A Response Surface Model to Predict

Flammable Gas Cloud Volume in Offshore

Modules
Tatiele Dalfior Ferreira
Svio Souza Venncio Vianna
PRESENTATION TOPICS
Research Group Overview;
Problem Description;
Methodology;
Results;
Conclusion and next steps.

Research Group Overview
University of Campinas (Unicamp)

Founded on October 5, 1966.

Has three campuses and comprises 22 units of
teaching and research



Research Group Overview
The Faculty of Chemical Engineering (FEQ) was
created in April of 1990 as a Department of
UNICAMP.


Today, it is divided in four departments: DDPP,
DEMBio, DESQ and DEPro.



Problem Description
Gas explosion safety is a concern in industrial
plants, particulary in oil and gas industry.
The offshore oil installations involve risk of
accidents with a major loss-potential.
Explosion of the
offshore platform
Piper-Alpha located in
the North Sea in 1988.
Problem Description
Explosion Risk analysis help risk decisions
to prevent and control accidents:
- Quantify the blast overpressure generate over
distance and time.
- Gas dispersion study.

Three-dimensional analysis using CFD
Mathematical models (in conceptual design)

Problem Description
The flammable gas cloud size in na offshore
module:
- Ventilation: wind speed and direction and geometry
of the module.
- Release: leak rate, direction and location and gas
density.
Cleaver et al (1999):
=
1/3

=

3

3/2

Problem Description
The use Response Surface Methodology
(RSM) to estimate flammable gas cloud size
in offshore modules (Huser and Kevernvold,
2000):

3
1 +
1

1
+
2

=
+

Methodology
Geometry and Mesh:
ANSYS
ICEM - 11.0
Unstructured mesh
Methodology
Release conditions:
- Natural gas composition:
Component Molar Fraction
C
1
0.861
C
2
0.071
C
3
0.030
C
4
0.013
C
5
+
0.010
CO
2
0.005
N
2
0.010
Pressurized pipeline
with average pressure
200kgf/cm
2

Methodology
Variables of Interest:


Ventilation and Leak rate: R (Cleaver et al.
(1999) e Huser e Kvernvold (2000))

0.03 < R < 0.3
Wind and Leak directions: (phi)


Methodology

Wind Directions:



Methodology

Leak Directions:



Methodology
Leak and Wind directions: (phi)
= 0 leak and wind in
the same direction


= 180 leak and wind
in opposite direction



0
45
90
135
180
225
270
315
Methodology
Leak and Wind direction: (phi)
Quadrant 01 = 0, 45 e 90

Quadrant 02 = 90, 135 e 180

Quadrant 03 = 180, 225 e 270

Quadrant 04 = 270, 315 e 360

0
45
90
135
180
225
270
315
Methodology
Design of the Simulations
Design of
Experiments 3
2

for each quadrant



Scenario Quadrant R
01 01 0 0.03
02 01 45 0.03
03 01 90 0.03
04 01 0 0.15
05 01 45 0.15
06 01 90 0.15
07 01 0 0.3
08 01 45 0.3
09 01 90 0.3
10 02 90 0.03
11 02 135 0.03
12 02 180 0.03
13 02 90 0.15

Methodology
Boundary Conditions and Solver Parameters
ANSYS
CFX -15.0



Region Bondary Condition
Surfaces No slip
Leakage Prescribed mass flow
Ventilation Prescribed velocity
Contour of the Computational Domain Relative Pressure = 0
Parameres Value or type
Reference Pressure 1 atm
Flow Regime Stationary and Incompressible
Turbulence Model k -
Advection Scheme Upwind
Time Scale Automatic (1.0)
Convergence Criterion RSM
Maximum Residual 1x10
-5
Mn. and Mx. Number of Iteractions 100 - 1000
Results
A gas leak
Simulation of an axisymmetric jet:
- Air
- Orifice Diameter = 2,7mm
- Mach Number at the exit = 1
- Air density at the exit = 2,25kg/m
3

Birch (1987)

Results
Simulation of an axisymmetric jet


Comparison between the experimental data and the result of the simulation of an
axisymmetric jet.
Results
- Air
- Average Pressure =
137,9kPa
- Mass flow rate = 0,15kg/s
Wakes (2002)



Simulation of a high aspect ratio jet


Results
Simulation of a high aspect ratio jet


Comparison between the experimental data and the result of the simulation of a high
aspect ratio jet.
Results
Wind Analysis
Superficial atmospheric boundary
layer:



=

Hanna (1982)
(01)

=

0

(02)

=
10

10

(03)

Results
Values of L, z
0
e p for neutral atmospheric and sea
surface

AICHE (2000)

Sea level: 0 m
Platform level: 55 m

Monin-Obukhov lenght (L) (m) > 100
Surface roughness (z
0
) (m) 1x10
-4
Power coefficient (p) 0.15
Wind speed profile tests
Results
Simulation of the wind speed
profile using equations 01 (a); 02
(b) and 03 (c).
Results
Example of gas dispersion simulation
R = 0.15

= 135
LFL: 5%

UFL: 15%
Results
Development of the Response Surfaces
Quadrant 01
Quadrant 03
Quadrant 02
Quadrant 04
Results
Quadrant 01 Quadrant 02
Quadrant 03 Quadrant 04
Results
Validation of the Model
Comparison between the CFD results with the values predicted by the
model considering random simulated cases.
Conclusion and next steps
A Response Surface Model was developed for
prediction of flammable gas cloud size in an
offshore module using two main variables: R e ;
The results provided by the model were well fitted
with CFD data within a tolerance of 50%;
The model is a simplified prediction form and can
be applied in early stages of the design when little
is known about the geometry or when the
geometrical model is not available;
Conclusion and next steps
Through the model every possible release scenario
can be assessed in a risk analysis, which is
infeasible in CFD simulations;
The proposed model can be very useful when
combining with Monte Carlo techniques to
calculate probabilistic cloud sizes.
tatieledf@feq.unicamp.br

tatieledf@gmail.com.br
Thank you!