which was designed to bring peace and
bonhomie between the countries. It is time India delivers on its promise.
Ceasefire in Ukraine: An Assessment
Tue, Oct 14, 2014
IDSA, Ukraine, international, Russia,
agreements outlined steps to de-escalate the mounting tensions including cessation of
military hostilities, exchange of prisoners, protection of Russian language and gradual
devolution of power. This key development came against the backdrop of a strong
military offensive by the Ukrainian troops against the pro-Russian supporters, while
the threat of a Russian military intervention loomed large. It led ' Verkhovna Rada',
the Ukrainian Parliament, to pass a law sketching the contours of local self-government
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in south-eastern part the country.
Russia
Russia's stake in the ongoing crisis has been to retain its sphere of influence in the
region. it would have been detrimental for President Putin to see pro-Russian supporters
get defeated by the Ukrainian forces. Ukraine is not Crimea and nationalist sentiments
even in the pro-Russian eastern Ukrainian cities run high. An intrusion could have
fast-tracked Ukraine's NATO membership and possibly led Moscow to international
political isolation. Therefore, a surge in military support that would allow the rebels to
fight back and establish new areas of control seemed to solve the dilemma. This move
enabled Russia to leverage its influence for policy decisions in Kiev.
The military setbacks suffered by government troops had left President Poroshenko
with few options. There was a real danger of pro-Russian separatists gaining further
territorial ground. NATO's refusal to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities and
inability of the 'West' to meet its energy needs against the onset of winter forced the
hands of President Poroshenko.
A ceasefire suits both the US and EU since the only way to stop an imminent Russian
military intervention would have been to send in NATO troops. But it is unlikely that
the 'West' retains an appetite for a direct military confrontation with the Kremlin. The
ceasefire allows it to continue to provide Ukraine with modest support without taking
full responsibility for events there.
Consequently, the ceasefire allows all parties to recalibrate their positions while keeping
the door open for a political reconciliation in this chess game of Eurasian geo-politics.
First, with Parliamentary elections around the corner and having previously labelled
the pro-Russian separatists as 'terrorists', it remains to be seen how much devolution
of power is President Poroshenko willing to give in to.
Second, will the current outline of autonomy be acceptable to the pro-Russian separatists
in general and the Kremlin in particular?
Third, the degree of cooperation with the 'West' that Kiev is willing to gamble upon
without antagonising Moscow. This is evident from its consistent push for an Association
Agreement with the EU. Russia's core interests in the Ukrainian quagmire remain the
same i.e. restore Ukraine's status as a neutral country, establish federal principles of
governance, preserve economic ties with the eastern part of the country and maintain
the status of Russian language.
Fourth, the agreements delineate the positions of Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian
supporters on the ground. This is likely to lead to serious complications over the
management of a frozen conflict.
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Fifth, the crisis is as much about Russia and Ukraine as it is about the geo-political
rivalry between Russia and the 'West'. The NATO summit has identified Russia as an
adversary while President Obama has labelled it as the second biggest threat to global
security after the Ebola virus And contrary to popular perception, the US may not
engage Russia to deal with terrorism in the Middle East despite the very convergence
of their interests. Moscow is not expected to oppose an initiative that tackles this scourge
since it is also in its interest that it be resolved.
Therefore, the Minsk agreements can be the first step towards finding a viable political
solution to the Ukrainian crisis. The key challenge lies in balancing Russia's core
interests with that of geopolitical calculations of the 'West'.
Hong Kong Protests: What it means for the Chinese leadership?
Sat, Oct 11, 2014
Hong Kong, IDSA, international, Occupy Central,
Hong Kong is slated to have elections for the post of Chief Executive (CE) in 2017.
However, there is a disagreement between sections of the Hong Kong civil society and
Beijing on how these elections are to be conducted. In a nutshell, Hong Kong wants a
free and fair democratic elections and not be told the list of candidates it can choose
from. Beijing wants that it vets the final list of candidates, fearing probably a CE, who
would be critical of government policies. Beijing's desire to manage the political process
in Hong Kong stems from the 'one country two systems' model whereby it continues
to retain its influence.
This movement is led by a group of faculty from Hong Kong University and a teenager
Joshua Wang Chi-fung, who has become the global face of Occupy Central. Its participants
come from university students and the middle class. Hong Kong business community,
with their business linkages with the mainland, have stayed away from the movement
and even criticised it from time to time for fears of its impact on their business. There
are three factors that deserve attention; First, the legitimacy of the leadership, second,
Chinese nationalism and third, the regional implications.
recent official policy guidelines such as 'China Dream' and the 'Great Chinese
Rejuvenation' are based on the revival of nationalism the 'China Dream' expresses
an economically, militarily stronger and unified China. However, the recent unrest in
Hong Kong is perhaps as big a challenge to this dream as the unrest in Xinjiang.
Political reforms in China have always been initiated and led from the top. The middle
and lower rung leaders take the flak for any failure while maintaining the hallowedness
of the top leaders. By challenging the idea of the 'China Dream', the protests in Hong
Kong is being perceived as a threat to the leadership in Beijing. The 'China Dream'
and the revival of the Chinese nation are now seen in conjunction with Taiwan's
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reunification with the mainland. For President Xi, Occupy Central is undesirable.
There is a pattern of Chinese nationalism whereby outsiders seem to become easy
targets if Chinese national identity is seen as being threatened. Beijing has drawn the
red line on Hong Kong. will not take much time for mainland to see a foreign hand in
the islanders' pro-democracy movements. China has also already warned not to get
close to the Occupy Central in anyway
China had reacted extremely cautiously during the colour revolutions and during the
more recent jasmine revolution that rocked the West Asian regimes. Some reports even
suggested that mainland websites restricted the unfolding of events in West Asia
The critical question is whether such development could lead to a hardened approach
by the Chinese leadership. China's territorial competitions of claims and counterclaims
with a large number of its neighbours on land and at sea are linked with its domestic
nationalism, in particular, the East China Sea. In this context, it remains to be seen
whether the leaders feel threatened and weakened due to Hong Kong protests and
western support for these or whether China would respond by hardening its security
posture in some of its territorial disputes.
Kurds sole 'boots on ground' against Islamic State
Thu, Oct 9, 2014
isis, IDSA, international, Turkey, kurdistan, islamic state,
US President Obama's decision to fight the Dawlat al-Islamiyah f'al-Iraq w Belaad
al-Sham (Daesh) by air has come under fire as the heroic Kurdish resistance in Kobane
(Kurdish for Ain al-Arab) threatens to crumble with mercenaries storming the northern
Syrian city, across the Turkish border. Daesh, meanwhile, got a morale booster when
the Pakistani Taliban (October 4) offered allegiance and asked militants across the
region to help establish a global Islamic caliphate.
Bitter last ditch battles are being fought by Kurdish men and women, including boys
and girls barely out of their teens, who are the sole 'boots on the ground' against the
Daesh. Observers feel Western air cover is ineffective
Turkey remains the main transit route for foreigners intending to join the Daesh, and
it is to Urfa (Turkey) that injured Daesh fighters go to hospitals for free medical care!
Kobane's fall will give the Daesh control over vast stretches of the Turkish-Syrian
border and provide a direct route to its units in the Syrian provinces of Aleppo and
Raqqa (headquarters of Daesh). It is to achieve this goal that Chechen commander Abu
Omar al-Shishani has made the conquest of Kobane a personal mission, especially as
US air power and ground action by Iraqis has made further progress in Iraq difficult.
Some analysts feel that to succeed, Washington must cooperate with the Syrian Kurds
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(YPG) as Kurdish fighters alone have proved willing and capable of taking on the
Daesh. But that seems unlikely as Turkey (a NATO member) is unwilling to strengthen
the YPG or the PKK.
The Kurds are heavily outnumbered - Daesh has about 9,000 terrorists armed with
tanks and rocket launchers - while Kurds have no heavy weaponry and are running out
of ammunition.
The Daesh offensive coincides suspiciously with its mysterious release of 49 Turkish
consulate employees. Many Kurds, including Turkey's PKK, suspect that Istanbul
helped Daesh's sudden progress against the Kurds in Syria by releasing prisoners and
allowing foreign fighters to cross its border. Other sources say Turkey may be unwilling
to oppose the Daesh due to its indirect threats against "Constantinople" (the old name
of Istanbul) in a statement of September 22, which urged followers to kill Americans,
Australians, Frenchmen and others by any available means.
Another consideration is the safety of Turkish soldiers guarding the tomb of Suleiman
Shah, grandfather of the first Ottoman Sultan, Osman I. The tomb, closely identified
with Turkish identity and culture, lies in Syria, in territory now controlled by Daesh.
Under the Treaty of Ankara, 1921, which created the new nation of Syria, the Ottoman
tomb remained a Turkish exclave, flying the Turkish flag and protected by a guard of
honour of Turkish soldiers.